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Exercise Question 1
John is responsible for coming up with a forecast of the number of visitors to Metro Zoo. He has
gathered the following data on the number of visitors over the last seven weeks:
Based on the data above, what is John’s forecast of the number of visitors for week 8 using
each of the following methods?
c) A five-week weighted moving average using a weight of 0.3 for t-1 (i.e., one period before),
0.25 for t-2 (i.e., two periods before), 0.2 for t-3 (i.e., three periods before), 0.15 for t-4 (i.e.,
four periods before) and 0.1 for t-5 (i.e., five periods before).
d) An Exponential Smoothing method, assuming that the forecast for week 5 was 900, using a
value of 0.3 for α .
Calculate the forecasting performance measures using the following methods. [Show all your
calculations and put each of your final answers in the box in front of each method].
1 54 58 -4 4 16 (4/54)x100 = 7.41%
2 47 56 -9 9 81 (9/47)x100 = 19.15%
3 50 52 -2 2 4 (2/50)x100 = 4%
4 42 51 -9 9 81 (9/42)x100 = 21.43%
Exercise 2 Calculations: