DAILY IFOREX REPORT

11th SEP 2013

HEADLINES

Forex: Risk Trends and Taper Outlook to Decide AUDUSD, S&P 500, EURJPY Forex: Aussie Dollar Gains, Yen Drops on China Data and Syria Hopes

GBP/USD GBP/EUR EUR/USD GBPAUD GBP/CAD GBP/CHF GBP/CZK GBP/DKK GBP/HKD GBP/INR GBP/JPY GBP/NOK GBP/NZD GBP/PLN GBP/SEK GBP/SGD GBP/THB GBP/TRY GBP/ZAR GBP/CNY

1.5692 1.1844 1.3242 1.6967 1.6275 1.4654 30.576 8.832 12.166 100.53 157.02 9.373 1.9567 5.052 10.286 1.993 50.43 3.190 15.727 9.665

Risk Appetite Swells Amid Easing Risk of Western Intervention in Syria Aussie Dollar Higher, Japanese Yen Sold on Pickup in Market Sentiment S&P 500 Futures Hint Positive Market Mood Likely to Carry Forward The Australian Dollar outperformed in overnight trade, rising as much as 0.6 percent on average against its leading counterparts. The sentiment-sensitive currency was pulled higher as stocks continued to rise across Asian bourses, with regional shares adding 1.1 percent on average. The Japanese Yen underperformed as the risk-on mood drove demand for carry trades funded in terms of the perennially low-yielding currency. The unit fell as much as 0.6 percent on average against the G10 majors. The positive tone appears to have followed comments from US President Obama, who said in an interview that a Russia-proposed arrangement that would see Syria surrender its chemical weapons could put on hold the push to initiate military intervention against the government of President Bashar alAssad. Traders have worried that Western intervention might widen the conflict, disrupting oil shipments from the region and undermining the global recovery. Another supportive set of Chinese economic data underpin investors chipper mood. The East Asian giant reported that Industrial Production rose 10.4 percent year-on-year in August, topping median forecasts calling for a 9.9 percent increase and yielding the best reading since March 2012. Retail Sales rose 13.4 percent over the same period, recording the biggest gain since December 2012. A quiet economic calendar hints sentiment trends are likely to remain in control for the time being. European stock exchanges are following their Asian counterparts upward and S&P 500 futures are pointing firmly higher, suggesting the markets rosy disposition is likely to carry forward as Wall Street comes online.

TRADING TIPS
SELL EURUSD BELOW 1.3220 TGT 1.3200/1.3170 SL 1.3250

BUY USDJPY ABOVE 100.40TGT 100.60/100.80 SL 100.10

BUY GBPUSD ABOVE 1.5730 TGT 1.5750/1.5770 SL 1.5700

 HOURLY EURUSD CHART HOURLY EURUSD CHART

ANALYSIS EURUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD TREND: BEARISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD =>.0003(BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI => 48(BEARISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY USDJPY CHART

ANALYSIS USDJPY LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS MACD =>.10(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI =>76(BULLISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY GBPUSD CHART

ANALYSIS GBPUSD LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS MACD =>.0004(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI =>51(BULLISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY EURGBP CHART

ANALYSIS EURGBP LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS MACD =>.0004(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI =>47(BULLISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY USD INDEX CHART

ANALYSIS USD INDEX LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS MACD =>.0001(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI =>56(BULLISH SIGNAL)

ECONOMIC CALLENDER
Date
Sun Sep 8

Time

Currency

Event

Importance

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Notes

01:30

CNY Trade Balance (AUG) CNY Exports (YoY) (AUG) CNY Imports (YoY) (AUG) NZD Manufacturing Activity (2Q) NZD Manufacturing Activity Volume (QoQ) (2Q) JPY Bank Lending Banks ex-Trust (AUG) JPY Bank Lending incl Trusts (YoY) (AUG) JPY Gross Domestic Product Annualized (2Q F) JPY Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (2Q F) JPY Trade Balance BOP Basis (Yen) (JUL) JPY Adjusted Current Account Total (Yen) (JUL) JPY BoP Current Account Balance (YoY) (JUL) JPY Current Account Total (Yen) (JUL) JPY GDP Business Spending (QoQ) (2Q F) JPY GDP Consumer Spending (QoQ) (2Q F) JPY Gross Domestic Product Deflator (YoY) (2Q F) JPY Nominal Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (2Q F) NZD QV House Prices (YoY) (AUG) CNY Consumer Price Index (YoY) (AUG) AUD Home Loans (JUL) AUD Value of Loans (MoM) (JUL) CNY Producer Price Index (YoY) (AUG)

Medium

28.52B

$20.00B

$17.82B

01:30

Low

7.2%

5.5%

5.1%

01:30

Low

7.0%

11.3%

10.9%

22:45

Low

-2.0%

0.2%

22:45

Low

-3.4%

-0.6%

23:50

Medium

2.3%

2.3%

23:50

Medium

2.0%

2.0%

23:50

Medium

3.8%

3.9%

2.6%

23:50

Medium

0.9%

1.0%

0.6%

23:50

Medium

-943.3B

-862.4B

-139.2B

23:50

Low

333.7B

313.9B

646.2B

23:50

Low

-12.9%

-27.8%

-20.3%

23:50

Low

577.3B

507.7B

336.3B

23:50

Low

1.3%

1.1%

-0.1%

23:50

Low

0.7%

0.8%

23:50

Low

-0.5%

-0.3%

-0.3%

23:50

Low

0.9%

1.0%

0.7%

Mon Sep 9

00:00

Low

8.5%

8.1%

01:30

High

2.6%

2.6%

2.7%

01:30

Medium

2.4%

2.0%

2.6%

01:30

Medium

0.0%

2.4%

01:30

Medium

-1.6%

-1.7%

-2.3%

01:30

AUD ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (AUG) AUD Investment Lending (JUL) JPY Bankruptcies (YoY) (AUG) JPY Consumer Confidence Index (AUG) CHF Unemployment Rate (AUG) CHF Unemployment Rate s.a. (AUG) JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook (AUG) JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Current (AUG) CHF Retail Sales (Real) (YoY) (JUL) EUR Euro-Zone Sentix Investor Confidence (SEP) CAD Building Permits (MoM) (JUL) USD Fed's Williams to Speak at NABE in San Francisco USD Consumer Credit (JUL) NZD New Zealand Manpower Survey (4Q) USD EIA Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update NZD ANZ Truckometer Heavy (MoM) (AUG) AUD Australia Manpower Survey (4Q) NZD Card Spending Retail (MoM) (AUG) NZD NZ Card Spending (MoM) (AUG) GBP RICS House Price Balance (AUG) JPY Bank of Japan August 7-8 meeting minutes JPY Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) (JUL) JPY Japan Money Stock M2+CD (YoY) (AUG) JPY Japan Money Stock M3 (YoY) (AUG)

Low

-2.0%

-1.1%

01:30

Low

2.9%

-0.1%

04:30

Medium

-15.30%

-0.09%

05:00

Medium

43.0

44.0

43.6

05:45

Medium

3.0%

3.0%

3.0%

05:45

Medium

3.2%

3.2%

3.2%

06:00

Medium

51.2

53.6

06:00

Low

51.2

53.5

52.3

07:15

Medium

0.8%

2.3%

08:30

Medium

6.5

-3.5

-4.9

12:30

Medium

20.7%

3.5%

-10.6%

15:00

Low

19:00

Medium

$10.437B

$12.700B

$11.925B

20:00

Low

18%

21%

21:00

Low

22:00

Low

-1.5%

9.6%

22:00

Low

3%

5%

22:45

Medium

0.8%

0.6%

0.5%

22:45

Medium

0.4%

0.4%

23:01

Low

40%

39%

37%

23:50

Medium

23:50

Medium

-0.4%

-0.5%

-0.5%

23:50

Low

3.7%

3.8%

3.7%

23:50

Low

3.0%

3.0%

3.0%

Tue Sep 10

00:00

JPY Japan Manpower Survey (4Q) CNY Manpower Survey (4Q) EUR Germany Fourth Quarter Manpower Employment Outlook (Table) AUD NAB Business Confidence (AUG) AUD NAB Business Conditions (AUG) CNY Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD (YoY) (AUG) CNY Industrial Production YTD (YoY) (AUG) CNY Industrial Production (YoY) (AUG) CNY Retail Sales YTD (YoY) (AUG) CNY Retail Sales (YoY) (AUG) JPY Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (AUG P) CNY New Yuan Loans (AUG) EUR Italian Gross Domestic Product s.a. and w.d.a. (YoY) (2Q F) CNY Aggregate Financing RMB (AUG) CNY Money Supply M0 (YoY) (AUG) CNY Money Supply M1 (YoY) (AUG) CNY Money Supply M2 (YoY) (AUG) EUR Italian Gross Domestic Product s.a. and w.d.a. (QoQ) (2Q F) USD NFIB Small Business Optimism (AUG) CAD Housing Starts (AUG) USD JOLTs Job Openings (JUL) JPY BSI Large All Industry (QoQ) (3Q) JPY BSI Large Manufacturing (QoQ) (3Q) JPY Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index (MoM) (AUG)

Low

15.0

15.0

00:01

Low

14%

12%

00:01

Low

01:30

Medium

-3

01:30

Low

-6

-7

05:30

Medium

20.3%

20.2%

20.1%

05:30

Medium

9.5%

9.4%

9.4%

05:30

Medium

10.4%

9.9%

9.7%

05:30

Medium

12.8%

12.9%

12.8%

05:30

Medium

13.4%

13.3%

13.2%

06:00

Low

-1.8%

-12.2%

08:00

High

711.3B

730.0B

699.9B

08:00

Medium

-2.1%

-2.0%

-2.0%

08:00

Low

1570.0B

950.0B

808.8B

08:00

Low

9.3%

9.4%

9.5%

08:00

Low

9.9%

9.6%

9.7%

08:00

Low

14.7%

14.6%

14.5%

08:00

Low

-0.3%

-0.2%

-0.2%

11:30

Low

94.0

95.0

94.1

12:15

Medium

180.3K

190.0K

193.0K

14:00

Low

3900

3936

23:50

Medium

5.9

23:50

Low

23:50

Low

0.4%

0.5%

23:50

JPY Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index (YoY) (AUG) AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence (SEP) AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (SEP) JPY BOJ Board Member Ishida Speech & Press Conference EUR German Consumer Price Index EU Harmonised (YoY) (AUG F) EUR German Consumer Price Index (YoY) (AUG F) EUR German Consumer Price Index EU Harmonised (MoM) (AUG F) EUR German Consumer Price Index (MoM) (AUG F) GBP Average Weekly Earnings (3M/(YoY) (JUL) GBP Claimant Count Rate (AUG) GBP Employment Change (3M/3M) (JUL) GBP ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) (JUL) GBP Jobless Claims Change (AUG) GBP Weekly Earnings ex Bonus (3M/(YoY) (JUL) USD MBA Mortgage Applications (SEP 6) USD Wholesale Inventories (JUL) USD Wholesale Trade Sales (MoM) (JUL) USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (SEP 6) USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (SEP 6) USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (SEP 6) USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (SEP 6) NZD Reserve Bank of New Zealand Rate Decision (SEP 12) JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (SEP 6) JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) (SEP 6)

Low

2.4%

2.2%

Wed Sep 11

00:30

Medium

3.5%

00:30

Low

105.7

01:30

Low

06:00

Medium

1.6%

1.6%

06:00

Medium

1.5%

1.5%

06:00

Low

0.0%

0.0%

06:00

Low

0.0%

0.0%

08:30

Medium

1.3%

2.1%

08:30

Medium

4.3%

4.3%

08:30

Medium

55K

69K

08:30

Medium

7.8%

7.8%

08:30

Medium

-21.0K

-29.2K

08:30

Low

1.0%

1.1%

11:00

Low

1.3%

14:00

Low

0.3%

-0.2%

14:00

Low

0.5%

0.4%

14:30

Low

-1829

14:30

Low

-2000

-1836

14:30

Low

500K

549K

14:30

Low

-1000K

-1827K

21:00

High

2.50%

2.50%

23:50

Medium

-530.9B

23:50

Medium

65.6B

23:50

JPY Machine Orders (YoY) (JUL) JPY Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (Yen) (SEP 6) JPY Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (Yen) (SEP 6) JPY Machine Orders (MoM) (JUL) AUD Consumer Inflation Expectation (SEP) AUD Employment Change (AUG) AUD Unemployment Rate (AUG) AUD Full Time Employment Change (AUG) AUD Credit Card Balances (JUL) AUD Credit Card Purchases (JUL) AUD Part Time Employment Change (AUG) AUD Participation Rate (AUG) EUR German Wholesale Price Index (MoM) (AUG) EUR German Wholesale Price Index (YoY) (AUG) EUR ECB Publishes Monthly Report EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) (JUL) GBP BoE's Carney, Fisher, Miles and McCafferty Testify to Parliament EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) (JUL) CAD New Housing Price Index (YoY) (JUL) USD Import Price Index (YoY) (AUG) USD Initial Jobless Claims (SEP 6) CAD New Housing Price Index (MoM) (JUL) USD Continuing Claims (AUG 30) (AUG 30) USD Import Price Index (MoM) (AUG)

Medium

7.7%

4.9%

23:50

Low

201.5B

23:50

Low

-175.0B

23:50

Low

2.4%

-2.7%

Thu Sep 12

01:00

Medium

2.3%

01:30

High

10.0K

-10.2K

01:30

High

5.8%

5.7%

01:30

Medium

-6.7K

01:30

Low

$A49.9B

01:30

Low

$A20.3B

01:30

Low

-3.5K

01:30

Low

65.2%

65.1%

06:00

Low

-0.3%

06:00

Low

0.0%

08:00

High

09:00

Medium

-0.2%

0.3%

09:00

Medium

09:00

Low

-0.3%

0.7%

12:30

Medium

1.9%

1.8%

12:30

Medium

0.4%

1.0%

12:30

Medium

330K

323K

12:30

Low

0.1%

0.2%

12:30

Low

2968K

2951K

12:30

Low

0.5%

0.2%

13:00

CAD Teranet/National Bank HPI (MoM) (AUG) CAD Teranet/National Bank HPI (YoY) (AUG) CAD Teranet/National Bank HP Index (AUG) USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (SEP 6) USD Monthly Budget Statement (AUG) NZD Business NZ Performance of Manufacturing Index (AUG) NZD Food Prices (MoM) (AUG) NZD ANZ Consumer Confidence (MoM) (SEP) NZD ANZ Consumer Confidence Index (SEP) NZD Non Resident Bond Holdings (AUG) JPY Industrial Production (YoY) (JUL F) JPY Capacity Utilization (MoM) (JUL) JPY Industrial Production (MoM) (JUL F) CHF Producer & Import Prices (MoM) (AUG) CHF Producer & Import Prices (YoY) (AUG) EUR Italian General Government Debt (JUL) GBP Construction Output SA (MoM) (JUL) GBP Construction Output SA (YoY) (JUL) EUR Euro-Zone Trade Balance (euros) (JUL) EUR Euro-Zone Trade Balance s.a. (euros) (JUL) USD Advance Retail Sales (AUG) USD Producer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY) (AUG) USD Producer Price Index (YoY) (AUG) USD Retail Sales Less Autos (AUG)

Low

0.3%

0.7%

13:00

Low

1.9%

13:00

Low

158.16

14:30

Low

58

18:00

Medium

-$150.0B

-$190.5B

22:30

Medium

59.5

22:45

Low

0.5%

Fri Sep 13

01:00

Medium

2.7%

01:00

Low

123

03:00

Low

67.9%

04:30

Medium

1.6%

04:30

Low

-2.3%

04:30

Low

3.2%

07:15

Low

0.2%

0.0%

07:15

Low

0.4%

0.5%

08:30

Low

2075.1B

08:30

Low

-0.7%

08:30

Low

1.9%

09:00

Low

17.3B

09:00

Low

14.9B

12:30

High

0.3%

0.2%

12:30

Medium

1.3%

1.2%

12:30

Medium

1.3%

2.1%

12:30

Medium

0.3%

0.5%

12:30

CAD Capacity Utilization Rate (2Q) USD Producer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (MoM) (AUG) USD Producer Price Index (MoM) (AUG) USD Retail Sales Control Group (AUG) USD Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas (AUG) USD U. of Michigan Confidence (SEP P) USD Business Inventories (JUL)

Low

81.1%

12:30

Low

0.1%

0.1%

12:30

Low

0.1%

0.0%

12:30

Low

0.3%

0.5%

12:30

Low

0.4%

13:55

High

81.7

82.1

14:00

Medium

0.20%

0.00%

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