Lecture Overview

Example of qualitative risk mapping from Rheinhessen, Germany Example of quantitative risk mapping from Bildudalur, Island Example of quantitative risk mapping from Cairns, Australia Preliminary results from a local and regional landslide risk approach, Swabian Alb, Germany

Example of Rheinhessen, Germany

Regional landslide risk analysis Qualitative approach Key research issues:
To develop a concept for regional landslide risk analysis adjusted to German conditions To test this concept To give a first approximation of landslide risk

Scale of the study

Qualitative methods
Scale Inventar Heuristic Analysis Yes Statistical Analysis No Process-based Analysis Yes Neural network analysis Yes

Quantitative methods

< 1:10,000 1:25,000 1:50,000 > 1:100,000

Yes

Yes Yes

Yes Yes

Yes No

No No

No No

adopted from Soeters & van Westen (1996) and Aleotti & Chowdhury (1999)

Methodology

Study area

Landslide near Ockenheim, Rheinhessen

Landslide susceptibility map of Rheinhessen

DTM 40m DTM 20m

Glade (2001), based on Jger (1997)

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Elements at risk

ER Resid. Mixed Ind. Spec. Motorway

/m2 255 255-410 205-255 205 85-128

ER Forest Bush/past. Wine Agric. Road

/m2 2 0.3 10 0.5-0.7 13-15

Damage potential
Damage Potential Low Moderate High Very high Percentage 42 46 2 10

Weightning Options Risk Matrix

Damage Hazard Low Moderate High Low Low Moderate Moderate Moderate Low Moderate High High Low High Very high Very high Low High Very high

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Landslide risk
Landslide Risk Low Moderate High Very high Percentage 90 8 2 0.2

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Discussion of Rheinhessen study

Concept has the potential to be used Based on general information, thus applicable to other regions Cautious establishment of Risk Matrix Identification of hot spots Support for local and regional authorities as a planning tool for hazard mitigation

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Perspectives
Verification of spatial landslide hazard analysis Vulnerability curves for each element at risk Types of vulnerability (e.g. social, structural) Comparing different scales (spatial & temporal) Risk perception of various actors Assessment of user demands Multi-natural hazards and risk

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Examples from Bldudalur, NW-Iceland

Regional risk analysis Quantitative approach Multi-Hazard analysis
Debris flows Rock falls Snow avalanche

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Methodology

Eipe Epe Ep
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= per person (individual risk) = number of people in one object (object risk) = monetary value of object (economic risk)

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Glade (2002)

Examples from Bldudalur, NW-Iceland

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Examples from Bldudalur, NW-Iceland

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Individual risk to life, object risk to life and economic risk

Unit Risk type
individual risk to life snow avalanche debris flow rock fall multi-hazard object risk to life snow avalanche debris flow rock fall multi-hazard economic risk snow avalanche debris flow rock fall multi-hazard r/a r/a r/a r/a r/a r/a r/a r/a /m/a /m/a /m/a /m/a

risk value
min 5.6x10-5 5.7x10-4 1.1x10-5 5.7x10-5 6.3x10 6.3x10-4 2.1x10-5 6.3x10-5 0.024 0.24 0.0036 0.036
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% per risk class

very low
<0,3*10 -4

max 1.6x10-3 2.8x10-3 5.6x10-5 4.4x10-3 2.9x10 7.8x10-2 1.6x10-3 8.2x10-2 9.84 26.52 0.22 33.84
-2

low 33.53 0.00 92.20 0.00 14.72 0.00 26.95 4.42

3.6 - <9

medium

high
>3,0*10 -4

0,3 - <1,0*10 -4 1,0 - <3,0*10 -4

0.00 0.00 7.80 0.00

<0,3*10 -4

26.47 40.00 0.00 100.00 0.00 0.00 7.08 83.63

>3,0*10 -4

0,3 - <1,0*10 -4 1,0 - <3,0*10 -4

0.00 0.00 4.26 0.00

<3.6

21.18 64.12 0.00 100.00 57.45 11.35 3.10 92.48

9 - <18 >=18

4.26 42.09 100.00 50.67

26.95 46.28 0.00 24.38

57.45 9.77 0.00 21.69

11.35 1.86 0.00 3.26

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Individual risk to life

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Object risk to life

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Economic risk

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