Extinction Risk and Diversification Are Linked in a Plant Biodiversity Hotspot

T. Jonathan Davies1,2*, Gideon F. Smith3,4, Dirk U. Bellstedt5, James S. Boatwright6,7, Benny Bytebier5,8, Richard M. Cowling9, Fe lix Forest10, Luke J. Harmon11, A. Muthama Muasya12, Brian D. Schrire10, Yolande Steenkamp3, Michelle van der Bank7, Vincent Savolainen10,13 Publication date: May 24, 2011 Abstract: Present extinction event approaching mass extinction in fossil records Extinction rate now >>>>> Extinction rate then; Extinction rate now is continually growing Plant = basis of life BUT little is known in plant extinction and vulnerability Focused on the Cape of South Africa global biodiversity hotspot Taxonomic distribution of extinction risks differs significantly between regions NOT CONSISTENT WITH A SIMPLE, TRAIT-BASED MODEL OF EXTINCTION Comprehensive Phylogenetic tree for the Cape THERE IS A PRESENCE OF PHYLOGENETIC SIGNAL IN THE DISTRIBUTION OF PLANT EXTINCTION RISKS BUT extinction hits threatened species that cluster at the tip of a clade (OPPOSITE THAT OF MAMMALIAN EXTINCTION) Introduction

Terrestrial environment approximately 1/3 of land area has been transformed for human use 1/4 of global productivity diverted to human consumption Main direct human-induced drivers: Habitat loss Fragmentation Dominant future driver CLIMATE CHANGE IUCNs Red List of Threatened Species record for incremental slide towards extinction of much current biodiversity; has 7 Levels: LC = least concern NT = near-threatened VU = vulnerable EN = endangered CR = Critically Endangered EW = Extinct in the wild EX = Extinct 75% of the list is from animals in vertebrates, proportion of species falling within different threat categories differ significantly between higher taxa TAXONOMIC Selectivity in species vulnerability Body size, generation time and geographic range size associated with threat status Most vulnerable species nested within species-poor clades <5% of known plant species are already assessed Within flowering plants, 70% of currently listed species are classified as at risk (VU or higher) much higher than in vertebrate groups (22%)