Summer 2006 STAT 602 0 10

Homework 1 Solution
1
B
B
9999 CB
CB
1 C
C
B CB C
100 0
@ A@ A

1. Let P(A)=P(person wins the fist prize in the first lottery) =1 − 0 1 = 0.01
B
B
10000 C
C
B C
100
@ A

0 10 1
B
B
4999 CB
CB
1 C
C
B CB C
100 0
@ A@ A

and P(B)=P(person wins the fist prize in the second lottery) =1 − 0 1 = 0.02.
B
B
5000 C
C
B C
100
@ A

Then

(a) P(person does not win the first prize in either lottery)=P (Ac ∩ B c ) = P (Ac ) × P (B c )
= (1 − 0.01) × (1 − 0.02) = 0.9702.

(b) P(person wins the first prize in at least one of the lotteries)=P (A ∪ B)
= 1 − P (Ac ∩ B c )
= 1 − 0.9702 = 0.0298.

(c) P(person wins exactly one first prize in the lotteries)=P (A ∪ B) − P (A ∩ B)

= 0.0298 − 0.01 × 0.02 = 0.0296.

2. Let P(H)=0.5 and P(T)=0.5. Then,

P(exactly the same number of tosses will be required for each of the 3 performances)

=[P (H)]3 + [P (T )P (H)]3 + [P (T )2 P (H)]3 + [P (T )3 P (H)]3 + · · ·

n o
=[P (H)]3 1 + [P (T )]3 + [P (T )]6 + [P (T )]9 + · · ·
n o 0.53 1
=0.53 1 + 0.53 + 0.56 + 0.59 + · · · = =
1 − 0.53 7
6
P 6
P
3. (a) P (X = x) = kx, x = 1, 2, . . . , 6, Since P (X = x) = 1, k x = 1.
x=1 x=1
1
Thus, k = .
21  x
 , x = 1, 2, . . . , 6
The probability function pX (x) = P (X = x) = 21
 0, otherwise
(b) P(X is even)=P(X=2)+P(X=4)+P(X=6)=(2+4+6)/21=4/7.
1 5 2 5 6 5
(c) P(same number occurs on each of the five rolls)=( 21 ) + ( 21 ) + · · · + ( 21 ) = 0.003.

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Summer 2006 STAT 602 Homework 1 Solution

4. Let A denote the event that the first return has an error,

Let B denote the event that the second return has an error.

25 5 25
(a) P (Ac ∩ B) = P (B|Ac )P (Ac ) = 30 × 29 = 6×29 .

4 5 25 5 4+25
(b) P (B) = P (B|A)P (A) + P (B|Ac )P (Ac ) = 29 × 30 + 30 × 29 = 29×6 = 16 .

(c) Let C denote that the third return selected has an error.

P (Ac ∩ B c ∩ C) = P (C|Ac ∩ B c )P (Ac ∩ B c ) = P (C|Ac ∩ B c )P (B c |Ac )P (Ac )

5 24 25 25
= 28 × 29 × 30 = 7×29 .

5 4 3
(d) P (A ∩ B ∩ C) = 30 × 29 × 28
5 4 3 2
P(first four have errors)= 30 × 29 × 28 × 27
5 4 3 2 1
P(first five have errors)= 30 × 29 × 28 × 27 × 26

P(first six have errors)=0 since only 5 returns have errors.

5. In the first x − 1 returns, there are only 1 error. And the xth return is an error.

Therefore,

 
x−1
  × 5 × 4 × [25!/(25 − (x − 2))!]
1
P (X = x) = , x = 2, 3, . . . , 26, 27.
[30!/(30 − x)!]
 
x−1
Since   = x − 1, Therefore,
1

(x − 1)5 · 4 · 25! · (30 − x)!

P (X = x) = , x = 2, 3, . . . , 26, 27.
30! · (25 − (x − 2))!

6. There are 4 aces, and 12 face cards.

Let A denote the event that the process ends with an ace.

Let B denote the event that the process ends with a face card.
4 12
P (A) = , P (B) = .
52 52
16
P (A ∪ B) = P (A) + P (B) = since A and B are disjoint.
52
We know that the process ends with either an ace or a face card, thus
P (A ∩ (A ∪ B)) P (A) 4/52 1
P (A|A ∪ B) = = = = .
P (A ∪ B) P (A ∪ B) 16/52 4

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Summer 2006 STAT 602 Homework 1 Solution

7. It does not matter that cards are not being replaced. We still have that the probability of the process
ending with an ace is 1/4.

8. Let W denote the event that the team wins.

(a)
P (W ) = P (W |A)P (A) + P (W |B)P (B) + P (W |C)P (C)
= 0.4 × 0.2 + 0.6 × 0.3 + 0.8 × 0.5
= 0.66

P (A ∩ W ) P (W |A)P (A) 0.4 × 0.2

(b) P (A|W ) = = = = 0.1212.
P (W ) P (W ) 0.66

9. (a) Since I start the game, I make the fifth free throw. Hence, the desired probability is
(0.4)(0.3)(0.4)(0.3)(0.6)=0.0086.

(b) P(I make first free throw)

∞
P (I make first free throw on (2k + 1)th shot)
P
=
k=0
= 0.6 + (0.4)(0.3)(0.6) + [(0.4)(0.3)]2 (0.6) + · · ·
∞ 0.6
(0.12)k =
P
= (0.6) = 0.6818.
k=0 1 − 0.12
(c) Since I start the game, I make all the odd-number shots (and, in particular, the seventh). So the
desired probability is 1.

(d) For k = 1, 2, . . . , 7, let Ak denote the event that the first free throw is make on the k th shot.

Let B denote the event that I made it.

„ 7
«
S
7
S P B∩( Ak )
P (B| Ak ) = „ 7k=1 «
S
k=1 P Ak
„ 7 k=1 «
S
P (B∩Ak )
k=1
= „ 7
S
«
P Ak
k=1
7
P
P (B∩Ak )
k=1
= 7
P
P (Ak )
k=1

7
P
Since the events Ak , k = 1, 2, . . . , 7, are pairwise disjoint, one can calculate that P (Ak ) =
k=1
0.99931.
7
P (B ∩ Ak ) = 0.6 + 0 + (0.4)(0.3)(0.6) + 0 + [(0.4)(0.3)]2 (0.6) + 0 + [(0.4)(0.3)]3 (0.6)
P
Also,
k=1
1 − (0.12)4
= (0.6) = 0.68167.
0.12

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Summer 2006 STAT 602 Homework 1 Solution

7
 
S
Hence, P B| Ak = 0.68214.
k=1

10. (a) The desired probability is (0.3)(0.4)(0.3)(0.4)(0.7) = 0.01008.

(b) The desired probability is

(0.3)(0.6) + (0.3)2 (0.4)(0.6) + (0.3)3 (0.4)2 (0.6) + · · ·

∞
0.6 X 0.6 0.12
= (0.12)k = = 0.20455.
0.4 0.4 1 − 0.12
k=1
(c) That probability is 0, since my friend makes all the odd-numbered shots.

(d) The desired probability is 0.204 by the same procedure as 9(d).

P (D ∩ +) P (+|D)P (D)
11. (a) P (D|+) = = ,
P (+) P (+)
P (+) = P (+|D)P (D) + P (+|Dc )P (Dc )
= 0.99 × 0.1 + 0.02 × 0.9 = 0.117.
0.99 × 0.1
So, P (Disease|+) = = 0.846.
0.117
P (Dc ∩ −) P (−|Dc )P (Dc )
(b) P (Dc |−) = =
P (−) P (−)
P (−) = P (−|D)P (D) + P (−|Dc )P (Dc )
= 0.01 × 0.1 + 0.98 × 0.9 = 0.883
0.98 × 0.9
So, P (Dc |−) = = 0.9989.
0.883
P (+|D)P (D) 0.99 × 0.001
(c) P (D|+) = = = 0.0472.
P (+) 0.99 × 0.001 + 0.02 × 0.999