The Kenya

Meteorological Service (KMS) has noted with concern the content of information
related to El-Nino conditions that has been disseminated to the general public in
the last few wees! This is being done without reference to KMS" the Service that
is authori#ed to provide guidance on the current status and development of El-Nino
conditions and its potential impacts on the
rainfall patterns in Kenya! The information
is not only confusing Kenyans but also creating
an$iety and panic! %t is therefore imperative that technical advice be sort from
KMS prior to such information being disseminated to the general public!
El-Nino is a phenomenon in the e&uatorial 'acific (cean that has an influence on
Kenya)s rainfall patterns especially during the *Short +ains* ((ct-Nov-,ec)
season! -owever" it is not a . to . relationship because other factors also play their
role! %n other words" the fact that an El-Nino occurs does not always give rise to
intense rainfall!
March-/pril-May-0une is a transition period for the possible development of El-
Nino conditions whose maturity is normally in ,ecember! The current pro1ections
from 2lobal models are for a high possibility of an El-Nino developing to full
maturity in the e&uatorial 'acific (cean! -owever" the indications for the full
development and maturity of El-nino conditions will be clearer in /ugust! 3y
coincidence" this is the time KMS will issue the outloo for the 45.6 *Short +ains*
((ct-Nov-,ec) rainfall season in the country!
%t is also important to tae note that not all El-Ninos result in what was e$perienced
in .77897: in terms of heavy rainfall in the country! %n the minds of many
Kenyans" a mention of El-Nino occurrence reflects bac to the .77897: ind of
rainfall patterns in (ctober-November-,ecember period! Note that we had
subse&uent El-Nino events in 455495;" 455<958 and 45579.5! To ordinary people"
these went unnoticed because their impacts were not as that of .77897: El-Nino
because of other factors!

The Service is monitoring the evolutions of the event every wee and month and
will eep Kenyans updated on the potential development! The seasonal outloo to
be issued at the end of /ugust 9 early September will provide a clear picture as to
how El-Nino and other factors will influence the rainfall patterns to be e$perienced
in (ct-Nov-,ec 45.6!
REPUBLIC OF KENYA
MINISTRY OF ENVIRONMENT, WATER AND NATURAL RESOURCES
STATE DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT AND NATURAL RESOURCES
KENYA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE
Dagoretti Corner, Ngong Rd, P. O. Box 30259, 00100 GPO, Nairobi, Kenya
Telephone: 25 !0" 20 3#$%##0&% ' 3#%$95%'$0 ' 3#%3$#2
Mobile: 25!0"%2255153' 25!0"%225515
Fax: 25 !0" 20 3#%$955'3#%%3%3'3#$%###'3#%501
e-mail: dire(tor)*eteo.go.+e, Webi!e: -tt.:''///.*eteo.go.+e
.
Ref No: ADVISORY ON DEVELOPMENT OF EL-NINO-01
Issue Date: 11 June 2014
The latest 2lobal model outputs for the development of El-Nino are not showing a
=Mother> of all El-Ninos occurring! /pparently" this is the sort of the information
being communicated to the Kenyan public! Members of public are" in this conte$t"
urged to treat such information with utmost care and see clarification from this
Service!
James G. Kono!"
A. DIRECTOR OF KENYA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE # PERMANENT REPRESENTATIVE OF
KENYA $IT% T%E $ORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANI&ATION
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