Department of Civil Engineering

Faculty of Engineering & Technology
University of Ilorin
Ilorin, Nigeria
FINAL YEAR PROJECT PROPOSALS
Students:
Atoyebi, T.R (2013)
Akintayo, A.H (2013)
Taiwo, V.O (2013)
Olaewe, SO (2013)
Afodun, M.M (2012)
Ameen, H.H (2012)
Wusu, M.O (2012)
Supervisor:
Dr Olayinka Okeola


APPROVED FINAL YEAR PROJECT PROPOSAL



By


Titilayo Ruth ATOYEBI
(09/30GB037)



DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL ENGINEERING
UNIVERSITY OF ILORIN
ILORIN, NIGERIA





Project Supervisor: Dr. Olayinka Okeola



December 2013

Final Year Project Proposal Department of Civil Engineering Atoyebi Titilayo | Page 1
FREQUENCY ANALYSIS OF MAXIMUM DAILY RAINFALL FOR SELECTED TOWNS
IN NORTH-CENTRAL NIGERIA
By
ATOYEBI, T. R.
Department of Civil Engineering, University of Ilorin, Ilorin, Nigeria
1.0 INTRODUCTION
Frequency Analysis is a statistical method of prediction. It consists of studying past events and
process characteristics to define the probabilities of future occurrences. This prediction is based on
fitting the act of probability to the empirical frequencies of past observation. Maximum rainfall
predictions are often used to estimate peak flood discharges into drainage channels and on
watersheds. In the design of hydraulic structures, an initial step is to determine the peak discharge
which a particular culvert, channel, dam spillway, or bridge opening must safely allow.
The need for accurate rainfall predictions is readily apparent when considering the many benefits
such information would provide for river control, reservoir operations, forestry interests, flashflood
monitoring, etc. The accuracy of estimated flood peaks depends on the accuracy of extreme rainfall
values being determined for any given geographical location with a specified frequency of occurrence
or return period.
Frequency analysis of rain helps to predict the characteristics in terms of quantities, return period,
and response time of the watershed. The analysis is used to quantify the extent of flooding and to
take decisions necessary for storm-water drainage (size of storm network, discharge time) to mitigate
the impact of these events generally on the urban map.
Rainfall frequency analysis are used as references for design, regulatory and hydrologic applications.
The periodic updating of these studies are essential when additional data and new technology
become available (MacVicar, 1981;Pathak, 2001). Subsequently this study will attempt to undertake
rainfall frequency analysis of two states capital in north-central Nigeria.
2.0 AIM AND OBJECTIVES
This project aims at providing empirical model for forecasting maximum rainfall in Ilorin and Lokoja
towns. The objective is to achieve this empirical prediction model through statistical analysis of
existing rainfall data which would constitute a predictive input for engineering designs for such as
flood control and its related hydraulic structures.
3.0 SCOPE AND LIMITATION OF STUDY
This study will only cover the towns of Lokoja in Kogi state and Ilorin in Kwara State. Both towns are
in the north-central Nigeria and are the state capitals. Analysis will be carried out to establish the
Intesity-Duration-Frequecy (IDF) relationship for the two towns.

Final Year Project Proposal Department of Civil Engineering Atoyebi Titilayo | Page 2
4.0 LITERATURE REVIEW
Time series of daily rainfall records are often required as input for water resources projects. The
availability of such records is often constrained by economic, technical and personnel factors. As an
alternative, Haan et al., (1976) developed a first-order Markov chain rainfall model and also used
probability matrices to simulate rainfall which was applied on seven rainfall stations. The simulated
rainfall was compared with actual rainfall. The results of the comparisons indicated the model to be
generating annual rainfall forecast.
Stern, 1980a; Stern, 1980b and Jackson, 1981 reported that Markov chain models of various orders
are adequate for describing the occurrence of daily rainfall in Nigeria. Jimoh and Webster (1996)
however, showed that the order 1 Markov model is sufficient for representing the occurrence of daily
rainfall in the country as whole but not representing regional cases. This observation was based upon
the ability of the model to reproduce the characteristics of the observed series, rather than
formalized statistical tests. However, a comparison of the Gumbel, Log-Pearson III and Log-Gumbel
for analysis of rainfall-duration-Frequency reveals that Gumbel is more reliable and easy to work with
for regional analysis (Kerr et al., 1970).
Kerr et al., (1970) carried out analysis using the three aforementioned distribution methods and
observed that when the largest values from the annual series are more than 40 percent greater than
the next largest value in the series, the log-Gumbel curve may fit the data best, but the extrapolation
curve may become so concave upward that it loses all significance. The log-Pearson III curve also
becomes highly concave upward. The Gumbel line,in trying to fit all the points, does not fit any very
well, but does give the most believable extrapolation.
Regional rainfall analysis research results by Oyebande (1982) in deriving intensity-duration-
frequency (IDF) relationships have been found useful and they are in line with the objective of this
study. In most cases, the choice between the Gumbel and log-Pearson III is very difficult and in many
of these cases there is little difference between the two distributions (Kerr et al., 1970).The log-
Pearson III distribution requires log-transformed data and a third statistical moment and has not
proved to be as easy a tool to work with as the Gumbel distribution which plots as a straight line on
extreme value paper. Therefore, the Gumbel distribution is the choice distribution to use in
approximating the distribution of maximum rainfall in this study.
The approach by Oyebande (1982) assumes that a sample of rainfall in a region or zone is sufficiently
varied to represent the population of a long period. The present knowledge of the storm
characteristics in Nigeria indicates that the showers which account for most of the intense falls are
highly localized and further concluded that the Gumbel EV-1 is sufficiently skewed to warrant the use
of the maximum likelihood method to obtain the final estimates. Fitting of model is also of
importance in the use of models where limited observed data are available for parameter
identification. Fitting of the model parameters can be achieved using mathematical functions. For
example, Coe and Stern (1982) and Zucchini and Adamson (1984) used Fourier functions to smooth

Final Year Project Proposal Department of Civil Engineering Atoyebi Titilayo | Page 3
the model parameters at some stations in Africa. Although Jimoh and Webster (1996) reported that
the sequences of wet and dry days generated with the unfitted model parameters are similar to the
observed sequences, the ability of these unfitted parameters to reproduce the characteristics of the
historical sequence has not previously been identified. Before finally accepting the Gumbel
distribution, this study will utilize similar approach by fitting the model. Its assumption of a fixed
skewness coefficient will be investigated from the annual series of the stations by plotting the
probability distribution line. Points falling outside of the line are deviations from the theoretical
model while the points on the line comply strongly with the empirical model.
5.0 STUDY AREA
Ilorin, Kwara State
Ilorin is the capital of Kwara State in the north central region of Nigeria. It is approximately on
longitude 4
°
35’E and latitude 8°30’N (Federal Republic of Nigeria, 2013). It has an estimated area of
50.2km
2
and a population of 847,582 by 2006 census. Ilorin has an annual rainfall range of 1000mm
to 1500mm and average maximum temperatures between 30⁰C and 35⁰C (Kwara State Government,
2013). See figure 1 for map of Nigeria showing Ilorin, Kwara State.
The city is populated by Yoruba, Hausa, Nupe, Baruba, other Nigerians and foreign nationals.
Economy of Ilorin is progressing forward with the establishment of bank branches and improved
banking services. Many small-scale enterprises are working with the banks in opening business. Ilorin
has a number of manufacturing companies e.g. Global Soap & Detergents, Lubcon and Tuyi
Pharmaceuticals. It is also a home to higher institutions like University of Ilorin, Kwara State
University, School of Nursing, College of Education, Kwara State Polytechnic and few more others.
(Kwara State Government, 2013)

Lokoja, Kogi State
Lokoja is the capital city of Kogi State in central Nigeria. Kogi state lies on latitude 7.49
o
N and
longitude 6.45
o
E and bounded by the Niger in the north Kwara State in the west. Lokoja was the
capital of the British Northern Nigeria Protectorate and remained a convenient administrative town
for the British colonial government after the amalgamation of Northern and Southern Nigeria in 1914
(Kogi State Government, 2013). See figure 1 for map of Nigeria showing Lokoja, Kogi State.
Lokoja is also a Local Government Area in Kogi State. It has an area of 3180 km² and a population of
195,261 at the 2006 census. Lokoja has average maximum temperature between 27
o
C and 32
o
C.
There are three main ethnic groups and languages in Kogi: Igala, Ebira, and Okun (part of Yoruba)
with other minorities like Bassa, a small fraction of Nupe mainly in Lokoja, Gwari, Kakanda, Oworo
people (similar to Yoruba), ogorimagongo and the Eggan community under Lokoja Local Government.
It is a trade center for its agricultural region because it sits at the confluence of the Niger and Benue
rivers, and is close to the new federal capital of Nigeria in Abuja. It is also home to Kogi State
Polytechnic, Kogi State University and Federal College of Education in close-by towns (Kogi State
Government, 2013).

Final Year Project Proposal Department of Civil Engineering Atoyebi Titilayo | Page 4



Figure 1: Study Areas; Ilorin and Lokoja


Final Year Project Proposal Department of Civil Engineering Atoyebi Titilayo | Page 5
6.0 METHODOLOGY
The procedural approach that will be used to execute this study is as outlined in Figure 2

Figure 2: Summarized methodology
6.1 Rainfall Data Collection
The methods generally used for data collection and compilation of precipitation data may vary among
different agencies, however, the primary types of rainfall data in the region are daily measurements
and rainfall intensity (depths accumulated at various times) data.
Rainfall data will be sourced from Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET) in Oshodi, Lagos. The
actual method used for data collection at each station will be of interest to this study in determining
the reliability and accuracy of the data.
6.2 Preparation of Data and Quality Checks
Depending on the level of information available, missing data will be checked for continuity and
consistency against possible causes like;
 Damaged or faulty rain gauge during a period
 Change of gauge type
 Multiple use or change of observers
 Change of gauge location
 Remarkable change in the neighborhood of the station
For adequacy, the data will be checked to ensure the minimum number of rain gauges required to
achieve a desired level of accuracy is satisfied. This will be done by coefficient of variation approach
and will be discussed further if the data source is found to have enough information to do the
adequacy check.
Obtain relevant
Data
• Rainfall Data
Collection
• Preparation of Data
and Quality Checks
Analyse the
Data
• EV-I (Gumbel) Distribution
Analysis
• Probability Distribution Plots
• Rainfall Intensity-Duration-
Frequency Analysis
Develop
a
forecast
model
• Graphical
representaion of
outcomes
• Findings applicability
and limitations

Final Year Project Proposal Department of Civil Engineering Atoyebi Titilayo | Page 6
6.3 Gumbel Distribution (Extreme Value Type I)
If M
1
, M
2
…M
n
be a set of daily rainfall and let x = max(M
i
) be the maximum for the year. If M
i
is
independent and identically distributed, then for large n, x has an extreme value or Gumbel
distribution represented as:
() [ (

)]

Define a reduced variable y such that

() [()]
[(())] [( )] (

)

[(

)]

[(

)]
Now for any return period T, the frequency factor

can be obtained; hence rainfall depth

can be
computed from equation (Ibrahim, 2012):

{ [ (

)]}

{ [ (

)]}
Comparing this equation to the form

Hence,

{ [ (

)]}




Final Year Project Proposal Department of Civil Engineering Atoyebi Titilayo | Page 7
6.4 Probability Plot for Extreme Value Type I(EV-I) Rainfall Data
Probability plot is a graphical tool to assess whether or not the data fits a particular distribution. The
data will be fitted against a theoretical distribution for EV-I in such a way that the points should form
approximately a straight line. This way the distribution function will be linearized. The Gringorten
formula will be used as it applies more accurately for EV-I distributions (Shabri, 2002).
If n is the total number of values to be plotted and i is the rank of a value in a list ordered by
descending magnitude, the probability of the ith largest value, x
i
, for large n, is shown in Table 1
Table 1: Plotting position formulas
Proponent Formula a Parent Distribution
Weibull (1939)

0 All distributions
Beard (1943)




0.3175 All distributions
APL

0.35
Used with Probability
Weighted Moments
Method (PWM)
Blom (1958)




0.375 Normal Distributions
Cunnane (1977)




0.40
GEV and PIII
distributions
Gringorten (1963)




0.44
Exponential, EV1 and
GEV distributions
Hazen (1914)

0.50
Extreme Value
distributions
Nguyen et. al (1989)


PIII distribution
Source: Shabri, 2002
Departures from the straight line will indicate departure from the theoretical distribution
The following steps will be taken to come up with the probability plot
 Sort the data from largest to smallest
 Assign plotting position using Gringorten formula(

) ()

 Calculate reduced variable

[( ())]
 Plot sorted data against

 If the data falls on a straight line, the data complies with the EV-I distribution


Final Year Project Proposal Department of Civil Engineering Atoyebi Titilayo | Page 8
6.5 Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) Analysis
When local rainfall data are available, IDF curves can be developed using frequency analysis (Ibrahim,
2012)
Steps for IDF analysis are:
1. Select a design storm duration D, say D=24 hours.
2. Collect the annual maximum rainfall depth of the selected duration from n years of
historic data.
3. Determine the probability distribution of the D-hr annual maximum rainfall. The mean and
standard deviation of the D-hr annual maximum rainfall are estimated.
4. Calculate the D-hrT-yr design storm depth X
T
by using the following frequency factor
equation:

where , and K
T
are mean, standard deviation and frequency factor, respectively. The
frequency factor K
T
is distribution-specific and solved for in the Extreme Value distribution
in the next section.
5. Calculate the average intensity

()

and repeat Steps 1 through 4 for various design storm durations.
6. Construct the IDF curves.


Figure 3: Sample of intensity-duration-frequency curves

Final Year Project Proposal Department of Civil Engineering Atoyebi Titilayo | Page 9
7.0 EXPECTED RESULT
The target outcome of this project is to have a model that is capable of predicting maximum rainfall
to expect in the future. This empirical model is expected to provide basic design input parameters for
future hydraulic structures design in the case study area.
7.1 Project Deliverables
On completion of the project, the following will be submitted as project deliverables to the project
supervisor/department for documentation purpose
1. Printed Project Document
2. Soft Copy of Project Document in Compact Disc

8.0 PROJECT COST
The estimated budget for the duration of the project is N59,500 (Fifty-nine thousand and Five
Hundred Naira) and breakdown is shown in Table 2.
Table2: Project Cost Details


9.0 PROJECT TIME FRAME

9.1 Project Work Breakdown Structure
The estimated duration of this project is 6 months; 12 weeks in the Harmattan Semester and 12
weeks in the Rain Semester. In every project, early planning and proper scheduling of activities,
resources and required time frame is important to the success of the project. Work Breakdown
Structure (WBS) adopted in this project and activity codes are assigned to tasks as per the category
and schedule they fall into.
Table 3 shows the WBS which includes milestones attached to significant stages. This is developed for
effective management of progress and tracking performance. It will also help in monitoring
compliance to the proposed project methodology.
S/No. Item Description Cost (N)
1 Printing of Literature Materials 3,500.00
2 Internet Subscription (6 months) 36,000.00
3 Final Project Documentation 12,000.00
4 Logistics (Transportation/Telecommunication) 5,000.00
5 Miscellaneous Expenses 3,000.00
Total 59,500.00

Final Year Project Proposal Department of Civil Engineering Atoyebi Titilayo | Page 10
Table3: Project Work Breakdown Structure




Activity
Code
Activity Description Resources Duration
in weeks
Milestones
H Harmattan Semester 12 weeks
H1 Project Initiation 2 weeks
H1.1 Project Topic Selection AT, DO 1 Day
H1.2 Refinement of Project Topic with Supervisor AT 1 Days
H1.3 Refinement of Project Scope of Work with Supervisor AT, DO 5 Days
H1.4 Identify Specific Project Needs AT 3 Days
H2 Project Planning 10 weeks
H2.1 Identify and Study Existing Literature References AT 5 weeks
H2.2 Develop Project proposal AT 4 weeks Milestone 1
H2.3 Review first draft of Project Proposal with Supervisor AT, DO 2 weeks
H2.4 Source for & Obtain hydrological data AT 3 weeks Milestone 2
H2.5 Review second draft of Project Proposal with Supervisor AT, DO 2 weeks
H2.6 Issue Final Version of Project Proposal AT 1 Day Milestone 3
R Rain Semester 12 weeks
R1 Project Execution 10 weeks
R1.1 Collation of hydrological (rainfall) data AT 1 week
R1.2 Further (detailed) literature Review AT 3 weeks
R1.3 Calculations and Empirical forecast model development AT 6 weeks Milestone 4
R1.4 Review of empirical model with Supervisor AT, DO 1 week
R1.5 Analysis/Interpretation of Results AT 2 weeks Milestone 5
R1.6 Review of Results with Supervisor AT, DO 1 week
R1.7 Incorporation of comments from review exercise AT 1 week
R2 Project Close-Out 2 weeks
R2.1 Review Final Draft of Report with Supervisor AT, DO 1 week
R2.2 Print and Document Final Report AT 4 Days
R2.3 Issue Final Project Report AT 1 Day Milestone 6
AT = Atoyebi T. R.
DO = Dr. O.G. Okeola

Final Year Project Proposal Department of Civil Engineering Atoyebi Titilayo | Page 11

Final Year Project Proposal Department of Civil Engineering Atoyebi Titilayo | Page 12
10.0 REFERENCES
Bergaoui, M. (2010) Analysis of maximum daily rainfalls, Saida Manoubia Station, Tunis Paper
delivered at International Workshop for Advances in Statistical Hydrology, Taormina, ItalyMay 23-25,
2010
Coe R. and Stern R.D (1982) Fitting models to daily rainfall data. Journal of Applied Meteorology, 21,
pp. 1024–1031
Federal Republic of Nigeria (2013) North Central States: Kwara State
http://www.nigeria.gov.ng (Accessed Nov 1, 2013)
Haan C.T, Allen D.M, Street J.O (1976) A Markov chain model of daily rainfall, Water Resour. Res., 12
(3), pp. 443–449
Ibrahim H.E., (2012) Developing rainfall Intensity–Duration–Frequency relationship for two regions in
Saudi Arabia. Journal of King Saud University - Engineering Sciences, Volume 24, Issue 2, Pages 131-
140, ISSN 1018-3639
Jackson, I.J. (1981) Dependence of wet and dry days in the tropics. Arch. Met. Geophy. Biokl., Ser.B.,
29, pp. 167–179
Jimoh, O.D. and Webster,P.(1996) Optimum order of Markov chain for daily rainfall in Nigeria. J.
Hydrol., 185, pp. 45–69
Kerr, R. L., McGinnis, D. F., Reich,B. M. and Rachford, T. M. (1970) Analysis of Rainfall-Duration-
Frequency for Pennsylvania, Institute for Research on Land and Water Resources. Pennsylvania State
University, Pennsylvania, USA.
Kwara State Government (2013) http://www.kwarastate.gov.ng (Accessed Nov 1, 2013)
Kogi State Government (2013) http://www.kogistate.org/ (Accessed Dec 20, 2013)
Macvicar, T.K. (1981) Frequency analysis of rainfall maximums for central and South-Florida,
Technical Publication: 81-3. South Florida Water Management District, Florida.
Oyebande, L. (1982) Deriving rainfall intensity-duration-frequency relationships and estimates for
regions with inadequate data, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 27:3, 353-367
Pathak, C. S. (2001) Frequency analysis of daily rainfall maxima for central and South-Florida,
Technical Publication: EMA 390. South Florida Water Management District, Florida.
Shabri A., (2002) A comparison of plotting formulas for the Pearson type III distribution, Jurnal
Teknologi, 36(C) Jun. 2002: 61–74, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, Malaysia

Final Year Project Proposal Department of Civil Engineering Atoyebi Titilayo | Page 13
Stern R.D (1980a) Analysis of daily rainfall at Samaru, Nigeria, using a simple two-part model. Arch.
Met. Geophy. Biokl. Ser. B., 28, pp. 123–135
Stern R.D (1980b) The calculation of probability distribution for models of daily precipitation Arch.
Met. Geophy. Biokl. Ser. B., 28, pp. 137–147
Woolhiser, D. A. and Pegram, G. G. S. (1979) Maximum likelihood estimation of Fourier coefficients to
describe seasonal variations of parameters in stochastic daily precipitation models J. Appl.
Meterology, 18, 34-42
Zucchini, W. and Adamson, P.T. (1984) The occurrence and severity of drought in South Africa. Water
Commission Report No. 92/1/84, Water Research Commission, Pretoria, South Africa.

APPROVED FINAL YEAR PROJECT PROPOSAL

By

Ademola Hammed AKINTAYO
(09/30GB025)


Department of Civil Engineering
University of Ilorin
Ilorin, Nigeria



Project Supervisor: Dr. O.G. Okeola



December 2013

F i n a l Y e a r P r o j e c t P r o p o s a l ( 2 0 1 3 ) A . H . A K I N T A Y O ( 0 9 / 3 0 G B 0 2 5 )

Page 2
IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON ILORIN MUNICIPAL WATER SUPPLY
By
A.H. AKINTAYO
Department of Civil Engineering, University of Ilorin, Ilorin, Nigeria.

1.0 INTRODUCTION
The effects of climate and climate change on the world’s natural resources is a study that has
occupied experts in the fields of science, engineering, physical planning as well as geology for years.
Water being the most important resource to man, and being abundant as well as scarce poses a great
challenge to specialists on how to proffer solution to problems arising from its availability. Studies
reveal that water occupies about 70% of the total earth’s surface. About 97% of the total amount of
water is salt water leaving only 3% of fresh water which is the useful form for virtually all human
activities. Two-third of this remaining 3% is known to be frozen in glaciers on polar ice caps and only a
small fraction is present above ground and in the atmosphere.
Fresh water is a renewable resource, yet the world’s supply of clean and fresh water is steadily
decreasing (Olanrewaju, 2010). Contrarily, the demand for potable water has increased and still
increasing due to the rapid increase in the world’s population and climatic factors. As a result, the
study of the effect of climate change on water supply to municipalities cannot be over-emphasized.
Climate change is ultimately caused by global warming that is also caused by the emission of green
house gases due to the activities of man. Rapidly rising green house gases, enhanced land and sea
temperatures, increased frequency and magnitude of extreme events pose enormous risk to various
economic activities and fresh water availability (Okechukwu et al., 2013). In recent years, human-
induced impacts on global warming associated with green house gases have received much attention
in the scientific research community (IPCC, 2001).
Climate model projections summarized by the IPCC indicate that average global surface temperature
will likely rise a further 1.1°C to 6.4°C (Rahman, 2008). Climate change will lead to rising in
temperatures and changes in precipitation. Under these conditions, the rivers may experience a range
of impacts including lower water levels and shrinking surface area. The effects of warmer water also
include decreased oxygen-carrying capacity, decreased volume of water (because of higher
evaporation rates), and increased concentration of nutrients and pollutants because of reduction in
volume of water for diluting chemical inputs (Makanjuola et al., 2010).
Increase in the concentration of green house gases reduce the efficiency with which the earth’s
surface radiates to space. It results in an increased absorption of the ongoing infrared radiation by the
atmosphere, with this radiation re-emitted at higher altitudes and lower temperatures (Makanjuola
et al., 2010).

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This study will analyze the effects of climate change on Ilorin municipal water supply and give an
insight to the trend at which the changes in the climatology of the area occur as it affects water
supply.
2.0 AIM AND OBJECTIVES
This study is aimed at analyzing the impacts of climate change in Ilorin municipal water supply. This
will enable adequate scrutiny of the trend of variation in water resources as a result of climate change
and its effects in order to plan a better management and more effective supply system to the Ilorin
municipality now and in the future. The following are the specific objectives of the study:
(i) To be able to associate the trend in physical variation in the sources of water to the change
of climatic conditions over the years
(ii) To gather useful data and information which will be used to project future climate
condition as it affects water supply taking into consideration the certainties and the
uncertainties in the trend
(iii) To be able to plan for effective water distribution system in the future that will be
adequate for the water resources of the time
(iv) To be able to suggest a suitable storage system for the sustainability of the available water
for supply
3.0 STUDY AREA
Ilorin is the largest city and the official capital of Kwara State, Nigeria located on latitude 8
o
24’N and
8
o
36’N and longitude 4
o
10’E and 4
o
36’E with an area of about 100Km
2
(Ajadi et al., 2011). It is
situated at a strategic point between the densely populated south-western and the sparsely
populated middle belt of Nigeria. Ilorin is located in traditional zone between the deciduous
woodland of the south and dry savanna of North of Nigeria (Ajadi et al., 2011). The political economy
of Kwara State can be traced to 1967 when it was created. Since then Ilorin has undergone various
developmental efforts, mostly initiated by the federal government given the nature of the Nigerian
state, a centralized federal system where all development policies and programmes originate from
the center. Despite its strategic location as the gateway between the southern and northern parts of
the country, there are few industries in Kwara State. Ilorin has a good network of roads, rail and air
transportation facilities linking it with Nigeria’s other industrial and commercial centers.
The climate of Ilorin is characterized by both wet and dry seasons. The temperature of Ilorin ranges
from 33
o
C to 34
o
C from November to January while from February to April; the value ranges between
34
o
C to 53
o
C (Ilorin Atlas, 1982). The mean monthly temperatures are very high varying from 25
o
C to
28.9
0
C. The diurnal range of temperature is also high in the area. The total annual rainfall in the area
is about 1200mm. The diurnal regime of moderate rain in the area shows clear night time rainfall
maximum. Relative humidity at Ilorin in the wet season is between 75 to 80% while in the dry season
it is about 65%. The day time is sunny. The sun shines brightly for about 6.5 to 7.7 hours daily from
November to May (Ajadi, 2011). The geology of the Ilorin consists of Precambrian basement complex
rock. The elevation on the western side varies from 273m to 333m above sea level while on the

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Eastern side it varies from 273m to 364m. Ilorin is majorly drained by Asa River which flows in a
south-north direction (Ajadi, 2011). Figure 1 shows the location of Ilorin on the map of Kwara State
and Nigeria.



Figure 1: Map of Nigeria showing Kwara State and Ilorin
Source: Google map 2013

4.0 LITERATURE REVIEW
Climate change models are not predictions of the future, rather the projections of how the future
global and local climates may evolve and how these scenarios could affect such things as local water
resources. It is therefore important that planners, investors and decision-makers take into account
the potential effects of climate change on the water resources and adopt strategies that ensure the
long-term sustainability of the water supplies and the local resources (Mukheibir, 2007).
Climate variability can be thought of as the way climate variables (such as temperature and
precipitation) depart from some average state, either above or below the average value. Although
daily weather data depart from the climatic mean, the climate is considered to be stable if the long-
term average does not significantly change. On the other hand, climate change can be defined as a
trend in one or more climatic variables characterized by a fairly smooth continuous increase or
decrease in the average value during the period of record (Mukheibir, 2007).
The potential hydrological impacts of climate change estimated by changing the climate inputs to
hydrological models are studied by a number of researchers including (Mukheibir, 2007): Singh and
Kumar (1997), Roads et al (1996), Miller and Russell (1992), Kavvas et al (2006), Arora and Boer
(2001). All these assessments are nearly universal in suggesting that changes to the hydrology on the

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landscape will mainly follow changes to precipitation patterns (Muttuah and Wurbs, 2002).
Stimulated changes in precipitation, run off and soil moisture may be used directly to estimate some
hydrological aspects of climate change. Miller and Russell (1992) for example determined the change
in annual run-off due to increase green house gases (GHG) in concentration for thirty-three (33) major
river basins around the world using the output from Giddard Institute of Space Studies and found that
the majority of river basins experienced an increase in mean annual unrouted run off (Makanjuola et
al., 2010). Climate change will greatly complicate the design, operation and management of water use
systems. On the other hand, climate change that increases overall water availability could either be
beneficial or could increase the risk of pollution (Salami and Okeola, 2012).
Water planning and management relies on the assumption that the future climate will be the same as
the historical trends and hence all water supply systems are designed with this assumption in mind.
For example, dams are sized using available information on existing flows in rivers and historical
rainfall figures. However, the complicating effect of climate change for water supply systems is the
increase in uncertainty which greatly complicates rational water resource planning (Mukheibir, 2007).
The issue of access to water is not always determined by scarcity. This is often cited as the reason, but
poor access to water could also be due to political or economic policies. People who do not have
access to water are mostly the marginalized-geographically, economically and socially. The amount
paid for water is usually a very small fraction of the household’s disposable income. However, social
or political reasons may require that pricing of water for low consumers should be subsidized. A
commonly observed approach in developing countries is to make use of a rising block tariff, where
the first tier of 6-8m
3
/person/month is subsidized or free and the subsequent tiers have increasing
higher rates (Mukheibir, 2007).
Beyond scarcity and access, water security is also about risk and vulnerability. One key such risk is
that of projected climate change impacts. Climate change poses a threat to water security to many of
the poorest countries and households. Of course, this threat is not limited to poor countries; wealthy
countries will also experience the impact of changing climate and weather patterns. However, it is
poor people and countries which lack the financial resources to reduce the risk through firstly
preventative action, and secondly through adaptation to impacts or restoration if damage is inflected
by extreme weather events (Mukheibir, 2007).
Twort et al, (1974) observed that the accurate measurement of consumption is often difficult because
standards of supply and maintenance may vary widely throughout the world. Reported losses may
vary from 5% to 55% of the supply; meters may not register correctly; supplies may be intermittent;
etc. the population actually receiving a supply may not be accurately known in rural areas and census
figures may be of doubtful validity and frequently out of date. These observations are relevant to the
Nigeria of today as they are mostly occurring in developing countries, a category which the country
presently belongs.
The habits of different population groups with respect to water use were studied in The Netherlands.
Four compared factors were age, income level, household size and region of the country. The figures

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from the study prove that even with detailed statistics available, conclusions about global trends may
be difficult (Trifunovic, 2006).
Temperature, rainfall, wind, relative humidity and evaporation data are made over time and
therefore are referred to as time series data, which is defined as a sequence of observations that
varies over time. The time series is made up of four components known as seasonal, trend, cyclical
and irregular. Trend is defined as the general movement of a series over an extended period of time.
It can also be described as the long term change in the dependent variable over a long period of time
(Rahman, 2008). Trend is determined by the relationship between two variables (i.e. temperature,
rainfall, relative humidity, wind speed and evaporation versus time).

5.0 METHODOLOGY
The methodology that would be employed for this work involves the following steps:
5.1 Collection of Data
This is the collection of some meteorological data which include precipitation, relative humidity, wind
speed, maximum temperature, minimum temperature and evaporation for analysis and projection
purpose.
5.2 Data Analysis
The meteorological data collected will be subjected to various analyses viz; statistical (mean, median,
mode, skewness, variance and standard deviation); linear regression, Mann Kendall and Reduction
pattern.
5.3 Data Estimation
Data estimation is aimed at studying the variation in climate and water supply trend or pattern
leading to conclusion as regard the objectives of the study. The following are the analyses that will be
carried out;
Arithmetic Mean ()
The mean or alternatively, the arithmetic mean for a set of data is the sum of the observations
divided by the number of observations. It is given as;

Equation 1
where = the mean,

are individual values of meteorological variables
= total number of variables
Standard Deviation ()
The standard deviation of a set of numbers

is denoted by or and is defined by


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Equation 2

where represents the deviations of each of the numbers

from the mean and is the standard
deviation. Thus s is the root mean square (RMS) of the deviations from the mean, or, as it is
sometimes called, the root-mean-square deviation.




Variance (
2
)
The variance of a set of data is defined as the square of the standard deviation and is thus given by

in equation (2)

2

Equation 3
where
2
= variance

= the mean

= number of variables

Skewness ()
Skewness is a measure of the degree of asymmetry, or departure from symmetry, of a distribution
with respect to its mean. It is given as;
=

Equation 4
where = mean
= standard deviation
= number of data
Coefficient of Correlation ()
The coefficient of correlation determines the strength of linear relationship between two variables. It
always takes a value between -1 and +1. It is given as;


Equation 5
where x = a value of an independent (time) variable
y = a value of a dependent (meteorological) variable
= Cumulative mean of x
= Cumulative mean of y
r = Correlation
A significance test follows the determination of the coefficient of correlation. In testing the
significance of the correlation coefficient, null (H
0
) and alternative (H
1
) hypothesis are considered.

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Hypothesis:

Equation 5a

where is the population correlation coefficient.
The appropriate test statistics for testing the above hypothesis is

Equation 5b
The -value which is used to determine the strength of linear relationship between the variables and
time and thus establishing the trend will then be determined. -values are calculated in the following
manner;
-value Equation 5c
Linear Regression (), Equation 6
where = the observation on the dependent variable (such as temperature, precipitation, etc.)
= the observation on the independent variable (i.e. time)
= the intercept of the line on the vertical axis
= the slope of the line.
Reduction pattern
Reduction is used to determine the trend, fluctuations or deviation from a determined average of a
particular variable. For instance, the reduction pattern of rainfall is obtained from;

Equation 7
where

= single rainfall variable

= obtained arithmetic mean of rainfall
Mann Kendall
Mann Kendall analysis is used to determine the trend of variables. This analysis will reflect the nature
of trend at which the meteorological variables follow (i.e. either a positive or a negative trend). It also
makes use of significance level test (Z test) and null hypothesis.

6.0 EXPECTED RESULT
At the end of this project, the variation in meteorological factors like precipitation and temperature
should be confidently determined. The determined variation should be able to give proper analysis to
project the future trend. This trend should, in return, give insight into more effective and sustainable
water supply system to the Ilorin municipality.




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7.0 BUDGET
The cost of resources that will be used to efficiently carry out this work is estimated in table 1 as
shown;

Table 1: Project Estimated Budget
S/N Activity Estimated Cost (Naira)
1 Acquisition of relevant textbooks 12,000
2 Internet facility 5,000
3 Transportation 7,000
4 Acquisition of data 20,000
5 Project Documentation 3,000
6 Miscellaneous 3,000
TOTAL 50,000


8.0 PROJECT SCHEDULE
8.1 Project WBS
This study is projected to take 32 weeks of completion. The work breakdown structure (WBS) is
shown in table 2 and is represented on the Gantt chart in figure 2.

Table 2: Project WBS
S/N Activity Duration (weeks) Start Date Finish Date
1 Preliminary study on project topic 2 10/21/2013 11/11/2013
2 Information gathering through internet sources and 5 11/14/2013 12/06/2013
relevant textbooks
3 Reading and studying relevant materials on project 4 11/18/2013 12/20/2013
topic
4 Writing of final year project proposal 3 12/23/2013 01/10/2014
5 Review of project proposal for second submission 1 01/13/2014 01/17/2014
6 Review of project proposal for final submission 2 01/20/2014 01/24/2014
7 Reconnaissance of Asa, Agba and Oyun Dams 4 01/27/2014 02/21/2014
8 Compilation and Computation of data 2 02/17/2014 03/14/2014

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S/N Activity Duration (weeks) Start Date Finish Date
9 Analysis of Data 5 03/17/2014 04/04/2014
10 Result Discussion and Conclusion 2 03/31/2014 04/11/2014
11 Project Documentation 2 04/14/2014 04/25/2014
TOTAL 32












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9.0 REFERENCES
Ajadi, B.S., Adeniyi A. and Afolabi, M. T. (2011) Impact of Climate on Urban Agriculture: Case Study of
Ilorin City, Nigeria. Global Journal of Human Social Science: Double Blind Peer Reviewed International
Research Journal, USA. Vol. 11, Issue 1.
Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2001) Climate Change 2001: Impacts,
Adaptations and Vulnerability. Cambridge University Press.
Makanjuola, O.R., Salami, A.W., Ayanshola, A.M., Aremu, S.A. and Yusuf, K.O. (2010) Impact of
Climate Change on Small Water Resources of Ilorin. Proceedings of the 2
nd
Annual Civil Engineering
Conference, University of Ilorin, Ilorin, Nigeria, 26-28 July 2010. Pg. 284-285.
Mukheibir, P. (2007) The Impact of Climate Change on Small Municipal Water Resource Management:
A case of Bredasdorp, South Africa. Energy Resource Centre, University of Cape Town. Pg 1-3.
Muttiah R.S. and Wurbs R.A. (2002) Modelling the Impacts of Climate Change on Water Supply
Reliabilities. A Journal of the International Water Resources Association (IWRA). Water International,
Vol. 27, Number 3. Pg. 407-419.
Okechukwu, M.E. (2013) Climate Change Trends and Indices: A case study of Owerri, Southeast
Nigeria. Proceedings of the Nigerian Association of Hydrological Sciences, 5th Annual National
Conference at University of Nigeria, Nsukka. Vol. 5, Pg. 435.
Olanrewaju, L.O. (2010) The Impact of Climate Change on Surface Water Surface: A case study of
Bauchi. A final year project, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Ilorin, Ilorin, Nigeria.

Rahman, S. (2008) Effect of Global Warming on Rainfall and Agriculture Production. A Research
Report of the Department of Operations Management and Business Statistics, College of Commerce
and Economics, Sultan Qaboos University.

Salami A.W. and Okeola O.G. (2012) Climate Change Impact on Water Resources and Yield Capacity of
Kampe Reservoir: Implication on Water and Food Security. Book of Readings: 3rd National Water
Conference 2012.
Trifunovic, N. (2006) Introduction to Urban Water Distribution. 1st edition. Taylor and
Francis/Balkema, Netherlands.
Twort, A.C., Hoather, R.C. and Law, F.M. (2000) Water Supply. 2nd edition. Edward Arnold Publishers
ltd., London.



APPROVED FINAL YEAR PROJECT PROPOSAL



BY

Victor Olumide TAIWO
(11/30GB115)


Department Of Civil Enginnering
University Of Ilorin
Ilorin, Nigeria




Project Supervisor: Dr. Olayinka Okeola




December 2013



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Final year project proposal V.O.Taiwo (11/30GB115) 2

STORM DATA ANALYSIS FOR DRAINAGE DESIGN
(A Case Study of Kwara and Niger States)

By
V. O.TAIWO
Department of Civil Engineering, University of Ilorin, Ilorin, Nigeria

1.0 Introduction
The vast development in the country has increased the percentage of impervious surface thus,
resulting in huge surface runoff that contributes to the flash flood occurrence in urban areas. In
order to prevent this hydrological problem, it is paramount that the regulators, planners and
designers of hydraulic structures particularly drainage system get reliable analyzed storm data.
Storm denotes a form of precipitation which comes in droplets. It comes in different forms
such as: rainfall, snowfall, hail and sleet. Rainfall is the type of storm that is common in this
part of the world and it will serve as basis for this study. In many part of the world rainfall and
runoff data are major tools use in the prediction of hydrological event occurrence such as flood
and in the design of hydraulic structures such as culvert, bridge and drainage system.
A storm drain is defined as that portion of the storm drainage system that receives runoff from
inlets and conveys the runoff to some point where it is then discharged into a channel, water
body or piped system. It consists of one or more pipes connecting one or more inlets. A storm
drain may be close-conduit, open-conduit, or some combination of the two. The purpose of
storm drain is to collect storm water runoff from the roadway and convey it to an outfall. The
analysis of storm data provides guidance for planning and design of pavement drainage
system.
The design and construction of hydraulic structures such as dam, urban drainage system and
management of water resources require an estimation of event of higher return period. In
several cases, the return period of interest exceeds usually the period of available records and
could not be extracted directly from the record data. Therefore, in current engineering
practices, the estimation of extreme rainfall is accomplished based on statistical frequency
analysis of maximum precipitation records where available sample data could be used to
estimate event magnitude corresponding to return period greater than or less than those of
the recorded events(Olofintoye, et al., 2009). The selection of appropriate model for analyzing
storm data depends mainly on the characteristics of available rainfall data at a particular site
and the land use characteristics. Hence, it is necessary to evaluate many available distributions
in order to find a suitable model that could provide accurate runoff estimate (Usman, 2012).
This project is to derive the design storms for the purpose of designing drainage structures
through analysis of rainfall data for Kwara and Ekiti States.

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Final year project proposal V.O.Taiwo (11/30GB115) 3

2.0 The Case Study
2.1 Kwara state
Kwara State is located in the central region of Nigeria (Fig1a). It is located in the forested
savanna and enjoys moderate dry and wet seasons with heavier rains falling in September and
October. Kwara State is situated between latitude 9 degrees, 25 minutes and 32 seconds North
(9
0
25

32
’’
N) and longitude 3 degrees, 30 minutes and 38 seconds East (3
0
30’ 38
’’
E). Kwara
state is bounded by Niger State in the North, Kogi State in the East, Oyo, Ekiti and Osun States
in the South and international boundary with the Republic of Benin in the west (Fig1b).The
state occupies about 36,825km
2
with a population figure of 2,356,040 people (NPC, 2006).
The primary ethnic group in Kwara state is Yoruba with significant Nupe, Fulani and Bariba
minorities. Agriculture is the main source of the economy and the principal cash crops are:
Cotton, Cocoa, Coffee, Kola nut, Tobacco, and Palm produce. Mineral resources in the state
are: Gold, Lime stone, Marble, Feldspar, and Granite Rocks. The State has nine institutions
which are: University of Ilorin, Kwara State University, Federal Polytechnic at Offa, Kwara
Polytechnic at Ilorin, College of Education at Oro, College of Education at Ilorin, School of
Health Technology at Offa, School of Nursing at Ilorin, Navy school and Aviation College
situated in Offa and Ilorin respectively.


Fig 1a: Map of Nigeria showing Kwara State.

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Final year project proposal V.O.Taiwo (11/30GB115) 4



Figure 1b: Map of Kwara State showing shared boundaries

2.2 Niger state
Niger State lies between the latitude three degrees, twenty minutes and zero second (3
0

20’00’’) East, longitude eight degrees(8
0
) and eleven degrees, three minutes and zero second
(11
0
.3’00’’) North. It is bordered to the North by Sokoto State, West by Kebbi State, and South
by Kogi and South-West by Kwara State. Kaduna and Federal Capital Territory border the State
to both North-East and South East respectively. The State has a common boundary with the
Republic of Benin along New Bussa, Agwara and Wushishi Local Government Areas. This has
given rise to common inter-border trade between the two countries.
National Population Census estimated the state population as 3,950,249 (NPC, 2006). Niger
State covers a total land area of about 76,363 square kilometers representing 8% of the total
land area of Nigeria. About 85% of the land is arable. Like most alluvial soils, the soil in Niger
State is the flood plain type and is characterized by considerable variations. The soil is of two
main types which could be used for agriculture and are rich in minerals for the manufacture of
various products.
About 85% of the State’s population are farmers, while the remaining 15% are engaged in
other vocations such as white collar jobs, manufacturing, business, production of crafts and
arts. Niger State experiences distinct dry and wet seasons with annual rainfall varying from
1,100mm in the Northern part of the State to 1,600mm in the southern parts. The maximum
temperature is recorded between March and June, while the minimum is usually between
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Final year project proposal V.O.Taiwo (11/30GB115) 5

December and January. The rainy season lasts for about 150 days in the Northern parts of
about 120 days in the Southern parts of the State.
A wide variety of mineral and material resources are known to be available in the State.
Therefore, whether the interest is agriculture or industry, Niger State has the capacity to
sustain it. This is why Nigerlites are collectively resolved that Nigeria’s strive for self-reliance
and sufficiency could be facilitated and rapidly realized in Niger State. The State has numerous
exportable commodities begging for patronage.
Niger State is the acclaimed “Power House” of the nation because it houses three hydro-
electric power stations. They are the Shiroro hydroelectric power station commissioned in June
1990 by president Ibrahim Babangida with initial capacity of 600 megawatts, the renowned
500MW Kanji generating plant and the Jebba hydro-electricity dam (http://www.nigerstate.gov.ng)



Fig 2: Map of Nigeria Showing Niger State





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Final year project proposal V.O.Taiwo (11/30GB115) 6

3.0 Aim and Objectives
The aim of this project is to analyze storm data for Kwara and Niger states while the specific
objectives are:
1. To establish a reliable relationship between rainfall and runoff.
2. To provide guidelines for the planning and design of drainage system through
computed discharge.
3. To identify short and long term strategies to contain extreme hydrological events.
4.0 Scope and Limitation
The study will analyze rainfall data for Kwara and Niger states. Both states are in the north
central region of the country. Analysis will be done to determine the design storm for the two
states.
5.0 Methodology
The methodology involves field and desk works. The field work is basically the collection of
storm data for Kwara and Niger states from Nigeria Meteorological Agency (NIMET) while the
desk work involves analysis of collected data using statistical and hydrological methods. Google
Earth software and topographic maps will be used to show location of different watersheds,
land use and also get important information about the area. The design of storm water
drainage system is based on the estimation of quantity of runoff. The application of these
methods is based on the hydrological data and available characteristics for particular water
shed. These methods are: Rational, Hydrograph and Runoff Curve Number Methods. All these
three methods would be adopted in this study. Intensity duration frequency (IDF) relationship
would be determined for 5, 10, 15 and 20 minutes duration.
1.0 Rational method
The Rational method is the most frequently use urban hydrology method. It is used to estimate
the peak instantaneous discharge from the watershed, and it is assumed that the peak runoff
rate is proportional to the peak intensity of rainfall multiplied by the contributing area. The
constant of proportionality is called “runoff coefficient”, is always lesser than unity.
Mathematically, rational formula is represented in equation 1 below.
(∑)
Where: Q = Peak runoff rate (m
3
/s), C= Runoff coefficient (dimensionless), I = Rain fall intensity
(mm/hour) and A = Drainage Area (m
2
).
The following assumptions are explicitly implied in the use of the Rational Formula (Jerome and
Arizona, 2004).
 The Rainfall intensity is constant with respect to time.
 The Rainfall intensity is constant with respect to space over the watershed drainage
area.
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Final year project proposal V.O.Taiwo (11/30GB115) 7

 The frequency distributions of the event rainfall and the peak runoff rate differ in mean
value but have the same variance (are parallel if plotted in probability space).
 The time of concentration of a basin is constant and is easily determined.
 Despite the natural temporal and special variability of abstractions from rainfall, the
percentage of event rainfall that is converted to runoff can be estimated reliably.
 The runoff coefficient is invariant, regardless of season of the year or depth or intensity
of rainfall.
2.0 The hydrograph method
For urban watersheds larger than about 500 acres (200 hectares) and smaller than about 2000
square miles (518,000 hectares) or where storage of significant character is involved, it is
recommended that the design storm runoff be developed by the unit hydrograph method. A
graph showing the discharge of flowing water with respect to time is a hydrograph. Hydrograph
integrates all the climatic and physiographic characteristics of a drainage basin as such
characteristics govern the relation between rainfall and runoff. The reflection of time-related
rainfall and flow as shown by a hydrograph is invaluable in understanding the processes that
determine runoff. In watershed work there are four types of hydrographs suitable for use
(FHWA Manual, 1979):
1 Natural hydrographs are those obtained directly from the flow records of a gauged
stream channel or conduit.
2 Synthetic hydrographs obtained through the use of watershed parameters and storm
characteristics to simulate a natural hydrograph.
3 A unit hydrograph is defined as a hydrograph of a direct runoff resulting from 1 inch
(25.4 mm) of effective rainfall generated uniformly over the basin area during a
specified period of time or duration.
4 A dimensionless hydrograph is one made to represent many unit hydrographs by using
the time to peak and the peak rates as basic units in plotting the hydrographs in ratios
of these units; sometimes this is called the "index hydrograph".
As defined above, the unit hydrograph can be used to develop the hydrograph of runoff for any
quantity of effective rainfall (Equation 2-5)
( ) Eqtn 2
(Depth of Flow /per unit Area)
∑ (

⁄ ) ()
(

)
Eqtn 3



× UH
T
Eqtn 4
% D.R.O


X 100 Eqtn 5
D.R.O = Direct Runoff
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Final year project proposal V.O.Taiwo (11/30GB115) 8

3.0 Runoff Curve Number Method
This method is simple to use and requires basic descriptive inputs that are converted to
numeric values for estimation of watershed direct-runoff volume. The curve number (CN)
method is widely used by engineers and hydrologists as a simple watershed model and as
runoff-estimating component in more complex watershed models. The method depends on
using measured watershed runoff and rainfall data to develop a curve number value that
reflects the value that should be developed from measured data. The maximum retention(S)
can be calculated from the CN value which is determined by considering hydrological, soil
property, land use, surface conditions and soil moisture content before runoff occurs.
However, the CN method does not consider rainfall intensity and the estimated runoff depth
(Re) is computed using equation 6 (Silva and Oliveira, 1999).

( )

( )

Re = Estimated runoff depth (mm), Re = 0 for P ≤ 0.2S, P = Rainfall depth (mm), S = Potential
maximum retention after runoff begins (mm) given by
((

) )
Where: CN = Dimensionless curve number, 0 ≤ CN ≤ 100.
6.0 Literature Review
Analysis and evaluation of rainfall data are important in water resources planning and
management for the design purpose in construction of sewerage and storm systems,
determination of the required discharge capacity of a channels and capacity of pumping
stations. They are important in order to prevent flooding thereby reducing the loss of life and
properties, insurance of water damage and evaluation of hazardous weather. The prime
governing factor for the design of storm drainage system for an urban area is the storm runoff.
Storm runoff is that portion of precipitation which drains over the earth surface. Estimation of
such runoff reaching the storm drainage therefore is dependent on the intensity and duration
of precipitation, characteristics of tributary area and time required for such flow to reach the
drain (Priyanka, et al., 2013).
The probability distribution is the most widely used tool in the prediction and estimation of
storm data and as a result, there is need to search for the probability distribution method that
will be the best fit for the analysis of peak rainfall data for accurate prediction of future
occurrence and design of hydraulic structures. Study on the rainfall intensity duration (IDF)
relationship as it is important in rational method used in the determination of excess rainfall
has received much attention in the past few decades.
Miller, et al., (1973) developed various rainfall contour maps to provide the design rainfall
depth for various return periods and durations. Buishand, (1993) studied the influence of
correlation on the determination of intensity duration curve (IDF) for Netherland using the
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Final year project proposal V.O.Taiwo (11/30GB115) 9

annual maximum amounts for the duration between 1 and 10 days. A Gumbel distribution was
fitted to these annual maxima. It was demonstrated that ignorance of the correlation between
the estimated Gumbel parameters results in an underestimation of the standard deviation of
the estimation quintile from the IDF curve.
Al-dokhayel, (1986) in Ibrahim, (2012) performed a study to estimate the rainfall depth
frequency relationship for Qasim region in KSA at various return periods, using two continuous
probability distributions, the extreme value type I distribution (Gumbel) and the LPT III
distribution. He found that among the two distributions used in the study, the LPT III
distribution method gave some larger rainfall estimate with small standard error.
The choice of the probability distribution model is almost arbitrary as no physical basis is
available to rationalize the use of any particular function and the search for the proper
distribution function has been the subject of several studies (Murray and larry, 2000). There
are many sources of statistical information on the theoretical frequency distribution and test to
determine whether such parameters as stream flow, storm (rainfall) and evaporation fit these
distributions.
7.0 Rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) Analysis
The intensity of rainfall is the rate at which rain falls. Intensity is usually stated in (mm/h) or
(in/hr) regardless of the duration of the rainfall. Although it may be stated as the total rainfall
in a particular time (duration).Frequency can be expressed as the probability of a given
intensity of rainfall being equaled or exceeded, or it can be expressed in terms of the average
interval (recurrence interval) between rainfall intensities of a given or greater amount. The
frequency of rainfall intensity cannot be stated without specifying the duration of the rainfall
because the rainfall intensity varies with the duration of rainfall. Point rainfall data are used to
derive intensity-duration-frequency curves necessary in hydrologic analysis. Rainfall intensity-
duration-frequency IDF curves are graphical representation of the amount of water that falls
within a giving period of time in catchment areas (Fig.3). IDF curves are used to aid the
engineers while designing urban drainage works.
The two commonly used methods for selecting rainfall data used in frequency analyses are the
annual series and the partial-duration series. Annual-series analysis considers only the
maximum rainfall for each year (usually calendar year) and ignores the other rainfalls during
the year. These lesser rainfalls during the year sometimes exceed the maximum rainfalls of
other years. The partial-duration series analysis considers all of the high rainfalls regardless of
the number occurring within a particular year. In designing highway drainage facilities for
return periods greater than 10 years, the difference between the two series is unimportant.
When the return period (design frequency) is less than 10 years, the partial-duration series is
believed to be more appropriate (FHWA Manual, 1979).
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Final year project proposal V.O.Taiwo (11/30GB115) 10


Fig 3: Rainfall Intensity Duration Curve
Source: FHWA (1979)

8.0 Expected Results
At the end of the study, the design flows (discharge) would be determined for both Kwara and
Ekiti states. This will guide the planners and designers of hydraulic structures in designing
channels that can accommodate excess water (Runoff).The study will also address some
hydrological events such as flood that may affect or cause environmental problems as well as
the relationship between rainfall and runoff would be established.
9.0 Time Frame
The project work is estimated to be completed in eight months. The work breakdown structure
(WBS) for the project and the Gantt chart of the scheduling using Microsoft project are as
shown in Table 9.1 and Figure 4 respectively.




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Final year project proposal V.O.Taiwo (11/30GB115) 11

Table 9.1: Project work break down (WBS)
S/N Task Duration Start Date Finish Date
(Weeks)
1 Pondering on the given final year project topic 1 14/10/2013 19/10/2013
2 Sourcing for relevant literature materials 4 21/10/2013 16/11/2013
3 Gathering information on the case study areas 1 18/11/2013 23/11/2013
4 Reading and studying relevant literature materials 2 25/11/2013 10/12/2013
5 Writing the final project proposal 4 11/12/2013 07/01/2014
6 Sourcing for storm data for the two states 4 08/01/2014 04/02/2014
7 Analysis of collected data 10 05/02/2014 15/04/2014
8 Project documentation 6 16/04/2014 27/05/2014

10 Budget
The amount to be spent on this study is estimated at thirty three thousand, five hundred naira
(33,500:00). However, the breakdown is shown in table 10.1

Table 10.1: Project Cost

Item Description Amount

1 Literature and relevant materials (browsing) N3, 000:00
2 Transportation/Logistics N8, 000:00
3 Money for data collection N15, 000:00
4 Project Documentation N5, 000:00
5 Contingencies N2, 500:00
Total = N33, 500:00






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Final year project proposal V.O.Taiwo (11/30GB115) 12








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Final year project proposal V.O.Taiwo (11/30GB115) 13

11 References
1. Buishand, T.A. (1993). Rainfall Depth Duration Frequency Curves. A Problem of
DependentExtremes Statistics for the Environment, Wiley chicheiter,Pgs. 183-197.

2. Federal High Way Authority. (1979). Design of Urban Highway drainage Manual.
Available at www.fhwa.dot.gov/../ts79_225.pdf

3. Ibrahim, H.E. (2012). Developing Rainfall Intensity Duration Frequency Relationship for
two Regions in Saudi Arabia. Journal of King Saud University –Engineering Science, Vol
24, Issue 2, Pgs 131-140,ISSN 1018-3639.

4. Jerome, A.W and Arizona, L.C. (2004). Hydrology for System Design and Analysis.
McGraw-Hills Company. Available at www.digitalengineeringlibrary .com

5. Miller, J.F., Fredrick, R.H., and Tracey, R.J. (1973). Precipitation Frequency Atlas of the
Conterminous Western United State. Silver spring Maryland,vol 2, Pg 30-32.

6. Murray, R.S. and Larry, J.S. (2000). Theory and Problem of Statistics. Tata McGraw-Hills
Publishing Company Limited, New Dehil,Pgs 314-316, Third Edition.

7. Olofintoye, O.O., Sule, B.F., and Salami, A.W. (2009). Best-fit Probability Distribution
Model for Peak Daily Rainfall of Selected Cities in Nigeria. New York Science Journal,
2(3).

8. Priyanka, D.H., Khasiya, R.B., and Agnihotri, P.G. (2013). Analysis of Rainfall Data and
Design of Storm Water Drainage System in an Urban Area. International Research
Analysis, Vol 2, No 4.Pgs. 1-4.

9. Silva, C.L. and Olivera, C.A. (1999). Runoff Measurement and Prediction for a Watershed
under Natural Vegetation in Central Brazil.

10. Usman, B.H. (2012). Development of Runoff Hydrograph for Ogunpa River, Ibadan. Final
Year Project. Department of Civil Engineering, University of Ilorin, Ilorin, Nigeria.






APPROVED FINAL YEAR PROJECT PROPOSAL
BY
OLAEWE, SAMSON
OLADELE(09/30GB085)
Department Of Civil Engineering
University Of Ilorin. Ilorin, Nigeria
Project Supervisor: Dr. O.G. Okeola
December 2013
Final year project proposal Olaewe S.O.(09/30GB085)
2
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF A MUNICIPAL WATER SUPPLY SCHEME
BY
OLAEWE, S.O.
Department of Civil Engineering, University Of Ilorin. Ilorin, Nigeria
1.0 INTRODUCTION
Water supply network is a system of engineered hydrologic and hydraulic components
which provide water supply for public utilities. It is an infrastructure which involves a series
of processes ranging from collection, transmission, treatment, storage, and distribution of
water for consumption. Water as an economic good meets and satisfy the needs of its
various consumers’ in homes, commercial establishments, industries, agriculture, as well as
for such public needs for firefighting and street flushing. Municipal water supply scheme is
most of time a responsibility of the Government as it is considered a social amenity.
The characteristic features of water supply include the following (ADB, 2009):
1. The benefit is greater than or equal to its cost to the consumers.
2. Markets for water may be subject to imperfection, with features like physical
constraints, high costs of investment for certain applications, legal constraints,
complex institutional structures, the vital interests of different user groups,
limitations in the development of transferable rights to water, cultural values and
concerns of resource sustainability.
3. Water is usually a location-specific resource and mostly a non-tradable output.
4. Investments are occurring in medium term (typically 10 years) phases and have a
long investment life (20 to 30 years).
5. Pricing of water has rarely been efficient. Tariffs are often set below the average
economic cost, which jeopardizes a sustainable delivery of water. If water availability
is limited there will be competition for it among potential users (households,
industries, agriculture).
6. Economies of scale in water supply projects (WSPs) are moderate in production and
transmission but rather low in the distribution of water.
The above characteristics have implications on the design of WSPs considered as early as
the planning and appraisal stages of project preparation.The pattern of human settlement
from time has always been decided and controlled by certain natural but indispensable
factors. Water is one of such factors. Apart from air, the availability of water in adequate
quantity and quality is the most crucial factor to human existence (Sule and Okeola, 2010).
Water makes life possible and civilization cannot develop or survive if there is no water. As
man’s standard of living increases; so does his need for consumption of water (Ufoegbune
et al, 2010). In modern times, there is a close relationship between water availability and
economic development; especially in the developing countries. In Nigeria, water availability
controls population distribution.
Final year project proposal Olaewe S.O.(09/30GB085)
3
In terms of personal needs, an average man requires 2.5 liters of water daily for drinking.
Aside this, man requires water for various other uses such as cooking, washing, sanitation,
agriculture, industrial production, hydro-electric power, etc. To provide for these various
uses, the supply of water must meet the demand of the user, be satisfactory in quality and
adequate in quantity, be readily available to users, and be relatively cheap and easily
disposed of after it has served its purpose. A necessary works are waterworks or water
supply systems or waste works or wastewater disposal systems (Ufoegbune et al, 2010).
Municipal water systems generally comprise: (i) Collection or intake works (ii) Purification or
treatment works and (iii) Transmission and distribution works
There are different views and aspects to municipal water supply schemes, this study takes
care of the economic aspects. Economics consist of a set of analytical tools that can be used
for balancing competing objectives by allocating the scarce resources (Mohammed et al.,
2003). Engineering economy is concern with the economic aspects of engineering. It
involves the systematic evaluation of costs and benefits of technical projects. Environmental
economics is the application of the principles of economics to the study of how
environmental resources are developed and managed. The entire process of planning,
design, construction, operation, and maintenance of water resources system entails many
important and complex decisions. Besides technological and environmental considerations,
economic principles play a significant role in making these decisions. The principle of
engineering economics gives guide in selecting the best planning and/or operational
decisions.
Water resources development projects have two sides: on the one side, they create value
and on the other side they encounter costs. The value side of the analysis is based on the
fact that individuals have preferences for goods and services. The value of a good to a
person is what that person is willing to pay for that good. Thus, the value of a good and
services is tied to the willingness to pay. The costs associated with different economic
activities can be classified as fixed and variable. Fixed costs are not affected by the range of
operation or activity level. General management and administrative salaries and taxes on
water supply facilities are some example of fixed costs while variable costs are those
associated with the quantity of output or other measure of activity level (Mohammed et al.,
2003).
Many state water agencies (SWA) are finding it difficult to operate and maintain water
schemes in the face of escalating cost of production. Yet, the demand for water is rising with
increasing population and the yearnings for economic growth and development (Sule and
Okeola, 2010). The provision of water supply and sanitation services broadly conceived is a
huge societal enterprise. In both industrialized and developing countries it often accounts
for a substantial share of public sector investment (Whittington and Hanemann, 2006). The
cost of reservoirs, canals, water transmission lines, urban distribution networks, pumping
stations, water treatment facilities, sewerage collection and conveyance, wastewater
treatment facilities and the land required for all these facilities makes this one of the largest
“industries” in most industrialized economies.
Final year project proposal Olaewe S.O.(09/30GB085)
4
The payments an individual household makes for these assets; both in direct payments for
services and indirect taxes, is often a significant household budget expenditure, and a
household’s share of these assets can represent a substantial portion of its net worth, albeit
publicly owned and typically not easily tradable (Whittington and Hanemann, 2006).
The cost of a water supply infrastructure vary depending on individual circumstances, and
estimates of what it will cost to provide a certain level of service may vary widely. Also, most
investments are incremental in nature. Only rarely would a community incur the costs of
complete (“full-service”) piped water and sanitation systems at a single point in time
(Whittington and Hanemann, 2006).
As earlier discussed, the existence of man is determined by the availability of water, it is
therefore essential to carry out an economic analysis of water supply projects so that
planners, policy makers, water enterprises and consumers are aware of the actual economic
cost of scarce water resources and the appropriate level of tariff and cost recovery needed
to financially sustain it.
2.1 SCOPE AND LIMITATION OF STUDY
The project shall be limited to carrying out an economic analysis of the municipal water
supply facility with focus on its operation, maintenance & management. The study is
confined to the existing water supply facility (Asa Dam Water Works) and its consumers
(Ilorin metropolis).
2.2 CASE STUDY
The case study is Asa-Dam Water Works and its serving population in ilorin metropolis.
Ilorin is the capital of Kwara State (Fig 1). It is located at 8.5° latitude and 4.55° longitude
with an average elevation of 310 meters. It is occupying an approximate area of 100km²
situated in the transition zone between the deciduous woodland of the South and the
Savannah of the north, thus giving it a status of “Gate way city” in Nigeria (Adewale, 2013).
Ilorin is a major Nigeria indigenous city which evolved through a period of traditional
urbanization which took place in some parts of West Africa. It has passed through three
stages, pre-colonial, colonial and post-colonial era (Ajadi, 1996). Ilorin metropolis has the
tropical wet-dry climate; days are very hot during the dry season from November to April
with temperatures typically ranging from 33°C to 37°C.
The daily range of temperature during the rainy season is 8°C to 12°C. Rainfall condition in
Ilorin exhibits greater variability both temporarily and spatially. The mean annual rainfall has
been estimated to be 1,318mm. It normally starts in April and ends in October. However,
the rainfall intensity, frequency and amounts vary from month to month. The dry season is
characterized by cold and dry conditions due to harmatan (Adewale, 2013).The main river in
Ilorin is the Asa River which divides the city into two parts, the western part represent the
core indigenous area and the eastern part consisting of the modern residential areas
Final year project proposal Olaewe S.O.(09/30GB085)
5
including the GRA. Generally, the elevation of the land in the western side ranges from
273m to 364m while the Sobi hill is a smooth, steep-sided, dome-shaped outcrop, the
highest of a group of such hills that rise above the gently undulating savanna to the North of
Ilorin (Adewale, 2013).
Fig 1: Map of Nigeria showing Kwara State.
Asa dam water works is situated in the northwestern part of Ilorin in the north central part
of Nigeria. It was constructed by Julius Berger Nigeria PLC in order to increase the supply of
potable water by approximately 50,000 cubic metres per day to the towns within the state.
Asa dam water work is in one phase,which supplies over 300,000 m3 of water per daywhen
the treatment plants are operational. Themaximum height of the dam is about 45 m.
Theraw water intake from the dam reservoir isthrough pipe openings at different levels
incircular concrete intakes tower located within thereservoir. There are eight different levels
givingthe opportunity to select a particular level forraw water abstraction depending on
itscharacteristics (Musa and Funmen, 2013). The Dam consists of three sections: a 400m
long earth fill dam, a 150m long concrete gravity dam and a lateral earth dam with a length
of 160m. The earth fill dam is 26m high above the bottom of the Asa River and has a width
of 150m at the dam foot and of 5m at the crest.
Final year project proposal Olaewe S.O.(09/30GB085)
6
3.0 AIM AND OBJECTIVES
The aim of this project is to carry out an economic analysis of Ilorin municipal water supply
scheme. The specific objectives to accomplish this are as follow:
1. Identifying benefits, both quantifiable and nonquantifiable, and determining
whether economic benefits exceed economic costs.
2. To investigate the operation, maintenance and management of the scheme.
3. To carry out an economic analysis of scheme.
4.0 LITERATURE REVIEW
The World Health Organization (WHO) carried out a survey in 1975 which revealed that only
22% of the rural population in developing countries had access to safe drinking water. The
findings which were published in 1976, led to the declaration of 1981-1990 as the
International Drinking Water Supply and Sanitation Decade, by the United Nations Water
Conference (Dada et al., 1988). The growing water scarcities and water pollution in
developing and developed countries alike have plunged the world into a water crisis
(Adewale, 2013). Establishing a small water scheme for the improvement of water supply in
the rural areas is often associated with costs which the rural community may not be able to
shoulder as a result of its heavy financial investment. The calculated financial investment
needed globally for water and sanitation between 2010 and 2015 which is the MDGs target
year for all countries to satisfy the drinkable water and sanitation requirements to achieve
the goals target to be $145 billion (Ezenwaji and Enete,2013).
A development project was initiated on Obizi Regional Water Supply Scheme in Aguata,
Anambra state Nigeria which serves 14 communities. The aim of the project was to assess
the use of traditional microfinance method as an innovative approach to the development
of the water supply facility. Data were generated through the use of questionnaire and
others from secondary sources and the datas were analysed by use of factor scores from
principal component analysis (PCA) to establish the performance of this innovation in all the
component communities that benefited from the water scheme. PCA output revealed that
the innovation is performing well in some communities but not in some others. Some of the
variables employed are amount of money contributed monthly through microfinance
approach for the development and extension of the scheme, the population of water
consumers in the area, government assistance, daily water consumption amount, cost of
developing water infrastructure etc. (Ezenwaji and Enete, 2013).
The people of Aguata in Anambra state are one such area where the State Government has
invested Three hundred million Naira (₦300,000,000) on its Obizi water supply scheme to
serve the water scarce Local Government Area. But after 2 years of the commissioning of
the scheme, some parts of it started breaking down. This leads to the establishment of
Water Consumers Associations (WCAs) in the communities to facilitate sustainability of the
scheme. Some of the roles of the WCAs include organizing financial contributions and
controlling the gathered funds, appoint staff to monitor the water scheme and oversee the
Final year project proposal Olaewe S.O.(09/30GB085)
7
collection of the user payments, discussing with agency staff on how best to rehabilitate or
extend water system to meet the changing needs etc. The findings highlighted the adequacy
of the model to ensure sustainability of regional water supply schemes in Nigeria. It
encourages minimal external assistance in the long run, financing of regular operation and
maintenance costs of users and continued flow of benefits over a long period. The findings
also indicated that the model has its good performance in only 4 out of 14 communities due
to poor mobilization of the community members to support the WCAs (Ezenwaji and Enete,
2013).
The history of improved water supply in Kwara state dated back to the early 1900s, when
the colonialist and Christian missionaries established small dams, motorized well and rain
harvesting devices in their various centers. However the first attempt by the State
Government started with commissioning of Agba Dam in 1952. With the creation of Kwara
State Water Corporation (KWWC) in 1972, the supply system extended to many parts of the
State particularly with the commissioning of Asa Dam in 1978(Adebisi and Ifabiyi, 1999).
Sule and Okeola (2010) conducted an assessment on the performance of the Oyun River
Regional Water Supply Scheme (ORRWSS) serving seven towns with population of 183927
people. The findings indicated that only 70% of this population was actually supplied to a
reasonable extent. The capacity of the treatment plant is 20000m
3
/day, but the production
rate is 15,000m
3
/day. After allowing 20% for UFW, the available supply is 12,000m
3
,
whereas the demand is 23,000m
3
/day. Hence the supply is only satisfying 53% of the
demand. The tariff is low and revenue generation is only 13% of the production cost of
water. The degree of service in terms of supply is not satisfactory because five towns out of
the seven towns are not getting adequate supply.
Olutimaleyin (1986) carried out an economic analysis of a city water supply scheme in Kwara
State.The study examined the economics analysis of water supply in Ilorin Township from
the year 1976 to 1986. The analysis covered stages of investment made, interest rate on
funds made available to Water Board, the amount of water produced, the production cost,
its mode of organization, rates for their services and revenue generated. The methodology
approach considered present worth, annual worth, future worth, the payback period,
internal rate of return, the benefit cost ratio and the benefit less cost. The findings indicated
that from 1976-1984 the operating and maintenance cost of the scheme is higher than the
revenue generated, until 1985 when the benefit-cost ratio was greater than one. This
indicated that the revenue was greater than the operating and maintenance cost. The result
seen in 1985 indicates a good cost recovery and response of the water consumers to
payment of water tariff which bring in a revenue which can facilitate economic viability of
the scheme.
5.1 METHODOLOGY
The methodology involves both the field and desk study. The field study involves a
reconnaissance survey of both the scheme and ilorin metropolis to obtain basic and
Final year project proposal Olaewe S.O.(09/30GB085)
8
technical informations needed for economic analysis of the scheme.The reconnaisance
survey would be done through oral interview and field observations. The desk study
comprises : (i) investigation of the operation, maintenance and management of the scheme
(ii) identification of benefits of the scheme to determine if its economic benefits exceed
economic costs (iii) economic analysis of the scheme.
5.1.1 Operation and Maintenance Cost (O&M)
This cost includes all expenses incurred in treatment of water from raw water to potable
water. It includes the cost of chemicals, energy, salaries and wages, repairs and
replacements cost, etc. The O&M cost is also refers to as the running cost, which is the
various input costs of producing one cubic meter (m
3
) of water as an output for consumers
utility. As one of its objectives, this study shall be interested in investigating the operation &
maintenance cost of the scheme annually and the recurrent expenditure for a sustainable
service delivery.
5.1.2 Benefit-Cost ratio
The benefit-cost ratio method has been widely used in the economic analysis of water
resources projects. The method is based on the calculation of the ratio of benefits to costs;
it holds that the ratio should be estimated based on the equivalent worth of discounted
benefits and costs. It considers the time value of money.Therefore the annual worth,
present worth, or future worth of benefits and costs would be used. The following are the
basic formulations for benefit-cost ratio:
− = …………………………………………(1)
Where B is the net equivalent benefits, which is the revenue of the scheme from water
tariff, C is the net equivalent annual cost (operation and maintenance costs of the
scheme).For any project to be economically viable, its benefit-cost ratio should exceed one
(1) therefore,
> 1 − > 0
The Benefit-Cost ratio shall be use in this study to evaluate the economic viability of Asa-
Dam water works by using equation…(1) to obtain the ratio of its revenue and expenditure
per time.
5.1.3 Economic Analysis
The economic analysis shall be done through Discount Cash Flow (DCF) method, capital
recovery factor, sinking fund factor and average investment cost. They shall be limited to
the recurrent expenditure of the Asa-Dam water scheme. The fomulations are as follows:
(i) Discount Cash Flow (DCF)
The DCF techniques are generally proposed for evaluating profitability of various kinds of
projects and can be use to appraise the scheme this study is considering. The two methods
Final year project proposal Olaewe S.O.(09/30GB085)
9
of DCF techniques are Net Present Value (NPV) and Internal Rate of Return (IRR) which have
two common features namely the use of cash flows and time value of money (Okeola,
2009). The NPV and IRR both yields the same decision, perhaps NPV has advantages over
IRR. The DCF in this study shall be limited to the recurrent expenditures of the period. This is
the value of annual series of cost and associated benefits. The cost herein refers to all
operational cost for the provision of water supply service while the benefits are the returns
from all categories of water tariff revenues.
=

1 +

………………………………………………. (6)
Where R
i
is the revenue in period i, C
i
is the operation cost in period I, i is the period
number, r is the discount rate. The hypothesis is that a positive NPV is an indication of
financial viability while a negative NPV IS non viability.
(ii) Internal Rate of Return (IRR)
This can be defined as the discount rate that will set the net present value or the net future
value of the cash flow equal to zero. It is also the rate of interest earned on the unrecovered
balanced of an investment. Its relation is as follows:
=
1
1 +
− Ct = , %, − Ct ……………………………. (5)
Where C
t
is the capital invested on the scheme in year t, n is the life span of the scheme
(iii) Capital recovery factor (A/P, I, n)
This calculates the uniform series amount A that will recover a capital P invested on a
project in periods (n).
=
1 +
1 + − 1
……………………………. . (2)
Where A is amount to be recovered as payback for the capital (either loan or debt) use for
the running cost of the project, P is recurrent expenditure, i is interest rate and n is life span
of the project
(iv) Average Investment Cost (AIC)
This is the cost of present and future investment in order to produce and distribute one
cubic meter of water (François and Johnny, 2001)
=
+ 1 −
……………………………. (4)
Where INI is the present operating capital, FIN is the future worth of operating capital to be
invested on the project, TWP is the total volume of water produce in a period and C is the
cost recovery. Average investment cost shall be incorporated in this study mainly to
Final year project proposal Olaewe S.O.(09/30GB085)
10
evaluate the future and present amount of capital(recurrent cost) to operate the scheme
effectively.
6.0 EXPECTED RESULT
• Economic analysis of Asa Dam water works.
• The demand and supply from existing facility would be known.
• Economic costs (recurrent expenditure) of the facility and the appropriate levels of
tariff and cost recovery needed to financially sustain it would be determined.
• Benefit – cost ratio of the scheme under consideration.
• Operation, maintenance and management of the scheme.
• Recommendations for the effective operation and sustenance of the scheme.
7.0 TIME FRAME
Table7.1: Project Work Breakdown Structure (WBS)
S/N Task Duration Start Finish
(Weeks) Date Date
1 Selection of final year project topic 3 14/10/13 01/11/13
2 Search of materials on the project 2 04/11/13 15/11/13
3 Reading and Studying of relevant 4 08/11/13 05/12/13
Literature
4 Writing final year project proposal 3 08/11/13 28/11/13
5 Analysis/Assessment of Asa-Dam 4 20/12/13 01/01/14
water works
6 Survey on the study area 2 01/17/14 01/30/14
7 Computation of Results and Datas 2 02/15/14 02/27/14
8 Economic Analyses of the Data 4 03/03/14 04/04/14
obtained
9 Project Documentation 2 07/04/14 18/04/14
8.0 BUDGET
Table8.1: Project budget
S/N Activity Estimated cost (Naira)
1 Relevant Textbooks 4000.00
2 Internet facility 8000.00
3 Transportation 2000.00
4 Documentation 10000.00
5 Miscellaneous 6000.00
Total 30000
Final year project proposal Olaewe S.O.(09/30GB085)
11
9.0 REFRENCES
Adebisi, A. and Ifabiyi, I.P. (1999).The Distribion of Water and the Role of Public Agencies in
Kwara State.Journal of Social and Management Studies.Vol 6, pp.17-122.
Adewale, A.D.(2013). Water Demand and Supply Analyses in Ilorin Metropolis.Final Year
Project. Department of Civil Engineering, University of Ilorin, Ilorin, Nigeria
Ajadi, B.S. (1996): Pattern of Water Supply in Ilorin City, Final Year Project. Department of
Geography, University of Ilorin, Ilorin, Nigeria
Asian Develpment Bank (1999).Handbook for the Economic Analysis of Water
SupplyProject.ISBN: 971-561-220-2. Available at.
http://www.adb.org/Documents/Handbooks/Water_Supply_Projects. (Accessed 18 october
2013).
Dada, O.O., Okuofu, A.C and Obele, E. (1988).Faecal Pollution of Well Water in Zaria City,
Nigeria.Savanna, J. Environ. Social Sci., 9 (2): 1-5. A.B.U. Zaria Press Ltd.
Final year project proposal Olaewe S.O.(09/30GB085)
11
9.0 REFRENCES
Adebisi, A. and Ifabiyi, I.P. (1999).The Distribion of Water and the Role of Public Agencies in
Kwara State.Journal of Social and Management Studies.Vol 6, pp.17-122.
Adewale, A.D.(2013). Water Demand and Supply Analyses in Ilorin Metropolis.Final Year
Project. Department of Civil Engineering, University of Ilorin, Ilorin, Nigeria
Ajadi, B.S. (1996): Pattern of Water Supply in Ilorin City, Final Year Project. Department of
Geography, University of Ilorin, Ilorin, Nigeria
Asian Develpment Bank (1999).Handbook for the Economic Analysis of Water
SupplyProject.ISBN: 971-561-220-2. Available at.
http://www.adb.org/Documents/Handbooks/Water_Supply_Projects. (Accessed 18 october
2013).
Dada, O.O., Okuofu, A.C and Obele, E. (1988).Faecal Pollution of Well Water in Zaria City,
Nigeria.Savanna, J. Environ. Social Sci., 9 (2): 1-5. A.B.U. Zaria Press Ltd.
Final year project proposal Olaewe S.O.(09/30GB085)
11
9.0 REFRENCES
Adebisi, A. and Ifabiyi, I.P. (1999).The Distribion of Water and the Role of Public Agencies in
Kwara State.Journal of Social and Management Studies.Vol 6, pp.17-122.
Adewale, A.D.(2013). Water Demand and Supply Analyses in Ilorin Metropolis.Final Year
Project. Department of Civil Engineering, University of Ilorin, Ilorin, Nigeria
Ajadi, B.S. (1996): Pattern of Water Supply in Ilorin City, Final Year Project. Department of
Geography, University of Ilorin, Ilorin, Nigeria
Asian Develpment Bank (1999).Handbook for the Economic Analysis of Water
SupplyProject.ISBN: 971-561-220-2. Available at.
http://www.adb.org/Documents/Handbooks/Water_Supply_Projects. (Accessed 18 october
2013).
Dada, O.O., Okuofu, A.C and Obele, E. (1988).Faecal Pollution of Well Water in Zaria City,
Nigeria.Savanna, J. Environ. Social Sci., 9 (2): 1-5. A.B.U. Zaria Press Ltd.
Final year project proposal Olaewe S.O.(09/30GB085)
12
Daniel, W.T., Teresa, L., Julia, K. (2009). Economic Analysis of Water Supply Cost Structure in
theMiddle Olifants Sub-Basins of South Africa.ZEF - Discussion Papers on Development
Policy Bonn.
Ezenwaji, E.E. and Enete, I.C. (2013). The use of traditional microfinance method as an
innovative approach to the development of Obizi Regional Water Scheme in Aguata, Nigeria.
Nigerian Association of Hydrological Sciences (NAHS)Proceedings, volume 5.
Francois, B. and Johnny, R. (2001). Key Factor for Sustainable Cost Recovery in the context of
community-managed water supply. Occasional Paper Series 32.E, IRC International water
and Sanitation Centre Deift, the netherlands
Mohammed, K., Ferenc, S., Banafsheh, Z. (2003).Handbook for Water Resources Systems
Analysis.ISBN 1-56670-642-4, Lewis publishers.
Musa, J.J. and Funmen, G.A. (2013). Assessment of portable water supply sources in Ilorin
metropolis, Kwara State, Nigeria. Int. J. Agril. Res. Innov & Tech. Olutimayin, R. (1986).
Economic Analysis of A City Water Supply Scheme. Final year Project, Department of Civil
Engineering, University of Ilorin, Ilorin, Nigeria
Okeola, O. (2013). Construction Engineering Lecture Note (CVE 581). Civil Engineering
Department, University of Ilorin, Nigeria
Okeola, O.G.(2009). Development and Application of Multicriteria Decision Support Models
For Sustainable Operation of An Urban Water System. PhD thesis, Department of Civil
Engineering, University of Ilorin, Nigeria
Sule, B.F. and Okeola, O.G. (2010). Assessment of The Performance of a Regional Water
Supply Scheme in Kwara State, Nigeria. Journal of Engineering & Technology Vol. 6 no. 1&2,
pp. 10-19
Ufoegbune, G.C., Oyedepo, J.A., Awomeso, A. O. Eruola(2010). Spatial Analysis of Municipal
Water Supply in Abeokuta Metropolis, South Western Nigeria.
Whittington, D. and Hanemann, W.M. (2006). The Economic Cost and Benefits of
Investments in Municipal Water and Sanitation Infrastructure: A Global Perspective.
eSholarship Repository, University of California. http:// repositories.cdlib.org/are.ucb/1027.
(Assessed: January 20, 2014.)
FINAL YEAR PROJECT PROPOSAL
By
AFODUN, Muhammad Mukhtar (08/30GB017)
DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL ENGINEERING
UNIVERSITY OF ILORIN, Nigeria
Project Supervisor: Dr. O. G. Okeola
November 2012
Afodun, M. M. (08/30GB017) 2012
Final Year Project Proposal | 2
DESIGN OF AN UNDERGROUND WATER TANK FOR GEGELE COMMUNITY IN KWARA STATE.
By
AFODUN, M. M.
Department of Civil Engineering, University of Ilorin, Ilorin, Nigeria.
1.0 INTRODUCTION
The growing need for water tanks was impelled by water scarcity and rapid population
explosion within the last decade.Underground tanks are liquid containing vessels that accommodate
the internal pressure from the containing fluid and the lateral earth pressure from the surrounding
soil. Underground water tanks are used to store water, liquid petroleum, petroleum products and
similar liquids. The force analysis of the tanks is about the same irrespective of the chemical nature of
the product. All tanks are designed as water proof structures to eliminate any leakage to the soil and
also to prevent seepage into the tank there by causing contamination.
Water is one of the basic necessities for human beings. Different sectors of the society use
water for different purposes, for example drinking, cooking, bathing,sanitation and washing clothes.
Water requirements for any society vary upon factors such as number of buildings in the society,
number of floors in each building. Swimming and gardening have become additional factors for
increased water demand nowadays.
Gegele community is a densely populated residential society in the heart of Ilorin metropolis
of Kwara State. The community has a low pressure water supply from the state water Corporation.
The low water pressure inhibits proper circulation and distribution of water in the society. The general
idea of this project is to collect and store this low pressure water in the proposed underground tank
and then pump it to designated overhead tanks for efficient distribution to the community under
gravity.
In general, there are three types of water tanks:
(i) Surface tanks
(ii) Elevated tanks, and
(iii) Underground tanks.
Water tanks could also be made from ranges of materials such as(Woolhether, 2012):
 Plastic
 Fiberglass
Afodun, M. M. (08/30GB017) 2012
Final Year Project Proposal | 3
 Steel
 Concrete: Precast or cast-in-place concrete is an exceptionally strong and durable material
used for underground water tanks. Underground concrete tanks work well where space is a
challenge. Concrete works especially well in fire-prone areas. If placed underground, there is
minimal risk of damage from fire or environmental factors.
From the shape point of view, water tanks may be of several types, such as:
1. Circular tanks
2. Rectangular tanks
3. Spherical tanks
4. Circular tanks with conical bottoms ( Intze tanks).
5. Conical tanks
Rectangular tanks are usuallyused when small capacityof water is required. Small-capacity
circular tanks are uneconomical becauseshuttering (formwork) for circular tank is very costly. The
rectangular tanks should be preferably square in plan so as to economize construction material. It is
desirable that the longer side should not be greater than twice the smaller side (Mohammed, 2011).
However rectangular tanks are not used for large capacities since they are not economical and also, its
exact analysis is difficult. For a given capacity, perimeter is least for a circular tank (Punmia et. al.,
2003).
The aim of this project is to efficiently store the low pressure water supply in Gegele
community in a designed underground tank.
2.0 STUDY AREA
The case study is Gegelecommunity, it is an Urban Settlement in the heart of Ilorin metropolis,
Ilorin West, Kwara State. Gegele has a global coordinate of 8° 29ʹ 41.89ʺ N and 4° 32ʹ 53.24ʺ E.
3.0 AIMAND OBJECTIVES
The aim of this project is to designfor a durable, reliable, economic and functional
underground water tank for Gegele community in Kwara State.
The specific objectives to accomplish the aimare:
 To reliably and approximately estimate the total water demand for Gegele community.
 To structurally analyzean underground water tank.
 To economically designand detail aconcrete underground water tank.
Afodun, M. M. (08/30GB017) 2012
Final Year Project Proposal | 4
 To reasonably estimate the cost of constructing a functional underground water tank for
Gegele community in Kwara State.
4.0 LITERATURE REVIEW
The choice of concrete as the constructionmaterial for underground water tanks has many
advantages over other materials, including (Gibson 2010):
 Inherent strength making them naturally rigid and durable.
 Durability without prone to rusting, corroding or being damaged by tree roots.
 Availability in a variety of different sizes.
 Concrete tanks are not liable to ‘float’ like a plastic tank under high Hydrostatic pressure.
 Concrete is made from natural materials and is therefore easily recycled.
 Concrete tanks save space by being buried underground.
 Keeping water cool.
In the construction of concrete structures for the storage of liquids, the imperviousness of
concrete is an important basic requirement. Hence, the design of such construction is based on
avoidance of cracking in the concrete. In addition, concrete tanks require low maintenance. Concrete
construction makes for a substantial, sturdy tank structure that easily contain the internal liquid
pressure while comfortably resisting external forces such as earthquake, wind, and lateral earth
pressure. The water tank has to be far away from sanitary structures such as soak-aways and septic
tanks.
Mohammed (2011) stated that the design of a tank can be more economical, reliable and
simple ifoptimization method is used to calculate the minimum cost of structural design of
rectangular and circular sanitary concrete tanks. Gupta (2010) analyzed the theory behind the design
of liquid retaining structure such as rectangular underground water tank. Thereport also included
design requirements of water tank, survey, excavation methods, reduced levels, average depth of
UGWT, soil on which it is constructed, depth of water table, type of mix design and capacity of the
tank.
A brief theory behind design of liquid retaining structure (circular water tank with flexible and
rigid base and underground water tank) using working stress method was presented by Sahoo (2008).
The study also included computer subroutines to analyze and design circular water tank with flexible
and rigid base and rectangular underground water tank. The programme was written in Microsoft
excel using visual basic programming language.
Afodun, M. M. (08/30GB017) 2012
Final Year Project Proposal | 5
5.0 METHODOLOGY
The methodological steps involved in executing the project are outlined below:
5.1 Mapping and Geo-information
Google Earth software will be used to show location of the catchment area by aerial photographs and
also get important information about the area. Example of such information is the approximate area
of the Community.
5.2 Water demand estimation
The water demand of the community has to be calculated by multiplying the population and average
water demand per capita per day.An approximate water demand of the community can be calculated
using approved standards. The National Population Commission figure for Gegele Community,
arithmetic population growthand WHO per capita water demand will be used to estimate the size and
geometry of the tank for a 20- year design period. According to World Health Organization (WHO) the
average consumption for every human being to have access to sufficient water for personal and
domestic use is between 0.05 and 0.1 cubic metre of water per day (United Nations, 2010). In a recent
study by Sule et. Al., (2010) it was found out that most Ilorin residents use between 0.046 to 0.115
cubic metre of water per person per day.
5.3 Siting of tank and surveying
The tank must be sited at a place far from sewage and septic tanks so as to prevent water
contamination. The site of the tank should also be well drained. Underground tanks conserve space
since they are buried under ground, though the cover will have to be designed to accommodate likely
imposed loads.
5.4 Laboratory tests
Some soil property parameters of the tank site are needed for design. Examples are: Lateral earth
Pressure,Bearing Capacity etc. Parameters like density(ɣ), Angle of friction (ɸ), cohesiveness (c), are
used to determine the active lateral earth pressure force imposed on the tank wall and the bearing
capacity of the soil. Example of such experiment to be carried out is Direct Shear test.
5.5 Structural Analysis and Design
The approach of designing this water tank will be manual, using a number of guides, design standards
and codes. The tank will be designed and detailed to BS 8007 & 8110 using limit state design
approach. This method is based on working loads and permissible stresses in the concrete and steel
which is considered to be within the elastic range. Lateral earth pressure, hydrostatic and surcharge
Afodun, M. M. (08/30GB017) 2012
Final Year Project Proposal | 6
pressures will be analyzed in depth. Design will also cater for flotation and cracking. The design is also
going to be detailed for more information on the reinforcements.
5.6 Bill of Engineering Measurement and Evaluation(BEME)
The BEME of this project would contain an estimate of the quantity of material and the cost if this
project were to be executed.
6.0 EXPECTED RESULTS
The expected result is the design of an economical and durable underground water tank that will ease
the poor water supply at Gegele Community.
7.0 TIME FRAME (SCHEDULE)
The project is optimistically estimated to take about seven Months to completion. The Project Work
Breakdown Structure and the Gantt chart of the scheduling using Microsoft Project are shown in
Table 7.1 and Figure7.1.
Table7.1: Project Work Breakdown Structure (WBS)
S/N TASK DURATION
(weeks)
START
DATE
FINISH
DATE
1
Brainstorming of final year project topic 2 16/10/12 29/10/12
2
Writing final year project proposal 9 29/10/12 28/12/12
3
Mapping and Geo-information 2 18/1/13 31/1/13
4
Sourcing for population figure of Gegele community 3 2/1/13 22/1/13
5
Water demand estimation 3 21/2/13 13/3/13
6
Tank siting 9 17/1/13 20/3/13
7
Laboratory tests 6 21/2/13 3/4/13
8
Structural Design, Detailing and Preparation of BEME. 14 7/2/13 15/5/13
9
Project Documentation 2 13/5/13 24/5/13
8.0 BUDGET
The Resources that will be used in carrying out this project is estimated below.
Table8.1: Project budget
S/N Activity Estimated
cost (Naira)
1 Textbooks 4000.00
2 Internet browsing 5000.00
3 Transportation 1000.00
4 Laboratory Tests 7000.00
5 Project Printing/ Documentation 10000.00
Total 27000.00
Afodun, M. M. (08/30GB017) 2012
Final Year Project Proposal | 7
9.0 REFERENCES
Gibson. C, (2010). Concrete Underground Water Tanks. Available at:
http://www.homeimprovementpages.com.au/article/concrete_underground_water_tanks (Accessed
October 30, 2012).
Gupta, L. (2010). Design of Underground Water Tank. Final Year Project. Department of Civil Engineering,
Walchand Institute of Technology, Solapur, India.
Mohammed, H. J. (2011). Economical Design of Water Concrete Tanks. European Journal of Scientific
Research. (49)4, pp 510-520.
Punmia, B. C., Jain. A. K. and Jain. A. K, (2003)Reinforced Concrete Structures. Laxmi Publications (P) Limited,
New Delhi, India. Vol 2 pg 261-262.
Sahoo, N. (2008). Design of water tank. Final Year Project.Department of Civil Engineering, National Institute
of Rourkella, India.
Sule, B.F., Ayanshola, A.M. and Salami, A.W. (2010).Water Consumption Patterns in Ilorin, Kwara State, Nigeria.
Proceeding of the 2nd Annual Civil Engineering Conference, University of Ilorin, Nigeria, 26 – 28 July 2010
Department of Civil Engineering, University of Ilorin, Ilorin, Nigeria. Pg. 231
United Nations (2006).Global Issues: Water. Available at: http://www.un.org/en/globalissues/water/
(Accessed: November 7, 2012).
United Nations (2010).Media brief: The Human Right to Water and Sanitation. Available at:
www.un.org/waterforlifedecade (Accessed: December 9, 2012).
Woolhether. L. (2012). The Best Underground Water Tanks. Available at:
http://www.ehow.com/list_7502181_underground-water-tanks.html#ixzz2BJrZ1BbJ (Accessed November 5, 2012).
ID Task Name Duration Start Finish
1 Brainstorming of
Final Year Project
Topic: searching for
a societal problem
2 wks Tue
10/16/12
Mon
10/29/12
2 Writing Final Year
Project Proposal
9 wks Mon
10/29/12
Fri
12/28/12
3 Sourcing for
Population figure of
the area both on the
Internet and the
Nigerian Population
Commission
3 wks Wed
1/2/13
Tue
1/22/13
4 Mapping and
Geo-Information
2 wks Fri
1/18/13
Thu
1/31/13
5 Estimating Water
Demand
3 wks Thu
2/21/13
Wed
3/13/13
6 Tank Siting 9 wks Thu
1/17/13
Wed
3/20/13
7 Laboratory Tests 6 wks Thu
2/21/13
Wed
4/3/13
8 Structural Design,
Detailing and
preparation of the
BEME.
14 wks Thu
2/7/13
Wed
5/15/13
9 Project
Documentation
2 wks Mon
5/13/13
Fri
5/24/13
Internet and si milar past Projects,Papers and Journals
national poulati on Comission,Internet
Google Earth Software
Community Population,WHO estimate of water consumption per capita
Laboratory and Test guides
Design Codes and Standards
M E B M E B M E B M E B M E B M E B M E B M E B M E
r November December J anuary February March April May J une
Task
Progress
Milestone
Summary
Rolled Up Task
Rolled Up Milestone
Rolled Up Progress
Split
External Tasks
Project Summary
Group By Summary
Deadline
PROJ ECT TIME FRAME (SCHEDULE)
Figure 7.1: Project Gantt Chart.
Project: timeframe project 4
Date: Thu 1/24/13
FINAL YEAR PROJECT PROPOSAL
BY
AMEEN, Muhydeen Garba (09/30GB116)
DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL ENGINEERING
UNIVERSITY OF ILORIN, NIGERIA
Project Supervisor: Dr. O. G. Okeola
November, 2012
Final Year Project Proposal 2012
AMEEN, M.G 2
AN EMPIRICAL ASSESSMENT OF CAUSES OF BUILDING FAILURES IN NIGERIA
By
AMEEN, M.G
Department of Civil Engineering, University of Ilorin, Ilorin, Nigeria
1.0 INTRODUCTION
Building is essentially a space that protects man from the natural environment. These
structures serve as place of residence, work, worship, etc or as means of transportation. They are
so essential to man just as air, water and food. It must possess adequate strength and every
member of structural system should be able to resist the applied loads under service conditions
without failure or collapse. Buildings through the ages have been an important aspect of the socio-
economic development of human beings. Buildings like all structures are designed to support
certain load without deforming excessively. Collapse of buildings is not new in Nigeria nor is it
peculiar to Nigeria. Collapse of building can occur to any kind of building but the casualty of multi-
storey buildings can be fatal. Building stability depends on the structural elements of the building
and these elements serves as the backbone of the whole building. Over the last 10 years, the
incidence of building collapse or failure in Nigeria has become alarming and does not show any
sign of abating with each collapse carries along with it damaging effects that cannot be easily
forgotten by the victims.
Even though the occurrence of building failures are found to be more prevalent in the
urban centers of the country, however, cases of building collapse in the country are found not to
be limited to urban cities as they cut across cultural, ethnic and geographical barriers in such a
manner that their occurrence apparently reflects what can be described as a general phenomenon
(Ayedun et. al., 2012).In discussing the issue of building collapse, distinction must be made
between buildings, which fail during construction or within the service life and to those that fail
after the service life, which is usually 25 years (Olusola, 2002: Olusola, et. al., 2011). It can be
deduced that the collapse that causes the greatest loss is that which occurs when a building has
been in use for long a time or shortly after its construction (Oke, 2011).The aim of this project is to
carrying out an empirical assessment of causes of building failures in Nigeria from the perspective
of the stakeholders who are directly involved in the building industry and proffer solutions to the
identified problems.
The Study Area
According to the US Census Bureau (2006), Lagos is the economic hub of Nigeria and the largest
city in Africa with a population of approximate 11 million (UN, World Bank and US Census Bureau
estimates, 1999). It is currently the 7
th
largest city in the world, and with current annual growth
rates of about 6%-8% (i.e. up to 600,000 person per annum or 1,644 people daily) it is projected to
become the 3
rd
largest city in the world by 2015 (US Census Bureau, 2006). It was the former
capital city of Nigeria before it was replaced by Abuja on 12
th
December, 1991 but remains as the
commercial and industrial nerve of the country.
Final Year Project Proposal 2012
AMEEN, M.G 3
Lagos was originally founded as a trading port in 17
th
century by the Portuguese and became
colonial administrative headquarters of the newly formed Nigeria in 1914 and remains the capital
even after independence in 1960 and until 1991 when a new federal capital territory was built in
Abuja. It is the smallest of administrative states in the country in terms of land area occupying only
3.577sq km of mostly coastal plains. The state is surrounded by lagoons which make up about 22%
of the state’s land mass. Metropolitan Lagos itself account for only 37% of the states land area,
but is occupied by than 80% of the state’s population, such that population densities in the state
reaches up to 20,000 person per sq km (Lagos State Government, 2004). Lagos state has 16 Local
Government Councils and 57 Local Government Development Areas.
2.0 AIM AND OBJECTIVES
The aim of this project is to carrying out an empirical assessment of causes of building failures
in Nigeria from the perspective of the stakeholders who are directly involved in the building
industry. The specific objectives to accomplish the aim of the projects are:
 To ascertain the causes of failures in building structures.
 To identify short and long term measures to combat the menace of building failures.
3.0 LITERATURE REVIEW
Structural failures occur all over the world and usually lead to damage of properties and loss of
lives, also asserted that construction workers are three times more likely to be killed and twice as
likely to be injured as workers in other occupation especially during construction (Okeola, 2009).
Building is essentially a space that is protected from the natural environment and is constructed
for a specific usage. A building structure does this by carrying the load imposed on it and
transferring them safely unto the foundation and hence the ground. Generally, structures do fail
over time as a result of human factors such as negligence, design flaws, ageing, material fatigue,
extreme operational and environmental conditions, accidents, terrorist attacks and natural
hazards.
Building failure should not be taken to mean only a structural failure but is also include it’s
non-performing with the requirements expected of it. Failures in building can be defined as a
defective construction, integrated by other factors such as structural, functional, material and
environmental resulting in a short fall in performance occurring at any time in the life of the
product, element or dwelling in which it occurs (Olusola, et. al., 2011). The examples of building
failure includes defects such as cracks in walls, deflection and overturning of beam, etc majority of
these failures arise during construction period or after while others are due to natural
phenomena. Basically, there are three forms of collapse as stated in Olusola, et. al., (2011): Partial
collapse, Progressive collapse, Total and sudden collapse.
According to Richardson (1991), structural failure is caused by imposition of loads in excess of
the capacity of structural components, which result in over-stressing. Overstressing is indicated by
Final Year Project Proposal 2012
AMEEN, M.G 4
evident of distortion, deflection, shear and fracture. If a structure is well designed and constructed
in accordance with the design principles, overstressing may indicate some other inadequacy such
as use of an unsuitable material. (Crocker, 1990: Olusola, et. al., 2011) posited that structural
failure is taken to have occurred when a designed and constructed structure fail to perform the
function they are meant for. Structures are meant for load resisting, be of imposed, dead, or wind
load etc. at whatever condition of exposure which they might be designed for. Whenever these
are lacking, failure will creep into such building.
Olusola, et. al., (2011) emphasizes factors that influence building collapse as technical and non
technical. Generally, buildings like any other property are prone to deterioration that is wear and
tear over time. It follows therefore that no structure can reasonably be expected to last forever.
Hence the need for adequate design work by qualified professionals, a conscious and diligent
quality control checks at periodic intervals during construction works and adequate maintenance
of the structure are required to prolong the life span.
4.0 METHODOLGY
To achieve the objectives of this study, the following approaches would be adopted. The
methodological are in two steps phases: (1) Field data collection and (2) Data Analysis.
4.1 Field Data Collection
 Sourcing for data from Physical Planning and Development Authority in Lagos.
 Administration of questionnaire to the professional in the built environment. These include
Estate Surveyors, Architects, Town Planners, Quantity Surveyors and Engineers,
Contractors and Developers.
 Visitation to sites of construction for collapsed building.
 Taking of photographs of deteriorated and collapsed building.
4.2 Data Analysis
The statistical analysis would be applied to the data. The statistical methods are: Relative
importance index (RII), Pearson product moment coefficient of correlation (r) and linear regression
analysis.
4.2.1 Relative Importance Index (RII)
This method will be adopted to analyze the data in terms of relative importance. The formular
for the analysis is given below:
100 .
5
1
W
X a
IpI
i
i i 


Where
i
a  Constant expressing the width of the i
th
response
i
X  Level of the response given as a percentage of the total response for each variable
Equation 1.0
Final Year Project Proposal 2012
AMEEN, M.G 5
IpI  Importance index
i  Response category index where i  1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and
W  The highest weight
To assist respondents in identifying the level of effect of each variable that could cause failure,
respondents would be asked to rank on a scale of 1 (not at all or not relevant) to 5 (most relevant).
Using these indices, the rank of the variables can be determined. These rankings were used to
compare the relative importance of the variables.
4.2.2 Pearson product moment coefficient of correlation (r)
This analysis is used to assess the causal relationship between building collapse and its cause.
The formular is:
  
   
 

 
 

2 2
y y x x
y y x x
r
 x Number of collapsed building
 y Causes of building collapse
x  Cumulative mean of x
y  Cumulative mean of y
 r Correlation
4.2.1 Linear Regression Analysis
This method of approach will be used to analyze the data obtained and the regression line of
variable X and Y can then be obtained using the equation of the least square method as shown
below:
X a a Y
1 0
  i.e. Regression line of Y on X
Y b b X
1 0
  i.e. Regression line of X on Y
5.0 EXPECTED RESULT
The causes of building failure would be unveil with appreciable certainly and thus find the
short and long term measures to ameliorate the menace.
6.0 TIME FRAME (SCHEDULE)
The project is optimistically estimated to take about seven Months to completion. The Project
Work Breakdown Structure and the Gantt chart of the scheduling using Microsoft Project are
shown in Table 6.1 and Fig 6.1.
Equation 2.0
Final Year Project Proposal 2012
AMEEN, M.G 6
Table 6.1: Project Work Breakdown Structure (WBS)
S/N TASK DURATION
(weeks)
START
DATE
FINISH
DATE
1
Brainstorming of final year project topic 3 16/10/12 05/11/12
2
Writing final year project proposal 8 06/11/12 31/12/12
3
Sourcing for data for collapsed building from Planning and
Development Authority
2 10/12/12 21/12/12
4
Mapping and Geo-information 2 24/12/12 04/01/13
5
Taking of photographs of collapsed building 4 04/02/13 01/03/13
6
Sourcing for data for collapsed building from journals and
internet
2 04/03/13 15/03/13
7
Preparation of questionnaires and administering of the
questionnaires
8 07/01/13 01/03/13
8
Analyzing of the obtained data 4 25/03/13 19/04/13
9
Project Documentation 4 29/04/13 24/05/13
7.0 BUDGETING
This covers the total amount that would be spent from the start of this project till it
completion, it is further itemized in Table 7.1 below.
Table 7.1: Project Cost Expenses
S/N EXPENSES AMOUNT
(N)
1 Printing of final year project
proposal
1000
2 Transportation 7000
3 Browsing the internet 3000
4 Drafting and printing of
questionnaires
2000
5 Project documentation 5000
6 Miscellaneous 2000
TOTAL 20000
Final Year Project Proposal 2012
AMEEN, M.G 7
7.0 REFERENCES
Ayedun, C. A., Durodola, O. D. and Akinjare, O.A. (2012). An empirical ascertainment of the causes
of building failure and collapse in Nigeria. Mediterranean Journal of Social Sciences. 3(1), 313-322.
Bolaji, E. O. (2002). Building materials specification and enforcement on site. In D.R. Ogunsemi
(Ed.)
Oke .A (2011). An Examination of the Causes and Effects of Building Collapse in Nigeria. Journal of
Design and Built Environment. Vol. 9, pp. 37–47
Okeola, O.G. (2009) “Occupational Health and Safety Management in Building Construction”.
Paper delivered at Workshop organized by Kwara State Universal Basic Education Board
(KWSUBEB) Ilorin. Held at NOCBUL Hotel Ilorin, Kwara State. 21st – 22nd April, 2009.
Olusola, K. O., Ojambati T. S and Lawal, A. F (2011) Technological and Non –Technological Factors
Responsible for the Occurrence of Collapse Buildings in South – Western Nigeria. Journal of
Emerging Trends in Engineering and Applied Sciences (JETEAS) 2 (3): 462-469.
Richardson, B. A. (1991): Defects and Deterioration in Building First Edition. London E &FN.
US Census Bureau (2006) State and Country Quick Facts. Retrieved October 18, 2010
(http:l/quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/26/26165.html).
ID Task Name Duration Start Finish Predecessors
1 brainstorming of final
year project topics
3 wks Tue
10/16/12
Mon
11/5/12
2 writing final year
project proposal
8 wks Tue
11/6/12
Mon
12/31/12
1
3 Sourcing for datas for
the rates of callapsed
building in Lagos
2 wks Mon
12/10/12
Fri
12/21/12
4 Mapping and
Geo-information
2 wks Mon
12/24/12
Fri 1/4/13
5 Taking of photgraphs of
collapsed building
4 wks Mon
2/4/13
Fri 3/1/13
6 Sourcing for datas in
the journals and as well
as internet for
collapsed buildings
2 wks Mon
3/4/13
Fri
3/15/13
7 Preparing of
questionaires and
administering of the
questionaires
8 wks Mon
1/7/13
Fri 3/1/13
8 Analysis of the
obtained datas and
information
4 wks Mon
3/25/13
Fri
4/19/13
3,6,7
9 Project Documentation 4 wks Mon
4/29/13
Fri
5/24/13
4,5,8
Project Proposal
Figures on collapsed building
Mapping
Photographs of collapsed building
Figures on collapsed buildings
Questionaires
Calculation aspect
Printing of Projects copy
October ovemb ecemb J anuary ebruar March April May J une J uly August eptemb
Task
Split
Progress
Milestone
Summary
Project Summary
External Tasks
External Milestone
Deadline
7
FIG 6.1 Gantt chart for the schedulling
Project: schedulling of projects 26-12-2
Date: Wed 3/13/13
FINAL YEAR PROJECT PROPOSAL
BY
WUSU, Michael Oladimeji (08/30GB088)
DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL ENGINEERING
UNIVERSITY OF ILORIN, ILORIN, NIGERIA
Project Supervisor: Dr. O.G. Okeola
November 2012
Final Year Project Proposal Wusu, M.O. (08/30GB088) 2012
2 | P a g e
STABILIZATION OF ORGANIC CLAY USING LIME-ADDED SALT IN OKELELE, ILORIN
BY
WUSU, M.O.
Department of Civil Engineering, University of Ilorin, Ilorin, Nigeria.
1.0 INTRODUCTION
The inability of some soils to exhibit certain characteristics in term of strength, texture, size, etc.
are some of the challenges faced by engineers in foundation engineering. These problems are
easily associated with soil in the soft categories. A typical example of this type of soil is clay,
particularly organic clay. Many types of clay have reduced strength due to mechanical disturbance
as a result of earth movement. They also tend to have high compressibility. Hence, construction
on clay soil may result in bearing capacity failure induced by its low shear strength. Therefore clay
has to be improved upon before any engineering work can commence on it (Kassim, 2009).
An important decision as to be made on whether to use the original material on site, or to replace
with one of higher quality or, create a new site material that suite the standard requirement by
altering the properties of the existing material which is known as ‘soil stabilization’. Of all the
options listed, stabilization of soil using lime is the least expensive and most widely used. The use
of lime as a stabilizer is borne out of its ability to increase shear strength and bearing capacity. The
stabilizing effect depends on the reaction between soil mineral and lime.
Lime alone is not an effective stabilizer of clay soil even though lime as been used to stabilize soils
for decades. This is because the organic matter present in clay tends to coat soil particles
preventing the penetration of lime and reducing the effectiveness of lime stabilization.
This study aims at increasing the strength of organic clay found in Okelele in Ilorin, Kwara State.
2.0 OBJECTIVES
The following are the objectives of the study:
 To ascertain the effectiveness of salt-lime combination for clay soil in comparison with
lime–clay soil mixture.
 To determine the percentage increase in strength of clay soil obtained from the two salt
mixtures at different concentration.
Final Year Project Proposal Wusu, M.O. (08/30GB088) 2012
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3.0 LITERATURE REVIEW
Soils which cannot be structurally used for construction purpose without some measure of
stabilization are referred to as ‘weak soil’. In Nigeria organic clay belong to this category. In-situ
derived clays occur in several parts of Ilorin with the largest deposit occurring in the okelele ward
in Ilorin East Local Government Area (Ogunsanwo and Agbasi, 1994). Studies carried out
previously on the effect of soil organic matter on the geotechnical properties of soil show that the
former has a significant effect on the engineering properties of soil.
It has been postulated that if the value of organic content in soils lies between 6 to 20 percent, it
affects the properties of soil but the behavior is still like mineral soils: organic silts/clays and if the
organic content of soils lies in the range of 21 to 74%, it governs the entire properties of the soil.
Study shows that both liquid limit and plastic limit of Illinois soils increase linearly with increase in
organic carbon content. The unconfined compressive strength has been found to generally
decrease with increase in organic content. A study on the artificially prepared organic soil revealed
that its liquid limit and plastic limit linearly increase with organic content. On the other hand, its
plastic limit is nearly a linear function of organic carbon content, while its plasticity index is
independent of organic carbon content. A recent study carried on organic soil revealed that its
specific gravity decreases with increase in organic content (Adeyemo, 2012).
Clay is a weak soil yet cohesive and is found to have it strength varied by decrease in the action of
climate and water content of soil. Organic clay is only slightly different from clay with reference to
the amount of organic matter it contains, which in turn affects the engineering properties. Hence
the bearing capacity and strength of organic clay soil is lower as expected due to its high organic
content. Organic clay contains organic matter such as humid acid and humates. The estimate of
the organic matter content in organic clay is between 20 to 75 percent (Adeyemo, 2012).
Lime is an excellent choice for short-term modification of soil properties. Lime can modify almost
all fine-grained soils, but the most dramatic improvement occurs in clay soils of moderate to high
plasticity. Modification occurs because calcium cations supplied by the hydrated lime replace the
cations normally present on the surface of the clay mineral, promoted by the high pH environment
of the lime-water system. Thus, the clay surface mineralogy is altered, producing the following
benefits: (National Lime Association).
· Plasticity reduction
· Reduction in moisture-holding capacity (drying)
· Swell reduction
· Improved stability
· The ability to construct a solid working platform
Final Year Project Proposal Wusu, M.O. (08/30GB088) 2012
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Special stabilization methods have been classified into three namely mechanical, physical and
chemical stabilizers. Chemical soil stabilization changes soil-water interaction by surface reactions
and therefore modifies the behaviour of organic clay for the intended usage. Chemical methods
include the use of bitumen, calcium salt, cement and lime.
Calcium oxide and calcium hydroxide (slaked or hydrated lime) are the types of lime commonly
used in soil stabilization. Even though quicklime is effective in some case, hydrated lime is widely
used for stabilization. This is because quicklime will corrosively attack equipment and there is also
a risk of severe skin burns.
The three major reactions that give lime treated clay great strength are (I) dehydration of soil, (II)
ion exchange and flocculation and (III) pozzolanic reaction. The addition of salt is to act as a
catalyzer to accelerate as well as help lime to increase the strength of soil. Two types of salt are
commonly used are sodium chloride (NaCl) and calcium chloride (CaCl
2
). The use of salt to
accelerate lime–organic clay reaction is because lime has little effect in highly organic soils .
4.0 STUDY AREA
Ilorin lies approximately on longitude 4
o
35’E and latitude 8
o
30’ N as shown in Fig. 1.The sampling
locality, Okelele is a settlement situated within Ilorin Township in the Ilorin East Local Government
area of Kwara State(Fig. 2) and slightly southwest of the Sobi Hills in kwara State. (Fig. 3) The clay
horizon is rather thin. As a result, the hand dug pits are soon abandoned and new ones dug. The
study area is littered with such pits and in most cases filled with rain water.
FIG 1: Map of Nigeria showing Kwara State.
Final Year Project Proposal Wusu, M.O. (08/30GB088) 2012
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Fig. 2 The Map of Kwara state showing the Ilorin East local Government
FiG 3: Google earth Map showing Okelele,Ilorin
Final Year Project Proposal Wusu, M.O. (08/30GB088) 2012
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5.0 METHODOLOGY
5.1 Field Work
This include site visits to the area and followed by the collection of sample of organic clay. It is
essential to identify accurately materials comprising foundation strata. Soils are identified by
visual examination. A description based on visual examination will include color, odor when
present, size and shape of grains, gradation, and density and consistency characteristics.
5.2 Laboratory Test
There are some tests to be conducted on soil and lime to ensure that the soil is suitable for
stabilization and to determine the amount of lime to be used. Also to be to examined is the
influence of soil stablization on additon of salts(NaCl and CaCl
2
) to lime at different concentration
ranging from 2.5–10 percent (Kassim, 2009).
The test is in two folds. The first is done on soil. This includes the specific gravity, particle size
distribution (seive analysis), Atterberg limit test (plastic limit, liquid limit, plasticity index) and
standard proctor test. The second test will be to determine the appropriate and adequate amount
of lime before stabilization commences. Two set of test are performed on lime, these are initial
consumption of lime (ICL) and available lime content (ALC) (Kassim, 2009).
6.0 BUDGET
This project is estimated to cost the sum of N30, 000
Table 6.0: Project Budget
S/NO ITEMS COST (N)
1 Purchase of Printer 10,000
2 Purchase of Internet Modem 6,000
3 Transportation 3,000
4 Purchase of Lime and Salts 5,000
5 Purchase of printing paper, ink and toner 3,000
6 Other Expenses 3,000
Total 30,000
Final Year Project Proposal Wusu, M.O. (08/30GB088) 2012
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7.0 EXPECTED RESULT
The study will aid in ascertaining further geotechnical properties of clay that will be beneficial in
engineering work such as in embankment, soil exchange in unstable slopes, backfill for bridge
abutments and retaining walls and improvement of soil beneath foundation slab etc.
8.0 PROJECT TIME FRAME
8.1 Project WBS
This project is estimated to take about 5 months to complete. The Project Work Breakdown
structure and Gantt chart for the schedule using Microsoft Project are shown in Table 8.1 and
Figure 8.1
Table6.1: Project Work Break Down schedule
S/NO ACTIVITIES DURATION
1 Sourcing for materials on the project 3 Weeks
2 Reading and Studying of relevant Materials 2 Weeks
on the Project.
3 Site Visitation 1 Week
4 Site Reconnaissance 1 Week
5 Collection of Samples 1 Day
6 Physical study of Samples 1 Week
7 Procurement of Lime and Salt 2 Weeks
8 Preparation of Samples 2 Weeks
9 Practical and Laboratory Activities 6 Weeks
10 Compilation of Results and Data 1 Week
Total 19 weeks
Final Year Project Proposal Wusu, M.O. (08/30GB088) 2012
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9.0 REFERENCES
 Adeyemo, T.E., (2012). Effect of Organic Content on Compaction and Consolidation
Characteristics of Lagos Organic Clay. Paper 184.http://ww.ejge.com/2012/Abs12.184.htm
 Eisazadeh A., Kassim A.K. and Nur H. (2010). Thermal characterization of lime stabilized
soils. 19th World Congress of Soil Science, Soil Solutions for a Changing World. 1 – 6 August
2010, Brisbane, Australia.
 Kassim, K.A. (2009). The effect of catalyst on Soil Stabilization by appilication of Lime.
Researh Vote No: 78104
 National Lime Association (2001). Using Lime for Soil Stabilization and Modification. A
Proven Solution. http://www.lime.org (Accessed November 5, 2012).
 Ogunsanwo O., Agbasi U., Mands E. (1994).Geotechnical and geochemical properties of
some clays occurring in Ilorin, Nigeria and the environmental implication of their mode of
exploitation. Proceedings of Seventh International Congress. International Association of
Engineering Geology, Balkema, Rotterdam. Pp 2741-2746
ID Task Name Duration Start Finish Predecessors
1
Sourcing for materials on the
project
3 wks Tue 10/2/12 Mon 10/22/12
2
Reading and Studying of
relevant Materials on the
projects
2 wks Mon 10/22/12 Fri 11/2/12
3
Site Reconnaissance 1 wk Mon 11/5/12 Fri 11/9/12
2
4
Site Visatation 1 wk Fri 11/9/12 Thu 11/15/12
5
Collection of Sample 1 day Mon 11/19/12 Mon 11/19/12
6
Physical Study of Sample 1 wk Tue 11/20/12 Mon 11/26/12 5
7
Procurement of Lime and Salt 2 wks Tue 11/27/12 Mon 12/10/12 6
8
Preparation of samples 2 wks Tue 12/11/12 Mon 12/24/12 7
9
Pratical and Labouratory
activities
2 wks Wed 1/2/13 Tue 1/15/13
10
Pratical and Labouratory
activities cont'd
3 wks Mon 2/4/13 Fri 2/22/13
11
Compilation of results and
data
4 wks Mon 2/4/13 Fri 3/1/13
2330 7 142128 4 111825 2 9 162330 6 132027 3 101724 3
er October 20 November December January 20 February Ma
Task
Split
Progress
Milestone
Summary
Project Summary
External Tasks
External Milestone
Deadline
7.2 TIME FRAME
FiG. 7.2 PROJECT GANTT CHART
Project: Fig 1
Date: Thu 12/27/12

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