Professional Documents
Culture Documents
1 For Private Circular Only |May 28, 2010 | IASL Research
India Advantage Securities Limited
Member of NSE. BSE.MCX, DP. CDSL
w w w . i n d i a a d v a n t a g e . c o . i n
Financial Performance of the Company:
FY2007
FY2008 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E
(18mnths)
Net Sales (mn) 7,751.41 15,205.34 19,303.29 24,375.00 30,965.16 35,907.54
Net Profit (mn) 391.97 884.63 1,155.68 1,345.45 1,733.09 1,938.74
EBITDA (%) 11.06 10.22 10.82 10.08 10.37 10.42
EPS 36.29 12.29 16.05 18.69 24.07 26.93
P/E (x) 15.15 44.76 34.27 29.43 22.85 20.43
P/BV (x) 7.16 8.36 7.02 5.83 4.86 4.01
ROE (%) 47% 19% 20% 20% 21% 20%
ROCE (%) 47% 29% 17% 15% 17% 16%
EV/Sales 0.96 2.63 2.10 1.70 1.35 1.18
EV/EBITDA 8.72 25.78 19.40 16.87 13.05 11.28
Source: IASL Research
Company Background
BGR Energy Systems Limited designs, engineers, manufactures, sell and services a
range of systems and equipment for the power, oil & gas, refinery, petrochemical and
process industries. The Company also engineer, manufacture, procure, construct, and
Key Management Personnel commission projects in those same industries, which involves turnkey responsibility,
B.G. Raghupathy Chairman & M.D including all civil works required.
T. Sankaralingam Managing Director
KEY DEVELOPMENT OF BGR ENERGY
S. Rathinam Director – Finance
V.R. Mahadevan Director – Tech. & H.R
A.Swainathan Director – Sales & Mktg
P.R. Easwar Kumar CFO
Source: IASL Research
2 For Private Circular Only |May 28, 2010 | IASL Research
India Adv
vantage Sec
curities Lim
mited
Member of
o NSE. BS SE.MCX, DP. D CDSL
w w w . i n d i a a d v a n t a g e . c o . i n
Company B
Business Division
Airr Fin Cooler
Divison
Oil & Gas Environment
Equipmment Engineering
Division Division
Electrical
Captivee Power
Project
Divission
Division
Power Proje ects Division: It provides turnkey EPC (Engineering,, Procuremen nt and
Construction)) and BOP (Baalance of Plantt) services for coal‐based Th hermal Power Plants
and Gas‐baseed Combined C Cycle Power Plaants typically o over 100 megaw watts.
Captive Pow wer Division (C CPD): It has been
b o of Power Project Division to
carved out
address the C Captive Powerr Market up to o 100 MW cap pacity. Today C CPD can addreess the
power need of various ind dustries like Stteel, Cement, Textiles,
T Paper, Pharma, Refinery,
Chemical, Pettrochemical, M Metallurgical etc. for their caaptive power p plants. CPD can n build
Coal Based Po ower Plants, Combined Cyclee Power Plantss, Biomass Pow wer Plants etc.
Oil and Gass Equipment Division: It designs
d and manufactures
m gas condition
ning &
metering skid ds, storage tan nks, pipeline piig launching & & receiving systtems, gas proccessing
complexes an nd gas compressor packages related to the oil and gas ind dustry.
er Division: It designs and manufactures
Air Fin Coole m A Fin Coolerss which cool process
Air
fluids and gasses used in thee refining, petrrochemical, and oil and gas in ndustries, and which
began operatting in 1994.
Environmentt Engineering Division: It designs manufaactures and provides p Deaerators,
Desalination plants, Waterr treatment plaants and Effluent treatmentt plants, which h have
n Power and Process plantss and other In
application in ndustrial plantts, and which began
operating in 11996.
ojects Division
Electrical Pro n (EPD): It dessigns supplies Electrical systeems and equipment
such as Gas Insulated Swittchgear (GIS) substations, Optical
O Fiber Power Ground Wires
(OPGW), Exttra High Voltaage substation ns and Transm mission Lines to Power Staations,
Refineries and Petrochemiccal plants, and which began o operating in 20 003.
Infrastructure Division: It is capable of building roads aand industrial buildings, and which
began operatting in 2004.
3 For Private Circular Onlyy |May 28, 20
010 | IASL Research
India Advantage Securities Limited
Member of NSE. BSE.MCX, DP. CDSL
w w w . i n d i a a d v a n t a g e . c o . i n
INVESTMENT RATIONALE
Power is a critical component for economic growth and hence economic acceleration
would greatly depend upon a commercially viable power sector. Demand for power is
continuously increasing across all sectors & hence in order to match this increasing
Capacity addition ~78,700 MW & demand, the government of India has launched the “Power for all by 2012” program in
~100,000 MW in 11th & 12th Plan which it targets an additional capacity of approximately 78,700 MW in 11th plan & 100,000
period MW in the 12th plan period. In order to achieve such an ambitious target, the government
is giving due thrust to augment capacities for power generation, transmission and
distribution.
DEMAND SUPPLY MISMATCH TO CONTINUE
Historically India has been power starved country with power demand for outstanding
supply. It is cleared for outstripping supply. It is clearly evidenced from the below chart that
peak power deficit has been continuously rising from the low of ~11% in 2003‐04 to ~16%
in 2007‐08. However slower demand growth due to slowdown in overall economy coupled
with higher power supply during Apr‐Mar’09 has resulted in drop in peak power deficit to
13.8%. Revival in the economy over the next couple of years would once again result in
increase in power demand which in turn could result in highest peak deficit. Latest power
deficit as on April 2010 is 15.1%.
Source: CEA, IASL Research
Huge Energy Deficit results in low per Capita Consumption of Electricity
800 Annual per Capita consumption of Electricity
in KWh
704.2
700 671.9
631.5
612.5
592
600 566.7
500
2002‐03 2003‐04 2004‐05 2005‐06 2006‐07 2007‐08
Source: IEA, Key World Energy Statistics 2008 Source: CEA, IASL Research
4 For Private Circular Only |May 28, 2010 | IASL Research
India Adv
vantage Sec
curities Lim
mited
Member of
o NSE. BS SE.MCX, DP. D CDSL
w w w . i n d i a a d v a n t a g e . c o . i n
Due to inadeqquate supply and
a distributio on infrastructu
ure, the per caapita consump ption of
energy in Indiia is much low wer when comp pared to countries like Canaada, US, Japan, China
etc. Higher peak deficit co
oupled with Lo
ower Per Capiita Consumptiion provides eenough
room for improvement & hence
h the demmand for poweer will continuo ously increasee in the
future.
Substantiall Power cap
pacity expan
nsion in pu
ublic and prrivate secto
ors to
throw up im
mmense opp portunities:
In the 11th plaan period (2007‐2012), the ggovernment is planning to ad dd about 78,70 00 MW
capacity of power to meett the country’’s growing dem mand. In the Thermal secto or, the
addition is exxpected to be 59693 MW byy 2012. Even if we considerr 60% complettion by
2012, we exp pect an investtment of $1600bn. During thhe 12th Plan, according to CEA, a
tentative capaacity addition o of approx. 1,000,000 MW is p planned, comp prising of 20,00 00 MW
of hydro, 76,5 500 MW of thermal and 3,400 0 MW of nucleear capacity.
India will add d 300,000 MW W of power capacity over the next decade, presentting an
Investm
ment opporttunity of investment opportunity of 4600 billion, according to a leading man nagement con nsulting
~Rs.460
00bn firm “McKinseey”. In a ‘Powering India: Th
he road to 201
17’, McKinsey said, this secttor will
present an an nnual profit po ool of $135 billion to $160 biillion, as the demand of pow wer will
increase by 300GW
3 by 20
017. “Of the total investm ment, $300 billlion is requirred for
generation, $1 110 billion for transmission, aand $190 billio on for distributtion.”
CAPACITTY ADDITION TTARGET IN 11th
t
PLAN(MW)
Type/Sector Central State Privatte Tottal
Thermal 24840 23301 11552 2 59693
Hydro 8654 3482 34911 15627
Nuclear 3380 ‐ ‐ 33880
Total 36874 26783 15043
3 78700
Source: CEA, IASSL Research
Energy Geeneration (BU) Grow
wth (%)
900 8
800 7
700 6
600 5
500
4
400
300 3
200 2
100 1
0 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Source: CEA, IASSL Research
5 For Private Circular Onlyy |May 28, 20
010 | IASL Research
India Adv
vantage Sec
curities Lim
mited
Member of
o NSE. BS SE.MCX, DP. D CDSL
w w w . i n d i a a d v a n t a g e . c o . i n
Plan Target ffor Generatio
on Capacity A
Addition
100,000.00
0
90,000.00
0
Upto 10th Plan
n
80,000.00
0 11th Plan (Plan
nned)
70,000.00
0 12th Plan (Plan
nned)
60,000.00
0
MW
50,000.00
0
40,000.00
0
30,000.00
0
20,000.00
0
0
10,000.00
‐
Thermaal Hyydro Nuclear RES
Source: CEA
A, IASL Research
Installed Ge
eneration Ca
apacity as o
on 31012010
All India Th
hermal Nuclear H
Hydro RES @ Grrand
Co
oal Gas Diesel TTotal (Ren
newable) (MNRE) Tootal
MW 82096 17056 1200 1
100351 41
120 36885 15427 156
6784
Percen
ntage (%) 5
52 11 1 64 3 24 10 1100
Source: CEA, IASL Resea
arch
TThe public secctor power eq
quipment man nufacturer Bhaarat Heavy Eleectricals Ltd (BHEL)
a
alone will add about 15,0000 MW, and privvate players w will add 10,000
0 MW by the eend of
2
2012. NTPC un ndertakes 17 pprojects totaling to 75,000 MMW capacity byy 2017. Particip pation
o
of private commpanies in the power sector is a healthy sign and this w would increase up to
o
one‐third of th
he total investmment by end off the 11th five yyear plan.
HUGE OPPO
ORTUNITY F
FOR THE BO
OP PLAYER:
Balance of Plant (BOP) invvolves construction of comp ponents required in power plants
except Boiler, Turbine and d Generator (BTG)
( equipments. Typicallyy, for every RRs 100
invested in power generation, another Rs R 100 has to o be invested in transmissio
on and
distribution, so
s as to effecctively utilize the power geenerated. Out of Rs 100 which is
employed in power generaation Rs. 60‐5 55 goes for th
he BTG (Boilerr‐Turbine‐Geneerator)
segment and tthe rest Rs45‐4 40 goes to BOP P Segment. Wiith the planned d thermal capaacity at
75,200MW during the Twelfth Plan peeriod alone, itt translates in nto a potentiaal BoP
opportunity of Rs 1,35,360cr ( i.e. ~Rs27,072cr of an average annual op pportunity).
CEA is targetinng a capacity addition of 1,00 0,000 MW in th he XIIth plan as against 78,0000 MW
which was plaanned in the X XIth plan. Of th his, the thermaal capacities pplanned (which h is the
opportunity sp pace for BoP eequipments) iss around 75,20 00 MW for the XIIth plan as aagainst
59,693 MW w which were plan nned in the XItth plan, implyin ng an increase of 20%. Accorrdingly,
the requiremeent for BoP equ uipments is alsso expected to increase correespondingly.
6 For Private Circular Onlyy |May 28, 20
010 | IASL Research
India Advantage Securities Limited
Member of NSE. BSE.MCX, DP. CDSL
w w w . i n d i a a d v a n t a g e . c o . i n
Potential for BoP Opportunity
11th Plan 12th Plan
Thermal Capacity (MW) 59693 75200
Cost/MW (Rs cr) 4.5 4.5
Total Thermal Capex (Rs cr) 268619 338400
BoP Share (%) 40 40
Potential BoP Opportunity (Rs cr) 107447 135360
Source: IASL Research
Requirements of BOPs
BOP used
SR BOPs Required BOPs Required
BOP Component during 10th
NO. 11th yr plan 12th yr plan
Plan
1 Coal Handling Plant (CHP) 23 68 70
2 Ash Handling Plant (AHP) 23 69 70
Demineralized (DM) water
3 32 69 70
Plant
4 Cooling Tower 41 145 148
5 Chimney 36 117 148
6 Fuel Oil (FO) System 22 71 70
7
Water Treatment Plant 36 76 70
Total 213 615 646
Source: CEA, IASL Research.. () Indicates no. of units
BOP Vendors
Sl. NO BOP Component No. of Vendors
1 Coal Handling Plant (CHP) 8
2 Ash Handling Plant (AHP) 9
3 Demineralized (DM) water Plant 5
4 Cooling Tower 5
5 Chimney 4
6 Fuel Oil (FO) System 4
7 Water Treatment Plant 5
8 CW System 3
9 Control & Instrumentation (C&I) 4
10 Switchyard/Switchgear (HT/LT) 5
11 Structural/Switchgear (HT/LT) 3
12 Fire protection System 6
Source: CEA, IASL Research
7 For Private Circular Only |May 28, 2010 | IASL Research
India Advantage Securities Limited
Member of NSE. BSE.MCX, DP. CDSL
w w w . i n d i a a d v a n t a g e . c o . i n
INHOUSE MANUFACTURING CAPABILITY AN EDGE
BGR has its own set of competitive advantages to differentiate its offering in the turnkey
BoP space. The company has a lot of in‐house expertise, particularly with a strong in‐
house design and engineering team (~53% of the total employees), which gives control
over cost, design and scheduling of projects. Besides, over the years, the company has
augmented its product portfolio through a combination of in house developments and
strategic technological tie‐ups with several international players. The company can
currently manufacture about 50% of the BoP package requirements in‐house, giving it an
edge both in terms of cost and lesser sub‐vendor management. Additionally, its proven
track record in managing equipment and turnkey projects helps the company to further
strengthen its position against new entrants.
BGR ENERGY ADVANTAGE
• Strong presence in Major Utilities in India – leadership position achieved through
successful execution of large projects
• Turnkey project design & execution capability
• In house Design & Engineering Expertise for Civil & Structures, Mechanical,
Electrical and C&I works
• In house Design & Engineering of major system components: Chimney, Cooling
Towers, Coal Handling Plant, WT Plant, OLTCS etc
• Latest CAD tools & analytical software
• ERP compliant
• Strong Project Management & Execution team
• Intellectual asset – Power plant engineering & interfacing experience
• More than 750 man years of power plant experienced engineering team
• Technology oriented – In house products with leading collaborators in the world
Major Order: BoP
Projects Contract Value (Rs cr) Status
CSPGCL
1633 Under Execution
2 x 500 MW Thermal Power Station, Marwa, Chhattisgarh
MAHAGENCO
1632 Under Execution
2 x 500 MW Super Thermal Power Station, Chandrapur, Maharashtra
MAHAGENCO
998 Under Execution
500 MW Thermal Power Station, Khaperkheda, Maharashtra
APGENCO
793 Under Execution
500 MW Kothagudem Thermal Power Station, Khammam, Andra Pradesh
APGENCO
694.9 Under Execution
500 MW Thermal Power Station, Kakatiya, Andra Pradesh
Grasim Industries‐CPP
44 Completed
23 Coal Chittorgarh, Rajasthan
TNEB‐CCPP Valathur (Phase I)
59.4 Completed
95 Gas Tamil Nadu
RRVUNL‐CCPP, Dholpur
210 Completed
330 Gas Rajasthan
APGENCO‐Vijayawada TPS
579 Completed
1 X 500 Coal Andhra Pradesh
Source: Company, IASL Research
8 For Private Circular Only |May 28, 2010 | IASL Research
India Advantage Securities Limited
Member of NSE. BSE.MCX, DP. CDSL
w w w . i n d i a a d v a n t a g e . c o . i n
Huge Capacity additions in transmission space to benefits EPC Players
In order to meet the regional demand‐supply mismatch & strengthens the existing
network so as to reduce the T&D losses, the government has planned huge capacity
additions in the transmission space during the 11th & 12th Plans.
Source: CEA, IASL Research Source: CEA, IASL Research
As seen from the above diagram, Inter‐regional transmission capacity is likely to double
from 19150 MW in March `09 to ~38000 MW by 2012, whereas transmission line length is
likely to increase from current 222,746 ckm to 293,690 ckm by 2012.
Source: CEA, IASL Research
Source:CEA, IASL Research
These capacity additions would entail huge investments over next 8‐10 years.
Investment in only transmission sector is likely to increase from an estimated Rs.1400bn
in 11th Plan to ~ Rs. 4600 bn in 12th Plan, thus providing huge opportunities to the player
s in the transmission EPC space.
9 For Private Circular Only |May 28, 2010 | IASL Research
India Adv
vantage Sec
curities Lim
mited
Member of
o NSE. BS SE.MCX, DP. D CDSL
w w w . i n d i a a d v a n t a g e . c o . i n
EPC SPACE
BGR has transsformed itself over the yearrs from being a mere manuffacturer of a ffew BoP
components to t executing Turnkey
T BoP projects, and now gradually executing
e full‐‐fledged
EPC contractss. It had won two major orders
o for the EPC of poweer plants. Onee of the
contracts is for
f the 1*600 0MW EPC of a power plant at Mettur,, Tamil Nadu,, worth
Rs3,100cr, and the second ffor the 2*600M MW EPC of a p power plant att Jhalawar, Rajjasthan,
worth Rs4,900 0cr. For both these orders, BBGR would be h handling the BoP package at its own
level, while the
t BTG woulld be sourced d from Dongfaang, China. Both the projeects are
progressing well,
w with the company alreeady having bo ooked ~19% of
o the revenuees from
these EPC pro ojects.
However, meaasures from th he governmentt to restrict com mpetition fromm overseas playyers will
make it difficu ult for BGR to bag EPC contrracts using imp ported BTG com mponents. Bessides, in
order to maintain cost com mpetitiveness, it is important to have an n own manufaacturing
facility. As a rresult, BGR enttered into a 20 0‐year license agreement witth Foster Wheeeler for
manufacturingg boilers. BG GR would sett up manufaacturing facilitties for boileers, the
technological knowhow forr which would be provided by Foster Wheeeler. The agreement
covers all su ub and supeercritical boileers for configguration of 300‐1,000
3 MW W. The
manufacturingg facility is exp pected to be seet up in the next 2‐3 years. TThis would enable it to
become an inttegrated EPC p player.
Sourcee: Company, IASLL Research
HEALTHY O
ORDER BOOK:
The Companyy has a robust o order book po osition of Rs 11
16 bn, 2.67x the revenue for FY11E
which providees good reven
nue visibility to
o the companyy. Power consstitutes ~93% of the
order book, while the cap
pital goods seegment contrib butes ~3% of the order baacklog.
International contracts com
mprise a mere 4% of the order book, majorly due tto the
ng executed byy the oil and gaas equipment d
contracts bein division in Iraq.
ORDER BOOK POSITION
P OF
O
BN
Rs116 B Order Book as on Dec. 20
009
Air Fin Coolerr Oil & Gas Equipment
Environment Engineering Electrical Projects
Power Projects
Sourrce: Company, IA
ASL Research
10 For Private Circular Onlyy |May 28, 20
010 | IASL Research
India Adv
vantage Sec
curities Lim
mited
Member of
o NSE. BS SE.MCX, DP. D CDSL
w w w . i n d i a a d v a n t a g e . c o . i n
Order Backlog Status as on Dec. 2009
9
4558 1453
Turnkey Engineering
Contracting ‐
Project C
Power
Turnkey Engineering
Contracting ‐ Oil &
Project C
110077 Gas
Supply off Systems and
Equipmeent
Source:Com
mpany, IASL Research
Order B
Backlog Statu
us as on Dec. 2009
Dome estic Internaational To
otal
D
Division
Rs In M
Million Rs In M
Million Rs In Million
Air Fin Cooler 1,0700.00 42.0
00 1,112.00
Oil & G
Gas Equipment 42.0
00 4,516 6.00 4,558.00
Environ nment Engineeering 341..00 ‐ 34
41.00
Electriccal Projects 333..00 ‐ 33
33.00
Power Projects 109,74 44.00 ‐ 109,744.00
Total 1115 530 45558 116088
Source:: Company, IASL Research
Customer‐wise breakup o
C of order backllog
TNSEB
24%
Rajasthan
n
SEB
38% o
AP Genco
4%
CSEB
Maha 16%
Genco
18%
S
Source: IASL Ressearch
11 For Private Circular Onlyy |May 28, 20
010 | IASL Research
India Adv
vantage Sec
curities Lim
mited
Member of
o NSE. BS SE.MCX, DP. D CDSL
w w w . i n d i a a d v a n t a g e . c o . i n
FINANCIAL OVERVIEW
TOP LINE GR
ROWTH
Revenu
ue EBITDA
A PAT
40,000.00
35,000.00
30,000.00
25,000.00
20,000.00
15,000.00
10,000.00
5,000.00
‐
FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E
(18mnths)
Source: IASSL Research
Margins s
seemingly to
o have stabiilized
OPMs havee declined from m 11.06% in FYY07 to 10.82% % in FY09. The fall in marginss were
seen mainly because off higher raw material costts, adverse reevenue mix (higher
contribution of exports (fixed
( price orrders) towardss revenues) an
nd adverse currency
movement.. The company has consciously changed its order mix and is now ggeared
more towaards domestic rather than export
e orders to mitigate the
t risks of vvolatile
currency movements. Wee expect OPM’’s to remain raange bound wiithin 10.08%‐1 10.42%
over FY10‐112E.
OPM
11.20
11.00
10.80
10.60
10.40
10.20
10.00
9.80
9.60
9.40
FY2007 FY2008 FYY2009 FY20
010E FY201
11E FY2012EE
(18mnths)
Source: IA
ASL Research
12 For Private Circular Onlyy |May 28, 20
010 | IASL Research
India Advantage Securities Limited
Member of NSE. BSE.MCX, DP. CDSL
w w w . i n d i a a d v a n t a g e . c o . i n
CAPEX PLANS
The company has a very high fixed asset turnover ratio, hovering ~20x (due to the
business model, which focuses on project management); hence, it does not require a
large amount of capex. The company plans to incur ~Rs50cr capex for the current
financial year, which would majorly be used towards the acquisition of construction
equipment. For FY2011E, the management expects to incur capex of around Rs50cr
(normal capex), along with Rs30‐40cr towards investment in heat recovery steam
generators, taking the total capex to Rs80‐100cr. Notably, we have not factored the capex
for the planned BTG foray into our estimates.
The major funding requirement for the company, however, stems from the working
capital requirement, as the industry it operates in is highly working capital intensive, with
~33‐34% of the sales being tied‐up in the net working capital requirement. Going ahead,
we expect the debt/equity ratio to hover at ~1.5x.
FINANCIAL CHARTS
13 For Private Circular Only |May 28, 2010 | IASL Research
India Advantage Securities Limited
Member of NSE. BSE.MCX, DP. CDSL
w w w . i n d i a a d v a n t a g e . c o . i n
GROWTH STRATEGY
Focus on large BoP contracts and EPC contract
o Effective Project Management skills and In‐house Design & Engineering
capabilities to access the growing demand for power projects
o Provides a competitive edge over Cost, Design and Schedule
Expansion of business & operations
Expansion of Products & Customer
o Build technological capabilities to execute large, technically complex
projects and services in Oil & Gas Industries
o Strategic alliances or consortia or joint venture relationships for specific
projects with established International companies
14 For Private Circular Only |May 28, 2010 | IASL Research
India Advantage Securities Limited
Member of NSE. BSE.MCX, DP. CDSL
w w w . i n d i a a d v a n t a g e . c o . i n
PEER COMPARISON
B H E L BGR Energy Sys. Larsen & Toubro
Net Sales (Rs in Cr) 26513.26 1930.33 40187.00
PBIDT (Rs in Cr) 5216.20 240.60 6373.97
Profit After Tax (Rs in Cr) 3115.17 115.57 3758.02
EPS (Unit Curr.) 63.64 16.05 64.76
PBIDTM(%) 19.67 12.46 15.86
PBDTM(%) 19.54 9.46 14.71
PATM(%) 11.75 5.99 9.35
Reserve (cons.) (Rs in Cr) 12433.22 491.90 15708.99
Face Value 10.00 10.00 2.00
Price as on 10‐05‐2010 Rs. 2399.35 per share Rs. 559.20 per share Rs. 1544.25 per share
Source: Capitaline, IASL Research
Note: Data as on FY2008‐09
Key Risk/Concerns
• Government led investment: Any delay or slowdown in spending will have
similar effect on the power equipment companies. This might adversely impact
the revenues and profitability of BGR Energy.
• Volatile commodity prices and currency fluctuation may lead to depressed
profits.
• Stiff competition from existing and new players may result in a further dip in
realizations.
• Any adverse changes in its working capital cycle will have a negative impact on
its cash flows and impact its debt profile.
15 For Private Circular Only |May 28, 2010 | IASL Research
India Advantage Securities Limited
Member of NSE. BSE.MCX, DP. CDSL
w w w . i n d i a a d v a n t a g e . c o . i n
BGR vs Sensex vs BSE Capital Goods
BGR Energy BSE_CG BSE_SENSEX
120
100
80
60
40
20
Source:Cline, IASL Research
OUTLOOK & VALUATION
With India facing a power deficit, the outlook for the sector is quite robust. During the 11th
and 12th Five‐year plans, the government plans to enhance power generation capacity,
which will drive the demand for company’s product thereby increasing the top and
bottom‐line of the company. All the user industries are in a sweet spot to gain from the
ongoing investment boom. On the back strong order book, from domestic and overseas
business, BGR Energy Systems is expected to post strong volume growth over next two
years. However, the valuations have run up significantly since we initiated coverage and
have outperformed the markets in the last quarter. We Initial Coverage on the stock with
a BUY recommendation with a target price of Rs 730 per share.
16 For Private Circular Only |May 28, 2010 | IASL Research
India Advantage Securities Limited
Member of NSE. BSE.MCX, DP. CDSL
w w w . i n d i a a d v a n t a g e . c o . i n
CONSOLIDATED FINANCIALS
INCOME STATEMENTS (Rs. In mn) FY2007
FY2008 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E
(18mnths)
Gross Sales 7,751.41 15,258.75 19,416.55 24,522.13 31,124.25 36,111.50
Less: Excise Duty ‐ 53.42 113.26 147.13 159.09 203.97
Net Sales 7,751.41 15,205.34 19,303.29 24,375.00 30,965.16 35,907.54
Total Income 7,754.78 15,270.84 19,620.36 24,692.07 31,265.16 36,207.54
Variable
‐ Increase/ (Decrease) in WIP (22.30) 28.79 (10.55) (12.43) 8.64 (9.31)
‐ Raw Materials 5,551.66 11,051.14 13,532.96 17,420.62 22,114.86 25,493.72
‐ Manufacturing & Operating Exp 529.37 1,711.69 2,315.42 2,925.00 3,638.63 4,278.47
Fixed
‐ Employee Cost 678.28 376.68 642.05 853.13 960.27 1,188.21
‐ Operating & Other Exp 157.14 483.63 734.46 732.28 1,031.11 1,213.55
Total Expenditure 6,894.15 13,651.93 17,214.33 21,918.60 27,753.51 32,164.64
Source: IASL Research
17 For Private Circular Only |May 28, 2010 | IASL Research
India Advantage Securities Limited
Member of NSE. BSE.MCX, DP. CDSL
w w w . i n d i a a d v a n t a g e . c o . i n
FY2007
BALANCE SHEET (Rs in mn) FY2008 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E
(18 Months)
SOURCE OF FUNDS
Equity capital 108.00 720.00 720.00 720.00 720.00 720.00
Reserves & surplus 721.14 4,017.47 4,919.01 6,074.69 7,420.13 9,153.22
Shareholder's funds 829.14 4,737.47 5,639.01 6,794.69 8,140.13 9,873.22
Secured loans 2,404.73 4,992.02 6,359.84 8,215.28 10,320.03 11,964.94
Unsecured loans 59.43 34.99 730.14 848.61 959.74 1,035.93
Total debt 2,464.16 5,027.02 7,089.98 9,063.89 11,279.77 13,000.87
Deferred tax ‐ 355.93 747.10 700.00 723.55 711.77
Minority Interest 15.36 26.51 27.96 21.57 25.35 24.96
Total liabilities 3,308.66 10,146.92 13,504.04 16,580.14 20,168.79 23,610.82
APPLICATION OF FUNDS
Gross block 633.21 733.64 1,245.17 1,805.56 2,258.21 2,589.81
Less: Accumulated Depreciation 249.17 206.42 268.06 394.45 548.01 729.29
Net block 384.04 527.22 977.11 1,411.11 1,710.21 1,860.52
Capital WIP 30.19 10.97 54.16 60.30 61.89 87.11
Goodwill on consolidation 4.59 5.87 5.87 5.87 5.87 5.87
Investment 2.80 1,514.04 5.30 5.30 5.30 5.30
Inventories 295.31 149.69 139.68 150.22 146.84 133.94
Other current assets 40.36 86.22 178.10 210.31 293.68 341.34
Sundry debtors 3,688.00 7,360.28 12,788.57 14,842.18 17,987.84 21,387.98
Cash & bank balance 929.02 3,070.30 6,151.50 7,210.78 8,957.21 10,369.93
Loans & advances 879.49 2,662.74 6,432.29 7,631.40 9,324.31 10,974.84
Total current assets 5,832.18 13,329.23 25,690.14 30,044.90 36,709.88 43,208.04
Current liabilities 2,669.54 4,838.10 12,551.31 14,121.10 17,204.92 20,352.08
Provisions 275.60 402.31 677.22 826.23 1,119.43 1,203.93
Total current liabilities 2,945.14 5,240.41 13,228.53 14,947.34 18,324.35 21,556.01
Net current assets 2,887.04 8,088.82 12,461.61 15,097.56 18,385.53 21,652.03
Total Assets 3,308.66 10,146.92 13,504.05 16,580.15 20,168.80 23,610.83
Source: IASL Research
FY2007
CASH FLOW (Rs in mn) FY2008 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E
(18 Months)
Net cash from operating activities (462.50) (1,696.43) 772.97 528.84 955.49 1,077.36
Cash used in investing activities (169.71) (1,631.44) 966.62 (547.57) (429.00) (333.92)
Net Cash used in financing activity 1,376.20 5,469.14 1,341.61 1,078.00 1,219.93 669.28
Net increase in cash & cash equivalent 743.99 2,141.28 3,081.20 1,059.28 1,746.43 1,412.72
Cash & Cash equivalents (Op Bal) 185.03 929.02 3,070.30 6,151.50 7,210.78 8,957.21
Closing Cash balance 929.02 3,070.30 6,151.50 7,210.78 8,957.21 10,369.93
Source: IASL Research
18 For Private Circular Only |May 28, 2010 | IASL Research
India Advantage Securities Limited
Member of NSE. BSE.MCX, DP. CDSL
w w w . i n d i a a d v a n t a g e . c o . i n
RATIO ANALYSIS FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E
(18 Months)
Liquidity Ratios
Current Ratio 1.98 2.54 1.94 2.01 2.00 2.00
Acid Test Ratio 1.88 2.51 1.93 2.00 2.00 2.00
Cash Ratio 0.01 0.59 0.47 0.48 0.49 0.48
Leverage Ratios
Debt : Asset 0.74 0.50 0.53 0.55 0.56 0.55
Interest Coverage Ratio 4.45 5.59 3.48 3.76 3.99 3.78
Dupont Analysis‐ROE Decomposition
PAT/PBT (Tax Efficiency) 0.65 0.68 0.66 0.66 0.67 0.66
PBT/EBIT (Interest Burden) 0.78 0.86 0.87 0.87 0.85 0.82
EBIT/Sales (OPM) 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10
Sales/Total Assets (Asset Turnover) 2.34 1.50 1.43 1.47 1.54 1.52
TA/NW (Financial Leverage) 3.99 2.14 2.39 2.44 2.48 2.39
ROE 0.47 0.19 0.20 0.20 0.21 0.20
Margin Ratios (%)
EBITDA Margin 11.06 10.22 10.82 10.08 10.37 10.42
Pre‐Tax Margin 7.81 8.52 9.07 8.32 8.37 8.13
Net Profit Margin 5.06 5.82 5.99 5.52 5.60 5.40
Working Ratios (Days)
Inventory 13.91 3.59 2.64 2.25 1.73 1.36
Debtors 173.66 176.68 241.82 222.25 212.03 217.41
Net Working Capital 135.95 194.17 235.63 226.08 216.72 220.09
Valuation Parameters
P/E 15.73 46.47 35.57 30.56 23.72 21.21
P/CEPS 13.03 43.74 33.41 27.93 21.79 19.39
P/BV 7.44 8.68 7.29 6.05 5.05 4.16
EV/EBITDA 8.98 26.75 20.13 17.49 13.52 11.69
EV/SALES 0.99 2.73 2.18 1.76 1.40 1.22
M‐Cap/sales 0.80 2.70 2.13 1.69 1.33 1.14
Source: IASL Research
19 For Private Circular Only |May 28, 2010 | IASL Research
India Advantage Securities Limited
Member of NSE. BSE.MCX, DP. CDSL
w w w . i n d i a a d v a n t a g e . c o . i n
IASL Research: E‐mail: research@indiaadvantage.co.in
Nilesh Pandya AVP‐ Institutional Business, nilesh.pandya@indiaadvantage.co.in 022‐6616 8800
Equity Research:
Sales:
Key to IASL Investment Rankings
Buy: Upside by>15, Accumulate: Upside by +5 to 15, Hold: Upside/Downside by ‐5 to +5,
Reduce: Downside by 5 to 15, Sell: Downside by>15
INDIA ADVANTAGE SECURITIES Ltd. (www.indiaadvantage.co.in)
Corporate Office: ‐ Om Plaza, Vasanji Lalji Road, Opp. Railway Station, Kandivali (W), Mumbai – 400 067.
Tel Phone nos.: 022 ‐ 6616 8800 Fax nos.: 022 – 2809 2800.
20 For Private Circular Only |May 28, 2010 | IASL Research
India Advantage Securities Limited
Member of NSE. BSE.MCX, DP. CDSL
w w w . i n d i a a d v a n t a g e . c o . i n
Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by India Advantage Security Ltd. IASL is a full service, integrated portfolio management and brokerage group. Our research
analysts and sales persons provide important input into our investment banking activities. This document does not constitute an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale
of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. The information contained herein is from publicly available data or other sources believed to be
reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such. IASL or any of its affiliates shall not be in any way responsible for any
loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. This document is provided for assistance only and is not
intended to be and must not alone be taken as the basis for an investment decision. The user assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. Each recipient of
this document should make such investigation as it deems necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of companies referred to in this
document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult his own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such investment. The investment discussed or
views expressed may not be suitable for all investors. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees may: (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and
buy or sell the securities thereof, of company (ies) mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other
compensation or act as advisor or lender / borrower to such company (ies) or have other potential conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related
information and opinions. This information is strictly confidential and is being furnished to you solely for your information.
This information should not be reproduced or redistributed or passed on directly or indirectly in any form to any other person or published, copied, in whole or in part, for
any purpose. This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country
or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject IASL and affiliates to any
registration or licensing requirements within such jurisdiction. The distribution of this document in certain jurisdictions may be restricted by law, and persons in whose
possession this document comes, should inform themselves about and observe, any such restrictions. The information given in this document is as of the date of this report
and there can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with this information. This information is subject to change without any prior notice. IASL
reserves the right to make modifications and alterations to this statement as may be required from time to time. However, IASL is under no obligation to update or keep the
information current. Nevertheless, IASL is committed to providing independent and transparent recommendation to its client and would be happy to provide any
information in response to specific client queries. Neither IASL nor any of its affiliates, directors, employees, agents or representatives shall be liable for any damages
whether direct, indirect, special or consequential including lost revenue or lost profits that may arise from or in connection with the use of the information. The analyst for
this report certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their
securities, and no part of his or her compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
Analyst holding in stock: No.
21 For Private Circular Only |May 28, 2010 | IASL Research