Tony Blair: Iraq's

insurgency stems from Syria

Violent insurgency in Iraq is the "predictable" result of the west's failure to intervene in Syria, not of the
2003 invasion of Iraq, ony !lair declares in a renewed call for "ilitary action#
SUNDAY 15 JUNE 2014
The former prime minister rejected as "i!arre" ar"#ments that $ra% &o#'d
e more sta'e and peacef#' toda( if the US)ac*ed &ar+ &hich c'aimed the
'i,es of 1-. U/ personne'+ had not happened0
And he said that #n'ess the internationa' comm#nit( &as prepared to
o,ercome p#'ic re'#ctance and confront the e1tremists "hard+ &ith force"+
the conse%#ences &o#'d e more serio#s sti''0
2r 3'air ) no& a 2idd'e East peace en,o( ) said $ra% &as "in morta' dan"er"
#t pinned the 'ame on the sectarianism of the 2a'i*i "o,ernment and the
spread of S(ria4s r#ta' three)(ear ci,i' &ar0
S&eepin" territoria' "ains for the radica' S#nni fi"hters from the a')5aeda
offshoot $s'amic State of $ra% and the 6e,ant 7$sis8 ha,e refoc#sed attention
on the h#"e'( contro,ersia' 2009 $ra% &ar0
3#t 2r 3'air hit ac* at critics in an ei"ht)pa"e essa( on his &esite+ sa(in"
a' 5aida had een a "eaten force" in $ra% as recent'( as three (ears a"o
#t the chance of peace &as s%#andered ( 3a"hdad0
$hoices are 'all pretty ugly'
"3( a'' means ar"#e ao#t the &isdom of ear'ier decisions+" he &rote0"3#t it
is the decisions no& that &i'' matter0
"The choices are a'' prett( #"'(+ it is tr#e0 3#t for three (ears &e ha,e
&atched S(ria descend into the a(ss and as it is "oin" do&n+ it is s'o&'(
#t s#re'( &rappin" its cords aro#nd #s p#''in" #s do&n &ith it0
":e ha,e to p#t aside the differences of the past and act no& to sa,e the
f#t#re0
":here the e1tremists are fi"htin"+ the( ha,e to e co#ntered hard+ &ith
force0
"$t did not mean another in,asion+ he said ) as US ;resident 3arac*
<ama considers other mi'itar( options s#ch as air stri*es0
"There are masses of responses &e can ma*e short of that0 3#t the( need
to *no& that &here,er the(4re en"a"ed in terror+ &e &i'' e hittin" them0"
2r 3'air said the $ra% assa#'t had een p'anned and prepared in the S(ria
conf'ict !one and &as the "predicta'e and ma'i"n effect" of a''o&in" that
sit#ation to e e1p'oited ( e1tremists0
'%ilful' to argue otherwise
"There is000no do#t that a major pro1imate ca#se of the ta*eo,er of 2os#'
( $sis is the sit#ation in S(ria0 To ar"#e other&ise is &i'f#'+" he said0
Air stri*es a"ainst the Assad re"ime had een on the ta'e 'ast s#mmer
o,er its #se of chemica' &eapons #t a =ommons ,ote a"ainst the idea
he'ped end the prospect of action0
"$ #nderstand a'' the reasons fo''o&in" Af"hanistan and $ra% &h( p#'ic
opinion &as so hosti'e to in,o',ement+" 2r 3'air &rote0
"Action in S(ria did not and need not e as in those mi'itar( en"a"ements0
3#t e,er( time &e p#t off action+ the action &e &i'' e forced to ta*e &i'' e
#'timate'( "reater0"
>e &rote? "The moderate and sensi'e e'ements of the S(ria opposition
sho#'d e "i,en the s#pport the( need@ Assad sho#'d *no& he cannot &in
an o#tri"ht ,ictor(@ and the e1tremist "ro#ps+ &hether in S(ria or $ra%+
sho#'d e tar"eted+ in coordination and &ith the a"reement of the Ara
co#ntries0
">o&e,er #npa'ata'e this ma( seem+ the a'ternati,e is &orse0"
2r 3'air said there &as a need to "'earn proper'(" the 'essons of the 'ast 10
(ears and #r"ed peop'e to accept that the ,io'ent e1tremism in the re"ion
&as not a res#'t of :estern inter,ention0
'&ull'blown sectarian war'
$f Saddam had een 'eft in p'ace+ he s#""ested+ S(ria4s e1amp'e sho&ed
the dictator &o#'d proa'( ha,e "one on to de,e'op &eapons of mass
destr#ction0And there &as 'itt'e do#t that he &o#'d ha,e faced an #prisin"
as part of the Ara Sprin" ) ris*in" a "f#'')'o&n sectarian &ar across the
re"ion"0
"So it is a i!arre readin" of the ca#'dron that is the 2idd'e East toda( to
c'aim that #t for the remo,a' of Saddam &e &o#'d not ha,e a crisis0
"The fact is that as a res#'t of the &a( these societies ha,e de,e'oped and
eca#se $s'amism of ,ario#s descriptions ecame the foca' point of
opposition to oppression+ the remo,a' of the dictatorship is on'( the
e"innin" not the end of the cha''en"e0
"<nce the re"ime chan"es+ then o#t come po#rin" a'' the tensions ) tria'+
ethnic and of co#rse ao,e a'' re'i"io#s@ and the re#i'din" of the co#ntr(+
&ith f#nctionin" instit#tions and s(stems of "o,ernment+ ecomes
incredi'( hard0"
>e compared $ra% &ith 6i(a+ &here the internationa' comm#nit( forced o#t
dictator 2#ammar Aaddafi #t did not send in troops and &hich &as no&
,io'ent+ #nsta'e and a so#rce of &ider re"iona' tro#'e0
And S(ria ) &here the &or'd ca''ed for re"ime chan"e #t dec'ined to
enforce it ) &as "in the &orst state of a''"+ he s#""ested0
2r 3'air comp'ained of inconsistenc( in the approach to each0
"Aaddafi+ &ho in 2009 had "i,en #p his :2D and cooperated &ith #s in the
fi"ht a"ainst terrorism+ is remo,ed ( #s on the asis he threatens to *i'' his
peop'e #t Assad+ &ho act#a''( *i''s his peop'e on a ,ast sca'e inc'#din"
&ith chemica' &eapons+ is 'eft in po&er0"