Technology in Society 32 (2010) 342351

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Technology in Society
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/techsoc

From societal fragility to sustainable robustness: Some tentative

technology trajectories
Lindsay J. Robertson*
Professional Engineer (Mechanical), New Zealand

a b s t r a c t
Keywords:
Technology
Robust
Fragile
Dependence
Supply-chain
Capability
Vulnerability
Roadmap
Society
Collapse

Centralization of production has allowed great increases to efciency, and specialization

has allowed advances that would otherwise be almost impossible. But centralized
production leads to long supply lines, and specialization causes decreased accessibility of
alternatives; together these increase the consumers vulnerability to disruption of access to
essential goods and services. Assessing these vulnerabilities and making at least preliminary proposals for amelioration, is a topic of this paper. Initially, the functional needs of
individuals are reviewed and classied. The paper then reviews and attempts to quantify
the vulnerabilities associated with present approaches to meeting those needs. Having
identied both specic vulnerabilities, and common factors associated with vulnerability,
the paper then considers some general principles for increasing technological and social
robustness. With vulnerabilities and indicative principles for improved robustness identied, some coarse but illustrative technology trajectories are proposed.
The paper covers a broad scope in limited detail: it is presented in the hope that real
advance towards a more robust and decentralized sophistication can be encouraged.
2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction
1.1. Vulnerability described
1.1.1. General
There is an old adage that any city is three meals away
from anarchy. Some slight exaggeration may be detected,
but the plight of an urban apartment dweller is certainly
severe when suddenly deprived of cash-dispenser, supermarket, running water, sewage systems, power and
communications.
1.1.2. Centralization and specialization are associated with
vulnerability
A neighboring rural town expects a major earthquake in
the foreseeable future. At a public meeting to review disaster
preparations, residents initially expressed condence in
* Tel.: 64 21 240 6863.
E-mail address: lindsay@tech-vantage.com.
0160-791X/$ see front matter 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.techsoc.2010.10.012

their communications security noting that Internet,

landline, and cellular phones were available. Residents were
less condent when told that the communications for every
one of these, plus the point-of-sale terminals and the
Automatic Teller Machines were ALL carried via a single
ber-optic cable. They might also have noted that almost the
entire communications volume depended upon one operating system, one brand of router, TCP/IP protocols only,
a single DNS system, and one of only two undersea cables
connecting to the rest of the world. [1]. Predictions of the
collapse of nancial systems were made before the new
millennium, but the events starting with the American
mortgage issues in 2007 have reminded us of how centralized, interconnected and ubiquitous our nancial systems
are. Financial products designed (badly) in USA cause
business failures in Dunedin, and individual bankruptcies in
Cape Town. Citizens with few options for storing their
savings deposited them with reputable nancial institutions only to nd that their savings had vanished! Our
centralized systems for distributing goods is dependent on

L.J. Robertson / Technology in Society 32 (2010) 342351

transport fuel yet most countries have few if any sources of

crude oil, few ports capable of ofoading tankers, perhaps
only a single renery, storage of less than 90 days, and long
fuel distribution chains [2]. The very high market share of
one computer operating system and software bundle has
allowed relatively simple exchangeability of documents in
the short-term, but causes users to be locked in to facilities
that will inevitably be deemed obsolete: This creates
a signicant risk that information will be lost in the medium
term as these proprietary systems cease to be supported.
Electricity is the most ubiquitous energy carrier for
stationary applications; Centralized power generation has
minimized costs but at the expense of long distribution
paths, and power grids that require progressively more
stringent measures to remain stable.
We can remember that whenever a monoculture
thrives, there is increased risk of an explosion of those
who prey on it: The increased efciencies of production
that have allowed Homo sapiens to increase, have also
resulted in our increased dependence on a progressively
optimized but less diverse food sources, e.g. Rice, wheat,
corn, potato, sheep and cattle. We have already seen
evidence of threats (the Ug99 strain of the killer wheat
fungus, potato blight), and know of the potential for yet-toemerge insect, bacterial and viral threats. This principle is
not limited to our food sources: H. sapiens is one of the
largest monocultures, and direct threats to our species
include old diseases e.g. smallpox, plus emergent diseases
e.g., a mutated H5N1 inuenza virus and potentially
many other natural and unnatural pathogens.
1.1.3. Vulnerability widely recognized
Societal vulnerabilities are recognized quite widely
academic writers [3,4] have explored particular aspects,
novelists have based apocalyptic works upon them, and one
suspects that think-tanks have produced, but never published, analyses of national vulnerabilities. It is also reasonable to suggest that the rise of survivalist cults, back to
nature and self-sufciency movements, are each reections of a poorly-articulated awareness of societal fragility.
1.1.4. Vulnerability through lack of responsiveness
The centralized creation of consumables, and their
distribution, are generally only efcient when broadreaching polities of law and commerce were also stable:
That stability has almost intrinsically reduced the speed
of adaptation. A topical example may be seen in the
greenhouse gas reduction negotiations: Our production
systems promote global warming yet precisely because of
the lack of adaptability of these centralized systems,
proposals to reduce greenhouse gases become mired in
a morass of competing interests and arguments.
1.1.5. Social effects
The focus of this paper is on technical issues of societal
fragility caused by centralization, specialization and interconnectedness of supply chains: There are also, however,
important sociological issues that arise from the same
phenomena: Simplistic economic theory proposes that
competition will control the abuse of market power but
centralization and specialization are inherently trends

343

towards decreased real competition and one can readily

observe examples where centralized and specialized
services experience little real competition. Whenever
consumers are highly dependent on the availability of
particular goods and services, the suppliers acquire
considerable power to dictate prices, terms and conditions.
The tendency for large monocultures to encourage natural
predators has been mentioned already, and large concentrations of people and centralized infrastructure certainly
offer juicy targets for those intent on destruction. Tainter
[5] argued that the societies collapse when the costs
of maintaining the society exceed the marginal benets
to citizens: he envisioned that cost would be counted
in terms of taxation and bureaucratic overhead; but
distasteful invasions of privacy, constraints on freedom and
burdensome legislation to control the predators are also
signicant costs.
1.1.6. Gains and costs
It would, however, be naive to ignore the societal
advances that have been made possible by optimized,
specialized, and centralized capabilities: Life expectancy
has improved with better food production [6]; healthcare
has improved, infant mortality has decreased, and our
lives have been enriched by access to knowledge, culture
and communication. Few would willingly sacrice these,
despite a wish for greater robustness. Technical advances
have also included the development of acceptable
methods of restraining population growth (thus avoiding
Malthus predictions [7]) and possible methods of
reducing further environmental damage: these should not
be under-valued.
1.2. Dening an issue
Stated simply, while centralization and specialization
have allowed goods and services to be produced with
unprecedented efciency, the precise corollary has been
vulnerability to disruption of the central creation and
distribution facilities, and to the facilities for the recentralization of wealth. The best of both worlds is
a theme of this paper.
1.3. Lessons from history
Tainter, Diamond [8] et al. do not speak of the failure
of individuals to survive, or the failure of species to
survive. Both of these authors analyze historical examples of the Collapse of SOCIETY, i.e., the process
by which individuals existence changes from that of
a specialized contributor within an interconnected and
specialized societal structure, to a self-dependent existence at some lower state of sophistication. Tainter has
asserted that societies become prone to collapse when
the incremental costs of maintenance outweigh the
benets to the individual. Diamond basically asserts that
societies collapse when natural resources are mismanaged. These authors do essay denitions of society
and to a lesser degree denitions of collapse but the
lack of granularity in the terminology masks important
issues.

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L.J. Robertson / Technology in Society 32 (2010) 342351

1.4. Dene the goal

When authors describe a more-or-less-signicant event
triggering a collapse of society, they articulate an example
of what chaos-theorists identify as a move from one
attractor to another [9].
Both Tainter and Diamond imply that two attractors
represent the only stable states for society; i.e., a highly
centralized, hierarchically-controlled nation/state, and
a primitive state in which small groups exist at a survival/
subsistence level.
One could posit many societal states (nomadic groups
with clan bonds, or ideologically homogenous groups),
and examples of some exist (Roma) but most such
struggle to survive, and remain vulnerable. This paper
proposes that there could be a stable form of society that
is decentralized, robust, and advanced or sophisticated
and that sometime considerably before collapse it will
become equally desirable to choose such a decentralized
existence with minimal loss of utility. The general technical underpinnings of such a robust and decentralized
sophistication, are the theme for this paper. The characteristics of such a decentralized society would probably
include;
a) Socially-optimum sized groups existing with high
levels of independence
b) Groups capable of meeting sophisticated needs from
internal resources
c) Groups able to generate further advance, by forming adhoc task-oriented groupings (without creating the
vulnerabilities of permanent hierarchical structures)
1.4.1. Technical goal
Building on a proposed classication of the needs and
vulnerabilities of society, a process of functional specication can suggest the generic technological capabilities that
would contribute most to the decrease of present vulnerabilities while continuing to meet functional needs.

identied. A functional denition of needs will also allow

us to assess the value of alternative approaches to meeting
real needs.
2.2. Indices of vulnerability
As with terms like collapse, vulnerability is an
imprecise term: By dening a Vulnerability Index (VI) and
evaluating it for current approaches to fulllment of
various needs, it will be possible both to rank the signicance of various vulnerabilities and to determine, at least to
a low level of precision, whether a proposed change
decreases or increases vulnerability. Even if the numerical
values of such a Vulnerability Index have very low
precision, they will be useful if the index is dimensionless
and if the algebraic relationship of the components is
basically correct.
2.3. Principles of robustness
Having established an index by which specic vulnerabilities can be assessed, this paper will use the format and
the components of that index to suggest principles for
improving robustness.
2.4. Technology trajectories
When needs have been dened functionally, and the
components of current vulnerabilities have been described,
then technological solution-spaces for improved robustness can be considered. Each functional specication for
a technological capability can then be characterized
according to its present developmental status, and its
developmental requirements. Collectively, these assessments outline a trajectory or path (but not a roadmap),
towards improved robustness.
3. Results
3.1. Establish a hierarchy of needs

1.4.2. Non-technical goals

Dunbars [10] number (about 150) is frequently quoted
as the sociologically ideal community size. The disparity
between this number and the size of present city-states
makes it hardly surprising that sociological problems as
well as the technical vulnerabilities are seen. Should it
become technically possible to adequately meet advanced
needs, within smaller people-groupings, then a social as
well as a material advance is possible.
2. Methods
2.1. Codication and ranking of needs
If personal/societal needs are dened strictly within
the current norms, then an assessment of vulnerabilities is
likely to be supercial, and only a very constrained set of
alternatives is likely to present. If, however, needs can be
dened in rather more functional terms, then it is more
likely that vulnerabilities can be identied and quantied,
and it is also more likely that alternative solutions can be

Vulnerability is a very imprecise term: and begs

questions of what is at risk, and what is the signicance
of the potential deprival? To codify and quantify human
and societal vulnerability, it is useful rst to list, then to
categorize and rank, our individual and societal needs. The
listing will help to dene what is at risk, and the categorization will help to assess the signicance of the at risk
items. A commonly-referenced hierarchy of human needs is
that proposed by Maslow [11]. Briey, the need-levels
identied by Maslow are 1) Physiological (homeostasis).
2) Safety (personal, nancial etc predictability and security). 3) Love and belonging (friendship, intimacy, family). 4)
Esteem/belongingness (of peers). 5) Need to know and
understand (curiosity, exploration). 6) Aesthetic needs
(beauty). 7) Self-actualization (to reach ones potential) and
8) Transcendence (aspiration to that beyond oneself).
Maslows list has a curious granularity: Maslows rst
need is very broad, and must be subdivided for the
purposes of this paper. Maslow gave the title of safety
to his second need; the description suggests that titles

L.J. Robertson / Technology in Society 32 (2010) 342351

such as predictability or orderliness might have been

better, and would certainly have avoided confusion with
the concept of protection from personal danger. Safety,
in the sense of avoidance of personal danger is clearly
a need that takes precedence over the need for food,
water and shelter a person will survive many days
without the latter, but danger must be avoided immediately. Items 3 to 8 of Maslows list are personal (though
their realization has technological implications), and
represent quite ne subdivisions. Nevertheless, Maslows
hierarchy can be adapted to develop a list of personal/
societal needs that can then be grouped into categories
which are somewhat more technologically oriented.
Table 1 shows the proposed adaptation, listing both
functional needs and groupings that represent broadly
dened levels of societal sophistication.

3.2. Analysis of vulnerability

3.2.1. Types and signicance of vulnerabilities
Two particular types of vulnerability
distinguished:

can

be

345

a) Cascading failures caused by sensitive dependence on

initial conditions. ..For the lack of a nail the horse was
lost, for lack of a horse the battle was lost.., or .one
ap of a seagulls wings could change the course of
weather forever.. Some vulnerabilities do arise from
single causes: the introduction of cane-toads to
Australia, the possibility of an oil-renery explosion on
an island state dependent on only one such facility, or
the publication of a simple crack to the encryption
system used for all internet banking transactions. Chaos
theory uses the terminology extreme sensitivity to
initial conditions to describe this category.
b) Multi-level, common-mode failures. This type of vulnerability arises where a highly interconnected network/
system of nodes (all having different functions) each
depend on a common resource (perhaps energy, or
personnel). In such a system, if the common resource is
affected (e.g., plague strikes personnel at all levels of
distribution chain), the whole system may collapse.
High vulnerability levels can be expected to be linked to
capabilities that affect ALL levels of multi-stage creation

Table 1
A hierarchy of needs.
Title, and closest
correspondence to
Maslows need-level

Description of need

Timeframe to
consequences,
if need unmet

Components of need

Safety

Avoid immediate death

or permanent injury

Secondsdays

Capacity to survive major accident or

natural disaster
Protection from accidental or purposeful injury

Physiological
(Maslow-1)

Physiological needs
for continuation of life

Daysmonths

Water
Nutrition
Shelter
Waste disposal
Transport fuel

Generational continuity
(Maslow-2 & 3)

Generational continuity of life

Monthsyears

Maintain ability to provide for physiological needs

Ability to safely bear and raise children
Develop and apply basic healthcare
Financial services
Record and access basic information

Familial cohesion and stability

Basic information storage
Basic communication

Communicate basic information to others

Communal
(Maslow 4,5&6)

Avoid collective health failures

Years

Important information and

capabilities must be retained
across generations.
Long-term maintenance of
community facilities

Avoidance or diseases (plagues) that would

severe limit life or capability
Diagnosis of medical conditions (applied
to people, and also to essential animal
and plant crops)
Information must be retained (i.e., recorded)
in a means that can be found, analyzed,
and communicated to others, across generations.
Need to acquire basic materials to support
individual needs and infrastructure/equipment repair
Capacity for repair of basic equipment.

Developmental
(Maslow-7,8)

To know, to understand,
and explore;
To nd self-fulllment, to
realize ones potential;

Years to few-decades

Capacity to measure, sense and explore the

extra-communal world and to
acquire/manufacture the sensors
Capability to form structured and functional
(ad-hoc) collaborations.
Capability to marshal (physical and intellectual)
resources to allow goals that are beyond the
resources of the individual sociological grouping.

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L.J. Robertson / Technology in Society 32 (2010) 342351

and delivery systems e.g., personal (collective health,

food, air, water, security) needs and productivity needs
(nance, energy). Other needs such as raw materials,
knowledge, and enabling-equipment are commonly
specic to particular steps.
3.2.2. A metric for vulnerability
It has already been noted that vulnerability is
a loosely-dened term, and qualiers such as highly
contribute little additional precision. A Vulnerability
Index offers one approach to quantication, and
contributes to more precise denition both by the algebraic terms and the algebraic construction used. If the
algebraic form of a Vulnerability Index encourages a wide
numerical spread when evaluated, and if the form generates a dimensionless evaluation, then the index is more
likely to be useful.
The following denition is proposed for a signed
Vulnerability index (VI):

VINeed SF  Ta  Td=Tc
Where: SF is the scale factor, the number of persons
affected by the failure of a single means for supplying
a current need; Ta is the time for consumer to access
a functional alternative; Td is the time-to-depletion for the
accessible reserve, OR the Mean Time Before Failure
(MTBF) of local capacity; Tc is the time from complete loss
of functionality, to dened consequence.
3.2.2.1. VI terms and parameters. For an adequate result, the
need parameter should be dened functionally; otherwise the assessment of the time required to source an
alternative will not identify a useful value. The terms in the
proposed VI are certainly not precise and further work is
planned to clarify them, however for the purposes of this
paper, the terms are described as follows:
3.2.2.2. Scale factor. This is a crude metric of the scale of the
deprivation caused by a single event and hence it is also
a crude measure of the degree of centralization of the
service that is at risk.
3.2.2.3. Access to functional alternatives. If a functionally
equivalent, alternative and independent means of
supplying a specic need is accessible, the effect will be to
decrease the VI. The VI as proposed takes no account of the
degree to which the need is met; hence access to a slower
or poorer-quality alternative (a graceful retreat path) still
allows the signed index to decrease.
3.2.2.4. Reserve depletion time, or MTBF. Where a natural
resource becomes exhausted, the time to nd alternative is
very large: for such cases the index will become high
(aligning with Diamonds conclusions). For needs that
involve an effectively inexhaustible resource, then the VI is
low. If the need is a service that is dependent on some
technological component, then increased MTBF lowers the
VI. In a case where a resource is consumable and has negligible storage potential (e.g. mains electricity or the contents
of a cars petrol tank), then the VI will generally be large.

3.2.2.5. Time-to-consequence. If the time to signicant

consequence is small, a large VI is evaluated.
3.2.3. Description of functional needs, and current vulnerabilities
With functional denitions of needs (categorized into
hierarchical levels) and at least a crude metric for vulnerability, it is now possible to review the current methods by
which these needs are met, and the associated vulnerabilities.
3.2.3.1. Safety. The current solution to avoiding death due to
accident or assault emphasizes risk avoidance or risk deterrence. Should these approaches fail, the time elapsing before
serious consequences is very short (seconds or minutes). A
highly centralized society is unable to provide a response to an
individual safety need (injury/assault) in a timeframe less
than a large fraction of an hour: The vulnerability for an
individual is high, but the societal VI is only moderate because
the numbers affected by an event are generally small.
3.2.3.2. Physiological survival. Physiological needs are
commonly met by consumer use of centralized nancial
services, (and electronic communications) to purchase
goods that have been manufactured at a distance (in
serviced and maintained centralized facilities) and
distributed to retail centres. This approach creates a curiously bi-modal VI; The time-to-consequence from failures to supply this need is of the order of a few days, and
over that time period storage of food and water is quite
feasible implying a low VI. However, if a major supply
failure occurred, many months would be required to
establish a genuine alternative, and hence a high VI is
evaluated for that timeframe.
Consumer nancial services present a very high
vulnerability because consumers store very small amounts
of wealth, consumer-level failure of centralized nancial
systems affect large numbers, and there are no accessible
alternatives. Housing materials are durable and many
alternatives exist so these do not contribute large vulnerability except in short-term, localized cases such (e.g., in the
aftermath of an earthquake). City-scale sewage systems are
common but functional alternatives could be arranged in
a short timeframe, so the VI is low. Food distribution is
dependent on transport fuel, equipment and infrastructure
and transport fuel has a high VI due to lack of alternatives
and limited storage capability. Vulnerability to loss of
electrical energy for cooking is moderately low because
alternatives are accessible. (Gas bottles in short-term,
biomass in longer term). We can therefore assign a low VI
to physiological needs for the short-term, and a high VI for
the longer term.
3.2.3.3. Generational. To have a high probability of species/
generational/genetic survival, needs in addition to the
physiological needs of individuals become signicant: A
minimum breadth of gene-pool is needed, and children
must not only be raised to the age of self-sufciency, but
equipped with the minimum skills and knowledge to
survive and raise their own children. Basic healthcare is
essential to meeting this need and healthcare follows
a very strong law of diminishing returns against effort.

L.J. Robertson / Technology in Society 32 (2010) 342351

Nutrition, basic hygiene, sewage treatment and the avoidance of waterborne and food-borne disease are by far the
largest contributors to societal health. Recognition of this
principle has, for example, allowed Cuba to achieve health
indicators better than many wealthier countries. At this
need-level, basic information-recording is required but
only at the level which can be provided by oral history and
local information sources.
3.2.3.4. Communal. Once the needs for generational/
genetic survival are provided, it is possible for communities, in the commonly accepted denitions of the term, to
develop. Stable communities have needs beyond those of
extended and multi-generational families: Societal health
needs are presently met by centralized heath services for
people, and also for essential animal and plant crops. The
diagnosis and treatment of disease (i.e., where disease
prevention has failed) has a particularly high VI, since the
facilities that actually make original diagnoses, and that
discover and/or design the active ingredients of drugs, are
highly centralized. While stockpiling of limited ranges of
medicines is possible in the short-term, this is not viable for
the longer term, and by denition stockpiling cannot work
for newly emerging conditions. The VI associated with
health failure due to disease, is increased by the very large
numbers that are potentially affected. Perhaps counterintuitively, many medical procedures do not have a high
VI. Procedures such as surgical removal of an appendix
have been carried out by untrained persons under remote
instruction and presumably this principle could be
extended in case of sufciently urgent need. Communication and information needs (for example, weather reports
for shermen, drought predictions for farming, and accumulated wisdom for health workers) also become highly
signicant in this timeframe. Present approaches to
communication are sophisticated yet have high V.I0 s
because the time to access any functional alternative is
long, there are few graceful retreat paths, and large
numbers of people are affected within a short time (e.g.
whole countries internet access affected by poisoned DNS
servers). There are few functional alternatives to present
information storage systems (hard disk storage), due to lack
of standardization and lack of graceful retreat paths
however the time-to-depletion (MTBF) is comparatively
long. Most current communication and information storage
facilities require low-voltage DC electricity which presents a moderate vulnerability at present due to the number
of people affected by reticulated power failures, lack of
long-term storage technologies, and the low uptake of
accessible alternatives. Equipment and facility maintenance needs (e.g. for food production) become signicant
in the timeframe associated with this need-level, and show
vulnerability associated with the lack of capacity for
replacement/refurbishment of components and infrastructure. The capacity to measure, sense and explore the
external world (in its most general sense) has a low VI:
Most of the requisite technology is durable and much
equipment capable of supporting cognition can be created
under a decentralized model (home-made microscopes
and telescopes), hence the time to access alternatives is not
high compared to the MTBF.

347

3.2.3.5. Developmental/extension. Our developmental need

is currently (partially) met by our capability to marshal
physical and intellectual resources from a wide range of
sources, and to funnel or concentrate these to a point of
application, thus allowing goals that are beyond the resources
of the individual or small group. Present approaches to meet
the need for development or extension have a high VI due to:

a) The high VI of present nancial systems, and

b) Our monarchical and hierarchical polity, whereby we
depend on centralized systems of (commercial/contractual
and criminal) law and associated enforcement capabilities.
Without an underlying contractual or legal framework, the
process of concentrating and dispersed resources is difcult.
c) Dependence on vulnerable information storage and
transmission modes.
3.2.4. Evaluation of Vulnerability Indices
The terms in the VI are not simple to evaluate, and
different assumptions will produce ranges of values.
Nevertheless by assigning H to VIs over a million, L to
values below one thousand and M to others, distinctions
are stable across a range of assumptions.
The (coarse) VI evaluations, associated with the each
functional need are listed in Table 2.
3.2.5. Notes on VI evaluations
Some general observations on the VI evaluations
include:
a) Specialized GOODS generally do not have high VI
values, since their MTBF is long compared to the timeto-source-alternatives. To quote but one example, the
microprocessors in the Voyager spacecraft have functioned for 30 years in a harsh environment this
timeframe is long compared to the construction time
for an RCA 1802 fabrication plant. Specialized goods
only cause high VIs when there is a low level of standardization, and no graceful retreat capability.
b) Long supply chains for services and consumables cause
the highest VI values because the depletion time for
consumer reserves is short compared to time required
to access alternatives.
c) Multi-level common factors (personal health, energy,
information, and communications) cause high VIs.
d) The process of de-centralizing (distributing) goods and
services has a mirror image the process of accumulating and re-centralizing nance. Centralized nancial
systems have a very high VI.
3.3. Principles for robustness
Reviewing the effects of each term in the VI, shows that
robustness may be increased, and vulnerability decreased,
by any of the following approaches:
a) Partitioning the risk, to reduce scaling factors.

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L.J. Robertson / Technology in Society 32 (2010) 342351

Table 2
Technology specication and assessment.
Functional specication of
capability, to meet need

VI

Illustrative technologies, capable

of meeting functional specications

Many available

Physiological
Collect and sterilize water within a days

Various water treatment technologies

Safety
Immediately available means
of surviving natural disasters,
and preventing injury due to assault

Tech. Status

Hygienically deal with sewage, after a few days

Several, including composting toilet

Continuous production of nutritionally adequate food locally,

on small-scale, within a few days.

Algaculture, others

Capability to retain body warmth, within hours

Many available

Capability to make/obtain shelter within days

Many available

Means by which individual can securely hold personal wealth,

and transparently carry out transactions, without centralized
banking services

No technology meets this requirement at present

Access usable energy (cooking and heating) within days/weeks.

Functionally this implies technology for energy storage
and concentration.

Biomass energy is simple, but is not versatile,

and has long access times.

Energy for currently available ICEs

Macro-algae oil, H2 on demand

Generational continuity & community

Avoidance of widespread death from
quick-onset disease (pandemic)

Risk partitioning

Diagnose human,
food-animal & crop illness

Lab-on-chip

Create treatments for human, food-animal & crop illness

General-purpose chemical synthesis.

Enable competent but untrained local practitioner

to carry out simple procedures (childbirth,
broken-bone setting??)

Durable, robust information storage

General-purpose manufacturing capability (probably

for limited number of materials)

General-purpose manufacturing

Local capability for creating (limited range of)

metals, plastics

General-purpose materials creation

Local capacity (skills, equipment, materials) to maintain

basic infrastructure (pipes, roads), perhaps with
reduced functionality

Many available

Fully developed ad-hoc, peer-to-peer communication system.

Robust communications

7?

DC power for communications, information

Seebeck effect, solar PV etc

Long-term high-density storage media

Durable, robust information storage

Graceful retreat alternatives to exiting information

storage systems

See above

Creation/maintenance of basic sensor (telescope, microscope,

barometer, clock)

Knowledge of manufacture requirements,

general-purpose manufacturing

Macro-algae oil

Robust and scalable polity

(See above communication)

Long-term high-density storage media

Local capacity to create transport fuel, maintain basic
infrastructure
Developmental
Need is for a scalable polity that would allow ad-hoc groups
to assemble for a purpose, to marshal resources for a goal,
regulate their activities in a pre-agreed manner, and then
to disband amicably.
Ad-hoc, peer-to-peer communication system.

L.J. Robertson / Technology in Society 32 (2010) 342351

b) Raising the accessibility of alternatives. Where a product

has many processing steps and each has a proprietary
intermediate product, access to alternative suppliers at
intermediate production points is denied. Conversely,
when all of the intermediate processing steps have wellstandardized and openly-specied intermediate products, alternatives are possible at each intermediate stage.
The most important approach to improving the accessibility of alternatives is by promoting standardization of
intermediate products. This concept could be rened
mathematically, however a descriptive approach is
sufcient for this paper.
c) Bringing production of services and consumables
(which have small or no storage capability) close to the
point of consumption, and bringing storage capacity for
those goods/consumables as close as possible to the
point of need. In practice this means both selecting
technologies that make local storage possible, and
applying effort to developing alternative technologies
for cases where signicant storage is presently not
practical.
d) Enabling scalable, ad-hoc networks and association
models, and avoiding rigid dendritic service models.
This is an issue that is related as much to sociology as to
technology, yet is a key to the development of a lesscentralized society.
Modifying the value of factors of a VI will reduce the VI,
but this may actually have limited signicance if the VI is
low initially! Since the VI of a complete need-level (see
Section 3.1) corresponds to the highest VI for each of the
needs in that level, it is clear that rate-of-progress towards
robustness will be improved if the highest-evaluated VIs
for each need-level are addressed rst.

3.4. Technology trajectories

Ambitious goals are normally achieved by carefully
dening outcomes, then systematically addressing
components. In this case, goals are only loosely dened and
it is enough to suggest some initial trajectories rather
than propose a roadmap.
3.4.1. Technology characteristics linked to robustness
Having dened societal needs functionally, and
described both current vulnerabilities and general
approaches to increasing robustness, it is now possible to
consider some examples that illustrate how functional
qualities (specications) of a technology improve supply
robustness for the user. Table 2 provides some illustrative
examples It is likely that time and experience will suggest
alternatives and improvements, but the illustrations may
be useful.
Technologies that would increase self-reliance and
promote individual survivability exist, but are commonly
restricted by problematic security concerns; similarly,
defensive technologies are readily available, and objections
tend to be based on emotive and political arguments rather
than statistics [12]. Algaculture is an example of a technology that addresses specic vulnerabilities (long supply

349

chains and long production lead-times) associated with

current approaches to both food and liquid fuel supply [13]
Oil-rich algae strains are already under development, but
food strain development has far to go. Other illustrative
qualities of this technology include its relatively simple
technology needs, scalability, exibility and the very short
(days) grow/harvest cycle. Another exemplar (illustrating
durability, simplicity and scalability) energy source is the
H2 on demand approach, in which water is metered onto
a reactive metal (Li, Ca, etc) [14] to release hydrogen. A
sustainable cycle is achieved by chemical reduction of the
metal oxide. At present there is no robust means by which
individuals can securely hold personal wealth and transparently carry out transactions, without centralized
banking services: this is a major vulnerability for which
technological solutions are not presently available. Smallscale, semi-automated chromatography and diagnostic
capabilities such as the lab on a chip technologies [15]
already illustrate the general feasibility of decentralized
and general-purpose analysis/diagnostic capabilities.
General-purpose and semi-automated synthesis facilities
for bio-actives (pharmaceutical or avoring) have also been
described: by using automated sequencing of basic chemical unit-operations [16]. Ranges of synthesis are possible,
and illustrate the realistic possibility of a decentralized and
highly exible synthesis capability.
At a larger scale, small and general-purpose
manufacturing facilities (Micro factories [17]) have been
proposed and general-purpose machining facilities using
either abrasion or Electro-discharge Machining [18]
already exist. These examples, plus concepts such as
Rapid Prototyping, micro-foundries, and solar pyrometallurgy [19], illustrate the realistic possibility of
decentralized and exible fabrication. Durable information
storage, in the form of rock carving, has existed for
millennia, but approaches such as that proposed by the
Rosetta project [20] illustrate the practicality of dense,
large-scale and durable information storage for true
robustness a corresponding means of storing information is
required, as is a means of reading such information back
into data processing equipment. The components for
robust, decentralized communication systems are available
now, and some approaches [21] can be illustrated. A robust
and fully decentralized communication system seems
a realistic goal. Some general principles for the development of a decentralized and scalable polity exist (e.g.. codes
of human rights, rules for arbitration, and templates for
contracts), but there are huge obstacles to implementation.
3.4.2. Technology development priorities
Table 2 links an assessment of vulnerability to the
current status of technology options for each need-level.
The table lacks detail and offers illustrative examples only,
but the correlation is presented in the hope of illustrating
priorities for technology development. Technology status is
characterized as:

1. Scientic principles unknown (e.g. anti-gravity)

2. Scientic principles known
3. Technology required to create components is known

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L.J. Robertson / Technology in Society 32 (2010) 342351

4. Proof-of-concept examples exist

5. Components have been created at laboratory-scale
6. Laboratory demonstrations of assembled components
have been made
7. Prototype available
8. Consumer-usable examples exist, with infrastructure for
repair and modication
4. Discussion and conclusion
4.1. Risks and predictions
Risk is commonly associated with probability, but
when the timeframe is sufciently long the outworking of
a vulnerability is very likely to occur sometime and
so this paper has taken a different approach to that of
Taleb [22] and Posner [23]. A detailed risk analysis may
certainly rene the admittedly coarse assessments presented here.

4.2. Feasibility and desirability

The exercise of indicating technology directions
(trajectories), has shown that for many capabilities that
would increase robustness, technological solutions are
either in existence or are foreseeable. Other capabilities
such as short lead-time food production, are foreseeable,
but are not close to being available. For other cases, high
vulnerability and lack of technologically mature solutions suggests both a trajectory, and a long path to the
target!
4.2.1. Counter-intuitive conclusions
While some technologies (integrated circuit manufacture) are only feasible at highly specialized facilities, such
technologies are generally capable of multi-decade durability so it seems reasonable to suggest that these could
be re-created using ad-hoc associations, without creating
vulnerabilities.
Transport is inextricably linked to centralization so as
production is decentralized the vulnerability associated
with transport (and fuel etc issues) decreases.

4.3. Drivers and moderators

That societies have historically collapsed is beyond
doubt and all who have studied such collapses have asked
could our society collapse? It seems presumptuous to
assume that todays society has evolved past the point
where collapse is possible.
Some unpalatable possibilities include:
a) A reversion to anarchic groups living at the Personal- or
Generational-survival level,
b) The vulnerability arising from un-restrained centralization and specialization of production
c) The multitude of constraints that are commonly
considered necessary to avoid the consequences of
vulnerability.

These are the drivers for change: the moderator is the

observation that centralized and specialized production
offers high efciency and low cost and has not collapsed yet!

4.4. Technology directions (trajectories) towards robustness

Since many aspects of society currently involve centralized sources of supply, a change from centralized to distributed society requires not one, but many changes. For any
change to occur, the technical opportunity for change must
exist, barriers must be removed, and a trigger is usually also
needed. This paper makes an initial attempt to correlate
present vulnerabilities with the status of corresponding
technical capabilities: together these suggest technology
trajectories that have reasonable potential. Amongst the
high priority needs identied, there are those for which:
a) Technical solutions are actually available, but there has
not been a sufcient trigger for change
b) Technical solutions are not available, but could practically become available with signicant effort: an ad-hoc
centralization of effort, solely to develop a long-life
technology, incurs very little long-term vulnerability
c) Technical solutions seem possible in principle, but
would face intransigent barriers: examples would
include the need for a scalable polity and a decentralized capability to securely hold personal wealth.

4.5. Stepping stones and transitional stages

Even if all the technical and non-technical barriers could
be overcome, any societal change requires a transition
pathway if it is to be feasible. Such a topic could occupy
a large volume of text, and is not the main topic of this
paper. If the relative VI levels and technology categorizations are reviewed, these do suggest that a number of
individually feasible stages could be used as a transitional
pathway to increased robustness; these stepping stones
are tentatively identied as:
a) Functional alternatives to all essential consumables
become available locally
b) Services are converted from central to local/ad-hoc
approaches, using highly standardized protocols/
specications
c) General-purpose capabilities for research, fabrication,
diagnosis and formulation are decentralized.
d) Maintenance aspects of infrastructure and equipment
are decentralized
e) Mechanisms are develop and rened, to allow ad-hoc
centralization without long-term dependencies.
f) Durable alternatives for long-life components are
designed.
Strong incentives to reduce vulnerability already exist:
by suggesting at least some useful technological approaches,
this paper may perhaps stimulate progress towards the
state of more robust and decentralized sophistication.

L.J. Robertson / Technology in Society 32 (2010) 342351

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Lindsay Robertson
The author is a professional engineer, in the mechanical discipline.
Much of his career had been involved with energy, fuel, power and related
topics, and has included time spent in research establishments, in design
ofces and consulting practices as well as on construction sites! His
personal interests are quite wide (some are listed on my website), and
include communication systems and electronics, plus other elds at
progressively more amateur levels. The author has lived in New Zealand
much of his life, though with periods of work in UK and elsewhere. He has
taken a strong interest in the institutions that serve the engineering
profession. Though he took a qualication in computing technology, he
would freely confess that only limited professional use has been made of
that qualication.