Analyst: Amit Rane +91- 22- 40287022 amit@qsmail.com Investment Arguments Higher Growth expected from Higher Margin SBU During FY13, A&E SBU revenues grew 39.3% YoY to Rs 5403mn. KPIT enjoys 24-25% EBITDA margins (vs 16.3% overall company margins) from this SBU due to its domain expertise and niche capabilities. The electronic components (i.e. Hardware + Software) currently account for 20% of the cost of a vehicle and is expected to account for 40% of total car production costs. We believe that KPIT is likely to be direct beneficiary of rising the proportion of electronic components used in vehicles leading to higher growth from this SBU in FY14.
Successful integration of SYSTIME driving IES SBU Growth At the end of Q4FY13, SYSTIME has been able to achieve revenue of $ 17mn per quarter (vs $ 13mn at time of integration) with EBITDA margins at 15% (vs 5%), driven by integration benefits and operational improvements. Thus, despite an average quarterly de-growth of 8% in revenues from the Cummins Account, the IES SBU has recorded positive growth. We believe along with the SYSTIMEs growth in business volume and margin levers such as utilization improvement and change in the business mix as SYSTIME has large onsite presence which can be moved offshore, KPIT will be in a position to maintain current margins in this SBU.
Concerns Overdone We believe that concerns regarding Cummins account degrowing are overdone, considering a healthy growth trend achieved by the non-Cummins accounts. Managements growth guidance of 14- 16% in US $ Revenue in FY14 implies strong growth expectations from non-SAP SBUs (relatively higher margins) and non-Cummins accounts, considering that about 48% of the company's revenue (SAP and Cummins) is expected to remain muted.
There is concern that various acquisitions have strained the companys cash flows in the recent past, with a total earn out outgo expected at $ 25-28mn over the next 3 quarters. But since 2010 KPIT has spent ~$ 75mn for acquisitions, which constitutes 40% of FY13 revenue, but it should be noted that due to acquisitions company has registered 45.2% CAGR growth in the revenue which is much higher than that of peers during FY10-13.
Outlook and Valuations We expect KPIT to post a net profit CAGR of 17.7% during FY13- 15E with an average ROE of 18.2%. Our observation of guidance vs actual performance of the company during FY07-13 suggests that except for FY09 (missed), the actual performances have exceeded their guidance. Management has guided for 14-16% $- Revenue growth with 50bps improvement in EBITDA margins in FY14. The stock is currently trading at an attractive P/E multiple of 7.5x FY15E EPS of Rs 14.3. We value KPIT at 10x FY15E EPS and arrive at a target price of Rs 143. We recommend a BUY on KPIT Cummins Infosystems Ltd.
Quantum Securities Investment Arguments Improvement in Demand markets During the slowdown phase in developed countries, both Auto & Transportation and Manufacturing were the worst affected sectors. With drop in consumer spending, capacity utilisations of manufacturing companies slumped and go-to-market plans with new products virtually ceased. This led to a crash in the budgets of these clients, thus impacting the business of domain-specialist companies such as KPIT. The recent US market statistics indicate a growing confidence in the economic recovery with major automakers witnessing growth in sales. KPIT divested its non scalable, BFS division, focusing its entire efforts towards its strength Auto & Transportation and Manufacturing verticals which contribute 39.3% and 33.7% to revenue respectively in FY13.
Economic indicators from Key markets US and UK
Source: Bloomberg, QS Research
Thus, to capture market share and to drive cost efficiencies, manufacturing clients are back with discretionary spending on IT services such as engineering services and enterprise solutions. FY13 performance recorded by the manufacturing vertical of the top IT players highlights the same trend.
Rising contribution of Manufacturing Vertical Geographical Revenue Contribution
Source: Company, QS Research
Improvement in the clients business environment is strengthening the companys deal pipeline. This is also reflected by an aggressive net employee addition target of 1,000 employees in FY14 on an existing base of 8,321 employees in FY13.
30 35 40 45 50 55 60 F e b - 0 9 A p r - 0 9 J u n - 0 9 A u g - 0 9 O c t - 0 9 D e c - 0 9 F e b - 1 0 A p r - 1 0 J u n - 1 0 A u g - 1 0 O c t - 1 0 D e c - 1 0 F e b - 1 1 A p r - 1 1 J u n - 1 1 A u g - 1 1 O c t - 1 1 D e c - 1 1 F e b - 1 2 A p r - 1 2 J u n - 1 2 A u g - 1 2 O c t - 1 2 D e c - 1 2 F e b - 1 3 A p r - 1 3 US.PMI ISM Index 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 F e b - 0 9 A p r - 0 9 J u n - 0 9 A u g - 0 9 O c t - 0 9 D e c - 0 9 F e b - 1 0 A p r - 1 0 J u n - 1 0 A u g - 1 0 O c t - 1 0 D e c - 1 0 F e b - 1 1 A p r - 1 1 J u n - 1 1 A u g - 1 1 O c t - 1 1 D e c - 1 1 F e b - 1 2 A p r - 1 2 J u n - 1 2 A u g - 1 2 O c t - 1 2 D e c - 1 2 F e b - 1 3 A p r - 1 3 PMITMUK Index 20.5 7.8 19.2 32.4 22.0 8.3 19.1 33.7 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 Infosys TCS Wipro KPIT FY12 FY13 USA 76% EUROPE 13% ROW 11%
Quantum Securities Higher Growth expected from Higher Margin SBU
KPIT primarily focuses on three SBUs viz. auto & engineering, integrated enterprise solutions and SAP.
KPIT- Business Model SBU What they do? Contribution to Revenue EBITDA margins Integrated Enterprise Solutions (IES) Transformational Ent consulting - ERP implementation + Follow on support with specialisation in Auto and Transportation vertical. Majority of Cummins revenue is classified under this SBU. 47.0% 18.0% Auto & Engineering (A&E) Primarily Embedded Software and Auto Electronics - High End reqt of Auto OEMs 24.1% 24.0% SAP Core ERP implementation for Auto, Manufacturing, Utilities and Energy verticals. 80% is implementation and around 15 to 20% is support and maintenance. 28.9% 5.0%
Source: Company, QS Research
Integrated Enterprise Solutions (IES) This unit focuses on Oracle and JD Edwards practice (SYSTIME) and provides business process management (BPM), manufacturing execution systems (MES), enterprise asset management (EAM), supply chain management (SCM) & warehouse management systems (WMS) to manufacturing and energy utilities customers. Majority of the revenue from Cummins are classified under this SBU.
Auto & Engineering This SBUs revenue can be classified into specialized solutions and products developed by KPIT.
Products: - AUTOSAR Suite - Diagnostics Suite - Infotainment Suite - Revolo - Plug in Hybrid
SAP KPIT has been present in SAP practice for 15 years and is a Gold Partner and Services partner with a total of 16 SAP Qualified Industry Specific Solutions and has 7 Global delivery centers, with more than 1500 SAP consultants.
Quantum Securities Auto & Engineering SBU (A&E SBU) constitutes 24.1% of FY13 revenues and provides services to Auto Original Equipment Manufacturers (16+ in number) and Tier I & II vendors (around 50 in number). During FY13, A&E SBU revenues grew 39.3% YoY to Rs 5403mn. Company enjoys 24-25% EBITDA margins from this SBU due to its domain expertise and niche capabilities. Companys R&D Investments (forming a good 6% of the units revenues) and focus on development of non-linear solutions has been reflected by the number of patents filed by them in the automotive domain. KPIT has deployed 2500+ experienced engineers in this SBU.
Profile of Patents filed Patent Area No of Patents Hybrid Technology 16 Automotive 19 Embedded & VLSI 5 High Performance Computing 3 Total 43
Strongest Automotive Focus and Competence
Source: Company Presentation November 2012, QS Research
Automotive Industry R&D Spend Trend
Source: Company Presentation November 2012, QS Research
Quantum Securities Rising usage of electronics KPIT a direct beneficiary With automakers relying more heavily on the electronic technology, the proportion of electronic components used in vehicles has been increasing steeply in the recent years. As per industry sources, the electronic components (i.e. Hardware + Software) currently account for 20% of the cost of a vehicle and is expected to account for 40% of total car production costs. Consequently, worldwide sales of automotive electronics technology are expected to soar from $ 189bn in 2012 to $ 274bn in 2017. This trend is expected to be positive for Software vendors like KPIT which is largest third-party automotive electronics vendor globally.
Successful integration of SYSTIME driving IES SBU Growth The Integrated Enterprise Solutions (IES) SBU contributed 47.0% of revenues with EBITDA margins of ~18% in FY13. Majority of Cummins revenues are categorised under this SBU. KPIY is the Global Platinum Partner to Oracle and provides services like business process management (BPM), manufacturing execution systems (MES), enterprise asset management (EAM), supply chain management (SCM) & warehouse management systems (WMS) to manufacturing and energy utilities customers.
KPIT is the third largest partner to Oracle in North America in industrial manufacturing and the eighth largest partner across industries.
KPITs Oracle consulting & implementation capability was strengthened by the acquisition of: 1) CPG solutions in 2010 for $ 11mn and 2) 76.2% stake in Systime, the worlds largest JD Edwards solution provider.
When SYSTIME started integrating with KPIT from Q4FY12, it had a revenue run rate of roughly $ 13mn per quarter and an EBITDA margin of 5%. At the end of Q4FY13, SYSTIME has been able to achieve a revenue of $ 17mn per quarter with EBITDA margins at 15%. This has been largely driven by integration benefits and operational improvements.
Thus, despite an average quarterly de-growth of 8% in revenue from Cummins Account in last two quarters, the IES SBU has recorded a positive growth. We believe, along with SYSTIMEs growth in the business volume and margin levers such as utilization improvement and change in the business mix as SYSTIME has large onsite presence which can be moved offshore, KPIT will be in a position to maintain current margins.
Quantum Securities SAP SBU to be back on track gradually The SAP SBU contributed 28.9% of FY13 revenues and grew by 36.4% YoY to Rs 6457mn. The SBU offers transformational core ERP implementation and support along with business intelligence. Acquisition of Sparta Consulting Inc for $38 million in FY10 helped expand the geographical footprint of SAP practice to the US and to the energy & utilities segment vs India automotive and the industrial segment earlier. Implementation (mostly onsite) accounts for a majority (~85%) of SBU projects, while maintenance accounts for the rest, leading to lower than company average EBITDA margins.
FY13 saw a technology reset at SAP post its acquisition of SuccessFactors (SFSF), which led to a change in business mix of SAP, negatively impacting KPIT during Q2FY13 to Q4FY13. However, from May 1 st , 2013, KPIT has added a team of 25 SuccessFactors (SFSF) certified consultants under a business transfer agreement with a SFSF specialist company Learn 2 Perform (L2P). As a result, we expect the revenues to stop declining with improvement in profitability from Q1FY14 onwards.
As per the management commentary, KPIT is witnessing strong demand for SAP solutions from Energy & Utilities vertical in North America and the APAC geographies.
Improving Client Metrics provide growth visibility During FY13 KPIT added 14 new customers and the number of its active customers increased to 183 from 169 at the end FY12, while the customers with Revenue run rate of USD 1 mn+ have grown significantly from 59 to 78, driven by client mining. Although the Revenue contribution from its top customer Cummins has come down from 21.5% to 19%, the Revenues contribution from its top 10 clients has increased from 42.2% to 44%. KPIT is well positioned across its businesses with strong relationships with global players in Manufacturing, Automotive and Energy sectors, that enhances its client mining ability and provides growth visibility for its business going forward.
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Quantum Securities There is concern that various acquisitions have strained the companys cash flows in the recent past, with total earn out outgo expected at $ 25-28mn over the next 3 quarters. Till FY12, the management was able to deliver between 10-60% cumulative revenue growth in the acquired companies. Since 2010, KPIT has spent ~$ 75mn for acquisitions, which constitutes 40% of FY13 revenue. The validity of the acquisition strategy has to be seen in light of the growth achieved by the company vs other midcap IT companies. During the period of FY10-13, KPIT has grown at a revenue CAGR of 45.2% as against average 26.6% growth achieved by other midcap IT companies.
Source: Company, QS Research
Thus, we believe that company has mastered the art of acquiring small niche companies and scaling the business by client mining through wider offerings and increasing the offshore leverage. It has successfully integrated 5 companies in the last five years - Systime, Sparta, CPG, In2Soft and Harita. Incremental growth through acquisitions, the strategy adopted by the management, has worked for the company. Some examples of growth in major acquisitions are as follows:
Success in Acquisition-led strategy Name of Co Acquired Year Size FY12 Revenue Reason for acquisition $ mn $ mn Cummins Infotech 2002 1 66 Manufacturing Vertical focus Panex Consulting 2003 7.2 25 SAP Practice focus SolvCentral.com 2005 3.5 20 SAP Practice focus Pivolis 2005 1.5 5 Business Intelligence Practice CG Smith Software 2006 6.3 45 Auto Electronics Domain focus Harita TVS 2008 1 8 MEDS Practice Sparta Consulting 2009 25 72 SAP Practice/US Presence In2Soft 2010 4 6 Vehicle Diagnostics & Telematic Expertise CPG 2010 11 15 Oracle Consulting SYSTIMe 2011 50 53 Oracle Consulting, JDE Specialist Source: Company, QS Research
Well-defined Acquisition Criteria A key acquisition criterion for KPIT is to fill the service line and vertical capability gaps with depth in the management team of the target company. As per the management, the cash flows from M&A investments is normally recovered in the form of cash within 2.5 years. 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% 45.0% 50.0% K P I T Z e n s a r N I I T
T e c h . P e r s i s t e n t G e o m e t r i c I n f o t e c h H e x a w a r e M i n d t r e e Revenue CAGR FY10-13
Quantum Securities Revolo Update KPITs in-house built plug-in parallel hybrid solution, Revolo, has been in the process of conducting trials on 40 vehicles, which has been yielding encouraging results, with fuel savings between 30-40%. KPIT is working to bring the costs down further and also towards attaining regulatory approvals. We have not considered any revenue from Revolo for our projections, but this could act as a major catalyst to its revenue in the long term. Revolo is a 50:50 joint venture with Bharat Forge with the boards approval to invest upto Rs 500mn.
Outlook and Valuations We expect KPIT to post a net profit CAGR of 17.7% during FY13-15E with an average ROE of 18.2%. Our observation of guidance vs actual performance of the company during FY07-13 suggests that except for FY09 (missed), the actual performances have exceeded their guidance. Management has guided for 14-16% $- Revenue growth with 50bps improvement in EBITDA margins in FY14. The stock is currently trading at an attractive P/E multiple of 7.5x FY15E EPS of Rs 14.3. We value KPIT at 10x FY15E EPS and arrive at a target price of Rs 143. We recommend a BUY on KPIT Cummins Infosystems Ltd.
Higher Debtor Days During FY10-12, debtor days for KPIT have been higher than industry average on account of faster growth in receivables compared to revenues. During FY12, debtor days increased to 107 from 69 days in FY10. However, in FY13, debtors days have improved to 76 days driven by management control measures implemented during FY13.
Global Uncertainty Eurozone crisis is a cause of concern and any major upheaval can affect the short-term performance of most of the IT companies. As majority of KPITs business is from the US (76% of revenues in FY13), any downturn in the US economy can adversely impact its business. KPIT attempts to minimize this risk through diversification across geographies and better operating efficiencies.
Strategy Risk Based on Focus, Scale and Business Model Over-reliance on a single vertical (e.g. Automotive) may make KPITs business volatile or cyclical. Dependence on a few products also ties the company to the fortunes of these products and the companies that own these products. On the other hand, too much of diversification has the potential to impair KPITs competitive edge and may spread itself too thin. It should be noted that company does not have any presence in BFSI, which is most vulnerable in the current global economic scenario.
Foreign Exchange Rate Fluctuations As KPIT uses India as a major source of manpower, the exchange rate of the Rupee vis-a-vis the US Dollar and other currencies could affect its ability to compete on the basis of pricing. The movement in the Rupee exchange rate vis-a-vis US dollar could also result in fluctuation in the companys operating margins and have short term impact on profitability. Company currently has $ 69.7mn of hedges outstanding as on March 31, 2013 which are maturing in FY14 and have an average rate of Rs 52.07/$. Forex instruments with maturity of more than 3 months and considered effective hedges in accounting terms, are provided for as adjustment to the Reserves & Surplus in Balance Sheet, as per companys accounting policy.
Quantum Securities Company Background KPIT Cummins (KPIT) was incorporated in 1990 (IPO in 1999) as KPIT Infosystems and was later merged with Cummins Infotech to form KPIT Cummins Infosystems Ltd. KPIT provides product engineering solutions and IT & consulting solutions & services to customers across the manufacturing, automotive, industrial equipment, utilities and semiconductor sectors. The company focuses on select strategic business units (SBUs, integrated enterprise solutions, auto & engineering & SAP) and has filed for 40 patents in the automotive and semiconductor domains. Headquartered in Pune, KPIT has 8321 employees, eight development centres (mainly in Pune and Bangalore) and offices in 13 countries including in UK, China, Brazil, France, South Africa, Germany, US, Japan, Singapore and South Korea. In FY13, KPIT earned 75.9% of its revenues from the US, 13.2% from Europe and 10.9% from the rest of the world.
Revenue by Geography (%) Q4FY12 Q1FY13 Q2FY13 Q3FY13 Q4FY13 USA 73.3 76.2 76.4 74.7 76.3 EUROPE 14.4 14.6 12.9 13.9 11.3 ROW 12.3 9.2 10.7 11.4 12.3
Turnover Avg. Collection Period (Days) 83 107 76 80 90 Avg. Payment Period (Days) 62 69 60 50 50 Net Working Capital (Days) 21 38 17 30 40
Disclaimer: This document is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable. We do not make any representation or warranty as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. Opinions & theories expressed are based on present circumstances & judgment and are subject to change without notice. Quantum Securities Pvt. Ltd. accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this document or further communication given in relation to this document. Quantum Securities Pvt. Ltd. and its associates, directors, and/or employees may have positions in, and may effect transactions in securities mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform broking, investment banking and other banking services for these companies. If annualized returns are greater than 15%, then the stock is rated as BUY, between a range of 10-15% is rated as Accumulate. If annualized returns are lower than -15%, then the stock is rated as SELL, between a range of -10% to -15% is rated as Reduce. In the range of +/ (-) 10%, the stock is rated as Hold. However, within this zone we may choose to give an Accumulate, Reduce or Hold rating.