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Background Brief Cambodia: Hun Sen as Next Head of Cambodia Peoples Party Carlyle A. Thayer October 9, 2013

[client name deleted] We are preparing a report about who will take up the presidency of the Cambodia Peoples Party (CPP) once Chea Sim is out of the picture. We have been informed by CPP spokesman Cheam Yeap that the position will go to Hun Sen. This has been confirmed by people within the party less aligned with Hun Sen. We request your assessment of the following issues: ANSWER: Q1- Why do you think it has been decided that Hun Sen become CPP president? ANSWER: Hun Sen is shoring up his power in the Cambodian Peoples Party to preempt any immediate challenge to his leadership. In other words, Hun Sen is preventing any potential rival from using the presidency of the CPP as a base to maneuver against him. Q2- Do you think this could upset the balance of power within the party, if there is a balance of power within the party? ANSWER: There has long been informed reports of personal if not factional differences within the CPP. Party members will place a premium on preserving the CPPs hold on power in the face of challenges by Sam Rainsy and the opposition. But, at the same time, party members will be giving Hun Sen close scrutiny. If Hun Sen in his new role as party chief disregards constructive criticism within the CPP, and concern mounts about the CPPs future political future, we could see destabilizing infighting. But for the moment Hun Sen appears in an unassailable position in the near term. Q3- Do you think that having Hun Sen serve as president of the CPP will cause any significant changes in how the party operates? ANSWER: The CPP is likely to be run in a more autocratic fashion. Hun Sen does not appear to be a politician who copes easily with criticism and opposition within the CPP ranks. Hun Sen no doubt views the future of the CPP as synonymous with his future. It may be overstating the case but Hun Sen is more likely to adopt a my way or the highway attitude than a conciliatory stance.

2 Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, Cambodia: Hun Sen as Next Head of Cambodia Peoples Party, Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, October 9, 2013. All background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the mailing list type UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key. Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.