ROFFER'S OCEAN FISHING FORECASTING SERVICE, INC.

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ROFFS™ OCEANOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS FOR THE DEEPWATER HORIZON OIL SPILL AREA
UPDATED TUESDAY 08 JUNE 2010 (17:O0 HRS)
Due to popular demand we are providing this update today.
See enclosed PDF analysis as the graphic is enclosed. Overall we continue to monitor the
distribution and movements of the oil and oil-water-dispersant mixture from infrared, RGB, visible
and synthetic aperture radar (SAR). Today we were able to use the RGB data to visualize the surface
oil which augmented the SAR from yesterday. However, we mostly used the infrared and ocean color
imagery (enclosed) today as it was very clear and we were able to see the details of the currents that
we have not been able to see since last week.
We have outlined in olive green surface oil that we have been able to see in the last 48 hours
from SAR and RGB imagery. Due to the angle of the satellite passes we were unable to visualize the
oil west of the Mississippi Delta that we observed last week. We were able to see the oil either
touching the shore or very close to the shore at Gulf Shores, Alabama. We also observed some
indications that the oil has spread all the way west to the Santa Rosa Island area (offshore of the
coastline), but the imagery is not conclusive. We would expect the oil to continue moving eastward
based on the flow of the water along the Florida Panhandle that we observed during the last 24
hours. However, the good news is that the winds today (from the northwest and northeast) support
holding the oil-water mixture offshore for the time being.
Southwest of Tampa we were able to see many water mass boundaries, but we need a longer
time period with clear skies to locate the center of circulation of the cyclonic eddy (counter-clockwise
circulation) located southwest of Tampa, Florida. Our best estimate is that the center of circulation is
near 85°15’W & 27°00’N. This eddy appears to be moving southward slowly and seems to be
“flattening” the large Loop Current eddy “Franklin” which now seems to have an irregular shape
suggesting that the eddy circulation is unstable. We have not colored the areas with oil in grey as we
have lost continuity with the exact water masses that we were following last week due to the three
days of cloud interference. We will not guess on their location. However, on-site reports along with
SAR data last week indicate to us that all the areas shown with “oil” contains petroleum from the
Deepwater Horizon spill.
We have been able to outline the tendrils of the oil-water mixture that originated from the
Deepwater Horizon spill site. These tendrils are shown in gray. Note that they are following the
eastern boundary of the eddy Franklin between 84°00’W – 84°30’N from 27°30’N to the elongated
egg-shaped eddy centered near 85°00’W & 24°15’N. It seems important to us that you sample these
tendrils for oil at the surface and at depth. We observed oil at the surface in a similar situation last
week along the eastern boundary of the Eddy Franklin and now that oil is circulating in a counter-
clockwise direction in the elongated egg-shaped eddy. The key to understanding if the oil is headed
to the Florida Keys rests in the area near 84°30’W & 24°45’N to 84°30’W & 24°30’N and west to
85°00’W & 24°30’N. We would like to have someone confirm the presence of oil and to see if the oil
is moving toward the Florida Keys using drifting buoys in the oil. We do not know if the area near
84°15’W & 24°50’N has oil yet. We do not believe there is oil there, but in-situ verification at the
surface and at depth is needed. Any petroleum based sheen, oil on Sargasso weed, smell of
petroleum would indicate to us that there is oil there. The tendril of the oil-water mixture near 86°00’W
& 23°45’N seems to have bifurcated flow with some of the oil-water moving westward with the flow of
eddy Franklin, while some is moving northeastward around the elongated egg-shaped eddy.
Of note it appears that the large Loop Current eddy Franklin is not separated from the Loop
Current at least at the surface as evidenced by the cooler Yucatan Current water is now providing a
buffer between the Loop Current and the large eddy. The large Loop Current eddy Franklin remains
unstable due to the many counter-clockwise rotating eddy flowing around the outside, the southward
motion and forces of the eddy west of Tampa, FL, and the friction by the west Florida continental
shelf. However, the apparent separation from the Loop Current is good news for the ecosystem and
people living in the Florida Keys and southeast Florida for the time being. We still are concerned
about the path of the oil that resides in the eddy southwest of Tampa, FL and its ultimate fate as it
approaches the area near 85°00’W & 24°30’N.
If you decide to use this analysis or the images contained within, please give credit to
ROFFS™. We still need funding support for this work. We suggest that you contact your emergency
managers, Coast Guard, etc. and tell them you want an independent analysis of the oil situation. If
nothing else as an independent confirmation of the information they are receiving now from others.
Remember that every fishing trip is important to use ROFFS™ to help you find fish.
Today we are also providing an ocean color image derived from the NASA Aqua satellite’s MODIS sensor. We
have provided a color palette that we feel reflects the color the water. While we will not discuss this image in
detail for the non-experienced image viewer, note the “ocean color” from the area of the surface oil plume
centered near 87°45’W & 29°15’N. With careful analysis one can see the very blue Yucatan Current, the Loop
Current and the separation between the Eddy Nelson and the Loop Current. If you want to learn about ocean
color from satellites, see the NASA website http://oceancolor.gsfc.nasa.gov/ and you will see more than
perhaps you wanted. Of course you can always ask us when you see us at scientific meetings, boat and
fishing shows, or simply around town in West Melbourne Florida where our headquarters are located.