Increasing the EUs Energy

Independence
Technical report





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Increasing the EUs Energy
Independence
Technical report





By: Pieter van Breevoort, Markus Hagemann, Niklas Hhne, Thomas Day, Rolf de Vos
Date: ! "#to$er !%&

Pro'e#t num$er: ()*D+%,!-



Ecofys 2014 by order of: World Resorces Institte













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Chamber of Commerce 301611#1

Table of contents

% *ntrodu#tion %
Natural gas .rodu#tion and im.orts in the +/
0 Natural gas demand in $uildings 1
!"1 #rrent stats and otloo$ %
!"2 The i&pact of energy efficiency and rene'able energy (
& Natural gas demand in industry %!
4"1 #rrent stats and otloo$ 10
4"2 The i&pact of energy efficiency and rene'able energy 11
, Natural gas demand in energy su..ly %
)"1 #rrent stats and otloo$ 12
)"2 The i&pact of energy efficiency and rene'able energy 1!
2 *m.li#ations for the +/ %,
*"1 Energy de&and and spply 1)
*"2 +,+ e&issions 1(
1 Notes on methodology %
%"1 -.er.ie' of scenarios 21
%"2 What is cost/effecti.e0 22
%"! Rene'able energy gro'th rates 22
%"4 1atral gas de.elop&ent in the energy spply sector 2!
%") 2cope 2!
Referen#es ,







#3I4E1)20( 1
1 Introdction

#rrent geopolitical circ&stances5 co&bined 'ith depletion of do&estic natral gas resorces and
the threat of cli&ate change5 raise the 6estion of the e7tent to 'hich the EUs dependence on
natral gas i&ports can be decreased" Increasing do&estic natral gas prodction cold te&porarily
relie.e dependence on i&ported energy5 bt redcing de&and for natral gas 'ill ha.e a greater
i&pact on energy secrity o.er the long ter&" This can be achie.ed 'ith strengthened energy
efficiency and rene'able energy efforts5 'hich 'old also redce greenhose gas 8+,+9 e&issions"

This technical report addresses the potential for energy efficiency and rene'able energy to displace
natral gas se in the EU 2(5 and discsses the i&plications of this potential for energy secrity and
cli&ate change" It is acco&panied by a separate 2&&ary for :olicy&a$ers" This report lays ot the
analysis presented in the 2&&ary5 and the nderlying ass&ptions and calclations in greater
detail" ;fter a brief o.er.ie' of the crrent sitation regarding natral gas dependence in Erope5
this report focses on the three &ain natral gas/cons&ing sectors: bildings5 indstry and energy
spply" Each chapter discsses the crrent stats and pro<ected de.elop&ent of the sectors and lays
ot ho' energy efficiency and rene'able energy can help redce dependence on fossil fel i&ports in
the EU" =inally5 'e discss the i&plications at EU/le.el5 re.ie'ing possible i&pacts on pri&ary energy
spply as 'ell as +,+ e&issions ntil 20!0"

The paper co&pares pri&ary and final energy as 'ell as natral gas cons&ption and +,+ e&issions
nder a n&ber of scenarios 8see also 2ection %"19:
;ctal 1>>0 8?1>>0@9 and 2012 8?2012@9 figres ta$en fro& Erostat 82014a9 and Erostat
82014b9
:ro<ections as reported by :ri&es 8?20!0/A;U@9 fro& Eropean #o&&ission 8201!9
pro<ections for the EU 20!0 =ra&e'or$ 8?#rrent 20!0 EU =ra&e'or$@9 ta$en fro& the
i&pact assess&ent by the #o&&ission 8Eropean #o&&ission 2014b9
and or o'n analysis as described and nderta$en for this report 8?Energy Independence
20!0@9



#3I4E1)20( 2
2 1atral gas prodction and i&ports in the EU

In this section, we summarize the current state of natural gas production and expected developments
to 2030. While Europes primar energ consumption !gross inland consumption" did not grow
su#stantiall in the past two decades, Europes net import dependenc rate $ the ratio of netimport
to total consumption % did. &he increasing share of natural gas in Europes energ mix, com#ined with
slowl declining domestic production, increased Europes natural gas import dependenc rate as well.
'lthough under the current #usiness%as%usual !(')" scenario, natural gas demand increases onl
slightl through 2030, the net%import increase is greater. &he proposed 2030 framewor* for climate
and energ policies would mitigate this trend, resulting in a decrease in the net%import of natural gas
relative to current imports, and a continuation of !#ut no decline in" the current net import
dependenc rate.

Histori# develo.ments
Energy cons&ption in Erope bet'een 1>>0 and 2012 'as relati.ely stable" ,o'e.er5 Eropes
do&estic energy prodction decreased by 1* per cent o.er this period and net/i&ports
1
increased by
&ore than 20 per cent" The i&port dependency
2
rate increased fro& 4) per cent in 1>>0 to )4 per
cent in 20128Erostat5 2014b9 8=igre 19"


1
1et/i&port is defined as: gross inland cons&ption B spply to international &ariti&e bn$ers C do&estic prodction
2
Erostat: ?849efined as net energy i&ports di.ided by gross inland energy cons&ption pls fel spplied to international &ariti&e
bn$ers5 e7pressed as a percentage"@ In case of natral gas5 fel spplied to international &ariti&e bn$ers is Dero"

#3I4E1)20( !

3igure % Primary energy demand and net im.orts in +uro.e $et4een %55! and !% 6+78year9:
Source: +urostat !%&$

3oo$ing at natral gas cons&ption 8=igre 25 the pictre is different: 'hile total pri&ary energy
de&and has been stable5 natral gas de&and has increased by &ore than !0 per cent" ; &a<or
dri.er of gro'th in de&and 'as the increasing share of natral gas in electricity prodction"
=rther&ore5 'hile natral gas prodction decreased by 1> per cent o.er the period 1>>0/20125 net
i&ports nearly dobled 8E>0 per cent9" This led to an increase in natral gas net i&port dependency
fro& 4) per cent in 1>>0 to ** per cent in 2012"

Gross inland consumption
Net imports
Net import dependency
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Primary energy demand/net imports in Europe [E!year"

#3I4E1)20( 4

3igure Natural gas .rimary energy demand and net im.orts in +uro.e $et4een %55! and !%
6+78year9:
Source: +urostat !%&a


1atral gas prodction in Erope in 2012 totalled )"* EF5 i&ports 14"4 EF5 and e7ports !"* EF 8=igre
!9" Therefore5 Eropes net i&ports neared 11 EF" The largest e7porter to Erope 'as Rssia5 closely
follo'ed by 1or'ay" Aoth contries e7ported abot 4 EF in 2012 8Erostat5 2014a9"

Gross inland consumption
Net imports
Net import dependency
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Natural gas primary energy demand/net imports in Europe [E!year"

#3I4E1)20( )


3igure 0 ;ey natural gas e<.orters to +uro.e, im.ort, e<.ort, .rodu#tion and #onsum.tion in +uro.e in
!%:
=our#e: +urostat !%&$
0


The bilding sector 'as the largest cons&er of natral gas in 2012 8*"4 EF5 or !> per cent of total
natral gas cons&ption95 follo'ed by electricity and heat generation 84"( EF5 2> per cent9 and
indstry 8!"% EF5 2! per cent9"
4
Together5 these sectors accont for >1 per cent of all natral gas
cons&ption in Erope" #hapter !/) pro.ide frther detail on ho' natral gas cons&ption in these
core sectors &ight be redced"

3uture develo.ments
In 20125 Eropes gross final energy cons&ption totalled %0 EF of pri&ary energy5 of 'hich natral
gas acconted for 1*"4 EF 8Erostat5 2014b9" The Eropean #o&&issions 201! :RIGE2 baseline
scenario
)
8Eropean #o&&ission5 201!9 pro<ects a slight decrease in energy se to *( EF by 20!05
'hile natral gas de&and re&ains at the sa&e le.el" ,o'e.er5 the scenario also pro<ects that natral
gas prodction 'ill decrease by 1 EF" #onse6ently5 net i&ports to Erope increase to 12 EF and net
i&port dependency increases to %! per cent"

Recent analysis of ftre natral gas reser.es in so&e of the leading Eropean natral gas prodcing
contries 8na&ely the 1etherlands and the UH95 ho'e.er5 sggests that the decline in prodction 'ill
probably be larger than ass&ed in the :RIGE2 scenario" The 4tch energy forecast released in 2014
pro<ects that prodction of natral gas 'ill decrease fro& 2"4 EF in 2012 to 0"% EF in 20!05 a

!
The total i&port fro& Erostat table InrgJ124aK does not &atch 'ith table InrgJ100aK5 the difference is inclded in the category non/
specified in the left bar
4
The re&ainder is being cons&ed in agricltre5 transport and as feedstoc$ 8non/energy se9
)
In the follo'ing referred to si&ply as ?:RIGE2 scenario@ in the te7t and in the graphs as ?20!0/A;U@
#ussia$ 4
Nor%ay$ 4
6
16
6
&l'eria$ 2
(atar$ 1
Not speci)ied$ 2*56
E+porters to
Europe in 2012
,roduction$ 5*6
-mport$ 14*4
E+port$ 3*6
Net import$ 10*8
,rimary
consumption$ 16*4
0
5
10
15
20
25
Natural gas import, export, production and consumption in Europe in 2012 [E"

#3I4E1)20( *
decrease of %0 per cent 8,e$$enberg5 Lerdon$ 20149" :ro<ections for the UH foresee a decrease fro&
1") EF to 05% EF in the sa&e ti&e period5 a redction of )0 per cent belo' crrent le.els 84E##
20149" Aecase these t'o contries crrently accont for %0 per cent of the EUs natral gas
prodction5 8Erogas 201!95 they ha.e a re&ar$able inflence on the EUs energy spply" If
prodction in the 1etherlands and UH declines according to the national pro<ections cited abo.e5 their
co&bined prodction 'ill decline by 2") EF5 'hich is 1") EF &ore than the decline pro<ected nder the
:RIGE2 scenario"

1atral gas e7traction fro& shale deposits cold play a role in contering this trend" ,o'e.er5 the
ftre of shale gas is nclear" =irstly5 techno/econo&ic pro<ections for shale gas prodction in Erope
foresee only a &inor role in pri&ary prodction of energy5 spplying less than 1 per cent in 20!0
8Hersting et al forthco&ing9" 2econdly5 there are significant en.iron&ental concerns o.er hydralic
fractring 8frac$ing95 inclding conta&ination of srface and grond'ater 'ith che&ical and
radioacti.e ele&ents 8:2E ,ealthy Energy 20149" This creates the need for stringent reglation to
&ini&iDe en.iron&ental i&pacts5 'hich &ight ta$e a long ti&e to establish" 3o' prodction forecasts
and en.iron&ental isses sggest that shale gas fro& frac$ing 'ill play only a s&all role in Erope in
20!0"

The pro<ected redction in natral gas prodction in the 1etherlands and the UH5 co&bined 'ith the
probable li&ited role of shale gas in the ftre5 sggest that do&estic natral gas prodction 'ill play
an e.en s&aller role in the ftre than forecast in the :RIGE2 scenario" ,o'e.er5 to stay consistent
'ith other EU analyses5 'e ass&e in this paper that natral gas prodction de.elops at the sa&e
rate that is ass&ed nder the :RIGE2 scenario"

In 20145 the Eropean #o&&ission proposed an energy and cli&ate pac$age that co&prised an
energy efficiency target
*
of !0 per cent and a rene'able energy target of 2% per cent for 20!0"
%5(

;ccording to the i&pact assess&ent pblished in Fly 2014 8Eropean #o&&ission 2014b95 a
co&bination of these targets 'old lead to a decrease in gross final energy cons&ption to *) EF5
and a decrease in natral gas cons&ption to appro7i&ately 1! EF"
>
The reslting i&port dependency
rate decreases relati.e to bsiness/as/sal 8A;U95 bt does not i&pro.e co&pared to 2012 le.els"
10


To redce energy i&port dependency5 therefore5 natral gas cons&ption needs to be frther
redced" This is feasible throgh &ore rapid deploy&ent of energy efficiency &easres and
rene'able energy sorces" The effects of sch additional efforts are analyDed in the ne7t three
chapters"


*
;t the ti&e of pblication5 the energy efficiency target had not been specified frther"
%
The first target &eans a !0M sa.ings 'ith respect the 200% :RIGE2 baseline scenario the latter a share of 2%M in Eropes gross final
energy cons&ption""
(
Rene'able energy prodction is in case of a 2%M target at the sa&e le.el as in the :RIGE2 201! reference scenario"
>
The i&pact assess&ent &entions *0 EF5 bt this e7cldes non/energy cons&ption" To align this 'ith the definition of gross inland
cons&ption5 the non/energy cons&ption of 20!0 in the 201! baseline scenario 8Eropean #o&&ission5 201!98Eropean #o&&ission5
201!9
10
4epending on the ass&edN&odelled do&estic prodction5 the net/dependency 'old lie in the range *)/%0M"

#3I4E1)20( %
! 1atral gas de&and in bildings
In 20+2, the #uilt environment was the largest consumer of natural gas and final energ in Europe.
(uildings account for ,.- E., or 3/ per cent, of total natural gas consumption. 0f all economic
sectors, #uildings have the greatest energ efficienc potential1 # 2030, improved efficienc
measures could reduce natural gas demand to 3., E.. Enhanced renewa#le energ capacit could
further reduce natural gas demand # an additional 0./ E. to 2.2 E..
!"1 #rrent stats and otloo$
In Erope5 bildings se appro7i&ately 1( EF per year5 e6i.alent to 40 per cent of total final energy
cons&ption" T'o thirds of this energy is cons&ed in residential5 and one third in non/residential
bildings 8Erostat5 2014b9" Energy is cons&ed for space heating5 'ater heating5 space cooling5
coo$ing5 and electric appliances" In residential bildings5 () per cent of the energy is sed for
heating5 coo$ing and coolingO in non/residential bildings5 these ses accont for abot (0 per cent
of energy cons&ption" These shares are e7pected to decrease slightly5 o'ing to increased se of
electric appliances and i&pro.e&ents in the ther&al perfor&ance of bildings"

In 20125 natral gas cons&ption in bildings 'as *"4 EF5 pri&arily acconted for by heating and
coo$ing" The :RIGE2 scenario
11
pro<ects a decrease by 20!0 to )"> EF 8Eropean #o&&ission5
201!9"

Under the :RIGE2 scenario the ther&al perfor&ance of bildings is e7pected to i&pro.e in the
co&ing decades" Aecase e7isting energy efficiency policies that are considered in the :RIGE2
scenario are &ainly ai&ed at ne' bildings and not the retrofit of e7isting bildings5 the o.erall
energy intensity of hoseholds is e7pected to decrease slo'ly" In the :RIGE2 scenario5 energy
cons&ption in bildings re&ains at 1( EF becase5 'hile energy re6ire&ents for heating5 cooling
and coo$ing decline per hosehold5 the n&ber of hoseholds increases"


11
The :RIGE2 scenario ass&es e7isting policies 'ill be i&ple&ented

#3I4E1)20( (

3igure & 3inal energy demand in $uildings in +uro.e in !% and !0! under different s#enarios:
Source: +urostat !%&$, +uro.ean (ommission !%0, +#ofys analysis
!"2 The i&pact of energy efficiency and rene'able energy
In Erope5 the bilt en.iron&ent has a greater potential for energy sa.ing than any other sectorO
significant redctions can be &ade in energy de&and for heating5 in particlar5 throgh
i&pro.e&ents to the bilding en.elope and heating syste&s" The largest ntapped potential is in the
refrbish&ent of e7isting bildings: 'hile Eropean legislation enforces that 1early Pero/Energy
Aildings 81EPA9 'ill be standard fro& 2020 on'ards for ne' bildings5 e7isting bildings are not
sb<ect to higher standards"
12


Energy de&and for heating and cooling can be cost/effecti.ely redced by arond 4/) EF in 20!05
1!

co&pared to A;U 8AoQ&ann5 Eichha&&er5 R Elsland5 2012O Ecofys5 20149" ;bot %0 per cent of this
potential can be realiDed by i&pro.ing the bilding en.elope 8inslation and i&pro.ed glaDing9 'hilst
the re&aining !0 per cent can be achie.ed throgh the i&ple&entation of &ore efficient heating
technologies5 &ost notably heat p&ps" In 20!05 !0/!* per cent of the heat in bildings cold be
deli.ered by heat p&ps5 'hich 'old decrease gas de&and 'hile slightly increasing electricity
de&and"

12
The E:A4 as$s Eropean Ge&ber 2tates to set &ini&& re6ire&ents for bildings and bildings co&ponents nderta$ing &a<or
reno.ation 8Eropean #o&&ission 20109" These reno.ations5 ho'e.er5 are not &andatory as in the 1EPA for ne' bildings"
1!
=or a definition of cost/effecti.eness see 2ection %"2
.olids
/il
Natural 'as
0eat
#ene%a1le ener'y
Electricity
.a2in's 1uildin's 5 E
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2012 2030 3 4&5 Ener'y
independence
2030 6ener'y
e))iciency only7
Ener'y
independence
2030 6ener'y
e))iciency and
rene%a1le
ener'y7
Final energy demand in buildings in Europe [E!year"

#3I4E1)20( >

;dditionally5 electricity de&and for appliances can be redced by nearly 0"% EF 8AoQ&ann et al"5
20129" In total5 energy de&and in bildings can be redced by arond ) EF5 co&pared to A;U 8see
=igre 495 of 'hich natral gas 'old accont for 2"! EF"
14


In the bilt en.iron&ent5 additional rene'able energy 8for e7a&ple5 solar ther&al5 bio&ass9 cold
displace fossil fels sed for heating"
1)
If historic gro'th rates 82000/20109 'ere contined5 1 EF of
additional bio&ass 'old be sed in bildings co&pared to A;U5 redcing de&and for natral gas/
felled energy by an additional 0"> EF"

To s&&ariDe5 cost/effecti.e i&pro.e&ents in energy efficiency and realistic increases in rene'able
energy se cold enable Erope to redce its de&and for natral gas in bildings by &ore than ! EF
in 20!0 co&pared to the A;U" This represents a redction of )( per cent relati.e to de&and for
natral gas in bildings in 2012"










14
We ass&e the energy sa.ing potential for heating is distribted e6ally a&ong fossil fels: this &eans that the share of each fel in the
fossil fel &i7 re&ains the sa&e" ;dditional electricity se for heat p&ps is acconted for"
1)
In this stdy5 heat p&ps are regarded as energy efficiency &easres and not as rene'able energy" In the Eropean target5 the heat
e7tracted fro& the air and grond is acconted 8nder conditions9 as rene'able energy"

#3I4E1)20( 10
4 1atral gas de&and in indstry
In 20+2, the industr sector was the third largest consumer of final energ as well as natural gas in
Europe. Industr accounted for 3.2 E., or 23 per cent, of total natural gas consumption. 0f all three
sectors investigated here, industr has the smallest energ efficienc potential1 # 2030, improved
efficienc measures could reduce natural gas demand to 3.+ E.. Enhanced renewa#le energ capacit
could further reduce natural gas demand # an additional 0.+ E. to 3.0 E..
4"1 #rrent stats and otloo$
The final energy de&and of the indstry sector in Erope 'as nearly 12 EF in 20125 or 2* per cent of
total final energy de&and 8Erostat5 2014b9" The che&ical sbsector and iron and steel prodction
cons&e the largest shares of energy5 each acconting for 20 per cent of total indstrial energy
cons&ption" ;lthogh coal is the pri&ary energy sorce for iron and steel prodction5 natral gas is
i&portant in &any indstrial processes" The che&ical indstry is the sb/sector 'ith the largest
cons&ption of natral gas 820 per cent of indstrial gas cons&ption95 follo'ed by non/&etallic
&ineral prodction 81) per cent9 and food and tobacco 81) per cent9"

3igure , 3inal energy demand in industry in +uro.e in !% and !0! under different s#enarios:
Source: +urostat !%&$, +uro.ean (ommission !%0, +#ofys analysis

;lthogh the energy intensity of indstry 'ill decline in the ftre5 the e7tent of the decline is not
sfficient to co&pensate for the increase in otpt e7pected nder the :RIGE2 scenario" Indstrial
.olids
/il
Natural 'as
0eat
#ene%a1le ener'y
Electricity
.a2in's industry 2 E
0*0
2*0
4*0
6*0
8*0
10*0
12*0
14*0
2012 2030 3 4&5 Ener'y
independence
2030 6ener'y
e))iciency only7
Ener'y
independence
2030 6ener'y
e))iciency and
rene%a1le ener'y7
Final energy demand in industry in Europe [E!year"

#3I4E1)20( 11
energy cons&ption is e7pected to increase 1 EF by 20!0O a notable e7ception to the sector/'ide
gro'th in energy de&and is the che&icals sbsector5 'here energy de&and is pro<ected to decrease
slightly5 despite a gro'th in added .ale 8AoQ&ann et al"5 20129"
1*
The sb/sectors engineering and
non/&etallic &inerals e7perience the highest gro'th rates of energy de&and in the A;U scenario"

4"2 The i&pact of energy efficiency and rene'able energy
Indstrial energy de&and can be redced firstly by i&ple&enting technical &easres to sa.e energy5
sch as best practice technologies5 and secondly by shifting prodction to less energy/intensi.e
prodcts or processes5 for e7a&ple by increasing prodction of recycled steel" In this stdy5 'e
consider only the first option5 that is5 'e ass&e that the strctre of the indstry sector re&ains the
sa&e as in the A;U scenario" Intensifying recycling and increasing the prodction of secondary steel
and al&ini& cold sa.e e.en &ore energy" Ths5 the potential energy sa.ings presented here
represent a conser.ati.e esti&ate"

T'o thirds of indstrial final energy se is spplied by fels" These fels are &ainly sed for heating
processes at different te&peratre le.els" The re&aining third of energy is spplied by electricity5 of
'hich t'o thirds is cons&ed by dri.e &otors5 for e7a&ple for p&ping and .entilation" ;bot %0 per
cent 81"4 EF9 of the cost/effecti.e
1%
energy sa.ings potential applies to fels and can be realiDed by
i&pro.ing processes 8for e7a&ple5 by re/sing heat9 and i&pro.ing heating syste&s 8AoQ&ann et
al"5 20129" ;ccording to =ranhofer 8AoQ&ann et al"5 201295 electricity de&and can be redced by
0"% EF by i&pro.ing electric dri.e syste&s and sing &ore efficient dri.es"

In total5 energy efficiency i&pro.e&ents can redce energy de&and in the indstry sector by 2"1 EF5
co&pared to A;U" These energy sa.ings 'ill redce natral gas de&and by 0"% EF"
1(


Rene'able energy in indstry is pro<ected to gro' in the A;U scenario5 fro& less than 1 EF crrently
to 1"2 EF in 20!0" If rene'able energy se contines to gro' at the sa&e rates obser.ed bet'een
2000 and 20105 then rene'able energy cons&ption 'old reach 1"4 EF by 20!0" This 'old redce
natral gas de&and by another 0"1 EF"

The efforts in energy efficiency and rene'able energy described here cold redce natral gas
de&and by 0"% EF in 20!05 'hich is e6i.alent to &ore than 20 per cent of crrent indstrial natral
gas de&and"

1*
The decrease can be attribted to a higher efficiency as 'ell as a shift to prodcts that are less energy intensi.e
1%
:lease see 2ection %"2 for the definition of cost/effecti.eness sed here
1(
We ass&ed the energy sa.ing potential for heating is distribted e6ally a&ong fossil fels: this &eans that the share of each fel in the
fossil fel &i7 re&ains the sa&e

#3I4E1)20( 12
) 1atral gas de&and in energy spply
In 20+2, energ suppl sector was the second largest consumer natural gas in Europe. Energ suppl
accounted for -.3 E., or 30 per cent, of total natural gas consumption. Energ efficienc measures in
the demand sectors !#uildings and industr" can reduce natural gas consumption to 3.3 E. in the
energ suppl sector, realistic development of renewa#le sources can further reduce natural gas
demand # an additional +.4 E. to +.3 E. in 2030.

)"1 #rrent stats and otloo$
Electricity and heat generation in 2012 cons&ed 2("% EF of pri&ary energy in order to generate
11"> EF 8!5!00 TWh9 of electricity and 2") EF of heat 8Erostat5 2014b9" Gost electricity is prodced
fro& coal and nclear po'erO !"4 EF 8>)0 TWh9 and !"2 EF 8((0 TWh9 respecti.ely" 1atral gas is the
third largest contribtor to electricity generation5 responsible for 2"1 EF 8)(0 EF9 of electricity" The
total pri&ary natral gas cons&ption for electricity and central heat generation 'as 4"( EF"

Rene'ables acconted for abot 24 per cent of the electricity generated in 2012" ,ydropo'er5
bio&ass5 and 'ind energy 'ere the largest rene'able energy sorces"


3igure 2 +le#tri#ity generation in +uro.e in !% and !0! under different s#enarios:
Source: +urostat !%&$, +uro.ean (ommission !%0, +uro.ean (ommission !%&$, +#ofys analysis
.olids
/il
Natural 'as
Nuclear
#ene%a1le ener'y
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2012 2030 3 4&5 8urrent 2030 E5
)rame%or9
Ener'y
independence
2030 6ener'y
e))iciency only7
Ener'y
independence 2030
6ener'y e))iciency
and rene%a1le
ener'y7
Electricity generation in Europe [E!year"

#3I4E1)20( 1!
In the A;U scenario5 total electricity generation is e7pected to gro'5 as is the share of rene'able
energy 8to 42 per cent in 20!09" The gro'th in rene'able energy5 co&bined 'ith an increase in
efficiency of ther&al po'er generation5 reslts in a decrease of 2"* EF in the pri&ary energy inpt to
electricity plants5 despite the increase in electricity generation 8Eropean #o&&ission5 201!9"
1>

)"2 The i&pact of energy efficiency and rene'able energy
If the indstry and bildings sectors 'ere to i&ple&ent energy efficiency &easres that sa.e
electricity5
20
as described in the pre.ios chapters5 electricity generation cold be decreased by 1"4
EF in 20!0 co&pared to the :RIGE2 scenario" This 'old redce natral gas de&and by 1"> EF belo'
the :RIGE2 scenario or 1") EF belo' 2012"
21


If rene'able energy gro'th &aintains the trend of 2000/20105
22
electricity generated by rene'ables
'old gro' fro& )"* EF 81))0 TWh9 to *"( EF 81(>0 TWh9" This increase in rene'able electricity
'old redce natral gas de&and by another 1") EF"


1>
In energy statistics5 non/ther&al rene'able energy generation 8for e7a&ple 'ind energy5 solar :L and hydropo'er9 ha.e a 100 per cent
efficiency"
20
=el sa.ings are acconted for in the respecti.e sectors5 in this sector 'e accont only for electricity and heat sa.ings
21
We ass&e that electricity sa.ings and a gro'th in rene'able energy are at the e7pense of fossil fels and not at the e7pense of nclear
po'er and rene'able energy generation" =rther&ore5 'e ass&e that the fossil fel &i7 re&ains the sa&e
22
=or a discssion on the ass&ptions sed here for the gro'th and share of rene'able energy please see 2ection %"!

#3I4E1)20( 14

3igure 1 Primary energy in.ut for ele#tri#ity and #entral heat generation in +uro.e in !% and !0!
under different s#enarios:
Source: +urostat !%&$, +uro.ean (ommission !%0, +#ofys analysis


.olids
/il
Natural 'as
Nuclear
#ene%a1le ener'y
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2012 2030 3 4&5 Ener'y independence
2030 6ener'y e))iciency
only7
Ener'y independence
2030 6ener'y e))iciency
and rene%a1le ener'y7
Primary energy use for heat and electricity in Europe [E!year"

#3I4E1)20( 1)
* I&plications for the EU

&his section draws together the sector specific analses and discusses the implications at the E)
level. We show that the primar energ suppl can #e made significantl less dependent on natural
gas if the *ind of energ efficienc and renewa#le energ measures discussed in this paper are
implemented. 5urthermore, European greenhouse gas emissions can #e reduced well #elow the
currentl proposed -0 per cent target # 2030 and could reach levels that !without the need for
international car#on offsets", are in line with what might #e considered a 6fair7 target for the E). &his
has important implications for E) polic%ma*ing, allowing the E) to set a high #ar for emissions
reductions in the international climate negotiations.
*"1 Energy de&and and spply

In 20125 pri&ary energy de&and in Erope 'as &et principally by fossil fel sorces 8*) per cent9O
natral gas 'as the second largest fossil energy carrier after oil5 'ith a share of 2! per cent of total
energy spply" Rene'able energy sorces played a significant bt &ore &odest role5 pro.iding 11
per cent of the pri&ary energy de&and" The share of rene'ables see&s li$ely to contine its gro'th
into the ftre5 dri.en by the EU Rene'able Energy 2pply directi.e of 200> 8Eropean #o&&ission
200>95 'hich sets a 20 per cent rene'able energy target in 2020 and re6ires &e&ber states to
i&ple&ent &easres accordingly" In addition5 energy efficiency also see&s li$ely to play a roleO
energy intensity 'ill decrease by !0 per cent by 20!0 8relati.e to 20129 according to the :RIGE2
scenario 8Eropean #o&&ission 201!9"

Aased on or calclations for energy efficiency and rene'able energy in the indstry and bildings
sectors5 'e esti&ate that cost/effecti.e energy efficiency &easres in these t'o sectors cold redce
final energy de&and by an additional % EF co&pared to the :RIGE2 scenario5 'hich is at !1 EF in
20!0 8=igre (9" ;ss&ing that rene'able energy 'ill contine its historic gro'th rates and that
energy de&and redctions in the t'o sectors are shared o.er the fossil fel carriers as described in
2ections !"2 and 4"25 then dependence on natral gas 'old be redced" We esti&ate that the share
of natral gas in final energy de&and 'ill be redced fro& !1 per cent nder the :RIGE2 scenario to
24 per cent5 a fll % percentage points lo'er" This e7tra redction 'ill be achie.ed only if both energy
efficiency &easres and rene'able energy gains are i&ple&ented" In absolte n&bers this &eans
that the se of natral gas can be redced by 4 EF"

#3I4E1)20( 1*

3igure - 3inal energy demand $y energy #arrier in +uro.e in !% and !0! under different s#enarios:
Source: +urostat !%&, +uro.ean (ommission !%0, +#ofys analysis
Increased se of rene'able sorces in the energy spply sector can frther redce dependence on
fossil fels" The pri&ary inpt to central electricity and heat generation can be redced5 according to
or calclations5 by 4"2 EF do'n fro& 2*") EF nder the A;U" Together 'ith the increased se of
rene'able energy sorces this can redce the se of natral gas by !"4 EF do'n fro& )"2 EF nder
the A;U"

;ss&ing the potential for the sectors described abo.e is realiDed in fll5 the total pri&ary energy
de&and 8+rror> Referen#e sour#e not found:9 can be decreased by 1! per cent nder the SEnergy
independence 20!0 8energy efficiency only9 scenario and 14 per cent nder the SEnergy
independence 20!0 8energy efficiency and rene'able energy9 scenario co&pare to the :RIGE2
scenario" With respect to natral gas both5 energy efficiency and rene'able energy &easres5 lead to
a redction in the share of natral gas in pri&ary energy de&and fro& 2) per cent nder the A;U to
20 per cent nder Senergy efficiency only to 1* per cent nder Senergy efficiency and rene'ables" In
total5 energy efficiency and rene'able energy &easres as described abo.e are able to redce the
share of natral gas by > percentage points5 or %"4 EF5 co&pared to the A;U forecast5 do'n to 1* per
cent 8>"4 EF9 of total pri&ary energy spply in 20!0 8=igre 109"
.olids
/il
Natural 'as
0eat
#ene%a1le ener'y
Electricity
.a2in's 7 E
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2012 2030 3 4&5 Ener'y
independence 2030
6ener'y e))iciency
only7
Ener'y
independence 2030
6ener'y e))iciency
and rene%a1le
ener'y7
Final energy demand in Europe [E!year"

#3I4E1)20( 1%

3igure 5 Primary energy demand $y energy #arrier in +uro.e in !% and !0! under different
s#enarios:
Source: +urostat !%&, +uro.ean (ommission !%0, +uro.ean (ommission !%&$, +#ofys analysis
The 20!0 fra&e'or$ for cli&ate and energy policy 8Eropean #o&&ission 2014a95 according to the
i&pact assess&ent 8Eropean #o&&ission 2014b95 'ill be able to decrease pri&ary energy de&and
by 12 per cent belo' A;U" 2i&ltaneosly the share of natral gas in total pri&ary energy de&and
'ill be redced by only for percentage points co&pared to the A;U points to 21 per cent" ;s 'e
ha.e tried to sho'5 concerted efforts in energy efficiency and rene'ables 'ill ha.e a real effect on
natral gas dependencyO sch efforts can redce natral gas cons&ption by nine percentage points5
a redction that is &ore than doble the potential i&pact of the 20!0 fra&e'or$ for cli&ate and
energy policy sggests 8for percentage points9"

.olids
/il
Natural 'as
Nuclear
#ene%a1le ener'y
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2012 2030 3 4&5 8urrent 2030 E5
)rame%or9
Ener'y
independence
2030 6ener'y
e))iciency only7
Ener'y
independence
2030 6ener'y
e))iciency and
rene%a1le
ener'y7
Primary energy demand in Europe
3 in 2012 and 2030 in di))erent scenarios [E!year"

#3I4E1)20( 1(

3igure %! )eading e<.orters of natural gas to +uro.e, histori# and .ossi$le future .rodu#tion and net?
im.orts in %55!, !%0, and under different s#enarios for !0!:
Source: +urostat !%&, +uro.ean (ommission !%0, +uro.ean (ommission !%&$, +#ofys analysis
0


*"2 +,+ e&issions
Energy/related +,+ e&issions can be ct by )! per cent co&pared to 1>>05
24
nine percentage points
belo' the target of the 20!0 fra&e'or$ for cli&ate and energy policy 8Eropean #o&&ission 2014a95
if the energy efficiency and rene'able energy &easres otlined here are i&ple&ented" In 201!5
energy/related +,+ e&issions 'ere already 14 per cent lo'er than in 1>>0O they 'ill be redced to
!1 per cent lo'er than 1>>0 le.els nder the :RIGE2 scenario and cold be redced frther to 42 per
cent belo' 1>>0 le.els if the proposed 20!0 =ra&e'or$ for #li&ate and Energy :olicies is
i&ple&ented" -r calclations sho' that energy efficiency &easres alone cold redce e&issions by
4* per cent co&pared to 1>>0 le.els" :otential energy efficiency &easres in the transport sector
ha.e not been inclded in or calclations"

2!
1ote the bar ?E7porters to Erope in 2012? sho's the absolte i&port to Erope5 the bars labelled as net i&port sho' the absolte
i&port/e7ports
24
Energy related e&ission 'ere calclated based on the pri&ary energy de&and calclations as presented in +rror> Referen#e sour#e not
found: and sing e&ission factors fro& the I:##
#ussia$ 4
Nor%ay$ 4
&l'eria$ 2
(atar$ 1
Not speci)ied$ 3
Net import
,roduction
,rimary ener'y
demand$ 12*3
16*4
16*7
12*5
11*9
9*4
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
E+porters to
Europe in
2012
1990 2012 2030 3 4&5 8urrent 2030
E5 )rame%or9
Ener'y
independence
2030 6ener'y
e))iciency
only7
Ener'y
independence
2030 6ener'y
e))iciency and
rene%a1le
ener'y7
Europe's natural gas import, consumption and production [E!year"

#3I4E1)20( 1>


3igure %% +nergy related emissions $y energy #arrier in +uro.e in !% and !0! under different
s#enarios:
Source: +urostat !%&a, +uro.ean (ommission !%&$, +#ofys analysis

Total +,+ e&issions5 inclding land se5 land/se change and forestry 83U3U#=95 cold be redced to
4> per cent belo' 1>>0 le.els according to or calclations" The crrent 20!0 =ra&e'or$ for #li&ate
and Energy :olicies ass&es that little or no effort 'ill be nderta$en to redce e&issions fro& non/
energy sorces"
2)
While non/energy e&issions ha.e &ore li&ited potential than energy/related
e&issions5 e&issions fro& agricltre5 as 'ell as 3U3U#= e&issions5 ha.e stabilised or e.en
decreased slightly in past years 8EE; 20149" =rther&ore5 as already &entioned5 or calclations do
not ta$e accont of possible e&ission redctions in the transport sector" ,ence5 the potential e7ists
to redce e&issions beyond 4> per cent belo' 1>>0 le.els"

; 4> per cent redction belo' 1>>0 e&ission le.els is argably in line 'ith 'hat &ight be considered
a ?fair@ contribtion by the EU to'ards the global effort to li&it global 'ar&ing to 2T# abo.e
preindstrial le.els" In an earlier stdy 8Ecofys 201!b95 'e sho'ed that the range of effort sharing
approaches reslts in an a.erage e&ission redction target of 4> per cent belo' 1>>0" +i.en that the

2)
;ccording to or o'n calclations5 the 40M is based on a calclation that ass&es that non/energy e&issions 'ill increase nder the
energy and cli&ate pac$age"
.olids
/il
Natural 'as
#eductions 1elo% 1990$
14%
31%
42%
46%
53%
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
2012 2030 3 4&5 8urrent 2030 E5
)rame%or9
Ener'y
independence
2030 6ener'y
e))iciency only7
Ener'y
independence
2030 6ener'y
e))iciency and
rene%a1le
ener'y7
Energy related emissions in Europe [:t8/2year"

#3I4E1)20( 20
stdy presented here ses only cost/effecti.e energy efficiency i&pro.e&ent and realistic rene'able
energy gro'th5 it 'old be in the EUs interest to ta$e fll ad.antage of this sitation and reiterate its
position as role &odel in the international cli&ate negotiations by ptting for'ard a &ore a&bitios
do&estic e&ission redction target than that proposed" -r analysis sho's that the EU cold ta$e
the lead in ptting for'ard an ?intended nationally deter&ined contribtion SI14#@ that represents a
fair contribtion to a ne' international cli&ate agree&ent"

3igure % Total emissions @in#luding land use, land?use #hange and forestryA in +uro.e in !% and
!0! under different s#enarios:
Source: +urostat !%&a, ++B !%&, +uro.ean (ommission !%&$, +#ofys analysis



#eductions 1elo% 1990$
21%
32%
40%
43%
49%
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
2012 2030 3 4&5 8urrent 2030 E5
)rame%or9
Ener'y
independence
2030 6ener'y
e))iciency only7
Ener'y
independence
2030 6ener'y
e))iciency and
rene%a1le ener'y7
;otal c<ec9 ;otal non3ener'y emissions
otal emissions in the E![:t8/2year"

#3I4E1)20( 21
% 1otes on &ethodology
%"1 -.er.ie' of scenarios
Ta$le %: "vervie4 of s#enarios used in this re.ort
=#enario
Time
horiCon
Name as
used in te<t
Name as
used in
gra.hs
Des#ri.tion
201! :RIGE2 baseline
scenario 8Eropean
#o&&ission5 201!9
20!0
:RIGE2
scenario
20!0/A;U
The5 forecast de.elop&ents based
on crrent econo&ic and
de&ographic trends and e7isting
policies"
20!0 fra&e'or$ for
cli&ate and energy
policies 8Eropean
#o&&ission 2014a and
2014b9
20!0
20!0
fra&e'or$
for cli&ate
and energy
policies
#rrent 20!0
EU
=ra&e'or$
This year5 the Eropean
#o&&ission proposed an energy
and cli&ate pac$age that
co&prised an energy efficiency
target of !0 per cent and a
rene'able energy target of 2% per
cent" The first target &eans a !0
per cent sa.ings 'ith respect to
the 200% :RIGE2 baseline scenario
8Eropean #o&&ission 200%95 the
second target refers to a share of
2% per cent in Eropes gross final
energy cons&ption"
Energy efficiency
scenario 8o'n
calclations9
20!0
Energy
independence
20!0 8energy
efficiency
only9
Energy
independence
20!0 8energy
efficiency
only9
This incldes the effects of cost/
effecti.e energy sa.ings that go
beyond the A;U scenario" It is
based on potential stdies of
=ranhofer I2I 8AoQ&ann et al"5
20129 and Ecofys 8Ecofys5 20149"
Energy efficiency and
rene'able energy
scenario 8o'n
calclations9
20!0
Energy
independence
20!0 8energy
efficiency and
rene'able
energy9
Energy
independence
20!0 8energy
efficiency and
rene'able
energy9
This incldes the effect of the EE
stdy as 'ell as an increased
i&ple&entation rate of rene'able
energy" The ass&ed rates of
increase are e6al to the gro'th
rates in rene'able heat and
rene'able electricity achie.ed in
the period 2000/2010 82ee also
2ection %"!9"

#3I4E1)20( 22



"
%"2 What is cost/effecti.e0
In this stdy 'e consider cost/effecti.e potential as defined by =ranhofer I2I 8AoQ&ann et al"5
20129" In the stdy by AoQ&ann et al" 8201295 abot )0 per cent of the potential in the bilding
sector and t'o thirds of the potential in the indstry sector are considered cost/effecti.e at high
discont rates 8( per cent for bildings5 !0 per cent for indstry95 'hile the rest of the in.est&ents
are cost/effecti.e o.er the lifeti&e of &easres and at higher fel prices than sed in the :RIGE2
scenario 8AoQ&ann et al"5 20129" If 'e aggregate all &easres 8as done for this stdy95 the potential
is financially beneficial5 bt policy effort is needed to sti&late so&e of the indi.idal &easres and
o.erco&e barriers"

=rther&ore AoQ&annn et al" 820129 list frther technical energy efficiency potential that goes
beyond 'hat is considered here" These additional &easres are not cost/effecti.e5 e.en at higher fel
prices" ,o'e.er5 the &onetary sa.ings fro& the cost/effecti.e &easres cold &ore than co.er the
additional costs fro& the &ore e7pensi.e &easres"

%"! Rene'able energy gro'th rates
In this stdy 'e loo$ at gro'th rates that 'ere achie.ed in Erope in the period 2000/2010 8'ithot
heat/p&ps9 and apply these gro'th rates bet'een 2012 and 20!0" These gro'th rates 'ere:
!") per cent per year for heating 8in bildings and indstry9
4"> per cent per year for electricity 8otpt9

=or rene'ables in electricity generation the abo.e &entioned gro'th rates reslt in a )( per cent
share of rene'ables by 20!05 'hich is nearly nine percentage points higher than pro<ections nder
the 20!0 fra&e'or$ for cli&ate and energy policies 8Eropean #o&&ission 2014a and 2014b9" ;s
Table 2 sho's5 these gro'th rates are in line 'ith gro'th rates otlined in the IE; World Energy
-tloo$ 2012 in the 4)0 pp& scenario 8IE; 20129 as 'ell as the Ecofys Energy report scenario for
Erope 8a deter&ination of EU2% data fro& The Energy Report 8TER9 / Ecofys 201!a95 bt lo'er than
gro'th rates in5 for e7a&ple5 the +reenpeace Energy IrKe.oltion scenario 8+reenpeace 20129" These
scenarios ai& for high shares of rene'ables in total pri&ary energy by 20)0 8U100 per cent
according to the TER EU2% reslt5 and )0/(0 per cent according to the Energy IRKe.oltion scenario95
and ass&e no se of carbon captre and storage 8##29" ; &a<or difference bet'een these scenarios
is that the Energy IRKe.oltion scenario ass&es a co&plete phase/ot of nclear energy by 2040"

#3I4E1)20( 2!
Ta$le : =hare of rene4a$le energy in #entral ele#tri#ity generation a##ording to different s#enarios
=#enario
R+ share in ele#tri#ity in !0!
@DA
IE; World Energy -tloo$ 20125 4)0 pp& scenario 8IE; 20129 )% 820!)9
Ecofys Energy report scenario for Erope 8Ecofys 201!9 *)
+reenpeace Energy IrKe.oltion scenario 8+reenpeace 20129 %1
20!0 fra&e'or$ for cli&ate and energy policies 8Eropean
#o&&ission 2014a and 2014b9
4>"!
Energy efficiency and rene'able energy scenario 8o'n calclations9 ,-

%"4 1atral gas de.elop&ent in the energy spply sector
This stdy ass&es that5 as the share of rene'ables in electricity generation increases5 the decrease
in de&and for natral gas is proportional to decreases in de&and for other fossil fels" The reslting
share of natral gas in electricity generation by 20!05 according to this report5 is > per cent5 'hich is
in line 'ith calclations of the World Energy -tloo$ 8WE-9 4)0pp& scenario5 as sho'n in Table !"
The Energy IRKe.oltion scenario calclates a &ch higher share for natral gas in 20!05 since the
share of nclear energy in this scenario is redced nearly to Dero by 20!05 'hilst in the WE- scenario
the share of nclear energy contines to increase slightly"

Ta$le 0: =hare of natural gas in ele#tri#ity generation a##ording to different s#enarios
=#enario
Natural gas share in ele#tri#ity in !0!
@DA
IE; World Energy -tloo$ 2012 4)0 pp& scenario 8IE;
201!9
( 820!)9
+reenpeace Energy IrKe.oltion scenario 8+reenpeace
20129
2%
This re.ort 5

Recent historical data a.ailable fro& +er&any spport the ass&ptions &ade abot the potential for
natral gas de&and redctions alongside increasing shares of rene'ables" Whilst the share of
rene'ables increased in +er&any bet'een 2010 and 201! fro& 1* per cent to 24 per cent5 the share
of natral gas decreased fro& 14 per cent to 11 per cent5 and the share of coal increased fro& 42 per
cent to 4) per cent 8Ecofys 2014c9"
%") 2cope
Regional s#o.e: When referring to Erope5 'e refer to the EU2( contries"
Primary energy demand: pri&ary energy de&and 8or gross inland cons&ption9 incldes non/
energy se" ,o'e.er5 final energy demand does not inclde non/energy cons&ption"


#3I4E1)20( 24


#3I4E1)20( 2)
References
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http:NN'''"isi"franhofer"deNisi/
';ssetsNdocsNeNdeNpbli$ationenNAegleitberichtJ#ontribtion/to/cli&ate/protectionJfinal"pdf
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the/e"pdf
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Ecofys 82014a9" 4eep reno.ation of bildings: ;n effecti.e 'ay to decrease Erope s energy i&port
dependency"
Ecofys 82014b9" Increasing the EUs Energy Independence V Technical Report" #ologne5 +er&any:
Ecofys"
Ecofys 82014c9" ErfWllt 4etschland die ErfWllt 4etschland die E.alierng i& Rah&en des
;$tionsprogra&&s" #ologne5 +er&any: Ecofys" Retrie.ed fro&
http:NN'''"ecofys"co&NfilesNfilesNecofys/2014/erfellt/detschland/die/treibhasgas/
e&issionsDiele/2020"pdf
Erogas" 8201!9" 2tatistical report 201!" Arssels5 Aelgi&: Erogas" Retrie.ed fro&
http:NN'''"erogas"orgNploadsN&ediaNErogasJ2tatisticalJReportJ201!"pdf
Eropean En.iron&ent ;gency" 820149" EE; greenhose gas / data .ie'er" #openhagen5 4en&ar$:
Eropean En.iron&ental ;gency" Retrie.ed fro& http:NN'''"eea"eropa"eNdata/and/
&apsNdataNdata/.ie'ersNgreenhose/gases/.ie'er
Eropean #o&&ission 8200%9" Trends to 20!0 / pdate 200%" Arssels"
Eropean #o&&ission 8200>9" 4IRE#TILE 200>N2(NE# -= T,E EUR-:E;1 :;R3I;GE1T ;14 -= T,E
#-U1#I3 of 2! ;pril 200> on the pro&otion of the se of energy fro& rene'able sorces and
a&ending and sbse6ently repealing 4irecti.es 2001N%%NE# and 200!N!0NE#" Retrie.ed
fro& http:NNer/le7"eropa"eNlegal/contentNE1NTXTN:4=N0riY#E3EX:!200>3002(Rfro&YE1
Eropean #o&&ission" 820109" 4IRE#TILE 2010N!1NEU -= T,E EUR-:E;1 :;R3I;GE1T ;14 -= T,E
#-U1#I3 or 1> Gay 2010 on the energy perfor&ance of bildings 8recast9" Retrie.ed fro&
http:NNer/le7"eropa"eN3e7Uri2er.N3e7Uri2er."do0riY-F:3:2010:1)!:001!:00!):E1::4=
Eropean #o&&ission 8201!9" EU Energy5 Transport and +,+ E&issions Trends to 20)0 C Reference
scenario 201!" Arssels"
Eropean #o&&ission 82014a9" 20!0 fra&e'or$ for cli&ate and energy policies" Retrie.ed -ctober
1%5 20145 fro& http:NNec"eropa"eNcli&aNpoliciesN20!0Ninde7Jen"ht&

#3I4E1)20( 2*
Eropean #o&&ission 82014b9" I&pact ;ssess&ent / Energy Efficiency and its contribtion to energy
secrity and the 20!0 =ra&e'or$ for cli&ate and energy policy / #o&&nication fro& the
#o&&ission to the Eropean :arlia&ent and the #oncil" Arssels"
Eropean #o&&ission" 82014c9" #-GGU1I#;TI-1 =R-G T,E #-GGI22I-1 T- T,E EUR-:E;1
:;R3I;GE1T ;14 T,E #-U1#I3 Eropean Energy 2ecrity 2trategy Z2W4820149 !!0 final["
Arssels5 Aelgi&" Retrie.ed fro&
http:NNec"eropa"eNenergyNdocN20140)2(JenergyJsecrityJco&&nication"pdf
Erostat 82014a9" I&ports 8by contry of origin9 / gas / annal data InrgJ124aK 3ast pdate: 14/0)/
2014" Retrie.ed fro& http:NNepp"erostat"ec"eropa"eNportalNpageNportalNerostatNho&eN
Erostat 82014b9" 2pply5 transfor&ation5 cons&ption / all prodcts / annal data InrgJ100aK 3ast
pdate: !0/0%/2014" Retrie.ed fro&
http:NNepp"erostat"ec"eropa"eNportalNpageNportalNerostatNho&eN
+reenpeace" 820129" energy IrKe.oltion / ; sstainable 'orld energy otloo$" Retrie.ed fro&
http:NN'''"greenpeace"orgNinternationalN+lobalNinternationalNpblicationsNcli&ateN2012NEner
gy Re.oltion 2012NER2012"pdf
,e$$enberg5 Gichiel O Lerdon$5 G" 820149" 1ationale Energie.er$enning" Retrie.ed fro&
http:NN'''"pbl"nlNNsitesNdefaltNfilesNc&sNpblicatiesNpbl/2014/nationale/energie.er$enning/
2014/tabellenbi<lage"pdf
International Energy ;gency 8IE;9" 820129" World Energy -tloo$" :aris5 =rance: IE;"
Hersting5 FanO 4scha5 Lic$iO 2chleich5 Foachi&O Hera&idas5 H" 8forthco&ing9" The i&pact of shale
gas on the costs of cli&ate policy" Harl: =ederal En.iron&ent ;gency +er&any 8UA;9"
Retrie.ed fro& n"a"
:2E ,ealthy Energy" 820149" 2rface and grond'ater conta&ination associated 'ith &odern natral
gas de.elop&ent / :eer/re.ie'ed literatre5 2011/201!" Retrie.ed fro&
http:NN'''"psehealthyenergy"orgNdataN2cienceJ2&&aryJWater#onta&ination2tdiesJ7/
1"pdf


#3I4E1)20( 2%













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$%&'() *etherlan+ ,!-!
Kanaalweg 15G
3526 KL Utrecht
./ +31 (0) 30 662-3300
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$/ info@ecofy!co"
0/ www!ecofy!co"