Moving Average Example

Simple Moving Average Forecast with N=3 (solution)
Days (t) Demand (Dt) Average (At) Forecast (Ft) Error (et)
1
401
380
411
397.3
415
402.0
397.3
-17.7
393
406.3
402.0
9.0
375
394.3
406.3
31.3
410
392.7
394.3
-15.7
395
393.3
392.7
-2.3
406
403.7
393.3
-12.7
10
424
408.3
403.7
-20.3
11
433
421.0
408.3
-24.7
12
391
416.0
421.0
30.0
13
396
406.7
416.0
20.0
14
417
401.3
406.7
-10.3
15
383
398.7
401.3
18.3
ISyE 691: Supply Chain and Logistics: Design, Operation and Coordination
Simple Moving Average Forecast with N=6 (solution)

1
401
380
411
415
393
375
395.8
410
397.3
395.8
-14.2
395
399.8
397.3
2.3
406
399.0
399.8
-6.2
10
424
400.5
399.0
-25.0
11
433
407.2
400.5
-32.5
12
391
409.8
407.2
16.2
13
396
407.5
409.8
13.8
14
417
411.2
407.5
-9.5
15
383
407.3
411.2
28.2
Weighted Moving Average Forecast with N=3

1
401
380
411
403.8
415
410.7
403.8
-11.2
393
399.2
410.7
17.7
375
382.6
399.2
24.2
410
401.3
382.6
-27.4
395
396.0
401.3
6.3
406
404.2
396.0
-10.0
10
424
417.5
404.2
-19.8
11
433
428.5
417.5
-15.5
12
391
402.7
428.5
37.5
13
396
398.7
402.7
6.
14
417
410.2
398.7
-18.3
15
383
391.1
410.2
27.2
Multi-Step forecast using Moving Average (MA)

How do we get multi-step ahead forecast using MA?
What is the two-step ahead forecast for periods 5 to 8 using N=3?
Ft+2 = At
At = (1/N)(Dt + Dt-1 + + Dt-N+1)
1
401
380
411
397.3
415
402.0
393
406.3
397.3
4.3
375
394.3
402.0
27.0
410
392.7
406.3
-3.7
395
393.3
394.3
-0.7
406
403.7
392.7
13.3
Exponential Smoothing Method Forecast with =0.1

1
401
400.1
400
-1.0
380
398.1
400.1
20.1
411
399.4
398.1
-12.9
415
400.9
399.4
-15.6
393
400.1
400.9
7.9
375
397.6
400.1
25.1
410
398.9
397.6
-12.4
395
398.5
398.9
3.9
406
399.2
398.5
-7.5
10
424
401.7
399.2
-24.8
11
433
404.8
401.7
-31.3
12
391
403.5
404.8
13.8
13
396
402.7
403.5
7.5
14
417
404.1
402.7
-14.3
15
383
402.0
404.1
21.1
Exponential Smoothing Method Forecast with =0.8

1
401
400.8
400
380
384.2
400.8
20.8
411
405.6
384.2
-26.8
415
413.1
405.6
-9.4
393
397.0
413.1
20.1
375
379.4
397.0
22.0
410
403.9
379.4
-30.6
395
396.8
403.9
8.9
-1.0
406
404.2
396.8
-9.2
10
424
420.0
404.2
-19.8
11
433
430.4
420.0
-13.0
12
391
398.9
430.4
39.4
13
396
396.6
398.9
2.9
14
417
412.9
396.6
-20.4
15
383
389.0
412.9
29.9
Double Exponential Smoothing with =0.3 and =0.2

Days (t) Demand (Dt) Average (At) Trend (Tt)
Forecast (Ft) Error (et)
401
403.8
4.8
405.0
4.0
380
399.9
3.1
408.6
28.6
411
405.3
3.5
403.0
-7.9
415
410.7
3.9
408.9
-6.1
393
408.2
2.6
414.7
21.7
375
400.0
0.4
410.7
35.7
410
403.3
1.0
400.5
-9.5
395
401.5
0.5
404.3
9.3
406
403.2
0.7
401.9
-4.0
10
424
409.9
1.9
403.9
-20.1
11
433
418.2
3.2
411.8
-21.2
12
391
412.3
1.4
421.4
30.4
13
396
408.3
0.3
413.6
17.6
14
417
411.1
0.8
408.6
-8.4
15
383
403.3
-0.9
411.9
28.9
Linear Regression with n=10

x
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
55
5.5
y
401
380
411
415
393
375
410
395
406
424
4010
401
11
12
13
14
15
433
391
396
417
383
x^2
1
4
9
16
25
36
49
64
81
100
385
38.5
x*y
401
760
1233
1660
1965
2250
2870
3160
3654
4240
22193
2219.3
a
391.8
b
1.67273
Yhat
393.5
395.1
396.8
398.5
400.2
401.8
403.5
405.2
406.9
408.5
e
-7.5
15.1
-14.2
-16.5
7.2
26.8
-6.5
10.2
0.9
-15.5
410.2
411.9
413.5
415.2
416.9
-22.8
20.9
17.5
-1.8
33.9

y
401
380
411
415
393
375
410
395
406
424
433
391
396
417
383
Error
AbsError SquaredError
PercentageError
-7.5
7.53
56.66
1.88
-7.5
15.1
15.15
229.38
3.99
7.6
-14.2
14.18
201.12
3.45
-6.6
-16.5
16.51
272.55
3.98
-23.1
7.2
7.16
51.32
1.82
-15.9
26.8
26.84
720.19
7.16
10.9
-6.5
6.49
42.13
1.58
4.4
10.2
10.18
103.67
2.58
14.6
0.9
0.85
0.73
0.21
15.5
-15.5
15.47
239.41
3.65
0.0
-22.8
22.80
519.84
5.27
-22.8
20.9
20.87
435.67
5.34
-1.9
17.5
17.55
307.84
4.43
15.6
-1.8
1.78
3.17
0.43
13.8
33.9
33.89
1148.59
8.85
47.7
14.48
288.82
3.64

y = 1.6727x + 391.8
2
R = 0.1075
Series1
Linear (Series1)
430
420
410
400
390
380
370
0
10
12

x
x^2
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
155
15.5
401
380
411
415
393
375
410
395
406
424
4010
401
21
22
23
24
25
433
391
396
417
383
x*y
121
144
169
196
225
256
289
324
361
400
2485
248.5
a
b
Yhat
e
4411 375.073 1.67273
393.5
4560
395.1
5343
396.8
5810
398.5
5895
400.2
6000
401.8
6970
403.5
7110
405.2
7714
406.9
8480
408.5
62293
6229.3
410.2
411.9
413.5
415.2
416.9
-7.5
15.1
-14.2
-16.5
7.2
26.8
-6.5
10.2
0.9
-15.5
-22.8
20.9
17.5
-1.8
33.9

y
401
380
411
415
393
375
410
395
406
424
433
391
396
417
383
Error
AbsError SquaredError
PercentageError
-7.5
7.53
56.66
1.88
-7.5
15.1
15.15
229.38
3.99
7.6
-14.2
14.18
201.12
3.45
-6.6
-16.5
16.51
272.55
3.98
-23.1
7.2
7.16
51.32
1.82
-15.9
26.8
26.84
720.19
7.16
10.9
-6.5
6.49
42.13
1.58
4.4
10.2
10.18
103.67
2.58
14.6
0.9
0.85
0.73
0.21
15.5
-15.5
15.47
239.41
3.65
0.0
-22.8
22.80
519.84
5.27
-22.8
20.9
20.87
435.67
5.34
-1.9
17.5
17.55
307.84
4.43
15.6
-1.8
1.78
3.17
0.43
13.8
33.9
33.89
1148.59
8.85
47.7
14.48
288.82
3.64

Series1
y = 1.6727x + 375.07
R2 = 0.1075
Linear (Series1)
430
420
410
400
390
380
370
10
12
14
16
18
20
22

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Moving Average Example

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Simple Moving Average Forecast with N=3 (solution)

Simple Moving Average Forecast with N=6 (solution)

Weighted Moving Average Forecast with N=3

Multi-Step forecast using Moving Average (MA)

Exponential Smoothing Method Forecast with =0.1

Exponential Smoothing Method Forecast with =0.8

Double Exponential Smoothing with =0.3 and =0.2

Forecast (Ft) Error (et)

Linear Regression with n=10

Linear Regression with n=10

Linear Regression with n=10

Linear Regression with n=10

Linear Regression with n=10

Linear Regression with n=10

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