Top 5 Picks For Next Five Months Now that the incredible performance of January 2013 is behind us, where do we go from here? Are there specific sectors that appear to more promising than others? What small cap stocks are primed for outperformance for the next 5 months? We believe that technology will continue to rule the day with economically sensitive stocks to follow, along with select retail stocks. On the technology side, security software and some hardware appear to be the most attractively priced relative to prospects, while energy, green tech and popular retail names are other choice industry segments. Echo Automotive Inc. (OTCBB ECAU - $2.03) is on the cutting edge of green technology utilizing a novel approach and marketing strategy. The Company develops technologies and products designed for the cost-effective conversion of existing vehicles into highly fuel-efficient hybrids and plug-in hybrids. The key to Echos strategy is the bolt-on nature of its solution that introduces little or, in some cases, no additional points of failure, making it very low risk compared to competing solutions. The Companys EchoDrive system is a solution initially tailored for the fleet vehicle market. Management believes that the current market seeks a solution to high fuel prices but is not capable of producing an electric vehicle that has a favorable price point to warrant large scale purchase. By using its flagship platform technology, ECAU bridges the gap between all-fuel to all-electric motors by converting fleet vehicles into cost- effective, fuel-efficient plug-in hybrids, while providing a 50% reduction in fuel costs. EchoDrive is bolted onto new and existing vehicles cost-effectively to reduce a vehicles fuel consumption. The EchoDrive components include an electric motor, system controller and modular battery-packs that enable the right-sizing of the battery to help
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shorten the return on investment and align to the customers needs and budget. With EchoDrive installed, these vehicles are then plugged in using any available power source from a standard 110 voltage outlet to any industry standard rapid charger via the integrated J-Plug, thereby increasing energy efficiency with grid power. During operation of the vehicle, EchoDrive applies the stored energy via the electric motor to assist the power train when the internal combustion engine is most inefficient, significantly reducing the workload of the engine and the use of fossil fuels. Like hybrid vehicles, EchoDrive recaptures energy for its battery packs when the vehicles utilize their brakes. Additionally, EchoDrives unique engineering allows for uninterrupted driving in the unlikely event of most system or component failures, making EchoDrive an attractive alternative for critical fleet operations. The Company will formally introduce the technology at the National Truck and Equipment Association tradeshow held in Indianapolis, Indiana March 6-8, 2013. Investors should note that the management team at ECAU is first-rate, with members at the C-level boasting resumes with senior management experience in the automotive sector, start-ups, and funding companies. The stock is under major accumulation and we believe it will pick up steam as we get closer to the tradeshow date and as deployment news occurs. Our near term target for this news-driven stock is $4.00.
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Figure I. Technical Chart for ECAU Source: BarChart.com A lot has been written of late regarding a potential rise in natural gas prices. We are leaning toward that camp as well, and what better way to play the trend than a company that services the industry. Heckmann Corporation (NYSE HEK - $3.96) operates as a services-based company focused on total water and wastewater solutions for shale or unconventional oil and gas exploration and production. The Company offers water delivery and disposal, trucking, fluids handling, treatment, temporary and permanent pipeline facilities, and water infrastructure services for oil and gas exploration and production companies. It operates multi-modal water disposal, treatment, trucking, and pipeline transportation operations in select shale areas in the U.S. HEK also transports fresh water for production, and provides services for site preparation, water pit excavations, and remediation. It serves customers seeking fresh water acquisition, temporary water transmission and storage, transportation, treatment or disposal of fresh water, and complex water flows, such as flowback and produced
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brine water in connection with shale oil and gas hydraulic fracturing drilling operations. It also owns and operates a fleet of approximately 600 trucks for water transportation and approximately 1,100 frac tanks. Institutional ownership is nearly 30% and we believe that as natural gas moves higher, so does the stock. Plus, considering that the founder of the Company is nearly 70 years old, we would not be surprised to see a sale of the company in its future, especially as it gains a critical mass of business. That critical mass could occur this year as revenue is projected to explode this year by over 100%, with EPS of $0.20, versus a loss last year. As sales growth is recorded we believe the stock will bust through its $5.49 year high without much difficulty.
Figure I. Technical Chart for HEK Source: BarChart.com
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The semiconductor arena has not been short on gainers, and this appears to be a trend that will continue. One small cap stock with a higher sticker price that tends to follow the semis is Orbotech Ltd. (NASDAQ ORBK - $9.18). Time and time again, I have seen semis rise, and ORBK move higher just a few weeks later. It is up 10% since the start of the year and based on seasonality in its primary businesses, we think that management will guide estimates higher and that the stock will outperform even the semis following 4Q12 results, to be announced next month. Long a favorite of mine, and a major institutional small cap value holding, Orbotech Ltd. has been at the cutting edge of the electronics industry supply chain, as an innovator of enabling technologies used in the manufacture of the worlds most sophisticated consumer and industrial products, for over 30 years. The Company is a leading provider of yield-enhancing and production solutions, primarily for manufacturers of printed circuit boards (PCB), flat panel displays (including LCD) and other electronic components; and today, virtually every electronic device is produced using Orbotech technology. The stock is a major beneficiary of resurgence in the flat panel LCD space, as evidenced by a recent winning bid for $40 million worth of business, earlier this month. The Companys automated optical inspection equipment carries an enviable 60% market share in PCBs and over 90% in LCDs. The big growth in the 2013 production of smaller form factors and more sophisticated mobile phones, tablets, and other hand- held devices should result in sales growth and huge EPS growth this year. ORBK appears to have passed the bottoming phase technically and seems poised to reach the $12 mark, aided in part by a $30 million stock buyback. The Company is currently projected by the Street to earn $0.57 in 2013, after a big loss in 2012 and we would not be surprised to see margin expansion as the year goes on. As that occurs, look for buyers of the stock to migrate from small cap value to small cap growth, which could drive ORBK toward our target price by mid-year, or sooner.
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Figure I. Technical Chart for ORBK Source: BarChart.com Everyone is familiar with RadioShack Corp. (NYSE RSH - $2.80), even if you are not a fan of the electronics chain. While ECAU is clearly a high-risk, high-reward play, RSH is a value play that is also under significant accumulation. RSH is a leading national retailer of innovative mobile technology products and services, as well as products related to personal and home technology and power supply needs. While founded as a source of electronic parts and power supplies, the Companys bailiwick in the 21 st century is to provide consumers with a targeted assortment of wireless phones and other electronic products and services from leading national brands, exclusive private brands and major wireless carriers, all within a comfortable and convenient shopping environment. The Company employs approximately 34,000 knowledgeable sales experts globally through its retail network of approximately 4,700 company-operated stores in the U.S. and Mexico, 1,500 wireless phone centers in the U.S., and 1,100 dealer and other outlets worldwide.
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In the middle of January, the Company terminated its mobility sales agreement with Target (NYSE TGT) which on the surface was likely a good move as it was not adding materially to operating performance. However, we take a different approach to this move. We believe that the $4.4 billion in annual sales retailer may have made this move as a precursor to a sale of the company to either another retailer or a firm that may have preferred the Target contract not be renewed. The stock has run substantially higher on no news, and we believe that could be telling for a stock that trades with a market cap of less than $450 million, or 10% of its revenue. In our view, RSH could turn out to be a strong M&A play, and believe the price could approach the upper $3.00 to low $4.00 range. Even without such a transaction, the value stock seems to be in the midst of a turnaround, so investors with a longer term outlook may still eke out sizable gains.
Figure I. Technical Chart for RSH Source: BarChart.com
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We would be remiss in highlighting technology stocks without profiling our software security pick. Zix Corporation (NASDAQ ZIXI - $3.32) provides email encryption solutions in software as a service model in the U.S. Its encryption service delivers information in a secure manner and enables the use of Internet-based email for sensitive information exchange primarily in the healthcare, financial services, insurance, and government sectors. It offers email encryption service, a secure messaging service that allows an enterprise to use policy-driven rules to determine which emails should be sent securely to comply with regulations or company- defined policies. The Company also provides a patented solution, which analyzes and encrypts email communications. Its services allow users to send encrypted email to any email user at any email address by using the ZixCorp Best Method of Delivery protocol, which automatically determines the direct and appropriate means of delivery, based on the sender and recipient communications environment and preferences. There is a lot to like about ZIXI and we are surprised it has stayed under the radar screen for so long. ZIXI boasts major financial and health care clients who require the highest level of email encryption and security. The Companys ZixDirectory the worlds largest community of email encryption users with tens of millions of members and more than 100,000 new addresses per week, is a key selling point given the huge critical mass. ZIXI is a high margin software company generating a healthy 25% operating margin through the sales and service revenue generated from its Tier 1 customers. The stock is trading at a low valuation (16x 2013 EPS of $0.20) for a company in this space, especially considering the deep Wall Street research coverage for such a sub-$50M in revenue firm. Still, this low valuation relative to its growth rate and its industry peer group will not remain the case for long. Already it is beginning to trade on much higher volume, and with the current price just below its 52 week high, we believe the next stop is $5.00.
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Figure I. Technical Chart for ZIXI Source: BarChart.com