DAILY I FOREX REPORT

13TH FEBRUARY 2013

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HEADLINES

USD/JPY Returns To Nearly Three-Year Highs On More Threats Dollar Strong Despite Risk Appetite, Steady EUR/USD Eyes 1.3500

TRADING TIPS
BUY EURUSD ABOVE 1.3410 tgs 1.3430/1.3450 sl 1.3390

Euro at Risk as EU Meeting Disappoints, Pound to Hold Steady Pound Looks to CPI for Direction, Euro Eyes Spain Bailout Hopes
UK Consumer Price Index figures headline the economic calendar in European hours. Expectations suggest the headline year-on-year inflation rate will remain at 2.7 percent in January, unchanged from the prior month. A softer print has scope to weigh on the British Pound, reinforcing yesterdays rumors of a dovish lean in the upcoming BOE quarterly inflation report. An outcome in line with expectations may offer a bit of room for a corrective recovery however as markets shift toward neutral ahead of tomorrows event risk. Needless to say, a number north of expectations would amplify the likelihood of such a scenario.

BUY USDJPY ABOVE 94.37 tgt 94.57/94.77 SL 94.17

SELL GBPUSD BELOW 1.5574 tgt 1.5560/1.5545 SL 1.5594

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 HOURLY EURUSD CHART HOURLY EURUSD CHART

ANALYSIS
OPEN: 1.3402 HIGH: 1.3410 LOW: 1.3364 CLOSE: 1.3403

EURUSD LOOKS UPWARD TREND : BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS MACD =>. 0005(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI => 55(BULLISH SIGNAL)

 HOURLY USDJPY CHART

HOURLY USDJPY CHART

ANALYSIS
OPEN: 94.19 HIGH: 93.37 LOW: 93.87 CLOSE: 94.07

USDJPY LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS MACD => 0011( BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI =>59(BULLISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY GBPUSD CHART HOURLY GBPUSD CHART

ANALYSIS
OPEN: 1.5655 HIGH: 1.5668 LOW: 1.5574 CLOSE: 1.5588

GBPUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD TREND: BEARISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD => .0005( BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI => 20(BEARISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY EURGBP CHART

HOURLY EURGBP CHART

ANALYSIS
OPEN: 0.8560 HIGH: 0.8604 LOW: 0.8540 CLOSE: 0.8598

EURGBP LOOKS UPWARDS TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS MACD =>.-002(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI =>72(BULLISH SIGNAL)

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HOURLY USDINDEX CHART

ANALYSIS
OPEN: 80.3520 HIGH: 80.5030 LOW: 80.3350 CLOSE: 80.4020

USDINDEX LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS MACD =>0.045(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI =>65(BULLISH SIGNAL)

ECONOMIC CALENDER

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Importance

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Notes

Mon Feb 11

00:30

AUD Home Loans (DEC) AUD Value of Loans (MoM) (DEC) AUD Investment Lending (DEC) EUR Euro-Area Finance Ministers Meet in Brussels NZD NZ Card Spending (MoM) (JAN) NZD NZ Card Spending - Retail (MoM) (JAN) JPY Japan Money Stock M3 (YoY) (JAN) JPY Japan Money Stock M2+CD (YoY) (JAN) EUR German Wholesale Price Index (YoY) (JAN) EUR German Wholesale Price Index (MoM) (JAN)

Medium

-1.5%

0.0%

-0.7%

00:30

Low

-2.7%

0.5%

00:30

Low

-2.4%

-3.2%

13:30

High

21:45

Medium

0.4%

21:45

Medium

0.3%

0.3%

23:50

Low

2.3%

2.2%

23:50

Low

2.6%

2.6%

Tue Feb 12

Low

3.2%

Low

0.0%

00:01

GBP RICS House Price Balance (JAN) AUD NAB Business Confidence (JAN) AUD RBA Credit Card Purchases (DEC) AUD RBA Credit Card Balances (DEC) AUD NAB Business Conditions (JAN) JPY Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (JAN P) CHF Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JAN) CHF CPI - EU Harmonised (YoY) (JAN) CHF Consumer Price Index (MoM) (JAN) CHF CPI - EU Harmonised (MoM) (JAN) GBP Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JAN)

Medium

1%

0.0%

00:30

Medium

00:30

Low

$A21.8B

00:30

Low

$A49.5B

00:30

Low

-4

06:00

Medium

-27.5%

08:15

Medium

-0.3%

-0.4%

08:15

Medium

-0.3%

08:15

Low

-0.3%

-0.2%

08:15

Low

0.1%

09:30

High

2.4%

2.4%

09:30

GBP Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JAN) GBP Retail Price Index (YoY) (JAN) GBP Producer Price Index Output n.s.a. (YoY) (JAN) GBP Producer Price Index Output Core n.s.a. (YoY) (JAN) GBP Consumer Price Index (MoM) (JAN) GBP Producer Price Index Output n.s.a. (MoM) (JAN) GBP Producer Price Index Output Core n.s.a. (MoM) (JAN) GBP Producer Price Index Input n.s.a. (YoY) (JAN) GBP Producer Price Index Input n.s.a. (MoM) (JAN) GBP DCLG UK House Prices (YoY) (DEC) GBP Retail Price Index (MoM) (JAN) GBP Retail Price Index Ex Mort Int.Payments (YoY) (JAN) GBP Retail Price Index (JAN) USD Mortgage Delinquencies (4Q) USD MBA Mortgage Foreclosures (4Q) USD NFIB Small Business Optimism (JAN) USD JOLTs Job Openings (DEC) USD Fed's George Speaks on the Economy in Nebraska USD Monthly Budget Statement (JAN) AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence (FEB) AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (FEB) JPY Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) (DEC)

High

2.7%

2.7%

09:30

Medium

3.2%

3.1%

09:30

Medium

2.0%

2.2%

09:30

Medium

1.4%

1.5%

09:30

Medium

-0.5%

0.5%

09:30

Low

0.2%

-0.1%

09:30

Low

0.1%

0.0%

09:30

Low

1.0%

0.3%

09:30

Low

0.8%

-0.2%

09:30

Low

2.0%

2.1%

09:30

Low

-0.5%

0.5%

09:30

Low

3.1%

3.0%

09:30

Low

245.6

246.8

12:00

Low

7.4%

12:00

Low

4.1%

12:30

Low

89

88

15:00

Low

3676

16:30

Low

19:00

Medium

-$2.00B

-$27.41B

23:30

Medium

0.6%

23:30

Low

100.6

23:50

Medium

0.7%

-0.3%

23:50

JPY Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index (YoY) (JAN) JPY Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index (MoM) (JAN) USD Fed's Plosser Speaks on Economic Outlook in Stanford USD Fed's Lacker Speaks on Economics in Lancaster CHF Producer & Import Prices (YoY) (JAN) CHF Producer & Import Prices (MoM) (JAN) EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) (DEC) EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) (DEC) GBP Bank of England Inflation Report USD MBA Mortgage Applications (FEB 8) USD Advance Retail Sales (JAN) USD Retail Sales Less Autos (JAN) USD Retail Sales Ex Auto & Gas (JAN) USD Retail Sales "Control Group" (JAN) USD Import Price Index (YoY) (JAN) USD Import Price Index (MoM) (JAN) USD Business Inventories (DEC) USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (FEB 8) USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (FEB 8) USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (FEB 8) USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (FEB 8) USD Fed's Bullard to Speak on Economy at Arkansas State University

Low

-0.3%

-0.6%

23:50

Low

0.2%

0.3%

Wed Feb 13

00:30

Low

00:30

Low

08:15

Low

1.0%

1.0%

08:15

Low

0.0%

0.1%

10:00

Medium

-2.4%

-3.7%

10:00

Low

0.2%

-0.3%

10:30

High

12:00

Low

13:30

High

0.1%

0.5%

13:30

Medium

0.1%

0.3%

13:30

Low

0.4%

0.6%

13:30

Low

0.2%

0.6%

13:30

Low

-1.5%

13:30

Low

0.8%

-0.1%

15:00

Medium

0.3%

0.3%

15:30

Low

15:30

Low

15:30

Low

15:30

Low

16:10

Low

21:30

NZD Business NZ Performance of Manufacturing Index (JAN) NZD Food Prices (MoM) (JAN) JPY Nominal Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (4Q P) JPY Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (4Q P) JPY Gross Domestic Product Annualized (4Q P) JPY Gross Domestic Product Deflator (YoY) (4Q P) JPY Bank of Japan Rate Decision (FEB 14) CNY Actual FDI (YoY) (JAN) AUD Consumer Inflation Expectation (FEB) NZD ANZ Consumer Confidence (MoM) (FEB) NZD ANZ Consumer Confidence Index (FEB) JPY Tokyo Condominium Sales (YoY) (JAN) EUR French Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (4Q P) EUR French Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (4Q P) EUR German Gross Domestic Product w.d.a. (YoY) (4Q P) EUR German Gross Domestic Product n.s.a. (YoY) (4Q P) EUR German Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) (4Q P) EUR ECB Publishes Monthly Report EUR Italian Gross Domestic Product s.a. and w.d.a. (YoY) (4Q P) EUR Italian Gross Domestic Product s.a. and w.d.a. (QoQ) (4Q P)

Medium

50.1

21:45

Low

-0.2%

23:50

High

0.0%

-0.9%

23:50

High

0.1%

-0.9%

23:50

High

0.4%

-3.5%

23:50
Thu Feb 14

Low

-0.5%

-0.8%

High

-0.2%

0.10%

Medium

-0.2%

-4.5%

00:00

Medium

2.0%

00:00

Low

3.1%

00:00

Low

118.3

04:00

Low

-3.0%

06:30

Medium

0.5%

0.0%

06:30

Low

-0.5%

0.1%

07:00

High

0.9%

07:00

High

0.4%

07:00

Medium

0.2%

0.2%

09:00

High

09:00

Medium

-2.4%

09:00

Low

-0.2%

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) (4Q A) EUR Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) (4Q A) USD Initial Jobless Claims (FEB 10) USD Continuing Claims (FEB 3) USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (FEB 8) NZD Retail Sales Ex Inflation (QoQ) (4Q) JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) (FEB 8) JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (FEB 8) JPY Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (Yen) (FEB 8) JPY Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (Yen) (FEB 8) USD Revisions of Producer Price Index CNY MNI February Flash Business Sentiment Indicator NZD Non Resident Bond Holdings (JAN) JPY Industrial Production (YoY) (DEC F) (DEC F) JPY Industrial Production (MoM) (DEC F) (DEC F) JPY Capacity Utilization (MoM) (DEC F) (DEC F) USD G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting in Russia GBP Retail Sales w/Auto Fuel (YoY) (JAN) GBP Retail Sales (YoY) (JAN) GBP Retail Sales w/Auto Fuel (MoM) (JAN) GBP Retail Sales (MoM) (JAN)

High

-0.6%

10:00

Medium

-0.1%

13:30

Medium

360K

366K

13:30

Low

3200K

3224K

15:30

Low

-118

21:45

Medium

-0.4%

23:50

Low

23:50

Low

23:50

Low

419.5B

23:50
Fri Feb 15

Low

Low

01:35

Low

02:00

Low

64.0%

04:30

Medium

-7.8%

04:30

Low

2.5%

04:30

Low

-0.2%

05:00

Medium

09:30

Medium

0.9%

0.3%

09:30

Medium

1.6%

1.1%

09:30

Low

0.5%

-0.1%

09:30

Low

0.5%

-0.3%

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Trade Balance s.a. (euros) (DEC) EUR Euro-Zone Trade Balance (euros) (DEC) USD Empire Manufacturing (FEB) CAD Manufacturing Shipments (MoM) (DEC) USD Net Long-term TIC Flows (DEC) CAD Existing Home Sales (MoM) (JAN) USD Total Net TIC Flows (DEC) USD Manufacturing (SIC) Production (JAN) USD Industrial Production (JAN) USD Capacity Utilization (JAN) USD U. of Michigan Confidence (FEB P)

Low

10.6B

11.0B

10:00

Low

12.0B

13.7B

13:30

Low

-2

-7.78

13:30

Low

-0.5%

1.7%

14:00

Medium

$52.3B

14:00

Medium

-0.5%

14:00

Low

$27.8B

14:15

Medium

0.2%

0.8%

14:15

Medium

0.2%

0.3%

14:15

Low

78.9%

78.8%

14:55

High

74.5

73.8

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