Housing Forecast

Market Research Update

St. Louis Region
March 2009
Joe Zanola
MarketGraphics St. Louis Region
9315 Manchester Road
St. Louis, MO 63119
(314) 918-7200
National MarketGraphics© R esearch Markets
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New Home Subdivisions (Started and Projected to Start)
Started & Not Started Developed Average No. of Counted Homes Homes
Homes Under
Report Date Started Subdivision Subdivision Lot Lots Per Started Inventory Finished Not Estimated
Construction
Count Count Inventory Subdivision of Homes Occupied Not Sold

Mar-1998 816 761 16,063 21.11 2,809 1,876 933 917

Jul-1998 758 686 15,878 23.15 2,804 1,984 820 872
Nov-1998 787 708 16,054 22.68 3,144 2,384 760 813
Mar-1999 805 715 17,156 23.99 3,051 2,205 846 948
Jul-1999 833 740 17,049 23.04 3,638 2,740 898 985
Nov-1999 761 666 16,306 24.48 3,516 2,737 779 880
Mar-2000 709 655 16,486 25.17 3,551 2,649 902 968
Jul-2000 719 646 15,667 24.25 3,696 2,684 1,012 1,119
Nov-2000 718 649 15,787 24.33 3,163 2,251 912 912
Mar-2001 719 645 15,512 24.05 2,935 1,990 945 928
Jul-2001 774 674 14,907 22.12 3,749 2,853 896 937
Nov-2001 782 692 14,673 21.20 3,685 2,815 870 978
Mar-2002 775 682 14,474 21.22 3,284 2,336 948 924
Jul-2002 768 661 13,806 20.89 3,612 2,680 932 931
Nov-2002 788 673 14,335 21.30 3,891 2,946 945 976
Mar-2003 813 675 14,222 21.07 4,026 2,955 1,071 1,168
Jul-2003 844 692 14,224 20.55 4,427 3,344 1,083 1,120
Nov-2003 896 734 16,972 23.12 4,940 3,709 1,231 1,324
Mar-2004 980 820 17,189 20.96 5,196 3,634 1,562 1,743
Jul-2004 1,040 869 18,309 21.07 5,822 4,649 1,173 1,293
Nov-2004 1,106 928 19,857 21.40 6,594 5,336 1,258 1,540
Mar-2005 1,132 932 19,892 21.34 6,309 4,613 1,696 1,898
Jul-2005 1,172 968 21,000 21.69 7,394 5,659 1,735 2,016
Nov-2005 1,175 974 22,548 23.15 7,700 5,871 1,829 1,995
Mar-2006 1,198 1,007 23,883 23.72 8,381 6,301 2,080 2,444
Jul-2006 1,205 991 25,256 25.49 8,825 6,607 2,218 2,592
Nov-2006 1,250 1,023 27,784 27.16 8,871 6,464 2,407 2,777
Mar-2007 1,535 1,252 33,579 26.82 8,913 6,104 2,809 3,116
Jul-2007 1,582 1,295 35,336 27.29 9,178 6,291 2,887 2,978
Nov-2007 1,597 1,303 34,810 26.72 9,064 6,176 2,888 3,143
Mar-2008 1,615 1,347 36,350 26.99 8,271 5,323 2,948 3,043
Jul-2008 1,595 1,329 35,484 26.70 7,986 4,952 3,034 2,962
Nov-2008 1,556 1,310 35,751 27.29 6,910 3,593 3,317 3,175
Mar-2009 1,533 1,291 34,998 27.11 5,312 2,394 2,918 2,796

Model Franklin County 14 St. Charles County 256

Home Jefferson County 63 St. Clair County 58
Count: Lincoln County 31 St. Louis City 44
Madison County 19 St. Louis County 113
Monroe County 8 Warren County 10
Total Models or Displays 616
St. Louis Region 10-County Market - 10 Counties
Current Starts 'vs' Closings Trend - March 2009
Permits Field- Yearly Field-
Current Not Preferable Current
Projected counted Permits Current Total counted
MG Sold Homes Not Sold Develope
Area in County for Closings for Versus Homes Under Closings in
Area
Current Last 12
NFU & UCN
Closings Construction
Projected Inventory
Our
d Lot
Inventory Range Inventory
12 Months Months Counted Previous 12
St. Louis City 1 504 453 +51 1,130 567 91 - 113 483 1,673
St. Louis County
North County 2 79 60 34 16 - 20 97 486
North Central 3 258 335 203 52 - 65 230 504
South Central 4 272 403 156 54 - 68 174 543
South County 5 283 92 53 57 - 71 262 1,099
Northwest 6 107 142 88 21 - 27 106 357
Hwy 270 West/Clarkston 7 121 66 38 24 - 30 131 365
West County 8 179 81 46 36 - 45 172 819
St. Louis Total 599 1,299 -700 1,179 618 260 - 325 1,172 4,173
Jefferson County
Northeast 9 289 182 100 58 - 72 339 1,553
Northwest 10 167 70 40 33 - 42 156 1,172
South 11 331 201 92 66 - 83 344 2,811
Jefferson Total 794 787 +7 453 232 157 - 197 839 5,536
St. Charles County
East 13 643 512 249 129 - 161 730 3,403
North Central 14A 1,059 403 261 212 - 265 1,224 3,676
Northwest 14B 334 192 124 67 - 84 386 2,527
South Central 15A 125 163 86 25 - 31 176 979
Southwest 15B 38 22 6 8 - 10 42 182
St. Charles Total 1,623 2,199 -576 1,292 725 440 - 550 2,558 10,767
St. Clair County
North Central 16A 625 248 158 125 - 156 701 3,018
South 16B 238 106 50 48 - 60 260 1,027
St. Clair Total 640 863 -223 354 208 173 - 216 961 4,045
Madison County
South Central 17A 309 240 99 62 - 77 307 1,399
Northwest 17B 84 46 19 17 - 21 79 462
Southeast 17C 29 22 9 6 - 7 34 204
South / East 17D 118 88 39 24 - 30 139 1,107
Madison Total 657 540 +117 396 166 108 - 135 559 3,172
Monroe County
Northern Tip/Columbia 18 61 25 9 12 - 15 50 407
Southern / Waterloo 19 74 45 33 15 - 19 100 519
Monroe Total 136 135 +1 70 42 27 - 34 150 926
Franklin County
Eastern / Washington 20 179 182 93 36 - 45 217 1,161
Western / New Haven 21 26 21 7 5-7 27 213
Franklin Total 336 205 +131 203 100 41 - 51 244 1,374
Warren County
Southern / Marthasville 22 14 10 2 3-4 11 68
Northern / Warrenton 23 324 93 51 65 - 81 298 1,043
Warren Total 108 338 -230 103 53 68 - 85 309 1,111
Lincoln County
Southern / Troy 24 313 126 82 63 - 78 357 1,797
Northern / Silex 25 33 6 3 7-8 24 424
Lincoln Total 319 346 -27 132 85 69 - 87 381 2,221
10-County Total 5,715 7,165 -1,450 5,312 2,796 1433 - 1791 7,656 34,998
Note: We a re currently tra cking 1533 subdivisions. In the last 12 months the se site s produced 7165 closings by our site count me thod.
However, 4926 permits have be en issued in the last 12 months. Some of these never ge t built, some a re for replacing homes torn down or
burned down, and some a re for homes built out in the country on odd lots or in older nearly built-out sites. We believe that these are
substantially pre-sold and therefore add to the closing rate over our field count.
 Home / Lot Count
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Starts
Closings
Finished Unoccupied
St.Louis,MO 10 C ounty MarketGraphics R egion – Novem ber 2003

Under Construction
 Home / Lot Count
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Closings
Finished Unoccupied
St.Louis,MO 10 C ounty MarketGraphics R egion – Novem ber 2004

Under Construction
 Home / Lot Count
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Starts
Closings
Finished Unoccupied
St.Louis,MO 10 C ounty MarketGraphics R egion – Novem ber 2005

Under Construction
 Home / Lot Count
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Starts
Closings
Finished Unoccupied
St.Louis,MO 10 C ounty MarketGraphics R egion – Novem ber 2006

Under Construction
 Home / Lot Count
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Starts
Closings
Finished Unoccupied
St.Louis,MO 10 C ounty MarketGraphics R egion – Novem ber 2007

Under Construction
 Home / Lot Count
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Starts
Closings
St.Louis,MO 10 C ounty MarketGraphics R egion – March 2009

Finished Unoccupied
Under Construction
 Home / Lot Count
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-5,000
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53
St.Louis,MO 10 C ounty MarketGraphics R egion – March 2009

Developed Lots
Change in Developed Lots
 Previous Starts and Housing Forecast
16000

14000

12000

10000

1
8000 1 4
3 8
1 9 7
2 1 1 1
1 9 9 1
1 1 1 2 1 7
6 1 9 1 1 7
1 1 1 1 0 6 9
6000 1 1 1 0
2 0 4
1 1 8 1 1 6 9 3 3
0 2 9 0 9 9 9
0 0 6 0 1 8 0 1 5 2 8 5
6 7 5 7 8
2 2 9 9 1 6 1 9 4 0
0 0 8 5 2 0 0
0 3 8 6 9 8 8 2
5 7 0 6 4 3
9 6 5 8 9
3 4 7 6 4 3 3
7 0
4000 0
0
3
9 5
9 5 5
8 5 5
8 4
2 4 4 0 3 2
8
8 5 9 7 0
2 6
4 0 8
2000 8 0 3 5
6 8

0
1986
1987
1988

1989
1990

1991
1992
1993

1994
1995

1996
1997
1998

1999
2000

2001
2002
2003

2004
2005
2006
2007
2008

2009
2010
2011
2012
2013

2014
 Forecast of Housing Starts by County
County 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

SL City 2,370 1,004 805 489 504 530 571 598 632 611

SL County 2,271 1,662 2,129 564 599 630 680 712 750 727

Jefferson 1,443 1,199 1,040 754 794 835 900 943 996 964

St. Charles 3,683 3,022 2,949 1,486 1,623 1,707 1,840 1,928 2,037 1,971

St. Clair 1,710 1,464 1,028 598 640 673 726 760 803 778

Madison 1,204 870 738 589 657 691 745 780 823 797

Franklin 725 551 375 291 336 113 122 128 136 131

Warren 503 383 342 112 108 336 361 379 400 388

Lincoln 658 602 348 275 319 143 154 161 171 165

Monroe 312 246 229 126 136 354 381 400 422 409

Total 14,879 11,004 9,983 5,284 5,715 6,010 6,480 6,790 7,170 6,940

16,000

14,000

12,000

10,000

8,000

6,000

4,000

2,000

0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
How Can A MarketGraphics
Forecast Help You Succeed?
The Absolute Necessity to Outperform the Market Average

Your Goals by:

1. Demographics—Homebuyers First!

2. Communities and Home Sites

3. New Homes
How Can A MarketGraphics
Forecast Help You Succeed?
The Absolute Necessity to Outperform the Market Average

Demographics—Homebuyers First!
• Employment Trends
• Geographic Trends
• Household Trends
• Homebuyer Trends

What Needs to Change?

 Historical Permits vs. Interest Rates vs. Employment Comparison
St. Louis Region 10-County
Employment by 12-Month Periods

1,350,000
E
m 1,325,000
p
1,300,000
l
o
1,275,000
y
m 1,250,000
e
n 1,225,000
t
1,200,000
Oct. 05

Dec. 05

Feb. 06

Apr. 06

Jun. 06

Aug. 06

Oct. 06

Dec. 06

Feb. 07

Apr. 07

Jun. 07

Aug. 07

Oct. 07

Dec. 07

Feb. 08

Apr. 08

Jun. 08

Aug. 08

Oct. 08
St.L ouis MarketGraphics 10 C ounty A rea
P opulation by A ge T rends
2000 % 2008 % 2013 % %
C ensus E stim ate P rojection C hange
2008-2013
P opulation by A ge 2,546,404 2,670,785 2,743,543 2.72%
A ge 0 to 4 170,042 6.68% 174,373 6.53% 179,348 6.54% 2.85%
A ge 5 to 9 189,815 7.45% 173,087 6.48% 175,102 6.38% 1.16%
A ge 10 to 14 195,134 7.66% 184,098 6.89% 174,534 6.36% -5.20%
A ge 15 to 17 114,779 4.51% 119,521 4.48% 116,010 4.23% -2.94%
A ge 18 to 20 101,319 3.98% 110,574 4.14% 110,713 4.04% 0.13%
A ge 21 to 24 121,500 4.77% 143,065 5.36% 148,508 5.41% 3.80%
A ge 25 to 34 12.75
339,722 13.34% 334,510 12.52% 349,795 % 4.57%
A ge 35 to 44 12.32
422,901 16.61% 371,350 13.90% 338,000 % -8.98%
A ge 45 to 49 186,872 7.34% 214,217 8.02% 196,224 7.15% -8.40%
A ge 50 to 54 158,563 6.23% 199,490 7.47% 211,169 7.70% 5.85%
A ge 55 to 59 121,590 4.77% 172,631 6.46% 194,345 7.08% 12.58%
A ge 60 to 64 96,967 3.81% 131,397 4.92% 165,094 6.02% 25.65%
A ge 65 to 74 171,195 6.72% 175,518 6.57% 209,904 7.65% 19.59%
A ge 75 to 84 114,731 4.51% 117,474 4.40% 118,058 4.30% 0.50%
A ge 85 and over 41,274 1.62% 49,480 1.85% 56,739 2.07% 14.67%
St.Louis MarketGraphics 10 C ounty A rea
H ousehold T rends
2000 % 2008 % 2013 % %
C ensus E stim ate Projection C hange
2008-2013
Non-fam ily H ouseholds 323,842 341,217 352,334 3.26%
1-person household 272,203 84.05% 299,193 87.68% 316,423 89.81% 5.76%
2-person household 43,238 13.35% 34,840 10.21% 29,475 8.37% -15.40%
3-person household 5,694 1.76% 5,058 1.48% 4,576 1.30% -9.53%
4-person household 1,892 0.58% 1,418 0.42% 1,227 0.35% -13.47%
5-person household 537 0.17% 450 0.13% 394 0.11% -12.44%
6-person household 158 0.05% 148 0.04% 126 0.04% -14.86%
7 or m ore person household 120 0.04% 110 0.03% 113 0.03% 2.73%
Fam ily H ouseholds 667,727 716,377 746,376 4.19%
2-person household 273,577 40.97% 301,845 42.13% 322,605 43.22% 6.88%
3-person household 159,390 23.87% 174,948 24.42% 182,471 24.45% 4.30%
4-person household 140,462 21.04% 146,087 20.39% 148,608 19.91% 1.73%
5-person household 62,652 9.38% 62,937 8.79% 62,908 8.43% -0.05%
6-person household 20,724 3.10% 21,113 2.95% 21,071 2.82% -0.20%
7 or m ore person household 10,922 1.64% 9,447 1.32% 8,713 1.17% -7.77%
St.L ouis MarketGraphics 10 C ounty A rea
Incom e T rends
2000 % 2008 % 2013 % %
C ensus E stim ate P rojection C hange
2008-2013
H ouseholds by H ousehold Incom e 992,454 1,057,594 1,098,710 3.89%
Lessthan $15,000 138,422 13.95% 122,068 11.54% 114,478 10.42% -6.22%
$15,000 to $24,999 120,434 12.13% 107,900 10.20% 101,058 9.20% -6.34%
$25,000 to $34,999 126,562 12.75% 116,557 11.02% 109,932 10.01% -5.68%
$35,000 to $49,999 166,447 16.77% 167,552 15.84% 164,090 14.93% -2.07%
$50,000 to $74,999 208,493 21.01% 217,704 20.58% 220,831 20.10% 1.44%
$75,000 to $99,999 110,465 11.13% 137,311 12.98% 148,602 13.53% 8.22%
$100,000 to $149,999 78,816 7.94% 124,168 11.74% 153,861 14.00% 23.91%
$150,000 to $249,999 30,945 3.12% 46,056 4.35% 61,805 5.63% 34.20%
$250,000 to $499,999 8,120 0.82% 12,557 1.19% 16,450 1.50% 31.00%
$500,000 or m ore 3,750 0.38% 5,721 0.54% 7,603 0.69% 32.90%
2008 E stim ated A verage H ousehold Incom e
2008 E stim ated A verage Length ofR esidence
2008 E stim ated A verage O w ner O ccupied H ousing V alue
2008 T op 10 P R IZ M Segm ents – St.Louis,MO 10 C ounty A rea
Segm ent D efinitions

2008 %
H ouseholds
T op 10 P R IZ M 54 M ulti-C ultiM osaic 3.42%
Segm ents 27 M iddleburg M anagers 2.94%
61 C ity R oots 2.79%
39 D om estic D uos 2.75%
13 U pw ard Bound 2.74%
20 Fast-T rack Fam ilies 2.68%

37 M ayberry-ville 2.63%
18 K ids& C ul-de-Sacs 2.60%
30 Suburban Spraw l 2.46%
41 SunsetC ity Blues 2.46%
2008 T op 10 P R IZ M Segm ents – St.Louis,MO 10 C ounty A rea

54 Multi-C ulti Mosaic

A n im m igrantgatew ay com m unity,M ulti-C ultiM osaic isthe urban hom e for a m ixed
populace ofyounger H ispanic,A sian and A frican-A m erican singlesand fam ilies. W ith nearly a
quarter ofthe residentsforeign born,thissegm entisa m eccafor first-generation A m ericans
w ho are striving to im prove their low er-m iddle-classstatus.

27 Middleburg Managers
M iddleburg M anagersarose w hen em pty-nesterssettled in satellite com m unitiesw hich
offered a low er costofliving and m ore relaxed pace. T oday,segm entresidentstend to be
m iddle-classand over 55 yearsold,w ith solid m anagerialjobsand com fortable retirem ents.
In their older hom es,they enjoy reading,playing m usicalinstrum ents,indoor gardening
and refinishing furniture.

61 C ity R oots
Found in urban neighborhoods,C ity R ootsisa segm entoflow er-incom e retirees,
typically living in older hom esand duplexesthey've ow ned for years. In these ethnically
diverse neighborhoods-m ore than a third are A frican-A m erican and H ispanic-residents
are often w idow sand w idow ersliving on fixed incom esand m aintaining low -key
lifestyles.
2008 T op 10 P R IZ M Segm ents – St.Louis,MO 10 C ounty A rea
39 D om estic D uos
D om estic D uosrepresentsa m iddle-classm ix ofm ainly over 55 singlesand m arried couples
living in older suburban hom es. W ith their high-schooleducationsand fixed incom es,
segm entresidentsm aintain an easy-going lifestyle. R esidentslike to socialize by going
bow ling,seeing a play,m eeting atthe localfraternalorder or going outto eat.
13 U pw ard B ound
M ore than any other segm ent,U pw ard Bound appearsto be the hom e ofthose legendary
Soccer M om sand D ads. In these sm allsatellite cities,upper-classfam iliesboastdual
incom es,college degreesand new split-levelsand colonials. R esidentsofU pw ard Bound
tend to be kid-obsessed,w ith heavy purchasesofcom puters,action figures,dolls,board
gam es,bicyclesand cam ping equipm ent.
20 Fast-T rack Fam ilies
W ith their upper-m iddle-classincom es,num erouschildren and spacioushom es,
Fast-T rack Fam iliesare in their prim e acquisition years. T hese m iddle-aged parents
have the disposable incom e and educated sensibility to w antthe bestfor their
children. T hey buy the latesttechnology w ith im punity:new com puters,D V D
players,hom e theater system sand video gam es. T hey take advantage oftheir rustic
localesby cam ping,boating and fishing.
2008 T op 10 P R IZ M Segm ents – St.Louis,MO 10 C ounty A rea
37 Mayberry-ville
Like the old A ndy G riffith show setin a quaintpicturesque berg,M ayberry-ville harks
back to an old-fashioned w ay oflife. In these sm alltow ns,m iddle-classcouplesand fam ilies
like to fish and huntduring the day,and stay hom e and w atch T V atnight. W ith lucrative
blue-collar jobsand m oderately priced housing,residentsuse their discretionary cash to
purchase boats,cam pers,m otorcyclesand pickup trucks.
18 K ids & C ul-de-Sacs
U pscale,suburban,m arried couplesw ith children-that'sthe skinny on K ids& C ul-de-
Sacs,an enviable lifestyle oflarge fam iliesin recently builtsubdivisions. W ith a high rate
ofH ispanic and A sian A m ericans,thissegm entisa refuge for college-educated,w hite-
collar professionalsw ith adm inistrative jobsand upper-m iddle-classincom es. T heir nexus
ofeducation,affluence and children translatesinto large outlaysfor child-centered
productsand services.
30 Suburban Spraw l
Suburban Spraw lisan unusualA m erican lifestyle:a collection ofm idscale,m iddle-aged
singlesand couplesliving in the heartofsuburbia. T ypically m em bersofthe Baby Boom
generation,they hold decentjobs,ow n older hom esand condos,and pursue cocooning
versionsofthe A m erican D ream . A m ong their favorite activitiesare jogging on treadm ills,
playing trivia gam esand renting videos.
2008 T op 10 P R IZ M Segm ents – St.Louis,MO 10 C ounty A rea
41 Sunset C ity B lues
Scattered throughoutthe older neighborhoodsofsm allcities,SunsetC ity Bluesisa
segm entoflow er-m iddle-classsinglesand couplesw ho have retired or are getting closed to
it. T hese em pty-nesterstend to ow n their hom esbuthave m odesteducationsand incom es.
T hey m aintain a low -key lifestyle filled w ith new spapersand television by day,and fam ily-
style restaurantsatnight.
How Can A MarketGraphics
Forecast Help You Succeed?
The Absolute Necessity to Outperform the Market Average

Communities and Home Sites

• Performing/Non Performing Communities
• Developed Lot Supply vs. Demand
• Changing Lot Supply

What Needs to Change?

Developed
Flood

Lot Supply Plain

Total
12-Month
Demand
Started Subdivisions Flood
Plain

with No Starts
by MG Area
No Homes Started in
the Last 4 Months
How Can A MarketGraphics
Forecast Help You Succeed?
The Absolute Necessity to Outperform the Market Average

New Homes
• Pricing and Values
• New Home Supply vs. Demand
• New Home Types
• Changing New Home Supply, Starts, Under Construction,
Finished and Unoccupied
What Needs to Change?
New Homes Dollar Volume Forecast and Average Price of Housing
Forecast of Starts for % Based on Avg. Price for $ Forecast of Dollar % Based on
Price Range
2009 Starts Extension Volume Dollars
Under $175,000 1,105 19.33% $140,000 $154,650,300 10.44%
$175,000 to $225,000 1,615 28.25% $200,000 $322,910,809 21.80%
$225,000 to $275,000 1,384 24.22% $250,000 $346,029,287 23.36%
$275,000 to $325,000 813 14.23% $300,000 $243,924,732 16.47%
$325,000 to $425,000 406 7.11% $375,000 $152,436,280 10.29%
$425,000 to $625,000 228 3.98% $525,000 $119,523,145 8.07%
$625,000 to $925,000 116 2.03% $775,000 $89,908,808 6.07%
Over $925,000 48 0.85% $1,075,000 $52,062,383 3.51%

Totals 5,715 100% $1,481,445,743 100%

(Total Dollar Volume / Total

Forecast of Starts) Forecast average price of new homes: $259,221

Forecast of Starts

30% 28.25%

24.22%
25%

19.33%
20%

14.23%
15%

10%
7.11%

5% 3.98%
2.03%
0.85%
0%
Under $175,000 to $225,000 to $275,000 to $325,000 to $425,000 to $625,000 to Over
$175,000 $225,000 $275,000 $325,000 $425,000 $625,000 $925,000 $925,000
 Flood
Plain

Average Price of New

Homes by County
Based on Closings
(i.e. People Moving In)
Market Share by County
St. Louis Region (Based on permits issued)

St. Charles

St. Louis County

40% St. Clair

35% Jefferson

30% St. Louis City

25% Madison

20% Franklin

15% Lincoln
10% Warren
5%
Monroe
0%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

County / City 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

St. Charles 33.02% 29.29% 24.75% 27.34% 29.54% 28.12% 36.90%
St. Louis County 14.57% 14.09% 15.26% 15.04% 21.33% 10.67% 10.71%
St. Clair 9.52% 11.01% 11.49% 13.25% 10.30% 11.32% 10.12%
Jefferson 13.08% 10.64% 9.70% 10.85% 10.42% 14.27% 10.12%
St. Louis City 2.91% 11.42% 15.93% 9.52% 8.06% 9.25% 10.71%
Madison 11.24% 9.76% 8.09% 7.87% 7.39% 11.15% 4.76%
Franklin 4.89% 4.39% 4.87% 4.99% 3.76% 5.51% 7.14%
Lincoln 4.68% 4.11% 4.42% 5.44% 3.49% 5.20% 5.95%
Warren 3.12% 3.04% 3.38% 3.46% 3.43% 2.12% 1.19%
Monroe 2.96% 2.25% 2.10% 2.23% 2.29% 2.38% 2.38%
100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
 Building Permit Summary

JAN THRU JAN THRU

2006 BUILDING PERMITS JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN TOT DEC TOT
ST. LOUIS CITY AREA 1 108 74 86 60 95 58 131 98 121 118 48 51 108 1048
ST. LOUIS COUNTY AREAS 2-8 83 61 131 108 145 94 67 76 674 59 80 77 83 1655
JEFFERSON COUNTY AREAS 9-11 79 122 137 124 104 118 97 110 84 84 73 62 79 1194
ST. CHARLES COUNTY AREAS 13-15B 227 239 313 299 349 289 296 289 181 159 214 154 227 3009
ST. CLAIR COUNTY AREAS 16A-16B 142 104 106 134 123 166 149 147 121 99 94 73 142 1458
MADISON COUNTY AREAS 17A-17D 50 67 76 72 85 85 64 81 85 80 62 59 50 866
FRANKLIN COUNTY AREAS 20-21 29 41 67 90 67 56 36 48 33 34 18 30 29 549
WARREN COUNTY AREAS 22-23 32 33 37 55 50 44 21 19 32 19 28 11 32 381
LINCOLN COUNTY AREAS 24-25 56 45 61 63 56 61 51 55 56 47 33 15 56 599
MONROE COUNTY AREAS 18-19 19 20 23 28 27 26 16 30 20 17 13 6 19 245
TOTALS 2006 825 806 1037 1033 1101 997 928 953 1407 716 663 538 825 11004

JAN THRU JAN THRU

2007 BUILDING PERMITS JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN TOT DEC TOT
ST. LOUIS CITY AREA 1 66 136 58 63 79 75 59 44 43 54 55 73 66 805
ST. LOUIS COUNTY AREAS 2-8 150 202 212 210 192 202 199 172 225 150 140 75 150 2129
JEFFERSON COUNTY AREAS 9-11 55 64 96 91 112 113 84 136 63 78 100 48 55 1040
ST. CHARLES COUNTY AREAS 13-15B 245 206 253 295 288 302 306 238 219 241 248 108 245 2949
ST. CLAIR COUNTY AREAS 16A-16B 93 87 129 98 115 100 90 80 66 70 51 49 93 1028
MADISON COUNTY AREAS 17A-17D 56 59 91 70 90 67 73 54 59 40 45 34 56 738
FRANKLIN COUNTY AREAS 20-21 17 26 22 35 33 38 49 36 48 36 27 8 17 375
WARREN COUNTY AREAS 22-23 30 26 36 28 25 44 33 23 35 31 22 9 30 342
LINCOLN COUNTY AREAS 24-25 33 26 30 23 49 17 36 47 26 30 21 10 33 348
MONROE COUNTY AREAS 18-19 21 17 28 25 27 20 22 19 13 23 10 4 21 229
TOTALS 2007 766 849 955 938 1010 978 951 849 797 753 719 418 766 9983
 Building Permit Summary

JAN THRU JAN THRU

2008 BUILDING PERMITS JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN TOT DEC TOT
ST. LOUIS CITY AREA 1 73 102 105 24 31 20 26 55 14 28 6 5 73 489
ST. LOUIS COUNTY AREAS 2-8 66 53 43 56 58 59 71 37 31 38 31 21 66 564
JEFFERSON COUNTY AREAS 9-11 87 70 93 85 90 77 83 41 41 43 24 20 87 754
ST. CHARLES COUNTY AREAS 13-15B 149 126 149 222 141 124 131 110 93 134 43 64 149 1486
ST. CLAIR COUNTY AREAS 16A-16B 63 60 49 47 76 55 48 40 38 59 23 40 63 598
MADISON COUNTY AREAS 17A-17D 31 40 61 66 61 40 59 92 51 38 33 17 31 589
FRANKLIN COUNTY AREAS 20-21 13 16 23 22 32 38 16 26 25 19 25 36 13 291
WARREN COUNTY AREAS 22-23 21 11 9 11 16 9 7 4 7 10 5 2 21 112
LINCOLN COUNTY AREAS 24-25 10 21 18 33 23 40 25 21 18 26 23 17 10 275
MONROE COUNTY AREAS 18-19 13 10 9 14 11 8 16 10 12 10 8 5 13 126
TOTALS 2008 526 509 559 580 539 470 482 436 330 405 221 227 526 5284

JAN THRU CURRENT

2009 BUILDING PERMITS JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN TOT Y-T-D
ST. LOUIS CITY AREA 1 18 18 18
ST. LOUIS COUNTY AREAS 2-8 18 18 18
JEFFERSON COUNTY AREAS 9-11 17 17 17
ST. CHARLES COUNTY AREAS 13-15B 62 62 62
ST. CLAIR COUNTY AREAS 16A-16B 17 17 17
MADISON COUNTY AREAS 17A-17D 8 8 8
FRANKLIN COUNTY AREAS 20-21 12 12 12
WARREN COUNTY AREAS 22-23 2 2 2
LINCOLN COUNTY AREAS 24-25 10 10 10
MONROE COUNTY AREAS 18-19 4 4 4
TOTALS 2009 168 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 168 168
Historical New Home Supply vs. Demand - Entire 10-county market
Only active subdivision data, not homes built on odd lots
(Only active subdivision data, not homes built on odd lots)
12000

10000

8000

6000

4000

2000

0
3/05 - 7/05 - 11/05 - 3/06 - 7/06 - 11/06 - 3/07 - 7/07 - 11/07 - 3/08 - Next 12
3/06 7/06 11/06 3/07 7/07 11/07 3/08 7/08 11/08 3/09 Mos

Closings Net Inv. 20% Closings 30% Closings Gross Inv Manageable Gross Inventory

3/05 - 7/05 - 11/05 - 3/06 - 7/06 - 11/06 - 3/07 - 7/07 - 11/07 - 3/08 -
Next 12 Mos
3/06 7/06 11/06 3/07 7/07 11/07 3/08 7/08 11/08 3/09
Closings 10028 10185 9629 9319 9251 9429 9060 8074 7656 7165 6534
Net Inv. 2443.8 2592.5 2776.8 3116.4 2977.5 3142.8 3043.0 2961.6 3174.7 2795.9
30% Closings 3008.4 3055.5 2888.7 2795.7 2775.3 2828.7 2718.0 2422.2 2296.8 2149.5 1960.2
20% Closings 2005.6 2037.0 1925.8 1863.8 1850.2 1885.8 1812.0 1614.8 1531.2 1433.0 1306.8
Gross Inv 8381 8825 8871 8913 9178 9064 8271 7986 6910 5312
The best Net Inventory should fall under the 20% of annual sales range. Above 30% is a problem. This chart has columns
representing sales and Net Inventory Not Sold with the 20% to 30% caution inventory range shown by the 2 crossing lines.
Net Inventory - The estimated or projected number of homes which are not under contract.
Next 12 Mos - The activity anticipated to occur in the subdivisions tracked based mostly on what has happened.
Counted Inventory – New Homes
MG Areas 1 – St. Louis City
Total
Max Preferred NFU Today 53.6 53.7 48.5 46.4 34.6 22.6 16.9 3.1 279.5
NFU 12 Months Back 33.4 85.1 59.4 43.6 21.8 7.2 2.3 0.3 253.0
NFU 8 Months Back 52.2 111.2 92.8 62.4 35.6 11.7 2.8 0.3 369.0
NFU 4 Months Back 99.6 246.4 225.5 168.1 102.9 40.0 11.3 0.3 894.0
Current NFU 108.3 139.7 125.4 117.6 51.2 20.2 13.3 1.3 577.0

250.0
N
u
m 200.0
108.3
b 139.7
e H
150.0
r o 125.4
m 117.6
o e 100.0 51.2
f s
135.5 20.2
N 50.0 104.5 13.3
e 76.5 72.3
60.9 55.2
w 39.6
1.3
8.5
0.0
Under 175 175/225 225/275 275/325 325/425 425/625 625/925 925+
New Home and Lot Combined Price Ranges

Max NFU Preferred % 22% 22% 24% 26% 28% 30% 32% 32%

Under Construction Finished Unoccupied Including Models (i.e.) NFU

Tracked subdivision demand, not "Forecast" demand

Under 175 175/225 225/275 275/325 325/425 425/625 625/925 925+ Total
COUNTED INVENTORY 243.8 244.2 201.9 178.5 123.5 75.4 52.9 9.8 1130.0
NOT SOLD INVENTORY 97.5 139.7 125.4 117.6 51.2 20.2 13.3 2.0 566.8
PROJ. MONTHLY DEMAND 15.9 15.9 13.2 11.6 8.0 4.9 3.4 0.7 73.6
NO. MONTHS SUPPLY 6.1 8.8 9.5 10.2 6.4 4.1 3.9 2.9 7.7
2 to 2.4 months supply or lower is ideal Note: In late 2008, in MG Area 1, some units changed to rentals
Historical New Home Supply vs. Demand
MG Areas 1 – St. Louis City
(Only active subdivision data, not homes built on odd lots)
3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0
3/05 - 7/05 - 11/05 - 3/06 - 7/06 - 11/06 - 3/07 - 7/07 - 11/07 - 3/08 - Next 12
3/06 7/06 11/06 3/07 7/07 11/07 3/08 7/08 11/08 3/09 Mos

Closings Net Inv. 20% Closings 30% Closings Gross Inv Manageable Gross Inventory
3/05 - 7/05 - 11/05 - 3/06 - 7/06 - 11/06 - 3/07 - 7/07 - 11/07 - 3/08 -
Next 12 Mos
3/06 7/06 11/06 3/07 7/07 11/07 3/08 7/08 11/08 3/09
Closings 760 833 737 759 912 983 881 660 483 453 883
Net Inv. 444.8 523.4 510.2 477.0 437.3 431.0 426.0 408.5 886.0 566.8
30% Closings 228.0 249.9 221.1 227.7 273.6 294.9 264.3 198.0 144.9 135.9 264.9
20% Closings 152.0 166.6 147.4 151.8 182.4 196.6 176.2 132.0 96.6 90.6 176.6
Gross Inv 2224 2617 2551 2385 2190 2155 2130 1915 1872 1130
The best Net Inventory should fall under the 20% of annual sales range. Above 30% is a problem. This chart has columns
representing sales and Net Inventory Not Sold with the 20% to 30% caution inventory range shown by the 2 crossing lines.
Net Inventory - The estimated or projected number of homes which are not under contract.
Next 12 Mos - The activity anticipated to occur in the subdivisions tracked based mostly on what has happened.
Counted Inventory – New Homes
MG Areas 2 thru 8 – St. Louis County

Total
Max Preferred NFU Today 53.4 68.6 49.8 22.5 19.6 36.6 28.8 15.4 294.8
NFU 12 Months Back 95.5 105.0 72.7 64.1 56.5 64.3 39.2 16.8 514.0
NFU 8 Months Back 107.4 117.1 84.2 61.5 50.0 59.4 38.0 14.6 532.0
NFU 4 Months Back 99.9 176.0 115.9 56.1 54.3 78.6 61.0 31.4 673.0
Current NFU 106.0 173.8 122.2 52.6 47.5 79.5 62.8 32.7 677.0

350.0
N
u 300.0
m
b 250.0
e H 173.8
r o 200.0 106.0
m
o e 150.0 122.2
f s
100.0
79.5
N 136.9 138.0 52.6 62.8
e 50.0 85.5 47.5
32.7
w 33.9 42.7
22.5 27.2 15.5
0.0
Under 175 175/225 225/275 275/325 325/425 425/625 625/925 925+
New Home and Lot Combined Price Ranges

Max NFU Preferred % 22% 22% 24% 26% 28% 30% 32% 32%

Under Construction Finished Unoccupied Including Models (i.e.) NFU

Tracked subdivision demand, not "Forecast" demand

Under 175 175/225 225/275 275/325 325/425 425/625 625/925 925+ Total
COUNTED INVENTORY 242.9 311.8 207.7 86.5 69.9 122.2 90.0 48.2 1179.0
NOT SOLD INVENTORY 99.0 167.1 104.9 45.4 42.3 71.6 59.1 28.1 617.6
PROJ. MONTHLY DEMAND 21.7 23.3 15.9 9.3 9.1 12.1 8.5 4.7 104.6
NO. MONTHS SUPPLY 4.6 7.2 6.6 4.9 4.7 5.9 7.0 6.0 5.9
2 to 2.4 months supply or lower is ideal
Historical New Home Supply vs. Demand
MG Area 2 thru 8 – St. Louis County
(Only active subdivision data, not homes built on odd lots)
2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
3/05 - 7/05 - 11/05 - 3/06 - 7/06 - 11/06 - 3/07 - 7/07 - 11/07 - 3/08 - Next 12
3/06 7/06 11/06 3/07 7/07 11/07 3/08 7/08 11/08 3/09 Mos

Closings Net Inv. 20% Closings 30% Closings Gross Inv Manageable Gross Inventory

3/05 - 7/05 - 11/05 - 3/06 - 7/06 - 11/06 - 3/07 - 7/07 - 11/07 - 3/08 -
Next 12 Mos
3/06 7/06 11/06 3/07 7/07 11/07 3/08 7/08 11/08 3/09
Closings 1834 1793 1723 1729 1691 1620 1417 1244 1172 1299 1255
Net Inv. 493.8 561.6 506.7 451.2 486.7 509.2 523.3 529.1 637.7 617.6
30% Closings 550.2 537.9 516.9 518.7 507.3 486.0 425.1 373.2 351.6 389.7 376.5
20% Closings 366.8 358.6 344.6 345.8 338.2 324.0 283.4 248.8 234.4 259.8 251.0
Gross Inv 1830 1796 1782 1515 1692 1841 1743 1662 1527 1179
The best Net Inventory should fall under the 20% of annual sales range. Above 30% is a problem. This chart has columns
representing sales and Net Inventory Not Sold with the 20% to 30% caution inventory range shown by the 2 crossing lines.
Net Inventory - The estimated or projected number of homes which are not under contract.
Next 12 Mos - The activity anticipated to occur in the subdivisions tracked based mostly on what has happened.
Historical New Home Supply vs. Demand
MG Area 2 – North St. Louis County
(Only active subdivision data, not homes built on odd lots)
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
3/05 - 7/05 - 11/05 - 3/06 - 7/06 - 11/06 - 3/07 - 7/07 - 11/07 - 3/08 - Next 12
3/06 7/06 11/06 3/07 7/07 11/07 3/08 7/08 11/08 3/09 Mos

Closings Net Inv. 20% Closings 30% Closings Gross Inv Manageable Gross Inventory
3/05 - 7/05 - 11/05 - 3/06 - 7/06 - 11/06 - 3/07 - 7/07 - 11/07 - 3/08 -
Next 12 Mos
3/06 7/06 11/06 3/07 7/07 11/07 3/08 7/08 11/08 3/09
Closings 473 455 399 375 345 282 209 145 97 79 63
Net Inv. 78.6 92.5 84.5 57.6 46.6 48.0 45.2 45.2 38.3 33.7
30% Closings 141.9 136.5 119.7 112.5 103.5 84.6 62.7 43.5 29.1 23.7 18.9
20% Closings 94.6 91.0 79.8 75.0 69.0 56.4 41.8 29.0 19.4 15.8 12.6
Gross Inv 264 239 219 163 133 113 88 75 63 60
The best Net Inventory should fall under the 20% of annual sales range. Above 30% is a problem. This chart has columns
representing sales and Net Inventory Not Sold with the 20% to 30% caution inventory range shown by the 2 crossing lines.
Net Inventory - The estimated or projected number of homes which are not under contract.
Next 12 Mos - The activity anticipated to occur in the subdivisions tracked based mostly on what has happened.
Historical New Home Supply vs. Demand
MG Area 3 – Center / North St. Louis County
(Only active subdivision data, not homes built on odd lots)
600

500

400

300

200

100

0
3/05 - 7/05 - 11/05 - 3/06 - 7/06 - 11/06 - 3/07 - 7/07 - 11/07 - 3/08 - Next 12
3/06 7/06 11/06 3/07 7/07 11/07 3/08 7/08 11/08 3/09 Mos

Closings Net Inv. 20% Closings 30% Closings Gross Inv Manageable Gross Inventory

3/05 - 7/05 - 11/05 - 3/06 - 7/06 - 11/06 - 3/07 - 7/07 - 11/07 - 3/08 -
Next 12 Mos
3/06 7/06 11/06 3/07 7/07 11/07 3/08 7/08 11/08 3/09
Closings 141 171 192 207 254 265 243 204 230 258 276
Net Inv. 87.9 95.1 112.6 97.6 109.4 102.1 109.8 126.5 190.0 202.6
30% Closings 42.3 51.3 57.6 62.1 76.2 79.5 72.9 61.2 69.0 77.4 82.8
20% Closings 28.2 34.2 38.4 41.4 50.8 53.0 48.6 40.8 46.0 51.6 55.2
Gross Inv 427 440 512 458 418 412 415 416 400 335
The best Net Inventory should fall under the 20% of annual sales range. Above 30% is a problem. This chart has columns
representing sales and Net Inventory Not Sold with the 20% to 30% caution inventory range shown by the 2 crossing lines.
Net Inventory - The estimated or projected number of homes which are not under contract.
Next 12 Mos - The activity anticipated to occur in the subdivisions tracked based mostly on what has happened.
Historical New Home Supply vs. Demand
MG Area 4 – Center / South St. Louis County
(Only active subdivision data, not homes built on odd lots)
700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0
3/05 - 7/05 - 11/05 - 3/06 - 7/06 - 11/06 - 3/07 - 7/07 - 11/07 - 3/08 - Next 12
3/06 7/06 11/06 3/07 7/07 11/07 3/08 7/08 11/08 3/09 Mos

Closings Net Inv. 20% Closings 30% Closings Gross Inv Manageable Gross Inventory
3/05 - 7/05 - 11/05 - 3/06 - 7/06 - 11/06 - 3/07 - 7/07 - 11/07 - 3/08 -
Next 12 Mos
3/06 7/06 11/06 3/07 7/07 11/07 3/08 7/08 11/08 3/09
Closings 194 251 247 193 156 152 145 139 174 272 333
Net Inv. 93.8 114.0 97.0 71.8 80.5 112.2 135.0 121.1 165.5 155.7
30% Closings 58.2 75.3 74.1 57.9 46.8 45.6 43.5 41.7 52.2 81.6 99.9
20% Closings 38.8 50.2 49.4 38.6 31.2 30.4 29.0 27.8 34.8 54.4 66.6
Gross Inv 360 365 394 349 396 554 601 574 516 403
The best Net Inventory should fall under the 20% of annual sales range. Above 30% is a problem. This chart has columns
representing sales and Net Inventory Not Sold with the 20% to 30% caution inventory range shown by the 2 crossing lines.
Net Inventory - The estimated or projected number of homes which are not under contract.
Next 12 Mos - The activity anticipated to occur in the subdivisions tracked based mostly on what has happened.
Historical New Home Supply vs. Demand
MG Area 5 – South St. Louis County
(Only active subdivision data, not homes built on odd lots)
600

500

400

300

200

100

0
3/05 - 7/05 - 11/05 - 3/06 - 7/06 - 11/06 - 3/07 - 7/07 - 11/07 - 3/08 - Next 12
3/06 7/06 11/06 3/07 7/07 11/07 3/08 7/08 11/08 3/09 Mos

Closings Net Inv. 20% Closings 30% Closings Gross Inv Manageable Gross Inventory

3/05 - 7/05 - 11/05 - 3/06 - 7/06 - 11/06 - 3/07 - 7/07 - 11/07 - 3/08 -
Next 12 Mos
3/06 7/06 11/06 3/07 7/07 11/07 3/08 7/08 11/08 3/09
Closings 487 417 431 466 469 423 352 313 262 283 223
Net Inv. 120.6 125.0 100.2 85.0 102.7 111.2 92.7 104.0 95.2 53.1
30% Closings 146.1 125.1 129.3 139.8 140.7 126.9 105.6 93.9 78.6 84.9 66.9
20% Closings 97.4 83.4 86.2 93.2 93.8 84.6 70.4 62.6 52.4 56.6 44.6
Gross Inv 373 386 306 196 282 275 221 205 186 92
The best Net Inventory should fall under the 20% of annual sales range. Above 30% is a problem. This chart has columns
representing sales and Net Inventory Not Sold with the 20% to 30% caution inventory range shown by the 2 crossing lines.
Net Inventory - The estimated or projected number of homes which are not under contract.
Next 12 Mos - The activity anticipated to occur in the subdivisions tracked based mostly on what has happened.
Historical New Home Supply vs. Demand
MG Area 6 – Northwest St. Louis County
(Only active subdivision data, not homes built on odd lots)
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
3/05 - 7/05 - 11/05 - 3/06 - 7/06 - 11/06 - 3/07 - 7/07 - 11/07 - 3/08 - Next 12
3/06 7/06 11/06 3/07 7/07 11/07 3/08 7/08 11/08 3/09 Mos

Closings Net Inv. 20% Closings 30% Closings Gross Inv Manageable Gross Inventory
3/05 - 7/05 - 11/05 - 3/06 - 7/06 - 11/06 - 3/07 - 7/07 - 11/07 - 3/08 -
Next 12 Mos
3/06 7/06 11/06 3/07 7/07 11/07 3/08 7/08 11/08 3/09
Closings 61 74 89 88 84 79 118 123 106 107 126
Net Inv. 16.5 17.8 21.6 28.5 46.4 39.0 37.3 45.7 46.6 88.4
30% Closings 18.3 22.2 26.7 26.4 25.2 23.7 35.4 36.9 31.8 32.1 37.8
20% Closings 12.2 14.8 17.8 17.6 16.8 15.8 23.6 24.6 21.2 21.4 25.2
Gross Inv 78 89 90 115 164 187 152 134 138 142
The best Net Inventory should fall under the 20% of annual sales range. Above 30% is a problem. This chart has columns
representing sales and Net Inventory Not Sold with the 20% to 30% caution inventory range shown by the 2 crossing lines.
Net Inventory - The estimated or projected number of homes which are not under contract.
Next 12 Mos - The activity anticipated to occur in the subdivisions tracked based mostly on what has happened.
Historical New Home Supply vs. Demand
MG Area 7 – Center / West St. Louis County
(Only active subdivision data, not homes built on odd lots)
180

160

140

120

100
80

60

40

20

0
3/05 - 7/05 - 11/05 - 3/06 - 7/06 - 11/06 - 3/07 - 7/07 - 11/07 - 3/08 - Next 12
3/06 7/06 11/06 3/07 7/07 11/07 3/08 7/08 11/08 3/09 Mos

Closings Net Inv. 20% Closings 30% Closings Gross Inv Manageable Gross Inventory

3/05 - 7/05 - 11/05 - 3/06 - 7/06 - 11/06 - 3/07 - 7/07 - 11/07 - 3/08 -
Next 12 Mos
3/06 7/06 11/06 3/07 7/07 11/07 3/08 7/08 11/08 3/09
Closings 108 101 97 151 152 166 142 127 131 121 96
Net Inv. 24.2 50.9 37.4 34.5 41.6 42.1 54.2 37.6 58.8 37.7
30% Closings 32.4 30.3 29.1 45.3 45.6 49.8 42.6 38.1 39.3 36.3 28.8
20% Closings 21.6 20.2 19.4 30.2 30.4 33.2 28.4 25.4 26.2 24.2 19.2
Gross Inv 113 110 112 90 146 145 107 109 102 66
The best Net Inventory should fall under the 20% of annual sales range. Above 30% is a problem. This chart has columns
representing sales and Net Inventory Not Sold with the 20% to 30% caution inventory range shown by the 2 crossing lines.
Net Inventory - The estimated or projected number of homes which are not under contract.
Next 12 Mos - The activity anticipated to occur in the subdivisions tracked based mostly on what has happened.
Historical New Home Supply vs. Demand
MG Area 8 – West St. Louis County
(Only active subdivision data, not homes built on odd lots)
400

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

0
3/05 - 7/05 - 11/05 - 3/06 - 7/06 - 11/06 - 3/07 - 7/07 - 11/07 - 3/08 - Next 12
3/06 7/06 11/06 3/07 7/07 11/07 3/08 7/08 11/08 3/09 Mos

Closings Net Inv. 20% Closings 30% Closings Gross Inv Manageable Gross Inventory
3/05 - 7/05 - 11/05 - 3/06 - 7/06 - 11/06 - 3/07 - 7/07 - 11/07 - 3/08 -
Next 12 Mos
3/06 7/06 11/06 3/07 7/07 11/07 3/08 7/08 11/08 3/09
Closings 370 324 268 249 231 253 208 193 172 179 138
Net Inv. 72.3 66.2 53.4 76.2 59.3 54.4 49.1 49.0 43.3 46.4
30% Closings 111.0 97.2 80.4 74.7 69.3 75.9 62.4 57.9 51.6 53.7 41.4
20% Closings 74.0 64.8 53.6 49.8 46.2 50.6 41.6 38.6 34.4 35.8 27.6
Gross Inv 215 167 149 144 153 155 159 149 122 81
The best Net Inventory should fall under the 20% of annual sales range. Above 30% is a problem. This chart has columns
representing sales and Net Inventory Not Sold with the 20% to 30% caution inventory range shown by the 2 crossing lines.
Net Inventory - The estimated or projected number of homes which are not under contract.
Next 12 Mos - The activity anticipated to occur in the subdivisions tracked based mostly on what has happened.
Counted Inventory – New Homes
MG Areas 9 thru 11 – Jefferson County
Total
Max Preferred NFU Today 26.4 26.6 30.8 17.3 3.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 106.0
NFU 12 Months Back 53.1 67.7 81.2 41.4 11.5 1.1 0.0 0.0 256.0
NFU 8 Months Back 69.9 77.0 86.7 45.4 9.6 0.5 0.0 0.0 289.0
NFU 4 Months Back 44.5 65.4 82.0 40.8 7.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 240.0
Current NFU 49.4 72.0 74.4 36.9 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 241.0

140.0
N
u 120.0
m
b 100.0
49.4
e H 74.4
72.0
r o 80.0
m
o e 60.0
f s 36.9
40.0
70.8
N 54.2
48.9
e 20.0
29.5
w 8.4
0.0 5.5 0.0
2.7 0.0
0.6 0.0
Under 175 175/225 225/275 275/325 325/425 425/625 625/925 925+
New Home and Lot Combined Price Ranges

Max NFU Preferred % 22% 22% 24% 26% 28% 30% 32% 32%

Under Construction Finished Unoccupied Including Models (i.e.) NFU

Tracked subdivision demand, not "Forecast" demand

Under 175 175/225 225/275 275/325 325/425 425/625 625/925 925+ Total
COUNTED INVENTORY 120.2 120.8 128.5 66.4 13.9 2.7 0.6 0.0 453.0
NOT SOLD INVENTORY 45.4 68.1 74.4 36.9 6.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 232.2
PROJ. MONTHLY DEMAND 11.5 17.0 14.2 7.2 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.1 52.2
NO. MONTHS SUPPLY 3.9 4.0 5.2 5.1 3.9 1.3 1.4 0.0 4.5
2 to 2.4 months supply or lower is ideal
Historical New Home Supply vs. Demand
MG Area 9 thru 11 – Jefferson County
(Only active subdivision data, not homes built on odd lots)
1400

1200

1000

800

600

400

200

0
3/05 - 7/05 - 11/05 - 3/06 - 7/06 - 11/06 - 3/07 - 7/07 - 11/07 - 3/08 - Next 12
3/06 7/06 11/06 3/07 7/07 11/07 3/08 7/08 11/08 3/09 Mos

Closings Net Inv. 20% Closings 30% Closings Gross Inv Manageable Gross Inventory

3/05 - 7/05 - 11/05 - 3/06 - 7/06 - 11/06 - 3/07 - 7/07 - 11/07 - 3/08 -
Next 12 Mos
3/06 7/06 11/06 3/07 7/07 11/07 3/08 7/08 11/08 3/09
Closings 1318 1327 1247 1105 1000 952 849 776 839 787 626
Net Inv. 204.7 210.7 251.3 238.1 213.0 243.5 248.1 282.9 228.6 232.2
30% Closings 395.4 398.1 374.1 331.5 300.0 285.6 254.7 232.8 251.7 236.1 187.8
20% Closings 263.6 265.4 249.4 221.0 200.0 190.4 169.8 155.2 167.8 157.4 125.2
Gross Inv 614 679 596 539 553 553 547 621 498 453
The best Net Inventory should fall under the 20% of annual sales range. Above 30% is a problem. This chart has columns
representing sales and Net Inventory Not Sold with the 20% to 30% caution inventory range shown by the 2 crossing lines.
Net Inventory - The estimated or projected number of homes which are not under contract.
Next 12 Mos - The activity anticipated to occur in the subdivisions tracked based mostly on what has happened.
Counted Inventory – New Homes
MG Areas 13 thru 15B – St. Charles County
Total
Max Preferred NFU Today 48.4 80.8 70.5 54.0 33.8 17.7 5.9 1.6 312.7
NFU 12 Months Back 104.1 208.6 216.6 172.4 90.9 46.3 13.1 1.1 853.0
NFU 8 Months Back 120.3 247.4 235.3 172.3 87.2 39.6 9.8 1.2 913.0
NFU 4 Months Back 101.4 191.0 181.8 139.3 77.1 35.9 8.4 1.2 736.0
Current NFU 108.9 201.5 179.6 135.4 71.3 32.9 8.1 1.5 739.0

400.0
N
u 350.0
m
300.0
b
201.5
e H 250.0
r o
m 200.0 179.6
o e 108.9
f s 150.0 135.4
100.0
N 166.0 71.3
e 50.0 111.1 114.3
72.4 32.9
w 49.6 8.1
26.0 10.2 1.5
3.6
0.0
Under 175 175/225 225/275 275/325 325/425 425/625 625/925 925+
New Home and Lot Combined Price Ranges

Max NFU Preferred % 22% 22% 24% 26% 28% 30% 32% 32%

Under Construction Finished Unoccupied Including Models (i.e.) NFU

Tracked subdivision demand, not "Forecast" demand

Under 175 175/225 225/275 275/325 325/425 425/625 625/925 925+ Total
COUNTED INVENTORY 220.0 367.4 293.9 207.8 120.8 58.9 18.3 5.1 1292.0
NOT SOLD INVENTORY 98.0 201.5 179.5 135.3 71.3 32.3 6.0 1.1 725.0
PROJ. MONTHLY DEMAND 21.8 43.1 37.8 27.7 13.8 6.3 1.9 0.6 152.9
NO. MONTHS SUPPLY 4.5 4.7 4.8 4.9 5.2 5.1 3.1 1.8 4.7
2 to 2.4 months supply or lower is ideal
Historical New Home Supply vs. Demand
MG Areas 13 thru 15B - St. Charles County
(Only active subdivision data, not homes built on odd lots)
4000

3500

3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0
3/05 - 7/05 - 11/05 - 3/06 - 7/06 - 11/06 - 3/07 - 7/07 - 11/07 - 3/08 - Next 12
3/06 7/06 11/06 3/07 7/07 11/07 3/08 7/08 11/08 3/09 Mos

Closings Net Inv. 20% Closings 30% Closings Gross Inv Manageable Gross Inventory
3/05 - 7/05 - 11/05 - 3/06 - 7/06 - 11/06 - 3/07 - 7/07 - 11/07 - 3/08 -
Next 12 Mos
3/06 7/06 11/06 3/07 7/07 11/07 3/08 7/08 11/08 3/09
Closings 3658 3752 3555 3428 3051 2861 2770 2583 2558 2199 1835
Net Inv. 803.1 729.9 854.9 818.1 833.5 980.4 820.9 858.7 693.7 725.0
30% Closings 1097.4 1125.6 1066.5 1028.4 915.3 858.3 831.0 774.9 767.4 659.7 550.5
20% Closings 731.6 750.4 711.0 685.6 610.2 572.2 554.0 516.6 511.6 439.8 367.0
Gross Inv 2121 2068 2217 1962 2271 2339 1808 1853 1516 1292
The best Net Inventory should fall under the 20% of annual sales range. Above 30% is a problem. This chart has columns
representing sales and Net Inventory Not Sold with the 20% to 30% caution inventory range shown by the 2 crossing lines.
Net Inventory - The estimated or projected number of homes which are not under contract.
Next 12 Mos - The activity anticipated to occur in the subdivisions tracked based mostly on what has happened.
Historical New Home Supply vs. Demand
MG Area 13 – East St. Charles County
(Only active subdivision data, not homes built on odd lots)
1200

1000

800

600

400

200

0
3/05 - 7/05 - 11/05 - 3/06 - 7/06 - 11/06 - 3/07 - 7/07 - 11/07 - 3/08 - Next 12
3/06 7/06 11/06 3/07 7/07 11/07 3/08 7/08 11/08 3/09 Mos

Closings Net Inv. 20% Closings 30% Closings Gross Inv Manageable Gross Inventory

3/05 - 7/05 - 11/05 - 3/06 - 7/06 - 11/06 - 3/07 - 7/07 - 11/07 - 3/08 -
Next 12 Mos
3/06 7/06 11/06 3/07 7/07 11/07 3/08 7/08 11/08 3/09
Closings 995 1102 1041 1108 978 880 785 704 730 643 578
Net Inv. 149.1 182.9 266.0 212.1 231.6 244.5 253.2 242.7 271.3 248.5
30% Closings 298.5 330.6 312.3 332.4 293.4 264.0 235.5 211.2 219.0 192.9 173.4
20% Closings 199.0 220.4 208.2 221.6 195.6 176.0 157.0 140.8 146.0 128.6 115.6
Gross Inv 636 661 788 689 791 780 692 703 651 512
The best Net Inventory should fall under the 20% of annual sales range. Above 30% is a problem. This chart has columns
representing sales and Net Inventory Not Sold with the 20% to 30% caution inventory range shown by the 2 crossing lines.
Net Inventory - The estimated or projected number of homes which are not under contract.
Next 12 Mos - The activity anticipated to occur in the subdivisions tracked based mostly on what has happened.
Historical New Home Supply vs. Demand
MG Area 14A – North / Central St. Charles County
(Only active subdivision data, not homes built on odd lots)
1800

1600
1400

1200
1000

800
600

400
200

0
3/05 - 7/05 - 11/05 - 3/06 - 7/06 - 11/06 - 3/07 - 7/07 - 11/07 - 3/08 - Next 12
3/06 7/06 11/06 3/07 7/07 11/07 3/08 7/08 11/08 3/09 Mos

Closings Net Inv. 20% Closings 30% Closings Gross Inv Manageable Gross Inventory

3/05 - 7/05 - 11/05 - 3/06 - 7/06 - 11/06 - 3/07 - 7/07 - 11/07 - 3/08 -
Next 12 Mos
3/06 7/06 11/06 3/07 7/07 11/07 3/08 7/08 11/08 3/09
Closings 1616 1525 1526 1423 1366 1320 1318 1261 1224 1059 826
Net Inv. 319.2 297.7 365.3 412.0 394.9 472.8 332.5 381.9 230.7 260.6
30% Closings 484.8 457.5 457.8 426.9 409.8 396.0 395.4 378.3 367.2 317.7 247.8
20% Closings 323.2 305.0 305.2 284.6 273.2 264.0 263.6 252.2 244.8 211.8 165.2
Gross Inv 772 832 921 802 935 936 634 693 473 403
The best Net Inventory should fall under the 20% of annual sales range. Above 30% is a problem. This chart has columns
representing sales and Net Inventory Not Sold with the 20% to 30% caution inventory range shown by the 2 crossing lines.
Net Inventory - The estimated or projected number of homes which are not under contract.
Next 12 Mos - The activity anticipated to occur in the subdivisions tracked based mostly on what has happened.
Historical New Home Supply vs. Demand
MG Area 14B – Northwest St. Charles County
(Only active subdivision data, not homes built on odd lots)
700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0
3/05 - 7/05 - 11/05 - 3/06 - 7/06 - 11/06 - 3/07 - 7/07 - 11/07 - 3/08 - Next 12
3/06 7/06 11/06 3/07 7/07 11/07 3/08 7/08 11/08 3/09 Mos

Closings Net Inv. 20% Closings 30% Closings Gross Inv Manageable Gross Inventory

3/05 - 7/05 - 11/05 - 3/06 - 7/06 - 11/06 - 3/07 - 7/07 - 11/07 - 3/08 -
Next 12 Mos
3/06 7/06 11/06 3/07 7/07 11/07 3/08 7/08 11/08 3/09
Closings 616 642 628 546 504 417 426 378 386 334 262
Net Inv. 227.8 186.1 160.7 147.9 145.2 164.3 124.8 143.6 106.4 124.3
30% Closings 184.8 192.6 188.4 163.8 151.2 125.1 127.8 113.4 115.8 100.2 78.6
20% Closings 123.2 128.4 125.6 109.2 100.8 83.4 85.2 75.6 77.2 66.8 52.4
Gross Inv 434 420 336 300 323 336 247 235 190 192
The best Net Inventory should fall under the 20% of annual sales range. Above 30% is a problem. This chart has columns
representing sales and Net Inventory Not Sold with the 20% to 30% caution inventory range shown by the 2 crossing lines.
Net Inventory - The estimated or projected number of homes which are not under contract.
Next 12 Mos - The activity anticipated to occur in the subdivisions tracked based mostly on what has happened.
Historical New Home Supply vs. Demand
MG Area 15A – South / Central St. Charles County
(Only active subdivision data, not homes built on odd lots)
450

400

350

300

250

200

150

100
50

0
3/05 - 7/05 - 11/05 - 3/06 - 7/06 - 11/06 - 3/07 - 7/07 - 11/07 - 3/08 - Next 12
3/06 7/06 11/06 3/07 7/07 11/07 3/08 7/08 11/08 3/09 Mos

Closings Net Inv. 20% Closings 30% Closings Gross Inv Manageable Gross Inventory

3/05 - 7/05 - 11/05 - 3/06 - 7/06 - 11/06 - 3/07 - 7/07 - 11/07 - 3/08 -
Next 12 Mos
3/06 7/06 11/06 3/07 7/07 11/07 3/08 7/08 11/08 3/09
Closings 391 426 306 292 164 206 206 215 176 125 142
Net Inv. 93.4 55.5 55.0 38.0 47.8 87.3 99.0 82.3 77.7 85.6
30% Closings 117.3 127.8 91.8 87.6 49.2 61.8 61.8 64.5 52.8 37.5 42.6
20% Closings 78.2 85.2 61.2 58.4 32.8 41.2 41.2 43.0 35.2 25.0 28.4
Gross Inv 228 123 135 136 188 248 206 192 176 163
The best Net Inventory should fall under the 20% of annual sales range. Above 30% is a problem. This chart has columns
representing sales and Net Inventory Not Sold with the 20% to 30% caution inventory range shown by the 2 crossing lines.
Net Inventory - The estimated or projected number of homes which are not under contract.
Next 12 Mos - The activity anticipated to occur in the subdivisions tracked based mostly on what has happened.
Historical New Home Supply vs. Demand
MG Area 15B – Southwest St. Charles County
(Only active subdivision data, not homes built on odd lots)
70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0
3/05 - 7/05 - 11/05 - 3/06 - 7/06 - 11/06 - 3/07 - 7/07 - 11/07 - 3/08 - Next 12
3/06 7/06 11/06 3/07 7/07 11/07 3/08 7/08 11/08 3/09 Mos

Closings Net Inv. 20% Closings 30% Closings Gross Inv Manageable Gross Inventory
3/05 - 7/05 - 11/05 - 3/06 - 7/06 - 11/06 - 3/07 - 7/07 - 11/07 - 3/08 -
Next 12 Mos
3/06 7/06 11/06 3/07 7/07 11/07 3/08 7/08 11/08 3/09
Closings 40 57 54 59 39 38 35 25 42 38 27
Net Inv. 13.5 7.6 7.8 8.1 13.9 11.5 11.4 8.2 7.5 6.0
30% Closings 12.0 17.1 16.2 17.7 11.7 11.4 10.5 7.5 12.6 11.4 8.1
20% Closings 8.0 11.4 10.8 11.8 7.8 7.6 7.0 5.0 8.4 7.6 5.4
Gross Inv 51 32 37 35 34 39 29 30 26 22
The best Net Inventory should fall under the 20% of annual sales range. Above 30% is a problem. This chart has columns
representing sales and Net Inventory Not Sold with the 20% to 30% caution inventory range shown by the 2 crossing lines.
Net Inventory - The estimated or projected number of homes which are not under contract.
Next 12 Mos - The activity anticipated to occur in the subdivisions tracked based mostly on what has happened.
Counted Inventory - New Homes
MG Areas 16A and 16B – St. Clair County
Total
Max Preferred NFU Today 15.6 19.8 23.2 14.1 8.0 3.0 1.2 0.0 84.9
NFU 12 Months Back 60.1 106.8 120.5 58.1 20.2 8.8 3.6 0.0 378.0
NFU 8 Months Back 53.1 77.2 92.8 41.6 16.9 9.4 3.9 0.2 295.0
NFU 4 Months Back 46.4 72.8 90.8 36.2 15.0 7.8 4.0 0.2 273.0
Current NFU 42.4 60.6 63.0 31.8 14.5 6.2 2.7 0.0 221.0

100.0
N 90.0
u
m 80.0
b 70.0
e H 63.0
60.0 60.6
r o
m 50.0 42.4
o e 40.0 31.8
f s
30.0
N 20.0 14.5
e 28.6 29.4 33.7
10.0 22.6
w 14.1 6.2
3.7 2.7
1.1
0.0 0.0
Under 175 175/225 225/275 275/325 325/425 425/625 625/925 925+
New Home and Lot Combined Price Ranges

Max NFU Preferred % 22% 22% 24% 26% 28% 30% 32% 32%

Under Construction Finished Unoccupied Including Models (i.e.) NFU

Tracked subdivision demand, not "Forecast" demand

Under 175 175/225 225/275 275/325 325/425 425/625 625/925 925+ Total
COUNTED INVENTORY 71.0 89.9 96.6 54.3 28.6 9.9 3.8 0.0 354.0
NOT SOLD INVENTORY 35.6 56.4 63.0 31.8 14.5 5.7 1.4 0.0 208.2
PROJ. MONTHLY DEMAND 8.3 14.9 18.1 8.5 4.2 1.4 0.9 0.2 56.4
NO. MONTHS SUPPLY 4.3 3.8 3.5 3.7 3.5 4.0 1.5 0.0 3.7
2 to 2.4 months supply or lower is ideal
Historical New Home Supply vs. Demand
MG Areas 16A and 16B – St. Clair County
(Only active subdivision data, not homes built on odd lots)
1800

1600

1400

1200

1000
800

600

400
200

0
3/05 - 7/05 - 11/05 - 3/06 - 7/06 - 11/06 - 3/07 - 7/07 - 11/07 - 3/08 - Next 12
3/06 7/06 11/06 3/07 7/07 11/07 3/08 7/08 11/08 3/09 Mos

Closings Net Inv. 20% Closings 30% Closings Gross Inv Manageable Gross Inventory

3/05 - 7/05 - 11/05 - 3/06 - 7/06 - 11/06 - 3/07 - 7/07 - 11/07 - 3/08 -
Next 12 Mos
3/06 7/06 11/06 3/07 7/07 11/07 3/08 7/08 11/08 3/09
Closings 1454 1509 1531 1492 1431 1391 1299 1209 961 863 677
Net Inv. 281.8 327.1 374.2 398.5 313.7 291.6 358.1 267.7 247.9 208.2
30% Closings 436.2 452.7 459.3 447.6 429.3 417.3 389.7 362.7 288.3 258.9 203.1
20% Closings 290.8 301.8 306.2 298.4 286.2 278.2 259.8 241.8 192.2 172.6 135.4
Gross Inv 908 950 983 894 800 722 689 655 505 354
The best Net Inventory should fall under the 20% of annual sales range. Above 30% is a problem. This chart has columns
representing sales and Net Inventory Not Sold with the 20% to 30% caution inventory range shown by the 2 crossing lines.
Net Inventory - The estimated or projected number of homes which are not under contract.
Next 12 Mos - The activity anticipated to occur in the subdivisions tracked based mostly on what has happened.
Counted Inventory – New Homes
MG Areas 17A thru 17D – Madison County
Total
Max Preferred NFU Today 14.7 25.9 26.8 14.6 6.3 4.9 1.2 0.4 94.7
NFU 12 Months Back 19.3 83.4 71.0 29.3 16.1 10.8 1.6 0.6 232.0
NFU 8 Months Back 17.9 76.1 68.3 32.0 15.6 9.8 1.8 0.7 222.0
NFU 4 Months Back 16.2 57.9 54.4 25.5 8.6 5.5 0.9 0.1 169.0
Current NFU 25.8 51.1 49.0 25.7 11.3 8.3 1.5 0.4 173.0

120.0
N
u 100.0
m 51.1
b 49.0
e H 80.0
r o
m 60.0
o e 25.8
f s 25.7
40.0
66.6 62.9
N
20.0 41.1 11.3
e 30.4 8.3
w 11.2 7.9 1.5
2.4 0.4
0.0 0.7
Under 175 175/225 225/275 275/325 325/425 425/625 625/925 925+
New Home and Lot Combined Price Ranges

Max NFU Preferred % 22% 22% 24% 26% 28% 30% 32% 32%

Under Construction Finished Unoccupied Including Models (i.e.) NFU

Tracked subdivision demand, not "Forecast" demand

Under 175 175/225 225/275 275/325 325/425 425/625 625/925 925+ Total
COUNTED INVENTORY 66.9 117.7 111.9 56.1 22.4 16.2 3.8 1.1 396.0
NOT SOLD INVENTORY 22.6 48.3 49.0 25.7 10.9 8.3 0.9 0.3 166.0
PROJ. MONTHLY DEMAND 4.8 13.0 10.4 5.0 1.9 1.2 0.3 0.2 36.8
NO. MONTHS SUPPLY 4.7 3.7 4.7 5.1 5.7 7.1 2.8 2.0 4.5
2 to 2.4 months supply or lower is ideal
Historical New Home Supply vs. Demand
MG Areas 17A thru 17D – Madison County
(Only active subdivision data, not homes built on odd lots)
1200

1000

800

600

400

200

0
3/05 - 7/05 - 11/05 - 3/06 - 7/06 - 11/06 - 3/07 - 7/07 - 11/07 - 3/08 - Next 12
3/06 7/06 11/06 3/07 7/07 11/07 3/08 7/08 11/08 3/09 Mos

Closings Net Inv. 20% Closings 30% Closings Gross Inv Manageable Gross Inventory
3/05 - 7/05 - 11/05 - 3/06 - 7/06 - 11/06 - 3/07 - 7/07 - 11/07 - 3/08 -
Next 12 Mos
3/06 7/06 11/06 3/07 7/07 11/07 3/08 7/08 11/08 3/09
Closings 1004 971 836 806 733 744 631 554 559 540 441
Net Inv. 215.7 239.8 279.5 279.1 241.8 205.7 226.1 216.1 160.9 166.0
30% Closings 301.2 291.3 250.8 241.8 219.9 223.2 189.3 166.2 167.7 162.0 132.3
20% Closings 200.8 194.2 167.2 161.2 146.6 148.8 126.2 110.8 111.8 108.0 88.2
Gross Inv 684 715 742 704 681 542 527 532 410 396
The best Net Inventory should fall under the 20% of annual sales range. Above 30% is a problem. This chart has columns
representing sales and Net Inventory Not Sold with the 20% to 30% caution inventory range shown by the 2 crossing lines.
Net Inventory - The estimated or projected number of homes which are not under contract.
Next 12 Mos - The activity anticipated to occur in the subdivisions tracked based mostly on what has happened.
Counted Inventory – New Homes
MG Areas 18 thru 19 - Monroe County
Total
Max Preferred NFU Today 3.1 5.0 3.6 2.4 2.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 16.7
NFU 12 Months Back 11.6 20.4 22.0 10.8 2.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 67.0
NFU 8 Months Back 12.7 17.6 18.8 9.4 2.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 61.0
NFU 4 Months Back 8.1 13.9 10.2 7.0 2.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 42.0
Current NFU 10.6 17.1 11.1 6.5 2.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 48.0

25.0
N
u
m 20.0
b
e H
15.0
r o 17.1
m
o e 10.0
f s 10.6 11.1

6.5 2.5
N 5.0
e
5.7 4.6
w 3.5 3.7 2.7 0.2
0.0 1.4 0.1
0.5 0.0
Under 175 175/225 225/275 275/325 325/425 425/625 625/925 925+
New Home and Lot Combined Price Ranges

Max NFU Preferred % 22% 22% 24% 26% 28% 30% 32% 32%

Under Construction Finished Unoccupied Including Models (i.e.) NFU

Tracked subdivision demand, not "Forecast" demand

Under 175 175/225 225/275 275/325 325/425 425/625 625/925 925+ Total
COUNTED INVENTORY 14.1 22.7 14.8 9.1 7.1 1.6 0.6 0.0 70.0
NOT SOLD INVENTORY 8.5 15.7 10.1 4.8 2.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 42.0
PROJ. MONTHLY DEMAND 1.3 2.3 2.5 1.5 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 8.8
NO. MONTHS SUPPLY 6.8 7.0 4.0 3.2 2.5 1.9 1.4 0.0 4.8
2 to 2.4 months supply or lower is ideal
Historical New Home Supply vs. Demand
MG Areas 18 thru 19 - Monroe County
(Only active subdivision data, not homes built on odd lots)
250

200

150

100

50

0
3/06 - 7/06 - 11/06 - 3/07 - 7/07 - 11/07 - 3/08 - Next 12
3/07 7/07 11/07 3/08 7/08 11/08 3/09 Mos

Closings Net Inv. 20% Closings 30% Closings Gross Inv Manageable Gross Inventory

3/06 - 7/06 - 11/06 - 3/07 - 7/07 - 11/07 - 3/08 -

Next 12 Mos
3/07 7/07 11/07 3/08 7/08 11/08 3/09
Closings na na na 0 97 168 217 162 150 135 106
Net Inv. na na na 67.8 68.5 53.2 60.2 58.0 39.7 42.0
30% Closings na na na 0.0 29.1 50.4 65.1 48.6 45.0 40.5 31.8
20% Closings na na na 0.0 19.4 33.6 43.4 32.4 30.0 27.0 21.2
Gross Inv na na na 164 176 127 125 105 86 70
The best Net Inventory should fall under the 20% of annual sales range. Above 30% is a problem. This chart has columns
representing sales and Net Inventory Not Sold with the 20% to 30% caution inventory range shown by the 2 crossing lines.
Net Inventory - The estimated or projected number of homes which are not under contract.
Next 12 Mos - The activity anticipated to occur in the subdivisions tracked based mostly on what has happened.
Counted Inventory – New Homes
MG Areas 20 thru 21 - Franklin County
Total
Max Preferred NFU Today 14.1 11.0 11.9 6.1 3.0 1.4 0.2 0.0 47.7
NFU 12 Months Back 32.6 37.5 35.3 19.6 11.3 6.6 0.2 0.0 143.0
NFU 8 Months Back 34.5 33.3 32.3 17.0 9.4 5.1 0.5 0.1 132.0
NFU 4 Months Back 36.3 30.5 30.3 11.8 6.2 3.6 0.3 0.0 119.0
Current NFU 24.4 26.8 27.6 13.0 5.8 3.1 0.4 0.0 101.0

70.0
N
u 60.0
m
50.0 24.4
b
e H
r o 40.0
m 26.8 27.6
o e 30.0
f s
20.0 39.6
13.0
N
e 10.0 23.0 22.1
5.8
w 10.4 3.1
5.0 1.7 0.4
0.0 0.2 0.0
Under 175 175/225 225/275 275/325 325/425 425/625 625/925 925+
New Home and Lot Combined Price Ranges

Max NFU Preferred % 22% 22% 24% 26% 28% 30% 32% 32%

Under Construction Finished Unoccupied Including Models (i.e.) NFU

Tracked subdivision demand, not "Forecast" demand

Under 175 175/225 225/275 275/325 325/425 425/625 625/925 925+ Total
COUNTED INVENTORY 64.0 49.8 49.7 23.4 10.8 4.8 0.6 0.0 203.0
NOT SOLD INVENTORY 24.4 26.8 27.5 13.0 5.8 2.4 0.1 0.0 99.9
PROJ. MONTHLY DEMAND 4.4 3.3 3.3 2.0 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.1 14.3
NO. MONTHS SUPPLY 5.5 8.2 8.3 6.5 7.7 7.1 1.4 0.0 7.0
2 to 2.4 months supply or lower is ideal
Historical New Home Supply vs. Demand
MG Areas 20 thru 21 - Franklin County
(Only active subdivision data, not homes built on odd lots)
350

300

250

200

150

100

50

0
3/06 - 7/06 - 11/06 - 3/07 - 7/07 - 11/07 - 3/08 - Next 12
3/07 7/07 11/07 3/08 7/08 11/08 3/09 Mos

Closings Net Inv. 20% Closings 30% Closings Gross Inv Manageable Gross Inventory
3/06 - 7/06 - 11/06 - 3/07 - 7/07 - 11/07 - 3/08 -
Next 12 Mos
3/07 7/07 11/07 3/08 7/08 11/08 3/09
Closings na na na 0 102 195 285 246 244 205 171
Net Inv. na na na 141.9 147.2 158.4 138.2 125.4 115.3 99.9
30% Closings na na na 0.0 30.6 58.5 85.5 73.8 73.2 61.5 51.3
20% Closings na na na 0.0 20.4 39.0 57.0 49.2 48.8 41.0 34.2
Gross Inv na na na 295 293 298 267 265 203 203
The best Net Inventory should fall under the 20% of annual sales range. Above 30% is a problem. This chart has columns
representing sales and Net Inventory Not Sold with the 20% to 30% caution inventory range shown by the 2 crossing lines.
Net Inventory - The estimated or projected number of homes which are not under contract.
Next 12 Mos - The activity anticipated to occur in the subdivisions tracked based mostly on what has happened.
Counted Inventory – New Homes
MG Areas 22 thru 23 - Warren County
Total
Max Preferred NFU Today 13.7 6.3 1.6 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.0 23.2
NFU 12 Months Back 40.0 23.6 8.4 1.7 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 74.0
NFU 8 Months Back 37.8 21.0 6.2 1.7 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 67.0
NFU 4 Months Back 41.8 19.3 4.5 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.0 67.0
Current NFU 30.8 16.7 3.0 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.0 52.0

70.0
N
u 60.0
m
b 50.0
e H 30.8
r o 40.0
m
o e 30.0
f s
20.0 16.7
N 31.3
e 10.0
w 11.9 3.0
3.6 0.7
1.7 0.4 0.2 0.2
0.0 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.0
Under 175 175/225 225/275 275/325 325/425 425/625 625/925 925+
New Home and Lot Combined Price Ranges

Max NFU Preferred % 22% 22% 24% 26% 28% 30% 32% 32%

Under Construction Finished Unoccupied Including Models (i.e.) NFU

Tracked subdivision demand, not "Forecast" demand

Under 175 175/225 225/275 275/325 325/425 425/625 625/925 925+ Total
COUNTED INVENTORY 62.1 28.6 6.6 2.4 1.3 1.0 1.1 0.0 103.0
NOT SOLD INVENTORY 31.4 16.9 3.1 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.0 53.0
PROJ. MONTHLY DEMAND 12.8 7.8 1.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 22.4
NO. MONTHS SUPPLY 2.4 2.2 2.9 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.5 0.0 2.4
2 to 2.4 months supply or lower is ideal
Historical New Home Supply vs. Demand
MG Areas 22 thru 23 - Warren County
(Only active subdivision data, not homes built on odd lots)
400

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

0
3/06 - 7/06 - 11/06 - 3/07 - 7/07 - 11/07 - 3/08 - Next 12
3/07 7/07 11/07 3/08 7/08 11/08 3/09 Mos

Closings Net Inv. 20% Closings 30% Closings Gross Inv Manageable Gross Inventory
3/06 - 7/06 - 11/06 - 3/07 - 7/07 - 11/07 - 3/08 -
Next 12 Mos
3/07 7/07 11/07 3/08 7/08 11/08 3/09
Closings na na na 0 64 198 270 262 309 338 269
Net Inv. na na na 68.5 65.3 90.3 73.9 65.2 68.0 53.0
30% Closings na na na 0.0 19.2 59.4 81.0 78.6 92.7 101.4 80.7
20% Closings na na na 0.0 12.8 39.6 54.0 52.4 61.8 67.6 53.8
Gross Inv na na na 129 155 160 142 134 126 103
The best Net Inventory should fall under the 20% of annual sales range. Above 30% is a problem. This chart has columns
representing sales and Net Inventory Not Sold with the 20% to 30% caution inventory range shown by the 2 crossing lines.
Net Inventory - The estimated or projected number of homes which are not under contract.
Next 12 Mos - The activity anticipated to occur in the subdivisions tracked based mostly on what has happened.
Counted Inventory – New Homes
MG Areas 24 thru 25 - Lincoln County
Total
Max Preferred NFU Today 10.3 9.0 7.0 2.5 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 30.4
NFU 12 Months Back 56.5 60.7 35.6 13.5 9.8 1.6 0.4 0.0 178.0
NFU 8 Months Back 57.1 44.4 29.3 11.4 10.0 1.6 0.3 0.0 154.0
NFU 4 Months Back 36.1 27.9 21.7 9.6 7.5 1.2 0.1 0.0 104.0
Current NFU 34.3 26.1 17.9 6.6 3.8 0.4 0.0 0.0 89.0

50.0
N 45.0
u
m 40.0
b 35.0
e H
30.0 34.3
r o 26.1
m 25.0
o e 20.0 17.9
f s
15.0
N 10.0
e 12.5 14.9 6.6
5.0 11.3
w 3.8
3.1 1.0 0.4
0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0
Under 175 175/225 225/275 275/325 325/425 425/625 625/925 925+
New Home and Lot Combined Price Ranges

Max NFU Preferred % 22% 22% 24% 26% 28% 30% 32% 32%

Under Construction Finished Unoccupied Including Models (i.e.) NFU

Tracked subdivision demand, not "Forecast" demand

Under 175 175/225 225/275 275/325 325/425 425/625 625/925 925+ Total
COUNTED INVENTORY 46.7 41.0 29.1 9.7 4.8 0.7 0.0 0.0 132.0
NOT SOLD INVENTORY 34.2 26.1 16.8 6.6 1.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 85.2
PROJ. MONTHLY DEMAND 7.2 7.5 5.2 1.4 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.1 22.6
NO. MONTHS SUPPLY 4.8 3.5 3.3 4.7 1.6 0.6 0.0 0.0 3.8
2 to 2.4 months supply or lower is ideal
Historical New Home Supply vs. Demand
MG Areas 24 thru 25 - Lincoln County
(Only active subdivision data, not homes built on odd lots)
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
3/06 - 7/06 - 11/06 - 3/07 - 7/07 - 11/07 - 3/08 - Next 12
3/07 7/07 11/07 3/08 7/08 11/08 3/09 Mos

Closings Net Inv. 20% Closings 30% Closings Gross Inv Manageable Gross Inventory

3/06 - 7/06 - 11/06 - 3/07 - 7/07 - 11/07 - 3/08 -

Next 12 Mos
3/07 7/07 11/07 3/08 7/08 11/08 3/09
Closings na na na 0 170 317 441 378 381 346 271
Net Inv. na na na 176.3 170.6 179.5 168.4 150.0 96.9 85.2
30% Closings na na na 0.0 51.0 95.1 132.3 113.4 114.3 103.8 81.3
20% Closings na na na 0.0 34.0 63.4 88.2 75.6 76.2 69.2 54.2
Gross Inv na na na 326 367 327 293 244 167 132
The best Net Inventory should fall under the 20% of annual sales range. Above 30% is a problem. This chart has columns
representing sales and Net Inventory Not Sold with the 20% to 30% caution inventory range shown by the 2 crossing lines.
Net Inventory - The estimated or projected number of homes which are not under contract.
Next 12 Mos - The activity anticipated to occur in the subdivisions tracked based mostly on what has happened.
How Can A MarketGraphics
Forecast Help You Succeed?
The Absolute Necessity to Outperform the Market Average

Your Goals by:

1. Demographics—Homebuyers First!

2. Communities and Home Sites

3. New Homes
Check Out Our Blog Often For More Helpful Tips!
Don’t Pack Up Your Toys and Go Home
Monday, February 23rd, 2009
I was out visiting a sampling of new home communities from Columbia, Illinois to St. Louis County to
Jefferson County to Wentzville (a lot of windshield time but that’s what we do). I saw some fairly
clean sites that looked to me as though they were completely finished with selling homes (they
aren’t). This ends the good news.
I also saw:
Deteriorated and haphazard signage (if there was any at all)
Models (that I could find) were closed and in some cases, no hours were posted
None of the fifteen sites had an information box
Flattened tires on work vehicles
Heaps of construction debris
If I wanted to buy a house in one of the sites I visited I would not know who to talk to or where to go
for information – just imagine an overly cautious buyer’s reaction.
Two of the sites had some new signage, which was great but the signage color selected was
cautionary yellow with black lettering. Cautionary yellow is the color of cautionary type signage like
these:

In a market where every little detail counts, this would probably not be the best color scheme.
I talk with our clients everyday about today’s market realities and understand we can’t afford to do
things the way we once did but we can’t just pack up our toys and go home. There are buyers out
there and we need to be available when they are! There are low-cost or no-cost solutions
available! What about a self-touring site? Or a centralized sales zone? We need to concentrate
activity. I have tons of solutions. Let’s chat about this – call me today!
Joe Zanola
MarketGraphics St. Louis Region
9315 Manchester Road
St. Louis, MO 63119
(314) 918-7200