Erik Popaja

The Future of Basketball Evaluation

Run to the 3-point line and spot up. (http://www.hufngtonpost.com/2013/02/28/

nba-3-pointer_n_2774239.html). This quote describes the new age attitude of basketball all over the world, and now, even in the NBA. Over the course of NBA history, the most important player was the Center and in some scenarios the Power Forward. This was because they were so physically superior that they could dominate the game on both ends of the court. On offense they could get closer to the basket than any other player, and at their gigantic height they could nish at a very efcient rate. On the defensive end they also dominated as they were able to block shots, which instilled fear in other players, ultimately forcing them to alter their shots. This combination of efcient scoring, blocking and altering shots, made the big man the most pivotal key to a successful team. With rule changes, increased tempo, and most importantly, the increased usage of the three pointer, the great big men have faded away and seem to be the past, rather than the future of the NBA. It is important to identify this, because in it, lies the future of the NBA for years to come. My question is, whether it is better for teams, fans, and the NBA to have a slower pace game dominated by the Centers, or a fast paced game captivated by lights-out shooters?

In the NBA, there are a variety of awards that demonstrate and highlight the

athletic capabilities of players throughout history. These include: the Defensive Player of

the Year, the Rookie of the Year, the Sixth Man Award, the Most Improved Player, Scoring champion, Rebounding Champion, Assist leaders, and most importantly, the MVP. These categories provide the highest standard or criteria for a NBA superstar. If you accomplish enough of these, you have earned the right to proclaim yourself as one of the games elite. As you would imagine, the rebounding titles have gone to various big men, and the assist titles have gone to various guards. So the deciding statistic between guards and centers is the scoring title, which has been won by centers twentyve times, and won by guards forty-two times (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ List_of_National_Basketball_Association_season_scoring_leaders.) This means that statistically speaking, guards are more valuable on the offensive end of the court. But centers have proven to be more valuable defensively as they have won twenty-two Defensive Player of the Year Awards, versus only seven won by guards (http:// en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_Defensive_Player_of_the_Year_Award.) The deciding factor must then be which of the two side has taken home more of the MVP awards. The Centers win with an overwhelming thirty-ve MVPs won versus the guards twenty-three (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_Most_Valuable_Player_Award.) This means that as an individual, a great center is more valuable than a great guard. As key as this may be, it is common knowledge that the greatest achievement in the NBA is not to win an MVP, but to win an NBA championship.

In the pursuit of an NBA championship, historically great big men such as Bill

Russell, Kareem Abdul Jabbar, Wilt Chamberlain, Hakeem Olajuwon, Shaquille Oneal, and Tim Duncan, have have won an astounding twenty-nine NBA championships (http://

espn.go.com/nba/), meaning that nearly half of every championship since the NBA, has been won by one these six players. This is evidence, that the big men have been able to perform and win at the highest level. But this also means that the remaining championships, more than half, have been won by teams that didnt include the six greatest big men ever. When you compare the achievements, it is almost half and half between championship teams led by great big men, and led by great guards. This means that there is no single blueprint on how to win an NBA championship, and that there are a plethora of different variables involved in winning an NBA championship. ! Now, knowing that you can win with either size or speed, strength or skill, the

question resurfaces again, which is better for the teams, the league, and the fans? For teams, the answer is pretty simple. In fact, you could simply and blatantly say that the center is the most important player on every team. When asked, Miami Heat Head Coach Erik Spolestra, who has two superstars and future hall of famers in Dwyane Wade and LeBron James, stated ... thats why for three years weve said hes (Chris Bosh, the Miami Heat center) our most important player. Ultimately if asked, every owner would rather take a great young center as a player, rather than a great young guard. This is due to many reasons, but can be summed up in the age old NBA adage, you cant teach size. That being said, there are not many great centers that appear regularly, in fact, if you wanted to list great centers you would nd (according to my list) that there are six in the top ten, but only fteen out of the next forty. My point is that although every team would rather have a great big, it is extremely unlikely, and frankly unrealistic for them to expect to have one. This is where the ip side of that adage, you cant teach size, comes in handy, because, to a certain extent you can teach skill.

Giants like Yao Ming, Shaq, and Wilt only come once in a generation, but players such as Steve Novak, a sharpshooter who recently led the NBA in the three-point shooting percentage are everywhere, and are very undervalued. In fact, this very same Steve Novak who led the league in shooting, and had a +376 performance over the last year (http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/plus/plus_minus_nder.cgi? player_id=novakst01), meaning that his team outscored the other team by 376 points while he was playing. Even with this, Novak had a hard time nding minutes in all of his teams, and was even kicked off of four previous teams before staying in New York, and rumors are now surfacing that he is being shopped by the Knicks. This goes to show that great shooters can be found everywhere and at a very cheap price in comparison to great big men. In fact Dwight Howard, the presumed greatest center today is scheduled to earn around six times more than the greatest statistical three-point shooter in the NBA. So my conclusion is that although every team would rather have a dominant center, it is impossible for that to happen, and it is in the better interest for the average NBA team to continue this transition into a three-point shooting league. ! The next step is in deciding whether a traditional big man game, or three-point

shooting, up and down game is better for the fans. For the casual fan, or anybody who happens to stumble upon an NBA game, it is difcult to appreciate the skill it requires to shoot. They also dont appreciate the skills of big men like Tim Duncan with his bank shot, Kareem Abdul Jabbar with his skyhook, and Hakeem Olajuwon and his footwork. Along with that, shooting is much less appreciated then athletic plays such as dunking or alley-oop plays. That being said, for real NBA fans who can appreciate the art of shooting and nding the open man, watching teams like the SanAntonio Spurs is a joy

as they are able to spread the oor, nd a wide open shot, and the shooters are able to knock them down. This style of play is so effective that it along with the fundamentally packed game of Tim Duncan nearly knocked out the incredibly athletic Miami Heat. That being said, real NBA fans can also appreciate the hustle of Bill Russell, and the skill of other big men. So when it comes down to whats better for the fans, it is dead even for die hard NBA fans, and a victory for the up and down three point pace game for the casual fan. ! As for what is in the better interest in the league, that can be answered by

ratings, which are almost entirely tied in with what the fans want. Me being a three-point shooting big man, a hybrid if you will, I have personally discovered that it is more effective to play a fast paced three-point based game, versus a traditional post game. It is because of this experience and the coinciding evidence that I conclude that the fast break tempo, three point shooting game, is better for the future of the NBA.