A contested idea of India

SIDHARTH BHATIA

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ANYONE following the pre-electoral Indian political scene solely through the media would reach the following conclusions: ( i) the next elections will be fought solely between three parties, the Congress, the BJP and the Aam Aadmi Party; (ii) there are only three leaders in India who really count: Narendra Modi, Arvind Kejriwal and a distant third, Rahul Gandhi; and (iii) Narendra Modi has already made it to the top job, the voting being a mere formality. Such a discourse reduces a complex, gigantic exercise, full of all kinds of permutations and combinations, combined with micro-local and national factors, to a personality contest a la the American Presidential elections. For the media, which likes to oversimplify complicated issues into a yes/no binary, the projection of faces over programmes and processes is convenient. But the Indian electorate, which
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has shown a remarkable proclivity to confound all kinds of experts and pollsters, works in its own mysterious way, as politicians have discovered over the years. It assesses each candidate, each party and each issue according to its own needs and aspirations and makes up its own mind a barrage of propaganda, even if backed by the biggest of budgets and the most sophisticated of PR techniques can only go this far and no further. And often the final results tend to stun even the most experienced election watcher. History has many examples of this, the most recent one being the elections in 2004. In most pre-election poll surveys and seat projections, the BJP and the National Democratic Alliance, which was then in power, was predicted to emerge as the single largest grouping with an overwhelming majority. The NDAwould bag 287-300 seats, the A.J. Nielsen poll predicted

breathlessly; India was shining, after all and the BJP, led by the wise Atal Bihari Vajpayee would reap the benefits of all the good it had done. The Congress, led by the political novice Sonia Gandhi was dismissed as a gone case, heading rapidly towards extinction in a new India that did not want anything to do with dynastic parties. The pundits concurred the political commentary in the media hailed Vajpayee as a visionary and great leader who had managed to tame the extremist tendencies of his own party and kept the shadowy RSS away from the decision making process.

hen the election results rolled in, the Congress emerged as the single largest party. The BJP was shellshocked; it had never expected this and such was its confidence about a victory that it had no plan B. Five years later, discarding all predictions of antiincumbency, the Congress won even more seats and the BJP sunk to even lower levels. It doesnt, therefore, pay to repose too much faith in polls or the learned analysis in television studios, where conformist opinions are encouraged and objective voices are often kept away. Any analysis of political winds must, therefore, go beyond just predictive numbers. Its far more useful to try and understand the state of play by looking at where the main parties stand, the inner debates within each party, the quality of the leadership and most of all, the alignment possibilities with regional parties. Both the BJP and the Congress are chasing down potential partners, however unlikely, to increase their final yield. Equally critical is to decode the aspirations of the voters and the larger needs of the nation, not merely one section or the other. Going by the noisy debates around us we might fall into the trap of thinking that foreign investment and the demands

of big business are all that matter, but surely India is much more than that. Indeed, a class divide of sorts seems to be emerging, with the urban rich and the middle class getting ready to desert the Congress after backing it five years ago. They see much promise in the BJP and specifically, in Narendra Modi as someone who will bring back the good old pre-2008 days when the Indian economy (along with the rest of the worlds) was roaring and India was gearing up to take its rightful place in the world as a superpower. The Congress is perceived as too close to the poor and the marginalized, throwing wasteful subsidies and freebies that are a drag on the economy. This story has taken on a life of its own after repeated telling; perhaps this is going to be an election that will see classbased and not just caste-led voting.

cal upper hand, they will be called in as the acceptable face so that allies can flock back to the alliance. And then, of course, there is the Aam Aadmi Party, the joker in the pack, which has blindsided everybody.

rying to understand pre-electoral politics is always difficult, but this time round it is particularly so. The two big parties, who had for many years carved up the national scene among themselves, are once again faced with the prospect of dealing with smaller, regional outfits which are snapping at their heels and threaten to upset all calculations. This throws up not just the prospect of the so-called Third Front, which springs into existence before every general election but also the possible muscle flexing by satraps who can demand a hefty pound of flesh for their support to a coalition. The Congress, appearing jaded and demoralized, is unable to muster enough energy to make a fight of it. The Bharatiya Janata Party, despite its remarkable ability to drum up hype around its prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi, is still nervous that there may not be a wave in his favour. There are enough leaders in the BJP itself who hope that in the event of the party falling short of some number that gives him a tacti-

he pollsters and the pundits have written off the Congress indeed, they are almost wishing this to happen. There is talk of the Grand Old Party posting its worst ever performance in general elections, perhaps failing to reach even a three figure mark, a humiliating fall if ever there was one. Certainly the scenario looks bleak, given that it has been steadily losing allies and even the existing ones, such as Sharad Pawars Nationalist Congress Party as well as the DMK, are getting restive. In state after state the Congress appears to be facing formidable challenges, either from the BJP or from local parties and much of its older goodwill, which helped it win in 2004 and then again in 2009 seems to have been frittered away. The plethora of scams, under the watch of a prime minister who seemed unable to take any difficult decisions, has battered the image of not just the UPA government but also Congress itself. Over the past five years, the Congress has not just upset the growth obsessed middle class, the corporate sector and the chattering classes, but also made political enemies in crucial states such as Andhra Pradesh, which helped it perform spectacularly in 2009. Jagan Reddys petulant rebellion could cost the Congress heavily, though the creation of Telangana, virtually in the dying moments of the government, may just about salvage some pride in a state that matters a lot in the overall scheme of things. As for the crucial states like UP where the electoral performance could make or break any claimants hopes of reaching Delhi, the Congress is finding itself
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slipping again, after a reasonably good performance the last time. Yet, even as its opponents want a Congress-mukt Bharat, some perspective might help. The party has chief ministers in no less than 12 states, including in large ones like Maharashtra and Karnataka. Compare this with the BJPs six, with the sixth (Rajasthan) being added in the last elections. It is not the lost cause its opponents think it is time and again, when it was given up as dead, the most recent instance being in 2004, it has bounced back. It may be heading for the opposition benches this time round, but perhaps it will use the period to rebuild itself organizationally and fix some of the structural problems that are now endemic to it.

have given Modi a clean chit have been deployed to undermine their significance. On his part, Modi has tried to underplay the Hindu card, a tactic aimed at not offending those who may buy into him as a pro-reforms leader but may be queasy at blatantly communal messaging. The BJP knows that the Hindutva faithful will vote for the party in any case, and large sections of neo-converts are prepared to overlook this blot; the tantalizing question is, will fence sitters flock in sufficient numbers to Modi to pull him through? The BJP and its mentor the RSS believes they will.

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he BJP, on the other hand, seems to be full of gusto and confidence. Its triumphalism is fanned by a friendly media and a business community that is fully invested in Narendra Modi as a man who means, well, business. The paeans to his leadership qualities, his decisiveness and his ability to cut through the clutter of bureaucracy to deliver investor friendly results are all attractive attributes for tycoons. In their assessment, it is a black and white situation the Congress is too enamoured of wasteful social expenditure and too obsessed with socialistic programmes and has neither been able to manage inflation nor push growth. On the other hand, Modis Gujarat Model which is often interpreted as unhindered breaks for corporate investment is perceived as the best thing for business and therefore for India. To this constituency the horrific riots of 2002, which at the very least were a signal failure of governance and decisive administrative qualities, matter little. All kinds of arguments, including that was in the past, what about 1984and now, increasingly, the courts

ut, the well funded campaign, the vast social media campaign, the rahrah rallies and bombastic speeches gloss over an inconvenient truth Modis path to the summit is paved with serious difficulties, not the least of them being dissent within the party. It is no secret that many senior leaders in the BJP are extremely unhappy at the rise of Modi and see him as a threat. Patriarch L.K. Advanis resignation after Modi was named as head of the campaign committee last June may have now been glossed over, but the wily old man could still play an ace he hopes that in the event the BJP fails to get a sufficient number of seats, say 200, he could still be the acceptable face around whom some regional parties could rally. The irony of Advani, the architect of the rath yatra of 1992 being seen as a moderate is inescapable, but it also suggests that others, especially Modi, are seen as extreme within the party. Modis biggest hurdle, therefore, is getting enough seats to stake his claim. The BJP won 116 in 2009, with the voting percentage at a little over 18.8 per cent, a drastic fall from its best ever performance in 1998 when it obtained 25.6 per cent which translated into 183 seats. In Indias first past

the post system, a swing of a percentage point can mean many less or more seats. The BJP, which is ahead in the media and perception battle, will have to drastically increase those voting percentages. How difficult that task is can be gleaned from the fact that the party has little or no presence in the South, East and North East of India, which account for nearly 220 seats. That leaves it to produce a miracle out of the 322 seats in the rest of India. Its hopes are pinned on Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, where communal riots in Muzzafarnagar are expected to yield it results thanks to polarization, a ploy that is at once risky and dangerous. The multi-cornered contest in UP and Bihar cannot be good news for the BJP, which does better whenever it faces just one opponent.

erhaps sensing this inherent weakness, the bigger regional parties, such as the AIADMK and Trinamool Congress whose seats will be crucial for the BJP, are already distancing themselves from any suggestion of an alignment with a Modi-led BJP. Each of those regional leaders especially the three ladies Mayawati, Jayalalithaa and Mamata Banerjee are dreaming of the day when the post-election arithmetic catapults them into the top job on the basis of their partys electoral performance. For Jayalalithaa, Mamata Banerjee, Mayawati and even perhaps Naveen Patnaik, the possibility of a hung Parliament opens up tremendous possibilities, reminiscent of 1996, when the regional outfits cobbled together a coalition whose only virtue was that it was anti-Congress and anti-BJP. Out of this motley crew came out a compromise candidate H.D. Deve Gowda, since none of the bigger leaders would agree to any of their peers become the prime minister. This time round there is no such inhi-

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bition leaders like Jayalalithaa, confident of posting a handsome result, have already let it be known that like Barkis, they are willing. Indeed, her open flirtation with Tamil chauvinism by unilaterally announcing the release of the killers of Rajiv Gandhi, whose death sentence was commuted by the Supreme Court, is a clear indication that she will do anything to woo more and more voters.

nto this somewhat confused circus ring, the Aam Aadmi Party has thrown in its white Gandhi topi. After it confounded all expectations in the Delhi state polls and ran a government for 49 days, AAP has entered the national arena with renewed enthusiasm. The guerrilla politics it practices, a hit and run style of accusations, wild charges and political stunts, have got it tremendous media traction, catapulting what was essentially a small, Delhi movement into a national phenomenon. Not a day passes with yet another exclusive interview with its top leaders and not unsurprisingly, in keeping with the narrative of this being a personality-led election, Arvind Kejriwal is now being touted as a putative prime minister on the basis of his party getting between 30-40 seats. If at all that were to happen, it would stymie Narendra Modis ascension to the top, since the AAP would cut into the BJPs votes as much as the Congresss. At the same time, some of the exuberance surrounding the emergence of AAP must be tempered by the fact that a Lok Sabha election is vastly different from one in a city state like Delhi. AAP may boast of brand recognition and even some popularity in urban India, but will it translate into votes in cities like Bangalore, Bombay or even Ahmedabad, where it has no organization to boast of and no understanding of local issues? Will voters be impressed by AAPs constant refrain

of how corrupt everyone else is? Already the upper middle class, which was taken up by his sincerity of purpose and wanted to stay away from the Congress and the BJP, is uneasily drifting away, appalled at the blatantly racist behaviour and vigilantism demonstrated by AAP worthies. The Aam Aadmi Party will also have to eventually retool its programme so that both the rich ex-banker and the pro-poor activist can feel part of the larger purpose of the party. Making one speech before a gathering of businessmen and another, completely opposite one to the mass voter, is a ploy that eventually collapses under the weight of its own contradictions. And the constant barrage of accusations against industrialists, politicians, bureaucrats and occasionally the media, becomes tiresome if not backed by evidence. It may please its followers for some time, but despite the entry of celebrities, the party is an untested player in the national electoral stakes.

redicting outcomes in these elections is obviously risky, no matter which way the pre-poll surveys point. Growth, the economy, equity, communalism, corruption no one campaign platform has nationwide traction to draw voters to any one party. The leading faces, despite their ubiquity and their best efforts, have only limited reach and attraction to the over 700 million voters in this vast land. The crowds may come to the rallies, laugh at how politicians mock their rivals, nod their heads when someone speaks of a grave issue and even be impressed by the promises that are made. But they will only show their hand on voting day. Yet, the contours of some fault lines are already visible north/south, rich/poor, rural/urban and at a more fundamental level, of a contested idea of India. Which is what makes this a very significant election.
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