Paradigm Shift (Paradigm Pioneer Vid 1) Around the world across the countries, man and woman, family

y and friends, leaders and followers, have gaze into the flame and dream of the future. The dreams came at all scales, something to get through the winter, something to change the world for the better, and the dreams have come and gone, some mistake for ever fantastical and others had become real and altered the course of human history. Each change triggered cascade of other changes. New trends, new innovations that have made the futures significantly different from the back which is originally dream in front of the fire. For many people these changes has cause great frustration because just as they mastering the trick for the most recent change, the next change arrives, fresh from the future and then another and another. Its enough to wear you off. So as anyone wonders so many others develop the resistance to change and yet there are people who have learned somehow to deal with these changes. They moved from one to another with eased and even graced. What did they know that enable them to prepare for these changes before u and I? And what would it means for u and your organization if you could improve your ability to anticipate the future like these people seem to do? My name is Joel Barker, since 1974 my work is focused on how to discover the future. Id like you to come along with me now to discover how you could become better at anticipating those changes and innovation that becoming faster every day. And not just the large change that alter the face of the entire industries but the small changes too, which nevertheless make a big different in our lives. Here in the file of US pad off office is the prove of the power of new paradigms. Charles Goodyear During the past 20 years the concept of the paradigm shift has become the key ingredient in understanding change. Paradigms are about patterns of behaviour and the rules and regulations were used to construct those pattern. We used the patterns, first, to establish boundaries in our lives and our job, in our professions, in our organizations and then to direct us on how to solve the problems that lie inside those boundaries. In almost all cases we measure our life success by our ability to solve problems with the new paradigm. In science, in business, in politics, in education, in our lives, changing a paradigm means fundamentally altering the way things were done. These people who discover the new rules are a crucial first element in a process changing paradigm. Through their new paradigms they create for all of us new ways to solve important problems. Sometimes their paradigms allow us to solve previously unsolvable problems and often as a result of the paradigm shift the standard ways of doing business become obsolete (eg: federal express to special delivery, cord watch to the mechanical watch and what total quality is doing to total quantity). Looking back at how these changes erase previous pattern of success you may rightfully wonder is my organization do to extinction if we dont discover the next paradigm shift? Does the future belong to only those people who create the next paradigm?

The answer to those questions is a resounding No, you do not have to create the new rules in order to be successful if you understand the role of a special group of people who are crucial in driving the new paradigm from rough concept in the practical application. Paradigm shifters rarely bring their new paradigms into the world all by themselves. In almost every case they need these groups of people, a group of people so important that without them the new paradigm will emerge slowly if at all a group of people willing to accept high risks in order to open the new way. I call them paradigm pioneers. The pioneer introduces in almost every culture on earth. Perhaps its the most famous version occurred during the 19th century in the USA, it is this version that we are going to use to illustrate our point. It was across the planes and through those mountains of pioneers of the Americans west land. They came from all over the world to open the territory. And after they were successful they were followed by the settlers. I think we all know the difference between the pioneer and the settler. It always the settler whose calling out over the horizon Is it safe out there now?? the voice calling back sure it safe out there is the pioneer, because the pioneer went out first and made it safe. People of the pioneering spirit are almost always in the first waves because they recognize the new and the better before anybody else does. And yet because they are first the pioneers are considered high risk takers and the settler, because they go out later, are considered low risk takers. In the 21st century, I believe it will be the settlers who at high risk. And if you want from here on out, not just to survive but frive, you had better be ready to do some pioneering. To understand why I say that we need to explore the nature of the paradigm pioneer. Remember that when we talk about paradigm pioneering we not talking about pioneer of place but pioneer of time, not of geography but of chronology, not of east and west but of past and future, and what we have to understand is this, in order to get all the advantages of the next paradigm shift, you do not have to be the paradigm shifter but you do have to be a paradigm pioneer. Lets start with an example. This is a reconstruction of the first McDonald that Ray Crock builds in the 1955. It is now kind of the national landmark here in this plane Illinois, a suburb northwest of Chicago. Now Ray Crock didnt invent McDonald. It was the McD brothers who did that in 1948, but Ray Crock was a paradigm pioneer. He looked at what those two brothers were doing in San Bergedino, California and he saw a whole new continent of opportunity. He didnt invent the rules but he understood how far he could take them. In Mr Crock behaviour, we see perfectly illustrated 3 key characteristics of the paradigm pioneer. First, in spite of the fact that there was not near enough data to prove it, Ray Crock knew that the McD concept is a big idea. We are going to explore what it means to know something in that way. Second, he had the gut to act in what he believed to be true. For paradigm pioneer this represents a special kind of courage and we need to understand that too. Third, Ray realized he was in it for the long haul. He knew it will take time and perseverance to bring the idea to provision and with time as its test he proved to be right. Let us now examine in detail these characteristics of the paradigm pioneer. We will start with a special kind of knowing that paradigm pioneers have. Remember when I said paradigm help us

solve problems? Well I want to draw you a graph which is a kind of map to illustrate the paradigm. The horizontal axis would be time, the vertical axis is problems solved. New paradigm start about here, the paradigm shifter solved a couple of problems like breaking the older rules and then just the begins to create a new rules. This is still very rough. The development goes like this. Slowly, at first because you cant solve problems rapidly until you really understand the rules. Then, faster and faster you gain master over your paradigm and you discover a whole continent of problems waiting to be solved. And then finally, slower and slower as all you have left to deal with are the most difficult problems remaining of the paradigm. Where along the line does a paradigm pioneer show up? Here in middle to late A or early B phase. Now asks yourself how much data is there at this point to prove that this new paradigm is going to solve a lot of problems? Remember none of the rest of these exists yet. The answer is never enough. So how does the paradigm pioneer know what is the right idea? They used a much misunderstood judgement skill called intuition. Intuition is the ability to make good decisions with incomplete information. In a sense, it was the same concept Thomas Camus talking about in his book Contracture Scientific Revolutions when he talked about the act of faith. What that means is that if you have to justify a decision with fact, you never have enough. When you come to the four in the row or you have to decide whether to continue on down the old pathway using the old paradigm or turn away from it and take the new, you will never have enough information to prove that you are right in taking the new way. Let return to that McD for example. What did Ray know about the McD brothers hamburgers stands before he flew out to San Bernardino in the 1994? Only that they were using a lot of multi mixers. Remember he was 52 years old, he was a very successful businessman. He had a lot to lose and yet he just looking for just 1 and a half days to decide to become the national franchiser for the McD brothers. How did he make such a major life decision in less than 36 hours? He had a paradigm pioneers in to the feeling that he was right. What is so impressive that he didnt just pioneer a new company, he pioneered the empire industry. Dozens of company has followed in his footsteps to provide fast, inexpensive food, in clean convenient settings. To those watching them in 1944, Ray decision may have looked frivolous but history has now substantiated it is brilliant intuition. If you are a paradigm pioneer you know youre doing the right thing. Your intuitive judgement tells you so. When the settlers ask is it safe out there? what they really asked in for is data, problem solved, prove that there is no risk in they adopting the new paradigm. Who generates that data? The pioneers. Some people look at Ray Crock or Tom Watsom about ABM, or Fred Smith of federal express, or Kito Marita of Sony, or Sam Walt of Wal-Mart the other paradigm pioneers of the world, they say Oh they were just lucky, they were at the right place at the right time. I say to you they used their intuitive judgement to determine if the pioneering idea was good or not. Those people who do not understand or who do not trust the idea of intuition can only explain the pioneer success in terms of luck. It was an intuition. Intuition alone however is not enough to make a paradigm pioneer. Weve all run into those people with good intuition who tell us Oh I know bout that 10 years ago so why didnt she do something about that? Isnt that the question wed like to ask them? And yet they hardly ever answer honestly because the reason they didnt do something was no guts.

Courage is the second essential attribute to the paradigm pioneer, the willingness to move forward in the face of the great risk. Think of the courage it took to cross the great emptiness. To mark their courage it became a tradition for many the pioneer to stop at one third point on their journey on the organ trail and craft their name onto the granite of this lonely sentinel, independent rock. Courage is the enabling characteristics that allow you to actualize your intuition. Here at the Nucor Steel profit steel plan, next to mountain of scrap iron, in the middle of Indiana farmland, the people of Nucor have courageously pioneer a revolution in steel making. Tin, sled, casting, invented by Polish engineer Mandrid Polacalsky. Before profit steel they used to take 3thousand feet of roller to make hot roll sheet steel. Now Nucor can do it in 300 feet. With this amazing continuous tin sled casting machine the first of its kind in the world. Tin sled casting was the holy grail in steel making. During the 20th century the German, Japanese, Russian, French, British, Swiss, Italian tried and failed. And in the phase of all that failure Nucor tried and succeeded. Thats courage. From scrap steel to molten steel to continuous casting to hot roll sheet steel, the result the most labour efficient steel plan in the world. Even as many old style steel made unused and uncompetitive silent shadows on the landscape of change Nucor continues forward. The company had its people energize at the spirit of paradigm pioneering. Final ingredient, the commitment of time. Its a long walk to Oregon. Paradigm pioneer understand how much time it take to go from a rough concept to a working paradigm. For Ray Kroc it took half a decade. Paradigm pioneer understand that its not an easy road because theyre first into the territory. They cut the pathways. So the benefits are there and the risks are too. But I believe the risks of not staying close to the living edge are growing every day. Those organizations who know how to pioneer are gaining huge leverage even now over those who do not. How do I always create that claim? By asking 2 questions. First question, what nation has the highest rate of creating new paradigms in the last 50 years? The USA. Look at what the US has done, transistor, colour television, video tape recording, the microwave oven, fast foods, and the personal computer. But now i need to ask the second question to illustrate what Ive been driving now, what nation in the world is the best at paradigm pioneering? Japan. Now many people believe Japan success has been built on their ability to simply copy of the peoples ideas. Dont you believe that for a minute. Their paradigm pioneers perhaps the best in the world. Please keep in mind they dont started off with somebody elses finish idea, they enter in early on the paradigm curve and then with hard work and long hours and great cleverness and a deep commitment to the long term they drive a new paradigm of concept into practice. Here south east of Kyoto we find an example of Japans paradigm pioneering. Sharp was one of the first to produce and sell a full colour active metrics flat video screen. A paradigm shift in screen technology. Its first application was with computers but behind these walls Sharp is building larger and larger flat screens for televisions. And thats a market worth 10 of billions of dollars worldwide. Who originated this technological breakthrough? In the Wasting house, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA in the early 1970s. Here we see why this screen have the potential to dominate the world with its clarity, its brilliant colour its narrow silhouette, so many uses yet no one in the US was willing to invest the time, money and the effort in the driving up to

the paradigm curve in the practicality. Only the Japanese were, so they bought the early patterns and did it. How do opportunities like this slip away? To many people, want to many numbers before theyll make a decision. Marker surveys, risk analysis, manufacturing So by paradigm pioneering and not waiting for the numbers the Japanese got the gadgets for the US, cord watches in Switzerland, diamond coating form the soviet Union, fuzzy logic form the university of California, compact music disk from the Netherlands, and their greatest hallmark total quality form W. Edward Deming and Joseph Juran of the US and that is far from the complete list. Of course the rest of the worlds now have the numbers on those things thanks to the Japanese. Kaizen as it is known here in Japan means every day finding some way to improve every aspect of your product or your service and the process is by which you create and deliver them. Now it dont have to be a big improvement, 1% is just fine but you have to do it every day. Kaizen changes the slop of your paradigm curve. Instead of developing like this. As the result from a settler who comes in like Yo! Is it safe out there? the pioneer answers sure, but theres nothing left for you thats why the 21st century is a century for pioneers. Look at what Sony did with walkman, they introduce their product in 1979. Within 12 months the competitors showed up when the rate was on. In 1991, they kaizen their product by making it much smaller and introduce walkman 2. With this moves, Sony rendered the competitive products obsolete. So the competition went back to make theirs smaller and several month later they came back with their smaller version. To which Sony Kaizen began. And for the last 10 years Sony has reduce the power energy requirement, had a rechargeable battery, made the switching smoother, added 2 headphone jack, added water resistance to continuous improvement. Formula, paradigm pioneering + continuous improvement = never give the settler an even break. It is going to be very difficult to catch paradigm pioneers who practice total quality and continuous improvement.