Currencies Daily Report

Wednesday| September 12, 2012

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Fundamental Team Nalini Rao - Sr. Research Analyst Nalini.rao@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6135 Anish Vyas - Research Associate anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6104

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Currencies Daily Report

Wednesday| September 12, 2012

Highlights
US Trade Balance was at a deficit of $42 billion in July. German WPI increased to 1.1 percent in the last month. UKs Trade Balance was at a deficit of 7.1 billion Pounds in July. US Dollar Index (DX) slips below the 80-mark in yesterdays trade.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last NIFTY SENSEX DJIA S&P FTSE KOSPI BOVESPA NIKKEI Nymex Crude (Oct'12) -$/bbl Comex Gold (Dec12) - $/oz Comex Silver(Dec12) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne CRB Index (Industrial) G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% - Yield 5390.0 17853.0 13323.36 1433.6 16226.7 1920.0 59422.6 8807.4 97.17 1731.80 3350.90 8088.25 484.2 99.75 Prev. day 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.8 -0.2 1.7 -0.7 0.7 0.2 -0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0

as on September 11, 2012 WoW 2.2 2.4 2.2 2.0 6.6 0.7 5.7 -0.1 2.0 2.3 3.6 6.0 3.0 0.2 MoM 0.2 0.7 1.1 2.0 10.7 -1.9 2.3 -1.4 4.0 8.3 20.7 9.0 7.2 0.2 6.7 3.2 10.2 -4.3 -16.6 -7.7 -20.1 3.1 YoY 9.0 8.2 20.5 19.6 20.4

Asian markets are trading on a positive note on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global markets as a result of expectations that China and US will take stimulus measures to boost the economic growth. US Trade Balance was at a deficit of $42 billion in July as against a previous deficit of $41.9billion a month ago. Investor's Business Daily (IBD) / Techno Metrica Institute of Policy and Politics (TIPP) Economic Optimism increased by 6.2 points to 51.8-mark in September from previous rise of 45.6-level in August.

US Dollar Index
The US Dollar Index (DX) declined by 0.6 percent on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global markets which led to fall in demand for the low yielding currency. The currency declined taking cues from expectations of stimulus measures from US and China to boost the economic growth in the world largest two economies. Additionally, US equities also ended on an upbeat note which added downside pressure on the currency. It touched an intra-day low of 79.77 in yesterdays trading session and closed at 79.84 on Tuesday.

Source: Reuters

US Dollar (% change)
Last Dollar Index US $ / INR (Spot) 79.84 55.25 55.47 55.46 Prev. day -0.6 0.3 -0.13 -0.14

as on September 11, 2012 WoW -1.8 0.6 -0.61 -0.63 MoM -3.3 0.6 -0.05 -0.06 YoY 2.8 -14.5 19.93 19.89

Dollar/INR
The Indian Rupee appreciated by 0.3 percent in the yesterdays trading session. The currency appreciated taking cues from increase in the FII inflows coupled with expectations of stimulus measures from US and China. Additionally, a weaker DX also supported further upside in the currency. However, dollar demand from the oil companies capped sharp positive movement in the currency. It touched an intra-day high of 55.25 in yesterdays trade and closed at same level on Tuesday. For the current month, FII inflows totaled at Rs 1,340.80 crores till 11 September 2012. While year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs 64,410.40 crores till 11th September 2012. Outlook In todays session, we expect rupee to appreciate due to rise in the risk appetite in the global markets along with weakness in the DX. Additionally, expectations of positive Industrial output from the country can further appreciate the currency.
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US $ / INR Sep12 Futures (NSE) US $ / INR Sep12 Futures (MCX-SX)

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart USD/INR

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Trend US Dollar/INR Sep12 (NSE/MCX-SX) Down

valid for September 12, 2012 Support 55.37/55.28 Resistance 55.6/55.75

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Currencies Daily Report

Wednesday| September 12, 2012

Euro/INR
The Euro increased 0.5 percent in yesterday session on expectations that German constitutional court might clear the way for ruling on the $500 billion euro ($640 billion) on September 12, 2012. Additionally, weakness in the DX along with favorable economic data from the region is also supported an upside in the currency. It touched a high of 1.2871 and closed at 1.2854 on Monday. French Final Non-Farm Payrolls remained unchanged at -0.1 percent in Q2 of 2012. German Wholesale Price Index (WPI) increased to 1.1 percent in August as against a rise of 0.3 percent in July. Outlook In todays session we expect Euro to trade higher on the back of upbeat global market sentiments along with favourable economic data from the region today. Weakness in the DX is also expected to add to the appreciation of the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR Sep12 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up 70.75/70.6 71.05/71.2 valid for September 12, 2012 Support Resistance

Euro (% change)
Last Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR Sep12 Futures (NSE) Euro / INR Sep12 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.2854 71.01 70.88 70.9 Prev. day 0.8 -0.4 -0.04 -0.04

as on September 11, 2012 WoW 2.3 -1.6 0.90 0.89 MoM 4.3 -3.7 4.12 4.09 YoY -6.0 -9.1 9.01 9.03

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Euro

Source: Telequote

GBP/INR
The Pound appreciated by 0.5 percent yesterday taking cues from upbeat global market sentiments along with weakness in the DX. Additionally, favorable economic data from the country also acted as a positive factor for the currency. It touched an intra-day high of 1.6083 and closed at 1.6068 on Tuesday. UKs Trade Balance was at a deficit of 7.1 billion Pounds in July as against a previous deficit of 10.1 billion Pounds a month ago. Outlook We expect Pound to trade on a bullish note on account of upbeat global market sentiments coupled with weakness in the DX. However, sharp upside in the currency would be capped on the back of mixed economic data from the country. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR Sep 12 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up valid for September 12, 2012 Support 88.7/88.5 Resistance 89.05/89.25

GBP (% change)
Last $ / GBP (Spot) GBP / INR (Spot) GBP / INR Sep12 Futures (NSE) GBP / INR Sep12 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.6068 88.78 88.87 Prev. day 0.5 -0.2 0.12

as on September 11, 2012

WoW 1.3 -0.6 0.36

MoM 2.5 -1.8 2.73

YoY 1.3 -18.6 20.13

88.86

0.12

0.36

2.72

20.13

Source: Reuters

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Currencies Daily Report

Wednesday| September 12, 2012

JPY/INR
The Japanese Yen appreciated by 0.7 percent yesterday on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global markets in the early part of the trade. Additionally, positive economic data from the country also helped upside in the currency. It touched an intra-day high of 77.67 and closed at 77.75 in yesterdays trading session. Japans Prelim Machine Tool Orders declined by 2.6 percent in August as against a previous decline of 6.7 percent in July. Japans Core Machinery Orders increased at slow pace of 4.6 percent in July as against a previous rise of 5.6 percent a month ago. Tertiary Industry Activity declined by 0.8 percent in July from earlier rise of 0.2 percent in June. Corporate Goods Price Index (CGPI) declined by 1.8 percent in August as compared to previous decline of 2.2 percent in July. Outlook In todays trade, we expect Yen to depreciate on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global markets which will lead to fall in demand for the low yielding currency. However, sharp downside in the currency will be cushioned on account of positive economic data from the country. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR Sep 12 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up valid for September 12, 2012 Support 70.90/70.75 Resistance 71.15/71.30

JPY (% change)
Last 77.75 0.7102 71.04 71.05 Prev day -0.7 -0.3 0.20 0.22

as on September 11, 2012 WoW -0.8 -0.2 -0.17 -0.17 MoM -1.2 -0.6 0.48 0.50 YoY 0.7 -16.1 18.64 18.60

JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR Sep12 Futures (NSE) JPY 100 / INR Sep12 Futures (MCX-SX)

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart JPY

Source: Telequote

Economic Indicators to be released on September 12, 2012

Indicator Core Machinery Orders m/m Tertiary Industry Activity m/m Italian Industrial Production m/m German Constitutional Court Ruling Claimant Count Change Unemployment Rate Industrial Production m/m MPC Member Broadbent Speaks Import Prices m/m Crude Oil Inventories 10-y Bond Auction Country Japan Japan Euro Euro UK UK Euro UK US US US Time (IST) 5:20am 5:20am 1:30pm Tentative 2:00pm 2:00pm 2:30pm 4:30pm 6:00pm 8:00pm 10:30pm Actual 4.6% -0.8% Forecast 1.8% -0.4% -0.4% 0.1K 8.0% 0.0% 1.4% Previous 5.6% 0.1% -1.4% -5.9K 8.0% -0.6% -0.6% -7.4M 1.68/2.5 Impact Medium Medium Medium High High Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium

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