Assignment#1: Fundamentals

1. Two circuit breakers of the same design (each) have a failure-to-open-on-demand probability of 0.02. The breakers are placed in series so that both must fail to open in order for the circuit breaker system to fail. What is the probability of system failure: (a) If the failures are independent? (b) If the probability of a second failure is 0.1, given the failure of the first? (c) What is the probability of one or more breaker failures on demand? 2. A critical seam in an aircraft wing must be reworked if any one of the 28 identical rivets is found to be defective. Quality control inspections find that 18% of the seams must be reworked. (a) Assuming that the defects are independent, what is the probability that a rivet will be defective? (b) To what value must this probability be reduced if the rework rate is to be reduced below 5%? 3. The probability of an engines failing during a 30-day acceptance test is 0.3 under adverse environmental conditions. Eight engines are included in such a test. What is the probability of i)none will fail and ii) more than half will fail. 4. Suppose that a sample of 20 units passes acceptance test if no more than 2 units fail. Suppose that the producer guarantees the units for a failure probability of 0.05. the buyer considers 0.15 to be the maximum acceptable failure probability. (a) What is the producers risk? (b) What is the buyers risk? 5. A buyer specifies that no more than 10% of large batches of items should be defective. She tests 10 items from each batch and accepts the batch if none of the 10 is defective. What is the probability that she will accept a batch in which more than 10% are defective? 6. Customers who purchase a certain make of car can order an engine in any of three sizes. Of all cars sold, 45% have smallest engine, 35% have the medium-size one, and 20% have the largest. Of cars with the smallest engine, 10% fail an emissions test within two years of purchase, while 12% of those with the medium size and 15% of those with the largest engine fail. What is the probability that a randomly chosen car will fail an emissions test within 2 years? (based on Bayes theorem)