James Fournier

Betting Opportunity: Red Bull Racing to win the 2012 season. When betting on sports teams, many market investors try to quantify them in the same way they analyze companies. Players are assets - the goals they score or the yards they cover their profits. Yet this can prove hard, given the unpredictable nature of sports - as seen last night in the Super Bowl final where quants from Analytic Investors were of the view that the New England Patriots would win by +3 points. Congratulations to the NY Giants. When it comes to F1 a different approach can be taken to an extent as a teams F1 car is a piece of technology which should perform consistently to a certain level (no issues of form etc). Here begins, however, an all time F1 debate - how much are race wins down to the car and how much to the driver? Personally in F1, I am somewhat part of the former camp and as such when viewing betting odds look to buy strength but take advantage of driver perceived weakness to increase the favor of betting odds. Thus in 2012 a betting opportunity presents itself. Bet Fair Odds for Mark Webber to win 2012 F1 Season: 17/1 Stake Size: $50 = $800 pay-out. Buy Strength, Buy into the RedBull Car: Redbull is a best of the breed type team and has won the constructors championship for the past two consecutive years. Indeed, thanks to Sebastian Vettel they had a lot of time last season to prepare for this new one. This year they have produced another strong looking car with lots of new modifications beyond what Ferrari and McLaren have designed. See the photo --> unique nose vent for added downforce. Indeed, looking at the odds - Redbull to win Constructors Championship 5/6. Driver Bias: Drivers are marginalized for a number of reasons - primarily if they are perceived as less talented etc than their team-member. If we however follow the hypothesis that the car is the overriding factor in winning a race then were looking for the cheapest way of gain the maximum exposure to the cars performance. Indeed, looking at Mark Webber there is little to say in terms of negatively discounting the driver.

Please Note: Betting is risky. All views expressed on this page are personal thoughts and are not recommendations for future action. You are liable for all financial loss in your betting decisions.