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1.

What is a trend
Trends reflect preferences and changes in society. Trends indicate what is in, what is out, what is coming and what is going. Trends are not related to the world of fashion only, but are relevant and important in all areas of life from food, lifestyle, politics and industry to the use of raw materials, techniques and technology. You might remember having said sometimes and who would use that anymore. This means that the thing is not trendy anymore. Cultural trends are found in every society. Trends indicate how we behave and consume, the values of the moment, the state of the world (biological and political) and the sense of direction. Trends can be born slowly or fast. Trends can last for a long time (megatrends) or pass quickly (fads). A trend can also return. Trend research is not irrational or superficial. It is a multimillion euro business and many successful companies and even decision makers rely on it. Trend foresight, or should we say future forecasting, is even a subject taught at universities. You, too, can recognize trends. Think, for example, what kind of music is in at the moment and what was in five years ago? How did young people look five years ago? How do they look now? See, you have already noticed differences in the time line of cultural development, and how the trends in music and clothing have changed. Now think why these changes have happened? What could have caused them? What has changed in the way of thinking in five years? Analyzing in this way you can find reasons behind the trends and the changes. You can apply the same kind of thinking to your own field of crafts for example, what has changed in working methods, materials, forms and tools during recent years?

2.

Why trends
Peoples attitudes and lifestyles change all the time. This also influences business, and creates pressure on companies and entrepreneurs to find out what kind of products people buy, for example, and why or what kind of raw material is available. Craftsmen and handicraft entrepreneurs face the same problem. In order to survive they also need to react to the changes. By observing and using trends in entrepreneurial activity and product development, entrepreneurs can produce more consumer-oriented products. But one must remember that following changes and trends after they have already occurred is not enough. Research and observation must be done beforehand in order to react in time. Companies must also understand how to use and apply trends to their business activities and products. Big companies all over the world use professional Craftopolis

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trend research, but how about micro-entrepreneurs or craftsmen? Where can they find the time and financial recourses? How can they apply trend information to their products? Single entrepreneurs can also observe and use trends in their own work. Trends are easily recognizable in design and other fields of culture. Crafts are sister fields to these. Handicrafts embody cultural values, traditions and emotions. Craftsmen possess their own know-how, knowledge of materials and manual skills, their main tools. No-one else is able to do what they do. Industry might react faster and have the financial resources to invest in trend foresight and consulting, but it often lacks the human dimension and continuity. In this learning environment we will teach you how to observe and use trends.

3.

trend terms, with examples and comparisons trends

A trend is a phenomenon in society a development path of a phenomenon with a past and a future. It is a result of the past and will influence the future and future trends. A trend can be foreseen, but because of uncertainty, its future development is never 100% certain nor linear. A trend is a generic term covering various sub-terms: there are, for example, longlasting trends, or megatrends, as well as shorter trends and really fast trends, or fads. While some trends are global, others are local, appearing in only one country, one town or even one school. Trends are both material and immaterial. A trend does not necessarily refer only to something new. An old thing can become trendy again. For example, a new way of working on an old object can become very trendy or the use of an old technique and colour in an old object, but in a new combination, which can become very trendy and new too. Trends may also refer to the process of getting others to follow/copy, of their own free will, your actions and/or style. (Wikipedia).

Fads
A fad is a fast trend, a craze, even considered as something very superficial (Wikipedia, retrieved 21.12.2006). Fads last for a very short time, become popular relatively quickly, but soon lose their popularity drastically (CIFS; Wikipedia). Fads can be fashion phenomena, seasonal childrens toys, new dances, etc.

megatrends
The concept of a megatrend was launched by John Naisbitt in 1982. A megatrend is a rather predictable and omnipresent, clearly notable, long-term trend lasting for 5 to10 or even 15 years. It shows a major line of development and has a clear historical lineage. Megatrends are global and have various development chains that can be divided into smaller units or into trends of different duration. Megatrends are relevant in various areas, such as the economy, politics, health care, education, culture, consumption (CIFS). Megatrends are global phenomena and may radically change the structures of society having an indisputable effect Craftopolis

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on national and global economic and social structures (Ensti 2005). It is difficult to define singular elements of megatrends because of their holistic nature. Megatrends influence masses, but not all necessarily in the same way. For example, the megatrend insecurity can be expressed on a personal level, but also on a societal level (e.g. airport security, terrorism, violence). It can also create business services and products aimed at increasing security. Other examples of megatrends could be ageing societies, global warming, globalization, high technology, sustainable development. For example, high technology and globalization create possibilities in the field of crafts as an opposing phenomenon to high technology, a need for old, authentic and warm products has been born. And as a response to globalization, a need for local, personalized products has been born. What other possibilities could there be? Search the internet for examples of actual megatrends, and consider how they could affect your country. What could they cause? What kind of services could be needed? What kind of products? Could they influence raw materials?

Weak signals
A weak signal is a rising phenomenon or sign in society without a previous history or importance, but which can become an important factor in the future (Mannermaa 2004). A weak signal can create radical new processes, become a new trend, change the direction of a trend, or disappear almost without a trace. It exists only for a short time. (OPH.) berg defines weak signals as signals of change or new phenomena, such as early information on something that is abstract or has not happened yet, or the first symptoms of change which can be felt in the air even though the event has not taken place yet. A weak signal can even be simply a rumour, or a newspaper story, or a new discovery (Hiltunen 2000). When taken into consideration, analyzed and directed in the right way, a weak signal may create a new trend or, on the other hand, develop a trend. Many phenomena that have changed society have first been weak signals. Good examples of weak signals can be found in fashion, music and technology. Specialists and early adapters easily become interested in weak signals, because they are generally the first to get the latest information, and also because of their attitudes, contacts and lifestyle. As soon as the masses become interested in the thing, it becomes a trend.

Wild cards
Wild cards are events, developments and phenomena which have only a small probability of occurring, but which have huge consequences (generally for society at all levels). Good examples are the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 or the tsunami of Christmas 2004 (CIFS). Because of their huge impact and consequences, wild cards or their likelihood must be taken into consideration and prevented. Wild cards must not only be seen as negative.

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driving forces
Driving forces are phenomena that function on at least a societal (or greater) level, but do not necessarily have the same continuity as trends. Driving forces have no direction, but influence the decision-making process on a conscious or unconscious level. Driving forces are seldom questioned or mentioned. Questioning a prevailing driving force generally raises a lot of attention and resistance. Driving forces include the basic beliefs of a society or organization, or single factors influencing time and habits (OPH).

Seasonal variations
A seasonal variation is a cyclical change that repeats itself, time after time. The cycle can be a day, a week, a year, etc. (Pentti Rouhio, UIAH).

trend setters
A trend setter is a person who popularizes a new fashion of a phenomenon; someone who sets the current trend (Wikipedia).

cool hunting/cool hunters

A cool hunter is a professional who makes observations and predictions of changes in new and/or existing cultural trends (Wikipedia). Cool hunters observe what has been said or found, manners, habits, consumption, how and why products are used. The most common areas for cool hunting are television, computer games, mobile technology, music, fashion, films, anything that is related to young and pop/street culture (Wikipedia).

cult following/cult followers

Cult followers are fans that are devoted to a specific area/phenomenon of pop culture for example, music, musicians (e.g. John Lennon), films (e.g. Rocky Horror Picture Show, Star Trek), books, writers, radio programmes, television shows (e.g. Twin Peaks), and even soft drinks (e.g. Coca Cola). Cult followers meet in forums such as chat rooms and express the cult through their clothing (Wikipedia). An impulse for a cult following can be given by a weak signal, for example. A cult can also become a trend when the masses adopt the cult.

Bandwagon effect
The bandwagon effect basically means following the crowd. People often believe or do things because many other people believe it or do it, without reflecting on its truth (Wikipedia). In the trend world, these people/this behaviour is typical of the big masses. The early adapters behave in the opposite way.

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galaxy model
The characteristics of trends can also be explained by using a galaxy model: A megatrend = a star and its star system. Just like a star and its star system, a megatrend also lives for a rather long time, includes different elements in its universality, and one day dies without totally disappearing. Planets = smaller trends and areas of megatrends. Moons = fads closely related to a certain area or trend. Comets, meteorites = wild cards that may hit and change the trend/situation Black holes = wild card also Spatial dust = weak signals that may become stars (with their star systems) Galaxy = a bigger cultural unity lasting 50-100 years in constant change; a Spinning around the axis, moving in space, with seasonal variations in trends

or just pass.

or comets sort of mother/queen trend.

4.

How trends function in real life and their effects examples

Below you can see some examples of trend logic and causality. The aim of the table is to open your minds to see the cause of effects. This is not organized in a trend megatrend order
WHicH tHingS Lack of time Stress Tiredness with changes Individualism Fragmented families High ICT etc. Changes Uncertainty Fear Terrorism Wars Violence Pollution cauSe New values Need for relaxation/ time saving WHat Spirituality and emotional balance: religions, new age, chakra, feng shui, courses, candles more time for the family: family magazines, weekend packages, family cars democracy and casual attitudes appreciation of free time/time saving: communication, travelling, clothing, house keeping products need for privacy and peace Quality products easy food: ready-made food, etc Fantasy and playfulness in life: design, films, story telling, naivety and exotism colours and fantasy: Paul Smith, Gwen Stefani, decoration, flowers, Back to good and simple: need for calmness and spirit Bullet proof: High Tec materials, high technology, security totalitarianism versus freedom thinking Boycotts Big brother: finger print passport, controls easier lives: new technology will adapt to people Health longer lives: new body parts, genetics electrohippies and hacktivist: new punk and terrorism raised security costs neo helplessness gSm-computer generation: neo illiteracy? Short distances: remote work, families together? Back to nature: prints, free time, plants, aroma therapy, organic food

Example 1

Example 2

Need for fun and playfulness Need for security Battle of values Short distances Help in life Nostalgia

Example 3

Technology Virtual world GSM ICT Pollution

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its a small world after all! (karl gietl, artist, rSa) Internationalism Study Working aboard People moving Globalism/ localism Opening borders Pollution Resources Disasters Poverty Family etc.

Example 4

Melting pot Global-local Neonationalism

living in other cultures: need for languages, cultural knowledge mixing people: races, families, cultures, food, styles, music, new concept of beauty, new super talents from mixed families new ways to shorten distances or save money: new vehicles, cheap airlines and telecommunications cocktailing between cultures and alternatives, also tribalism new countries: new ways to survive, neo-mercantilism, Europe? globalism and copy-products: need for authentic things

Example 5

CARING I care Who cares about me?

Family: loving and caring Saving others: concerts and other venues to raise money, charity Save the world: ecological movements, tree lovers, conscious consuming, animal rights, boycotting, ecological products Battle for values Who cares about me?: e.g. society sickness i care about me: hedonism, need for authentic things, Science: new body parts, new discoveries, self-healing, quaint technology Scientific food: taste chips, gene manipulation, personal diets, info food new professions: food trainers, etc. Biochemistry: gene research, etc too clean/ polluted: new diseases, allergies, weak people Weight war: weak people, diet food, books, life and diet individualism: the search for opportunities for self-expression culture and arts: position of culture rises, cultural hobbies, back to roots, arts as decoration, design food Hedonism feminism: taking care of beauty (linked to body culture), beauty products for men, time for oneself Body culture: Michelangelo effect sculpted strong bodies, young bodies and faces mixing disciplines: creativity and competitiveness through mixing disciplines, know-how from different fields creativity: ttt, competitiveness through creativity

Example 6

Overweight Scientific food Ageing population Diseases Gene manipulation Chemical war Values together

Health How to live Longer

5. a)

Example 7

Neorenaissance: Luomo universale

How to look for trends and analyze trends How to look for
Hints of trends are everywhere. Here is a list to help in observing trends. Remember to keep your mind, ears and eyes open, and observe: What is happening around you, and where is everything heading? What do people talk about? Read and observe interviews, magazines, photos, music, hobbies, food, books,

ICT, travel, restaurants, careers, movies, wars, streets, etc. Fashion is a good indicator of the values of the moment. Watch society: demographic changes, where and how people go and move to, Cool hunting: cool people, cool places, cool products, cool mentalities and cool values, politics, laws, leisure time, home, lifestyle (e.g. shopping) music; e.g. what one cool person does can become a craze Craftopolis

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What do your avant-gardes (early adapters and scientists) do? Watch and observe the news many wild cards come up from there! Look at forms, materials, working methods and colours. What was used before, Besides images, listen to what is said

what now?

The most important factors are curiosity, humility and observation!

b)

and how to analyze

Now you should have lots of material. It might even seem too much. Little by little, you will learn to filter out the significant signals. Combine analysis with instinct! You can use the following list: What seems to take the most space? Which subject is discussed the most often? What has already been seen? What catches your eye, and what is new? Is there a breaking point (about to merge or about to go out of fashion)? Is there a common idea behind different trends? Social trends: Which ones seem to be important? What do they do in other countries? How can this affect us, me, my products? Why have these changes happened? What could have caused these changes? How strong are the changes, the duration, the effect? What has changed in the way of thinking? Why are these trends really important? How solid and strong will their influence be in the (near) future? What are/could be the reasons behind them?

You can apply the same kind of thinking to your own field. For example, what has changed in the working methods, materials, forms and tools in your field of crafts during recent years?

c) and how to synthesize

In using trends, one needs to reflect on what trends to use, and how and why even in handicrafts based on manual work and skills. Craft work can be timeconsuming and expensive, and the cost is passed on to the customer. What could be the possibilities of using trends in craft products? What can be produced costeffectively and what cannot? Some very trendy things pass quickly. Is your product such? After analyzing you need to use the information you have. Think of it in relation to your product, business, customers, aims and how you would want all that to develop. What is relevant? What could be useful? Select the trends to be used what possibilities do you see there? What has not been done before? What can you do alone or with someone else (other craftsmen, designers, etc.)? What is not possible? Put these in relation to your situation and think about the products, working Craftopolis

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methods, materials. Is there anything old or new, or new combinations, that you could use? How about the customers? Where and how can you show the product? You can even draw up 3-4 alternative possibilities, sketches or ideas, for example. Analyze the ideas about working methods and products based on the information and ask other people, too. Handicraft products have a long life span. Do you still want to produce the same product after five years or after ten years? Does it live that long? Listen to the retailers. They talk with customers every day. And then get to work and have fun!

6.

links and further reading:

See the document List of trends

Social evolution

Trends and analyzing

Life style research/ consumer behaviour and its causes

Targeting/ personality

New Product concepts

A development path

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references:
CIFS. Retrieved 27.3.2007 from http://www.cifs.dk/en/ Ernsti (2005). Retrieved 27.3.2007 from http://matriisi.ee.tut.fi/hmopetus/ hmjatkosems04/liitteet/JOS_hypermedia_Vuori200505.pdf Hiltunen, E. (2000). OPH. Retrieved 27.3.2007 from http://www.oph.fi/pageLast. asp?path=1;443;3086;3987;19384;25359;25360;25369 Hiltunen, E. (2000). OPH. Retrieved 27.3.2007 from http://www.oph.fi/page.asp? path=1,443,3086,3987,25359,35941,25360,25369,37653 Mannermaa, M. (2004). Heikoista signaaleista vahva tulevaisuus. WSOY. Porvoo: WS Bokwell Oy. OPH. Retrieved 27.3.2007 from http://www.oph.fi/SubPage.asp?path=1,443,308 6,3987,28363,28396,28399 OPH. Retrieved 27.3.2007 from http://www.oph.fi/SubPage.asp?path=1,443,308 6,3987,28363,28396,28401 Rouhio, P. Retrieved 27.3.2007 from http://www2.uiah.fi/projects/metodi, Pentti Routio (uiah) UIAH. Tuotetiede. Retrieved 27.3.2007 from http://www.uiah.fi/virtu/materiaalit/ tuotetiede/html_files/1412_totea.html#trend Wikipedia: Bandwagon effect. Retrieved 27.3.2007 from http://en.wikipedia.org/ wiki/Bandwagon_effect Wikipedia: Coolhunting. Retrieved 27.3.2007 from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ Coolhunting Wikipedia: Cult following. Retrieved 27.3.2007 from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ Cult_following) Wikipedia: Fads and trends. Retrieved 27.3.2007 from http://en.wikipedia.org/ wiki/Fads_and_trends Wikipedia: Trend. Retrieved 27.3.2007 from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trend

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