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CU TRC VN CA MICROSOFT
- LIU TI U?
MC LC
Li m u
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2
Mc lc
PH LC CC BNG - BIU
Phn 1: Gii thch cho cu trc vn hin ti ca Microsoft..........................................5
a. Li ch t tm chn thu.....................................................................................................7
Tm chn thu t n vay.............................................................................................7
Tm chn thu t khu hao.........................................................................................8
b.Ri ro...................................................................................................................................9
V c im ngnh.....................................................................................................9
n by kinh doanh..................................................................................................11
n by ti chnh......................................................................................................12
c.Tnh linh hot ti chnh......................................................................................................13
Phn 2: nh gi tnh hiu qu trong CTV ca Microsoft.........................................14
a.Cu trc vn hin ti ca Microsoft c phi l ti u?.....................................................14
b.Phn tch mt kh nng chi tr tin mt............................................................................17
c.Cu trc vn ca Microsoft ang thay i?.......................................................................18
d.Microsoft thay i cu trc vn, nguyn nhn t u?.....................................................19
Nguyn nhn l nhng iu kin khch quan t th trng......................................19
Nguyn nhn xut pht t ni ti ca doanh nghip.................................................20
Kt lun................................................................................................................................23
Ph lc tnh ton...................................................................................................................24
Danh mc ti liu tham kho................................................................................................25
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PH LC CC BNG - BIU
BNG
Bng 1: cu trc vn ca Microsoft v IBM..........................................................................2
Bng 2: n by kinh doanh ca Microsoft giai on 2005 2008.......................................7
Bng 3: n by ti chnh ca Microsoft giai on 2005 2008...........................................8
Bng 4: cc mc xp hng tri phiu.....................................................................................9
Bng 5: kt qu xp hng tri phiu ca Microsoft v IBM..................................................9
Bng 6: li sut c bn ca Fed 9/2007 12/2008..............................................................16
Bng: so snh mc cc c im ngnh cng nghip phn cng v cng nghip phn
mm........................................................................................................................................5
BIU
Biu 1: doanh thu ca Microsoft giai on 2002 2008................................................16
Biu 2: dng tin ca Microsoft giai on 2002 2008.................................................17
Biu 3: th phn hai sn phm chnh ca Microsoft: Internet Explorer v h iu hnh
Windows..............................................................................................................................17
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IBM
Vn c phn (E)
36286
13446
N di hn (D)
22689
Tng n (TD)
33925
D/E
0%
168.49
TD/E
0%
251.93
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mang li cho IBM li ch ln t tm chn thu ca vay n, iu ny cng cng c thm cho
vic vay n l hon ton hp l ca IBM.
Tm li, cc li ch t tm chn thu hu nh khng tc ng n quyt nh cu trc
vn ca Microsoft, nhng li tc ng mnh n IBM. iu ny xy ra hu nh l do s
khc bit v ngnh kinh doanh chnh.
b. Ri ro
Trong phn ny, chng ti chi lm hai phn: th nht, nh gi ri ro thng qua cc
yu t v ngnh; th hai, nh gi ri ro thng qua n by kinh doanh v n by ti chnh,
t s gii thch ti sao Microsoft li khng s dng n trong thi gian qua.
V c im ngnh
(Cc mc : H cao; M/H kh cao; M trung bnh; M/L kh thp, thin v trung bnh; L/M kh thp;
thin v thp; L thp)
Ngun: www.standardandpoors.com
ngnh cng nghip phn mm ch yu l cht xm, khng phi chi tr nhiu cho cc
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nhin l ngnh cng nghip phn cng bt n hn. V khi ngi ta s dng thit b phn
cng, khng th no ch trong mt thi gian ngn 1 thng, 2 thng hay thm ch 1 nm ri
loi b. Thng thng i sng ca cc thit b phn cng l 3-5 nm. Do , doanh s
ca cng nghip phn cng ph thuc nhiu vo i sng ca sn phm dn n tnh bt
n trong doanh thu v thu nhp, cng nh dng tin. Ngc li, cc sn phm phn mm l
tha mn nhng c mun ca con ngi trong vic s dng cc tin ch my tnh
nhm khai thc ti a ti nguyn my tnh, cc mong mun v nhu cu ny l lin tc v
vic thc hin nhng iu ny vi cc k s phn mm khng phi l qu kh. Vi mi
phn mm c b sung tnh nng mi h li c thm doanh thu v iu ny din ra lin
tc. V vy m doanh s t phn mm nhn chung l n nh.
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nghip phn cng l kh ln nhm trang tri cho ph nghin cu, pht trin sn phm; chi
ph qung b sn phm; chi ph vn ti v mt phn ln cho chi ph u t v bo tr ti
sn c nh. Thm vo , tnh bt n cao trong doanh thu buc cc cng ty phn cng
phi duy tr mt lng tin mt nht nh c th lun c tin ti tr cho cc d n kh
thi hay tnh hung kh khn pht sinh bt ng. Cn ngnh cng nghip phn mm, v
doanh thu tng i n nh, thm vo cc khon chi ph pht sinh thp lm cho nhu
cu d tr tin mt khng cao.
Vi nhng c im ngnh nh trn, kt hp vi tnh hnh ti chnh hin ti,
Microsoft hon ton c kh nng vay n v nn c n trong cu trc vn ca mnh, nhng ti
sao gim c ti chnh ca Microsoft li khng thc hin quyt nh ny? Nh ni trn,
vic vay n ch lm cho Microsoft tng mt kh nng chi tr ca mnh m li mang li rt t
li ch t tm chn thu. Do vy m hn ch ri ro, Microsoft khng thc hin vay n.
T bo v mnh trc nhng ri ro c th c l iu hon ton hp l v Microsoft l nh
vy.
Nu ch dng li trn, dng nh l thiu tnh thuyt phc cho vic l gii cu trc vn
ca Microsoft, vy nn hy xem xt tip cc yu t tip theo c ci nhn r rng hn v
Microsoft.
n by kinh doanh
Da vo cc s liu t bo co ti chnh giai on 2005 - 2008 ca Microsoft, chng
ti tnh ton c n by kinh doanh ca Microsoft nh sau:
2005
2006
2007
2008
MSFT
3.57
0.78
0.78
1.00
IBM
-1.65
38.82
1.34
2.82
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2006
2007
2008
MSFT
1.246
0.842
1.492
1.584
IBM
2.711
1.648
1.495
1.510
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MSFT
IBM
Short-term
A-1+
A-1
Long-term
AAA
A+
Bng 5: kt qu xp hng tri phiu ca Microsoft v IBM
(Tng hp t www.standardandpoors.com)
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L = U x [1 + (1 T) x (D/A)]
trong ,
L, U ln lt l h s beta khi cng ty c s dng n v khi cng ty khng s dng n
Trong trng hp ca Microsoft, U = (h s beta hin ti ca cng ty) v cng ty hin ti
cha vay n.
Tm li, tnh ton chi ph s dng vn bnh qun nh nht, ta cn cc cng thc sau:
WACC = Wd x rd x (1 T) + We x re
rd = [R + (FV P0)/n] / [(FV + P0)/2]
re = DIV1/P0 + g = rf + x (rm rf)
L = U x [1 + (1 T) x (D/A)]
v = U
Cc s liu cho vic tnh ton c thu thp c th hin qua bng sau
Din gii
Ch tiu
Chi ph li vay ti t l n 0%
S liu
$42
FV
$1000
Gi pht hnh
P0
$963.6
$19.42
C tc d kin
D1
0.46
T l tng trng c tc
4.3%
rf
3.22%
H s beta hin ti
0.93
10 nm
Mt vi im lu :
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Cc doanh nghip Hoa K thng pht hnh tri phiu mnh gi $1000 nn y,
chng ti cng s dng mnh gi ny khi Microsoft pht hnh n.
Gi pht hnh gim tr $20 m bo tnh cnh tranh vi cc tri phiu c cng
mc ri ro, ngoi ra v chng ti cho rng Microsoft c th vay hn $500mil. (cha ti
10% tng vn ch s hu) nn chi ph pht hnh cho s lng tri phiu c gi tr trn
$500mil. l $16.4. Vy, gi pht hnh s $936.6.
C tc nm 2008 l $0.44, d kin tng khong 4.3% nn c tc d kin nm 2009 l
$0.46.
Qua qu trnh tnh ton v bin i, chng ti c kt qu nh sau:
D/A
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
42
42
44
48
54
66
84
Rd
4.65
4.65
4.85
5.26
5.87
7.09
8.93
Rd*(1-T)
2.79
2.79
2.91
3.16
3.52
4.26
5.36
Beta(BU/BL)
0.93
0.93
0.99
1.04
1.10
1.15
1.21
Re
4.32
4.39
4.46
4.52
4.59
4.66
3.22
Rm
4.41
WACC
4.32
4.23
4.15
4.11
4.16
4.46
4.50
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S liu ca nm 2008 s c dng tnh ton trong phn tch ny. Nm 2008 cng
l nm khng hong v suy thoi xy ra, do , phn tch ny s tng i ph hp.
Cng thc v quy trnh tnh ton:
1. CBr = Cbo + FCF R
2. Tnh z
3. T tr gi ca z, suy ra xc sut doanh nghip mt kh nng chi tr tin mt.
Tnh ton:
Cbo = $6.111 t (s d tin mt u nm 2008, c th ly c t BCTC nm
2007)
FCF = $10.399 t
Vi D/A = 20%.
A = $72.793.000.000
D = $14.588.600.000
R = $818.190.000 ( do li sut ca tri phiu xp hng AAA l 5.62%)
CBr = $15.631.810.000
Z = ( 0 - 15.631.810.000) / 3.528.800.000 = -4.43
P = 0%
Vi D/A = 30%.
A = $72.793.000.000
D = $21.837.900.000
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thng phiu.
Nm 2008, Microsoft ln u tin ngh n chuyn vay n ti tr cho vic mua li
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Li sut
12-16-2008
0.250 %
10-29-2008
1.000 %
10-08-2008
1.500 %
04-30-2008
2.000 %
03-18-2008
2.250 %
01-30-2008
3.000 %
01-22-2008
3.500 %
12-11-2007
4.250 %
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10-31-2007
4.500 %
09-18-2007
4.750 %
c nguy him khng? Cng ngh thng tin l mt trong nhng ngnh c thnh tch hot
ng tt nht trong thi k khng hong. Trong thi k ny, cc cng ty s ct gim
nhn cng gim chi ph v m bo nng sut lao ng, h s thay nhn cng
bng cng ngh, m c th l chips hay cc phn mm do doanh thu ca
Microsoft trong thi k ny li tng. Vic thay th cc phn mm va gip doanh
nghip ct gim tin lng cng nhn, va gip h gim mt khong ln chi ph v
phc li x hi cho cng nhn vin, nn vic thay i cng ngh thng l mt la
chn cho cc doanh nghip trong thi k khng hong.
Nguyn nhn xut pht t ni ti ca doanh nghip
y l giai on Microsoft pht trin tng i n nh, c th:
Doanh thu tng u
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Dng tin hot ng n nh, khng bin ng ln, tr vic tng mnh nm 2008 nh
gii thch trn.
R rng trong giai on ny, Microsoft c 1 v th nht nh trn th trng, khi chim
mt th phn ln cng nh doanh thu tng n nh. Cng c th ni doanh nghip ang bc vo
giai on sung mn, do vy, ri ro kinh doanh ca doanh nghip gim ng k. Nu so vi
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KT LUN
Vi mt cu trc vn kh c bit, khng s dng n, Microsoft gy nn nhiu tranh ci
v tnh ti u trong cu trc vn ca n. R rng vic xc nh cu trc vn nh th no l
rt quan trng v n s nh hng ln n gi tr doanh nghip, v theo nhiu l thuyt th
mt cu trc vn ti u nn c s kt hp gia vn c phn thng v mc vay n hp l.
T bi hc ca Microsoft c th thy cc gim c ti chnh khng nn qu bo th khi m
cng ty c iu kin thc hin vay n v gia tng gi tr doanh nghip. Tuy nhin,
trng hp ca Microsoft cng ch ra rng, mt cu trc vn khng nht thit phi l ti u
m ch cn mc l cu trc vn hp l (d c i cht bo th) th vn c th gip
doanh nghip n nn lm ra v gia tng gi tr ca doanh nghip. Thng qua bi nghin cu
v trng hp ca Microsoft, chng ti c mt cu hi nh mun c cng bn lun, liu
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c nht thit phi theo ui cu trc vn ti u hay khng khi m vi cu trc vn hin ti,
cng ty ang to nn c nhng bc tng trng tt? Hy vng, nhng bi nghin cu tip
theo v ch ny s gii quyt gip chng ti cu hi ny.
PH LC TNH TON
Tnh ton s dng cho Phn tch mt kh nng chi tr tin mt
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Nm
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Trung bnh
FCF
1,962.00
1,477.00
2,601.00
3,706.00
3,839.00
4,975.00
4,846.00
3,922.00
3,016.00
6,438.00
15,892.00
4,851.00
6,714.00
6,111.00
10,339.00
5,379.27
FCF FCF tb
(3,417.27)
(3,902.27)
(2,778.27)
(1,673.27)
(1,540.27)
(404.27)
(533.27)
(1,457.27)
(2,363.27)
1,058.73
10,512.73
(528.27)
1,334.73
731.73
4,959.73
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1. PGS.TS Trn Ngc Th, Ti chnh doanh nghip hin i (2003), NXB Thng K
2. Eugene F.Brigham, Joel F.Houston (2009), Essential of Financial Management,
Cengage Learing Asia Pte Ltd.
3. www.bloomberg.com
4. www.cnbc.com
5. www.federalreserve.gov
6. www.microsoft.com
7. www.sec.gov
8. www.standardandpoors.com
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