Learning Curve Analysis

Learning Objective
After this class the students should be able to:

Calculate the hours required to produce determinate product taking account the learning curve.

Time management
 The expected time to deliver this module is 50 minutes.

30 minutes are reserved for team practices and exercises and 20 minutes for lecture.

Learning Curve
Past experience indicates that

individuals learn by experience (i.e., get better and better at the job by carrying out the tasks more and more).

Warm-up 30 minutes
 The student teams receive a bag containing

pieces and are asked to assembly a same set for several times.  One teams member is invited to chronometer the time that your team spend to assembly the set.  After the end, each team plots the results in a software (excel) and try to fit an exponential curve.

Warm-up 30 minutes
 An example could be assembly the LEGOS airplane

model # 6536 used by Ammar & Wright, but any similar assembly model can be used.

LEGOS airplane model # 6536 (Fig. from Ammar & Wright)

Learning curve
This phenomenon was first reported by T. P. Wright in 1936. But, the learning curve theory is based on assumptions such as those listed next Chase, R B., 1981

Learning curve assumptions

 The time required to complete a specified

task or unit of a product or item will be less each time the task is performed;
 The unit time will reduce at a decreasing rate;  The decrease in time will follow a certain

pattern, such as negative exponential distribution shape.

Learning Curve assumptions

 The learning curve may vary one product to

another and from one organization to another. The rate of learning depends on factors such as the quality of management and the potential of the process and products

 Moreover, it may be said that any

change in personnel, process, or product disrupts the learning curve. Consequently, there is a need for the utmost care in assuming that a learning curve is continual and permanent.

Learning Curve Effects

Some Information on Learning Curve Effects in U.S. Industrial Sector Number 1 Item/Area Description Steel making Time Period 1920 1955 Cumulative Learning Curve Slop Parameter Percentage Units Produced (UP) UP Production Worker labor-hour per unit produced Average factory selling price Direct labor hours per unit Price 79

Handheld calculators Assembly of aircrafts Ford Motor Company Model T production

1975 1978

74

1925 1957

UP

80

1910 1926

UP

86

 The Table presents data on learning curve effects in the U.S. industrial

sector . An 80% learning rate is descriptive of certain operations in such areas as ship construction, electronic data processing equipment, automatic machine production, and aircraft instruments and frame assemblies.  The learning curves are found to be quite useful in a variety of applications, including strategic evaluation of company and industry performance, internal labor forecasting, establishing costs and budgets, production planning, external purchasing, and subcontracting of items
 The learning curve theory is based on a doubling of productivity. More

specifically, when output or production doubles, the reduction in time per unit affects the learning curve rate. For example, an 80% learning rate means the second unit takes 80% of the time of the first unit, the fourth unit takes 80% of the second unit, the eighth unit takes 80% of the fourth unit, and so on.

Result
 We may write

LHm = LH1m C Where: LHm is the labor hours required to produce unit LH1 is the labor hours to produce unit one or the first unit. C is the learning curve slope and is expressed by log of the learning rate/(log2)

Discussion
 Each team has to present an analyze of its

results based on the theory presented in class

Exercise
Assume that the learning rate for a certain operation is 75% and it took 90 hours to produce the first unit. Calculate the hours required to produce the fifth unit.

Solution
By substituting the given data value into C equation, we get  C = log 0.75/log 2 = 0.4150
 Using the above value and the specified data in LHm =

LH1m C yields
 LH5 = 90(5)-0.4150  = 46.15 hours  It will take 46.15 hours to produce the fifth unit.

Reference
 Engineering and Technology management

tools and applications Dhillon, B. S. Artec House, Inc 2002.

 Operation Analysis Using Excel Weida,

2000, Duxbury.