WiMAX Forum Indonesia Chapter:

WiMAX i E inEmerging i Economies

Fri, 26 Nov 2010, Jakarta Indonesia Intel Corporation, South-East Asia.

Werner Sutanto

Topics p
Broadband and GDP growth g Key Drivers for BB Voice ARPU declining Data demand Snapshot WiMAX Deployment in Asia Indonesia BB status and challenges its facing it s Intel The technology ingredient company Technology to address the challenges Summary

The Economics Benefit of Broadband

High HighIncomeCountries Low andMiddle Low andMiddleIncome Countries C ti

1.38 1.12 0.77 1.21

0.73 0.43

0.81 0.6 06

Fixed Telephony MobileTelephony

Internet

Broadband

GrowthImpactoftelecommunications
GDPpercentagepointincreasedueto10percentincreaseinpenetration
Qiang, Christine Z., 2009. Telecommunications and Economic Growth. Unpublished paper. World Bank, Washington, D.C. 6 Booz & Company, Digital Highways: The Role of Government In 21st-Century Infrastructure, 2009, p. 5

Broadband and Services Providing the Next Rev Growth

Voice for All o ce o

Broadband for All

SHIFTIN G FOCUS

...Data Revenues Grow While Voice Revenues Continue Decline.....

UPDATE 4-Reuters Thu Nov11, 2010 - Telecom Egypt's profit dips, eyes data growth
4

1.4 billion Internet users >150 million websites 1.5B web searches daily Worldwide 10 hours of new video uploaded to YouTube every minute 1 billion IM users 10 billion videos viewed every month , g y 100,000 blogs created daily of a trillion dollars online sales worldwide 3 million Twitter messages sent every day

Drivers

Thailand: 9 0M internet/ 1 7M broadband users in 09 9.0M 1.7M 09 Indonesia: 40M Internet/ 1.0M broadband users in 09 Vietnam: 22M Internet/ 2.9M broadband users in 09 Philippines: 26M internet/ 1.0M broadband users in 09

Status

BB penetration in some SEA countries

COUNTRY POP (1) (m): Household (m) H h ld ( ) Mobile (2) : Internet (1) :
Broadband (3) % POPs: Broadband (3) % HH:

INDONESI A 240 60 59% 17% 0.4% 1.7% 1 7%

MALAYSIA 27 6 99 % 45 % 5.0 % *50 % 50

TARGET 50% 2010

PHIL 98 20 55.1 % 26 % 1.0 % 5.0% 5 0%

VIETNAM 89 30 73 % 24 % 3.0 % 8.0 80%

TARGET 30% 2010/2011

THAILAND 68 18 81 % 13 % 2.5 % 9.4 94%

Source: Internet World Stats (2H 09), (2) ABI Research (2H 09), (3) ITU (June 09), * Mr Toh MCMC Nov10 WF-SEA - Indonesia has one of the lowest broadband penetration in the region even Indonesia has one of the lowest broadband penetration in the region even when compared to countries with lower GDP-per-capita such as Vietnam and Philippines -Big discrepancy between internet and broadband penetration rate (12.5% vs 0.1%) shows potential users for broadband connections once they are available.

Indonesia At a Glance
300 250 200 150 100 50 0 POP Cellular Internet

240

Key Penetration in millions

144
3% Househol d Pen. Pen

POP Cellular Internet Broadband

40 2
Broadband

240M pop, 60M Household, but only 1.8M BB users H h ld b t l 1 8M Large Gap Between Internet User and Broadband Availability Signify The Need and Opportunity

Terabytes/Month: demands data-focused technology

100,000,000 10,000,000 10 000 000 1,000,000 100,000 100 000 10,000 1,000 1 000 100 10 1 1995 2000 2005 Forecast
Source: Caspian Networks and Cisco Estimates Source: TechWorld, November 27, 2008

WiMax Roaming Solves 3G Capacity Crunch

3G, 3G not WiMax over-hyped apparently WiMax,

The problem with 3G is in the air and the backhaul. The network was built for narrow band and now users are downloading video on iPlayer, on what is essentially a voice network. In London my calls have started dropping and on the motorway my phone drops between cells.

2010

Which Technology..?
AT&T's iPhone Mess
The iPhone has swamped AT&T's data p network and sparked a consumer rebellion.

KDDI Confirms LTE Migration Plan But Will Use WiMAX and WIFI too
KDDIsPresidentandChairman,TadashiOnodera statedatGSMAMobileAsiaCongress2010.
TeleGeography Comms Update Wed, 17 Nov 2010

Cover Story Feb 3, 2010

A Network Optimized for Mobile Voice Cannot Handle High Numbers of Mobile Internet Users

LTE will not be sufficient to cope with such huge data demands so we also need to use other technologies such as WiMAX and Wi-Fi, Wi-

Traffic Equivalents* 1 Laptop= 15 Smartphones = 450 Voice p p p Handsets

Other brands and names are the property of their respective owners.Source: *

Cisco, 2009

WiMAX Momentum in Asia is increasing

Augere Bangla Desh
OCT 2009 Augere launches first WiMax for DhakaInitially, the Qubee service is available for businesses and residential customers in Gulshan Banani Baridhara Mirpur and Uttara Qubee will Gulshan, Banani, Baridhara, Uttara. be available across Bangladesh soon. Malaysia: P1 W1MAX Celebrates One Year Anniversary with 100,000 Subscribers
Aug09: We are 1 yr into our mission to provide broadband technology that reaches out to everyone in Malaysia. As one of the forerunners i th world for large scale 802.16e 2.3GHz th f in the ld f l l 802 16 2 3GH commercial WiMAX deployment, were very proud of what weve achieved today from ground zero. Michael Lai CEO P1

Japan: UQ Announces Start of "UQ WiMAX" Business

On February 26, 2009, UQ Communications started UQ WiMAX Service. This is a global-standard "future broadband" service, enabling faster mobile data transmissions using Mobile WiMAX

Philippines: Globe WiMAX passes 30K subs in August.

June 11, 2009: Intel is delighted to take part in the launch of Globe Telecoms WiMAX services in the Philippines, said Navin Shenoy, Intel Corporation Vice President and APAC y, p General Manager.

RETHINK RESEARCH Wed 13 Oct 2010

KT expand its 3W 4G service WiMAX W CDMA 3W WiMAX, W-CDMA and Wi-Fi, across Korea By March, KT says it will be the first carrier in the world to offer nationwide Mobile WiMAX service, covering 82 cities across Korea, or 85% of the population.

Malaysia: YTL Communications

KUALA LUMPUR (Nov 19, 2010): YTL Communications Sdn Bhd today launched the world's first fully converged 4G mobile Internet service with voice offering the industry's lowest rates at nine sen a minute, per SMS or per 3MB of data through its pay-as-you-go plan

10

All Deployments are 802.16e

WiMAX Direct Impact on Broadband Modem Pricing

Wireless Notebook Modem ASP Trajectory

$150
2.5-3G Cellular

Since Intel came out with WiMAX 16e - Echo Peak

3 Chip .11N+.16E 11N+ 16E WiFi .11ABG WiFi .11N Single Chip .11N+.16E**

$0

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

*ABI Research, Q307 preliminary ** Intel Estimates

Multi Comms Multi-Comms for the Next Decade

Discrete

AP

4G 3G 2G WiWi-Fi BT GPS

Discrete

BB

Integration Of Technologies T SoC A d Discrete Solutions I t ti T h l i To S C And Di t S l ti Dependent Upon Cost and Power Targets

Intel a Technology Ingredient Company

Intel has been for sometime committed to expand our silicon offerings to include additional communications silicon in addition to Wi-Fi and 4G The f t Th future of networks will not be a single technology solution, but rather Service f t k ill t b i l t h l l ti b t th S i Providers will rely on multiple technologies deployed that client devices will need to be ready to take advantage of and move between networks. Our O communications product portfolio iincludes Wi Fi WiMAX and soon 3G and LTE. i ti d t tf li l d Wi-Fi, WiMAX, d d LTE We are a Multi-Comm Technology Company. TDD-LTE solutions are still a few years away and most LTE networks will take several years to reach the level of maturity of current WiMAX networks.

Intel will deliver solutions as we believe the market need develops. WiMAX remains our preferred solution for WWAN today, due to its i f d l ti f t d d t it TTM (Time To Market), cost and performance advantages.

Mature WiMAX Technology Help Drive Broadband Acceleration

USB Dongles Pricing dropped from $70 (2009) to $40 (2010) Dongles continue to come-down to $30 or lower in 2011 Embedded module cost $50 in 2009, now less than $30 in 2010, and continue going down to $ in 2011 and lower in 2012 $20 Embedded WiMAX make it possible to support various devices ie. handheld, smartphones, VoIP, handheld smartphones VoIP automotive applications smart metering applications, smart-metering

Key Take-Away
Increasing broadband penetration is a matter of crucial National and Economic Interest for Indonesia. Due to challenges in wired broadband deployment and 3G limitation the country must wired-broadband limitation, deploy the latest, matured, wireless broadband technology available today Two wireless technology officially included in IMT-Advanced as 4G One is and has been here for many years with mature ecosystems - WiMAX The other one is just entering the marketing hype-stage, with NO mature ecosystems y yet LTE. WiMAX is a mature technology and available now Indonesia have several WiMAX 16e manufacturers compliant to TKDN requirement by the government government. Each month of delayed deployment means hampering the growth of the Countrys Economy. A Waiting Game is a Losing Game

WiMAX Forum Indonesia Chapter:

WiMAX inEmerging Economies

Wed, 26 Nov 2010, Jakarta Indonesia Intel Corporation, South-East Asia.

Werner Sutanto