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Market Outlook

March 7, 2013

Dealers Diary

Domestic Indices

The Indian market is expected to open in the red today, mirroring negative
opening trades in the SGX Nifty and mixed opening in the Asian markets.

Chg (%)

(Pts)

(Close)

BSE Sensex

0.6

Nifty

0.6

34.3

5,819

After moving notably higher over the course of Tuesdays session, US stocks turned
in a relatively lackluster performance during trading on Wednesday, amid
uncertainty about the near-term outlook for the markets, following recent strength.
The majority of the European markets ended Wednesday's trading session in
negative territory. The markets were up in early trade, adding to the strong rally of
the previous session. The better-than-expected private sector employment data
released in the afternoon also provided support. However, those early gains began
to erode in late trading. Investors will watch out for Thursday's announcement from
the ECB, as well as the US jobs report on Friday.

MID CAP

1.1

72.4

6,410

SMALL CAP

1.5

92.1

6,238

BSE HC

0.2

14.0

7,929

BSE PSU

0.7

45.4

6,905

BANKEX

0.6

87.7 13,616

AUTO

0.3

34.6 10,755

METAL

2.2

200.5

9,329

OIL & GAS

0.8

73.4

8,833

BSE IT

1.3

90.2

6,945

Meanwhile, Indian shares rose on Wednesday, mirroring strong global cues, with
upbeat economic data from the United States and continued hopes for easy
monetary policy in Japan and elsewhere underpinning sentiment.

Global Indices

(Pts)

(Close)

Markets Today

Dow Jones

Chg (%)

0.3

109.4 19,253

42.5 14,296

NASDAQ

(0.1)

(1.8)

3,222

FTSE

(0.1)

(4.3)

6,428

Nikkei

2.1

248.8 11,932

The trend deciding level for the day is 19,247/ 5,814 levels. If NIFTY trades above
this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally
up to 19,299 19,345 / 5,833 5,848 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below
19,247/ 5,814 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to
19,201 19,149 / 5,800 5,780 levels.

Hang Seng

1.0

217.3 22,778

Straits Times

1.3

43.6

3,292

Shanghai Com

0.9

20.9

2,347

Chg (%)

(Pts)

(Close)

Indices

S2

S1

PIVOT

R1

R2

INFY

1.1

0.6

$54.8

SENSEX

19,149

19,201

19,247

19,299

19,345

WIT

1.7

0.2

$10.0

5,848

IBN

(0.8)

(0.4)

$43.0

HDB

(0.5)

(0.2)

$37.8

NIFTY

5,780

5,800

5,814

5,833

Indian ADR

News Analysis

Advances / Declines

Cement dispatches February 2013


Tool down protest at MMs Nashik plant impacts production

Refer detailed news analysis on the following page

` cr

Purch

Sales

Net

MTD

YTD

FII

3,561

3,440

121

1,036

45,388

346

458

(112)

(171)

(5,732)

FII Derivatives (March 06, 2013)


` cr

Purch

Sales

Net

Index Futures

1,379

1,188

191

9,950

Stock Futures

1,715

1,107

608

24,819

Open Interest

Price (`)

chg (%)

Company

Gainers / Losers
Gainers
Company
HDIL

Losers
Price (`)

chg (%)
(7.3)

68

12.2

Astrazeneca Phar

773

M& M Fin

204

7.0

MMTC

319

(6.1)

Oberoi Realty

283

5.8

Cadila Health

737

(3.6)

74

5.5

Piramal Ent

564

(3.2)

236

4.8

Sun TV Network

422

(2.2)

Jaiprakash Asso
REC

www.angelbroking.com

NSE

Advances

1,730

1,034

Declines

1,116

468

131

83

Unchanged

Net Inflows (March 04, 2013)

MFs

BSE

Volumes (` cr)

BSE

1,960

NSE

11,272

Market Outlook
March 7, 2013

Cement dispatches February 2013


Cement demand continued to remain weak during February 2013 as economic
slowdown impacted construction activities. Prolonged cold weather too impacted
demand in some regions during the month. During February 2013 Ultratech
Cement posted a 5.9% yoy decline in cement dispatches to 3.31mn tonnes. Shree
Cement too posted a 16% yoy decline in dispatches to 0.97mn tonnes. JK Lakshmi
Cement posted a marginal 1.3% yoy decline in dispatches. However, Dalmia
Bharat Cement a south based player posted an impressive 33% yoy growth in
dispatches for the month of February. We maintain a Buy on JK Lakshmi Cement
with a target price of `143. We maintain a neutral on Ultratech Cement and Shree
Cement.

Tool down protest at MMs Nashik plant impacts production


As per media reports, around 3,000 workers at Mahindra and Mahindras (MM)
Nashik plant are on a tool down protest since March 5, 2013. The workers have
been protesting against the suspension of the Union general secretary who was
being alleged of stopping the production on March 3, 2013. The workers at the
plant have been agitating over the issue of the impending salary revisions.
According to the company, the Employee Union has also issued a notice of strike
on or after March 11, 2013, should the Charter of Demand made by union is not
settled.
The tool down strike has impacted the production of the company and according
to the initial estimates the company has lost around 500 units of production. The
Nashik plant of MM manufactures popular models like, Scorpio, Xylo, Bolero and
Verito. While the loss in production is not likely to have immediate impact given
that MM has three weeks of channel inventory; we fear that a prolonged strike
would impact the sales volume significantly. However on the positive side,
management has stated that they are in a regular dialogue with the Union
members for the wage negotiation process and expects to reach a mutually
agreeable settlement at the earliest possible. At `878, MM is trading at 13.7x
FY2014 earnings. We maintain our Buy rating on the stock with an SOTP based
target price of `1,019.

Economic and Political News

Share of exports in India's overall GDP rises to 17.7% in FY12


Companies facing probe allowed to tap ECBs via automatic route: RBI
Moily red flags Finance Ministry's proposal on fuel pricing
Power Ministry seeks feedback from companies to overcome sectoral issues

Corporate News

4,000 MW Mundra UMPP fully operational: Tata Power


RCF stake sale offer on March 8: disinvestment secretary
RIL teams up with Samsung, plans 4G phones for 5.5k
Coal India's CMD should be replaced, says UK-based TCI

Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
March 07, 2013
Global economic events release calendar
Date

Time

Country Event Description

Unit

Period

Bloomberg Data
Last Reported Estimated

March 7, 2013

March 8, 2013

March 9, 2013
March 11, 2013
March 12, 2013
March 14, 2013
March 15, 2013

March 19, 2013

March 20, 2013

7:00PM

US

Initial Jobless claims

5:30PM

UK

BOE Announces rates

Thousands

Mar 2

344.00

355.00

% Ratio

Mar 7

0.50

0.50

6:15PM

Euro Zone ECB announces interest rates

Mar 7

0.75

0.75

5:29PM

China

7:00PM

US

Exports YoY%

% Change

Feb

25.00

8.10

Change in Nonfarm payrolls

Thousands

Feb

157.00

160.00

7:00PM

US

Unnemployment rate

7:00AM

China

Consumer Price Index (YoY)

Feb

7.90

7.90

% Change

Feb

2.00

3.00

11:00AM

China

Industrial Production (YoY)

% Change

Feb

10.30

10.30

4:29PM

India

4:29PM

India

Imports YoY%

% Change

Feb

6.10

--

Exports YoY%

% Change

Feb

0.80

--

3:00PM

UK

Industrial Production (YoY)

% Change

Jan

(1.70)

--

11:00AM

India

Industrial Production YoY

% Change

Jan

(0.60)

--

6:00PM

US

Producer Price Index (mom)

% Change

Feb

0.20

0.70

12:00PM

India

Monthly Wholesale Prices YoY%

% Change

Feb

6.62

--

3:30PM

Euro Zone Euro-Zone CPI (YoY)

Feb

2.00

--

6:00PM

US

Consumer price index (mom)

% Change

Feb

--

0.50

6:45PM

US

Industrial Production

Feb

(0.10)

0.30

6:00PM

US

Housing Starts

Thousands

Feb

890.00

--

6:00PM

US

Building permits

Thousands

Feb

904.00

--

3:00PM

UK

CPI (YoY)

% Change

Feb

2.70

--

11:00AM

India

RBI Repo rate

Mar 19

7.75

--

11:00AM

India

RBI Cash Reserve ratio

Mar 19

4.00

--

11:00AM

India

RBI Reverse Repo rate

Mar 19

6.75

--

8:30PM

Euro Zone Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence

Value

Mar A

(23.60)

--

% Change

Feb

(12.50)

--

Mar 20

0.25

--

Value

Mar A

54.70

--

3:00PM

UK

Jobless claims change

10:00PM

US

FOMC rate decision

2:00PM

Germany PMI Services

2:00PM

Germany PMI Manufacturing

7:30PM

US

Existing home sales

7:30PM

US

Consumer Confidence

7:30PM

US

New home sales

March 27, 2013

3:00PM

UK

GDP (YoY)

March 28, 2013

2:25PM

Germany Unemployment change (000's)

6:00PM

US

GDP Qoq (Annualised)

April 1, 2013

6:30AM

China

PMI Manufacturing

April 2, 2013

2:00PM

UK

PMI Manufacturing

April 15, 2013

7:30AM

China

Real GDP (YoY)

May 15, 2013

11:30AM

Germany GDP nsa (YoY)

March 21, 2013

March 26, 2013

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

Value

Mar A

50.30

--

Millions

Feb

4.92

--

S.A./ 1985=100

Mar

69.60

--

Thousands

Feb

437.00

--

% Change

4Q F

0.30

--

Thousands

Mar

(3.00)

--

% Change

4Q T

0.10

--

Value

Mar

50.10

--

Value

Mar

47.90

--

% Change

1Q

7.90

--

% Change

1Q P

0.10

--

Market Outlook
March 07, 2013

Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends

Exhibit 2: IIP trends

(%)

(%)
11.2

10.0

8.5
7.6

7.5

8.2

6.0

7.5
6.5

5.7

6.0

5.3 5.5 5.3


4.5

2.5

2.0

1.0

2.0

(4.0)

7.5

7.6

Dec-12

Nov-12

Oct-12

Sep-12

Aug-12

Jul-12

Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI


Mfg. PMI

58.0
7.7

Jun-12

Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

(%)
7.6

May-12

Apr-12

Mar-12

(2.0)

Feb-12

Jan-12

3QFY13

2QFY13

1QFY13

4QFY12

3QFY12

2QFY12

1QFY12

4QFY11

3QFY11

2QFY11

1QFY11

4QFY10

3QFY10

2QFY10

Exhibit 3: Monthly WPI inflation trends

7.6

7.5

8.0

Services PMI

8.1
7.3

7.2

7.2

56.0
6.6

54.0
52.0

Feb-13

Jan-13

Dec-12

Nov-12

Oct-12

Sep-12

Aug-12

Jul-12

Jun-12

May-12

Apr-12

Mar-12

Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion

Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends


(%)

48.0
Feb-12

Jan-13

Dec-12

Nov-12

Oct-12

Sep-12

Aug-12

Jul-12

Jun-12

May-12

Apr-12

Mar-12

50.0

Feb-12

8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0

4.3

4.0

Source: CSO, Angel Research

9.0

8.3

8.0

9.2

9.0

1QFY10

12.0
11.0
10.0
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0

Exports yoy growth

Exhibit 6: Key policy rates


Repo rate

(%)
9.50

Imports yoy growth

30.0

15.0

Reverse Repo rate

CRR

8.50

7.75

7.50

6.75

6.50

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

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4.00

4.50

Source: RBI, Angel Research

Feb-13

Jan-13

Dec-12

Nov-12

Oct-12

Sep-12

Aug-12

Jul-12

Jun-12

May-12

3.50

Apr-12

Jan-13

Dec-12

Nov-12

Oct-12

Sep-12

Aug-12

5.50

Mar-12

(30.0)

Jul-12

Jun-12

May-12

Apr-12

Mar-12

(15.0)

Feb-12

0.0

Market Outlook
March 07, 2013

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

Sales ( cr )

OPM(%)

EPS ( )

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

RoE(%)

EV/Sales(x)

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

Agri / Agri Chemical


Rallis

Neutral

117

2,267

1,466

1,686

14.8

14.8

7.0

8.1

16.7

14.4

3.5

3.0

22.6

22.5

1.6

1.4

United Phosphorus

Buy

121

170

5,340

8,421

9,263

16.5

16.5

15.0

17.0

8.0

7.1

1.2

1.0

15.6

15.5

0.8

0.7

Amara Raja Batteries

Accumulate

284

323

4,854

2,983

3,477

16.1

16.1

18.5

21.6

15.4

13.2

4.4

3.4

32.9

29.1

1.6

1.4

Apollo Tyres

Accumulate

89

97

4,486

13,066

14,503

11.5

11.8

13.0

14.5

6.8

6.2

1.3

1.1

21.0

19.4

0.5

0.5

Ashok Leyland

Buy

23

28

6,199

12,910

14,836

8.8

9.6

1.5

2.2

15.7

10.5

2.1

1.9

9.3

13.4

0.6

0.5

Automotive Axle#

Neutral

290

438

934

1,103

10.2

10.7

24.5

34.3

11.8

8.4

1.5

1.4

13.2

16.9

0.5

0.4

Bajaj Auto

Neutral

1,975

57,138

20,775

23,889

18.5

19.0

107.6

126.4

18.4

15.6

7.6

6.0

45.8

42.8

2.4

2.0

Bharat Forge

Accumulate

220

242

5,130

5,973

6,707

14.4

15.2

13.4

18.6

16.5

11.9

2.1

1.9

13.6

16.9

1.0

0.8

Bosch India*

Accumulate

8,367

8,889

26,272

9,717

11,092

16.2

17.0

354.7

423.3

23.6

19.8

4.1

3.5

17.2

17.5

2.4

2.0

CEAT

Buy

95

163

327

4,822

5,403

8.2

8.3

29.8

40.8

3.2

2.3

0.4

0.4

14.5

17.0

0.3

0.2

Exide Industries

Neutral

126

10,748

6,016

7,026

12.7

14.4

5.8

7.8

21.6

16.1

3.2

2.8

15.4

18.2

1.5

1.2

FAG Bearings*

Accumulate

1,491

1,569

2,477

1,619

1,879

16.0

16.6

108.6

130.7

13.7

11.4

2.4

2.0

18.8

19.1

1.3

1.1

Hero Motocorp

Buy

1,647

1,923

32,879

23,990

27,038

13.8

14.6

105.8

120.2

15.6

13.7

6.3

5.1

44.3

41.0

1.1

0.9

JK Tyre

Buy

105

165

431

7,169

7,929

6.9

7.1

40.4

41.3

2.6

2.5

0.5

0.4

20.5

18.0

0.4

0.3

Auto & Auto Ancillary

Mahindra and Mahindra Buy

878

1,019

53,929

40,060

46,301

11.5

11.7

55.3

64.3

15.9

13.7

3.6

3.0

24.5

23.8

1.1

0.9

Maruti

Accumulate

1,422

1,563

41,084

43,381

52,411

7.5

8.9

65.6

97.7

21.7

14.6

2.4

2.1

11.8

15.6

0.8

0.6

Motherson Sumi

Accumulate

195

209

11,484

25,769

29,010

7.1

7.5

10.2

13.1

19.2

15.0

4.8

3.8

28.1

28.3

0.6

0.5

Subros

Buy

25

35

152

1,296

1,476

9.8

9.9

3.4

5.0

7.6

5.0

0.5

0.5

7.2

10.2

0.4

0.4

Tata Motors

Accumulate

309

326

82,432 184,201 209,642

12.4

13.5

28.0

36.3

11.0

8.5

2.4

2.0

24.6

25.4

0.5

0.5

TVS Motor

Buy

39

47

1,841

7,019

7,827

6.0

6.3

4.3

5.3

9.1

7.4

1.4

1.2

16.4

18.0

0.2

0.2

ABB*

Sell

578

487

12,244

8,073

9,052

5.5

7.2

11.3

17.4

51.3

33.2

4.4

4.0

8.9

12.8

1.5

1.3

BGR Energy

Neutral

208

1,497

3,412

4,104

13.0

11.6

24.6

26.2

8.4

7.9

1.2

1.1

30.7

25.7

0.8

0.7

BHEL

Neutral

203

49,711

47,801

43,757

18.0

17.1

24.1

20.8

8.4

9.8

2.5

2.1

32.9

23.6

0.9

1.0

Blue Star

Buy

167

238

1,500

2,748

2,896

4.4

5.6

6.8

9.3

24.6

17.9

3.4

3.0

14.5

17.6

0.7

0.6

Crompton Greaves

Buy

96

129

6,139

12,136

13,790

3.8

6.3

3.3

6.9

29.0

13.9

1.7

1.5

5.8

11.5

0.5

0.5

Jyoti Structures

Buy

34

49

282

2,802

3,074

9.5

9.8

7.7

10.9

4.5

3.2

0.4

0.4

9.6

12.1

0.3

0.3

KEC International

Buy

49

75

1,255

6,909

7,723

6.2

7.2

5.4

8.4

9.1

5.8

1.1

0.9

17.0

22.8

0.3

0.3

LMW

Neutral

2,025

2,281

2,369

2,727

11.7

11.7

143.4

166.0

14.1

12.2

2.4

2.2

17.4

18.4

0.5

0.4

Thermax

Neutral

586

6,987

5,529

5,798

9.0

9.6

27.1

30.3

21.6

19.4

3.8

3.3

18.6

18.2

1.1

1.0

Capital Goods

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Market Outlook
March 07, 2013

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

Sales ( cr )

OPM(%)

EPS ( )

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

RoE(%)

EV/Sales(x)

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

Cement
ACC

Neutral

1,254

23,546

11,358

12,366

19.9

19.6

75.1

74.9

16.7

16.7

3.2

2.9

19.4

18.1

1.8

1.6

Ambuja Cements

Neutral

192

29,656

9,730

11,221

25.6

25.0

10.2

11.3

18.8

17.0

3.4

3.1

18.7

19.0

2.6

2.2

India Cements

Neutral

84

2,582

4,439

4,789

16.7

17.2

6.8

9.1

12.4

9.3

0.7

0.7

6.0

7.7

1.0

0.9

J K Lakshmi Cements

Accumulate

124

143

1,522

2,119

2,478

22.9

22.3

20.3

22.8

6.1

5.5

1.1

0.9

18.0

17.7

0.8

1.1

Madras Cements

Neutral

246

5,845

3,960

4,270

27.4

27.0

18.6

21.1

13.2

11.7

2.4

2.0

19.7

18.9

2.1

1.8

Shree Cements^

Neutral

4,192

14,605

5,678

6,251

29.0

28.6

288.1

334.0

14.6

12.6

4.1

3.2

31.7

28.4

2.0

1.7

UltraTech Cement

Neutral

1,897

52,007

20,466

23,017

23.3

24.3

100.0

117.1

19.0

16.2

3.4

2.9

19.6

19.5

2.5

2.3

199

268

1,045

20,466

23,017

22.5

22.5

24.4

27.0

8.2

7.4

1.0

0.8

12.3

12.1

0.2

0.2

Construction
Ashoka Buildcon

Buy

Consolidated Co

Neutral

11

203

2,262

2,522

5.9

6.3

0.9

1.6

12.0

7.1

0.3

0.3

2.7

4.6

0.4

0.4

IRB Infra

Buy

118

164

3,932

3,843

4,212

43.1

43.6

16.8

17.8

7.0

6.6

1.2

1.1

18.3

17.0

3.1

3.4

ITNL

Accumulate

202

225

3,929

6,564

7,054

27.2

27.4

26.3

29.0

7.7

7.0

1.2

1.1

17.0

16.3

2.7

2.8

IVRCL Infra

Buy

26

35

783

3,773

6,706

6.9

8.4

(3.9)

2.9

(6.6)

8.9

0.4

0.4

(5.4)

4.1

0.9

0.6

Jaiprakash Asso.

Buy

74

97

16,477

14,243

16,382

26.2

26.1

3.2

4.3

23.2

17.1

1.2

1.2

5.4

7.0

2.6

2.4

Larsen & Toubro

Buy

1,434

1,788

88,228

60,666

69,525

10.6

11.2

71.9

85.0

20.0

16.9

3.1

2.7

14.5

15.2

1.6

1.5

Nagarjuna Const.

Buy

38

44

974

5,863

6,576

8.1

8.2

3.1

4.1

12.3

9.3

0.4

0.4

3.2

4.2

0.6

0.5

Punj Lloyd

Neutral

46

1,528

11,892

13,116

10.2

10.2

(0.4)

3.0

(107.9)

15.5

0.5

0.5

3.8

0.5

0.5

Sadbhav Engg.

Buy

111

157

1,679

1,642

2,642

9.7

10.1

3.2

7.2

34.7

15.4

2.0

1.8

6.0

12.1

1.3

0.8

Simplex Infra

Buy

151

197

747

6,026

7,135

9.1

9.3

14.1

24.6

10.7

6.2

0.6

0.5

5.6

9.2

0.5

0.5

Unity Infra

Buy

33

58

243

2,180

2,455

13.7

13.4

12.9

14.8

2.5

2.2

0.3

0.3

12.1

12.5

0.5

0.5

143

160

7,170

6,509

7,264

2.7

2.8

28.2

33.5

5.1

4.3

0.7

0.6

13.8

14.7

98

5,464

4,795

5,475

3.0

3.0

21.8

21.9

4.5

4.5

0.8

0.7

15.4

13.8

Financials
Allahabad Bank

Accumulate

Andhra Bank

Neutral

Axis Bank

Buy

1,400

1,678

65,429

15,959

18,660

3.2

3.2

119.2

139.0

11.8

10.1

2.2

1.9

20.3

20.1

Bank of Baroda

Buy

730

850

30,018

14,889

17,393

2.5

2.6

108.2

134.0

6.8

5.5

1.0

0.9

15.3

16.7

Bank of India

Accumulate

315

350

18,060

12,793

14,823

2.3

2.4

49.5

65.1

6.4

4.8

0.9

0.8

13.6

16.0

Bank of Maharashtra

Neutral

53

3,148

3,720

4,268

2.9

2.8

10.9

13.0

4.9

4.1

0.7

0.7

16.2

16.9

Canara Bank

Accumulate

426

463

18,856

10,783

12,000

2.1

2.3

64.8

82.2

6.6

5.2

0.9

0.8

13.2

15.0

Central Bank

Neutral

Corporation Bank

Buy

Dena Bank

Accumulate

www.angelbroking.com

73

5,396

7,158

8,217

2.4

2.6

13.1

20.1

5.6

3.7

0.8

0.7

10.3

14.3

403

465

5,972

4,919

5,634

2.1

2.2

96.7

99.9

4.2

4.0

0.7

0.6

16.3

14.9

94

107

3,284

3,090

3,462

2.7

2.7

25.6

24.6

3.7

3.8

0.7

0.6

19.2

15.9

Market Outlook
March 07, 2013

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

Sales ( cr )

OPM(%)

EPS ( )

PER(x)

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

P/BV(x)

RoE(%)

EV/Sales(x)

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

Financials
Federal Bank

Accumulate

496

536

8,480

2,667

2,920

3.2

3.2

49.1

51.4

10.1

9.7

1.3

1.2

13.9

13.1

HDFC

Neutral

774

119,507

7,446

8,923

3.5

3.5

32.2

38.5

24.1

20.1

4.9

4.4

35.4

32.6

HDFC Bank

Accumulate

631

666

149,786

21,724

26,578

4.3

4.3

28.7

36.1

22.0

17.5

4.2

3.6

20.7

22.1

ICICI Bank

Buy

1,106

1,302

127,229

22,317

26,217

2.9

3.0

72.0

84.6

15.4

13.1

1.9

1.8

14.9

15.9

IDBI Bank

Buy

91

106

11,691

8,196

9,305

1.9

2.1

15.4

22.3

6.0

4.1

0.6

0.6

10.7

14.1

Indian Bank

Buy

173

208

7,418

5,716

6,362

3.2

3.2

37.7

41.1

4.6

4.2

0.8

0.6

16.9

16.2

IOB

Accumulate

74

85

5,874

7,231

8,369

2.4

2.5

10.2

20.2

7.2

3.6

0.6

0.5

7.4

13.4

J & K Bank

Accumulate

1,263

1,406

6,123

2,784

2,932

3.7

3.7

229.2

199.6

5.5

6.3

1.2

1.1

24.6

18.2

LIC Housing Finance

Accumulate

240

257

12,127

1,722

2,080

2.2

2.2

19.9

24.6

12.1

9.8

1.9

1.6

16.6

17.9

Oriental Bank

Accumulate

278

314

8,117

6,360

7,004

2.6

2.8

48.1

59.4

5.8

4.7

0.7

0.6

12.1

13.5

Punjab Natl.Bank

Buy

809

957

27,448

19,202

22,040

3.2

3.4

146.8

167.9

5.5

4.8

1.0

0.9

17.6

17.5

South Ind.Bank

Buy

25

30

3,293

1,583

1,789

3.0

2.9

3.5

4.1

7.1

6.1

1.2

1.0

19.1

17.7

St Bk of India

Buy

2,166

2,514

145,362

60,594

70,439

3.3

3.3

221.9

257.4

9.8

8.4

1.7

1.4

17.4

17.7

Syndicate Bank

Accumulate

122

135

7,326

6,673

7,644

2.9

3.0

32.0

27.9

3.8

4.4

0.8

0.7

22.0

16.5

UCO Bank

Neutral

Union Bank

Accumulate

United Bank

63

4,164

5,388

6,262

2.4

2.6

9.0

14.9

7.0

4.2

0.9

0.8

9.1

13.8

228

256

12,572

10,006

11,558

2.8

2.8

36.4

47.0

6.3

4.9

0.9

0.8

14.6

16.6

Buy

63

75

2,260

3,549

3,814

2.5

2.7

12.0

21.4

5.2

2.9

0.5

0.5

10.1

16.3

Vijaya Bank

Neutral

52

2,562

2,342

2,763

1.9

2.1

8.0

10.9

6.5

4.7

0.7

0.6

10.1

12.6

Yes Bank

Accumulate

482

526

17,271

3,364

4,260

2.8

3.0

36.3

42.6

13.3

11.3

3.0

2.4

24.6

23.6

4,451

42,698

11,198

13,319

15.9

15.7

122.1

147.1

36.5

30.3

12.3

9.6

37.7

35.7

3.7

3.1

FMCG
Asian Paints

Neutral

Britannia

Accumulate

508

564

6,077

5,580

6,417

4.8

5.0

18.1

21.7

28.1

23.5

10.2

8.2

38.7

38.7

1.0

0.8

Colgate

Neutral

1,355

18,432

3,120

3,588

20.3

21.1

38.4

45.1

35.3

30.1

32.8

26.3

104.6

97.0

5.7

4.9

Dabur India

Neutral

133

23,137

6,196

7,183

16.3

16.8

4.5

5.5

29.5

24.2

12.2

9.5

43.4

44.0

3.8

3.2

GlaxoSmith Con*

Neutral

4,193

17,636

3,084

3,617

15.2

16.3

103.9

123.0

40.4

34.1

13.0

10.7

34.9

34.3

5.2

4.5

Godrej Consumer

Neutral

754

25,667

6,386

7,743

15.7

17.0

20.8

27.1

36.2

27.8

7.8

6.4

23.7

26.4

4.2

3.4

HUL

Neutral

441

95,272

25,350

28,974

13.3

13.5

15.1

17.0

29.2

26.0

23.2

16.5

85.7

74.3

3.6

3.1

ITC

Neutral

288

226,865

29,148

34,191

35.7

36.1

9.4

11.1

30.7

25.9

10.2

8.5

35.9

35.7

7.5

6.3

Marico

Neutral

216

13,920

4,747

5,402

13.6

13.6

6.3

7.8

34.0

27.6

7.0

5.7

26.0

22.6

3.0

2.5

Nestle*

Neutral

4,724

45,542

8,302

9,739

22.0

21.5

110.7

130.8

42.7

36.1

25.3

18.2

69.5

58.6

5.5

4.6

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
March 07, 2013

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

Sales ( cr )

OPM(%)

EPS ( )

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

RoE(%)

EV/Sales(x)

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

Accumulate

130

145

8,042

7,272

7,998

9.1

9.9

6.9

8.1

19.0

16.2

2.0

1.9

8.9

9.7

1.0

0.9

HCL Tech^

Neutral

756

52,519

25,325

28,476

21.7

20.7

51.0

52.8

14.8

14.3

3.9

3.2

26.8

22.9

2.0

1.7

Hexaware*

Buy

87

113

2,588

1,948

2,136

20.9

18.3

10.9

10.1

8.0

8.6

2.1

1.8

27.2

21.0

1.1

0.9

Infosys

Neutral

2,966

170,344

40,746

44,283

28.9

28.8

162.6

172.9

18.3

17.2

4.3

3.7

23.5

21.3

3.6

3.2

Infotech Enterprises

Accumulate

173

184

1,934

1,881

1,987

17.9

17.4

18.5

19.4

9.4

8.9

1.4

1.2

14.8

13.6

0.7

0.6

KPIT Cummins

Buy

105

134

2,026

2,234

2,477

15.8

15.2

10.9

12.8

9.6

8.2

2.1

1.6

22.2

20.6

0.9

0.7

Mahindra Satyam

Neutral

121

14,279

7,711

8,683

21.6

20.3

8.7

11.3

13.9

10.7

3.3

2.5

30.6

23.7

1.4

1.2

Mindtree

Neutral

874

3,632

2,357

2,580

21.0

19.3

84.4

86.8

10.4

10.1

2.7

2.2

26.8

21.7

1.3

1.1

Mphasis&

Neutral

396

8,327

5,531

5,874

17.6

17.5

35.4

37.7

11.2

10.5

1.6

1.4

14.7

13.5

1.0

0.8

NIIT

Buy

23

36

379

1,048

1,161

9.1

10.9

4.1

6.2

5.6

3.7

0.6

0.5

10.3

14.1

0.2

0.1

Persistent

Neutral

566

2,264

1,297

1,433

25.6

24.1

46.5

54.0

12.2

10.5

2.3

1.9

18.5

18.0

1.4

1.2

TCS

Reduce

1,558

1,465

304,896

62,954

70,871

29.0

28.9

71.6

79.1

21.8

19.7

7.2

5.9

33.2

29.7

4.6

4.1

Tech Mahindra

Accumulate

1,079

1,205

13,813

6,789

7,609

21.0

19.6

95.8

110.7

11.3

9.8

2.7

2.2

24.3

22.3

2.1

1.8

Wipro

Neutral

441

108,635

43,514

47,304

20.1

19.4

26.6

27.7

16.6

15.9

3.2

2.8

19.7

17.9

2.2

1.9

D B Corp

Buy

236

276

4,335

1,583

1,787

23.9

25.4

11.9

14.5

20.0

16.3

3.9

3.4

21.4

22.4

2.6

2.3

HT Media

Accumulate

101

113

2,384

2,061

2,205

14.0

15.1

6.6

7.9

15.3

12.9

1.5

1.4

10.3

11.0

0.8

0.7

Jagran Prakashan

Buy

98

125

3,090

1,511

1,698

23.2

23.4

6.4

7.3

15.2

13.4

3.8

3.4

25.9

26.6

2.2

1.9

PVR

Neutral

284

823

820

1,307

17.3

17.3

11.2

17.8

25.5

16.0

1.2

1.1

9.7

10.8

1.1

0.7

Sun TV Network

Neutral

422

16,628

1,942

2,237

77.2

75.5

17.6

19.1

24.0

22.1

5.8

5.2

25.8

25.2

8.1

7.0

Bhushan Steel

Neutral

465

10,534

10,746

13,982

30.8

31.1

43.3

55.5

10.7

8.4

1.1

1.0

11.4

12.6

3.1

2.4

Coal India

Buy

317

368

200,197

66,666

70,292

25.7

27.3

24.2

26.6

13.1

11.9

3.9

3.1

33.1

29.1

2.0

1.8

Electrosteel Castings

Buy

19

28

649

1,984

2,074

10.6

11.6

1.8

2.6

10.6

7.2

0.4

0.1

3.6

5.1

0.5

0.4

Hind. Zinc

Buy

120

149

50,704

12,002

13,759

49.7

50.8

14.7

16.4

8.2

7.3

1.6

1.3

21.1

19.8

2.3

1.7

Hindalco

Neutral

102

19,481

80,205

88,987

9.0

9.2

13.4

13.8

7.6

7.4

0.6

0.5

7.9

7.6

0.6

0.6

JSW Steel

Neutral

744

16,610

39,072

40,493

16.5

18.2

82.4

90.3

9.0

8.3

0.9

0.8

10.7

10.7

0.8

0.8

MOIL

Neutral

240

4,035

933

954

46.9

45.5

25.8

26.1

9.3

9.2

1.5

1.3

16.7

15.1

1.9

1.7

Monnet Ispat

Buy

243

318

1,545

2,287

2,883

21.8

21.8

35.3

40.7

6.9

6.0

0.6

0.6

9.6

10.2

1.9

1.4

Nalco

Neutral

44

11,288

6,630

8,357

11.4

14.5

2.1

3.3

20.6

13.4

1.0

0.9

4.6

6.9

1.0

0.9

NMDC

Buy

143

181

56,795

9,674

11,536

75.2

76.6

16.0

18.6

9.0

7.7

1.9

1.6

23.6

23.0

3.7

2.9

FMCG
Tata Global
IT

Media

Metals & Mining

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
March 07, 2013

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

Sales ( cr )

OPM(%)

EPS ( )

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

RoE(%)

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

EV/Sales(x)

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

Metals & Mining


SAIL

Neutral

Sesa Goa

Accumulate

Sterlite Inds

Accumulate

Tata Steel

Buy

Sarda

Buy

109

148

391

1,442

Prakash Industries
Godawari Power and
Ispat
Oil & Gas

Buy

34

52

463

Buy

94

112

Cairn India

Buy

299

GAIL

Neutral

334

ONGC

Accumulate

318

Reliance Industries

Neutral

835

Gujarat Gas*

Neutral

264

3,381

3,707

Indraprastha Gas

Neutral

267

3,738

Petronet LNG
Gujarat State Petronet
Ltd.
Pharmaceuticals

Buy

149

179

67

Alembic Pharma

Neutral

Aurobindo Pharma

Buy

Aventis*

Neutral

2,341

Cadila Healthcare

Accumulate

737

Cipla

Accumulate

382

Dr Reddy's

Neutral

Dishman Pharma

Buy

GSK Pharma*

Neutral

Indoco Remedies

Buy

Ipca labs

Neutral

71

29,120

43,438

56,199

12.0

12.2

6.5

8.5

10.8

8.3

0.7

0.7

6.6

8.2

0.9

0.7

162

183

14,075

2,412

3,911

30.8

33.1

29.6

31.8

5.5

5.1

0.8

0.7

16.3

15.4

7.3

4.5

99

110

33,271

43,185

45,442

23.3

23.7

16.8

17.9

5.9

5.5

0.7

0.6

11.6

11.2

0.8

0.7

353

443

34,269 142,732 146,575

7.4

9.9

7.2

34.7

49.1

10.2

0.8

0.7

1.6

7.5

0.5

0.5

1,494

19.0

19.1

29.2

31.7

3.7

3.4

0.4

0.4

12.3

12.0

0.6

0.6

2,512

2,816

12.4

13.7

10.0

12.6

3.5

2.7

0.2

0.2

7.2

8.4

0.5

0.4

298

2,367

2,425

14.2

13.7

33.3

33.5

2.8

2.8

0.3

0.3

12.9

11.2

0.6

0.5

383

57,133

17,394

17,034

76.4

72.3

60.8

55.1

4.9

5.4

1.0

0.9

21.9

17.0

2.5

2.1

42,335

48,077

55,815

15.3

15.3

34.9

35.9

9.6

9.3

1.7

1.5

19.0

17.0

0.6

0.5

357

272,450 144,089 158,065

32.8

34.7

28.7

34.4

11.1

9.3

1.8

1.6

17.0

18.3

1.6

1.4

269,513 362,700 380,031

8.9

8.9

68.1

71.5

12.3

11.7

1.3

1.2

12.4

11.8

0.7

0.7

3,850

11.7

12.4

23.7

25.7

11.1

10.3

3.1

2.7

29.6

28.2

0.8

0.7

3,365

3,700

22.8

23.4

25.3

26.6

10.5

10.0

2.5

2.1

26.0

22.6

1.2

1.1

11,164

32,210

41,362

6.1

5.8

15.4

15.6

9.7

9.5

2.5

2.1

29.1

24.1

0.4

0.3

3,779

1,079

983

91.8

91.9

8.8

7.8

7.7

8.6

1.3

1.2

17.8

14.1

3.2

3.5

96

1,801

1,490

1,714

16.2

17.1

7.4

9.5

12.9

10.1

3.5

2.7

30.7

30.2

1.3

1.1

164

208

4,789

5,463

6,279

15.0

15.0

12.4

14.0

13.3

11.8

1.7

1.5

18.8

17.8

1.5

1.3

5,392

1,482

1,682

17.5

16.6

82.9

87.8

28.2

26.7

4.4

3.6

16.3

14.8

3.4

2.9

817

15,098

6,148

7,386

15.3

18.0

24.6

39.5

30.0

18.7

5.6

4.5

18.4

25.1

2.8

2.3

419

30,664

8,151

9,130

25.8

24.8

20.2

21.6

18.9

17.7

3.4

2.9

19.4

17.6

3.5

3.1

1,808

30,688

10,696

11,662

20.7

21.0

83.7

92.9

21.6

19.5

4.4

3.7

22.4

20.8

3.2

2.8

73

155

589

1,280

1,536

20.2

20.2

12.1

15.5

6.0

4.7

0.6

0.5

10.0

11.6

1.2

1.0

2,111

17,882

2,651

2,993

31.7

31.2

76.0

82.4

27.8

25.6

8.0

7.2

20.1

26.3

5.9

5.2

63

78

578

642

784

14.2

15.2

5.7

7.8

11.0

8.0

1.3

1.2

12.9

16.4

1.1

0.9

Accumulate

488

559

6,151

2,850

3,474

21.0

21.0

29.9

37.3

16.3

13.1

3.9

3.1

26.7

26.4

2.4

1.9

Lupin

Accumulate

598

655

26,767

8,426

10,082

19.7

20.0

26.1

31.1

22.9

19.2

5.3

4.3

25.8

24.7

3.3

2.7

Ranbaxy*

Neutral

401

16,954

12,253

11,400

14.1

12.5

31.2

21.6

12.9

18.6

4.2

3.6

37.9

20.6

1.3

1.4

Sun Pharma

Neutral

798

82,481

10,111

12,563

42.6

42.6

28.9

29.8

27.6

26.8

5.6

4.8

22.3

19.2

7.5

5.9

72

78

1,091

1,502

1,535

32.1

31.9

11.4

12.5

6.3

5.8

0.7

0.7

7.6

11.9

1.2

1.0

Power
GIPCL

Accumulate

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
March 07, 2013

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

Sales ( cr )

OPM(%)

EPS ( )

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

RoE(%)

EV/Sales(x)

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

Accumulate

149

163

122,445

72,809

81,951

23.4

24.1

12.2

13.6

12.2

10.9

1.5

1.4

12.2

12.5

2.3

2.2

DLF

Accumulate

270

288

45,789

7,953

9,699

34.7

37.0

4.4

6.0

61.7

45.2

1.8

1.7

3.1

3.8

7.9

6.1

MLIFE

Accumulate

401

446

1,636

786

888

26.3

26.7

31.0

36.3

12.9

11.1

1.3

1.2

10.1

10.8

2.4

2.1

Bharti Airtel

Accumulate

322

350

122,167

80,521

87,160

30.5

30.5

6.4

10.4

50.3

30.9

2.3

2.2

4.6

7.0

2.4

2.1

Idea Cellular

Neutral

114

37,675

22,087

23,927

26.6

27.7

2.9

3.9

38.9

29.1

2.7

2.5

6.9

8.4

2.3

2.1

Rcom

Neutral

64

13,241

21,087

22,067

31.8

31.9

2.6

4.0

24.5

16.0

0.4

0.4

1.5

2.2

2.4

2.2

13.1

13.5

79.0

90.8

17.2

14.9

3.7

3.1

23.7

22.8

1.3

1.1

Power
NTPC
Real Estate

Telecom

zOthers
Abbott India

Buy

1,354

1,634

2,877

1,926

2,152

Bajaj Electricals

Buy

184

217

1,832

3,450

3,929

4.5

7.4

10.0

15.5

18.4

11.9

2.4

2.1

13.0

17.4

0.5

0.5

Cera Sanitaryware

Accumulate

447

495

565

460

596

16.4

16.2

34.7

45.0

12.9

9.9

3.2

2.4

27.7

27.8

1.3

1.0

Cravatex

Buy

355

545

92

272

308

7.2

7.3

37.5

45.4

9.5

7.8

2.3

1.8

23.7

22.7

0.4

0.4

CRISIL

Neutral

945

6,634

982

1,136

34.3

34.3

34.3

40.0

27.5

23.6

12.5

10.0

50.9

46.9

6.3

5.3

Finolex Cables

Buy

48

61

738

2,268

2,559

9.5

10.0

9.0

10.1

5.4

4.8

0.8

0.7

14.8

14.6

0.3

0.2

Force Motors

Buy

400

550

521

2,027

2,299

4.6

5.1

35.3

50.0

11.3

8.0

0.5

0.4

3.9

5.3

0.1

0.1

Goodyear India

Accumulate

281

304

648

1,559

1,676

7.1

7.4

27.5

30.5

10.2

9.2

1.6

1.5

16.9

16.7

0.2

0.2

Greenply Industries

Sell

380

309

917

1,925

2,235

10.6

10.9

29.6

44.1

12.9

8.6

2.1

1.7

16.8

21.0

0.8

0.6

Hitachi

Neutral

Honeywell Automation* Accumulate

129

356

905

1,025

4.8

6.0

7.7

12.4

16.9

10.5

1.6

1.4

9.9

14.4

0.5

0.4

2,515

2,842

2,223

2,117

2,491

8.1

7.8

140.5

157.9

17.9

15.9

2.7

2.3

16.3

15.8

1.0

0.8

Styrolution ABS India*

Buy

617

744

1,085

1,069

1,223

9.7

9.7

40.0

46.5

15.4

13.3

2.2

1.9

15.1

15.3

1.0

0.8

ITD Cementation

Buy

188

239

217

1,455

1,630

12.0

12.1

23.2

31.2

8.1

6.0

0.5

0.5

6.5

8.1

0.6

0.6

Jyothy Laboratories

Neutral

162

2,615

816

979

14.5

14.9

5.2

6.0

31.5

27.0

3.6

3.3

8.8

10.2

3.4

2.8

MCX

Buy

1,056

1,440

5,386

553

624

65.3

66.3

62.5

72.0

16.9

14.7

4.6

4.0

27.5

27.4

6.7

5.5

MRF

Buy

12,187

14,331

5,169

12,422

13,767

12.9

12.8 1,661.0 1,791.4

7.3

6.8

1.5

1.2

22.0

19.4

0.5

0.5

Page Industries

Neutral

3,387

3,778

856

1,047

19.1

19.6

101.2

127.3

33.5

26.6

17.2

12.7

58.5

54.9

4.5

3.7

Relaxo Footwears

Buy

626

887

751

989

1,148

10.7

11.7

41.8

55.5

15.0

11.3

3.4

2.6

25.5

26.3

0.9

0.8

Sintex Industries

Buy

56

79

1,755

4,751

5,189

16.3

16.6

13.6

15.8

4.1

3.6

0.6

0.5

12.9

13.2

0.7

0.6

Siyaram Silk Mills

Buy

281

332

263

1,048

1,157

11.3

12.0

58.7

66.5

4.8

4.2

0.8

0.7

18.9

18.3

0.5

0.5

S. Kumars Nationwide

Neutral

10

287

6,765

7,393

18.1

18.0

6.4

7.5

1.5

1.3

0.1

0.1

6.1

6.7

0.6

0.6

SpiceJet

Buy

34

43

1,635

5,720

6,599

5.3

6.8

3.6

5.4

9.4

6.3

13.6

4.3

0.4

0.3

TAJ GVK

Buy

66

108

412

300

319

35.8

36.2

7.9

9.1

8.3

7.2

1.1

1.0

13.9

14.4

1.7

1.4

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
March 07, 2013

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

Sales ( cr )

OPM(%)

EPS ( )

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

PER(x)
FY13E

P/BV(x)

RoE(%)

EV/Sales(x)

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

0.7

0.7

15.7

14.7

0.3

0.2

17.5

19.1

0.8

0.7

zOthers
Tata Sponge Iron

Buy

309

379

476

782

818

16.5

17.0

61.8

65.4

5.0

4.7

TTK Healthcare

Buy

468

655

364

393

439

5.9

6.7

21.1

26.7

22.2

17.6

TVS Srichakra

Buy

United Spirits

Neutral

Vesuvius India

Accumulate

204

276

157

1,461

1,591

5.6

7.1

6.9

39.4

29.6

5.2

1.2

1.0

3.8

20.6

0.3

0.3

1,859

24,315

10,473

11,939

15.0

15.8

30.4

56.9

61.2

32.7

4.7

3.0

10.8

12.3

3.0

2.3

324

355

657

591

623

17.5

17.2

29.0

29.6

11.2

10.9

1.7

1.5

16.0

14.5

0.9

0.8

Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on March 06, 2013

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
March 07, 2013

www.angelbroking.com

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