ARE WE COUNTING THE PREFERENTIAL

VOTES? A POSSIBLE SCENARIO ON SRI

LANKAS PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

By Dr. S. I. Keethaponcalan
OCTOBER 21, 2014 DR. S. I. KEETHAPONCALAN
In a recent article on Sri Lankas forthcoming presidential election, this author has
argued that the incumbent presidents quest for a third term will not be a cake-walk and
the race will be tight. The primary reason for this argument is the fact that the president
does not have adequate support among the minority communities. In the absence of
meaningful minority backing he needs about 65 percent of the Sinhala votes, which
under the present condition, will not be an easy task. Therefore, like it or not, he needs to
go on a relentless offensive for the entire Sinhala-Buddhist vote, using most probably
nationalism as the primary weapon.
The unfolding political scene in Colombo indicates that the president may face problems
even within the Sinhala-Buddhist community, making the forthcoming presidential
election a tougher race. The issue emanates from the recent politics of Jathika Hela
Urumaya (JHU), hitherto an ardent supporter of President Mahinda Rajapaksa. The JHU
came into force with the aim of creating a dharma rajya in Sri Lanka and is one of the first
political entities to join the broad coalition built by the president in 2005. The JHU, a
political party, is founded strongly on Buddhist ethos and philosophies and managed to
stay loyal to the president until very recently.
Last week, charging that too much political power is concentrated on one man, i.e the

president, Venerable Athureliye Rathana Thera, one of the powerful leaders of the JHU,
demanded that the constitution be changed adopting the parliamentary system of
governance with some modifications. This may be a response to the growing popularity
of the slogan of abolishing the executive presidential system in Sri Lanka among the
Colombo elite. The party also has other demand such as limiting the cabinet of ministers
to a minimum and so on. What is interesting to note is that the demands sound like a
precondition for the partys support for Mahinda Rajapaksa in the forthcoming
presidential election.
According to a leading Sri Lankan weekly, Thera has declared that the constitutional
amendment should be passed before the presidential election and has warned that we
will have to politically defeat him (President Rajapaksa) if the changes are not done. The
tone of Theras message makes one wonder whether the decision to leave the
government is already made and the present slogan of constitutional change has been
taken up for political expediency. The party is also talking about a third, common
candidate. One, however, has to wait and see if the party will leave the government on
this issue. The government however is not in the mood to alter the constitution to
accommodate the reformists. If both parties fail to come to a compromising and face
saving-formula, the JHU may be forced not to support the government in the
presidential election. Absence of the JHU support will be a serious political blow to the
government, because it has the potential to reduce Sinhala-Buddhist vote. The JHUs
vote bank does not look substantial at this point in time, but it is symbolically very
important to preserve the outlook of the government.
Another new issue that could also dilute the government vote is the controversy over
the presidents eligibility to contest for the third term. Some constitutional and legal
scholars are of the view that the president is ineligible to contest again, which will not
have a practical impact because the presidents candidacy in the forthcoming election is
already decided regardless of the legal implications of the argument. The government
will not consider this a major issue because regime supporters have already rejected the
notion. But the danger is that the neutrals in this election could buy into this argument
and may decide not to vote for the sitting president. This could take a tiny bit of SinhalaBuddhist vote from the government.
In essence, it is possible that the government may not be able to secure an overwhelming
endorsement from the Sinhala-Buddhist constituency. If this happens, Sri Lanka may be
forced to count the preferential votes. According to the constitution, a candidate, in

order to win, needs to receive more than one-half of the valid votes cast, which is 50
percent plus one vote; not 50.1 percent or 51 percent votes. One of the possible
scenarios is that no candidate receives the required 50 percent of the votes cast if an
election is held in January next year. This could happen if President Rajapaksa fails to
secure an overwhelming endorsement from the Sinhala-Buddhist voters and the UNP
fails to build a broad coalition, or if there are too many candidates to split the votes.
What happens then? Sri Lankan voters are allowed to indicate their second and third
preferences when they vote in a presidential election. If no candidate receives more than
one half of the votes cast, according to the constitution, the preferential votes need to be
counted. This process involves three steps. First, all candidates except the two who
received the most number of votes will be eliminated from the competition. Given the
presidential election history in Sri Lanka, it is clear that there will be more than two
candidates. Second, the second preferential votes of the eliminated candidates, if cast in
favor of one of the remaining two candidates, will be added to their account. Third, the
third preferential votes of the eliminated candidates, if cast in favor of one of the two
remaining candidates, will be added to their account. Then, the one who receives the
majority of the votes will be declared the winner.
Sri Lanka has never counted the preferential votes as there was always a clear winner,
even in some of the closest contests. For example, Ranasinghe Premadasa in 1988,
President Chandrika Kumaratunga in 1999, and Mahinda Rajapaksa in 2005 received
only 50.43, 51.12, and 50.29 percent of the votes, respectively. Therefore, the public has
no knowledge of the numbers and patterns of preferential votes. Perhaps this time
around it will be different and Sri Lankans may be counting the preferential votes for the
first time. The major contenders, therefore, will need to campaign not only for the votes
but also for the preferential votes of the minor candidates. Alliance building among
major and minor candidates could continue even after the candidate names are officially
declared by the Department of Elections.
(Dr. S. I. Keethaponcalan is Chair of the Conflict Resolution Department,
Salisbury University, Maryland. Email: skeetha@yahoo.com).
Dr. S. I. Keethaponcalan

Dr. S. I. Keethaponcalan is Chair of the Conflict Resolution Department,

Salisbury University, Maryland. Email: skeetha@yahoo.com

Posted by Thavam