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Uranium
Uranium
URANIUM REACTION
IEA report says nuclear energy is vital; UK advised to spend on nuclear and not wind; French study shows inevitability of nuclear IEA INSISTS NUCLEAR ENERGY VITAL TO MEET GLOBAL DEMAND
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned that with the growth of emerging economies, the fight to reduce global warming and the expected rise in cost for oil, nuclear energy remains the only viable solution to meet the global energy needs. In a report released Wednesday, the IEA outlined that global nuclear generation capacity could fall 15% by 2035 if countries like Germany and Belgium continued with their decommissioning plans. However, this pullback would only mean an increased demand for coal and gas, which would further deteriorate the environment and produce carbon emissions. The price of non-nuclear energy sources would rise sharply as China and other emerging economies drive a 14% increase in oil demand by 2035. The IEA predicts a future oil price of $120 a barrel. The executive director of IEA, Maria van der Hoeven, noted that growth, prosperity and rising population would inevitably push up energy needs in the future but the world cannot continue to rely on an insecure environmentally unsustainable use of energy. Without a bold change in policy direction, the world will lock itself into an insecure, inefficient and high-carbon energy system.
Equity Research
Source: www.dailymail.co.uk
Rob Chang
rchang@versantpartners.com (416) 849-5008 (866) 442-4485
Keagan Marcus
kmarcus@versantpartners.com (416) 363-5757 (866) 442-4485
Sales/Trading Montreal: (514) 845-8111, (800) 465-5616; Toronto: (416) 363-5757, (866) 442-4485 See disclosure and a description of our recommendation structure at the end of this report.
Uranium Reaction
JAPANS PRIME MINISTER MOVING AWAY FROM LESS RELIANCE ON NUCLEAR POWER POSITION
Japans Prime Minister, Yoshihiko Noda, is backing down from Japans post-Fukushima position of having Japan rely less on nuclear power. During summit talks with Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung, Noda agreed to have Japan work with Vietnam to develop the latters nuclear program. This agreement reverses the Japanese governments postFukushima decision to suspend its talks with other countries over the export of nuclear power complexes. The move also maintains Japans international credibility as the reneging on the previously won Vietnamese contract would spark questions regarding the international communitys confidence in Japanese contracts. Similarly, Japans Foreign Minister and his Indian counterpart have agreed to continue talks towards a bilateral nuclear power agreement, which would pave the way for Japans export of nuclear reactors and technology to India in the future. Prime Minister Noda is still cautious in giving a complete green light to future exports of nuclear reactors and technology, but the moves could be interpreted as an indication that Tokyo is considering fresh exports of nuclear power despite the Prime Ministers cautious approach.
Exhibit 2. Japanese and Vietnamese Prime Ministers shake hands over nuclear agreement
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Uranium Reaction
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Uranium Reaction
to withstand. However, with the NRC approval the reactors can be restarted as soon as next week.
Company Name Cameco Uranium One Uranium Participation Fission Energy Kivalliq Energy Energy Fuels Average S&P TSX Global Base Metals Index
Source: Versant Partners
Weekly Since Inception -8.4% -10.2% -9.8% -7.2% -1.0% -2.4% -7.2% 54.0% 13.8% 0.0% -2.6% 19.4% -2.5% 8.9% -2.0% -5.3%
IF CASH IS KING
Uranium equities trading at the lowest multiples relative to their most recently reported balance sheet cash positions are the following:
Exhibit 4. Top 10 Uranium Companies - Price to Balance Sheet Cash
November 9, 2011 Company Name Stage All figures in $CAD Stock Price $0.34 $0.35 $0.10 $0.22 $0.18 $0.09 $0.16 $0.09 $0.11 $0.32 Market Cap (MM) 17.60 61.01 8.45 13.09 19.40 17.44 54.59 9.86 7.41 49.21 Enterprise Value (MM) -2.11 8.76 1.64 3.19 4.91 5.07 18.46 3.52 3.00 20.07 Price/Cash 0.9x 1.2x 1.2x 1.3x 1.3x 1.4x 1.5x 1.6x 1.7x 1.7x Cash (MM) 19.7 52.36 6.81 9.9 14.49 12.37 36.13 6.34 4.41 29.14 Shares O/S 51.75 174.30 84.52 59.49 107.78 193.73 341.17 109.50 67.34 153.77
Continental Precious Minerals, Inc. (TSX:CZQ) Exploration Berkeley Resources Ltd. (ASX:BKY) Feasibility Uranium North Resources Corp. (TSXV:UNR) Exploration Tigris Uranium Corp. (TSXV:TU) Exploration Macusani Yellowcake, Inc. (TSXV:YEL) Exploration Tournigan Energy Ltd. (TSXV:TVC) Pre-Feasibility Alliance Resources Ltd. (ASX:AGS) Development Energia Minerals Limited (ASX:EMX) Exploration Australian American Mining Corporation Limited (ASX:AIW) Pre-Feasibility Energy Metals Limited (ASX:EME) Exploration
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Uranium Reaction
EV/LB AVERAGES
The average enterprise value to pounds of in-situ uranium in the ground ratios are presented below. The data is separated based on development stage and shows the group average EV/Lb metric using 43-101/JORC compliant resources and global resources, which are all resources of any level of confidence. The past week saw the average uranium EV/Lb valuation for uranium equities rise as the average 43-101/JORC compliant valuation increased to $1.68/lb this week from $1.58/lb last week (+6.3%). The average for global resources declined to $1.36/lb from $1.51/lb or -9.9%.
Exhibit 5. EV/Lb Averages by Development Stage - This Week
Global # of 43-101/JORC Resource Stage Constituents EV/Lb Avg EV/Lb Avg Producer 6 $5.68 $4.20 Developer 4 $3.34 $3.00 Feasibility 8 $0.88 $0.85 Pre-Feasibility 11 $1.10 $0.99 Exploration 32 $1.10 $0.85 61 $1.68 $1.36
*Results higher than three standard deviations are removed from the calculation of averages Source: Versant Partners
Global # of 43-101/JORC Resource Constituents EV/Lb Avg EV/Lb Avg Producer 6 $6.88 $5.31 Developer 4 $3.26 $3.00 Feasibility 8 $0.86 $0.83 Pre-Feasibility 11 $1.11 $1.01 Exploration 32 $1.11 $1.10 61 $1.58 $1.51 Stage
*Results higher than three standard deviations are removed from the calculation of averages Source: Versant Partners
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Uranium Update
TSX Cameco Corp. (TSX:CCO) Production TSX Denison Mines Corp. (TSX:DML) Production ASX Energy Resources of Australia Ltd. (ASX:ERA) Production TSX Paladin Energy, Ltd. (TSX:PDN) Production AMEX Uranium Energy Corp. (AMEX:UEC) Production TSX Uranium One Inc. (TSX:UUU) Production ASX Alliance Resources Ltd. (ASX:AGS) Development TSX Energy Fuels Inc. (TSX:EFR) Development amex Uranerz Energy Corp. (AMEX:URZ) Development TSX UR-Energy Inc. (TSX:URE) Development ASX A-Cap Resources Ltd. (ASX:ACB) Feasibility TSX Bannerman Resources Limited (TSX:BAN) Feasibility ASX Berkeley Resources Ltd. (ASX:BKY) Feasibility ASX Extract Resources Ltd. (ASX:EXT) Feasibility TSX Khan Resources Inc. (TSX:KRI) Feasibility TSX Mega Uranium Ltd. (TSX:MGA) Feasibility TSX Strathmore Minerals Corp. (TSX:STM) Feasibility TSXV Titan Uranium Inc. (TSXV:TUE) Feasibility ASX Australian American Mining Corporation Limited (ASX:AIW) Pre-Feasibility TSXV Bayswater Uranium Corp. (TSXV:BYU) Pre-Feasibility TSX Forsys Metals Corp. (TSX:FSY) Pre-Feasibility TSX Laramide Resources Ltd. (TSX:LAM) Pre-Feasibility ASX Peninsula Energy Limited (ASX:PEN) Pre-Feasibility TSX Powertech Uranium Corp. (TSX:PWE) Pre-Feasibility TSX Strateco Resources Inc. (TSX:RSC) Pre-Feasibility ASX Toro Energy Ltd (ASX:TOE) Pre-Feasibility TSXV Tournigan Energy Ltd. (TSXV:TVC) Pre-Feasibility TSX UEX Corp. (TSX:UEX) Pre-Feasibility ASX Uranex Limited (ASX:UNX) Pre-Feasibility TSXV Abitex Resources Inc. (TSXV:ABE) Exploration ASX Anatolia Energy Limited (ASX:AEK) Exploration ASX Aura Energy Limited (ASX:AEE) Exploration ASX Black Range Minerals Ltd. (ASX:BLR) Exploration TSX Continental Precious Minerals, Inc. (TSX:CZQ) Exploration AMEX Crosshair Energy Corp. (AMEX:CXZ) Exploration TSXV Cue Resources Ltd (TSXV:CUE) Exploration ASX Deep Yellow Ltd. (ASX:DYL) Exploration ASX Energia Minerals Limited (ASX:EMX) Exploration ASX Energy Metals Limited (ASX:EME) Exploration TSXV Fission Energy Corp. (TSXV:FIS) Exploration ASX Forte Energy NL (ASX:FTE) Exploration TSX Hathor Exploration Ltd. (TSX:HAT) Exploration TSXV JNR Resources Inc. (TSXV:JNN) Exploration TSXV Kivalliq Energy Corp. (TSXV:KIV) Exploration TSXV Macusani Yellowcake, Inc. (TSXV:YEL) Exploration ASX Marenica Energy Ltd (ASX:MEY) Exploration TSX Mawson Resources Ltd. (TSX:MAW) Exploration TSXV Pele Mountain Resources Inc. (TSXV:GEM) Exploration TSXV Pitchblack Resources Ltd. (TSXV:PIT) Exploration TSXV Pitchstone Exploration Ltd. (TSXV:PXP) Exploration TSX Rockgate Capital Corp. (TSX:RGT) Exploration ASX Summit Resources Ltd. (ASX:SMM) Exploration TSXV Tigris Uranium Corp. (TSXV:TU) Exploration TSXV U308 Corp. (TSXV:UWE) Exploration TSXV Ultra Uranium Corp. (TSXV:ULU) Exploration TSXV Uracan Resources, Ltd. (TSXV:URC) Exploration TSXV Uranium North Resources Corp. (TSXV:UNR) Exploration NASDAQ Uranium Resources, Inc. (NasdaqCM:URRE) Exploration ASX Uraniumsa Limited (ASX:USA) Exploration TSX Vena Resources Inc. (TSX:VEM) Exploration TSXV Virginia Energy Resources Inc. (TSXV:VAE) Exploration
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Uranium Update
Analyst certification
The research analyst whose name appears on this report hereby certifies that the opinions and recommendations expressed herein accurately reflect his personal views about the securities, issuers or industries discussed herein.
Definitions of recommendations
BUY: The stock is attractively priced relative to the companys fundamentals and we expect it to appreciate significantly from the current price over the next 6 to 12 months.
BUY (Speculative): The stock is attractively priced relative to the companys fundamentals, however investment in the security carries a higher degree of risk. NEUTRAL: The stock is fairly valued, lacks a near term catalyst, or its execution risk is such that we expect it to trade within a narrow range of the current price in the next 6 to 12 months. The longer term fundamental value of the company may be materially higher, but certain milestones/catalysts have yet to be fully realized. SELL: The stock is overpriced relative to the companys fundamentals, and we expect it to decline from the current price over the next 6 to 12 months. TENDER: We believe the offer price by the acquirer is fair and thus recommend investors tender their shares to the offer. UNDER REVIEW: We are temporarily placing our recommendation under review until further information is disclosed.
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