Forecasting Template - Creates Monthly Forecasts with Seasonality and Trending

www.cortrapar.com
Copyright 2002 Corporate Training Partners, Inc.

traininginc@cortrapar.com

Definition - Seasonality: Ups and downs that occur on a 12-month cycle Definition - Business Cycle: Ups and downs that occur on a more-than-one-year wavelength Definition - Secular Trend: Upward or downward long-term trend line Instructions: Enter historical data, in units or whole dollars, in the green user areas. Enter the forecaster's opinion of current business-cycle conditions in the small green box. Note: This template comes pre-loaded with demo data. To use, write over all existing demo data. Functions of this template: 1) Template calculates seasonality and secular trend for the data. 2) Template combines user's business cycle opinion with calculated data 3) Template creates monthly and annual forecasts based on user's input. Forecaster's Current-Condition Business Cycle Opinion Factor (Default = 100%): Seasonality Factor: 5 Yrs Ago 4 Yrs Ago 3 Yrs Ago 2 Yrs Ago 1 Yr Ago Average: 5000 5100 5250 5150 5300 5160 99% 5100 5050 5300 5000 7000 5490 105% 5600 5300 5200 5400 5250 5350 103% 5400 5400 5450 5450 5500 5440 104% 6000 5330 5400 5500 5500 5546 107% 5700 5800 5700 5800 5750 5750 110% 3500 3500 3600 3700 3700 3600 69% 4500 4400 4450 4500 4550 4480 86% 3900 5150 5300 5500 6000 5170 99% 5500 5600 5400 5500 5500 5500 106% 5600 5500 5550 5500 5600 5550 107% 3000 5750 5725 5700 7000 5435 104% 4900 58800 5157 61880 5194 62325 5225 62700 5554 66650 Secular Trend Factor Prediction: 5206

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Average Annual Total Secular Trend Factor

94%

99%

100%

100%

107%

ality and Trending

nc@cortrapar.com

100% Monthly Forecasts: 5569 5926 5774 5872 5986 6206 3886 4835 5580 5936 5990 5866 Annual Total Forecast: 67427

108%