THE FIELD POLL

Release #2447 By Mark DiCamillo and Mervin Field

THE INDEPENDENT AND NON-PARTISAN SURVEY OF PUBLIC OPINION ESTABLISHED IN 1947 AS THE CALIFORNIA POLL BY MERVIN FIELD

Field Research Corporation

601 California Street, Suite 900 San Francisco, CA 94108-2814 (415) 392-5763 FAX: (415) 434-2541 EMAIL: fieldpoll@field.com www.field.com/fieldpollonline

Release Date: Thursday, July 25, 2013 IMPORTANT: Contract for this service is subject to revocation if publication or broadcast takes place before release date or if contents are divulged to persons outside of subscriber staff prior to release time. (ISSN 0195-4520)

HILLARY CLINTON, WIDELY CONSIDERED A PROBABLE 2016 PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE, VIEWED VERY FAVORABLY BY CALIFORNIA VOTERS.

Perhaps more than any other U.S. politician Hillary Clinton is considered a likely candidate for president in 2016. The former Secretary of State has long been held in favorable regard by California voters ever since she came onto the national political scene as this nations First Lady in 1993, upon her husband Bill Clinton's election as President. After becoming the U.S. Senator from New York (2001 -2009) she ran for President in 2008 and defeated the eventual nominee Barack Obama in the California primary election in February of that year. She was appointed U.S. Secretary of State in 2009 by Obama and served in that role until early this year. The current survey finds Clintons popularity in California to be as high now as it has ever been. In the years between 1996 and 2007 pluralities of voters ranging from 46% to 55% viewed her favorably, while those holding an unfavorable opinion ranged from 33% to 42%. In a statewide survey completed last week 56% have a positive opinion of her, while just 30% hold an unfavorable view.

Field Research Corporation is an Equal Opportunity Employer

The Field Poll Thursday, July 25, 2013

#2447 Page 2

Table 1 Trend of voter assessments of Hillary Clinton (among California registered voters) July 2013 December 2007 October 2007 February 2006 February 2002 January 2001 August 1999 September 1996 June 1996 Favorable 56% 52% 48% 51% 46% 46% 55% 54% 52% Unfavorable No opinion 30 14 42 6 39 13 39 10 34 20 34 20 37 8 33 13 37 11

Note: December 2007 measure conducted among likely voters.

Clinton's appeal is broad-based More voters across virtually all demographic subgroups of the state have a favorable than unfavorable opinion of Clinton. Democrats view her positively nearly eight to one, while her image rating is nearly two-to-one favorable among those with no major party preference. California men rate her favorably five to three (55% to 33%), while women hold an even more positive view (58% to 28%). Clinton is held in particularly high regard among voters in both the San Francisco Bay Area and Los Angeles County, where about seven in ten view her favorably. The only voter subgroups where significantly more voters view her negatively than positively are Republicans and conservatives.

The Field Poll Thursday, July 25, 2013

#2447 Page 3

Table 2 Current image appraisals of Hillary Clinton by subgroup (among California registered voters) Total registered voters Party registration Democrats Republicans No party preference/other Political ideology Strongly conservative Moderately conservative Middle-of-the-road Moderately liberal Strongly liberal Gender Male Female Region Los Angeles County Other Southern California Central Valley San Francisco Bay Area Other Northern California* Age 18-49 40-64 65 or older Race/ethnicity White non-Hispanic Latino African-American/Asian/other Education High school graduate or less Some college/trade school College graduate Post-graduate work
* Small sample base.

Favorable 56% 79% 28% 51% 23% 39% 61% 78% 86% 55% 58% 67% 46% 45% 71% 44% 56% 57% 57% 50% 66% 65% 56% 51% 57% 64%

Unfavorable No opinion 30 14 10 60 31 71 46 22 8 7 33 28 18 39 45 18 47 24 34 31 37 21 17 29 34 33 26 11 12 18 6 15 17 14 7 12 14 15 15 10 11 9 20 9 12 13 13 18 15 15 10 10

The Field Poll Thursday, July 25, 2013

#2447 Page 4

Appraisal of two GOP presidential prospects Two Republicans who have been getting press attention as presidential contenders in 2016 are Florida Senator Marco Rubio and Kentucky Senator Rand Paul. However, in the current survey half of this states voters do not know enough about Rubio or Rand to offer an opinion. In addition, among those with an opinion, slightly more hold an unfavorable than favorable view of each man. Table 3 Image appraisals of two Republican U. S. Senators considered to be potential candidates for President in 2016 (among California registered voters) Rand Paul (R), Kentucky Senator Marco Rubio (R), Florida Senator Favorable 21% 22% Unfavorable No opinion 29 50 26 52

Views of Rubio and Rand across voter subgroups When examining the various subgroups of the California electorate to see how they are viewed, the most common characteristic is that most voters do not know enough about either man to offer an opinion.

The Field Poll Thursday, July 25, 2013

#2447 Page 5

Table 4 Image appraisals of Marco Rubio and Rand Paul by subgroup (among California registered voters) Marco Rubio Favor- UnfavorNo able able opinion 22% 26 52 15% 39% 13% 43% 31% 17% 12% 11% 22% 21% 13% 30% 24% 16% 31% 15% 23% 27% 24% 21% 14% 22% 19% 24% 23% 33 12 29 15 17 21 31 55 32 20 29 20 22 30 34 26 26 24 27 24 23 21 19 26 41 52 51 58 42 52 62 57 34 46 59 58 50 54 54 35 59 51 49 49 55 63 57 62 50 36 Rand Paul Favor- UnfavorNo able able opinion 21% 29 50 12% 36% 22% 51% 24% 15% 11% 6% 24% 19% 16% 24% 29% 17% 29% 18% 23% 22% 24% 16% 19% 20% 22% 24% 20% 40 14 28 9 9 29 35 73 31 28 27 25 26 40 30 31 26 35 33 24 24 16 23 31 54 48 50 50 40 67 56 54 21 45 53 57 52 45 43 41 51 51 43 43 60 57 64 55 45 26

Total registered voters Party registration Democrats Republicans No party preference/other Political ideology Strongly conservative Moderately conservative Middle-of-the-road Moderately liberal Strongly liberal Gender Male Female Region Los Angeles County Other Southern California Central Valley San Francisco Bay Area Other Northern California* Age 18-49 40-64 65 or older Race/ethnicity White non-Hispanic Latino African-American/Asian/other Education High school graduate or less Some college/trade school College graduate Post-graduate work
* Small sample base.

30

The Field Poll Thursday, July 25, 2013

#2447 Page 6

Information About The Survey

Methodological Details

The findings in this report are based on a Field Poll survey completed June 26 July 21, 2013 among 846 registered voters in California. Interviewing was conducted by telephone using live interviewers working from Field Research Corporations central location telephone interviewing facilities. Up to six attempts were made to reach, screen and interview each randomly selected voter from the state's registered voter rolls on different days and times of day during the interviewing period. Interviewing was completed on either a voters landline phone or a cell phone depending on the source of the telephone listing from the voter file. After the completion of interviewing, the overall registered voter sample was weighted to demographic, geographic and party registration characteristics of the state's registered voter population. Sampling error estimates applicable to the results of any probability-based survey depend on sample size as well as the percentage distribution being examined. The maximum sampling error for results from the overall sample are +/- 3.5 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. The maximum sampling error is based on results in the middle of the sampling distribution (i.e., percentages at or near 50%). Percentages at either end of the distribution (those closer to 10% or 90%) have a smaller margin of error. There are other potential sources of error in surveys besides sampling error. However, the overall design and execution of the survey sought to minimize these other possible sources of error. The Field Poll was established in 1947 as The California Poll by Mervin Field, who is still an active advisor. The Poll has operated continuously since then as an independent, non-partisan survey of California public opinion. The Poll receives annual funding from media subscribers of The Field Poll, from several California foundations, and the University of California and California State University systems, who receive the data files from each Field Poll survey shortly after its completion for teaching and secondary research purposes. Questions Asked (QUESTIONS ASKED IN RANDOM ORDER) Generally speaking, do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Hillary Clinton, former Secretary of State? Generally speaking, do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Marco Rubio, Florida Senator? Generally speaking, do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Rand Paul, Kentucky Senator?