Senior Manager's Guide To Project Risk Management - Free

In the beginning was THE PLAN. And then came The Assumptions.
And The Plan was without substance. And The Assumptions were without form. And darkness was upon the face of the Workers. And they spoke among themselves, saying, 'It is a crock of s--t, it stinks.' And the workers went unto their Supervisors, and said, 'It is a pail of dung, and none may abide the odour thereof.' And the Supervisors went unto their Managers, saying 'It is a container of excrement, and it is very strong, such that none may abide it.' And the Managers went unto their Directors, saying, 'It is a vessel of fertiliser, and none may abide its strength.' And the Directors spoke among themselves saying one to another, 'It contains that which aids plant growth, and it is very strong.' And the Directors went to the Vice-Presidents, saying unto them, 'It promotes growth, and it is very powerful.' And the Vice-Presidents went to the President, saying unto him, 'This new plan will actively promote the growth and vigour of the company, with powerful effects.' And the President looked upon The Plan, and saw that it was good. And The Plan became policy. And that is how S--t happens.
Slip: Being first at the bar Float: Remaining Beer kitty Milestone: Paul buys a round
Results are promising : Turned power on and no smoke detected -- this time... Elements will be phased in Good, gradually as butperhaps a the software little more matures: detail here ? It's late!
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Simon Harris, PMP, CGEIT, IPMA-D, P2
Logical Model Ltd 2010
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Free Version
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This is a complete training course in our project skills series! For FREE if used for personal, individual development!! No catches everything needed is within this file If you want to use this intellectual property as a commercial offering thats fine too as long as you cut me in I dont want much !! Pre-arranged commercial use removes this notice, gives you animated slides that build procedures step-by-step, also step-by-step exercise files, instructor notes, suggested time-line for delivery and support
For non pre-arranged commercial use (IE where you charge a fee) I hereby offer you a contract to use this materials, without prior notice in a commercial context at 1,000 per day or per copy which ever is the greater (thats an offer and notice of consideration, use will constitute acceptance and forms contract) as soon as I become aware of use I will start proceedings to collect fees due If in doubt Ask
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Logical Model Ltd 0845 2 57 57 07
Logical Model Ltd 2007 Logical Model Ltd Simon.Harris@c2.ie
Introductions & Logistics
Senior Management Awareness: Risk Simon Harris, PMP, CGEIT
Those who think education expensive have not yet accounted what they pay daily for ignorance
Logical Model Lt 2007 Logical Model Ltd Simon.Harris@c2.ie
Course Objectives
Place senior managements role, rights and duties in context for excellent risk management Overview the process for managing risk Share the vocabulary
Chapter 1: An Overview of Risk Management Concepts, Tools & Steps
Domestics
Logical Model Ltd 2007 Logical Model Ltd Simon.Harris@c2.ie Some pages numbers are omitted it isnt an error its my means to insert pages later without renumbering everything afterwards
Cheese
I had to do something to earn my current Cheese Having Cheese makes me happy The more important that my Cheese is to me the more I want to hold on to it Change happens: the faceless they will (re)move your old Cheese Noticing small changes in my Cheese helps me anticipate change in advance & adapt to big changes when they arrive Smell the Cheese often to check for small changes The world changes, my Cheese is moved: If I do not change I will become extinct I did things last week. I had Cheese last week. If I do things differently next week I may not have Cheese Thinking about not having Cheese makes me afraid Being afraid stops me doing things differently I have to ask myself What would I do if I were not afraid When I stop feeling afraid I start feeling good Imagining myself enjoying New Cheese is the first step leading me to it
Inspired by Who Moved My Cheese by Dr Spenser Johnson an excellent 45 minute read
Cheese
10
Movement in a new direction helps me find New Cheese The sooner I let go of stale old Cheese the sooner I find New Cheese It is safer to search for New Cheese than remain in a Cheese-less state Old beliefs do not lead to New Cheese Beliefs only change when we believe that there is New Cheese to be discovered and enjoyed The new ideas in this or any course need conscious effort to be understood
Worse!, it takes much more effort to put them into use
Examine your Old Cheese for mould ((problems with current working) Imagine your self enjoying your New Cheese (benefits of new practices)
Consider the steps to move from one comfort zone to a new one
Who needs to be involved, What actions, When & What is in it for them
Share your insights & FUD (fear uncertainty and doubt) in class
Discussing implementation challenges helps you prepare for action Gives comfort knowing others have been & are succeeding (and helps networking)
Promise yourself 1 action now, with a date. On your return to the office plan your intended 10 achievements with a milestone each Friday till done
Free SMA Materials: My Assumption

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A typical reader of these materials probably sponsors projects You may have or may soon have real-world project responsibilities perhaps with little exposure to structured project control frameworks Senior management awareness (SMA) materials suggest: What to look for in what your staff do for comfort they are doing it right The principles, vocabulary and structures they know and that will aid you share experience, define performance standards and delegate objectives If you want to know more about how (and why) to use the tools noted here-in other free courses covering relevant skills are available at on the web-site. You may benefit from one or some of them in parallel with this one If you would like a quick overview of just the why to use these tools in reality then my white papers on the use of PBS/ WBS, Doing risk, Post-It planning and more can be found by search simon harris on the web-sites of the American Society for The Advancement of Project Management and PM Today
PRINCE2 is a trademark of the OGC in the UK and other countries and they demand their recognition with this note on everything bureaucracy!
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Who Are We All?

12
Name, Role and Organisation: Telling others about yourself Something about your current cheese
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Style
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2 Types of session (mostly alternate) Input: explanation of tools and techniques

me you, Please interrupt and question as soon and whenever you need to
Use: exploration of meaning

Best if it is 90% you, debate and argue application, interpretation, variation A place to learn from mistakes before they have consequences
3 Types of Slide The core message: Places where we dwell

Focus of what we need to cover to complete the course
Sign-post, objectives and summaries: Navigational elements to give context Reference, detail and expansion: Places we may flash-past (up to you to say if you wish to dwell longer)
Support what we are covering
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Feedback & Learning log

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Events run successfully when they use controls effectively Our controls include your feedback I try hard not to offend, bamboozle or bore you, but I also try hard to give striking examples, jolt your current thinking and hold-up a mirror When you have feedback advise me in whatever way is comfortable for you so I can act
EG: Comment, in person in class/ at a break/ at the end of day or Add a note to one of the Ground-Rules flip-charts or Blu-tac a note or stick a Post-it to the back of the training room door
While comments on the end of event form are always welcomed and acted upon they are too late to make the event better for you If I dont know its unlikely I will fix it, If I do know I can at least try Eg Course pace, Topic depth, Time given each topic, Heating/ lighting, Exercises & debrief, Anecdotes & jokes, Catering or parking, Course notes and pens, etc etc etc without limit Notes:
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Who Are Logical Model Ltd (LML)?

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A niche consultancy that delivers training, mentoring and consulting services around control and governance of project based benefits realisation LMLs purpose is to improve the project management state of the art through popularisation of what is common-sense (which I suggest is obvious after it is observed not necessarily is widely-known)
Consultancy & training in Basic structured project management Tools and techniques for advanced project & programme management Leading complex projects Recovery of struggling projects Creating & running PMOs Project risk and quality management Using Earned Value Analysis Board briefings on project control & governance
Continued Dimension Four Benefits Realisation Method training and consultancy PRINCE2 use in the real-world & PRINCE2 Exam preparation (but only
if you insist on exams. I believe they create the wrong focus & actually destroy PM value to a business)
Implementing IT Governance using the CobiT Framework Implementing Benefits Realisation & Lessons Learned processes
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Chapter 1: Concepts & Foundations
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Next
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What is Risk Uncertainty Unknown unknowns Definitions Predictability Chapter Summary:
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What is Risk
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Characteristics of a risk An uncertain cause or uncertain causes resulting in A future state with positive and negative () consequences one or more people care about A useful definition A future state that may or may not arise Uncertainty of outcome whether Risks have events with a probability Impacts with a magnitude Are primary, secondary or residual
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Uncertainty
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Uncertainty applies to any future state with a probability above zero and below 1 Causal events often categorised in various ways Specific or assignable EG Car-crash, Flat tire Random or un-assignable EG RAG traffic lights, Volume of traffic Impact of risks Contributes to the allowances required for time, resource et.al. Best case = all good uncertainties occur and no bad ones happen Worst case = all bad uncertainties occur and no good ones happen Probability of either extreme is low*
Probability (P%) of extremes = P%-event_1 * P%-event_2 *
P% * number of opportunities = frequency of occurrence P% * Impact = Significance

*More on probabilities in the Assessment chapter
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LM 01/02 The Guide to Risk and Opportunity Management in Projects
Unknown unknowns
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Definitions
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An element of the project whose values are material to planning but unknown in some or all aspects (may be addressed by an ASSUMPTION) Risk-1: Any uncertainty with a consequence facing the project Or Risk-2: A negative uncertainty (Day-to-day usage) Or Risk-3: An uncertainties whose probability & impact are known IE the only remaining uncertainty is will we be (un-)lucky Eg Playing Russian Roulette Threat: An uncertainty whose aggregate impacts are negative Opportunity: An uncertainty whose aggregate impacts are positive Problem A negative impact whose probability is ceratin and whose impact or trigger is with-in the authority & expertise of the owner to deal with it Issue A negative impact whose P% is certain and whose impact or trigger is outwith the authority or expertise of the owner to deal with The response to an issue is always either transfer or accept Normally transfer = escalation when authority is the limiting factor, often transfer = delegation to technically able resources when expertise is the limiting factor Bonus An opportunity whose P% is 1 Windfall An opportunity whose P% is 1 and existence was not pre-defined
Uncertainty:
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Predictability
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Between certain and uncertain can be predictability Statistics Cards and dice are closed-outcome sets Projects are not
What are all the causes of being late? What are consequences to all the stakeholders?
Projects risk management is a form of insurance Relies on large population of examples Never a guarantee 1 in a million still happens
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Chapter Summary:
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What is Risk Uncertainty Unknown unknowns Definitions Predictability Chapter Summary:
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Summary of Risk Process steps
Chapter 2: 9 Key Steps in Risk Management
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Next:
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9 Steps Step-1 Awareness A Risk Maturity Scale Adapted from CobIT Risk Culture, Tone and Attitude Towards Risk Ownership & Appetite (Risk Seeking v. Risk Avoiding) Policy Overview-2 Identification and the Proper Description of Risks Overview-3 Assessment tools: Ordinal Scales, Typical Risk Scoring Overview-4 Response Development Overview-5 Response Selection Overview-6 Preventative & Contingency: Showing Cost & Schedule Contingency Overview-7 Execution, Monitoring Control & Reporting Overview-8 Retirement Overview-9 Record Keeping & Audit: The Risk Management Plan & Risk Register
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9 Steps
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Iden
enc ting Co n
A ss
A wa rene ss
ent rem Reti
Prev
ito Mon
R es
Res
ent essm
tion tifica
se pon
s e D ev e po n
enti ve
ring
Co nt i n ge
Re s er v es
S elec tio
lo pm e n t
Record Keeping
nt
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1 Awareness
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tific Iden n atio
ent essm Ass
Awa ss rene
en rem Reti
y enc Reserves ting Con
on enti Prev
ng itori Mon
Res se pon
Res se pon
Devel opm ent
Contin gent
Record Keeping
Select ion
Awareness is FIRST but is not a step Must be constant Stuff we know we know And know we dont know And recognise that is not everything there is to know Risk awareness is a culture Promoted by open, receptive senior management Senior management is accountable Everyone is responsible Shareholders pay the price
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A Risk Maturity Scale Adapted from CobIT 4.1

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0 Non-existent: Risk assessment for processes & business decisions does not occur 1 Initial/Ad Hoc: Risks are considered in an ad hoc manner Awareness of the importance of risk management is emerging 2 Repeatable : A risk assessment is subjective, but an approach is being developed A systematic approach to mitigations is emerging 3 Defined: Policy and procedures define who, when & how risk is handled Identified risks are managed through their life-cycle 4 Managed: Trained staff perform assessment, management of risk runs to standard procedures, actions and achievements are measured Management monitors risk exposure Risk management may be being automated 5 Optimised: Managers and staff in all areas understand and fulfil their roles in an integrated risk processes that spans the entire organisation Changes to the organisation are assessed for their affect on risk management
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Risk Culture
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Culture is the shared reactions to common triggers (learned scripts) What everyone in a community considers normal
You shoot the messenger: now what? How many ways are there to shoot the messenger Does every threat demand eradication? Do the 11th hour heroes deserve to be rewarded? Is that plan realistic How much emotion, hope, science and reason does it contain
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Tone
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Senior managements set the tone of an organisation What is accepted
Well known standards for acceptable exist: Turnbull/ Cadbury, Basel-II, Sarbanes-Oxley/ COSO etc Corporate risk Governance risk
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Policy
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What is policy A policy is a plan of action to guide decisions and actionsmay limit the discretion of individuals http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/policy What is a risk management policy Reference point for confirmation of adequate of Risk Management Plans
Guidance for extension of RMP in new circumstances
Communicates to all stakeholders the limits of risk appetite Procedures and process translate policy into day to day actions that meet measurable objectives
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Example Risk Policy

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Hospital Infectious Disease Unit Any risk of cross-infection no matter how minor or remote is to be subject to all possible steps to eradicate it Building site Not hard hat, no boots: no work today Bank Treasury function Aggregate exposure may not exceed (30% of) capital adequacy reserves Virgin/ Richard Branson Oh screw-it! Lets do it Oil drilling platform ALARP: Each identified risk is to be evaluated and its profile reduced to be As Low As Is Reasonably Practical
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Policy Statement
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Suggest policy statements that would apply to
Your departments service provision
Your service users view of the service you provide
From any other perspective that is a real need when you return to your workplace
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Attitude Towards Risk

35
For all the science wrapped around it, in the final analysis risk is an emotional, personal, subjective topic
What is Risk Tolerance or Risk Appetite
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Ownership & Appetite

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What is ownership Willingness to act Who owns risks Impact owners fund risk management Action owners enact risk responses What is a risk appetite The degree of action an owner will fund The degree to which a risk drives an owner to action Owner has the appetite (or not!) How is appetite measured, communicated and monitored
Tolerance Impact Actions
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Risk Seeking v. Risk Avoiding

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Risk Appetite
Would you rather have a small Sure-Thing or [P% chance of Gain and (100-P%) chance of Loss] When chasing targets we tend to be risk seeking when protecting the status quo we tend to be risk averse
Averse
Seeking Size of Risk

200
Sure Thing
100
Value at Risk
Probability % Factored Value Averse Choice Slight Averse Neutral Choice Slight Seeking
10.00% 20 ST-100 ST ST ST
20.00% 40 ST-100 ST ST ST
30.00% 60 ST-100 ST ST ST
40.00% 80 ST-100 ST ST
50.00% 100 ST-100 ST
60.00% 120 ST-100 ST V@R
70.00% 140 ST-100
80.00% 160 ST-100 V@R
90.00% 180 ST-100 V@R-200 V@R V@R V@R-200
V@R V@R V@R-200
V@R V@R V@R-200
V@R
V@R V@R-200
Logical Model Ltd 0845 2 57 57 07 Seeking Choice V@R-200
Logical 2007 Logical V@R-200Model Ltd V@R-200 Model Ltd Simon.Harris@c2.ie V@R-200 V@R-200
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Attitude to Risk
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You have been given, free! 9 prize draw tickets. You can sell each one for 100 or keep until the draw when you will get either 200 or nothing Each draw has different odds of winning Step 1: 2m Individually: Of the tickets itemised here which tickets will you sell? Ticket-1: 90% chance of 200 & 10% chance of 0 Ticket-2: 80% chance to win and 20% chance of nothing T3: 70% chance to win 200 and 30% chance of nothing T4: 60/40 T5: 50/50 T6: 40/60 T7: 30/70 T8: 20/80 Ticket-9: 10% chance of 200 and 90% chance of nothing Step 2: 2m You have the chance to buy 1 of each ticket at 100 each of your own money. Which will you buy? Any difference to sales? Step 3: Compare with your neighbours Same choices?
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Overview-2 Identification
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Threat An assets we value is vulnerable But not already lost
Opportunity A result we prize is achievable But not assured
Describing risks well must state Event: probability Outcome: impact Proximity: event horizon Seriousness: priority of action Urgency: action horizon Growth: impact evolution
Assets
Threats
Vulnerabilities
Risk analysis
Risks
Countermeasures
Risk management
From CRAMM: CCTA Risk Assessment Method

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Proper Risk Description

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A risk is a future conditional state that someone cares about To be well expressed it must state CAUSES and CONSEQUENCES per stakeholder There is a risk that event will result in outcome Cause(s), Future state (Condition), Consequence(s) Alternative structure Identification SHOULD NOT do more than just identify! Why not?
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Overview-3 Assessment
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Event/ Probability (Cause)
Outcome/ Impact (Effect)
Probability Common As likely as not Rare Impact
Scales Qualitative Quantitative
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Ordinal Scales
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Linear probability scale and geometric impact scales 1%, 2%, 4%, 8%, 16% Define with visceral statements e.g. threat scale (see PMToday article for +ve scales) 10 Project Very Low Low Moderate High Objective .05 .1 .2 .4 9 Government falls Cost PM has < 5% Cost Cost decision 8 Make global authority to Increase needs FDs decide approval headlines Schedule Slippage Slippage Overall Dates will within float within Project miss external Execs Slippage obligations 2 Causes minor tolerances 15-40% inconvenience Scope & Optional Should of quality items 1 Affect hard to Quality aspects removed measure reduced from delivery Ordinal and non-linear: Staff Some Volatile staff Multiple loss 6 to 7 is not Moral grumbles may resign of skilled staff proportional to 7 to 8
Very High .8
Overall Project Schedule Slips >120% Acceptance criteria breach notliquidatable Loss of crucial senior staff
Impact Scale adapted from the Project Management Body of Knowledge

42
Typical Risk Scoring

43
r near y Liinea l llly L a m Norm a o 99% Nor% t o 99% 11% t
99.9% 80% 60% 40% 20%
99%x1% 80%x1% 60%x1% 40%x1% 40 20%x1% 20 1%
200 160 120 80 20%x2% 40 2%
400 320 240 160 20%x4% 80 4%
800 740 480 320 20%x8% 160 8%
1600 1280 960 640 20%*16%

ic metr ic %,, etr 6 Geo m eo en ften G , 8%,, 116% O ft % , 8% O , 4% % 4 2 , %,, 2 % 11%
16%
<200
<800
>=800
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Overview-4 Response Development

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Identifying what we could do
Action to reduce impact H Impact (Severe) Action to reduce likelihood
About the event Affects probability or proximity About the impact Probability 1 (Rare)
99 (Common)
Record options in the Risk Register
Threat Analysis
L (Trivial)
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Risk Response Hierarchy

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Very high & above Physical Controls Very high & above Physical Controls Multiple safeguards from all classes Preventative measure Multiple safeguards from all classes Preventative measure High 2. Procedural Controls High 2. Procedural Controls 1Safeguards in at least 3 classes Preventative measure Safeguardsin at least 3 classes < in < 1 in Preventative measure including contingent in 100 <1 in 10 10,000 1,000 <1 including contingent 3. Human oriented 3. Human oriented Health & Financial Extremely Moderate Very Environment Reputation Loss Training, roles & responsibilities, Qualitative Moderate Unlikely Unlikely Possible Training, roles & responsibilities, Saftey Unlikely Safeguards in 2 categories including supervision Safeguards in 2 categories including supervision Long term contingent contingent Preventative measure Multiple wide-spread National Crisis Crisis Crisis Crisis Preventative measure Low Deaths Contingency arrangements 100m damage > Catastrophic Low Medium High High High 4. 4. Contingency Outrage arrangements Death or Localised Local Crisis Crisis Crisis Crisis Safeguards in -at least contingent Safeguards in at least contingent Post event containment Injurys longPost event containment term Outrage >10m Crisis Low High classes Medium High classes Wide Very Low Very Low spread short Regulatory Safeguards may not be required High Injury term Censure >1m Severe LowSafeguards may not be required Moderate High Very 1. 1.
Time off Short term work localised Easy CleanFirst aid up Complaints
> 1 in 10 Likely Crisis High Crisis High Unaccep table Very High
Local Media & Customer impact >100k >10k
Moderate Low
Low Very Low
Low Low
Moderate High Low
Moderate High
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Overview-5 Response Selection

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Selecting what we will do Decision making based on Seriousness Urgency & Growth Add to Plan-A and Plan-B (Project) Risk responses are not managed FROM the Risk Register Today, tomorrow, next week Urgency Growth ( and shrinkage )
Daily Cycle Time
Impact
Production
Billing
Payroll
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Overview-6 Preventative & Contingent Responses

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Plan-A is activity for what we know-we-know All normal work plus threat prevention and impact preparation Plan-B activity for what we know we dont know Contingent actions Responses to the event belong in Plan A activities and budgets Before the event Likewise creating plan B is within Plan A
Responses to the impact belong in Plan B Prepared in advance Used in arrears Here comes the fire-brigade Only a fool would expect weve thought of everything that will happen!
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Showing Cost Contingency

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3pt estimates yield best/ worst (range of variation) & expected cost / schedule Sum costs , calculate project (or phase or path) contingency Plot on cumulative cost curve Other Allowances & Reserve sd = (sd1**2 + sd2**2 + sd3**2 + )
e = ( e1 + e2 + e3 + e4) or staff-days or any other quantity
Tolerance? Best & Worst Case
Time SD
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Showing Schedule Contingency

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Possible Task Duration
D 4,7,11
G 4,4,4
J 7,8,10
Pros and Cons of Pros and Cons of showing contingency showing contingency explicitly? explicitly?
A 1,4,6
B 2,3,6
E 3,3,4
H 8,10,15
L 2,2,2
Contingency 1.66
C 4,5,7
F 6,8,10
I 2,3,3
K 4,5,6
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Overview-7 Execution, Monitoring & Response

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Changes to SUG inform successive actions

H Seriousness (Severe) H Seriousness (Severe)
When is enough response enough ?
Probability 1 (Rare)
99 (Common)
Probability 1 (Rare)
99 (Common)
L (Trivial)
Opptnty Threat
L (Trivial)
Maintaining visibility on what may yet transpire Actions when it is no-longer a may-be
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Reporting Contingency
51
% Contingency in hand
Aggregate: Contingency used & retired
Retirement of contingency that is not used
Fear
Plan-A plus contingency use Plan A without Impact Costs Best case spend
Hope
51
Overview-8 Retirement
52
Update to plans, budgets, and actions when the event is past It did happen
It didnt happen
Handover
It hasnt happened but still could, and the project is closing
52
Overview-9 Record Keeping & Audit Trails

53
Why keep records: what is the purpose What uses are made of the records we might create
What content must be in the record to be fit for purpose
List the steps required to achieve the purposes above
53
The Risk Management Plan

54
The RMP sets out rights and duties, procedures and authorities Assigns to people and triggers
Why create a RMP? What headings do we need in the RMP? Should the RMP be a template? Yes Why No Why What is a Risk Register (or Risk Log) How is the RR related to the RMP
54
Risk Register
55
Unique Identifier Description Risk Category Impact owner & stakeholders Related risk events & outcomes Location (physical or logical) EG WBS or tasks reference Triggers & warning signs Risk Response Plan (Possible responses) Preventative Contingent ( for each the Actions, Costs, Last option date, Affect on P, I & Proximity )
Audit trail of historic & current Probability & why Impact: Cost, Schedule, Quality etc & why Proximity (Timing)
Retirement date Option loss
EMV / EUV (Current = Residual Risk) Selected responses

Action owner Description and costs Linked actions Secondary risks
55
Risk Process
56
Draw a flow-chart of the risk management process showing where decisions are made, records created or updated Who is involved in each step/ decision/ record-making
56
Chapter Summary:
57
9 Steps 1 Awareness A Risk Maturity Scale Adapted from CobIT Risk Culture, Tone and Attitude Towards Risk Ownership & Appetite (Risk Seeking v. Risk Avoiding) Policy Overview-2 Identification and the Proper Description of Risks Overview-3 Assessment tools: Ordinal Scales, Typical Risk Scoring Overview-4 Response Development Overview-5 Response Selection Overview-6 Preventative & Contingency: Showing Cost & Schedule Contingency Overview-7 Execution, Monitoring Control & Reporting Overview-8 Retirement Overview-9 Record Keeping & Audit: The Risk Management Plan & Risk Register
57
58 Logical Model Ltd are specialists in project management knowledge transfer to your people
For further help & assistance Assist@LogicalModel.Net
+44 (0) 84 52 57 57 07
Continued Consultancy & training in Dimension Four Benefits Basic structured project Realisation Method training and management consultancy Tools and techniques for advanced PRINCE2 Exam preparation & project & programme management PRINCE2 use in the real-world Leading complex projects Implementing IT Governance using Recovery of struggling projects the CobiT Framework Creating & running PMOs Implementing Benefits Realisation & Project Risk and Quality Lessons Learned processes Management Using Earned Value Analysis Board briefings on project control & Logical Model Ltd 0845 2 57 57 07 Logical Model Ltd 2007 Logical Model Ltd Simon.Harris@c2.ie governance
58
Course Summary
59
Senior managements role is to own the risk IE the right to enjoy the impacts: threats and rewards Duty to fund and support the process Make delegation and escalation process clear The process is: Awareness, CCC ID, Assess, Response ID, Response selection, Response execution, re-assessment, , closure or hand-over Vocabulary: Event/ Causes/ Probability, Impacts/ Outcomes/ Time, Cost Uncertainty, Threat, Opportunity We have barely scratched the surface
59
60 Applying The Courses Messages

To ourselves, our bosses, peers, customers and reports
What will you do? How? When?
I expect you think you understood what you perceived I might have said, but do you realise that what I said may not have been what I meant, or what you heard while it may still result in you having gained what you needed to gain from listening!
60
Applying the Courses Messages

61
List What we heard For each item What we will do with it. How & the stumbling blocks to overcome Action plan Define your vision & goals, the impacts & projects plus governance structure Draw-up a list of course based outcomes that are attractive to your group Everything you need to do is in the course materials Feelings? Optimistic?, Excited about/ depressed by?
61
In this session The context for Implementation
END
62
63 There are other free sources of our value-add on our web-site www.logicalmodel.net
For further help & assistance Assist@LogicalModel.Net
+44 (0) 84 52 57 57 07
Continued Consultancy & training in Dimension Four Benefits Basic structured project Realisation Method training and management consultancy Tools and techniques for advanced PRINCE2 Exam preparation & project & programme management PRINCE2 use in the real-world Leading complex projects Implementing IT Governance using Recovery of struggling projects the CobiT Framework Creating & running PMOs Implementing Benefits Realisation & Project Risk and Quality Lessons Learned processes Management Using Earned Value Analysis Board briefings on project control & Logical Model Ltd 0845 2 57 57 07 Logical Model Ltd 2007 Logical Model Ltd Simon.Harris@c2.ie governance
63

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Senior Manager's Guide To Project Risk Management - Free

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In the beginning was THE PLAN. And then came The Assumptions.

Simon Harris, PMP, CGEIT, IPMA-D, P2

Logical Model Ltd 2010

Introductions & Logistics

Senior Management Awareness: Risk Simon Harris, PMP, CGEIT

Logical Model Ltd 0845 2 57 57 07

Logical Model Ltd 2007 Logical Model Ltd Simon.Harris@c2.ie

Logical Model Ltd 0845 2 57 57 07

Logical Model Ltd 2007 Logical Model Ltd Simon.Harris@c2.ie

Chapter 1: An Overview of Risk Management Concepts, Tools & Steps

Logical Model Ltd 0845 2 57 57 07

Inspired by Who Moved My Cheese by Dr Spenser Johnson an excellent 45 minute read

Free SMA Materials: My Assumption

Logical Model Ltd 0845 2 57 57 07

Who Are We All?

Logical Model Ltd 0845 2 57 57 07

Logical Model Ltd 2007 Logical Model Ltd Simon.Harris@c2.ie

2 Types of session (mostly alternate) Input: explanation of tools and techniques

Use: exploration of meaning

3 Types of Slide The core message: Places where we dwell

Feedback & Learning log

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Logical Model Ltd 2007 Logical Model Ltd Simon.Harris@c2.ie

Who Are Logical Model Ltd (LML)?

Logical Model Ltd 0845 2 57 57 07

Logical Model Ltd 2007 Logical Model Ltd Simon.Harris@c2.ie

Chapter 1: Concepts & Foundations

What is Risk Uncertainty Unknown unknowns Definitions Predictability Chapter Summary:

Logical Model Ltd 0845 2 57 57 07

Logical Model Ltd 2007 Logical Model Ltd Simon.Harris@c2.ie

Logical Model Ltd 0845 2 57 57 07

Logical Model Ltd 2007 Logical Model Ltd Simon.Harris@c2.ie

P% * number of opportunities = frequency of occurrence P% * Impact = Significance

Logical Model Ltd 0845 2 57 57 07

*More on probabilities in the Assessment chapter

LM 01/02 The Guide to Risk and Opportunity Management in Projects

Logical Model Ltd 0845 2 57 57 07

Logical Model Ltd 2007 Logical Model Ltd Simon.Harris@c2.ie

Logical Model Ltd 0845 2 57 57 07

Logical Model Ltd 2007 Logical Model Ltd Simon.Harris@c2.ie

What is Risk Uncertainty Unknown unknowns Definitions Predictability Chapter Summary:

Logical Model Ltd 0845 2 57 57 07

Logical Model Ltd 2007 Logical Model Ltd Simon.Harris@c2.ie

Summary of Risk Process steps

Chapter 2: 9 Key Steps in Risk Management

Logical Model Ltd 0845 2 57 57 07

Logical Model Ltd 0845 2 57 57 07

ent rem Reti

Logical Model Ltd 2007 Logical Model Ltd Simon.Harris@c2.ie

tific Iden n atio

ent essm Ass

y enc Reserves ting Con

Devel opm ent

Logical Model Ltd 0845 2 57 57 07

Logical Model Ltd 2007 Logical Model Ltd Simon.Harris@c2.ie

A Risk Maturity Scale Adapted from CobIT 4.1

Logical Model Ltd 0845 2 57 57 07

Senior managements set the tone of an organisation What is accepted

Logical Model Ltd 0845 2 57 57 07

Logical Model Ltd 2007 Logical Model Ltd Simon.Harris@c2.ie

Logical Model Ltd 0845 2 57 57 07

Logical Model Ltd 2007 Logical Model Ltd Simon.Harris@c2.ie

Example Risk Policy

Logical Model Ltd 0845 2 57 57 07

Suggest policy statements that would apply to

Your departments service provision