Judgments and Decisions: Nature or Nurture?

Syllabus, Psy 4374 -501 -- Spring, 2005

This course deals with human inferences, judgments, decisions, and the processes by
which we arrive at them. It will focus on the fact that our social judgments are not based
on the laws of probability and chance, but on other cognitive processes that may have
shortcomings in important inferential tasks. We will also see that these processes, while
imperfect, are ecologically efficient, systematic, and importantly, very predictable.
Research in the field of judgments and decisions attracts the attention of an important
audience; lawyers, advertisers, doctors, businessmen, politicians, and others who see
applications as diverse as devising legal arguments; choosing corporate strategies;
campaign strategies; and even in conducting foreign affairs.
The issues need not be so lofty. People make simple judgments and evaluations of you
and me that impact our careers and business success. The strategies used to make these
decisions are the same strategies the lay scientist uses when assessing the larger,
ostensibly more important issues: e.g., who should be president? Which car is the best?
What house should they buy? Who should they marry?
We will study the various heuristics and strategies commonly used to make judgments
of all kinds. We will also review a few historical cases where nations and history have
been changed when an incorrect judgmental strategy was used.

Instructor: William K. Spence, Ph.D.

Class Material:
Textbook: “Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases”
Daniel Kahneman, Paul Slovic, and Amos Tversky.
Handout: “Judgments and Decisions: Nature or Nurture?” William K. Spence, Ph.D.
Other: Timely, relevant articles on current events from newspapers, etc.

Grading: A: 91-100+
B: 81-90
C: 71-80
D: 61-70
F: 60 and below

Class specifics:
Thursdays 7:00PM – 9:45PM
Location Main Campus, GR- 4.204
First class January 13, 2005
Mid-term exam March 3, 2005
Spring Break March 7-12, 2005
Last full class April 21, 2005
Final exam April 28, 2005

Final grade will be based on the following activities:

Activity Points
Mid-term (see note) 30 Approximately ½ narrative, ½ multiple choice
Class participation 10 Attendance, Assignments, Project
Quizzes 20 4 quizzes @ 5 points each; multiple choice.
Final exam (see note) 40 or 35 Comprehensive: ½ narrative, ½ multiple choice
P&L component 00 or 05 Terminology, matching style with appropriate
power

Note: Narrative exam questions will be on terminology and concepts that are part of the assignments given
in class. They will take the following form:
1. “Describe the ‘Representativeness Heuristic.’ Give an example of its use.”

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 Class # Date: Subject

1. 01-13-05 Lecture: Exercises and Overview

Assignment for 01-20-05: Read handout, “Judgments and Decisions:
Nature or Nurture?” Study Concepts and definitions, pp. 19-20

2. 01-20-05 Lecture & discussion: Review assignment, discuss examples, concepts,

and definitions. Assignment for 01-27-05: Read in Khaneman, Slovic
& Tversky: Introduction, Chapter 1 ( ~18 pp)
Prepare for short quiz on Concepts and Definitions from handout (pp.
19-20.)

3. 01-27-05 Quiz # 1.
Lecture and discussion: Review class assignment, discuss examples.
Assignment for 02-03-05: Read in Khaneman, Slovic & Tversky:
Chapter 2 (~ 9 pp) + chapter 3 (~ 16 pp) = (total 25 pp)
Bring an example of “representativeness” from a
publication of any kind (newspaper, magazine, etc.)

4. 02-03-05 Lecture & discussion: Review assignment, discuss examples.

Assignment for 02-10-05: Read in Khaneman, Slovic & Tversky:
Chapter 6 (~ 15 pp) + chapter 8 (~ 12 pp) = (total ~ 27 pp)
Concentrate on the “fundamental attribution error,” “belief
perseveration,” and “self-fulfilling” hypotheses. Bring an example of
“representativeness” from a publication of any kind (newspaper,
magazine, etc.)
-------------------------------------------------------- review progress and schedule ------------------------------
5. 02-10-05 Lecture & discussion: Review assignment, discuss examples.
Assignment for 02-17-05: Read in Khaneman, Slovic & Tversky:
Chapter 9 (~ 24 pp)
Concentrate on the experiments described. Be prepared to discuss.
Bring an example that illustrates how “availability” is used.

6. 02-17-05 Quiz # 2.
Lecture & discussion: Review assignment, discuss examples.
Assignment for 02-24-05: To be determined. (Potential … outline of
project )
Bring an example of “availability,” and “retrieval bias”
from a publication of any kind (newspaper, magazine, TV adv, etc.)

7. 02-24-05 Lecture & discussion: Review assignment, discuss examples. Review

items that could be on Mid-Term exam. Q & A session if necessary.
Assignment for 03-03-05: Prepare for Mid-Term Exam

8. 03-03-05 Mid-Term Exam:

Lecture & discussion as time allows: Discuss examples not discussed
during previous classes.
Assignment for 03-17-05. Chapter 11 (~16 pp). Enjoy Spring Break.

9. 03-07è03-12 SPRING BREAK

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10. 03-17-05 Review Mid-Term Exam.
Lecture & discussion as time allows: Discuss examples not discussed
during previous classes.
Assignment for 03-24-05: Chapter 12 (11 pp).

11. 03-24-05 Lecture & discussion: Review assignment, discuss examples.

Assignment for 03-31-05: Read in Khaneman, Slovic & Tversky:
Chapters 13 (11 pp) and 14 (8 pp). (total ~19 pp)
Using the information in this chapter, give an example of
“uphill” and “downhill” scenarios. Bring an example.

12. 03-31-05 Quiz # 3.

Lecture & discussion: Review assignment, discuss examples.
Assignment for 04-07-05: Read in Khaneman, Slovic & Tversky:
Chapter 16 (8 pp) & 18 (18 pp). (total ~ 26 pp)

13 04-07-05 Lecture & discussion: Review assignment, discuss examples.

Assignment for 04-14-05: Read in Khaneman, Slovic & Tversky:
Chapters 20 (7 pp) & 23 (17 pp). (total ~ 24 pp)

14. 04-14-05 Quiz # 4.

Lecture & discussion: Review assignment, discuss examples.
Assignment for 04-21-05: Read in Khaneman, Slovic & Tversky:
Chapters 29 (6 pp) & 33 (25 pp). (total ~ 31 pp)

15. 04-21-05 Lecture & discussion: Review assignment, discuss examples

Course review: Review of significant concepts covered during the
semester. Review of format and topics that might be on Final Exam.
Q & A.
Assignment for 04-28-05: Prepare for final exam

16. 04-28-05 Final Exam: Comprehensive.

Based on concepts included in Quizzes and Mid Term Exam.

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