If a Grad Rocket Falls

During a Cease-Fire
How do you make peace in Ukraine when none of the
people with guns are listening?
BY
ALEC LUHN!E"#E$BE% &' ()*+
#!,' Ukraine - Hea.y machinegun /re rang out on !unday
morning from inside 0onetsk airport' which is held 1y Ukrainian
go.ernment forces and has 1een the scene of intense /ghting o.er the past
four months2 !hortly after came a do3en low 1ooms of artillery /re' most
likely 4rad incendiary rockets2
#hese were the sounds of 5riday6s cease/re 1etween ,ie. and %ussia
1acked re1els falling apart2 7n further e.idence of the cease/re6s de1ility'
homes were 1urning in the .illage of !partak ne8t to the airport after 1eing
shelled2
Natasha ,ra.chuk was on her way to try to sa.e her house after a neigh1or
told her it was on /re2 !he has 1een li.ing in an apartment her children
rented in downtown 0onetsk in order to 1e farther from the fre9uent
shelling on the city6s outskirts2
:Yesterday' friends called from Crimea to congratulate us on the cease/re'
1ut no one here 1elie.es in any cease/re': ,ra.chuk said 1etween so1s as
she passed through a re1el checkpoint on her way to !partak2
Both go.ernment and re1el o;cials said they adhered to the cease/re and
1lamed the other side for 1reaking it2 But the 1ackslide into /ghting has
re.ealed the .irtual impossi1ility of enforcing a truce in a con<ict where
1oth sides are made up of a motley crew of /ghting units with limited
communications and an unclear chain of command2 And while the cease
/re is ad.antageous for ,ie.' it6s not clear the re1els are dedicated to
preser.ing it2
=n 5riday e.ening' representati.es of ,ie. and the selfdeclared separatist
go.ernments 1egan a truce as part of a peace plan outlined 1y %ussian
president >ladimir "utin' 1ut shelling resumed the ne8t e.ening near a
Ukrainian military checkpoint outside $ariupol' on Ukraine6s southeast
coast' destroying a fuel station and killing one ci.ilian2 #he =rgani3ation for
!ecurity and Cooperation in Europe reported small arms' rocketpropelled
grenade' and artillery /re after re1el /ghters shot at go.ernment forces in
!hchastya' north of the separatistheld city of Luhansk2
#he repeated .iolation of the cease/re o.er the weekend prompted
another round of /ngerpointing in ,ie. and 0onetsk2 A re1el commander at
a checkpoint near the 0onetsk airport who declined to gi.e his name said
the Ukrainian forces were /ring on !partak e.en though no re1els were
there2 :?e ha.e an order not to shoot e8cept to sa.e li.es': he said2
But a .ideo /lmed 1y #he Associated "ress #ele.ision News @A"#NA in
!partak on !unday showed re1el forces operating there2 A local resident in
the .ideo said that the re1els had /rst shelled the airport from the .illage'
and then Ukrainian forces /red 1ack2
#his is the second truce to fall apart in eastern Ukraine in the last three
months. "resident "etro "oroshenko declared a muchheralded cease/re in
Bune' only to withdraw it after *) days2 His announcement was immediately
followed 1y a monthlong Ukrainian oCensi.e that captured the re1el
stronghold of !lo.iansk and se.eral other cities' suggesting the go.ernment
forces had used the respite to reposition their /ghters2
#he Ukrainian military' in retreat for weeks and reeling from a 1loody 1attle
at 7lo.aisk late last month' also appears to regard the current cease/re as
a chance to regroup rather than a step toward peace2 !peaking on
Ukrainian tele.ision on 5riday' National !ecurity and 0efense Council
spokesman Andriy Lysenko said this cease/re will allow the military to
reposition its troops and do reconnaissance on the location of enemy forces2
:?e ha.e the chance to deploy our forces that are now 1eing reformed and
ree9uipped' recei.e new arms and mo.e into the starting position':
Lysenko said2
$eanwhile' the re1els are fresh oC a string of .ictories and likely don6t want
to let the Ukrainian forces regroup2 #he prime minister of the selfdeclared
Luhansk "eople6s %epu1lic' 7gor "lotnitsky' who participated in the cease
/re negotiations' said on !unday that the Ukrainian Army and National
4uard must 1e withdrawn from the 0onetsk and Luhansk regions'
suggesting the re1els would continue their ad.ance2 His counterpart in
0onetsk' Ale8ander Dakharchenko' said at a rally cele1rating the .ictory
o.er the 4ermans here in *E+F that :we li1erated #elmano.e yesterday':
referring to a town in the region that has 1een in contention2
Both the re1el and go.ernment forces are comprised of a potpourri of
/ghting units' most of which center around an indi.idual leader2 #his has
led to a chaotic command structure that makes such truces di;cult to
enforce on the ground' according to >ladimir %u1an' a former lieutenant
general in the Ukrainian Army who has 1een negotiating prisoner
e8changes on 1ehalf of ,ie. and persuaded the re1els to participate in
peace talks2
:!ome people aren6t interested in a cease/re 222 on 1oth sides': %u1an said'
suggesting rogue actors may keep /ghting' despite their leadership6s
intentions2
!lo.o i 0elo' an N4= that monitors Ukrainian politicians' recently compiled
a list of FG .olunteer 1attalions /ghting on the side of ,ie.' many of which
include radical /ghters who say they don6t trust the military
leadership2 $em1ers of the A3o. Battalion' which is defending the coastal
city of $ariupol' griped last week a1out the cease/re that was then 1eing
negotiated' with one calling it a :political game2:
#he lines of communication 1etween nominally allied groups are limited2
#he 0efense $inistry 1lamed the recent massacre of .olunteers at
7lo.aisk on the :independence of .olunteer 1attalions and lack of e8act
coordination 1etween them and the military2: #he pro1lem is partly
technicalH #he 0efense $inistry said Ukrainian forces had no a1ility to send
encrypted communications during the 1attle2 Apro' a militia /ghter who
fought in 7lo.aisk on the proUkrainian side and ga.e only his /rst name'
told me they often communicated 1y cellphone 1ecause his unit has a
se.ere shortage of radios2
#he re1els6 ranks are e9ually disharmonious2#he separatist military
leadership is rife with would1e warlords2 7 witnessed a miniature turf war
1etween ri.al groups in downtown 0onetsk in BuneH 5ighters reportedly loyal
to 7gor :0e.il: Be3ler' the top commander in the city of 4orlo.ka' took o.er
the regional police head9uarters' killing an o;cer2 #hey .acated it after an
hourslong gun/ght with re1els from a 0onetsk1ased unit led 1y
Dakharchenko2
7n a Buly recording of what Ukraine6s security ser.ice said was a
con.ersation 1etween Ale8ander Borodai' then the prime minister of the
0onetsk "eople6s %epu1lic' and a %ussian politician' Borodai complains of
the chaos caused 1y too many commanders and pro1lems communicating
with certain leaders2 #he second half of the tape features an e8pleti.e/lled
con.ersation in which .oices identi/ed as 1elonging to two other re1el
o;cials complain a1out top military leader 7gor !trelko.2
#he re1el top 1rass has also undergone a shakeup in recent weeks after
Borodai' !trelko.' and the pre.ious prime minister of the Luhansk "eople6s
%epu1lic suddenly left their posts' confusing the situation further2
Nonetheless' leaders from 1oth sides continue to pu1licly 1ack the cease
/re' with "oroshenko 1oasting in $ariupol on $onday that () Ukrainian
soldiers had 1een freed since it took eCect2 But while the leadership may
promise a cease/re' the ultimate 9uestion is whether /eld commanders
will follow it2
:?hat cease/re? No one is o1ser.ing it': the re1el commander in !partak
said in the A"#N .ideo' 1efore he and his men departed in a troop transport
truck and a pickup with an antiaircraft gun mounted on the 1ack' one
/ghter holding his /st up in the air in de/ance2
Posted by Thavam