DAILY I FOREX REPORT

8th MAY 2013

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 HEADLINES

 Aussie Plummets As RBA

Unexpectedly Cuts The
Interest Rate
 AUD/USD- Trading the
Reserve Bank of Australia
(RBA) Meetin
TRADING TIPS  Major Currencies May Enter
 BUY EURUSD ABOVE
Consolidation on Absent
Event Risk
1.3115 tgs 1.3135/1.3155
Australian Dollar Sinks as RBA Cuts Key Interest Rate
sl 1.3085 to Record Low
Soft German Factory Orders Report May Damage
Euro on ECB Bets

The Australian Dollar underperformed after the

 BUY USDJPY ABOVE 99.35 Reserve Bank of Australia cut its benchmark interest
rate to a record low at 2.75 percent, as expected. The
tgt 99.55/99.75 SL 99.05 currency slid as much as 0.8 percent on average
against its top counterparts. Traders are now pricing
in another 25bps reduction at the June meeting and at
least one further cut beyond that over the coming 12
months.
 SELL GBPUSD BELOW The economic calendar is relatively quiet in European
trading hours, with Germany’s Factory Orders report
1.5525 Tgt 1.5505/1.5485 amounting to the only bit of noteworthy event risk on
the docket. Expectations call for a 2.9 percent year-
SL 1.5555 on-year decline in March, marking the worst
performance in six months. A soft print may reinforce
overnight comments from ECB President Mario
Draghi, who said the central bank may cut rates again
if needed, and put downward pressure on the Euro.

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  HOURLY EURUSD CHART
HOURLY EURUSD CHART


ANALYSIS
OPEN: 1.3079 EURUSD LOOKS UPWARD
HIGH: 1.3116 TREND: BULLISH
LOW: 1.3079 STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS
CLOSE: 1.3110 MACD =>.0004(BULLISH SIGNAL)
RSI => 65(BULLISH SIGNAL)
 HOURLY USDJPY CHART

ANALYSIS
OPEN: 99.14 USDJPY LOOKS UPWARDS
HIGH: 99.35 TREND: BULLISH
LOW: 99.14 STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS
CLOSE: 99.35 MACD =>.12(BULLISH SIGNAL)
RSI => 59(BULLISH SIGNAL)

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 HOURLY GBPUSD CHART

ANALYSIS
OPEN: 1.5538 GBPUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD
HIGH: 1.5540 TREND: BEARISH
LOW: 1.5522 STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE
CLOSE: 1.5527 MACD =>.0001(BEARISH SIGNAL)
RSI => 38(BEARISH SIGNAL)
 HOURLY EURGBP CHART

ANALYSIS
OPEN: 00.8418 EURGBP LOOKS UPWARDS
HIGH: 00.8449 TREND: BULLISH
LOW: 00.8418 STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS
CLOSE: 00.8449 MACD =>.0002(BULLISH SIGNAL)
RSI => 70(BULLISH SIGNAL)

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 HOURLY USD INDEX CHART

ANALYSIS
OPEN: 82.2990 USDINDEX LOOKS UPWARDS
HIGH: 82.2990 TREND: BULLISH
LOW: 82.1530 STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS
CLOSE: 82.1650 MACD =>.0643(BULLISH SIGNAL)
RSI => 50(BULLISH SIGNAL)

ECONOMIC CALLENDER
Date Time Currency Event Importance Actual Forecast Previous Notes

USD Fed's Pianalto

Sun
May 5
13:30 Gives Commencement Low
Speech in Ohio

Mon CNY Leading Index

May 6
00:23 Medium 99.38 99.98
(MAR)

AUD TD Securities
00:30 Medium 2.1% 2.1%
Inflation (YoY) (APR)

AUD TD Securities
00:30 Low 0.3% 0.2%
Inflation (MoM) (APR)

AUD Retail Sales Ex

01:30 Medium 2.2% 1.7% 0.1%
Inflation(QoQ) (1Q)

AUD Retail Sales s.a.

01:30 Medium -0.4% 0.1% 1.3%
(MoM) (MAR)

AUD ANZ Job

01:30 Advertisements (MoM) Low -1.3% -0.4%
(APR)

CNY HSBC Services

01:45 Medium 51.1 54.3
PMI (APR)

EUR Italian Purchasing

07:45 Manager Index Low 47.0 45.9 45.5
Services (APR)
EUR French
07:50 Purchasing Manager Low 44.3 44.1 44.1
Index Services (APR F)
EUR German
07:55 Purchasing Manager Medium 49.6 49.2 49.2
Index Services (APR F)
EUR Euro-Zone
Purchasing Manager
08:00 Medium 46.9 46.6 46.5
Index Composite (APR
F)
EUR Euro-Zone
08:00 Purchasing Manager Medium 47.0 46.6 46.6
Index Services (APR F)
EUR Euro-Zone Sentix
08:30 Investor Confidence Medium -15.6 -15.2 -17.3
(MAY)

EUR Euro-Zone Retail

09:00 Medium -2.4% -2.2% -1.7%
Sales (YoY) (MAR)

EUR Euro-Zone Retail

09:00 Low -0.1% -0.1% -0.2%
Sales (MoM) (MAR)

EUR German FinMin

09:00 Schaeuble Speaks on Low
European Integration

CAD Building Permits

12:30 Medium 1.0% 1.7%
(MoM) (MAR)

CAD Ivey Purchasing

14:00 Managers Index s.a. Medium 58.0 61.6
(APR)

NZD Average Hourly

22:45 Medium 1.0% -0.4%
Earnings (QoQ) (1Q)

NZD Labor Cost

22:45 Private Sector (QoQ) Low 0.5% 0.6%
(1Q)
 NZD Private Wages ex
22:45 Low 0.5% 0.5%
Overtime (QoQ) (1Q)

GBP BRC Shop Price

23:01 Low 1.4%
Index (YoY) (APR)

GBP Lloyds
23:01 Employment Low -45
Confidence (APR)
AUD AiG Performance
23:30 of Construction Index Medium 39
(APR)

Tue AUD House Price Index

May 7
01:30 Medium 1.8% 1.6%
(QoQ) (1Q)

AUD House Price Index

01:30 Medium 4.0% 2.1%
(YoY) (1Q)

AUD Trade Balance

01:30 (Australian dollar) Medium 0M -178M
(MAR)
AUD Reserve Bank of
04:30 Australia Rate Decision High 3.00% 3.00%
LIVE
(MAY 7)

CHF SECO Consumer

05:45 Medium -2 -6
Confidence (APR)

CHF Unemployment
05:45 Medium 3.1% 3.2%
Rate (APR)

CHF Unemployment
05:45 Medium 3.1% 3.1%
Rate s.a. (APR)

AUD Foreign Reserves

06:30 (Australian dollar) Low A$48.7B
(APR)

CHF Foreign Currency

07:00 Low 435.0B 438.3B
Reserves (APR)

EUR German Factory

10:00 Orders n.s.a. (YoY) Medium -2.9% 0.0%
(MAR)
EUR German Factory
10:00 Orders s.a. (MoM) Low -0.5% 2.3%
(MAR)
USD IBD/TIPP
14:00 Economic Optimism Low 47.3 46.2
(MAY)

USD JOLTs Job

14:00 Low 3925
Openings (MAR)

USD Consumer Credit

19:00 Medium $16.000B $18.139B
(MAR)

GBP BRC Sales Like-

23:01 Low 1.9% 1.9%
For-Like (YoY) (APR)

Wed CNY Trade Balance

May 8
04:00 Medium $15.50B -$0.88B
(USD) (APR)

CNY Exports (YoY)

04:00 Low 10.0% 10.0%
(APR)

CNY Imports (YoY)

04:00 Low 13.0% 14.1%
(APR)
 GBP Halifax House
04:00 Low 1.6% 1.1%
Price (3MoY) (APR)

GBP Halifax Plc House

04:00 Prices s.a. (MoM) Low 0.2% 0.2%
(APR)
GBP New Car
04:00 Registrations (YoY) Low 5.9%
(APR)
CHF CPI - EU
07:15 Harmonised (YoY) Medium -0.3%
(APR)

CHF Consumer Price

07:15 Medium -0.5% -0.6%
Index (YoY) (APR)

CHF CPI - EU
07:15 Harmonised (MoM) Low 0.5%
(APR)

CHF Consumer Price

07:15 Low 0.1% 0.2%
Index (MoM) (APR)

EUR German Industrial

10:00 Production n.s.a. and Medium -3.8% -1.8%
w.d.a. (YoY) (MAR)
EUR German Industrial
10:00 Production s.a. (MoM) Low -0.1% 0.5%
(MAR)

USD MBA Mortgage

11:00 Low 1.8%
Applications (MAY 3)

CAD Housing Starts

12:15 Medium 175.0K 184.0K
(APR)

USD Fed's Stein

12:30 Speaks at Chicago Fed Low
Conference
USD DOE Cushing OK
14:30 Crude Inventory (MAY Low -1382K
3)

USD DOE U.S. Crude

14:30 Low 6696K
Oil Inventories (MAY 3)

USD DOE U.S.

14:30 Distillate Inventory Low 474K
(MAY 3)
USD DOE U.S.
14:30 Gasoline Inventories Low -1818K
(MAY 3)

NZD Unemployment
22:45 High 6.8% 6.9%
Rate (1Q)

NZD Employment
22:45 Medium 1.0% -1.0%
Change (QoQ) (1Q)

NZD Employment
22:45 Medium -0.7% -1.4%
Change (YoY) (1Q)

NZD Participation Rate

22:45 Low 67.9% 67.2%
(QoQ) (1Q)

JPY Official Reserve

23:50 Low $1254.4B
Assets (APR)

Thu NZD QV House Prices

May 9
00:00 Low 6.5%
(YoY) (APR)
01:30 AUD Employment
High 11.0K -36.1K
LIVE Change (APR)

01:30 AUD Unemployment

High 5.6% 5.6%
LIVE Rate (APR)

CNY Consumer Price

01:30 High 2.3% 2.1%
Index (YoY) (APR)

AUD Full Time

01:30 Employment Change Medium -7.4K
(APR)

CNY Producer Price

01:30 Medium -2.3% -1.9%
Index (YoY) (APR)

AUD Part Time

01:30 Employment Change Low -28.7K
(APR)

AUD Participation Rate

01:30 Low 65.1% 65.1%
(APR)

JPY Tokyo Avg Office

02:00 Low 8.56%
Vacancies (APR)

JPY Leading Index

05:00 Medium 97.7 97.6
(MAR P)

JPY Coincident Index

05:00 Low 93.2 92.4
(MAR P)

EUR ECB Publishes

08:00 High
Monthly Report

GBP Industrial
08:30 Production (YoY) Medium -1.6% -2.2%
(MAR)
GBP Manufacturing
08:30 Production (YoY) Medium -2.0% -1.4%
(MAR)
GBP Industrial
08:30 Production (MoM) Low 0.2% 1.0%
(MAR)
GBP Manufacturing
08:30 Production (MoM) Low 0.3% 0.8%
(MAR)

GBP BOE Asset

11:00 High 375B 375B
Purchase Target (MAY)

GBP Bank of England

11:00 High 0.50% 0.50%
Rate Decision (MAY 9)

USD Fed's Lacker

12:00 Speaks on Financial Low
Stability in New York
CAD New Housing
12:30 Price Index (YoY) Medium 2.1% 2.1%
(MAR)

USD Initial Jobless

12:30 Medium 335K 324K
Claims (MAY 4)

CAD New Housing

12:30 Price Index (MoM) Low 0.1% 0.2%
(MAR)

USD Continuing Claims

12:30 Low 3018K 3019K
(APR 27)
 GBP NIESR Gross
14:00 Domestic Product High 0.10%
Estimate (APR)

USD Wholesale
14:00 Medium 0.4% -0.3%
Inventories (MAR)

USD Wholesale Sales

14:00 Low 0.1% 1.7%
(MoM) (MAR)

USD EIA Natural Gas

14:30 Storage Change (MAY Low 43
3)
USD Fed's Plosser
17:15 Speaks on Monetary Low
Policy in New York
NZD NZ Card
22:45 Spending - Retail Medium 0.5% -0.5%
(MoM) (APR)

NZD NZ Card
22:45 Medium -1.2%
Spending (MoM) (APR)

JPY Bank Lending incl

23:50 Medium
Trusts (YoY) (APR)

JPY Trade Balance -

23:50 BOP Basis (Yen) Medium -¥274.0B -¥677.0B
(MAR)
JPY Adjusted Current
23:50 Account Total (Yen) Low ¥480.4B -¥0.1B
(MAR)

JPY Bank Lending

23:50 Low 1.9%
Banks ex-Trust (APR)

JPY Current Account

23:50 Low -5.7% -47.0%
Balance (YoY) (MAR)

JPY Current Account

23:50 Low ¥1216.3B ¥637.4B
Total (Yen) (MAR)

JPY Foreign Buying

23:50 Japan Bonds (Yen) Low
(MAY 3)
JPY Foreign Buying
23:50 Japan Stocks (Yen) Low
(MAY 3)
JPY Japan Buying
23:50 Foreign Bonds (Yen) Low
(MAY 3)
JPY Japan Buying
23:50 Foreign Stocks (Yen) Low
(MAY 3)
GBP G7 Finance
Fri
May 10
Ministers, Central Bank High
Chiefs, Meet in UK

CNY New Yuan Loans

04:00 High 767.5B 1060.0B
(APR)

CNY Aggregate
04:00 Low 1480.0B 2544.3B
Financing (APR)

CNY Money Supply -

04:00 Low 12.0% 12.4%
M0 (YoY) (APR)

CNY Money Supply -

04:00 Low 11.3% 11.9%
M1 (YoY) (APR)
 CNY Money Supply -
04:00 Low 15.5% 15.7%
M2 (YoY) (APR)

JPY Bankruptcies
04:30 Medium -20.0%
(YoY) (APR)

JPY Eco Watchers

05:00 Medium 57.5
Survey: Outlook (APR)

JPY Eco Watchers

05:00 Low 57.3
Survey: Current (APR)

EUR German Trade

06:00 Medium 17.5B 16.8B
Balance (euros) (MAR)

EUR German Current

06:00 Low 19.5B 16.0B
Account (euros) (MAR)

EUR German Exports

06:00 Low 0.5% -1.5%
s.a. (MoM) (MAR)

EUR German Imports

06:00 Low 1.5% -3.9%
s.a. (MoM) (MAR)

GBP Construction
08:30 Medium -6.6% -7.0%
Output (YoY) (MAR)

GBP Visible Trade

08:30 Balance (Pounds) Medium -£9000 -£9416
(MAR)

GBP Construction
08:30 Low 15.0% 5.5%
Output (MoM) (MAR)

GBP Total Trade

08:30 Balance (Pounds) Low -£3100 -£3642
(MAR)
GBP Trade Balance
08:30 Non EU (Pounds) Low -£4000 -£4276
(MAR)
USD Fed's Evans
12:25 Speaks at Chicago Fed Low
Conference

12:30 CAD Net Change in High 15.0K -54.5K

LIVE Employment (APR)

12:30 CAD Unemployment

High 7.20% 7.20%
LIVE Rate (APR)

Full Time Employment

12:30 Medium -54.0K
Change (APR)

Part Time Employment

12:30 Low -0.4K
Change (APR)

Participation Rate
12:30 Low 66.7 66.6
(APR)

Fed's Bernanke Speaks

13:30 at Chicago Fed Medium
Conference

USD Monthly Budget

18:00 Medium $106.0B
Statement (APR)

Fed's George Speaks

18:00 on the Economy in Low
Wyoming
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