BI TP THI GIA K

H v tn: L NGC QUN Lp K42B Kinh t nng nghip

Hc phn: Kinh t nng h& trang tri N01
ti: S DNG CNG C PHN TCH MI QUAN H GIA PHN

BN, LNG GING, LOI GING, GII TNH VI GI TR SN XUT.

Bi lm:
- Dng phn mm SPSS:

Notes

Output Created
Comments
Input

Missing Value

02-JUN-2011 16:08:37
Active Dataset
Filter
Weight
Split File
N of Rows in

DataSet0
<none>
<none>
<none>
474

Working Data File

Definition of Missing

User-defined missing values are

Cases Used

treated as missing.
Statistics are based on cases with no

Handling

missing values for any variable used.

REGRESSION

Syntax

/DESCRIPTIVES MEAN STDDEV

CORR SIG N
/MISSING LISTWISE
/STATISTICS COEFF OUTS R
ANOVA CHANGE
/CRITERIA=PIN(.05) POUT(.10)
/NOORIGIN
/DEPENDENT GO
/METHOD=ENTER x1 x2 x3 x4 .
Resources

Elapsed Time

0:00:00,18

Memory Required
Additional Memory

2284 bytes

Required for

0 bytes

Residual Plots
Processor Time

[DataSet0]
Descriptive Statistics

0:00:00,03

LnGia tri san xuat

Ln phan bon
Ln luong giong
Gioi tinh
Loai giong

Mean Std. Deviation

N
8,0542
,39733 474
2,5772
,22909 474
1,4305
1,26402 474
1,4620
,50748 474
1,4114
,77320 474

Variables Entered/Removed(b)
Model
1

Variables
Entered
Loai giong,

Variables
Removed

Method

Ln luong giong,
. Enter
Gioi tinh,
Ln phan bon(a)
a All requested variables entered.
b Dependent Variable: LnGia tri san xuat

ANOVA(b)
Mod

Sum of

el
1

Squares

Mean
df

Square

Sig.

Regressi

55,706
4
13,927 344,338
,000(a)
on
Residual 18,968
469
,040
Total
74,675
473
a Predictors: (Constant), Loai giong, Ln luong giong, Gioi tinh, Ln phan bon
b Dependent Variable: LnGia tri san xuat

Coefficients(a)
Unstandardized
Model
1

Standardized

Coefficients
Coefficients
t
Sig.

Std. Error
Beta
Std. Error
(Constant)
6,584
,135
48,906
,000
Ln phan bon
0 ,526
,048
,303 11,027
,000
Ln luong giong
-,028
,008
-,088 -3,498 ,001
Gioi tinh
-,174
,021
-,223 -8,247
,000
Loai giong
,289
,014
,563 20,775
,000
a Dependent Variable: LnGia tri san xuat

Kim nh gi thit
+ H0 : R2 = 0 (1 = 2 = 3= 4 =0)
+ H1 : R2 # 0 (i # 0)
Theo kt qu trn, ta c:
- 0 = 6,584 Khi cc yu t trong m hnh khng thay i, cc yu t ngoi m hnh thay i 1%
th gi tr sn xut thay i 6,584 %.
- 1 = 0,526 Khi lng phn bn tng ln 1% th s lm tng gi tr sn xut ln 0,526% (trong
iu kin cc yu t khc khng i). Do mt s iu kin kh khn, vn t nn cc nng h bn
phn cha , mc u t thp nn nng sut tng t. Cn u t thm vn tng lng phn bn v
chm sc tt hn t hiu qu cao hn.
- 2= -0,028 Khi tng lng ging ln 1% th gi tr sn xut s gim 0,028 % (trong iu kin
cc yu t khc khng i). Mt n v din tch s tng ng vi mt lng ging nht nh. Nu s
dng qu nhiu lng ging trn mt n v din tch, mt s dy hn , do s lm gim nng sut, cht
lng sn phm gim dn n gi tr sn xut gim.
- 3= -0,174 Mc chnh lch gia ch h l Nam vi ch h N l 0,174%. T kt qu trn ta
thy c gii tnh c nh hng n gi tr sn xut. Khi s lng ch h N tng ln 1% s lm gi tr sn
xut gim 0,174%, cn ch h l Nam tng s lng ln 1% s lm cho gi tr sn xut tng 0,174% (trong
iu kin cc yu t khc khng i). iu ny c th gii thch rng, v Nam gii c sc khe hn,
t duy nhy bn hn ph hp vi yu cu chm sc cy trng trong nng nghip, do dai v nhanh nhn hn
ch h l N, nn cho gi tr sn xut cao hn.
- 4 = 0,289 Mc chnh lch gia cc loi ging l 0,289%. C ngha l cht lng ging khc
nhau s cho nhng gi tr sn xut khc nhau. C th, loi ging 2 cho gi tr sn xut cao hn ging 1 l
0,289%, ging 3 li cho gi tr sn xut cao hn ging 2 l 0,289%. Vy, ging 3 em li nng sut cao nht,
khi cc yu t u vo khc khng thay i.
- R2 = 0,746 c ngha l cc bin phn bn, lng ging, loi ging, gii tnh ch h gii thch c
74,6% s thay i ca gi tr sn xut. Cn 25,4% cn li c gii thch bng cc yu t khc ngoi m

hnh nh kh hu, thi tit, lao ng, chm sc,... M hnh R2 = 0,746 c ngha l cc yu t bn trong
m hnh gii thch hu ht s thay i ca gi tr sn xut.
Da vo kt qu, ta thy:

Fqs = 344,338 > F 0,05 ( 1; 474 1) = 3,88 v sig.F = 0,000 < =

0,05
=> Bc b gi thit H0 vi mc ngha = 0,05. Vy m hnh ph hp, cc bin lng ging,
loi ging, phn bn v gii tnh ch h gii thch c s bin ng ca bin gi tr sn xut.
Kim nh cc gi tr , dng kim nh T
- Gi thit:
+ H0 : 1 = 0
+ H1 : 1 #0
Theo m hnh ta c:

t1 = 0,526 / 0,048 = 11,027; t/2 (n-2) = 1.97;

|t1| > t /2 (n-2)
=> Bc b H0, chp nhn H1. Ngha l vi mc ngha = 0,05 th bin phn bn c nh hng
n gi tr sn xut.
Tng t nh trn, ta c:
Sig. 2 = 0.001 < = 0,05
Sig. 3 = 0.000 < = 0,05
Sig. 4 = 0.000 < = 0,05
=> Cc bin lng ging, loi ging, gii tnh u c nh hng n gi tr sn xut.

Mc tng quan gia cc bin:

Correlations

Pearson

LnGia tri san xuat

Correlation
Ln phan bon
Ln luong giong
Gioi tinh
Loai giong
Sig. (1-tailed) LnGia tri san xuat
Ln phan bon
Ln luong giong
Gioi tinh
Loai giong
N
LnGia tri san xuat
Ln phan bon
Ln luong giong
Gioi tinh
Loai giong

LnGia tri san

Ln phan

Ln luong

xuat

bon

giong

1,000

0,640

-0,027

-0,512

0,774

0,640
-0,027
-0,512
0,774
.
,000
,279
,000
,000
474
474
474
474
474

1,000
-0,148
-0,330
0,444
,000
.
,001
,000
,000
474
474
474
474
474

-0,148
1,000
-0,272
0,080
,279
,001
.
,000
,040
474
474
474
474
474

-0,330
-0,272
1,000
-0,378
,000
,000
,000
.
,000
474
474
474
474
474

0,444
0,080
-0,378
1,000
,000
,000
,040
,000
.
474
474
474
474
474

Gioi tinh

Loai
giong

Nhn vo kt qu hi quy ta thy:

- Mi quan h ln nht l 0.774 gia loi ging v gi tr sn xut. Mi quan h ny th hin ch
nu ging l loi tt th cht lng sn phm cao, do gi tr sn xut cao v sn xut c hiu qu cao.
Ngc li, nu ging m khng tt th cht lng sn phm khng c m bo, do gi tr sn xut s b
gim.
- Lng phn bn v gi tr sn xut c mi quan h kh ln 0,640. iu ny th hin mi quan h
kh cht ch gia lng phn bn vi gi tr sn xut. V phn bn l mt yu t u vo kh quan trng ca
qu trnh sn xut, n cung cp cho cy trng dnh dng y hn. Do phn bn nh hng rt ln
n nng sut v sn lng ca sn phm nn nh hng n gi tr sn xut.
Gia phn bn v loi ging cng c tng quan kh cao vi gi tr l 0,444. iu ny c ngha l
mi loi ging thch hp vi 1 lng phn bn khc nhau, bn nhiu hay t cn ty thuc vo loi ging gieo
trng, thi im v cc giai on pht trin ca cy.
Gia gii tnh ch h v gi tr sn xut c mi tng quan nghch l - 0,512. Nh gii thch

phn trn, khi c s thay i v bin gii tnh, s lm cho gi tr sn xut gim.
Hu nh tt c cc gi tr tng quan khi kim nh u cho gi tr Sig. = 0.000 ngha l cc gi tr ny
u c ngha gii thch tng quan gia cc bin vi nhau.
- S dng Excel chy hm sn xut Cobb Douglas:
Kt qu cng tng t nh lm trn SPSS:
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0,865513231
R Square
0,749113152
Adjusted R
Square
Standard Error
Observations

0,746973392
0,199866048
474

ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

4
469
473

SS
55,93973694
18,73487899
74,67461593

MS
13,98493424
0,039946437

F
350,0921548

Significance F
2,659E-139

Standard
Intercept
X Variable 1
X Variable 2
X Variable 3
X Variable 4

Coefficients
6,596887595
0,528471219
-0,029255266
-0,184795115
0,287512322

Error
0,133064996
0,047235645
0,007880692
0,021380356
0,01384236

Upper
t Stat
49,57643116
11,18797503
-3,712271047
-8,643219625
20,77046987

P-value
1,3303E-188
6,43829E-26
0,000230083
8,68571E-17
1,98795E-68

Cch gi thch cc bin cng tng t nh dng phn mm SPSS

Lower 95%
6,335410234
0,435651528
-0,044741102
-0,226808261
0,260311601

95%
6,858365
0,621291
-0,01377
-0,14278
0,314713

Lower
95,0%
6,33541
0,435652
-0,04474
-0,22681
0,260312

Upper
95,0%
6,858365
0,621291
-0,01377
-0,14278
0,314713