Arms and Affluence Military Acquisitions in The Asia-Pacific Region

Arms and Affluence: Military Acquisitions in the Asia-Pacific Region
Author(s): Desmond Ball

Source: International Security, Vol. 18, No. 3 (Winter, 1993-1994), pp. 78-112
Published by: The MIT Press
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A r m s a n d A ffluen ce Des m on d Ba ll
Milita r y A cquis ition s in the
A s ia -Pa cific Region
i
By
the ea r ly 1990s ,
the A s ia -Pa cific r egion ha d exper ien ced a s us ta in ed build -up of m od er n
con ven tion a l wea pon s s ys tem s for the better pa r t of a d eca d e. The fa ct tha t
this build -up con tin ued r ega r d les s of the en d of the Cold Wa r -in d eed , in
m a n y coun tr ies in the r egion , it quicken ed d ur in g the la te 1980s -ha s been
a ca us e of both con cer n a n d won d er m en t. A ccor d in g to s om e r ecen t pr es s
a ccoun ts : "A s ia is r us hin g to a r m its elf a s n ever befor e";1 "Southea s t A s ia n
coun tr ies ha ve r ecen tly gon e on a m ilita r y s pen d in g s pr ee";2 Chin a is a ls o
n ow en ga ged in a n "a r m s buyin g s pr ee";3 "A s ia 's a r m or ies a r e bulgin g, . . .
con ven tion a l a r m s a boun d , a n d m or e a r e flood in g in ";4 a n d ther e is a "n ew
A s ia n a r m s r a ce" un d er wa y which "bod es ill for a r egion a lr ea d y r a cked by
a n cien t a n im os ities a n d bor d er d is putes . "5 Mor eover , for m a n y com m en ta -
tor s , "the n ew A s ia n a r m s r a ce" is n ot on ly pr ofoun d ly d is tur bin g; it a ls o
d efies r a tion a l expla n a tion . The Econ om is t r ecen tly obs er ved tha t the en d of
the Cold Wa r "ha s br ought per ha ps the d eepes t pea ce tha t A s ia n s ha ve
kn own this cen tur y," a n d then pos ed the ques tion : "Wha t a ccoun ts for the
Des m on d Ba ll is a Pr ofes s or in the Str a tegic a n d Defen ce Stud ies Cen tr e, A us tr a lia n Na tion a l Un iver s ity,
Ca n ber r a . He is the a uthor of Politics a n d For ce Levels : The Str a tegic Mis s ile Pr ogr a m of the
Ken n ed y A d m in is tr a tion (Un iver s ity of Ca lifor n ia Pr es s , 1980); Ca n Nuclea r Wa r Be Con tr olled ?
(In ter n a tion a l In s titute for Str a tegic Stud ies , 1981); Pin e Ga p: A us tr a lia a n d the U.S. Geos ta tion a r y
Sign a ls In telligen ce Sa tellite Pr ogr a m (A llen & Un win , 1988); Build in g Blocks for Region a l Secu-
r ity:>A n A us tr a lia n Per s pective on Con fid en ce a n d Secur ity Build in g Mea s ur es (CSBMs ) in the
A s ia /Pa cific Region (A us tr a lia n Na tion a l Un iver s ity, 1991); a n d Sign a ls In telligen ce in the Pos t-
Cold Wa r Er a : Developm en ts in the A s ia -Pa cific Region (In s titute of Southea s t A s ia n Stud ies , 1993).
This is a r evis ed ver s ion of a pa per pr epa r ed for pr es en ta tion a t the Seven th A s ia -Pa cific Roun d ta ble
on Con fid en ce Build in g a n d Con flict Red uction in the Pa cific, or ga n is ed by the A SEA N In s titutes of
Str a tegic a n d In ter n a tion a l Stud ies (A SEA N ISIS), a n d held in Kua la Lum pur , Ma la ys ia , Jun e
6-9, 1993. It is publis hed with the per m is s ion of ISIS Ma la ys ia a n d the Roun d ta ble.
1. Jon a tha n Sikes , "A s ia Puts Its Wea lth in Milita r y," Wa s hin gton Tim es , Febr ua r y 12, 1990, p. 7.
2. Ja m es Cla d a n d Pa tr ick Ma r s ha ll, "Southea s t A s ia 's Quiet A r m s Ra ce," Chica go Tr ibun e, Ma y
23, 1992, p. 21.
3. Ta i Min g Cheun g, "Loa d ed Wea pon s : Chin a in A r m s Buyin g Spr ee in For m er Soviet Un ion ,"
Fa r Ea s ter n Econ om ic Review, Septem ber 3, 1992, p. 21.
4. "A s ia 's A r m s Ra ce," Econ om is t, Febr ua r y 20, 1993, p. 19.
5. Cla d a n d Ma r s ha ll, "Southea s t A s ia 's Quiet A r m s Ra ce."
In ter n a tion a l Secur ity, Vol. 18, No. 3 (Win ter 1993/94),
pp.
78-112
? 1994 by the Pr es id en t a n d Fellows of Ha r va r d College a n d the Ma s s a chus etts In s titute of Techn ology.
78
Milita r y A cquis ition s in the A s ia -Pa cific Region | 79
pa r a d ox of A s ia fur ious ly s tr a ppin g on the a r m our when it ha s s eld om been
m or e a t pea ce?"6
Wha t lies behin d this a la r m is t r hetor ic? This a r ticle d es cr ibes the over a ll
s ca le a n d pr in cipa l cha r a cter is tics of the r egion a l m ilita r y a cquis ition s d ur in g
this per iod of r ela tively s us ta in ed build -up; it offer s a r a n ge of expla n a tion s
for the a cquis ition s ; it a s s es s es the im plica tion s of the a cquis ition s for r egion a l
s ecur ity; a n d it d is cus s es the pr os pects for con s tr a in ts , con tr ols , a n d con fi-
d en ce-build in g m ea s ur es in the r egion . It con clud es tha t ther e is n o a r m s
r a ce un d er wa y in the r egion , but tha t ther e a r e s om e d is tur bin g fea tur es of
the cur r en t a cquis ition pr ogr a m s , a n d tha t thes e m us t be a d d r es s ed by r e-
gion a l s ecur ity policy-m a ker s a n d a n a lys ts if they a r e n ot to over whelm the
m or e pos itive a s pects of the em er gin g pos t-Cold Wa r s ecur ity a r chitectur e
in the r egion .
Region a l Defen s e Spen d in g
Thr ough the m id a n d la te 1980s , r egion a l d efen s e expen d itur e in cr ea s ed a t
a n un pr eced en ted r a te. Given the d eclin e in d efen s e s pen d in g in the Un ited
Sta tes , Eur ope, a n d the for m er Soviet Un ion s in ce 1989, this ha s r es ulted in
a d oublin g of the A s ia n s ha r e of the wor ld m ilita r y expen d itur e over the pa s t
d eca d e. A lthough gr os s figur es s hould be tr ea ted ca r efully, it is likely tha t
d efen s e expen d itur es in Ea s t A s ia a n d A us tr a la s ia in 1992 a m oun ted to s om e
$105 billion (figur es a r e in U.S. d olla r s un les s other wis e in d ica ted ), a n d tha t
this will in cr ea s e to m or e tha n $130 billion by 1995-by which tim e it will
equa l tha t of a ll Eur ope (n ot coun tin g the s ta tes of the for m er Soviet Un ion ).
In the ca s e of a r m s im por ts to the r egion , A s ia 's s ha r e of wor ld expen d itur e
on a r m s tr a n s fer s r os e fr om 15.5 per cen t in 1982 to 34 per cen t in 1991.7 In
1991, thr ee coun tr ies in the A s ia -Pa cific r egion -South Kor ea , Chin a a n d
Tha ila n d -r a n ked in the top ten a r m s im por ter s in ter m s of con tr a cts con -
7. Ia n A n thon y, A gn es Cour a d d es A llen beck, Pa olo Miggia n o, Elis a beth Skon s , a n d Her ber t
Wulf, "The Tr a d e in Ma jor Con ven tion a l Wea pon s ," in Stockholm In ter n a tion a l Pea ce Res ea r ch
In s titute (SIPRI), SIPRI Yea r book 1992: Wor ld A r m a m en ts a n d Dis a r m a m en t (Oxfor d : Oxfor d Un i-
ver s ity Pr es s , 1992), p. 308.
In ter n a tion a l Secur ity 18:3 | 80
clud ed ; two other s -Ta iwa n a n d Bur m a -r a n ked in the top ten in ter m s of
the va lue of a r m s a ctua lly d eliver ed .8
Ther e a r e, of cour s e, s ign ifica n t d iffer en ces in the r a tes of gr owth of d e-
fen s e expen d itur es thr oughout this va s t a n d d is pa r a te r egion . In Nor thea s t
A s ia , wher e d efen s e bud gets a r e gen er a lly a n or d er of m a gn itud e gr ea ter
tha n in Southea s t A s ia ($10-35 billion , a s com pa r ed to $1-2 billion for A SEA N
coun tr ies ), the r a te of gr owth r em a in s ver y high. In South Kor ea , for exa m -
ple, the d efen s e bud get for fis ca l yea r (FY) 1993 is 9.8 per cen t higher tha n
the FY 1992 bud get ($12.3 billion com pa r ed to $11.2 billion ).9 In Ta iwa n , the
d efen s e bud get for FY 1994 will be 12.6 per cen t gr ea ter tha n tha t for FY
1993.10 In Chin a , the in cr ea s e for 1993 is 12.5 per cen t, which is the four th
con s ecutive yea r tha t it ha s gr own by a d ouble-d igit per cen ta ge.1" On ly in
Ja pa n ha s the r a te of gr owth s lowed , with the two per cen t gr owth in 1993
bein g the s m a lles t in cr ea s e in 33 yea r s .12 On the other ha n d , in Southea s t
A s ia , the pictur e is r a ther d iffer en t, with the high gr owth r a tes of the la te
1980s ha vin g given wa y to little r ea l gr owth in m os t d efen s e bud gets s in ce
1991 (a pa r t fr om Sin ga por e, wher e the d efen s e bud get is pegged to s ix
per cen t of gr os s d om es tic pr od uct [GDP] a n d ha s ther efor e con tin ued to
in cr ea s e with the gr owth of GDP, a n d Bur m a , wher e the r epr es s ive r egim e
ha s a n n oun ced tha t its d efen s e bud get will in cr ea s e by n ea r ly 10 per cen t in
1992-93).13 Never theles s , even wher e r ea l gr owth ha s s topped , the in cr ea s es
thr Qugh the la te 1980s per m itted m uch la r ger a lloca tion s to ca pita l a cquis ition
pr ogr a m s , a n d thes e will gen er a lly be s us ta in ed thr ough the 1990s .
Ther e a r e s ever a l im por ta n t fea tur es of thes e d efen s e m od er n iza tion pr o-
gr a m s . In Southea s t A s ia , d efen s e for ces ha ve been r es tr uctur ed fr om
coun ter -in s ur gen cy ca pa bilities to m od er n , high-techn ology for ces , with in -
cr ea s ed em pha s is on m a r itim e (in clud in g la n d -ba s ed a ir ) ca pa bilities . Even
South Kor ea , wher e the pr in cipa l m ilita r y thr ea t is a la n d offen s ive a cr os s
the Dem ilita r ized Zon e (DMZ) by the Nor th Kor ea n A r m y, pla n s to a lloca te
s om e 60 per cen t of the (in cr ea s in g) d efen s e bud get over the n ext five yea r s
8. Richa r d F. Gr im m ett, Con ven tion a l A r m s Tr a n s fer s to the Thir d Wor ld , 1984-1991 (Wa s hin gton ,
D.C.: Con gr es s ion a l Res ea r ch Ser vice, Libr a r y of Con gr es s , July 20, 1992), pp. 60, 72.
9. A n thon y Spellm a n , "A s ia n Repor ts ," A r m ed For ces Jour n a l In ter n a tion a l, Ma r ch 1993, p. 19.
10. "Milita r y Bud get Pr ojected for NT $300 Billion ," Chin a Pos t, Septem ber 15, 1992, p. 16.
11. Pa ul Lewis , "Chin es e Bud get Soa r s for 4th Yea r ," Defen s e News , Ma r ch 22-28, 1993, p. 13.
12. "Defen s e Bud get In cr ea s e Sm a ll," Cur r en t News (Wa s hin gton , D.C.: Cur r en t News A n a lys is
a n d Res ea r ch Ser vice, Office of the A s s is ta n t Secr eta r y of Defen s e for Public A ffa ir s , Depa r tm en t
of Defen s e), A pr il 1, 1993, p. 14.
13. Pa ul Bea ver , "Fla s hpoin ts ," Ja n e's Defen ce Weekly, Jun e 6, 1992, p. 986.
to the A ir For ce a n d Na vy, r a ther tha n "the us ua l 40 per cen t."'14 In Ja pa n ,
the Ma r itim e a n d A ir For ces a ccoun ted for s om e 72.1 per cen t (37.6 a n d 34.5
per cen t r es pectively) of the pr ocur em en t vote for the thr ee s er vices in 1992.15
Thr oughout the r egion , ther e is a s ign ifica n t d egr ee of con s is ten cy in the
a cquis ition pr ogr a m s . The m or e pa r ticula r en ha n cem en ts in clud e:
* n a tion a l com m a n d , con tr ol a n d com m un ica tion s (C3) s ys tem s ;
* n a tion a l s tr a tegic a n d ta ctica l in telligen ce s ys tem s ;
* m ulti-r ole fighter a ir cr a ft, with m a r itim e a tta ck ca pa bilities a s well a s a ir -
s uper ior ity ca pa bilities (e.g., F-16s a n d F-18s );
* m a r itim e s ur veilla n ce a ir cr a ft (e.g., P-3s );
* a n ti-s hip m is s iles (e.g., Ha r poon a n d Exocet);
* m od er n s ur fa ce com ba ta n ts -d es tr oyer s , fr iga tes , ocea n pa tr ol ves s els ;
* s ubm a r in es ;
* electr on ic wa r fa r e (EW) s ys tem s ;
* r a pid d eploym en t for ces .
Som e Expla n a tion s of the Region a l A cquis ition Pr ogr a m s
Ther e is n o s in gle-fa ctor expla n a tion for the r obus t a r m s a cquis ition pr ogr a m s
of the pa s t d eca d e. Ra ther , ther e a r e a t lea s t a d ozen fa ctor s in volved , which
ha ve obta in ed to gr ea ter or les s er exten ts a n d in va r yin g com bin a tion s in
d iffer en t coun tr ies a t d iffer en t tim es d ur in g this per iod . Mor eover , m ilita r y
a n d geos tr a tegic fa ctor s , s uch a s thr ea t per ception s or a r m s r a ce d yn a m ics ,
ha ve gen er a lly been les s d eter m in a te tha n other con s id er a tion s .
ECONOMIC GROWTH A ND INCREA SING RESOURCES FOR DEFENSE
Mos t of Ea s t A s ia ha s exper ien ced extr a or d in a r y econ om ic gr owth over the
pa s t couple of d eca d es , which ha s pr ovid ed the la r ges s e for the wea pon s
a cquis ition pr ogr a m s . In d eed , it s eem s tha t the r a tes of econ om ic gr owth
pr ovid e the s in gle bes t in d ica tor of in cr ea s es in d efen s e expen d itur es
thr oughout the r egion . In the ca s e of the A SEA N coun tr ies , for exa m ple, a
s er ies of s tud ies of the r ela tion s hip between d efen s e expen d itur e a n d eco-
n om ic gr owth fr om the ea r ly 1960s thr ough to the la te 1980s ha ve con s is ten tly
14. "Bigger Role for For ces ," Ja n e's Defen ce Weekly, A ugus t 8, 1992,
p.
22.
15. Ken s uke A ba ta , "JDA Spen d s Les s Yen on Mor e Con tr a cts ," Ja n e's Defen ce Weekly, Ma y 8,
1993, p. 15.
s hown tha t ther e is a clos e a n d pos itive cor r ela tion between them .16 Thos e
coun tr ies with the highes t r a tes of gr owth of gr os s n a tion a l pr od uct (GNP),
s uch a s Sin ga por e a n d Ma la ys ia , ha ve ha d the highes t r a tes of in cr ea s e of
d efen s e s pen d in g, while thos e with s lower econ om ic gr owth, s uch a s In d o-
n es ia a n d the Philippin es , ha ve ha d the s lowes t in cr ea s es in d efen s e s pen d -
in g.
In fa ct, while the cor r ela tion between d efen s e expen d itur e a n d GNP
gr owth ha s been ver y clos e, with in cr ea s es in GNP bein g r eflected in pr o-
por tion a l in cr ea s es in d efen s e expen d itur e, the pr opor tion a lity ha s been
gen er a lly les s tha n un ity. In other wor d s , the r a te of gr owth of d efen s e
expen d itur e ha s gen er a lly been les s tha n the r a te of gr owth of GNP, s o tha t
d efen s e s pen d in g a s a per cen ta ge of GNP ha s gen er a lly fa llen over the pa s t
d eca d e. In the ca s e of In d on es ia , for exa m ple, it fell fr om 3 per cen t in 1981
to 1.6 per cen t in 1991; in Ma la ys ia , it fell fr om 5.8 per cen t in 1981 to 3.4
per cen t in 1991; a n d in Tha ila n d , it fell fr om 3.8 per cen t in 1981 to 2.6 per cen t
in 1991. On ly in Sin ga por e ha s the per cen ta ge r em a in ed fa ir ly con s ta n t-a n d
tha t is pr ecis ely beca us e the d efen s e bud get ha s been officia lly "pegged " a t
6 per cen t of GDP.17
THE REQUIREMENTS OF ENHA NCED SELF-RELIA NCE
In the light of the en d of the Cold Wa r a n d the cha n gin g r egion a l s ecur ity
en vir on m en t, m a n y coun tr ies in Ea s t A s ia ha ve d eter m in ed to en ha n ce their
d efen s e s elf-r elia n ce to en a ble them to d ea l better with r egion a l con tin gen cies
on the ba s is of their own r es our ces . (Som e coun tr ies , of cour s e, s uch a s
Chin a , Vietn a m a n d In d on es ia , ha d a d opted policies of s elf-r elia n ce or "n a -
tion a l r es ilien ce" in the 1960s .)
For m os t coun tr ies in the r egion (pa r tia l exception s a r e Nor th a n d South
Kor ea , Chin a a n d the coun tr ies of In d ochin a a n d South A s ia ), in cr ea s in g
s elf-r elia n ce a ga in s t r egion a l con tin gen cies in volves a pr im a r y em pha s is on
d efen s e of the m a r itim e a ppr oa ches . In the ca s e of A us tr a lia 's d efen s e s tr a t-
16. See, for exa m ple, Geoffr ey Ha r r is , "The Deter m in a n ts of Defen s e Expen d itur e in the A SEA N
Region ," Jour n a l of Pea ce Res ea r ch, Vol. 23, No. 1 (Ma r ch 1986), pp. 41-49; Da vid D.H. Den oon ,
"Defen ce Spen d in g in A SEA N: A n Over view," in Chin Kin Wa h, ed ., Defen ce Spen d in g in
Southea s t A s ia (Sin ga por e: In s titute of Southea s t A s ia n Stud ies , 1987), pp. 48-71; a n d A n d r ew
L. Ros s , "The In ter n a tion a l A r m s Tr a d e, A r m s Im por ts , a n d Loca l Defen ce Pr od uction in
A SEA N," in Cha n d r a n Jes hur un , ed ., A r m s a n d Defen ce in Southea s t A s ia (Sin ga por e: In s titute of
Southea s t A s ia n Stud ies , 1989), pp. 1-41.
17. Sin ga por e Min is tr y of Defen ce, Defen ce of Sin ga por e 1992-1993 (Sin ga por e: Public A fa ir s
Depa r tm en t, Min is tr y of Defen ce, A ugus t 1992), p. 46.
egy, for exa m ple, the officia l policy in for m a tion pa per , The Defen ce of A us tr a lia
1987, s ta tes tha t: "The fun d a m en ta l im por ta n ce of the s ea a n d a ir ga p [a r oun d
n or ther n A us tr a lia ] to our s ecur ity gives high pr ior ity to m a r itim e (n a va l a n d
a ir ) for ces ca pa ble of pr even tin g a n a d ver s a r y fr om s ubs ta n tia l oper a tion s in
the a r ea ."'18
For s om e coun tr ies in the r egion , s uch a s the A SEA N coun tr ies , the m a r -
itim e d em a n d s of in cr ea s in g s elf-r elia n ce a r e r equir in g a r a d ica l r eor ien ta tion
of pla n n in g a n d ca pa bilities a wa y fr om in ter n a l coun ter -in s ur gen cy oper a -
tion s to the m a r itim e thea tr e. In the ca s e of other coun tr ies , s uch a s Ja pa n
a n d A us tr a lia , the m a r itim e build -ups a r e, in con tr a s t, m or e pa r t of a r ela -
tively lon g-es ta blis hed s tr a tegy.
The r equir em en ts of gr ea ter s elf-r elia n ce a r e s ever a l. To begin with, gr ea ter
s elf-r elia n ce r equir es in d epen d en t s ur veilla n ce, wa r n in g, a n d in telligen ce
ca pa bilities to m on itor r egion a l d evelopm en ts , es pecia lly in the m a r itim e
a ppr oa ches or "s ea -a ir ga ps ." The cen tr a lity of in d epen d en t n a tion a l in telli-
gen ce ca pa bilities to a policy of s elf-r elia n ce is even m or e pr on oun ced wher e
s uch a policy is pur s ued thr ough a d efen s ive or n on -offen s ive pos tur e, a s is
com m on ly the ca s e in the A s ia -Pa cific r egion (a s , for exa m ple, the pos tur es
of Ja pa n , Chin a , In d on es ia a n d A us tr a lia ). A s the Ja pa n es e Defen s e A gen cy
(JDA ) ha s s ta ted in con n ection with Ja pa n 's en ha n cem en t of its techn ica l
in telligen ce collection ca pa bilities : "It is highly im por ta n t for Ja pa n , which
follows a n exclus ively s elf-d efen s ive pos tur e, to m a in ta in wa r n in g a n d s ur -
veilla n ce in its ter r itor y a n d in s ur r oun d in g a ir s pa ce a n d wa ter s a n d to collect
a n d pr oces s in for m a tion n eces s a r y for s uch d efen s e. Such a ctivities m us t be
ca r r ied out con s ta n tly, both in pea cetim e a n d in tim e of em er gen cy."19
The m os t cos t-effective a ppr oa ch to gr ea ter s elf-r elia n ce ten d s to in volve
the em ploym en t of m a r itim e s tr ike ca pa bilities , s in ce the m os t vuln er a ble
poin t for oppos in g for ces is gen er a lly in the m a r itim e a ppr oa ches , wher e
they ca n be hit with s ur fa ce-to-s ur fa ce or a ir -to-s ur fa ce a n ti-s hip m is s iles .
THE DRA WDOWN OF U.S. PRESENCE A ND CA PA BILITIES IN THE REGION
On e of the pr in cipa l s ecur ity con cer n s in Ea s t A s ia s in ce the en d of the Cold
Wa r is un cer ta in ty a bout the futur e of the U.S. pr es en ce in the r egion .
18. The Hon . Kim C. Bea zley, The Defen ice of A us tr a lia 1987 (Ca n ber r a : A us tr a lia n Gover n m en t
Publis hin g Ser vice, 1987),
p.
31.
19. Ja pa n Defen s e A gen cy, Defen is e of Ja pa n i 1984 (Tokyo: Ja pa n Defen s e A gen cy, 1984),
p.
110.
The ba s es , fa cilities , a n d for ces which wer e m a in ta in ed in the Philippin es
ha ve n ow a ll been r em oved . Som e of thes e ha ve been r ed is tr ibuted els ewher e
in the r egion , es pecia lly to Ha wa ii a n d the U.S. wes t coa s t a n d to les s er
exten ts to Ja pa n a n d Sin ga por e, but s om e ha ve been withd r a wn fr om the
r egion en tir ely. Over a ll, U.S. ca pa bilities in the r egion a r e likely to be r ed uced
by per ha ps 20 per cen t over the n ext s ever a l yea r s a s com pa r ed to the en d of
the 1980s . The r ed uction in ca pa bilities in the Pa cific will a lm os t cer ta in ly
in clud e on e a ir cr a ft ca r r ier a n d pos s ibly two; s ever a l s qua d r on s of a ir cr a ft
(a m oun tin g to a bout ha lf a fighter win g, or 15 per cen t of the s tr en gth of the
Pa cific A ir For ces a t the en d of the Cold Wa r ); a n d s ever a l ten s of thous a n d s
of A r m y per s on n el fr om Ja pa n a n d South Kor ea . The s ca le of r ed uction s in
the A s ia -Pa cific r egion , in ter m s of "for wa r d pr es en ce" ca pa bilities , is illus -
tr a ted in Figur e 1.20
The r ed uction s in U.S. d efen s e ca pa bilities in the Pa cific a r e pr opor tion a lly
m uch les s tha n thos e which ha ve befa llen Eur opea n d eploym en ts ; they a r e
r ea lly quite m od es t when com pa r ed to the d eclin e in for m er Soviet ca pa bil-
ities in the Fa r Ea s t/Wes ter n Pa cific; a n d ther e is little r ea l pr os pect of a n y
m or e exten s ive r ed uction s in U.S. ca pa bilities in the Pa cific thr ough the r es t
of the 1990s . On the other ha n d , m a n y r egion a l s ecur ity officia ls a n d a n a lys ts
r em a in a ppr ehen s ive a bout the futur e of the U.S. pr es en ce in the r egion .
U.S. a ttem pts to a s s ua ge r egion a l con cer n s by r eiter a tin g fa cts a n d figur es
a bout the volum e a n d im por ta n ce of U.S. tr a d e with a n d in ves tm en t in the
r egion , a n d by n otin g tha t d efen s e cuts ha ve fa llen les s tha n pr opor tion a lly
on Pa cific d eploym en ts , ha ve gen er a lly been to little effect. Wa s hin gton ha s ,
quite s im ply, a ccor d ed in s ufficien t politica l a tten tion to the r egion . The belief
is wid es pr ea d in m a n y A s ia n ca pita ls tha t the Un ited Sta tes m ight n ot m a in -
ta in the will, a n d per ha ps over the lon ger ter m m ight los e the econ om ic
ca pa city, to en s ur e tha t n o other power in the r egion will becom e a s cen d a n t.
FEA RS OF "THE DRA GONS"
Ma n y of the s m a ller coun tr ies in Ea s t A s ia a r e con cer n ed tha t, with the
d r a wd own of the U.S. pr es en ce a n d ca pa bilities in the r egion , ther e will be
in cr ea s in g com petition between the m a jor r egion a l power s . A s Lee Kua n
Yew r epor ted ly s ta ted in ea r ly 1990, the "m ed ium -s ize politica l power s . ..
20. U.S. Join t Chiefs of Sta ff, Join t Milita r y Net A s s es s m en t 1992 (Wa s hin gton , D.C.: U.S. Join t
Chiefs of Sta ff, A ugus t 1992), Section 8, p. 7.
Milita r y A cquis ition s in the A s ia -Pa cific Region j 85
Figur e 1. U.S. For wa r d -Pr es en ce Tr en d s in the Pa cific.
FWE Fighter Win g Equiva len
23Divis ion s *
C CVBGs
MA RGs
*in clud es on e Ma r in e
Divis ion
1987 1992 1999
FWE Fighter Win g Equiva len t
CVBG A ir cr a ft Ca r r ier Ba ttlegr oup
A RG A m phibious Rea d in es s Gr oup
Sour ce: Join t Milita r y Net A s s es s m en t 1992 (Wa s hin gton , D.C.: U.S. Join t Chiefs of Sta ff,
A ugus t 1992), p. 8-7.
a r e boun d to com pete for power . This is s im ply hum a n n a tur e. "21 The in -
cr ea s in g power pr ojection ca pa bilities of Ja pa n a n d Chin a , a n d to a les s er
exten t In d ia , a r e gen er a tin g con s id er a ble d is quiet.
Ja pa n is a lr ea d y in volved in m a r itim e oper a tion s out to 1000 n a utica l m iles ,
which ta kes it a lm os t a s fa r s outh a s the Philippin es . In r egion a l ter m s , Ja pa n
a lr ea d y ha s a s ubs ta n tia l a n d ver y m od er n n a va l for ce, in clud in g s om e 100
m a r itim e com ba t a ir cr a ft, 64 m a jor s ur fa ce com ba ta n ts (6 d es tr oyer s a n d 58
21. Cited in Jon a tha n Sikes , "A s ia Puts Its Wea lth in Milita r y," Wa s hin gton Tim es , Febr ua r y 12,
1990, p. 7.
fr iga tes ), a n d 14 s ubm a r in es . It is in the pr oces s of build in g s ever a l Yukika ze-
cla s s d es tr oyer s equipped with the A egis s ys tem ; it is m od er n izin g its s ub-
m a r in e fleet; it is pla n n in g to a cquir e ta n ker a ir cr a ft to exten d the r a n ge of
its a ir cover a ge; a n d it is con s id er in g the a cquis ition of "d efen s ive" a ir cr a ft
ca r r ier s . Thes e Ja pa n es e d evelopm en ts ha ve a ttr a cted the a tten tion of d efen s e
pla n n er s in Chin a , Ta iwa n a n d South Kor ea , a n d ha ve a ls o r a is ed s om e
a ppr ehen s ion s in Southea s t A s ia .
Chin a 's ca pa bilities for oper a tin g in the Wes ter n Pa cific a r e a ls o gr owin g.
The Chin es e Na vy is a cquir in g a n ew cla s s of d es tr oyer (Luhu, or Type 052),
upgr a d ed ver s ion s of the Lud a -cla s s d es tr oyer s , a n ew cla s s
(Jia n gwei)
of
m is s ile fr iga tes , a n d n ew cla s s es of r es upply a n d a m phibious a s s a ult s hips
for s us ta in in g oper a tion s fa r ther fr om s hor e a n d for lon ger per iod s . Chin a 's
power -pr ojection ca pa bilities in the South Chin a Sea ha ve been en ha n ced
with the con s tr uction of a n a ir ba s e a n d a n chor a ges on Wood y Is la n d in the
Pa r a cel Is la n d s , a n d the a cquis ition of a n a ir -to-a ir r efuelin g ca pa bility for its
n a va l a ir for ces . Chin a is a ls o a cquir in g s ever a l types of m od er n a ir cr a ft fr om
Rus s ia -in clud in g Su-27 Fla n ker s tr ike/fighter s (24 of which ha ve a lr ea d y been
d eliver ed , with pos s ibly a n other 48 to com e), s om e of which a r e expected to
be ba s ed on Ha in a n Is la n d ; MiG-31 Foxhoun d in ter ceptor fighter s (24 of which
a r e cur r en tly bein g d eliver ed , with the pos s ibility of loca l m a n ufa ctur e of up
to 200 in the futur e); a n d pos s ibly even Tu-22M Ba ckfir e s uper s on ic bom ber s .
For the lon ger ter m , Chin a 's d efen s e pla n n er s r em a in a ctively in ter es ted in
the a cquis ition of s om e a ir cr a ft ca r r ier ca pa bility.
Thes e Chin es e d evelopm en ts a r e gen er a tin g s tr on g a ppr ehen s ion s
thr oughout Ea s t A s ia . Som e coun tr ies , s uch a s Ta iwa n a n d South Kor ea , feel
a com pellin g n eed to coun ter s om e of the n ew Chin es e ca pa bilities with their
own pr ogr a m s . Other s a r e m or e d is tur bed by the la ck of tr a n s pa r en cy a t-
ten d in g the Chin es e a cquis ition s , with r es pect to the s tr a tegic pur pos es of
the n ew ca pa bilities a s well a s the ultim a te d im en s ion s of the Chin es e build -
up. In Southea s t A s ia , ther e is con cer n a bout the pos s ibility tha t Chin a m ight
be a ble to a s s er t s upr em a cy over the South Chin a Sea . In Ea s t A s ia m or e
gen er a lly, ther e is fea r of the pos s ibility tha t ther e could be s om e for m of
a r m s r a ce between Chin a a n d Ja pa n in the fir s t d eca d e of the n ext cen tur y
tha t would in evita bly em br oil the r es t of the r egion .
Som e d evelopm en ts in volvin g In d ia a r e a ls o a ffectin g Ea s t A s ia . A lthough
In d ia 's n a va l expa n s ion ha s been s ta lled by bud geta r y con s tr a in ts over the
pa s t few yea r s , In d ia r em a in s com m itted to pla n s for the a cquis ition of
a n other a ir cr a ft ca r r ier , m or e s ur fa ce com ba ta n ts , m or e Dor n ier -288 lon g-
r a n ge m a r itim e pa tr ol a ir cr a ft, a n d a m od er n con ven tion a l a n d n uclea r -pow-
er ed s ubm a r in e fleet. It is a ls o gr a d ua lly d evelopin g its n a va l a n d a ir fa cilities
on the A n d a m a n a n d Nicoba r Is la n d s , which a r e on ly 80 n a utica l m iles fr om
the n or th coa s t of Sum a tr a .
A lthough In d ia 's r ea ch in to Ea s t A s ia will r em a in ver y lim ited , the pos s i-
bility of a ctive Sin o-In d ia n com petition would ha ve s om e d is tur bin g im pli-
ca tion s for the r egion . It ha s figur ed , a lr ea d y, in Chin a 's s uppor t for the
r epr es s ive r egim e in Bur m a -for which, in r etur n , Chin a ha s r epor ted ly
r eceived a cces s to a n a va l ba s e on Ha n ggyi Is la n d in the Ba s s ein River a t the
m outh of the Ir r a wa d d y, which it is build in g for Bur m a , a s well a s to a s ite
for a m on itor in g s ta tion on Bur m a 's Coco Is la n d , jus t n or th of In d ia 's A n -
d a m a n Is la n d s . Mor e om in ous ly, ther e is the pos s ibility of a n uclea r a r m s
r a ce between In d ia a n d Chin a .22
THE INCREA SING SA LIENCE OF REGIONA L CONFLICT
On e of the m or e un for tun a te con s equen ces of the en d of the Cold Wa r is
the likely in cr ea s e in r egion a l con flict. Not on ly ha s the s a lien ce of r egion a l
con flict been en ha n ced in r ela tive ter m s by the d is a ppea r a n ce of the Ea s t-
Wes t con flict, but the en d of tha t con flict ha s "r em oved the tem per in g m ech-
a n is m " tha t often s er ved to keep r egion a l ten s ion s un d er con tr ol.23
In Ea s t A s ia , ther e r em a in s m uch fer tile gr oun d for r egion a l con flict. Ther e
a r e n um er ous is s ues of s im m er in g a n d poten tia l con flict in volvin g com petin g
s over eign ty cla im s , cha llen ges to gover n m en t legitim a cy, a n d ter r itor ia l d is -
putes . A n outlin e s um m a r y of m or e tha n a s cor e of con flict is s ues is given
in Ta ble 1.
Mos t of thes e is s ues a r e un likely to lea d to in ter -s ta te con flict. Som e could
well be r es olved thr ough n egotia tion , pos s ibly in volvin g the in s titution of
join t s ur veilla n ce a n d d evelopm en t zon es en com pa s s in g the a r ea s of d is pu-
ta tion ; other s a r e quies cen t, s uch a s the Philippin es ' cla im to Sa ba h; a n d
other s will r em a in es s en tia lly in ter n a l m a tter s , s uch a s the in s ur gen cy m ove-
m en ts in In d on es ia a n d the Philippin es . Never theles s , a ll of them r em a in
s our ces of ten s ion , s us picion , a n d m is un d er s ta n d in g. In a ll ca s es , the pa r ties
22. See Sa n d y Gor d on , "The New Nuclea r A r m s Ra ce?" Cur r en t A ffa ir s Bulletin , Vol. 69, No. 6
(Novem ber 1992), pp. 28, 29.
23. Ja m es Cla pper , Dir ector of the Defen s e In telligen ce A gen cy (DIA ), "Tes tim on y to the Sen a te
A r m ed Ser vices Com m ittee, Ja n ua r y 22, 1992," Region a l Fla s hpoin ts Poten tia l For Milita r y Con flict
(Wa s hin gton , D.C.: Un ited Sta tes In for m a tion Ser vice, Ja n ua r y 24, 1992), pp. 1-2.
Ta ble 1. Sover eign ty, Legitim a cy a n d Ter r itor ia l Con flicts in Ea s t A s ia .
* Com petin g Soviet/Rus s ia n a n d Ja pa n es e cla im s to the s outher n Kur ile Is la n d s , r efer r ed
to by the Ja pa n es e a s "the Nor ther n Ter r itor ies , n a m ely, Kun a s hir i, Etor ofu a n d Shikota n
Is la n d s , a n in tegr a l pa r t of Ja pa n es e ter r itor y, illega lly occupied by the Soviet Un ion . "a
* The un r es olved d is pute between Ja pa n a n d South Kor ea over the Lia n cour t Rocks (Ta k-
es him a or Ta k-d o) in the s outher n pa r t of the Sea of Ja pa n .b
* Divid ed s over eign ty on the Kor ea n Pen in s ula , wher e s om e 1.4 m illion gr oun d for ces of
the Republic of Kor ea a n d Nor th Kor ea r em a in d eployed a ga in s t ea ch other a cr os s the
d em ilita r ized zon e (DMZ).
* Com petin g s over eign ty cla im s of the Chin es e r egim es on m a in la n d Chin a a n d Ta iwa n .
* The un r es olved d is pute between Ja pa n a n d Chin a over the Sen ka ku (Dia oyuta i) Is la n d s
in the Ea s t Chin a Sea .
* The a r m ed com m un is t a n d Mus lim in s ur gen cies in the Philippin es .
* The con tin uin g cla im of the Philippin es to the Ma la ys ia n s ta te of Sa ba h a n d its a d ja cen t
wa ter s .
* The s tr on g s epa r a tis t m ovem en t in Sa ba h.
* Com petin g cla im s to the Pa r a cel Is la n d s (Xis ha Qua n d a o or Qua n Doa Hoa n g Sa ) in the
South Chin a Sea , con tes ted by Chin a a n d Vietn a m .
* Com petin g cla im s to the Spr a tly Is la n d s in the South Chin a Sea , con tes ted by Chin a ,
Vietn a m , Br un ei, Ma la ys ia , Ta iwa n a n d the Philippin es .
* Bor d er d is putes between Chin a a n d Vietn a m .
* Boun d a r y d is pute between In d on es ia a n d Vietn a m on their d em a r ca tion lin e on the con -
tin en ta l s helf in the South Chin a Sea , n ea r Na tun a Is la n d .c
* Bor d er d is putes between Vietn a m a n d Ca m bod ia .
* Boun d a r y d is pute between Vietn a m a n d Ma la ys ia on their off-s hor e d em a r ca tion lin e.
* The Bouga in ville s eces s ion is t m ovem en t in Pa pua New Guin ea .
* The Or ga n is a s i Pa pua Mer d eka (OPM) r es is ta n ce m ovem en t in Wes t Ir ia n /Ir ia n Ja ya .
* The con tin uin g r es is ta n ce to In d on es ia n r ule in Ea s t Tim or .
* The A ceh in d epen d en ce m ovem en t in n or ther n Sum a tr a . d
* The d is pute between Ma la ys ia a n d Sin ga por e over own er s hip of the is la n d of Pula u Ba tu
Putih (Ped r a Br a n ca ), s om e 55 km ea s t of Sin ga por e in the Str a its of Johor e.e
* The com petin g cla im s of Ma la ys ia a n d In d on es ia to the is la n d s of Sipa d a n , Seba tik, a n d
Ligita n , in the Celebes Sea , s om e 35 km fr om Sem por n a in Sa ba h.!
* Bor d er d is pute between Ma la ys ia a n d Tha ila n d .9
* Res id ua l con flict in Ca m bod ia .
* Con tin ued fightin g between gover n m en t a n d r es is ta n ce for ces in La os .h
* Res id ua l com m un is t guer illa oper a tion s a lon g the Tha i-La o bor d er in n or thea s t Tha ila n d .
* Bor d er con flicts between Tha ila n d a n d Bur m a .'
con cer n ed m a in ta in a t lea s t a "wa tchin g br ief" on the is s ues . Neighbor s a r e
a ls o con cer n ed a bout the im plica tion s of the is s ues for n eighbor hood s ta bility.
It is n otewor thy tha t a bout a thir d of the con flicts lis ted in Ta ble 1 in volve
d is putes over m a r itim e boun d a r ies a n d off-s hor e ter r itor ia l cla im s . Thes e
in clud e the d is pute between Rus s ia a n d Ja pa n over the s outher n Kur ile
Is la n d s or "Nor ther n Ter r itor ies "; between Ja pa n a n d Chin a over Sen ka ku
* The Sha n , Ka chin , Ka r en s eces s ion is t, com m un is t in s ur gen t, a n d pr o-d em ocr a cy
r ebellion s in Bur m a .k
* In s ur gen cy in Ba n gla d es h.
* Hos tilities a lon g the Bur m a -Ba n gla d es h bor d er .'
* Ter r itor ia l d is putes between Chin a a n d In d ia .
NOTES:
a Ja pa n Defen s e A gen cy, Defen s e of Ja pa n 1990 (Tokyo: Ja pa n Defen s e A gen cy, 1990),
p. 47.
b Ewa n W. A n d er s on , A n A tla s of Wor ld Politica l Fla s hpoin ts : A Sour cebook of Geopolitica l
Cr is is (New Yor k: Fa cts on File, 1993), p. 117.
c "In d on es ia In vites Vietn a m to Res olve Boun d a r y Dis pute," Ja ka r ta Pos t, July 27, 1992,
p. 1; a n d "Ja ka r ta Hopes to Settle Sea -Bor d er Is s ue With Ha n oi," Str a its Tim es , Jun e 5,
1993, p. 11.
d Hugo Gor d on , "Ten s ion s Soa r in Ea s t A s ia a s Super power s Lea ve Region ," Wa s hin gton
Tim es , A ugus t 8, 1991, p. 8.
e "Ma la ys ia n Sta te Cla im s Is la n d ," A s ia n Defen ce Jour n a l, October 1991, pp. 92-93; "Sin -
ga por e Welcom es Ma la ys ia 's Offer of Ta lks on Dis puted Is la n d s ," A s ia n Defen ce Jour n a l,
Novem ber 1991, pp. 113, 116; a n d N. Ba la kr is hn a n , "Ta n gled Ties : Is la n d Is s ue Loom s
La r ge in Ma la ys ia -Sin ga por e Row," Fa r Ea s ter n Econ om ic Review, July 2, 1992, p. 21.
f P.K. Ka tha r a s on , "In d on es ia n s Deta in Our Boa t Off Sipa d a n ," The Sta r (Kua la Lum pur ),
July 11, 1991; a n d "Row Over Is la n d s Will Not Da m pen Ties : Ma la ys ia n Min is ter ," In d o-
n es ia n Obs er ver , Febr ua r y 4, 1992, p. 2.
g "Dis pute Over 1977 Ma la ys ia -Tha ila n d Boun d a r y Pa ct," A s ia n Defen ce Jour n a l, A pr il 1993,
p. 85; a n d "Bor d er Pa n el to Dis cus s Dem a r ca tion Pr oblem s ," Ba n gkok Pos t, Jun e 17, 1993,
p. 8.
h "Fightin g Between La o Gover n m en t a n d Res is ta n ce; Tha ila n d Clos es Bor d er ," SWB (Sum -
m a r y of Wor ld Br oa d ca s ts ) (Ca ver s ha m Pa r k, En gla n d : BBC Mon itor in g), Pa r t 3: Fa r Ea s t,
Ja n ua r y 11, 1992), p. i.
iRober t Ka r n iol, "Tha i Cr a ckd own on La otia n Rebels ," Ja n e's Defen ce Weekly, July 25,
1992, p. 11.
jBer til Lin tn er , "Bur m a -Tha ila n d , Collective In s ecur ity: Ser ies of Ra id s , In cur s ion s In cr ea s e
Bor d er Ten s ion ," Fa r Ea s ter n Econ om ic Review, Decem ber 3, 1992, pp. 22-23.
k See Ber til Lin tn er , Outr a ge: Bur m a 's Str uggle for Dem ocr a cy (Lon d on a n d Ba n gkok: White
Lotus , 1990).
I Ber til Lin tn er , "Bur m a 's New Fr on t," Fa r Ea s ter n Econ om ic Review, Ja n ua r y 9, 1992,
pp. 21-22.
Is la n d in the Ea s t Chin a Sea ; between Ma la ys ia a n d Sin ga por e over the is la n d
of Pula u Ba tu Putih in the Str a its of Johor e; between Ma la ys ia a n d In d on es ia
over the is la n d s of Sipa d a n a n d Ligita n in the Celebes Sea ; a n d , per ha ps the
m os t im por ta n t poten tia l m a r itim e fla s hpoin t, the com petin g cla im s to the
Pa r a cel a n d Spr a tly Is la n d s in the South Chin a Sea , con tes ted by Chin a ,
Vietn a m , Br un ei, Ma la ys ia , Ta iwa n , a n d the Philippin es .
Thes e m a r itim e con flict is s ues a r e pr ovin g to be ver y s ign ifica n t in s ha pin g
the d efen s e m od er n iza tion pr ogr a m s un d er wa y in Ea s t A s ia . Together with
other fa ctor s d is cus s ed in the pr evious s ection s , they d r ive the r equir em en t
for gr ea ter m a r itim e s ur veilla n ce ca pa bilities , in clud in g gr oun d -ba s ed s ign a ls
in telligen ce (SIGINT) s ys tem s a n d s ophis tica ted m a r itim e r econ n a is s a n ce a ir -
cr a ft.24 They a r e a ls o gen er a tin g r equir em en ts for pa r ticula r com ba t ca pa bil-
ities , s uch a s lon ger -en d ur a n ce s ur fa ce com ba ta n ts , pla tfor m s a ble to la un ch
a n ti-s hip m is s iles , a n d lon ger -r a n ge a ir cr a ft. (Ma la ys ia , for exa m ple, ha s
in clud ed in the per for m a n ce s pecifica tion s r equir ed of its n ew fighter s the
a bility to con d uct oper a tion s with cer ta in pa yloa d s a n d for cer ta in tim es on
s ta tion over the a r ea of the South Chin a Sea a n d the pa r ticula r Spr a tly Is la n d s
tha t it cla im s .)
THE REQUIREMENTS FOR EEZ SURVEILLA NCE A ND PROTECTION
The pr om ulga tion of 200-m ile Exclus ive Econ om ic Zon es (EEZs ) un d er the
Thir d Un ited Na tion s Con fer en ce on the La w of the Sea (UNCLOS III) ha s
gen er a ted r equir em en ts for s ur veilla n ce a n d power -pr ojection ca pa bilities
over r es our ce-r ich a r ea s which, for m a n y s ta tes in the r egion , a r e gr ea ter
tha n their la n d a r ea s .
In Ma la ys ia , "the pr otection of the econ om ic in ter es t of the coun tr y in the
Exclus ive Econ om ic Zon e" wa s in tr od uced a s "a n ew elem en t" in the 1986-
90 five-yea r d efen s e pla n ;25 the d efen s e a lloca tion wa s s ign ifica n tly in cr ea s ed
in the 1991-95 pla n , a n d the pr in cipa l r ea s on given for the in cr ea s e wa s the
n eed to "[im pr ove] the ca pa bility a n d efficien cy of the coun tr y to con tr ol a n d
s a fegua r d the Exclus ive Econ om ic Zon e."26
THE BROA DENING OF REGIONA L SECURITY CONCERNS
Thr oughout the A s ia -Pa cific r egion , s ecur ity con cer n s a r e br oa d en in g to in -
clud e econ om ic a n d en vir on m en ta l is s ues . Econ om ic s ecur ity in volves n ot
on ly the pr otection of cr itica l s ea lin es of com m un ica tion (SLOCs ) but a ls o
in cr ea s in gly the pr otection of fis h s tocks a n d other m a r in e r es our ces . With
r ega r d to SLOC pr otection , Ja pa n -which "r elies hea vily on other coun tr ies
for the s upply of n a tur a l r es our ces , en er gy, food a n d m a n y other m a ter ia ls
24. Des m on d Ba ll, Sign a ls In telligen ce in the Pos t-Cold Wa r Er a : Developm en ts in the A s ia -Pa cific
Region (Sin ga por e: In s titute of Southea s t A s ia n Stud ies , 1993), pp. 85-96.
25. Fifth Ma la ys ia Pla n 1986-1990 (Kua la Lum pur : Na tion a l Pr in tin g Depa r tm en t, 1986), p. 545.
26. Ma la ys ia n Min is tr y of Fin a n ce, Econ om ic Repor t 1990/91 (Kua la Lum pur : 1990), p. 28.
Milita r y A cquis ition s in the A s ia -Pa cific Region
I
91
which a r e in d is pen s a ble to n a tion a l exis ten ce"27-ha s es ta blis hed a r equir e-
m en t to "s ecur e the s a fety of m a r itim e tr a ffic" thr ough s ur veilla n ce a n d es cor t
oper a tion s out to 1000 n a utica l m iles .28
Ma n y coun tr ies in the r egion a r e a ls o ver y con cer n ed a bout the in cr ea s in g
illega l a ctivity in the South Chin a Sea a n d s ur r oun d in g a cces s -wa ys , s uch a s
pir a cy, s m ugglin g, a n d un licen s ed fis hin g. This con cer n ha s gen er a ted n ew
r equir em en ts for m a r itim e s ur veilla n ce ca pa bilities a n d m a r itim e con s ta bu-
la r y oper a tion s .
En vir on m en ta l is s ues a r e n ow a ls o on the s ecur ity a gen d a in Ea s t A s ia .
Globa l pollution , d es er tifica tion , d efor es ta tion , a n d the gr een hous e effect,
with the a tten d a n t is s ue of r is in g s ea levels , a r e a ll r ea l pr oblem s in this
r egion . La r ge-s ca le oil s pills in the Ma la cca Str a its or the South Chin a Sea
could d o ir r epa r a ble d a m a ge to m a r itim e life a n d other offs hor e r es our ces .
Defor es ta tion in Ma la ys ia a n d Ka lim a n ta n is a lr ea d y por ten d in g a d ver s e
en vir on m en ta l effects in Southea s t A s ia .29 Ra pid in d us tr ia liza tion is ca us in g
a d r a m a tic in cr ea s e in ca r bon d ioxid e em is s ion s . Globa l wa r m in g thr ea ten s
to d r own the coa s ta l lowla n d s in which econ om ic a ctivity is fr equen tly con -
cen tr a ted .
In a d d ition , en vir on m en ta l is s ues will becom e a n in cr ea s in g s our ce of
in ter n a tion a l d is putes . The exter n a lities of en vir on m en ta l d egr a d a tion a r e
n ot con fin ed to the n a tion a l bor d er s of the coun tr ies in which the n oxious
a ctivity is gen er a ted ; cos ts a r e fr equen tly bor n e by thos e who r eceive n o
ben efit fr om the a ctivity. Con flicts will in cr ea s in gly occur over a ttr ibution of
r es pon s ibility for offs hor e pollution a n d d a m a ge to m a r in e r es our ces , d es er -
tifica tion , a cid r a in , r is in g s ea levels , a n d "en vir on m en ta l r efugees ."
The r equir em en ts of m on itor in g SLOCs a n d EEZs , a n d of m on itor in g oil
s pills a n d other pollution a n d the pos s ible m ovem en t of "en vir on m en ta l
r efugees ," a ll d em a n d gr ea ter m a r itim e s ur veilla n ce ca pa bilities . Other eco-
n om ic a n d en vir on m en ta l pr oblem s a r e likely to a ls o r equir e es cor t, offs hor e
pa tr ol, a n d m a r itim e con s ta bula r y ca pa bilities .
PRESTIGE
It is evid en tly the ca s e, a t lea s t in s om e in s ta n ces , tha t the a cquis ition of
s ophis tica ted wea pon s s ys tem s is d ue a s m uch to the a tten d a n t pr es tige a s
27. Ja pa n Defen s e A gen cy, Defen ce of Ja pa n 1990 (Tokyo: Ja pa n Defen s e A gen cy, 1990), p. 116.
28. Ibid .
29. See Philip Hur s t, Ra in ifor es t Politics : Ecologica l Des tr n ction in Southea s t A s ia (Kua la Lum pur :
A bd ul Ma jeed & Co., 1991), cha ps . 1-3.
to a n y geos tr a tegic con s id er a tion s . The pos s es s ion of high-techn ology wea p-
on s s ys tem s , a n d the d em on s tr a ted a bility to oper a te a n d m a in ta in them , is
r ega r d ed a s a n in d ica tor of politica l a n d econ om ic m od er n iza tion . F-16 fighter
a ir cr a ft a n d fr iga tes equipped with s ophis tica ted electr on ic s ys tem s s er ve a s
s ta tus s ym bols m uch a s n a tion a l a ir lin es a n d s pa ce pr ogr a m s d o.
TECHNOLOGY A CQUISITION A ND REVERSE ENGINEERING
In s om e ca s es , m od er n wea pon s s ys tem s a r e bein g a cquir ed beca us e of their
n ew techn ologies , which m ight be tr a n s fer r ed to the civil s ector . Ma n y m od -
er n techn ologies , s uch a s s a tellite la un ch vehicles a n d s uper -com puter s , a r e
d ua l-us e, s o tha t in ves tm en ts for d efen s e pur pos es ca n a ls o s tim ula te in d ig-
en ous com m er cia l d evelopm en ts . Sm a ll n um ber s of m od er n fighter a ir cr a ft
ca n be us ed to in tr od uce n ew com pos ite m a ter ia ls ; com ba t in for m a tion s ys -
tem s a boa r d m od er n fr iga tes pr ovid e a cces s to in tegr a ted d a ta -m a n a gem en t
s ys tem s ; a n d a d va n ced electr on ic wa r fa r e s ys tem s a r e a t the lea d in g ed ge of
com m un ica tion a n d s ign a l pr oces s in g techn ologies . Ther e is n o d oubt tha t
s om e coun tr ies , s uch a s Chin a , ha ve a cquir ed s m a ll n um ber s of cer ta in
m od er n wea pon s s ys tem s for the pur pos es of "r ever s e en gin eer in g" a n d
techn ology tr a n s fer .
CORRUPTION
The in volvem en t of the m ilita r y in econ om ic a n d com m er cia l a ctivities in
m a n y pa r ts of Ea s t A s ia ha s pr od uced in s ta n ces wher e m ilita r y gr eed a n d
im pr opr iety ha ve figur ed in m a n y m a jor a cquis ition pr ogr a m s . In Tha ila n d ,
for exa m ple, the wid es pr ea d pr a ctice of "com m is s ion s " or "kickba cks " to
s en ior m ilita r y d ecis ion -m a ker s , s om etim es a m oun tin g to a s m uch a s 35-40
per cen t of a con tr a ct, ha s r a is ed the pos s ibility of "a cor r uption -d r iven pr o-
cur em en t pr oces s " in which wea pon s a r e bought m or e beca us e of the "kick-
ba cks " tha n for a n y n a tion a l s ecur ity r equir em en t.30 A ccor d in g to on e a r m s
s a le s pecia lis t, for exa m ple, "the im por ta n t thin g to r em em ber when you s ell
to the Tha i m ilita r y is n ot wha t a wea pon ca n d o, it's how m uch it ca n
pr od uce in un d er -the-coun ter pa ym en ts ."'31
30. Ta i Min g Cheun g, "Officer 's Com m is s ion : A r m s Pr ocur em en t Dr iven By Pr ofit Ra ther Tha n
Need ," Fa r Ea s ter n Econ om ic Review, July 2, 1992, p. 13.
31. Cited in Ken n eth Stier a n d Ba o A n you, "The Bitter Tr uth Behin d Tha ila n d 's Kha ki Com -
m er ce," A s ia , In c., October 1992, p. 36.
SUPPLY-SIDE PRESSURES
With the en d of the Cold Wa r a n d the r ed uction s in d efen s e bud gets in the
Un ited Sta tes , Eur ope a n d the for m er Soviet Un ion , a r m s m a n ufa ctur er s a r e
ha vin g to ply their wa r es m or e a ctively in A s ia in or d er to com pen s a te for
the d eclin e in their hom e m a r kets .32 The r etir em en t of en or m ous a m oun ts of
con ven tion a l wea pon r y fr om the U.S., Soviet, a n d Eur opea n in ven tor ies ha s
a ls o pr od uced la r ge s tocks of s ur plus a r m s a n d equipm en t which gover n -
m en ts a n d m a n ufa ctur er s a r e willin g to s ell a t cut-r a te pr ices . It is , in the
jud gem en t of the Econ om is t, "the gr ea tes t buyer s ' m a r ket ever ."33
The Rus s ia n s a r e evid en tly willin g to s ell vir tua lly a n ythin g to a n ybod y
with the ca s h to pa y, or even the pr od ucts to ba r ter . Chin a ha s a lr ea d y s ign ed
s ever a l a r m s con tr a cts with Rus s ia , in clud in g thos e for the Su-27 a n d MiG-
31 fighter s , a n d ha s d is cus s ed a wid e va r iety of other a cquis ition s , in clud in g
Tu-22M Ba ckfir e bom ber s , 11-76 A ir bor n e Wa r n in g a n d Con tr ol Sys tem
(A WA CS) a ir cr a ft, s ur fa ce-to-a ir m is s iles , ea r ly-wa r n in g a n d a ir d efen s e r a d a r
s ys tem s , T-72 m a in ba ttle ta n ks , a r m or ed vehicles , a n d n a va l s ur fa ce com -
ba ta n ts .34 Rus s ia is s ellin g Ma la ys ia s om e 18 MiG-29 fighter s , a n d ha s a gr eed
to a ccept pa r t of the pa ym en t in pa lm oil, fa br ics a n d other good s .35 Rus s ia
ha s a ls o offer ed to s ell MiG-35 a n ti-ta n k helicopter s to Ma la ys ia ;36 Scud m is -
s iles a n d a d va n ced ver s ion s of the MiG-21 fighter a ir cr a ft to In d on es ia ; a n d
s ubm a r in es , helicopter gun s hips , a r m or ed fightin g vehicles a n d pa tr ol boa ts
to other A SEA N coun tr ies .37 In Febr ua r y 1993, In d on es ia a n n oun ced tha t it
wa s buyin g 39 s hips fr om Ger m a n y (16 Pa r chim cla s s cor vettes , 12 la n d in g
s hips , two s upply s hips , a n d n in e Con d or -2 cla s s m in es weeper s -a bout on e-
thir d of the for m er Ea s t Ger m a n Na vy),38 r epor ted ly for "the ba r ga in pr ice
of $35 m illion ."39
32. See Da vid Silver ber g, "Ma n ufa ctur er s Str uggle to Id en tify Futur e Ma r kets ," Defen is e News ,
A ugus t 27, 1990,
p.
12; a n d Ken n eth J. Stier , "U.S. Com pa n ies Str uggle to Win A s ia n A r m s
Supply Ra ce," Jour n a l
of
Com m er ce, Ja n ua r y 30, 1991, p. 4.
34. See Ta i Min g Cheun g, "Loa d ed Wea pon s ."
35. "Rus s ia is Willin g to A ccept Ma la ys ia n Item s for MiGs ," Wa ll Str eet Jour n a l, Ma r ch 3, 1993,
p. 11; a n d Micha el Mecha m , "Ma la ys ia Buys MIG-29s , F/A -18Ds ," A via tion Week & Spa ce Tech-
n ologyj,
July 5, 1993, pp. 24-25.
36. Bilveer Sin gh, "The Rus s ia n s A r e Com in g," Bus in es s Tim es (Sin ga por e), Febr ua r y 10, 1993,
p. 24.
37. Micha el Va tikiotis a n d Ta i Min g Cheun g, "Bea r in g A r m s : Rus s ia Pois ed to Sell Wea pon s in
A s ea n ," Fa r Ea s ter n Econ om ic Review, Decem ber 24-31, 1992, p. 20.
38. See "Ger m a n y to Build Subm a r in es for RI [Republic of In d on es ia ]," In d on es ia n Obs er ver ,
Febr ua r y 5, 1993, p. 1; a n d Micha el Richa r d s on , "In d on es ia to A cquir e On e-Thir d of For m er E.
Ger m a n Na vy," In ter n a tion a l Her a ld Tr ibun e, Febr ua r y 5, 1993, p. 7.
39. Va tikiotis a n d Cheun g, "Bea r in g A r m s ."
PREEMPTION OF POSSIBLE INTERNA TIONA L RESTRA INTS ON A RMS TRA NSFERS
A m or e pr oxim a te fa ctor in volved in s om e of the r ecen t a cquis ition s is a
con cer n tha t the glut of wea pon s s ys tem s a n d a s s ocia ted equipm en t m ight
n ot la s t for m uch lon ger ; a n d hen ce tha t pur cha s es s hould be con clud ed
while s tocks la s t a n d befor e in ter n a tion a l con s tr a in ts a r e im pos ed on a r m s
tr a n s fer s . A ccor d in g to U.S. officia ls , for exa m ple, Chin a is "m ovin g quickly
to a cquir e a s m uch m ilita r y ca pa bility a s pos s ible befor e the in ter n a tion a l
com m un ity clos es the d oor on the s a le of a d va n ced m ilita r y techn ology."40
A CTION-REA CTION OR A RMS RA CE DYNA MICS
The cha r a cter iza tion of the r egion a l m ilita r y a cquis ition pr ogr a m s a s "a n
A s ia n a r m s r a ce" ha s a s in gula r d eficien cy: it d oes n ot a ccor d with a n y
gen er a lly a ccepted d efin ition of the ter m "a r m s r a ce." A n y a r m s r a ce s hould
ha ve two pr in cipa l fea tur es : fir s t, a ver y r a pid r a te of a cquis ition s , with the
pa r ticipa n ts s tr etchin g their r es our ces in or d er to en s ur e tha t they r em a in a t
the hea d of the r a ce; a n d , s econ d , s om e r ecipr oca l d yn a m ics in which d e-
velopm en ts in the d efen s ive a n d offen s ive ca pa bilities of on e a d ver s a r y a r e
m a tched by a ttem pts to coun ter the a d va n ta ges thought to be ga in ed by
a n other . Thus , the con tin ued a cquis ition of n ew wea pon s ca pa bilities be-
com es a n in ter a ctive pr oces s in which the a r m s r equir em en ts of on e pa r ty
d epen d upon the kn own , a s s um ed , or a n ticipa ted ca pa bilities of the for ces
of the other pa r ty or pa r ties .
Ther e is little of this in the cur r en t a cquis ition pr ogr a m s in the r egion .
Defen s e bud gets a r e con tin uin g to in cr ea s e in r ea l ter m s in on ly ha lf a d ozen
coun tr ies in the r egion . The pr opor tion s of GDP bein g a lloca ted to the d e-
fen s e vote-a key in d ica tor of n a tion a l com m itm en t to a n y r a ce-a r e gen er -
a lly d ecr ea s in g thr oughout the r egion . Ther e a r e few un a m biguous ca s es of
pa r ticula r a cquis ition s in on e coun tr y lea d in g to either im ita tive or offs ettin g
a cquis ition s by other s . Per ha ps the clea r es t exception con cer n s the a cquis ition
of a d va n ced fighter s in Southea s t A s ia , wher e Sin ga por e's d ecis ion to pur -
cha s e F-16s d oes s eem to ha ve a cted a s s om ethin g of a s tim ula n t for the
s ubs equen t In d on es ia n a n d Tha i F-16 a cquis ition s , a s well a s fuelin g Ma la y-
s ia 's in ter es t in a s tr ike fighter .41 Even in this in s ta n ce, however , other con -
40. Da vid A . Fulghum , "Chin a Exploitin g U.S. Pa tr iot Secr ets ," A via tion Week & Spa ce Techn ology,
Ja n ua r y 18, 1993, p. 20.
41. See Ta i Min g Cheun g, "Should er to Should er : A SEA N Mem ber s Str en gthen Ties ," Fa r
Ea s ter n Econ om ic Review, Ma r ch 22, 1990, pp. 25-26.
s id er a tion s wer e a t lea s t a s s tr on g, in clud in g the cen tr a l im por ta n ce of a ir
d efen s e a n d s tr ike ca pa bilities in en ha n ced s elf-r elia n ce. Mor e gen er a lly,
im ita tive d yn a m ics ha ve en ter ed the a cquis ition pr oces s es thr ough con cer n s
com m on to m a n y d efen s e es ta blis hm en ts tha t their ca pa bilities for s ur veil-
la n ce of a ir a n d s ea a ppr oa ches a n d of a ctivities in d is puted m a r itim e a r ea s
be a s effective a s thos e of their n eighbor s , a n d of pa r ticula r coun tr ies to r ea p
the pr es tige tha t is a tten d a n t on the a cquis ition of m od er n techn ology a n d
to d em on s tr a te tha t they a r e jus t a s ca pa ble of oper a tin g a n d m a in ta in in g
high-techn ology s ys tem s a s their n eighbor s .
Them es in Region a l A cquis ition Pr ogr a m s
Ther e a r e s ign ifica n t com m on them es a ppa r en t in the a cquis ition pr ogr a m s
cur r en tly in pr ogr es s in the r egion . Ea s t A s ia is , of cour s e, a n extr em ely
d iver s e r egion , with extr a or d in a r y d is pa r ities in n a tion a l econ om ic r es our ces
a n d m ilita r y ca pa bilities , a n d s ign ifica n t d iffer en ces in s ecur ity con cer n s a n d
thr ea t per ception s , in light of which the d egr ee of con s is ten cy in the a cqui-
s ition pr ogr a m s is a ll the m or e r em a r ka ble.
NA TIONA L COMMA ND, CONTROL, A ND COMMUNICA TIONS (C3) SYSTEMS
The r equir em en ts for en ha n ced s elf-r elia n ce in d uced by the en d of the Cold
Wa r , the expir a tion of bipola r ity, the d r a wd own of the U.S. pr es en ce a n d
the in cr ea s in g s a lien ce of r egion a l con tin gen cies a r e r eflected in the cen tr a lity
of m od er n com m a n d , con tr ol, a n d com m un ica tion s (C3) s ys tem s in the cur -
r en t r egion a l a cquis ition pr ogr a m s .
Ma n y coun tr ies in the A s ia -Pa cific r egion wen t thr ough the Cold Wa r
d epen d en t upon the Un ited Sta tes for their d efen s e in the pa r a m oun t con -
tin gen cy, Com m un is t a ggr es s ion . Ther e wa s little n eed for n a tion a l d efen s e
pla n n in g s ta ffs a n d s tr uctur es , in d epen d en t oper a tion s con cepts a n d d oc-
tr in es , join t-s er vice cooper a tion , or in d epen d en t com m un ica tion s a n d other
s uppor tin g in fr a s tr uctur e. Defen s e pla n n in g wa s d on e in Wa s hin gton or
Hon olulu, a n d oper a tion a l con cepts a n d d octr in es wer e for m ula ted by the
r eleva n t U.S. com m a n d s . The s er vices r equir ed in ter -oper a bility with their
U.S. coun ter pa r ts (for exa m ple the Ja pa n es e Ma r itim e Self-Defen s e A gen cy
with the U.S. Na vy, a n d the South Kor ea n A r m y with the U.S. A r m y) r a ther
tha n with the other a r m s of their own for ces . The m os t im por ta n t com m u-
n ica tion s s ys tem s wer e thos e d es ign ed a n d m a in ta in ed by the Un ited Sta tes
for com m un ica tion between r egion a l ca pita ls a n d Wa s hin gton , a n d between
U.S. com m a n d s a n d loca l com m a n d er s in the thea tr e, r a ther tha n between
n a tion a l ca pita ls a n d their n a tion a l for ces .
Now, however , s elf-r elia n ce is d icta tin g the con s tr uction of n a tion a l com -
m a n d cen ter s a n d join t-for ce hea d qua r ter s , a n d the d es ign a n d d evelopm en t
of n a tion a lly ba s ed com m un ica tion s s ys tem s a n d fa cilities . The Ja pa n Self-
Defen s e A gen cy is build in g a n ew hea d qua r ter s in Tokyo to pr ovid e, in ter
a lia , m or e cen tr a lized con tr ol over the oper a tion s of the s er vice a n d d efen s e
in telligen ce a gen cies .42 In South Kor ea , the hea d qua r ter s of ea ch s er vice a r e
bein g r eloca ted to a com m on s ite in a s ubur ba n a r ea of Ta ejon City in the
cen ter of the coun tr y.43 Sin ga por e ha s built a n ew Min is tr y of Defen s e hea d -
qua r ter s , com plete with a "ha r d en ed un d er gr oun d cen tr a l oper a tion s con tr ol
cen tr e" a t Bukit Gom ba k, s om e 7.5 km s outh of Kr a n ji, which will be lin ked
thr ough m icr owa ve a n d fiber -optic cha n n els to a n is la n d -wid e com m a n d ,
con tr ol, com m un ica tion s a n d in telligen ce n etwor k.44
NA TIONA L TECHNICA L INTELLIGENCE SYSTEMS
Thr oughout the A s ia -Pa cific r egion , ther e ha s been a s ign ifica n t expa n s ion
in techn ica l in telligen ce (es pecia lly SIGINT) ca pa bilities a n d oper a tion s over
the pa s t d eca d e, a n d this is expected to con tin ue over the for es eea ble futur e.45
The en ha n cem en t of SIGINT ca pa bilities is d ue to the r equir em en ts of gr ea ter
s elf-r elia n ce, the in cr ea s in g n eed for m a r itim e s ur veilla n ce in for m a tion , a n d
the n eed to collect electr on ic or d er of ba ttle (EOB) in for m a tion on the com -
m un ica tion s a n d electr on ic s ys tem s of n eighbor s a n d poten tia l a d ver s a r ies
for electr on ic wa r fa r e pur pos es .
In d epen d en t in telligen ce collection ca pa bilities a r e a n es s en tia l in gr ed ien t
of m or e s elf-r elia n t d efen s e pos tur es . A s a n officia l of the Ja pa n Defen s e
A gen cy r ecen tly s ta ted , with r ega r d to the en ha n cem en t of the JDA 's SIGINT
ca pa bilities : "In the cold wa r er a the wor ld m oved in tea m s , a n d a s a m em ber
of the A m er ica n -led tea m , our jud gm en t wa s n ot s o im por ta n t. Now Ja pa n
n eed s its own a bility."46 South Kor ea r em a in s r elia n t on the U.S. in telligen ce
s ys tem for s tr a tegic ea r ly wa r n in g, but the Min is tr y of Na tion a l Defen s e ha s
42. Da vid E. Sa n ger , "Tir ed of Relyin g on U.S., Ja pa n Seeks to Expa n d Its Own In telligen ce
Effor ts ," New Yor k Tim es , Ja n ua r y 1, 1992, p. 6.
43. Min is tr y of Na tion a l Defen s e, Defen s e White Pa per 1990 (Seoul: Min is tr y of Na tion a l Defen s e,
Republic of Kor ea , 19912, p. 152.
44. "Sin ga por e Pla n s C I Networ k," Defen s e News , Ma r ch 4, 1991, p. 14.
45. See Ba ll, Sign a ls In telligen ce in the Pos t-Cold Wa r Er a , es pecia lly cha pter s 4 a n d 5.
46. Cited in Sa n ger , "Tir ed of Relyin g on U.S., Ja pa n Seeks to Expa n d Its Own In telligen ce
Effor ts ."
r ecen tly d es cr ibed the r equir em en t for n a tion a l South Kor ea n ca pa bilities a s
follows : "Red ucin g this r elia n ce on U.S. for ces will r equir e the a cquis ition of
r econ n a is s a n ce a ir cr a ft a n d in telligen ce-ga ther in g equipm en t a s a s ubs titute
for thos e belon gin g to the U.S. for ces , a s well a s im pr ovem en t of ea r ly
wa r n in g a n d ba ttlegr oun d s ur veilla n ce ca pa bilities a n d d evelopm en t of com -
m a n d , con tr ol, com m un ica tion a n d in telligen ce (C31) s ys tem s ."47
In the ca s e of A us tr a lia , the Review of A us tr a lia 's Defen ce Ca pa bilities in 1986
a r gued tha t "a high level of in telligen ce s elf-r elia n ce" wa s "cen tr a l" to gr ea ter
d efen s e s elf-r elia n ce;48 a n d the s ubs equen t policy in for m a tion pa per , The
Defen ce of A us tr a lia 1987, r eiter a ted tha t "a high level of ca pa bility in s tr a tegic
in telligen ce is fun d a m en ta l" to a m or e s elf-r elia n t d efen s e pos tur e.49 A n d a s
New Zea la n d Pr im e Min is ter Da vid La n ge s ta ted when a n n oun cin g the
d ecis ion to es ta blis h the s a tellite com m un ica tion s (SA TCOM) SIGINT s ta tion
a t Wa ihopi on Decem ber 2, 1987:
This Gover n m en t is com m itted to the pur s uit of a m or e s elf-r elia n t d efen ce
policy. This in volves gr ea ter in d epen d en ce in in telligen ce m a tter s . . . . To
fur ther en ha n ce our own in telligen ce ca pa bilities a d efen ce s a tellite com -
m un ica tion s s ta tion will be con s tr ucted in the Wa ihopi Va lley, n ea r Blen heim .
. . .The s ta tion will m a r k a n ew level of s ophis tica tion in our in d epen d en t
in telligen ce ca pa bility.50
Ma n y of the n ew SIGINT a cquis ition s a r e d es ign ed to collect m a r itim e
s ur veilla n ce in for m a tion . In Ja pa n , for exa m ple, the s ta tion s a t Miho on
Hon s hu a n d a t Shir a ho on Is higa ki-Shim a a t the s outher n en d of the Ryuku
a r chipela go (s om e 260 km ea s t of Ta iwa n ) a r e equipped with la r ge cir cula r ly
d is pos ed a n ten n a a r r a ys (CDA A s ) a n d a r e d es ign ed to pr ovid e ocea n s ur -
veilla n ce over the Ja pa n es e SLOCs fr om Ja pa n s outh to the Philippin es a n d
ea s t to Gua m .51
Ma n y coun tr ies in the r egion a r e a ls o a cquir in g a d va n ced a ir bor n e SIGINT
ca pa bilities , a ga in pr im a r ily for ocea n s ur veilla n ce pur pos es . For exa m ple,
the Ja pa n Ma r itim e Self-Defen s e For ce (JMSDF), which cur r en tly oper a tes
47. Min is tr y of Na tion a l Defen s e, Defen s e White Pa per 1990 (Seoul: Min is tr y of Na tion a l Defen s e,
Republic of Kor ea , 1991), p. 152.
48. Pa ul Dibb, Review of A us tr a lia 's Defen ce Ca pa bilities : Repor t to the Min is ter for Defen ce (Ca n ber r a :
A us tr a lia n Gover n m en t Publis hin g Ser vice, Ma r ch 1986), pp. 6, 60-64, a n d 115-117.
49. Bea zley, The Defen ce of A us tr a lia 1987, p. 34.
50. The Rt. Hon . Da vid La n ge, Pr im e Min is ter for New Zea la n d , "Defen ce Sa tellite Com m u-
n ica tion s Sta tion ," Pr es s Sta tem en t, Decem ber 2, 1987, pp. 1-2. See a ls o "NZ Spy Ba s e Pla n
Gives Self-Relia n ce," A us tr a lia n , Decem ber 7, 1987,
p.
15.
51. See Ba ll, Sign a ls In telligen ce in the Pos t-Cold Wa r Er a , pp. 43-46, 93.
two EP-2J SIGINT a ir cr a ft, is a cquir in g four m uch m or e ca pa ble EP-3 SIGINT
a ir cr a ft.52 Chin a n ow oper a tes s ever a l EY-8 SIGINT a ir cr a ft, equipped with
the BM/KZ-8608 electr on ic in telligen ce (ELINT) s ys tem d es ign ed to m on itor
s hipbor n e r a d a r em is s ion s .53 South Kor ea is pla n n in g to a cquir e s om e d ozen
SIGINT a ir cr a ft, which will be us ed for ocea n s ur veilla n ce a s well a s for m or e
gen er a l SIGINT collection .
A s d is cus s ed below, m os t coun tr ies in the r egion a r e r a pid ly d evelopin g
their electr on ic wa r fa r e (EW) ca pa bilities . It ha s been wid ely r ecogn ized tha t
d efen s e oper a tion s on the m od er n ba ttlefield ca n n ot be effectively con d ucted
without com pr ehen s ive a n d r ea l-tim e in telligen ce con cer n in g the a d ver s a r y's
electr on ic or d er of ba ttle-i.e., ca ta logues of the plethor a of com m un ica tion s
s ys tem s , r a d a r s , a n d other electr om a gn etic em itter s which m ight be expected
in the a r ea of oper a tion s . The EOB d a ta r equir ed for the d es ign of a ppr opr ia te
EW ca pa bilities is bein g collected by n ew ELINT s ys tem s of va r ious s or ts a n d
levels of s ophis tica tion .
MULTI-ROLE FIGHTER A IRCRA FT
Mos t coun tr ies in the r egion a r e cur r en tly a cquir in g s ign ifica n t n um ber s of
a d va n ced m ulti-r ole fighter a ir cr a ft-i.e., fighter s with m a r itim e a tta ck ca -
pa bilities a s well a s a ir d efen s e ca pa bilities .54 A ccor d in g to on e es tim a te, it is
likely tha t "a bout 3000 n ew fighter s a n d s tr ike a ir cr a ft will be pr ocur ed this
d eea d e by A s ia -Pa cific coun tr ies ," while a n a ppr oxim a tely equa l n um ber of
exis tin g a ir cr a ft will be upgr a d ed with n ew m is s ion a vion ics a n d a r m a -
m en ts .55 Som e 1500 of thes e n ew fighter s will be d eployed by four Nor thea s t
A s ia n a ir for ces -Chin a (a bout 550), Ta iwa n (466), Ja pa n (400), a n d South
Kor ea (160). In Southea s t A s ia , the A SEA N coun tr ies a r e likely to a cquir e
s om e 300 n ew fighter s a n d s tr ike a ir cr a ft thr ough this d eca d e. (In South A s ia ,
In d ia a n d Pa kis ta n a r e likely to a cquir e a bout 1000 s uch a ir cr a ft.)
52. Ibid ., p. 46.
53. Ibid ., p. 56.
54. For up-to-d a te ta bles lis tin g n ew fighter a ir cr a ft a cquis ition s , s ur fa ce com ba ta n ts equipped
with a n ti-s hip m is s iles , n ew s ur fa ce com ba ta n t a cquis ition s , a ir bor n e m a r itim e s ur veilla n ce
ca pa bilities , s ubm a r in e ca pa bilities , a cquis ition s of a ir bor n e ea r ly wa r n in g a n d con tr ol (A EW&C)
s ys tem s , a n d a cquis ition s of s ign a ls in telligen ce (SIGINT) a ir cr a ft in the A s ia -Pa cific r egion , s ee
Des m on d Ba ll, Tr en d s in Milita n y A cquis ition s in the A s ia -Pa cific Region : Im plica tion s for Secur ity a n d
Pr os pects for Con s tr a in ts a n d Con tr ol, Wor kin g Pa per No. 273 (Ca n ber r a : Str a tegic a n d Defen ce
Stud ies Cen tr e, A us tr a lia n Na tion a l Un iver s ity, July 1993), Ta bles 2-8, pp. 30-45.
55. Pr a s un Sen gupta , "For eca s t A s ia -Pa cific: Ten s ion Rem a in s ," A er os pa ce, Septem ber 1992,
p. 54.
I
99
In m os t ca s es , the ca pa bility for m a r itim e a tta ck oper a tion s ha s been a n
im por ta n t fa ctor in thes e n ew fighter pr ogr a m s . In Chin a , for exa m ple, the
Su-27 Fla n ker s a n d the B-7 Hon g fighter -bom ber s a r e bein g con figur ed for
a n ti-s hip oper a tion s . Sim ila r ly, in Southea s t A s ia , a ll the n ew fighter s a n d
s tr ike a ir cr a ft a r e bein g equipped with Exocet or Pen guin a n ti-s hip m is s iles .
MA RITIME RECONNA ISSA NCE A IRCRA FT
It is es tim a ted tha t cur r en t pr ogr a m s will in volve the a cquis ition of m or e
tha n 120 n ew m a r itim e r econ n a is s a n ce a ir cr a ft in the r egion ,56 a lm os t d ou-
blin g pr es en t in ven tor ies of thes e a ir cr a ft. The Ja pa n Ma r itim e Self-Defen s e
For ce, for exa m ple, is pla n n in g to a cquir e a s m a n y a s 74 P-3C lon g-r a n ge
m a r itim e pa tr ol (LRMP) a ir cr a ft, while South Kor ea is a cquir in g eight to ten
P-3Cs . Tha ila n d ha s thr ee Dor n ier -228 LRMP a ir cr a ft, with a n other two
pla n n ed , a n d ha s thr ee P-3A /Bs in the pr oces s of d eliver y. Fur ther s outh,
A us tr a lia a n d New Zea la n d m a in ta in n in eteen P-3C a n d s ix P-3K Or ion s
r es pectively. The P-3s a r e a ll equipped to ca r r y Ha r poon a n ti-s hip m is s iles .
In Southea s t A s ia , the m a r itim e ca pa bility r equir em en ts a r e r ela tively r u-
d im en ta r y. A pa r t fr om Tha ila n d , which ha s a pa r ticula r in ter es t in LRMP
a ir cr a ft with a n ti-s ubm a r in e wa r fa r e (A SW) ca pa bilities beca us e of con cer n s
a bout s ubm a r in e a ctivities in the ea s ter n In d ia n Ocea n , the A SEA N coun tr ies
a r e pr in cipa lly in ter es ted in s ur fa ce s ur veilla n ce ca pa bilities , with coa s ta l
s ur veilla n ce a n d m on itor in g of EEZs bein g a t lea s t a s im por ta n t a s m ilita r y
s ur veilla n ce. Sin ga por e, Tha ila n d , Ma la ys ia , In d on es ia , a n d Br un ei a r e a ll
m od er n izin g their a ir bor n e s ur fa ce s ur veilla n ce ca pa bilities . Sin ga por e cur -
r en tly oper a tes four E-2C Ha wkeyes , which per for m m a r itim e s ur veilla n ce
m is s ion s in a d d ition to their pr im a r y a ir bor n e ea r ly wa r n in g fun ction . (A c-
quis ition of a n a d d ition a l two to four E-2Cs is un d er con s id er a tion .) For
"d ed ica ted m a r itim e s ur veilla n ce" oper a tion s , Sin ga por e ha s or d er ed four
Fokker F-50 Ma r itim e En for cer Ma r k II a ir cr a ft (with a n a d d ition a l two on
option ), which a r e expected to a chieve in itia l oper a tion a l ca pa bility in 1994.57
Tha ila n d cur r en tly oper a tes s ever a l d iffer en t types of m a r itim e s ur veilla n ce
a ir cr a ft, in clud in g thr ee Fokker F-27 Ma r itim e En for cer Ma r k I a ir cr a ft, in
a d d ition to its LRMP ca pa bilities . Ma la ys ia cur r en tly oper a tes thr ee C-130H
m a r itim e pa tr ol a ir cr a ft, a n d is pla n n in g to a cquir e four light m a r itim e s ur -
56. Ibid .
57. "Sin ga por e Or d er s F-50 Ma r itim e En for cer Mk.II," A s ia -Pa cific Defen ce News , Jun e 7, 1991,
p. 6; a n d "The JDW In ter view," Ja n e's Defen ce Weekly, October 12, 1991, p. 684.
veilla n ce a ir cr a ft. In d on es ia oper a tes two C-130H m a r itim e pa tr ol a ir cr a ft, 18
Sea r chm a s ter s , a n d thr ee Boein g Sur veiller s . The In d on es ia n Na vy is a ls o a c-
quir in g s ix CA SA /IPTN CN-235 m ed ium -r a n ge m a r itim e pa tr ol a ir cr a ft. A n d
Br un ei ha s or d er ed thr ee CA SA /IPTN CN-235s .58
MODERN SURFA CE COMBA TA NTS
Som e 200 n ew m a jor s ur fa ce com ba ta n ts a r e pr ogr a m m ed for pr ocur em en t
in Ea s t A s ia thr ough the 1990s , with a bout a n other 50 un d er s er ious con s id -
er a tion . Thes e in clud e the 13,000-ton light a ir cr a ft ca r r ier bein g a cquir ed by
Tha ila n d (with d eliver y s ched uled for 1996); four (a n d pos s ibly eight) U.S.
A r leigh Bur ke-cla s s A egis d es tr oyer s , with a d is pla cem en t of s om e 7200 ton s ,
bein g a cquir ed by Ja pa n ; m or e tha n a hun d r ed n ew fr iga tes ; a n d m or e tha n
a hun d r ed cor vettes a n d ocea n pa tr ol ves s els in the 1000-1500 ton r a n ge. It
is a ls o likely tha t by the en d of the d eca d e both Chin a a n d Ja pa n will a ls o
ha ve m a d e d efin ite d ecis ion s to a cquir e s om e a ir cr a ft ca r r ier ca pa bilities . In
a d d ition , it is likely tha t m or e tha n 200 n ew m in or s ur fa ce com ba ta n ts (cor -
vettes , fa s t a tta ck cr a ft, m is s ile pa tr ol boa ts , etc.) will a ls o ha ve been pr ocur ed
in the r egion .
A NTI-SHIP MISSILES
Ther e a r e a lr ea d y m or e tha n 300 s ur fa ce com ba ta n ts in Ea s t A s ia n n a vies
equipped with m od er n a n ti-s hip m is s iles s uch a s Ha r poon s a n d Exocets . Be-
tween them , thes e com ba ta n ts ha ve s om e 1600 a n ti-s hip m is s ile la un cher s .
Thes e n um ber s a r e likely to be m or e tha n d oubled thr ough the cour s e of the
1990s , a s m os t of the n ew com ba ta n t a cquis ition s will be equipped with
exten s ive s ur fa ce-to-s ur fa ce m is s ile s uites .
The m os t ca pa ble of thes e m is s iles is the Ha r poon , which is cur r en tly in
s er vice with s ix n a vies in the r egion (Ja pa n , South Kor ea , In d on es ia , Sin -
ga por e, Tha ila n d a n d A us tr a lia ). A lm os t a ll of the other n a vies in the r egion
ha ve either in d igen ous ly pr od uced a n ti-s hip m is s iles (e.g., the Chin es e C-
801 a n d the Ta iwa n es e Hs iun g Fen g II) or Exocet m is s iles . Even Br un ei n ow
ha s thr ee m is s ile pa tr ol cr a ft, ea ch equipped with two Exocet MM-38 m is s iles .
When the Philippin es ta kes d eliver y of thr ee Cor m or a n -type m is s ile pa tr ol
boa ts by 1995, ever y coun tr y in the r egion will pos s es s m od er n s hipbor n e
a n ti-s hip m is s iles .
58. "A SEA N Specia l Repor t: Option s for Defen ce," Ja n e's Defen ce Weekly, Febr ua r y 22, 1992,
p. 294.
I
101
In a d d ition , m os t of the n ew fighter a ir cr a ft a n d lon g-r a n ge m a r itim e pa tr ol
a ir cr a ft bein g in tr od uced in to the r egion a r e a ls o equipped with a n ti-s hip
m is s ile ca pa bilities -Ha r poon , Exocet or Pen guin a n ti-s hip m is s iles .
SUBMA RINES
Ea s t A s ia n n a vies cur r en tly pos s es s a bout 100 s ubm a r in es , a lthough m a n y
of the Rom eo-cla s s s ubm a r in es pos s es s ed by Chin a a n d Nor th Kor ea a r e n o
lon ger oper a tion a l. (In a d d ition , In d ia cur r en tly ha s s om e 18 s ubm a r in es .)
Mor e tha n thr ee d ozen n ew s ubm a r in es a r e pla n n ed for a cquis ition d ur in g
the 1990s . Mos t of thes e n ew boa ts will be d eployed in Nor thea s t A s ia , with
Ja pa n in the pr oces s of build in g a n other d ozen , South Kor ea a cquir in g a t
lea s t n in e Type 209s , a n d Ta iwa n s eekin g to a cquir e s om e s ix to ten boa ts .
To the s outh of the r egion , A us tr a lia is in the pr oces s of build in g s ix n ew
Collin s -cla s s s ubm a r in es to r epla ce the s ix Ober on -cla s s boa ts built in the 1960s .
In Southea s t A s ia , on ly In d on es ia cur r en tly m a in ta in s a s ubm a r in e ca pa -
bility, with two Type 209 Ca kr a cla s s boa ts com m is s ion ed in 1981 a n d r efitted
in 1986-87, a n d thr ee a d d ition a l Type 209s or d er ed fr om Ger m a n y for d eliv-
er y in 1995-96.59 However , Ma la ys ia ha s d ecid ed to a cquir e two to four
s ubm a r in es la ter in the 1990s , a n d Tha ila n d a n d Sin ga por e a r e s er ious ly
con s id er in g the a cquis ition of s m a ll n um ber s of s ubm a r in es .
ELECTRONIC WA RFA RE CA PA BILITIES
Mos t coun tr ies in Ea s t A s ia a r e r a pid ly d evelopin g their electr on ic wa r fa r e
ca pa bilities , in clud in g their m a r itim e EW ca pa bilities . This r eflects the wid e-
s pr ea d effor ts in the r egion to a chieve n a tion a l s elf-r elia n ce, the gen er a l
r ecogn ition of the va lue of EW a s a "for ce m ultiplier ," the d efen s e m od er n -
iza tion pr ogr a m s (which n eces s a r ily in clud e s ign ifica n t electr on ic com po-
n en ts ), a n d the a bility of m a n y coun tr ies in the r egion to pr od uce a d va n ced
electr on ic s ys tem s (or the d es ir e to pr om ote the d evelopm en t of in d igen ous
electr on ic s ector s thr ough loca l d es ign a n d pr od uction ).
In Ea s t A s ia , Ja pa n is clea r ly the lea d er with r es pect to the a cquis ition of
a d va n ced EW equipm en t, with a ll the m a jor com ba ta n t pla tfor m s of the
JMSDF equipped with s uch s ys tem s -e.g., the HLQ-101 a n d HLR-108 ESM
s ys tem s in s ta lled on A SW a ir cr a ft, the NOLQ-1 EW s uite on the Ha ts uyuki
a n d Shir a n e helicopter d es tr oyer s a n d the Ha ta ka ze a n d Sa wa ka ze guid ed m is -
59. Cha r les Bicker s , "In d on es ia , Con tin ues Its Na va l Build -Up," Ja n e's Defen ce Weekly, Ja n ua r y
30, 1993, p. 4; a n d "Ger m a n y To Build Subm a r in es for RI."
s ile d es tr oyer s , a n d the NOLR-6 s ys tem on the A m a ts uka ze guid ed m is s ile
d es tr oyer a n d s om e Ya m a gum o-cla s s ves s els .60
A lthough the s ca le of r ecen t a cquis ition s of a d va n ced wea pon s s ys tem s
els ewher e in Ea s t A s ia is gen er a lly s om ewha t les s in qua n tita tive ter m s tha n
thos e of Ja pa n , they a r e n ever theles s im pr es s ive a n d a r e in va r ia bly a ls o bein g
equipped with a d va n ced EW s ys tem s . For exa m ple, In d on es ia 's s ix Va n Speijk
fr iga tes a r e equipped with "s ta te-of-the-a r t" EW s ys tem s ; Sin ga por e is a c-
quir in g the a d va n ced Shipboa r d Electr on ic Wa r fa r e Sys tem (SEWS) for its s ix
Victor y-cla s s cor vettes ; A us tr a lia is in s ta llin g the Ra ytheon A N/SLQ-32 (V)2
a n d Thor n /EMI ESM s ys tem s on its n ew FFG-7 a n d A NZA C fr iga tes ; a n d
Ma la ys ia in ten d s to equip the n ew fr iga tes it is a cquir in g fr om Br ita in with
the GEC-Ma r con i Men tor EW s uite, which pr ovid es a com pr ehen s ive thr ea t
wa r n in g, s ur veilla n ce, ta r get in d ica tion , a n d d ir ection -fin d in g (DF) ca pa bil-
ity.61
RA PID DEPLOYMENT FORCES
Mos t coun tr ies in the r egion ha ve either r ecen tly es ta blis hed or a r e in the
pr oces s of d evelopin g s om e for m of r a pid d eploym en t for ce, typica lly of
br iga d e or light d ivis ion a l s ize, d es ign ed to be d eployed to pos s ible a r ea s of
oper a tion (A Os ) a t s hor t n otice a n d to fight a s m or e or les s s elf-con ta in ed
un its . For exa m ple, A us tr a lia ha s a n Oper a tion a l Deploym en t For ce (ODF)
con s is tin g of two in fa n tr y ba tta lion s a n d s uppor tin g a r m or a n d a ir bor n e
un its . In 1984, In d on es ia for m ed a Ra pid Rea ction Str ike For ce (Pa ks uka n
Pem ukul Rea ks i Cepa t, or PPRC), which con s is ts of a n in fa n tr y a ir bor n e
br iga d e (with on e ba tta lion r ea d y to r ea ct to a n y loca tion within the a r chi-
pela go within twelve hour s ), a Ma r in e ba tta lion la n d in g tea m , two fighter /
gr oun d a tta ck s qua d r on s , twelve C-130 Her cules for a ir lift, a n d a bout a d ozen
n a va l s uppor t ves s els .62 In the la te 1980s , the Chin es e People's Liber a tion
A r m y (PLA ) for m ed a bout ten ba tta lion -s ized r a pid r ea ction un its d es ign ed
"for r a pid d eploym en t a n ywher e a lon g Chin a 's bor d er s or in the South Chin a
Sea . "63 In 1988, the PLA Na vy a ls o cr ea ted a s pecia l r a pid r ea ction for ce,
60. Ba ll, Sign a ls In telligen ce in the Pos t-Cold Wa r Er a , pp. 47-48, 83.
61. Ibid ., pp. 81-84, 96.
62. Bob Lowr y, In d on es ia n Defen ce Policy a n d the In d on es ia n A r m ed For ces , Ca n ber r a Pa per s on
Str a tegy a n d Defen ce No. 99 (Ca n ber r a : Str a tegic a n d Defen ce Stud ies Cen tr e, A us tr a lia n Na -
tion a l Un iver s ity, 1993), pp. 83, 93-94.
63. Ga r y Klin twor th, Chin a 's Mod er n is a tion : The Str a tegic Im plica tion s for the A s ia -Pa cific Region
(Ca n ber r a : A us tr a lia n Gover n m en t Publis hin g Ser vice, 1989), p. 43.
s uppor ted by a n a r r a y of n ew a m phibious a s s a ult s hips a n d la n d in g cr a ft.64
In 1989, Ma la ys ia bega n d evelopm en t of a Ra pid Deploym en t For ce which
is cur r en tly ba s ed on a r ein for ced ba tta lion gr oup but which will gr ow to
d ivis ion a l s tr en gth (a bout 12,000 tr oops ) by the tur n of the cen tur y; ba s ed a t
Mer s in g on the s outhea s t coa s t of the pen in s ula , it is to be equipped with
n ew tr a n s por t a ir cr a ft, m ed ium -lift helicopter s , a m phibious a s s a ult s hips ,
light ta n ks , a m phibious in fa n tr y com ba t vehicles , a n d light field gun s .65
Sin ga por e m a in ta in s "a r ein for ced in fa n tr y ba tta lion on 24-hour s ta n d by to
r es pon d to a n y exigen cies ,"66 a n d ha s a n n oun ced pla n s to d evelop a n a ir -
m obile r a pid d eploym en t d ivis ion (ten ta tively d es ign a ted No. 12 Divis ion ),
which is to be equipped with n ew utility helicopter s a n d in tegr a l m echa n ized
a r m or a n d a r tiller y s ys tem s .67
Net A s s es s m en t of Milita r y A cquis ition s for Region a l Secur ity
The r ecen t tr en d s in m ilita r y a cquis ition s in the r egion evin ce a m ixed a n d
ver y com plex pictur e. Som e of the m os t s ign ifica n t fa ctor s a r e en tir ely n on -
m ilita r y, s uch a s the a va ila bility of econ om ic r es our ces a n d the per ception s
of pr es tige a tten d a n t upon high-techn ology a er os pa ce pr ogr a m s . Ther e a r e
a ls o m a n y d iffer en t types of wea pon s s ys tem s in volved , s om e of which a r e
r ela tively d efen s ive, while other s a r e m or e offen s ive (e.g., m a r itim e s tr ike
a n d other power pr ojection s ys tem s ) a n d thus m or e likely to s tim ula te
coun ter -a cquis ition s a n d cr is is in s ta bilities .
Over a ll, the gen er a lly high r a tes of gr owth in d efen s e expen d itur es
thr ough the 1980s ha ve les s en ed in the ea r ly 1990s , with s om e im por ta n t
exception s in Nor thea s t A s ia (Chin a , Ta iwa n a n d South Kor ea ). On the other
ha n d , even wher e r ea l gr owth in d efen s e s pen d in g ha s s topped , m os t r e-
gion a l d efen s e bud gets n ow con ta in r ela tively high a lloca tion s for ca pita l
pr ocur em en t, which a r e likely to be m a in ta in ed over the for es eea ble futur e.
A cr itica l ques tion is whether thes e a lloca tion s will be a ble to s uppor t the
con tin ued a cquis ition s of n ew ca pa bilities a s well a s the r epla cem en t of
64. Jim Bus s er t, "The Chin es e Na vy-A Pa cific Wild Ca r d ," Defen s e Electr on ics , July 1992, p. 50.
65. A n thon y Spellm a n , "Ra pid Deploym en t For ces on Hor izon for Ma la ys ia , Sin ga por e," A r m ed
For ces Jour n a l In ter n a tion a l, A pr il 1991, p. 36; Da vid Sa w, "Ma la ys ia Looks Beyon d Its Dea l of
the Deca d e," A r m ed For ces Jour n a l In ter n a tion a l, Jun e 1992, pp. 32-33; a n d Peter Howa r d a n d Ia n
Kem p, "The Ja n e's In ter view," Ja n e's Defen ce Weekly, Septem ber 26, 1992, p. 32.
66. Sin ga por e Min is tr y of Defer tce, Defen ce of Sin ga por e 1992-1993, p. 23.
67. Spellm a n , "Ra pid Deploym en t For ces on Hor izon for Ma la ys ia , Sin ga por e."
s ys tem s a cquir ed in the 1980s , a n d hen ce whether or n ot a n ew r oun d of
r ea l in cr ea s es in pr ocur em en t bud gets m ight be expected in the la ter 1990s .
A t the lea s t, the gen er a l com m itm en t to gr ea ter s elf-r elia n ce will r em a in
un a ba ted . This ca n be r ega r d ed a s a hea lthy tr en d . The n a tion a l s elf-con fi-
d en ce gen er a ted by the a chievem en t of gr ea ter s elf-r elia n ce a n d the a cqui-
s ition a n d m a in ten a n ce of m od er n , high-techn ology wea pon s s ys tem s ca n
s er ve to pr om ote r egion a l con fid en ce. In In d on es ia n ter m s , "ea ch coun tr y's
Keta ha n a n Na s ion a l (Na tion a l Res ilien ce) is the pr econ d ition of a chievin g Ke-
ta ha n a n Region a l (Region a l Res ilien ce). "68
On the other ha n d , it is cr itica l tha t thes e a cquis ition pr ogr a m s d o n ot lea d
to a r egion a l a r m s r a ce. Sin ce the r equir em en ts for d efen s e s elf-r elia n ce
ca n n ot be d efin ed without s om e con s id er a tion of the ca pa bilities pos s es s ed
by n eighbor s a n d poten tia l a d ver s a r ies fur ther a field , ther e m us t com e a
poin t when fur ther a cquis ition s begin to gen er a te coun ter -pr ogr a m s , to the
d etr im en t of both s elf-r elia n ce a n d r egion a l s ecur ity.
Sever a l a s pects of the cur r en t a cquis ition pr ogr a m s a r e d is tur bin g. To begin
with, thes e pr ogr a m s a r e pr oceed in g in a n a tm os pher e of un cer ta in ty a n d
s om e la ck of tr us t. Un cer ta in ty a n d s us picion a r e fueled by a r ela tive la ck of
tr a n s pa r en cy in the r egion with r es pect to the lon g-r a n ge objectives a n d
m otiva tion s behin d the cur r en t a cquis ition pr ogr a m s , a s well a s the pa r ticula r
for ce elem en ts of thes e pr ogr a m s . Ten s ion s a r e a lr ea d y bein g in d uced in the
r egion by a ttem pts by s om e coun tr ies to d is cer n the pur pos es a n d in ten tion s
of their n eighbor s . For exa m ple, a n es pion a ge con tr over s y tha t d a m a ged
r ela tion s between Ma la ys ia a n d Sin ga por e in la te 1989 wa s r epor ted ly d ue,
a t lea s t in pa r t, to Sin ga por e's effor ts to collect in for m a tion on Ma la ys ia 's
"r ecen t $1.6 billion a r m s d ea l with Br ita in .
"69
In a d d ition to the a bs en ce of tr a n s pa r en cy, m is un d er s ta n d in g is a ls o ca us ed
by the la ck of a n y com m on thr ea t per ception s thr oughout the r egion . Som e
coun tr ies a r e m or e con cer n ed tha n other s a bout In d ia 's power -pr ojection
ca pa bilities , s om e a r e m or e con cer n ed a bout the in cr ea s in g Chin es e ca pa bil-
ities , a n d s om e a r e m or e wor r ied a bout the pla n s a n d in ten tion s of their
68. See A . Ha s n a n Ha bib, "Techn ology for Na tion a l Res ilien ce: The In d on es ia n Per s pective,"
in Des m on d Ba ll a n d Helen Wils on , ed s ., New Techn ology: Im plica tion s for Region a l a n d A us tr a lia n
Secur ity, Ca n ber r a Pa per s on Str a tegy a n d Defen ce No. 76 (Ca n ber r a : Str a tegic a n d Defen ce
Stud ies Cen tr e, A us tr a lia n Na tion a l Un iver s ity, 1991), pp. 60-65, 76.
69. See Suha in i A zua m , "Neighbour ly In ter es t: Spy A ccus a tion Revea ls Region a l Sus picion s ,"
Fa r Ea s ter n Econ om ic Review, Decem ber 21, 1989, pp. 20-26; a n d Holm a n Jen kin s , "Dwin d lin g
Suppor ts Thr ows Sta tus Quo In to Sea of Cha n ge," In s ight, Ja n ua r y 14, 1991, pp. 26-28.
n ea r er n eighbor s . Jus tifica tion s for pa r ticula r a cquis ition s , n o m a tter how
well a r ticula ted , m ight s im ply n ot r in g tr ue in thes e cir cum s ta n ces , lea d in g
to m is un d er s ta n d in gs a n d un a n ticipa ted a n d un for tun a te r ea ction s .
The "offen s ive" cha r a cter of s om e of the n ew wea pon s s ys tem s bein g
a cquir ed is a ls o ca us e for con cer n . Ma n y of the n ew a cquis ition s (s uch a s
the m a r itim e a tta ck a ir cr a ft, m od er n s ur fa ce com ba ta n ts , a n d s ubm a r in es , a ll
equipped with a n ti-s hip m is s iles ) in volve s tr ike ca pa bilities with offen s ive
con n ota tion s . Un for tun a tely, for m a n y coun tr ies they pr ovid e the m os t cos t-
effective ba s is for s elf-r elia n ce; in s om e ca s es , s uch a s tha t of A us tr a lia , a
via ble pos tur e of s elf-r elia n ce would n ot be pos s ible without s om e m in im a l
s tr ike ca pa bilities . Yet thes e ca pa bilities a r e the m os t likely to gen er a te
coun ter -a cquis ition s .
This a pplies pa r ticula r ly to n ew fighter a ir cr a ft a cquis ition s . A ir power is
a t the for efr on t of the for ce m od er n iza tion pr ogr a m s in the r egion , but it is
a ls o a pr in cipa l m ea n s of pr ojectin g power in the r egion . A ir power is
in her en tly (a lthough n ot on ly) offen s ive. The qua n tita tive a n d qua lita tive
en ha n cem en ts of a ir power a r e per ha ps the m os t likely to tr igger un a n tici-
pa ted a n d un d es ir ed a r m s a cquis ition com petition s .
Other a cquis ition s , s uch a s s ubm a r in es a n d lon g-r a n ge a n ti-s hip m is s iles ,
a r e m or e d is tur bin g in ter m s of their im plica tion s for cr is is s ta bility. The
un d er wa ter en vir on m en t is pa r ticula r ly opa que, a n d un d er wa ter oper a tion s
a r e pa r ticula r ly s ubject to un cer ta in ty, con fus ion , los s of con tr ol, a n d a cci-
d en ts . Sim ila r ly, over -the-hor izon ta r getin g of lon g-r a n ge a n ti-s hip m is s iles
r a is es the pr os pect of er r or s a n d m is ca lcula tion . In a d ver ten t es ca la tion be-
com es in cr ea s in gly likely.
Pr os pects for Con s tr a in ts a n d Con tr ols
It is clea r tha t, a t lea s t in the s hor t ter m , ther e is little pos s ibility tha t coun tr ies
in the A s ia -Pa cific r egion will en ga ge in a r m s con tr ol or m ultila ter a l s ecur ity
d ia logues which will con s tr a in their for ce d evelopm en t pla n s a n d pr ogr a m s .
Mos t coun tr ies in the r egion a r e com m itted to r obus t a cquis ition pr ogr a m s
a n d ca n pr ovid e both the fun d s a n d the s tr a tegic jus tifica tion s for them . In
a n y ca s e, the r egion cur r en tly la cks a n y m a chin er y by which the pr oces s es
of d ia logue a n d cooper a tion could ha ve a n y con s tr a in in g im pa ct. Som e con -
fid en ce a n d s ecur ity build in g m ea s ur es (CSBMs ) a r e cur r en tly bein g in s ti-
tuted , however , which offer the pr os pect of con s tr a in ts in the lon ger ter m .
In ter n a tion a l Secur ity 18:3
1
106
In this con text, the es s en tia l "build in g blocks " a r e thos e which a d d r es s the
m or e likely poin ts of ten s ion a n d m is un d er s ta n d in g which a tten d the a cqui-
s ition pr ogr a m s , a n d hen ce a llevia te the pos s ibilities for r ecipr oca l a cquis i-
tion s , m is ca lcula tion s a n d in a d ver ten t es ca la tion . The ba s ic "build in g blocks "
a r e tr a n s pa r en cy a n d d ia logue.
TRA NSPA RENCY
A cr itica l r equir em en t is to en cour a ge m uch gr ea ter tr a n s pa r en cy with r es pect
to m a jor a r m s a cquis ition pr ogr a m s a n d s tr a tegic objectives . Mecha n is m s a r e
n eed ed for d is cus s ion a n d s ha r in g of in for m a tion on s ecur ity per ception s
a n d thr ea t a s s es s m en ts (in clud in g in telligen ce a s s es s m en ts of gen er a l r e-
gion a l s ecur ity d evelopm en ts a s well a s pa r ticula r is s ues s uch a s r efugee
m ovem en ts , pir a cy, a n d ter r or is m ); m a jor wea pon s a cquis ition pr ogr a m s ;
m ilita r y exer cis es a n d for wa r d d eploym en ts ; a n d d efen s e d octr in es a n d op-
er a tion a l con cepts .
Va r ious officia l A us tr a lia n gover n m en t s ta tem en ts over the pa s t ha lf-
d eca d e pr ovid e s om ethin g of a m od el for the s or t of public d is clos ur e which
is both pos s ible a n d n eces s a r y. The Review of A us tr a lia 's Defen ce Ca pa bilities ,
is s ued in Ma r ch 1986, pr ovid es a d eta iled a n d com pr ehen s ive expla n a tion of
the ba s is a n d r a tion a le of the s tr uctur e of the A us tr a lia n Defen ce For ce
(A DF).70 The policy in for m a tion pa per on The Defen ce of A us tr a lia 1987, is s ued
by the Min is ter for Defen ce in Ma r ch 1987, pr ovid es a com pr ehen s ive over a ll
expla n a tion of the ba s is of A us tr a lia n d efen s e policy a n d pla n n in g, in clud in g
the con cepts of s elf-r elia n ce a n d "d efen s e in d epth."'71 In Decem ber 1989, the
Min is ter for For eign A ffa ir s a n d Tr a d e, Ga r eth Eva n s , is s ued a m a jor s ta te-
m en t on A us tr a lia 's Region a l Secur ity, which d es cr ibes A us tr a lia 's r egion a l
s ecur ity in ter es ts a n d policies , in clud in g n ot jus t the m ilita r y but a ls o the
d iplom a tic, econ om ic, a n d d evelopm en t a s s is ta n ce d im en s ion s , a n d expla in s
the A us tr a lia n policies of "com pr ehen s ive en ga gem en t" for Southea s t A s ia
a n d "con s tr uctive com m itm en t" for the South Pa cific.72 In A ugus t 1990 the
Roya l A us tr a lia n A ir For ce (RA A F) is s ued The A ir Power Ma n ua l, which
70. Dibb, Review of A us tr a lia 's Defen ce Ca pa bilities , p. v.
71. Bea zley, The Defen ce of A us tr a lia 1987, pp. vii-x.
72. Ga r eth Eva n s , Min is ter for For eign A ffa ir s a n d Tr a d e, A us tr a lia 's Region a l Secur ity (Ca n ber r a :
Ma n a gem en t In for m a tion Pr oces s in g, Depa r tm en t of For eign A ffa ir s a n d Tr a d e, Decem ber 1989).
d es cr ibes the ba s ic d octr in e a n d oper a tion a l con cepts for the em ploym en t of
a ir power in the d efen s e of A us tr a lia .73
The publica tion of s im ila r s ta tem en ts by r egion a l gover n m en ts s hould be
en cour a ged -with, however , a n a wa r en es s of the lim ita tion s tha t s om e r e-
gion a l s ocio-politica l cultur es im pos e on open gover n m en t. A us tr a lia could
offer to pr ovid e a s s is ta n ce to r egion a l pla n n er s with r es pect to pla n n in g
m ethod ologies a n d techn iques , s uch a s pr ogr a m bud getin g a n d five-yea r
(a n d m or e for wa r d ) d efen s e pla n n in g. The d evelopm en t a n d publica tion of
lon g-ter m d efen s e pla n s a n d their con ceptua l ba s es would a lla y s om e of the
un cer ta in ty in the r egion .
Tr a n s pa r en cy would a ls o be en ha n ced by the es ta blis hm en t of a public
r egis tr y con ta in in g in for m a tion on a r m s a cquis ition s . The id ea of a n in ter -
n a tion a l a r m s r egis ter wa s wid ely a n d s er ious ly d is cus s ed in the la te 1980s ,
a n d on Decem ber 9, 1991, the Un ited Na tion s Gen er a l A s s em bly pa s s ed
Res olution 46/36L on "Tr a n s pa r en cy in A r m a m en ts ," which ca lls upon the
UN Secr eta r y-Gen er a l to es ta blis h a r egis ter of con ven tion a l a r m s , in clud in g
both hold in gs a n d tr a n s fer s , cover in g s uch s ys tem s a s m a in ba ttle ta n ks ,
a r m or ed per s on n el ca r r ier s , com ba t a ir cr a ft, a tta ck helicopter s , la r ge-ca libr e
a r tiller y s ys tem s , wa r s hips , a n d m is s iles or m is s ile s ys tem s . However , the
in for m a tion r equir ed is to be of a ver y gen er a l n a tur e a n d will n ot in clud e
the pa r ticula r m od els or types of equipm en t, s m a ll a r m s (which s till d om in a te
the ba ttlefield in m os t r egion a l con flicts ), the fin a n cia l ter m s of s a les (which
would in d ica te whether a s upplier is "d um pin g" the equipm en t), or im por -
ta n t d eta ils of exta n t hold in gs . It is , n ever theles s , a us eful fir s t s tep in a n
evolution a r y pr oces s of pr ovid in g tr a n s pa r en cy a n d pr om otin g r es tr a in t.74
In A pr il 1992, the Ma la ys ia n Min is ter for Defen ce, Da tuk Ser i Moha m m ed
Na jib bin Tun A bd ul Ra za k, pr opos ed tha t a "r egion a l r egis ter " be es ta blis hed
both to s uppor t the UN r egim e a n d s o tha t "s us picion could be m in im is ed
a n d m a n a ged " in the A s ia -Pa cific r egion its elf.75 Such a r egion a l r egis tr y,
while bein g wholly com pa tible with the ca tegor ies a n d collection pr oces s es
73. Roya l A us tr a lia n A ir For ce, The A ir Power Ma n ua l (Ca n ber r a : A ir Power Stud ies Cen tr e,
Roya l A us tr a lia n A ir For ce, A ugus t 1990).
74. See Da vid A n d er s on , "Tr a n s pa r en cy in A r m s Tr a n s fer s : The A r m s Regis tr y," pa per pr epa r ed
for the 89th In ter pa r lia m en ta r y Un ion (IPU) Con fer en ce, New Delhi, A pr il 12-17, 1993.
75. The Hon . Da tuk Ser i Moha m m ed Na jib bin Tun A bd ul Ra za k, "Towa r d s Cooper a tive Se-
cur ity a n d Region a l Sta bility: The Ma la ys ia n View," in Da vid Hor n er , ed ., The A r m y a n d the
Futur e: La n d For ces in A us tr a lia a n d South-Ea s t A s ia (Ca n ber r a : Dir ector a te of Depa r tm en ta l Pub-
lica tion s , Depa r tm en t of Defen ce, 1993), p. 137.
In ter n a tion a l Secur ity 18:3
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108
of the UN r egim e, could be con figur ed to a d d r es s thos e d eficien cies in the
br oa d er r egim e a n d pr ovid e gr ea ter illum in a tion of other pa r ticula r m a tter s
of con cer n to r egion a l policy-m a ker s a n d a n a lys ts .
A s with a ll the other im por ta n t a ven ues for pr om otin g CSBMs in the
r egion , however , the is s ues with r es pect to tr a n s pa r en cy a r e n ot s tr a ightfor -
wa r d . Tr a n s pa r en cy is n ot a n eutr a l s tr a tegic va lue. The effect of tr a n s pa r en cy
is d iffer en t for coun tr ies with m or e "d efen s ive" a s oppos ed to "offen s ive"
d efen s e pos tur es , a s well a s for thos e coun tr ies m or e d epen d en t upon a r m s
im por ts r a ther tha n in d igen ous pr od uction . It ca n expos e vuln er a bilities (in
both in telligen ce collection a n d for ce s tr uctur e ca pa bilities ). Un cer ta in ty
a bout the ca pa bilities of poten tia l a d ver s a r ies s om etim es s er ves to en ha n ce
d eter r en ce (or to in d uce ca ution ).
In a d d ition , pa r ticula r pr oblem s a n d s en s itivities obta in in the A s ia -Pa cific
r egion . The wid es pr ea d a n d exten s ive a cquis ition s over the pa s t d eca d e
n otwiths ta n d in g, m a n y coun tr ies s till m a in ta in on ly ver y lim ited s tockpiles
of s om e cr itica l wea pon s s ys tem s a n d or d n a n ce. For exa m ple, the hold in gs
of pr ecis ion -guid ed m un ition s (PGMs ) by the Roya l A us tr a lia n A ir For ce a r e
s o s m a ll tha t they "would n ot la s t on e d a y of in ten s ive oper a tion s a t the
higher level."76 Tha ila n d ha s on ly s ixteen Ha r poon a n ti-s hip m is s iles . A full
public lis tin g of s tocks of thes e s or ts of s ys tem s could un d er m in e the cr ed i-
bility of m a n y d efen s e pos tur es in the r egion , thus d im in is hin g r egion a l
r es ilien ce.
For m a n y A s ia n d efen s e es ta blis hm en ts , a high level of public tr a n s pa r en cy
is s im ply un a ccepta ble a t this s ta ge. Ma n y gover n m en ts a r e un willin g to
d is clos e their r ea l levels of d efen s e expen d itur e, let a lon e their or d er s of
ba ttle or the pa r ticula r s of their oper a tion a l d eploym en ts a n d s tockpiles .
Never theles s , they m a y be willin g to d is cus s thes e m a tter s a t "a pr ofes s ion a l
level," behin d clos ed d oor s , with s en ior officia ls fr om other d efen s e es ta b-
lis hm en ts . It m a y well be tha t the m os t pr om is in g pa th to gr ea ter tr a n s pa r -
en cy in the r egion will be d ua l-tr a ck, with s om e in for m a tion , s uch a s gen er a l
d efen s e d octr in es a n d m a jor wea pon s a cquis ition s , bein g d is clos ed publicly,
but other in for m a tion , s uch a s oper a tion a l con cepts a n d d eta ils of d eploy-
m en ts a n d a cquis ition s , bein g d is clos ed on ly to pr ofes s ion a l coun ter pa r ts .
76. A ir Ma r s ha l S.D. Eva n s , "A ir Power in the Defen ce of A us tr a lia : The Str a tegic Con text," in
Des m on d Ba ll, ed ., A ir Power : Globa l Developm en ts a n d A us tr a lia n Per s pectives (Syd n ey: Per ga m on -
Br a s s ey's Defen ce Publis her s , 1988), p. 122.
I
109
INSTITUTIONA LIZED REGIONA L SECURITY DIA LOGUE
The m os t fun d a m en ta l build in g block for r egion a l s ecur ity cooper a tion a n d
con fid en ce-build in g is the in s titution a liza tion of r egion a l s ecur ity d ia logue.
Such d ia logue s hould lea d to better a ppr ecia tion of the con cer n s , in ter es ts
a n d per ception s of the pa r ticipa tin g coun tr ies , en ha n cin g m utua l un d er -
s ta n d in g a n d tr us t, a n d pr even tin g m is in ter pr eta tion s , m is un d er s ta n d in gs
a n d s us picion s likely to ca us e ten s ion s a n d even con flict. Mor e gen er a lly,
in s titution a lized d ia logue would s er ve a s a m echa n is m for m a n a gin g s om e
of the un cer ta in ty tha t pr es en tly con foun d s r egion a l s ecur ity pla n n er s a n d
a n a lys ts . However , too m uch s hould n ot be expected fr om the d ia logue
pr oces s in ter m s of a gr eed s olution s to r egion a l s ecur ity pr oblem s , a t lea s t
thr ough the r es t of the 1990s . The ta s k for the n ea r ter m , a s Ma ha thir bin
Moha m a d s ta ted m or e tha n a d eca d e a go with r es pect to r egion a l d ia logue
on econ om ic cooper a tion , is "the ted ious on e of gettin g to kn ow ea ch
other ."77 It could well ta ke m or e tha n a d eca d e for the d evelopin g d ia logue
pr oces s es within the r egion to pr od uce s ufficien t m utua l un d er s ta n d in g,
con fid en ce a n d tr us t for r es olvin g or m a n a gin g s ubs ta n tive r egion a l s ecur ity
is s ues .
In for m a l d ia logue pr oces s es , s uch a s the in cr ea s in g fr equen cy of m eetin gs
of d efen s e chiefs a n d other high-level officer s thr oughout the r egion , a r e
extr em ely im por ta n t. However , thes e n eed to be com plem en ted by s om e
d egr ee of in s titution a lized d ia logue m echa n is m s . Regula r ly s ched uled m eet-
in gs a n d excha n ges of in for m a tion a n d views would ha ve a better cha n ce of
con tin uin g thr ough per iod s of les s tr a n quil politica l win d s tha n a d hoc vis its
a n d m eetin gs ; they could a ls o pr ovid e a m echa n is m for m a in ta in in g lin es of
com m un ica tion when other lin es ha ve been cut by politica l s tor m s , a n d hen ce
of a m elior a tin g the effects of s uch s tor m s on r egion a l r ela tion s . A d egr ee of
in s titution a liza tion which in clud ed the pr epa r a tion of a gen d a s would a ls o
s er ve to focus a n d to pr ovid e s om e con tin uity to the d ia logue.
Ther e ha ve been s om e ver y s ign ifica n t d evelopm en ts in this a r ea over the
pa s t few yea r s . The m os t im por ta n t of thes e is the A SEA N Pos t-Min is ter ia l
Con fer en ce (PMC) pr oces s . In 1990, the n otion of us in g the PMCs of the
m eetin gs of the A SEA N For eign Min is ter s a s a for um for r egion a l s ecur ity
77. Ma ha thir bin Moha m a d , "'Ta k Ken a l Ma ka Ta k Cin ta '," in A s ia -Pa cific in the 1980s : Towa r d
Gr ea ter Sym m etr y in Econ om ic In ter d epen d en ce (Ja ka r ta : Cen ter for Str a tegic a n d In ter n a tion a l
Stud ies , Ma y 1980), p. 18.
d ia logue wa s in for m a lly r a is ed within the A SEA N In s titutes of Str a tegic a n d
In ter n a tion a l Stud ies . The es s en ce of the n otion wa s tha t the A SEA N PMC
wa s a lr ea d y a well-es ta blis hed m echa n is m for br in gin g together the s ix n a -
tion s of A SEA N a n d their "d ia logue pa r tn er s ," a n d tha t it wa s pr a ctica ble to
exten d it in m em ber s hip to in clud e other A s ia -Pa cific coun tr ies a n d in a gen d a
to in clud e r egion a l politica l a n d s ecur ity is s ues . In Jun e 1991, the A SEA N
In s titutes r ecom m en d ed to their gover n m en ts tha t they m ove to effect this
pr opos a l.78 The pr opos a l wa s d is cus s ed by the A SEA N Min is ter s a t the
Twen ty-four th A SEA N Min is ter ia l Meetin g in Kua la Lum pur on July 19-20,
1991; a Join t Com m un ique is s ued on July 20 s ta ted tha t the A SEA N PMC
wa s a n "a ppr opr ia te ba s e" for a d d r es s in g r egion a l pea ce a n d s ecur ity is -
s ues .79 This wa s en d or s ed a t the Four th A SEA N Sum m it in Sin ga por e in
Ja n ua r y 1992.
Sever a l a tten d a n t d evelopm en ts a r e n eed ed if the A SEA N PMC pr oces s is
to a ccom m od a te fully the r equir em en ts of a n in s titution a lized r egion a l s e-
cur ity d ia logue. To begin with, the PMC a r r a n gem en ts n eed to becom e m or e
fully m ultila ter a lized , both in m em ber s hip, to in clud e the s o-ca lled "n on -
like-m in d ed " (Chin a , Rus s ia , Vietn a m , La os , a n d Nor th Kor ea ), a n d in
a gen d a pr epa r a tion , to br oa d en the pur view beyon d es s en tia lly A SEA N
con cer n s . This d evelopm en t is a lr ea d y un d er wa y: Chin a a n d Rus s ia ha ve
been in vited a s gues ts to the A SEA N Min is ter ia l Meetin gs s in ce 1991, a n d
La os a n d Vietn a m ha ve n ow a ls o been in vited .80 It is likely tha t thes e four
coun tr ies will effectively be full "d ia logue pa r tn er s " on politica l a n d s ecur ity
m a tter s by 1994. In a d d ition , the PMC pr oces s m us t be s uppor ted by the
d evelopm en t of s om e in s titution a lized in fr a s tr uctur e a t both the officia l a n d
n on -gover n m en ta l levels . This d evelopm en t is a ls o n ow un d er wa y a t the
officia l level. In Jun e 1991, the A SEA N In s titutes of Str a tegic a n d In ter n a tion a l
Stud ies pr opos ed tha t ther e be in s tituted a "s en ior officia ls m eetin g [SOM]
m a d e up of s en ior officia ls of the A SEA N s ta tes a n d the d ia logue pa r tn er s "
to s uppor t the A SEA N PMC pr oces s (e.g., with r es pect to the pr epa r a tion
of a gen d a s a n d m eetin g a r r a n gem en ts ).81 The fir s t of the SOMs wa s held in
78. A SEA N In s titutes of Str a tegic a n d In ter n a tion a l Stud ies (ISIS), A Tim e For In itia tive: Pr opos a ls
for the Con s id er a tion of the Four th A SEA N Sum m it, Jun e 4, 1991, pp. 4-5.
79. Join t Com m un ique of the Twen ty Four th A SEA N Min is ter ia l Meetin g, Kua la Lum pur , July 19-20,
1991, p. 5.
80. See Jus uf Wa n a n d i, "Developm en ts in the A s ia -Pa cific Region ," pa per pr epa r ed for a s ym -
pos ium on The Cha n gin g A s ia -Pa cific Scen e in the 1990s : Secur ity, Cooper a tion a n d Developm en t
(Beijin g: Chin a Cen ter for In ter n a tion a l Stud ies , A ugus t 10-12, 1991), p. 26.
81. A SEA N ISIS, A Tim e For In itia tive, p. 5. For fur ther d is cus s ion of the r ole of SOMs , s ee His
I
111
Sin ga por e in Ma y 1993, a n d in clud ed d is cus s ion of pr opos ed m ultila ter a l
a ppr oa ches to r egion a l pea ce a n d s ecur ity.82 On the other ha n d , pr opos a ls
for n on -gover n m en ta l s uppor t s tr uctur es r em a in un d er d evelopm en t; they
wa r r a n t s tr on g en cour a gem en t.
The PMC a n d a tten d a n t pr oces s es r em a in focus ed , of cour s e, on the m or e
for eign policy a s pects of s ecur ity, r a ther tha n the m ilita r y d im en s ion . How-
ever , ther e ha ve a ls o been im por ta n t d evelopm en ts with r es pect to in s titu-
tion a lized d efen s e d ia logue over the pa s t couple of yea r s . A r r a n gem en ts for
r egula r d is cus s ion s between d efen s e in telligen ce officia ls , a lbeit m os tly on
bila ter a l ba s es , n ow in volve ea ch of the A SEA N coun tr ies a n d m a n y of the
d ia logue pa r tn er s . In A pr il 1992, Ma la ys ia n Min is ter for Defen s e Na jib a n -
n oun ced tha t Ma la ys ia wa s "willin g to hos t the fir s t of a pr opos ed s er ies of
A s ia -Pa cific s ecur ity d ia logue m eetin gs ," to which ea ch pa r ticipa n t "could
s en d a d elega tion m a d e up of va r ious r epr es en ta tives of their s ecur ity [i.e.,
d efen s e] a gen cies , both m ilita r y a n d civilia n ."83 The fir s t of the "Na jib ta lks "
took pla ce in Kua la Lum pur in Jun e 1993. Such m eetin gs will pr ovid e a for um
for d is cus s ion of s uch m a tter s a s d efen s e a s s es s m en ts , oper a tion a l con cepts ,
d efen s e pla n n in g, exer cis es a n d wea pon s a cquis ition s which would be im -
por ta n t for r egion a l tr a n s pa r en cy but which r em a in out of boun d s for public
d is clos ur e.
Con clus ion s
It is n eces s a r y to s tr es s tha t the d evelopm en t of r egion a l cooper a tive s ecur ity
a n d con fid en ce-build in g m ea s ur es to the poin t wher e they becom e a s ign if-
ica n t a s pect of the r egion a l s tr a tegic a r chitectur e will n ot be ea s y. The A s ia -
Pa cific r egion is ver y d is pa r a te: quite d iffer en t s ecur ity per ception s obta in ,
outs ta n d in g ter r itor ia l a n d legitim a cy con flicts r equir e r es olution , a n d ther e
is ver y little tr a d ition of s ecur ity cooper a tion , a t lea s t on a m ultila ter a l ba s is .
The is s ues them s elves a r e gen er a lly com plex, a n d the pr a ctica l a n d oper a -
tion a l fa ctor s in volved in the es ta blis hm en t of effective CSBM r egim es a r e
extr em ely d em a n d in g.
Excellen cy Dr . Ta r o Na ka ya m a , Min is ter for For eign A ffa ir s of Ja pa n , "Sta tem en t to the Gen er a l
Ses s ion of the A SEA N Pos t-Min is ter ia l Con fer en ce," Kua la Lum pur , Ma la ys ia , July 22, 1991,
pp. 12-13; a n d Wa n a n d i, "Developm en ts in the A s ia -Pa cific Region ," p. 27.
82. Peter Gill, "U.S. Ta kes New Lin e On Region a l Secur ity," A us tr a lia n Fin a n cia l Review, Ma r ch
2, 1993, p. 12.
83. Na jib, "Towa r d s Cooper a tive Secur ity a n d Region a l Sta bility," p. 137.
However , the fa ct tha t the exer cis e will n ot be ea s y is n ot a n excus e for
in a ction . The n eed for r egion a l CSBMs is too im por ta n t for tha t. Ra ther , it
m ea n s tha t policy-m a ker s , officia ls a n d s ecur ity a n a lys ts will ha ve to d evote
in cr ea s in g a tten tion a n d r es our ces to the pr a ctica l a n d oper a tion a l con s id er -
a tion s in volved in in s titution a lizin g gr ea ter r egion a l cooper a tion . The in itia l
s teps or "build in g blocks " will n eces s a r ily be m od es t. The pla ce to s ta r t is
with d ia logue a n d other m ea s ur es d es ign ed to en ha n ce m utua l un d er s ta n d -
in g a n d con fid en ce in the r egion . The cr itica l ques tion is whether or n ot the
a r r a n gem en ts for en ha n ced r egion a l cooper a tion ca n be in s tituted to the poin t
wher e they ca n en a ble the effective m a n a gem en t of the extr a or d in a r y cha n ges
a n d the in cr ea s in g com plexities a n d un cer ta in ties which cha r a cter ize the
em er gin g s ecur ity en vir on m en t in the A s ia -Pa cific r egion .

Arms and Affluence Military Acquisitions in The Asia-Pacific Region

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Arms and Affluence: Military Acquisitions in the Asia-Pacific Region

Author(s): Desmond Ball

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