GOV 90NL: Election Polling and

Public Opinion
Chase Harrison
Preceptor in Survey Research
Department of Government
 Integrated Example: Surveys and the Research Process

Theories About Things

Internal Validity

Concepts Population

External Validity
Specification Error
Measures Sample
Survey Errors
Data Respondents

Relationships Between Things

 Survey Measurement

• Concepts (Theoretical Ideas)

• Measures (Questions or Scales)

• Statistics (i.e. Data)

 Concepts and Measures

• Objective Phenomena
– Facts
– Need to be clearly specified and bounded

• Subjective Phenomena
– Values, attitudes or opinions
– May use scales or single items
 Examples of Concepts

• Voter Intent
• Presidential Approval
• Consumer Confidence
• Unemployment
• Tolerance
 Examples of Measures

• Reported Vote Choice

• Self-Reported Presidential Approval
• Measure of Likelihood of Future Spending
• Whether One is Not Employed and Would
Like to Be
• Responses to Statements About Different
Groups
 Example 1
• CBS News Poll – September 12, 2007

– http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2007/02/12/opinion/polls/main2464626.shtml
CBS Poll Release
 Actual Survey Question
• q66 Can the U.S. military be effective now in lessening
the fighting between groups of Iraqis, or is that
something the U.S. military cannot do much about? [ASK
OPEN END]

– 25% Can be effective

– 67% Cannot do much about
– 8% Don’t know/Refused

http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/CBSNews_polls/iraq_feb_poll.pdf (Page 15)

 Reported Survey Methodology
• “This poll was conducted among a random
sample of 1,142 adults nationwide,
interviewed by telephone February 8-11,
2007. The error due to sampling for results
based on the entire sample could be plus
or minus three percentage points. The
error for subgroups is higher. “

» http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/CBSNews_polls/iraq_feb_poll.pdf (Page 8)