STATISTICAL FEATURES OF COAL SEAM DATA SETS FROM SANGATTA AND BUKIT ASAM - INDONESIA

by: Chairul Nas 1)

1)

Lecturer and Chairman of Center for Coal Studies, Faculty of Mineral Technology - Trisakti University Jakarta

ABSTRACT Analyses of several coal data sets revealed variations in their statistical parameters. Statistical characteristics show some significant differences between the A1 Seam of the South Sumatra Foreland Basin and the Sangatta Seam of the Kutei Basin (Kalimantan), Indonesia, which were deposited under two different tectonic and environmental conditions. Formed in a less stable peat accumulation setting, the Sangatta Seam shows significant spatial variations in the statistical parameters of its thickness whereas the A1 Seam is much more uniform. An anisotropic distribution with less range of influence (a=270m) and smaller coefficient of multiple regression (R=0.10) for the thickness data of the Sangatta Seam is compared to the isotropic A1 Seam with a=1008m and R=0.45. These variations are interpreted to be directly related to different conditions of tectonic setting and depositional environment of the peat swamp. The understanding of such variations may be a valuable factor to guide the establishment of a national coal reserve classification system and to improve confidence levels in coal reserve estimations.

INTRODUCTION Peat accumulation is generally controlled by two major factors, allogenic (tectonic) and autogenic (environmental) factors (McCabe and Parrish, 1992; Flores, 1993). Allogenic factors, including climate, tectonism and eustacy, control the number, thickness, continuity and chemistry of coal seams on a basin scale (Galloway and Hobday, 1983). Autogenic factors, including vegetation types and hydrologic conditions, control the geometry and quality distributions of coal seams on an individual peat swamp scale. Variations in allogenic and autogenic conditions during peat deposition cause variations in coal seam geometry and the quality distributions of the resultant coal seams. In the case of some Indonesian coal deposits, these variations are reflected by a number of statistical features. This paper describes the statistical parameters of two economic coal seams and discusses the roles of allogenic and autogenic geological factors related to the statistical variations. On an interbasin scale, two major coal deposits (Sangatta in the Kutei Basin and Bukit Asam in the South Sumatra Basin; Fig. 1) are compared. At the peat swamp scale, the statistical parameters of the western and eastern zones of the Sangatta Coal Seam are examined. The Sangatta Seam is one of main coal seams within the Balikpapan Formation (Miocene in age) in the northern part of the Kutei Basin, East Kalimantan. The A1 Seam is the uppermost seam in the series of economic coal seams being mined in the Bukit Asam area, and was deposited within the Muara Enim Formation (Upper Miocene) of the South Sumatra Basin. The two basins are known to have different geological and tectonic development in the basinal formation resulting in different characteristics in the coal sedimentology.
Statistical Features .. by: Chairul Nas Trisakti University (2004)

Fig. 1. Locations of A1 Seam Bukit Asam (South Sumatra Basin) and Sangatta Seam Kutai Basin (East Kalimantan)

DATA AND STATISTICAL METHODS Currently, the Sangatta and Bukit Asam are the most important coalfields in Indonesia. Detailed explorations have been completed in these coalfields prior to the mining activities, providing a large volume of documented geological information in the coal data base. This study was focused in the thickness data from the Sangatta and A1 Seams which are the most important seams in the Sangatta and Bukit Asam Coalfields, respectively. Most of the data analysed were recorded from drill holes information where the easting and northing coordinates were well defined. The data were analysed using descriptive and spatial statistical techniques. The descriptive statistics including mean, coefficient of variation and histogram presentation explained general structure in the coal data sets. The spatial statistics including variogram, trend surface and moving window statistical analyses were undertaken to compare the spatial phenomena of the thickness data from the two seams.

Variogram Analysis The variogram analysis, one of the basic components of geostatistics (Isaaks and Srivastava 1989), were developed on the basis of the concept of Regionalised Variables (Matheron, 1971). In this concept most earth science data can be considered as Regionalised Variables whose spatial dependences are determined by their geographical position. Within a certain variable, a sample value must be related to other samples; the degree of the relation is a function of the distance and orientation between samples. The variogram determines the degree of dependence and the rate of change of a Regionalised Variable along a specific orientation. Practically, variograms are simply x-y plots of distances versus variogram values calculated on the basis of one-half the mean squared difference between paired samples according to the specific distance between sample points (Fig. 2). The calculation is formulated as follows:

Statistical Features .. by: Chairul Nas Trisakti University (2004)

 ( h) =

1 2N

(Z
i =1

Z( i + h ) ) 2

where (h) is the variogram value at the specific distance h (lag), Zi and Z(i+h) are the values of a Regionalised Variable at point i and point i+h respectively, N is number of pairs used in the variogram computation. In multivariate statistical terms, the variogram would be a mirror image of the autocovariance of the variable. Thus, a variogram (h) quantifies spatial correlations or variations between data recorded at a certain distance (h) apart, where the variogram values are the function of distances between samples. The original plots of calculated variogram values against the distance produce a graphic called experimental variogram which is commonly in turn modelled according to the feature shown by the variogram. Spherical model is one of the most common variogram to obtain the parameters useful for spatial data analysis. Three major parameters determined by a spherical modelled variogram are the nugget effect, sill and range. Theoretically, the variogram values at zero distance must be zero. In fact, many variograms have a value at h = 0 called the nugget effect. This is due to the very erratic nature of regionalised variables over short distances as well as sampling and analytical errors (Davis, 1986). The sill is the value where the variogram levels off; it should be approximately equivalent to the variance of all the data used in the variogram development (David, 1977; Knudsen and Kim, 1987; Brooker, 1991), although in some situations this may not be the case (Barnes, 1991). The range is the distance at which the variogram levels off. It indicates the degree of dependence between samples within a specific support (David, 1977; Journel and Huijbregts, 1978; Clark, 1979; Davis, 1986 and Knudsen and Kim, 1987). Thus the range is simply the traditional geological notion of the range of influence (Armstrong, 1981; Knudsen and Kim, 1987). Beyond the range, the samples are no longer correlated. Thus, range, sill, and nugget effect are the basic elements of variograms providing information about spatial structure of data such as range of influence (continuity), spatial variability, small scale variations in the data. With these elements the spatial statistical comparisons between the Sangatta and A1 Seams were determined.
Level off

(h)

Sill

Nugget Effect Range

distance

Fig. 2. Theoretical Spherical Model of variogram (x-y plot), showing variogram values ((h)) as the function of between samples distance

Statistical Features .. by: Chairul Nas Trisakti University (2004)

Trend Surface Analysis

Trend surface analysis is multiple regression analysis commonly applied in geology (Davis, 1986); it is the statistical method most commonly used to minimise the sum of squared differences between observed and predicted values by using a least square technique. In this study, the predicted thickness values are the function of their coordinates (X and Y) which can be calculated by the following regression equation (see Fig. 3):

Ztrend = A jk X j Y k
k =0 j =0

n n k

where A is the regression coefficient and n is the degree of the polynomial. Mathematical solution of the trend surface analysis is principally to find the regression coefficients. This consists of matrix setting and computation. The predicted Z values (trend values) at each data location where the coordinates are known are calculated using these coefficients. In this study, the degree of fit of the trend surface represented by the coefficients of multiple correlation (R) which indicates spatial regularity of the thickness data from the Sangatta and A1 Seams were compared. For the Sangatta Seam, trend surface analysis was also undertaken in several blocks of the Sangatta Coalfield. The main reason for doing this was to confirm the local trends and local regularity of the coal parameters across the coalfield (which had already been deduced from geological observations).

Z - axis

Y - axis X - axis

Y - axis X - axis

Fig. 3. Two 3-D diagrams showing actual surface (left diagram) and the 1st Order Trend Surface (right diagram); x and y axes are coordinates, z is a variable of coal data.

Statistical Features .. by: Chairul Nas Trisakti University (2004)

Moving Window Analysis

The moving window statistical analysis was used to split the study areas into small blocks and to calculate the statistical parameters including mean and coefficients of variation of the data from each block (Isaaks and Srivastava, 1989). The spatial change of the local mean and coefficients of variation of seam thickness were revealed accross the study areas. The statistical parameters (mean, standard deviation and coefficient of variation) from each window were plotted on x-y scatterplots to check the proportional effect of the data. Through this plot the relationship between the local mean of thickness and the thickness variability were also indicated. The mechanism of moving is controlled by the width of the windows and the increments for the centres (Fig. 4). The width defines the number of data points within each window; the increment determines the number of windows. In the case of small data sets, a compromise between the width and increment resulted in overlap between adjoining windows. For window statistics, a variation of 100m x 100m to 1000m x 1000m windows and 100m to 500 m increments were analysed. Where necessary, overlapped areas were limited to 50%. The minimum number of points allowed in each window was five; below that statistical calculations were skipped and no value was assigned to the centre point.

Fig. 4. Mechanism of moving windows statistical analysis

Statistical Features .. by: Chairul Nas Trisakti University (2004)

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

General
It has been shown that the geometry of coal seams is well defined by both allogenic and autogenic conditions during peat accumulation (McCabe and Parrish, 1992; Diessel, 1992; Ferm and Staub, 1984; Fielding, 1987). In this paper, therefore, emphasis was placed on the statistical results of thickness data to express the geometrical features of the coal seam studied. The basic statistical tools provide general statistical features of the data, while spatial statistics contribute to the quantitative spatial parameters of the coal seams. The statistical results for inter-basin and inter-seam comparisons are shown in Fig. 5. The statistically different characteristics between the Sangatta Seam in the Kutei Basin and the A1 Seam in the South Sumatra Basin are also shown in Fig. 5. In comparison with the A1 Seam, the Sangatta Seam is characterised by: 1. a bimodal normal, zoned and anisotropic distribution (unimodal normal and isotropic for A1 Seam); 2. higher variation coefficients and nugget/sill ratio; 3. lower values of variogram range (Sangatta Seam = 270m; A1 Seam = 1008m); and 4. lower coefficients of multiple correlation (Sangatta Seam = 0.10; A1 Seam = 0.45) The bimodal normal distribution of the thickness data in the Sangatta Seam may indicate that the thickness has been developed in two stages; the initial stage was controlled by environmental conditions within the peat swamp and the second stage was a modification of the thickness mainly by washouts, splitting, and faults. In contrast, the unimodal normal population of the A1 Seam in the Bukit Asam area suggests that this seam was deposited in a regular and uniform geological setting (Kinhill-Ottogold, 1984) without significant postdepositional thickness modification. The thickness uniformity of the A1 Seam is also reflected by the lower value of the coefficients of variation. The different tectonic and environmental conditions of the two coal seams are also reflected by different results of the spatial statistical analysis. The thickness of the Sangatta Seam is less continuous and less regular than that of the A1 Seam, as indicated by the smaller range values on the variograms and the smaller correlation coefficients for the trend surface analysis. The Sangatta Seam also shows a greater spatial variability of the thickness in local scales, as indicated by a higher value of the nugget effect to sill ratio obtained from the variogram analysis. The greater thickness variability of the Sangatta Seam suggests that rapid lateral changes in the conditions of the Sangatta peat swamp occurred. Such changes may have been caused by rapid facies changes which were present in the sedimentary strata below the seam causing, for example, differential subsidence and growth faults due to differential compaction that rendered the peat-forming platform unstable. A close spatial relationship between the peat swamp and the contemporaneous clastic activities also caused rapid changes in environmental conditions in the peat swamp resulting in localised splitting, tapering and erosion in the coal seam. The controls on the clastic sedimentary processes during Sangatta peat development are reflected by an anisotropic distribution of its thickness, whereby the coal seam is more continuous in the direction of clastic depositional dip (southeast).
Statistical Features .. by: Chairul Nas Trisakti University (2004)

STATICAL FEATURES
Mean of Thickness Coeff. Var Statistical Population

SANGATTA SEAM (KUTAI BASIN)

5.8m 0.47 Bimodal - Normal

A1 SEAM OF BUKIT ASAM (SOUTH SUMATRA BASIN)

6.8m 0.33 Unimodal - normal

Variogram

Range = 270m Nugget Effect = 2.9 Sill = 6.5

Range = 1008m Nugget Effect = 1.9 Sill = 5.1

Ratio of Sill to Nugget Variogram Structures

2.24 Nested Structure is observed: Range 1 = 270m Range 2 = 700m Range 3 = 1400m

2.68

No Nested structure is observed

Orientation of Variogram Ranges

90 1000 113 68 135 45 158 500 23 0 0 0 23 158 45 135 68 113 90

90 1131200 135 700 158 200 0 23 45

-300

68

45 23 0

68 90

158 135 113

Anisotropic Fit of Trend Surface Spatial Variability (Window Statistics) Correlation of Thickness and Variability (Window Statistics) 1st Order R = 0.10 2nd Order R = 0.38 High

Isotropic 1st Order R = 0.45 2nd Order R = 0.50 Low

Proportional Effect is observed

No Proportional Effect is observed

Fig. 5. Statistical Summary of thickness data from Sangatta Seam (Kutai Basin) and A1 Seam of Bukit Asam (South Sumatra Basin), Indonesia

Statistical Features .. by: Chairul Nas Trisakti University (2004)

Bukit Asam
In the Bukit Asam area, the A1 Seam was deposited in the more mature fluvial system of the South Sumatra Foreland Basin. During the deposition of the Bukit Asam coals, the basin was subsiding quite regularly and gently resulting in a widespread alluvial plain when the peat swamp was initiated. The A1 Seam was deposited above a laterally extensive graded tuffaceous sandstone and mudstone unit. Lack of lateral facies change in the sedimentary units below the peat maintained the uniformity of the morphology and hydrologic conditions in the swamp. Moreover, subsequent geological processes were characterised by a uniform subsidence followed by the deposition of fine-grained clastic sediments that took place extensively over the peat surface. This may have controlled the high spatial regularity and continuity of the coal seam, that is, smaller nugget value, smaller sill value and greater value in range of influence of the variogram. Moreover, lack of correlation between local mean and the coefficient of variaion of the thickness data obtained from the moving window statistical analysis (Fig. 5) indicates no systematic change of the variability caused by the thickness changes.

Sangatta
In the Sangatta area, within a distance of 5 km the influence of more complex environmental conditions on the deposition of the Sangatta Seam was noted; this may have been responsible for a zoning character in the thickness distribution. The zoned thickness distribution is also characterised by different statistical features in each zone. For example, distinctive characteristics were noted between the western, central, eastern and northern zones (Fig. 6). The relatively uniform, regular and more continuous coal seam body in the western zone (compared with the central and eastern zones) is indicated by: 1. the unimodal normal distribution; 2. higher range of influence; 3. higher isotropy factor; 4. minimum nugget effect to sill ratio; 5. highest fit of the trend surface (R); and 6. lower coefficient of variation. The average thickness of the Sangatta Seam is also greatest in the western zone. The different statistical features may have been the result of different environmental conditions in each zone. The peat swamp in the western zone may have developed in a more gently subsiding region and without significant channelling in the peat surface. In this zone the rate of peat accumulation kept pace with or was slightly greater than the rate of subsidence. Supported by a high rainfall, this condition resulted in a doming effect in the peat body, thereby the peat surface was slightly higher than regional water table. Consequently, most of the peat body in the western zone was not reached by clastic sedimentation and the thickness development was mainly controlled by the initial peat accumulation and compaction. In the central and eastern zones on the other sides, the peat swamp developed in a more rapidly subsiding environment with contemporaneous faults in the underlying strata. In these zones, thickness development within the coal seam was controlled by at least two different factors; the conditions in initial peat accumulation and compaction, and subsequent geological
Statistical Features .. by: Chairul Nas Trisakti University (2004)

processes such as erosion and faulting. In these zones, the high spatial variability of thickness may have been caused by washouts, splitting and faulting of the coal seam.

Fig. 6. Statistical summary of the thickness data from the Sangatta Seam in the four geological zones.

CONCLUSIONS
1. Statistical variations within and between coal seam data sets have geological significance. The use of this technique, as a predictive model, may contribute to geological interpretations in coal basins and environmental analyses. 2. Coal seams from various basins bearing different geological and statistical characteristics, especially spatial continuity and variability, need special criteria for reserve classification. This will improve the confidence levels in the reserve estimations. 3. In term of the geometry, the Sangatta Seam has less spatial continuity and less regularity reflected by a shorter range of influence (a = 270m) and smaller R (0.10) compared to the A1 Seam with longer a (1008m) and greater R (0.45). 4. A directional variogram analysis indicates that the Sangatta Seam has an anisotroipic and zoning for its thickness distribution compared to an isotropic of A1 Seam. 5. Different characteristics in the spatial continuity of coal seams, together with other geological factors such as roof and floor rock conditions, should be considered in planning mining methods in Indonesian coalfields.
Statistical Features .. by: Chairul Nas Trisakti University (2004)

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

The statistical work was carried out on coal data provided by P.T Kaltim Prima Coal, Indonesia, and P.T. Batubara Bukit Asam, Indonesia. The authors are thankful to both companies for the data provision for writing this paper. This work was a minor part of a PhD research project (C Nas) carried out at the University of Wollongong, Australia.

REFERENCES
Davis, J. C, 1986, Statistical and Data Analysis in Geology. 2nd edition, John Wiley and Sons, New York, 646p. Diessel, C. F, 1992, Coal Bearing Depositional Systems. Springer-Verlag, Berlin, 721p. Ferm, J. C and Staub, J, 1984, Depositional controls of mineable coal bodies. In Rahmani, R. A and Flores, R. M (eds) Sedimentology of Coal and Coal Bearing Sequences. Int. Assoc. Sed. Spec. Publ., 7: 275-289. Fielding, C. R, 1987, Coal depositional models for deltaic and alluvial plain sequences. Geology, 15: 661-664. Flores, R. M, 1993, Geologic and geomorphic controls of coal development in some Tertiary Rocky Mountain Basins, USA. Int. J. Coal Geol., 23: 43-73. Galloway, W. E and Hobday, D. K, 1983, Terrigenous Clastic Depositional systems; application to petroleum, coal and uranium exploration. Springer-Verlag, Berlin, 423p. Isaaks, E. H and Srivastava, R. M, 1989, An Introduction to Applied Geostatistics. Oxford Univ. Press, 561p. Kinhill-Ottogold, 1984, South Sumatra Coal Exploration Project; review report. June, 1984. Matheron, G., 1971, The theory of Regionalised Variables and its application. Les Cahiers du Centre de Morphologie Mathematique de Fontainebleau, Ecole National Superieure des Mines de Paris, 211p. McCabe, P. J and Parrish, J. T, 1992, Tectonic and climatic controls on the distribution and quality of Cretaceous coals. In McCabe, P. J. and Parrish, J. T. (eds) Controls on the Distribution and Quality of Cretaceous Coals, Geol. Soc. Am. Spec. Paper, 267: 115.

Statistical Features .. by: Chairul Nas Trisakti University (2004)