Welcome

Break-Up Forecast Roundtable Discussion Hosted by Senator Lisa Murkowski

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NOAA AK DHSEM FEMA

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Alaska Pacific River Forecast Center Scott Lindsey, Service Coordination Click to edit Master subtitle style Hydrologist April 5, 2012

Breakup Briefing April 2012

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What does our office do?

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Our mission is to provide weather, water, and climate data, forecasts and warnings for the protection of life and property and enhancement of the national economy We provide Alaskan residents and visitors the information that they need to plan and prepare for potentially hazardous environmental conditions

Some past events!

14 of the 22 Federal disaster declarations in Alaska since 1990 (an average of one per year) included flooding as a cause. Notable events in the last 6 years:
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Extreme rainfall floods

What is our current Snowpack on March 1, 2012 was situation?

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much higher than normal (130 180%) for Southcentral Alaska. Interior snowpack varied from 100 to 130% above normal. Ice thickness at the beginning of March 2012 varied from slightly below normal to slightly above normal. March was generally colder than normal and the long-term climate outlooks call for continued cooler than normal temperatures. This increases the likelihood that a sudden rise in temperatures to

Current Situation

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Current Situation

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Current Situation

Snow information Courtesy of the Natural Resource Conservation Service, their cooperators In the snow survey program and the Yukon Territory Water Resources Branch

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Current Situation

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What do we expect this year?

The potential for severe flooding exists and increases if we continue to have cool temperatures through April. Currently we have rated our flood potential at one level above normal. That means if a community normally receives minor flooding, the potential for moderate flooding is increased. If a village

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Initial Flood Potential Map

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How do we monitor RIVER WATCH breakup?collaboration (over 30 years) Long standing

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with the State of Alaska Department of Homeland Security and Emergency Management (DHS&EM) Hydrologists from the River Forecast Center team with an emergency management specialist from DHS&EM and they follow the breakup front on the Yukon and Kuskokwim Rivers and reach out to the communities The Hydrologist determines the potential for flooding, including the likely severity, and the team talks to community leaders to advise them of the threat and ensure that they are properly prepared NWS Forecast offices disseminate watches and warnings for the protection of life and property When severe flooding occurs, the State and

QUESTIO NS?

Eagle, Stevens Village, Tanana in 2009 Crooked Creek in 2011 It pays to be prepared!!!

For more information go to aprfc.arh.noaa.gov To report breakup information see our Facebook page www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.Alaska.gov 4/5/12

7 day Forecast Temperatures

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OVERVIEW OF THE 2012 RIVER WATCH PROGRAM

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Mike OHare Deputy Director State of Alaska

What is River Watch?

Each year, the State of Alaska DHS&EM and the National Weather Service (NWS) separately fund a joint program to provide advance and emergency notification of imminent snowmelt and ice jam flooding to 75 Alaska villages, 4/5/12

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The Division of Homeland Security & Emergency Management (DHS&EM) the primary agency for emergency management in the state. Alaska-Pacific River Forecast Center (APRFC) of the National Weather Service responsible for scientific study and information sharing. River Neighbors are riverine communities that collect data before, during, and after flooding occurs.
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Who are the Major Participants in River Watch?

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DHS&EM and APRFC Goals

Monitor rivers and obtain current information on the status of the breakup. Prepare communities in advance of flooding. Warn communities of the likelihood of approaching high water, significant ice, and imminent flooding. Advise community leaders on basic emergency management 4/5/12 immediately following

Russian Mission Alakanuk

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Ice Jam Flooding in Alaska

Significant flooding on major river systems in Alaska is not uncommon. Since 1978:

Flooding caused by ice jams has garnered state- or federal-declarations over 50 times. Several state and/or federal declarations have included more than one locally-declared community:
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Ten or more communities were grouped together into federal declarations in 1989, 1991, 2002, and 2009. Five or more local declarations were included in state and/or federal declarations in 1992, 1994, and 2006.

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The State of Alaska has provided substantial public and individual assistance funds to communities impacted by ice jam flooding; an estimated 100 million dollars since 1978!
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Declared Alaskan Disasters

Disaster Breakdown (~240 declared events since 1978) in order of occurrence.

1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10.

Ice jam floods Fall sea storms and flooding Building fires Winter storms and flooding Summer storms and flooding Extreme cold/community utility freeze-ups Wildfires Generator/community power problems Facility damage All other, e.g., erosion, economic, Haz Mat, Windstorms, landslide/avalanches, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, communication problems, etc.
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Ice Jam flooding and Fall Sea storms account for a third of all declarations since 1978!

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How Often Does Significant Ice Jam Flooding Occur?

Year Significance of Flooding 2001 2001 Middle Yukon Flood State disaster. 2002 2002 Interior Floods State and Federal disaster. 2003 2003 Salcha Flood State disaster. 2004 Low statewide flooding threat. No significant flooding occurred. 2005 2005 Spring Floods State disaster. 2006 2006 Spring Floods State and Federal disaster. 2007 No significant flooding due to a low statewide threat. 2008 No disaster declared; however, minor to moderate flooding

2001 Middle Yukon Flood

Koyukuk May 2001

Nulato Alakanuk May 2001 May 2005

State Disaster AK 01-196, declared May 31, 2001. Total cost for this disaster: $510,554.
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Flooding at Nulato and Koyukuk along the Yukon River. 35 Nulato residents evacuated by helicopter to Galena.

2002 Interior Flood

Ice jam on Upper Yukon May 2002

Aniak May 2002

State Disaster AK 02-200, declared may 29, 2002. FEMA Disaster DR-1423-AK, declared June 26, 2002.
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Flooding at 11 communities along the Tanana, Kuskokwim, Nushagak, Susitna, and Yukon Rivers. Total costs for this disaster: $5,099,254. Total State costs

2003 Salcha Flood

Salcha April 2003 Salcha April 2003

Emmonak May 2005

Alakanuk May 2005

State Disaster AK 03-205, declared May 21, 2003. Total cost for this disaster: $426,048.
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Flooding at Salcha on the Tanana River the third flooding episode in two years. 40 residents evacuated and sheltered by the Fairbanks North Star Borough.

2005 Spring Floods

Emmonak May 2005

State Disaster AK 05-213, declared July 20, 2005. Total cost for this disaster: $1.293 million.
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Alakanuk, Emmonak, and McGrath were the hardest hit communities. Flooding also reported at Kwethluk and Tuluksak.

Kwethlu k May 2005

2006 Spring Floods

Emmonak May 2006

Kwethluk May 2006

State Disaster AK 06-218, declared June 27, 2006. FEMA Disaster DR-1657-AK, declared August 4, 2006
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Hughes, Koyukuk, Kwethluk, Alakanuk, and Emmonak were the hardest hit communities. Flooding also reported at Bethel, Nulato, Tetlin, and Kongiganak. Total costs for this disaster: $2,916 million. Total State costs were $1.869

2009 Spring Floods

Eagle Village May 2009

Eagle May 2009

State Disaster AK 09-227, declared May 6, 2009. FEMA Disaster DR-1843-AK, declared June 11, 2009.
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Eagle and Eagle Village were only two of 40 communities flooded in May 2009! Total estimated costs for this disaster: $13 million. Total State costs were $3.25 million.

2010 Buckland Flood

Buckland May 2010

Emmonak May 2005

Buckland May 2010

A local disaster declaration was sent to the NW Arctic Borough, but it was generally rescinded. Alternative funding via DEC was sought by the community.
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Buckland experienced about three days of high water and moderate flooding.

2011 Spring Floods

Crooked Creek May 2011 Kwethluk May 2006 Red Devil May 2011

State Disaster AK 09 232, declared May 17, 2011. FEMA Disaster DR-1992-AK, declared June 10, 2011.
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Crooked Creek and Red Devil were the hardest hit communities. Several residents self-evacuated to Donlin Creek Mine. Total costs for this disaster: $3.69 million. Total State costs were

River Watch Timeframe

March Preparation and coordination begins between DHS&EM and NWS. The NWS prepares initial breakup outlooks. Early mid April The DHS&EM video Flood Watch: A Time to Prepare is typically aired on television or mailed to communities. DHS&EM mails break up guidance to at-risk 4/5/12 riverine communities.

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Spring Flood Breakup Guide

Each year until 2010, DHS&EM mailed an updated Spring Flood Break up Guide to 76 at-risk riverine communities, boroughs, and tribal organizations, plus a few state agencies. This guide basically:

outlined general procedures to prepare for seasonal flooding contained helpful checklists included contact numbers for State, local, and village officials.

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DHS&EM now distributes a new response guide intended for small communities. The purpose of this guide is to meet four goals:

Alaska Emergency Response Guide for Small Communities

Assist local officials in preparing for, responding to, and recovering from disasters and emergencies. Help local officials begin 4/5/12 development of their local

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Information Sources

There are two general types of information: field and remote

Field information from State Trooper, private and commercial pilot reports, and community observations. Remote involves weather products and projections, models, webcams, and satellite imagery compiled in Anchorage.

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Field Observations

The primary source of river stage and ice jam conditions is provided by village observers and local pilots. NWS contacts observers in several river villages for daily reports. Pilots send in regular pilot reports (PIREPS) that help NWS determine:

quality of ice ice movement ice jam and flooding

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NWS Flood Forecast Tools Used For Flooding Potential Due to Ice Blockage from these NWS reviews data
sources in preparing their breakup forecast:

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Freezing degree day relationships Ice thickness data and modeling Snow water equivalent data and modeling Stream flow data and modeling Aerial reconnaissance monitoring Synthetic aperture radar images

Seasonal Climate Outlook

The NWS prepares seasonal temperature and precipitation outlook maps. The maps for April 2012 are shown at left.
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NWS monitors vast stretches of Alaska daily via satellite and radar imagery. Selected satellite flight paths can be viewed individually to display timely river ice information. Available on the web at: http://modis.gsfc.nasa.gov/ Synthetic aperature radar (SAR) can identify ice cover, ice runs, and open water after dark and

Satellite and Radar Imagery

MODIS satellite view of Middle Yukon River area 11 May 2010

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MODIS satellite view of Middle Kuskokwim River, 11 May 2010

NWS Weather Projections

DHS&EM monitors many statewide weather, satellite and flood information sites. NWS issues regular projections based on village reports, river stage gauge data and climate modeling. NWS reports and predictions can be found at: http://aprfc.arh.noaa.gov The progress of breakup is displayed on the web graphically along with text reports from the River Watch

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Webcam view of McGrath From Airport Runway May 1, 2009

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http://www.borealisbroadband.net/vidmcgrath1.htm

What Happens During the Field Program

Teams conduct daily flights of the river stretches most at risk of ice jam flooding. Photographs are taken to document the water levels and ice conditions. Based on this data, estimates of the flood potential and threat are made to at-risk communities downriver.
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Which Rivers are Flown?

ALWAYS - Yukon and Kuskokwim Rivers
Portions of these rivers are flown every year. Together they have the highest percentage and greatest likelihood for ice jam flooding. Potentially dangerous conditions to develop and go unnoticed due to the vast uninhabited areas which separate the river communities.

USUALLY Koyukuk River

Especially the confluence with the Yukon River. The evacuation of Hughes and Allakaket in 1994 was the costly disaster since the 1964 earthquake.

IF NECESSARY - Tanana, Chena, Kobuk, Buckland, and their tributaries

Normally monitored from Anchorage and/or Fairbanks unless local observations or NWS projections identify a 4/5/12 4444 flood threat.

Normal Breakup Sequence

Yukon River

Break-up begins in Dawson, Canada followed a week later in Eagle, and a week and a half later in Circle. Historically, breakup in Eagle happens the first week of May and continues for approximately 2 weeks. The lower portions of the river will begin to move within ten days of the start of break up on the Kuskokwim River.

Kuskokwim River

Break-up usually begins at Nikolai within a week to ten days after break-up of the Yukon River at Circle. The rest of the river breaks up about a week later.
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River Watch Field Team

River Watch Teams Deploy based on:

National Weather Services reports and forecasts. Historical data.

The Team is normally comprised of:

DHS&EM emergency management specialist. NWS/APRFC hydrologist. Local pilot.

Deployed teams are supported by an activated State Emergency Operations Center.

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Primary Areas of Operation

The Yukon River is 1,980 miles long (1,700 miles long in Alaska); therefore, the river is divided into three segments that are flown as the river breaks up;

Upper Yukon/Tanana - based out of Fairbanks, Eagle, or Circle Hot Springs Middle Yukon/Koyukuk based out of Galena Lower Yukon based out St. Marys
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The Kuskokwim River is 702 4/5/12 miles long and the longest

River Watch Staging Locations

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Primary Staging Secondary

USGS Topographic Maps

As the River Watch teams fly the rivers, they annotate USGS maps showing river miles with the following:

Location of ice jams High water spots Movement of water through side channels Ice condition (e.g., intact, deteriorated, rotten, etc)

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The teams uses these maps to discuss

Contact with the Local Community

When not in the air teams:

Visit communities providing face-to-face contact Compare current river ice information with historical accounts Advise local officials on ways to lessen future damages should flooding continue When risk arises, provide warnings and information to the community via local marine-band radio or through public radio interviews.

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If Significant Flooding Occurs.

The River Watch team will remain in place to assist local leaders address life safety and other immediate concerns. The team will stay throughout the response and initial damage assessment phases of the emergency to provide coordination with the SEOC. The SEOC may deploy an incident management team (IMT) to assume liaison and incident management. 4/5/12 transfer of the incident Upon

WHAT HAPPENS AND WHAT IT LOOKS LIKE

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Galena May

Bethel May 2008

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Emmonak May 2006

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Koyuk 2008

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Tuluksak May 2005

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Tanana River overflowing banks

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Ice flows near Circle, 2008

Evacuation planning is an integral part of River Watch and Fire Season Monitoring programs Two thirds of Alaskan communities are in unorganized areas and may need evacuation planning that involves assessing the threat, the area involved, and setting a workable timeframe Relatively recent evacuation efforts:

Evacuations and Evacuation Planning

Donnelly Flats Fire Near Ft. Greeley, AK Summer 1999

DHS&EM coordinated the 2006 spring flood evacuations of Koyukuk, Hughes, Emmonak, and Alakanuk

Old Minto Recovery Camp, 6060 2008

Any Questions about River Watch?

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Federal Emergency Management Agency Region 10

Robert Forgit Alaska Area Office Manager

FEMA Mission
FEMAs mission is to support our citizens and first responders to ensure that as a nation we work together to build, sustain, and improve our capability to prepare for, protect against, respond to, recover from, and mitigate all hazards.

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Basic Emergency Management Process

Emergency Management is a bottom up process, with action taken at lowest level possible first. Locals respond first with subsequent State and Federals support provided only upon request to supplement lower level efforts.
Disaster

Local Government

State Government

Federal Government

Disaster Declaration Process

Stafford Act (1974)
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Disast er threat ens or occurs Recovery Government Responds State Government Responds Governor Requests Joint Preliminary Damage Assessment (PDA) And Federal Declaration Region Administrator Analysis & Recommendation

Federal resources may deploy in advance of immediate danger Advance teams (IMAT) or other elements deploy as directed Emergency Support Functions (ESF) activated as required

FEMA responds with Teams, Supplies, Facilities, Advice, and $$$$$

FEMA Director Recommendation to President

Deploy Assets & Set up Joint Field Office (JFO)

Federal Coordinating Officer (FCO) Appointed

President Issues Federal Declaration

3 Types of Federal Disaster Assistance possible under a Major Disaster Declaration

Public Assistance: Publicly-owned facilities and infrastructure Certain non-profit entities *75/25 federal/non-federal cost share Individual Assistance (IA): SBA Loan Program for individuals in disasters Individuals & Households Program (IHP) Other Needs Assistance (ONA) *IA assistance is limited: Adjusted FY2012 maximum award is $31,400 Hazard Mitigation Grant Program (HMGP) grants to states and local governments to implement long-term hazard mitigation measures. State is grantee for HMGP, solicits and prioritizes projects for funding.
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FEMA-4050-DR-AK
Severe Winter Storms and Flooding Incident Period 8-13 Nov 2011 Presidential Declaration on 22 Dec 2011 Public Assistance (PA) Only PA Categories A-G are eligible Impacted Areas North Slope Borough Bering Straits REAA Lower Yukon REAA Lower Kuskokwim REAA Southwest Region REAA

FEMA-4050-DR-AK

Damage Estimate $2.04M Federal Share $1.53M (75%) State Share $.51M (25%) Complete Joint Field Office (JFO) Operations on 13 April 2012 Some sites are currently inaccessible and/or damage cannot be assessed due to snow and freezing conditions AK DHS&EM and FEMA Region X will revisit these sites in Spring/Summer 2012

FEMA-4054-DR-AK
Severe Storm Incident Period 15-17 Nov 2011 Presidential Declaration on 2 Feb 2012 Public Assistance (PA) Only PA Categories A-G are eligible Impacted Area Kenai Peninsula Borough Damage Estimate $1.83M Federal Share $1.37M (75%) State Share $.46M (25%) Complete site visits and JFO Operations on 13 April 2012

Break-Up Forecast Roundtable Discussion Hosted by Senator Lisa Murkowski

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NOAA AK DHSEM FEMA

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