ALTERNATIVE ENERGY & THE OIL INDUSTRY YOUNG AMERICANS SEEKING CAMELOT A PUBLIC COMMENTARY FOR XXXX SAN

DIEGO 2006
IVAN A. GARGUREVICH, PH.D. CHEMICAL ENGINEERING CONSULTANT CALIFORNIA Dear friends and fellow Californians, I decided to present my opinions on Alternative Energy & The Oil Industry at XXXX in this beautiful city of San Diego. It was prompted by an extremely important presentation of Oil prices, Energy, and Hybrid vehicles by XXXX last November of 2005, and of course my deep concerns about the issues as a citizen and Chemical Engineer, with extensive experience in the Refining, Oil & Gas, Synfuels, and Hydrogen Industries. I am now of the age that I feel I have a strong responsibility for the future of the young people of California, and America in general. That is why I would like to express my opinions, with your permission, as if speaking directly to my nephew Alex, and nieces Elizabeth, Jennifer, and Victoria, and the young people of this country whom are ready to start their College education. Alex, Elizabeth, Jennifer, Victoria, I really would like to apologize to you for my lack of attention and action for the problems that future energy demand will present to your generation. It has been a failure of my generation to some extent WHAT THE YOUNG PEOPLE WISH. I know only too well what the hopes of the young are in this respect, as described in a journal of the United Nations Environmental program (UNEP)[1}: As young, caring citizens of this planet, we commit ourselves to restoring and preserving our world, and to rebuilding our dreams of tomorrow pure waters, vast wildlands, clean air and cities free from poverty. We embrace these ten commitments: 1. Natural resource utilization: We must display wisdom and creativity in preserving resources for future generations. 2. Biodiversity: We will protect the web of life its diversity and habitats and support the preservation of all life on Earth. 3. Atmosphere: We will protect it. It is the skin of our planet! 4. Water: Water is the nurturer of all terrestrial and aquatic life. We will clean it, protect it and ensure free and fair access for all. 5. Energy: We will end wastage of it, conserve it better and seek alternative sources of energy. 6. Waste: Waste is a poison in the heart of the global ecosystem. We will reduce, re-use and recycle our waste. 7. Sustainable living: We will live in harmony with our ecosystems. 8. Cooperation and education: We will build a global community based on fair trade and free transfer of technology.

9. Human rights: We will not be intimidated by our apparent lack of power. Together we will act for change. It is our human right. ACTION! Above all, we commit ourselves to action. For the fate of the Earth lies not in government hands but in ours. I feel that one of the reasons that we have not quite fulfilled your dreams of clean, nonpolluting energy sources has to do to some extent, in my opinion, with the adoption of a philosophy by Government and Industry of seeking goals, in a broad sense, for the very near future only. But the thought of many highly qualified scientists, economists, and politicians, is that the real failure may have to do with the lack of accounting of the cost of environmental depletion on society in general [2]. Today this cost is taken as zero. A press release by the United Environmental program in 2006, based on their own study [3], states that the economic benefits of air pollution measures in the combustion of fossil fuels such as coal and oil presently used in factories, power plants and automobiles, is six times higher than the cost of implementing such pollution control technologies!! What is really needed to achieve these goals in the most expedient way, not in 20 to 30 year, but hopefully sooner? I believe that to allow market forces only, as the mechanism to do this [3, 4] will not be sufficient, and I think, it is going to take a strong intervention from our US Government through well-thought of incentives such as tax breaks for example [4], and a strong desire by citizens of our great nation. Let us remember that the invention and development of such a wonderful technology, such as the Internet, is due to government funding for Universities and Government Laboratories as a way to speed up the sharing of technical information and data!! The issue of achieving the wonderful goals dreamed of by the young above is difficult simply because it involves complex interactions amongst three most important factors: population growth, economic growth, and technology development [5]. I will now describe to you only the problems dealing with the technical development of alternative energy sources, which would be free of air pollution, and the role of the Oil industry in this matter, and the issue of national Security due to dependence on Oil and natural Gas imports form highly unstable regions of the world. The other two factors, population growth, and economic wealth could literally take many hours to discuss, and elucidate. Let me first point out some facts that are most relevant. With respect to the present consumption of available or plentiful fuels: First, in the year 2004, most of the energy consumption in the USA is attributed to Transportation, and Industrial concerns. These should then be the target of new technologies [6]. Second, the most important fuels available globally today are coal, natural gas and petroleum. Third, petroleum is the fuel of choice for transportation, natural gas is favored by industrial usage, and coal is used mostly in power plants for

generation of electricity. The use of Nuclear Fission for energy generation is today very limited. The problem with these facts is that coal, natural gas, and petroleum are all carbon based fuels which upon burning result in the release of Carbon Dioxide, and its impact on the Green House Effect, and pollutants of various kinds depending on the fuel. Now, other relevant facts concerning generation of energy, and the use of alternative energy, are the most likely sources of energy for future usage and development [7]: -Geothermal -Hydroelectric -Wind Power -Solar -Fossil Fuels, coupled with use of Clean Technology Development: Coal, Natural Gas, and Oil. -Biomass: Tress, Plants -Nuclear Fission, Fusion -Hydrogen Generation -Batteries As a study by the government of Great Britain points out [8]: a. Large generation of energy by Wind Mills is not practical. b. Biomass for production of ethanol is a sound alternative, but is limited in its capacity to satisfy the appetite for energy, and the technologies to produce ethanol form celluloid are still under development [9, 10]. c. Nuclear energy has seen very little development over the last decades mainly because of concerns with radioactive byproducts and their handling or disposal, as well as the cost of safety measures and controls [11]. d. The generation of Hydroelectric power in large amounts does not seem feasible, and it does have an important impact on the natural habitat of fish. e. Solar energy generation by using photovoltaic cells is still under development due to low efficiency, and high cost [12]. f. The continued use of fossil fuel. at least in the next 15 year [13] is most attractive, but in order to make them a source of Clean, non-polluting energy will require the application of new technologies, including the sequestration of carbon dioxide to minimize the Green House problem. g. Hydrogen Generation and its use in conjunction with fuel cells for example, it is by most accounts a technological challenge which will not be fully resolved fully for at least another 20 to 30 years [14]. One problem is that Hydrogen generation is energy intensive, and the cost of fuel cells is high, and the life of the cell is still only a low number [15]. h. Electric Batteries capable of generating large amounts of power, as well as being cost effective is not yet possible [16]. Batteries are presently used in applications such as powering small industrial equipment, and electronic devices. What do all these comments dealing with the existing fuels consumed in the USA, and the new alternative sources of energy such as Biomass, Solar, and Hydrogen indicate? The obvious observation is that with the exception of Coal, which is plentiful in US soil, we will be depending in the near future for at least another 10 years or more on fuels

that are plentiful outside the USA only, mostly the Middle East, and I am referring to Oil and Natural Gas. Another observation is that the high use of energy for transportation, and industry should be an obvious incentive to zero-in on the automobile and electricity generation as the most important targets for speedy technology development. This would then result in reduced foreign oil consumption for transportation, and the use of clean technologies for coal power plants. I have already mentioned up front, to highlight it, that to speed up the development of alternative energy sources, free of air pollution, our country must accept the idea of putting a cost figure on the effect of environmental pollution . Another most important issue, which affects decisions made by the Oil industry and the Energy industry as well, is the tremendous capital investment and commitment to develop new energy sources and the infrastructure that would have to be created, thus these two issues seem to be in limbo because most corporations simply can not handle such commitments, and make clean energy a reality in a matter of years [17]. Just think my dear nephew and nieces, if someone would develop a highly sophisticated hydrogen fueled car, every gasoline or diesel station would have to be replaced by hydrogen gas stations. This of course would also require the construction of large hydrogen production plants capable to satisfy the new demand in regions of the USA. As a perfect example of what is being said is an estimate of a new refinery to be built in Colorado, it has been estimated as 2.5 billion dollars, this is a very capital intensive proposition [18]. Another related issue that must be brought to mind is that there are urban areas of Southern California, with increasingly higher population density, the best alternative is not the use of the private automobile, but public transportation, because of the possibility of gridlock, since the construction of more freeways is no longer feasible and tremendously expensive. This important problem, I do not think has been given enough consideration in the consideration of energy usage and development of alternative energy. THE ISSUE OF NATIONAL SECURITY All of this seems to point out that because of a lack of foresight, as well as the lack of consideration to the value of clean environment, for the near future, the USA will have to continue to relay on the import of petroleum and natural gas from a region of the world where at this moment, as well as in the past, there is a tremendous amount of political mayhem. This has tremendous implications on the issue of National Security [19]. Another extremely dangerous development, also having an impact on national security, which has not been taken into account by most studies, technical, academic or political, is the decision by the Oil producing nations in the Middle East [20] to gain entry and capture, as described in Chemical & Engineering News, the production of basic Petrochemicals so important in the manufacture of other industrial chemicals and plastics or polymers. This decision is driven by economic factors, it is considerably cheaper for Middle Eastern concerns to build, operate, and manufacture

petrochemicals, than it would be to do so ion American soil. It will be about a decade for the Middle East to acquire most of the Petrochemical production [21]. This development represents both a national risk, as well as an economic risk for the continued financial growth of the USA. A CONCLUSION I would like to conclude with the following thought: We must not make the mistake in thinking that Science and Engineering, and Political mandates will always have readymade answers for every problem that society faces at a given moment. This has not always been the case as History proves: the lack of a polio vaccine during a period of time in the world at general in the 40s and 50s, the lack of a cure for the spreading Aids epidemic in parts of Africa, Asia, and parts of the gone Soviet Union; Aids affects even innocent children, the black plague in ancient Europe that cause the death of 50% of the population at the time, it also was not the case with the effects of the Great Depression in our great Nation in the 40s. We must have enough sense to plan ahead, and to consider the options available in the event of a future crisis. I am sorry , Alex, but it seems that young people of you age will have to be ready to pull up your shirt sleeves and get to work as soon as you are old enough, and you have earned the education to face some of the possible upcoming problem of Clean Energy generation, and development of new Technologies in Transportation. DEDICATIONS I would like to dedicate this effort to my wonderful Chemistry Teachers, and Mentors from El Camino Jr. College, Torrance: Prof. Warren Ford, Prof. James Campbell; and to the man that paid for my education and growth , my own Father as well as Mother. My gratitude as well to the Japan Karate Association, Santa Monica, Sensei James Field, and Henry Tehrani, for continue to propagate the true meaning of pursuing a Code of Conduct. Just as important is my gratitude to Amnesty International USA, I am a member, for their dedication to the well-being of young people all over the World!!