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Horizontal Analysis
Methods of financial statement analysis generally involve comparing certain
information. The horizontal analysis compares specific items over a number
of accounting periods. For example, accounts payable may be compared
over a period of months within a fiscal year, or revenue may be compared
over a period of several years. These comparisons are performed in one of
two different ways.
Absolute Dollars
Percentage
The vertical analysis compares each separate figure to one specific figure in
the financial statement. The comparison is reported as a percentage. This
method compares several items to one certain item in the same accounting
period. Users often expand upon vertical analysis by comparing the analyses
of several periods to one another. This can reveal trends that may be helpful
in decision making. An explanation of Vertical analysis of the income
statement and vertical analysis of the balance sheet follows.
Income Statement
Balance Sheet
References
Edmonds, C., Edmonds, T., Olds, P., & Schneider, N. (2006). "Fundamental
Managerial Accounting Concepts." 3rd ed. New York: McGraw-Hill Irwin.
• Financial analysis
• Horizontal financial statements analysis
• Vertical financial statements analysis
• Cross sectional financial statement analysis
Introduction
Note: The financial statement to be used for the purpose of analysis should
be the audited ones. The audited financial statements give the analyst the
auditor’s statement as to whether the records represent a fair view of the
company’s affairs.
As basis of Analysis, the analyst may seek variables which seem to improve
or deteriorate and bring a challenge to the stakeholders in their various
decisions. Example from the previous table one can ask the following
questions?
Individual Assignment 1:
From the Exhibit 1, prepare horizontal analysis for the income statement of
TeleTalk (T) Ltd and comment on the relevant changes. Associate the
comments from the balance sheet and income statement you have
established, what is your general comment on the company undertakings in
the past three years of operation.
• In the balance sheet, for example, the assets as well as the liabilities
and equity are each expressed as a 100% and each item in these
categories is expressed as a percentage of the respective totals.
• In the common size income statement, turnover is expressed as 100%
and every item in the income statement is expressed as a percentage
of turnover (sales).
Exercise 2:
Introduction
Sensitivity Analysis (SA) is the study of how the variation in the output of a model
(numerical or otherwise) can be apportioned, qualitatively or quantitatively, to
different sources of variation.
Sensitivity Analysis (SA) aims to ascertain how the model depends upon the
information fed into it, upon its structure and upon the framing assumptions made to
build it. This information can be invaluable, as:
The company may vary all the items by 62% favorable, given the risks index
consideration.
Other considerations may be backed on the market responses and returns. The
returns for this case may be classified as:
• Most pessimistic
• Most likely
• Ratio
• Types of Ratios
• Liquidity Ratios
• Asset management/Activity ratios
• Financial Leverage/Gearing ratios
• Profitability ratios
• Market valuation ratios
• Ratio limitations
Consider a current ratio of 2:1. This means that for every 1 monetary value
of current liabilities there are 2 of assets. However each business is different
and each has different working capital requirements. From this ratio, we
cannot make any comments about the liquidity of the business, whether it
carries too much or too little working capital.
Types of Ratios
Note that throughout this section, ratios are derived from Exhibit one in
Session 1 of this chapter
A: Liquidity Ratios
Current Ratio
The Current Ratio expresses the relationship between the firm’s current
assets and its current liabilities.
Current assets normally includes cash, marketable securities, accounts
receivable and inventories. Current liabilities consist of accounts payable,
short term notes payable, short-term loans, current maturities of long term
debt, accrued income taxes and other accrued expenses (wages).
The rule of thumb says that the current ratio should be at least 2, that is the
current assets should meet current liabilities at least twice.
What does the calculated ratio tells us? In 2000, the company only had 85
cents worth of current assets for every dollar of liabilities. This grew to 92
cents in 2002 indicating increasing trend on liquidity, however the company
is still unable to support its short-term debt from its currents assets.
insert
Clearly this ratio will be lower than the current ratio, but the difference
between the two (the gap) will indicate the extent to which current assets
consist of stock.
Unless the business continues to generate high turnover, assets will be idle
as it is impossible to buy and sell fixed assets continuously as turnover
changes. Activity ratios are therefore used to assess how active various
assets are in the business.
• The shorter the average collection period, the better the quality of
debtors, as a short collection period implies the prompt payment by
debtors.
• The average collection period should be compared against the firm’s
credit terms and policy to judge its credit and collection efficiency.
• An excessively long collection period implies a very liberal and
inefficient credit and collection performance.
• The delay in collection of cash impairs the firm’s liquidity. On the other
hand, too low a collection period is not necessarily favourable, rather it
Inventory Turnover
This ratio measures the stock in relation to turnover in order to determine
how often the stock turns over in the business.
It indicates the efficiency of the firm in selling its product. It is calculated by
dividing he cost of goods sold by the average inventory.
The ratio shows a relatively high stock turnover which would seem to
suggest that the business deals in fast moving consumer goods.
• The company turned over stock every 24 days in 2000 and every 28
days in 2002.
• The trend shows a marginal increase in days which indicates a slow
down of stock turnover.
• The high stock turnover ratio would also tend to indicate that there
was little chance of the firm holding damaged or obsolete stock.
• Generally, the higher the firm’s total asset turnover, the more
efficiently its assets have been utilised.
• Generally, high fixed assets turnovers are preferred since they indicate
a better efficiency in fixed assets utilisation.
• The ratios indicate the degree to which the activities of a firm are
supported by creditors’ funds as opposed to owners.
• The relationship of owner’s equity to borrowed funds is an important
indicator of financial strength.
• The debt requires fixed interest payments and repayment of the loan
and legal action can be taken if any amounts due are not paid at the
Equity Ratio
The equity ratio is calculated as follows:
This indicates that only 32.1% of the total assets in 2002 is supplied by the
ordinary stockholders and this has shown a slight decrease from 32.8% in
2000.
Debt Ratio
This is the measure of financial strength that reflects the proportion of
capital which has been funded by debt, including preference shares.
• The debt to equity ratio shows that for every 1 dollar of shareholders
funds in 2002 there was 2.12 dollars of debt. This compares to 2.05
dollars in 2000. This ratio is extremely high and indicates the financial
weakness of the business.
• The times interest earned shows how many times the business can
pay its interest bills from profit earned.
• Present and prospective loan creditors such as bondholders, are vitally
interested to know how adequate the interest payments on their loans
are covered by the earnings available for such payments.
• Owners, managers and directors are also interested in the ability of
the business to service the fixed interest charges on outstanding debt.
D: Profitability Ratios
Profitability is the ability of a business to earn profit over a period of time.
Although the profit figure is the starting point for any calculation of cash
flow, as already pointed out, profitable companies can still fail for a lack of
cash.
• A company should earn profits to survive and grow over a long period
of time.
• Profits are essential, but it would be wrong to assume that every
action initiated by management of a company should be aimed at
maximising profits, irrespective of social consequences.
• The ratio above shows the increasing trend in the gross profit since the
ratio has improved from 15.2% in 2000 to 20.3% on 2002. This
indicates that the rate in increase in cost of goods sold are less than
rate of increase in sales, hence the increased efficiency.
The net margin ratio shows that the margin is fairly stable over time with
slight improvement to 1.73% in 2001. However, to know how well the firm is
performing one has to compare this ratio with the industry average or a firm
dealing in a similar business.
Investors have placed funds with the managers of the business. The
managers used the funds to purchase assets which will be used to generate
returns. If the return is not better than the investors can achieve elsewhere,
they will instruct the managers to sell the assets and they will invest
elsewhere. The managers lose their jobs and the business liquidates.
• The ratio indicates that there is increase in the ROI from 8.38% in
2000 to 8.95% in 2002.
Exercises
Notice a healthy increase in the yield from 2000 to 2002. The main reason
for this is that the dividend per share increased while at the same time, the
price of a share dropped.
This is fairly unusual because share prices usually increase when dividends
increase. However there could be number of reasons why this has happened,
either due to the economy or to mismanagement, leading to a loss of faith in
the stock market or in this particular stock.
Normally a very high dividend yield signals potential financial difficulties and
possible dividend payout cut. The dividend per share is merely the total
dividend divided by the number of shares issued. The price per share is the
market price of the share at the end of the financial year.
1. High P/E generally reflects lower risk and/or higher growth prospects
for earnings.
2. The above ratio shows that the shares were traded at a much higher
premium in 2000 than were in 2002. In 2000 the price was 26.8 times
higher than earnings while in 2002, the price was only 12 times
higher.
Dividend Cover
• This ratio measures the extent of earnings that are being paid out in
the form of dividends, i.e. how many times the dividends paid are
covered by earnings (similar to times interest earned ratio discussed
above).
• A higher cover would indicate that a larger percentage of earnings are
being retained and re-invested in the business while a lower dividend
cover would indicate the converse.
Exercise:
1. In your own words, comment on the market value ratios in our
example. In your answer, assume the following industry average for
2002
Dividend yield: 3.2%
P/E Ratio: 12.8 times.
2. What is the purpose of calculating the market value ratio?
3. What actions can directors take to ensure a stable dividend yield
growth over time?
4. The P/E ratio indicates the premium an investor is prepared to
pay for a share. Discuss?
5. Explain what activities can cause the dividend payout ratio to
change.
Trend analysis: Is the type of analysis in which the information for a single
company is compared over time.
Over the course of the business cycle, sales and profitability may expand
and contract, so the ratio analysis for one year may not present an accurate
picture of the firm.
Therefore we look at trend analysis of performance over a number of years.
However without industry comparisons even trend analysis may not present
a complete picture.
• Number of subscribers
• Investment in fixed assets
• Investment in total assets
• Sales
• Charging rates
Module 1.4: Learning Activity for Financial Statement Analysis and Interpretation
The eight per cent debentures are redeemable in instalments and the final
instalment is due to be paid in 2003.
Learning Objectives
At the end of this session, students should be able to:
• Financial distress
• Costs of financial distress
• Indicators for financial distress
Financial Distress
Financial distress is defined as a condition where obligations are not met or
are met with difficulty.
A major disadvantage for a firm taking on higher levels of debt is that it
increases the risk of financial distress, and ultimately liquidation. This may
have detrimental effect on both the equity and debt holders.
• The risk of incurring the costs of financial distress has a negative effect
on a firm's value which offsets the value of tax relief of increasing debt
levels.
• These costs become considerable with very high gearing. Even if a firm
manages to avoid liquidation its relationships with suppliers,
customers, employees and creditors may be seriously damaged.
• Suppliers providing goods and services on credit are likely to reduce
the generosity of their terms, or even stop supplying altogether, if
they believe that there is an increased chance of the firm not being in
existence in a few months' time.
Bankers and other lenders will tend to look upon a request for further
finance from a financially distressed company with a prejudiced eye – taking
a safety-first approach – and this can continue for many years after the
crisis has passed.
Management find that much of their time is spent "fire fighting" – dealing
with day-to-day liquidity problems – and focusing on short-term cash flow
rather than long-term shareholder wealth.
The indirect costs associated with financial distress can be much more
significant than the more obvious direct costs such as paying for lawyers,
accountants and for refinancing programs. Some of these indirect and direct
costs are shown in the table below:
The important issue is at what point does the probability of financial distress
so increase the cost of equity and debt that it outweighs the benefit of the
tax relief on debt?
Financial Analysis may be used to view some of the indicators of the financial
distress. Important ratios to be considered include:
• Liquidity ratios
• Debt management ratios
• Asset utilization ratios
The ratios provide indicators on whether the firm is facing financial problems
in meeting both its current and long term debt obligations. Other indicators
are as discussed below.
Qazi Ashfaq | Financial Statement Analysis 31
Some Factors Influencing the Risk of Financial Distress Costs
The susceptibility to financial distress varies from company to company.
Here are some influences:
Discussion 6
Post your response in the discussions area. (See the procedure for
discussions in Course Info.)
Discuss whether there is any rationale to study the financial distress
of telecommunication companies:
1. Explain what are the possible costs for the ICT industry given
the financial distress situation?
2. What action will the regulators take if in the market where the
firm(s) encountered financial distress? Express your answer
based on two nature of economies (monopoly and competitive
market)
3. You are given a set of financial statements including the
balance sheet and the income statement of S.O.SONEY for the
three consecutive years. All data is in million shillings.
• Demand
• Supply
• Financial statements information
• Internal users of financial statements
• External users of financial statements
These parties can also be grouped into internal versus external users.
Internal users consist of managers and employees while external users
consist of the rest in the above list. These parties demand financial
statement information:
• To Facilitate decision-making,
• For Monitoring of management, or
• To Interpret contracts or agreements that include provisions based on
such information.
An Illustration
Consider approaches aiming to detect mis-priced securities by a fundamental
analysis approach as opposed to a technical analysis approach. The former
approach examines firm,-industry-and – economy-related information;
financial statements play a major role in this approach. An important aspect
is predicting the timing, amounts, and uncertainties of the future cash flows
of the firm. In contrast, technical analysis aims to detect mispriced securities
by examining trends in security prices, security trading volume, and other
related variables; financial statement information typically is not examined
When predicting the timing, amounts, and uncertainties of future cash flows
of the firm, the past record of management in relation to the resources
under its control can be a critical variable. The analysis undertaken for
decisions by shareholders and investors can be done by those parties
themselves or by intermediaries such as security analysts and investment
advisors.
Managers
One source of the demand for financial statement information by managers
arises from contracts that include provisions based on financial statement
variables. e.g. Management incentive contracts. When structuring
agreements between the firm and other entities, management may include
contractual terms based on financial statement variables.
Employees
Employees have several motivations. They have a vested interest in the
continued and profitable operations of their firm. Financial statements are an
important source of information about current and potential future
profitability and solvency. They may also need them to monitor the viability
of their pension plans.
Customers
The relationship between a firm and its customers can extend over many
years. In some cases, these relationships take the form of legal obligations
associated with guarantees, warranties, or deferred benefits. In other cases,
the long-term association is based on continued attention to customer
service.
Other Parties
The set of parties that make demands of the financial statements
information of corporations is open-ended. Diverse parties such as
academicians, environmental protection organizations, and other special
interest lobbying groups approach corporations for details relating to their
financial and other affairs.
Owners/Shareholders
The interest of these parties in financial statement information lies in the
fact that it is their money that is invested in the firm. They would like to
ensure that they are getting a good return on their investment. This is
assessed by how much profit the firm is making and whether their
investment is increasing in value. For shareholders in companies this means
they will get good dividend and the market value of their shares will increase
and they can make capital gains if these were sold.
Management
They are responsible to the owners/shareholders in carrying out policies and
directives, and in running the business efficiently and effectively. They
Banks/Loan companies
This group is interested not only in the firm's profitability but also in its
ability to repay loans. Managers would prefer using loaned funds for a longer
period.
Employees
They are part of the organization and feel that their efforts contributed to
the firm's profits. They would therefore prefer to be given bonuses and
salary increases. This also increases expenses to the firm.
Suppliers
Suppliers usually extend credit to the firm for goods supplied and they want
to be assured of timely payments of accounts due. Their interest will be
similar to that of the banks and loan companies.
Prospective Investors/Analysts
These are interested in a firm's profitability and potential for growth.
Prospective investors rely on financial statements information in making
their investment decisions. In giving advice to prospective and existing
investors, analysts also make use of financial statements information.
Government
Various ministries and departments have interest in the firm's payments of
taxes. Also see the enactment of laws for the industry and provision of social
services to the public. The government may also want to ensure that the
firm complies with laws on, for example, wage payments and employee
benefits.
Discussion 4
Post your response in the discussions area. (See the procedure for
discussions in Course Info.)
Session to be Covered
Session 1: Preparation of the Income Statement, Balance sheet and Cash
flow statements.
• Financial Statements
• Income statement
• Balance sheet statement
• Cash flow statement
• Revenue/sales determination
• Cost of goods sold
• Manufacturing overheads
• Sources of funds
• Uses of funds
Basic Definitions
Financial statement
A report of basic accounting data that helps investors understand a firm's
financial history and activities.
Income statement (statement of operations)
A statement showing the revenues, expenses, and income (the difference
between revenues and expenses) of a corporation over some period of time.
Balance sheet
Also called the statement of financial condition, it is a summary of a
company's assets, liabilities, and owners' equity.
The document distributed at the annual meeting to shareholders of record
who wish to vote their shares in person.
Cash flow statement
Statement showing earnings before depreciation, amortization, and non-
cash charges. Sometimes called cash earnings. Cash flow from operations
indicates the ability to pay dividends.
Revenues/Sales
This item carries the revenues/sales generations of the company. Sales
consist of Cash Sales (cash is paid at the time of sale) or Credit Sales (Cash
paid later). The sales/revenue is made up with the following items:
Note: Other Incomes/Revenues results from the revenues which are not
core business of the company. Such revenues are for example, if a company
earns interest from banking services, dividends received from investment of
other companies or subsidiaries, money awards, etc.
For a trading and service entity the same consideration is made for the
revenues/income as sown above. The only difference for the service
company is the return inwards since in most cases services are consumed
when manufactured/prepared with nothing to be left as a return.
Trading Firms
Service Firms
In service companies such as telecommunications, cost of service provided
may be expressed as percentage of sales say 60% of the revenues
Gross Profit
This is the difference between Net Sales and the Cost of Goods Sold. Gross
profit is the profit obtained from the normal operation of a business firm
before incurring operating expenses, tax and other deductions.
Expenses
These are the expenses the company incurs in the process of generating
revenues. The expenses depend on the nature of the business firm.
Profit Before Interest and Tax: This is equal to the Cost of goods sold
less expenses
The fund flow statement is useful to know whether the uses of the funds can
be met by the available sources funds or there is a need for external
financing sources such as bank overdrafts, etc.
Sources of Funds
Consist of all events that increase cash:
Uses of Funds
Consist of all events that decrease cash and include:
The results from each section are added together to compute the net
increase or decrease in cash flow for the firm. The format of the cash flows
statement is given below:
• Accounting policies
• Detailed disclosure regarding individual elements
• Commitments and contingencies
• Business combinations
• Transactions with related parties
• Legal proceedings etc.
These are prepared to justify each accounting figure in the prepared financial
statements.