Exercise 7-9

Given the premises, discuss whether the conclusion of each argument that follows is (a) true beyond a reasonable doubt, (b) probably true, or (c) possibly true or possibly false. You should expect disagreement on these items, but the closer your answers are to your instructors, the better. 1. The sign on the parking meter says Out of Order, so the meter is not working. (b) probably true 2. The annual rainfall in Californias north valley averages twenty-three inches. So, the rainfall next year will be twenty-three inches. (c) possibly true or possibly false. 3. You expect to get forty miles to the gallon in that? Why, that old wreck has a monster V8; besides, it is fifty years old and needs an overhaul. (a) true beyond a reasonable doubt, that the truck will not get forty miles to the gallon. 4. In three of the last four presidential races, the winner of the Iowa Republican primary has not captured the Republican nomination. Therefore, the winner of the next Iowa Republican primary will not capture the Republican nomination. (c) possibly true or possibly false 5. The New York steak, the Maine lobster, and the beef stroganoff at that restaurant are all exceptionally good. All the entrees are excellent. (b) probably true 6. The number of cellular telephones has increased dramatically in each of the past few years. Therefore, there will be even more of them in use this coming year. (a) true beyond a reasonable doubt 7. Since the graduates of Harvard, Yale, Princeton, and other Ivy League schools generally score higher on the Graduate Record Examination than students from Central State, it follows that the Ivy League schools do more toward educating their students than Central State does. (b) probably true 8. Michael Jackson has had more plastic surgery than anybody else in California. You can bet hes had more than anybody in Connecticut! (c) possibly true or possibly false. 9. Although Max bled profusely before he died, there was no blood on the ground where his body was found. Therefore, he was killed somewhere else and brought here after the murder. (b) probably true 10. When liquor was banned in 1920, hospitalizations for alcoholism and related diseases plummeted; in 1933, when Prohibition was repealed, alcohol-related illnesses rose sharply again. Legalization of cocaine, heroin, and marijuana would not curb abuse of those substances. (b) probably true 11. Relax. The kid has been delivering the paper for, how long? Three, four years maybe? And not once has she missed us. The paper will be here, just wait and see. She has just been delayed for some reason. (b) probably true

12. First, it seems clear that even if there are occasional small dips in the consumption of petroleum, the general trend shows no sign of a real permanent decrease. Second, petroleum reserves are not being discovered as fast as petroleum is currently being consumed. From these two facts, we can conclude that reserves will eventually be consumed and that the world will have to do without oil. (a) true beyond a reasonable doubt