Predicting the future

From RSA animates and TED talks to grassroots movements like Permaculture, Zeitgeist and Transition 2.0 we seem to be inundated with possible visions for the near future (next two decades) Among the variety mentioned there seems to be a consensus around three dominant issues that will shape our future, namely peak oil, climate change and technology. After following these three issues in great detail for nearly five years, my views have drifted gradually away from the popular wisdom. So in this article I will try to demonstrate the cracks in the accepted positions on peak oil, climate change and technology trends, and conclude with defining the one major flaw that runs through all three.

Peak Oil Firstly for the cracks, Expert geologists have heralded the moment of peak oil on multiple occasions since the turn of the but yet the production keeps rising on (1). As I write this the oil exports or Iraq, Iran and Libya are at their lowest point in recent times and still supply outstrips demand. Then there is the unconventional oil, just in Colorado (Green River) recoverable shale oil reserves are bigger than the official global crude reserves (2). You may wonder why you didnt see this on a big press conference with a bunch of oil executives hugging each other, perhaps it is because they stand to benefit from a perception that oil is scarce and running out, this perception drives the oil price up, and consequently the corporate profits. All things considered oil is still a finite resource and its abundance for the next two decades comes at an extreme price for the environment, just google tar sands, shale oil and deep sea drilling to find out. Clearly the amount of this resource is not the main problem, the problem is that the world population is dependent on a resource controlled by two cartels OPEC and the four sisters (Exxon Mobil, Chevron Texaco, BP Amoco and Royal Dutch/Shell). The former is a union of monarchies and dictatorships and the latter has committed numerous crimes against the environment, indigenous peoples and actively suppressed clean alternatives both through lobbying and suppressing technology by purchasing and freezing patents. To cap this tragedy off its worth mentioning the oil speculators on Wall Street who have siphoned off billions from the market and in the process separated inflated the oil price beyond any natural relationship with demand (3).

Climate Change Climate change is a new term that was created when drastic global warming predictions at the turn of the millennium were met with a cooling trend over the last decade. Al Gores hyperbolic predictions, references to questionable science and overall hypocrisy(4) divided the public on this issue into a very false dichotomy: those believing that the IPCC projected 1-2C temperature rise is an imminent threat to humanity(5) and those believing that the whole thing is a hoax. Indeed climategate 1 and climategate 2 (6)conclusively showed that handful of scientists massaged the data to exaggerate the warming, actively suppressed opposition and were not forthcoming in sharing their research. None the less I am not comfortable with extrapolating this to mean that the entire IPCC is corrupt and devious. Despite valid misgivings I can rationalise acting on this frail scientific consensus, if only because of the precautionary principle. This brings us to the crux of this issue, what are we going to do to reduce emissions?

First published with illustrations on http://www.criticalthoughtagenda.com/1/post/2012/07/predicting-the-future.html

The proposed solutions here in Australia and around the world revolve entirely around carbon trading and carbon taxes. These have a minimal direct effect on actual emissions, instead their aim is to send a price signal. In practice this means you and me sending our money and our implicit support to institutions like NM Rothschild Bank(7), the IMF, the UN or at best your loving government. You see when governments collect new taxes and Wall Street starts siphoning billions from new carbon derivative markets, the market will do its magic, people will stop polluting and the planet will heal. If this sounds ridiculous, may I suggest a plan B: we can go about reducing CO2 emissions by forcing the government (which serves us remember) to pass a law releasing all photo-voltaic and battery patents for free use (open sourcing). This would likely lead to a much more feasible feat of market magic. Namely, China pumping out solar panels and batteries so cheaply that your coal power station could not hope to compete.

Technology trends When considering the role of technology in the future, one group in particular dominates the discourse. I am talking offcourse o about the transhumanists, lead by Ray Kurzweil (8) who is undeniably a visionary with a track record of seeing technological trends with such clarity he was able to make millions with technologies and companies that formed before their markets even existed. This group is sponsored by the US government itself and large array of academics and venture capitalists, their vision that is that within 20 years we will start to interface our minds with extremely powerful artificial intelligence and acquire superhuman abilities both cognitively and physically. This will eventuate with our consciousness being successfully replicated inside supercomputers and thus achieving immortality. In the words of Ray Kurzweil: Does God exist?, I would say not yet. To me at least this simply does not feel right, I mean if you were dead you would die in the same sense every human has died so far. Now you may leave behind an AI that is a whole lot like you, even smarter, wittier better. Still you will be dead and this digital/cybernetic imitation of your unique consciousness will be zipping around proclaiming your immortality. It is like taking a super high resolution enhanced 3D image of Mona Lisa and throwing away the original, its degrading to all my notions of being human.

Beyond the controlling oligarchy Finally onto the major flaw in all these visions for the future, this idea crystallised in my mind earlier this week when I was listening to a talk given by one of the great prophets of the 20th century: Aldous Huxley, in this talk about technology and the future forms of government Huxley begins by saying: It seems to me that the nature of the ultimate revolution with which we are now faced is precisely this: That we are in process of developing a whole series of techniques which will enable the controlling oligarchy who have always existed and presumably will always exist to get people to love their servitude Yes every one of these popular and compelling visions for our future seems to completely ignore the fact that we live in a world where wealth and power are very concentrated in a small group of people which the mainstream culture defines as a superclass according to David Rothkopf these are some 6,000 people. By no means are these philosopher kings of the modern era, their modus operandi is to maximise their wealth and power and they do this in two ways:
First published with illustrations on http://www.criticalthoughtagenda.com/1/post/2012/07/predicting-the-future.html

Firstly the controlling oligarchy own and operate the major corporations their interest is to continually increase the profitability of the arms industry, big pharma, big oil, finance, silicon valley etc Maximising profits requires wars, fuel crisis, disease outbreaks, outsourcing for cheap labour and manipulative advertising. Secondly as the controlling oligarchy occupy the revolving door between the business and government their interest is for the government to serve them and protect them from the billions who form the unprivileged underclass. This means a legal system where big money makes the rules that are enforced by a zealous police force, regulation that favours big business over small and education that shuts down independent thought to make obedient workers and compulsive consumers. What I just wrote is becoming increasing obvious to millions of people, who are no longer loving their servitude. The controlling oligarchy through short termism and internal competition have let too many people slip out of comfortable servitude to a life of great uncertainty that brings about awareness of social and political issues. Ever more reactionary the oligarchy is responding with a crackdown on political protest, escalating internet censorship and an ever higher surveillance on private citizens. We are at a very unpredictable moment where for the first time in western history the controlling oligarchy as a whole is under threat and yet at the peak of their power. In the words of one of the giants of US foreign policy, Zbigniew Brzezinski:
"For the first time in human history almost all of humanity is politically activated, politically conscious and politically interactive... The resulting global political activism is generating a surge in the quest for personal dignity, cultural respect and economic opportunity in a world painfully scarred by memories of centuries-long alien colonial or imperial domination... [The] major world powers, new and old, also face a novel reality: while the lethality of their military might be greater than ever, their capacity to impose control over the politically awakened masses of the world is at a historic low. To put it bluntly: in earlier times, it was easier to control one million people than to physically kill one million people; today, it is infinitely easier to kill one million people than to control one million people."

Provided that we dont suffer a modern day Nero or Caligula I feel that our future will hinge on the interaction of two trends: our rising socio-political awareness and our exponentially improving technology. If we buy the transhumanist dream and leave powerful technology in the monopoly of the wealthy few, we will become a synthetic sentience existing on the servers of some major corporation, constantly amused artificially happy and unable to rebel should our views lie outside the accepted range of thinking. If cutting edge technology becomes common heritage (open source) rather than the domain of the secretive corporate and military establishment, we will soon (in the next two decades) be able to provide for all our basic needs so cheaply that food energy and shelter will be practically free. Our needs will no longer depend on giant multinational corporations, and our employer will be our own curiosity and ambition. Even in this amazing eventuality there will still be blunders occasional stupidity, death and mayhem but never again will we revert back to the wage slavery, debt slavery and submission to a dominant oligarchy that is evident in the world today.

First published with illustrations on http://www.criticalthoughtagenda.com/1/post/2012/07/predicting-the-future.html

(1)http://www.liberationfrequency.info/2012/07/03/we-were-wrong-on-peak-oil-theres-enough-tofry-us-all/ (2)http://science.house.gov/sites/republicans.science.house.gov/files/documents/hearings/HHRG112-%20SY20-WState-AMittal-20120510.pdf (3)http://www.engdahl.oilgeopolitics.net/print/Behind%20Oil%20Price%20Rise%20Peak%20Oil%20or %20Wall%20Street%20Speculation.pdf (4)http://www.businessweek.com/innovate/NussbaumOnDesign/archives/2007/02/gores_carbon_fo. html (5)http://wattsupwiththat.com/climate-fail-files/over-4-5-billion-people-could-die-from-globalwarming-related-causes-by-2012/ (6)http://wattsupwiththat.com/climategate/ (7)http://www.prnewswire.co.uk/news-releases/rothschild-australia-and-e3-international-to-takethe-lead-in-the-global-carbon-trading-market-154464275.html (8) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ray_Kurzweil

First published with illustrations on http://www.criticalthoughtagenda.com/1/post/2012/07/predicting-the-future.html