Private Wealth Management Research

11 December 2014

A member of the Kiatnakin Phatra Financial Group

Phatra Wealth Daily Note

Global Markets: Stock market selloff on lower oil
demand forecast; Brent fell below $65; China
selloff on Tuesday
n

US stocks lost more than 1% on Wednesday as another big

drop in oil prices hammered energy shares after OPEC cut its
forecast on 2015 demand for crude.

Brent crude fell below $65 for the first time since 2009.

Chinas stocks, currency and corporate bonds suffered their

largest tumbles in years Tuesday after Beijing took fresh
steps to rein in growing risks in the countrys debt-laden
financial system.

Local Markets: Minimum wage to stay put,

Minister defends less-steep retail oil price cuts,
Airports predict surge in traffic
n

The Energy Minister has defended the decision not to cut

%Chg
-1.5%
-1.6%
-1.7%
-0.5%

%YTD
5.8%
9.6%
12.1%
-3.7%

EU STOXX600
JP Nikkei
HK Hang Seng

115.6
17,412.6
23,524.5

-0.4%
-2.2%
0.2%

3.1%
6.9%
0.9%

414.8
1,698.4
115.6
958.7
466.2

-1.3%
-1.4%
-0.4%
-0.7%
-0.3%

1.5%
2.2%
3.1%
-4.4%
-0.4%

MSCI
MSCI
MSCI
MSCI
MSCI

ACWI
WORLD
Europe
EM
AsiaPac ex Japan

SET Index

Last

%Chg

%YTD

SET Index

1,559.6

-1.0%

20.1%

SET100 Index

2,304.9

-1.3%

19.2%

SET50 Index

1,041.0

-1.4%

17.8%

Cumulative Net Buy

Foreigners

Last

1M

YTD

(3,544)

5,675

(10,549)

Local institutions

1,190

2,035

55,006

Retail investors

3,593 (10,064)

(60,627)

prices.

Proprietary

AoT sees a strong rebound in passenger traffic through its

Exchange Rate

improved tourism outlook.

Local Market Wrap: SET 1,559.56 -15.99pts -1.01% Value
US$1,679mn. The market was weak from the outset, in part

(1,239)

2,354

16,170
%YTD

Last

%Chg

EURUSD

1.2448

0.6%

-9.4%

USDJPY

117.82

-1.6%

11.9%

USDCNY

6.1755

-0.2%

2.0%

USDTHB

32.77

-0.2%

0.2%

on follow-through selling from Monday afternoon but more

Commodities

Last

%Chg

%YTD

importantly Energy-3.97% continued to be sold off with

WTI (USD/bl)

60.9

-4.5%

-38.1%

bargain hunters getting overtaken early on.

Brent (USD/bl)

64.2

-3.9%

-39.3%

1,226.3

-0.4%

2.1%

Investment Ideas
n

Last
17,533.2
2,026.1
4,684.0
6,500.0

retail oil prices in Thailand at the same pace as global crude

airports in the year to September 2015, due mainly to the

US Dow Jones
US S&P 500
US Nasdaq
UK FTSE 100

The tripartite Wage Committee has resolved to maintain the

daily minimum wage nationwide at Bt300.

Key Global Index

Airlines Lower fuel prices cause us to lift sectors 2015

core earnings forecast by 34% and our price objectives by
39% on average. We upgrade NOK (Buy/12-month PO Bt20)
and AAV (Buy/12-month PO Bt5.60) to Buy from

Gold (USD/tr oz)

Phatra Macro Research Team &

Phatra PWM Research Analysts

Underperform but reiterate Underperform on THAI

Pipat Luengnaruemitchai
pipat@phatrasecurities.com

(Underperform/12-month PO Bt11) given 70% hedging and

Porntip Tantasuwan

headwinds from JPY & EUR weakness. NOK is our top pick
given negligible hedging, tailwinds from weakening JPY/THB
and undemanding valuations.

porntip@phatrasecurities.com
Flemming Clausen
flemming@phatrasecurities.com
Taweesak Paopanlop
taweesak@phatrasecurities.com

Issued by Phatra Securities Public Company Limited ("Phatra"). Phatra does and seeks to do business with companies covered or mentioned in its
research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that Phatra may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Refer to important disclosures on page 12.

Private Wealth Management Research

11 December 2014
A member of the Kiatnakin Phatra Financial Group

Global Market Highlights

Stocks down as energy falls further (Reuters,
CNBC)
US stocks lost more than 1% on Wednesday as another big
drop in oil prices hammered energy shares after OPEC cut its
forecast on 2015 demand for crude. The Dow fell 1.5%,
S&P500 fell 1.6%. Falling oil prices have added to worries
about global demand and raised concerns about earnings for
energy companies,with year-end tax selling putting additional
pressure on the group. The S&P energy sector is now down
14.7% for 2014.
European shares closed largely lower, continuing a declining
trend as Greek political fears and slumping oil prices weigh.
The pan-European Euro Stoxx 600 index fell 0.3%, with the
U.K.'s FTSE 100 index and the French CAC closing down 0.4%
and 0.8%.
Yield on 10-year US Treasury note fell 4bps to 2.16% after a
strong debt auction.
Asian stocks dropped, led by Japanese shares, and the dollar
weakened after oils collapse triggered the biggest loss for
U.S. stocks since October.

Oil Plunge Rips Through Markets as Investors

Seek Bottom (Bloomberg)
Oils collapse is rippling through financial markets, broadening
a selloff in stocks beyond energy companies and leaving
investors with few havens as assets from metals to corporate
debt sink. Brent crude fell below $65 for the first time since
2009 as OPEC cut its forecast for 2015 demand, raising
concern over the strength of the global economy and leaving
investors contemplating when oils plunge will reach a bottom.
The selloff sent the MSCI All-Country World Index to its
biggest drop in two months. Traders are almost certain that
Venezuela will teeter into default as bonds plunge to a 16year low and the cost of default protection soars to a record.
A measure of risk in the U.S. junk-bond market rose the most
in two months. Copper fell 1.2% and gold slipped 0.2%.
Investors sought relief in Treasuries as 30-year bond yields
fell to a seven-week low, and the yen capped its biggest
three-day gain versus the dollar in more than a year.
OPEC lowered its projection for 2015 demand for crude by
300,000bbl/day to 28.9mn/day, the lowest level in 12 years
on surging U.S. shale supplies and lower demand estimates
amid signs of a slowing growth in economies from China to
Europe. That's about 1.15mn a day less than the group's
pumped last month, and the 30mn bbl target.

Saudi: "Why should we cut production? Why?"

(Reuters, Bloomberg)
Asked whether he thought it would be necessary to reduce oil
production prior to OPEC's next scheduled meeting in June,
Saudi Oil Minister Naimi responded: "Why should we cut
production? Why?". Naimi reiterated that the market must be
left to balance itself, a shift from longstanding Saudi policy of
acting as a swing supplier. Oil prices fell more than $10 since
the 27 Nov OPEC meeting.
Naimi said Saudi produced 9.6-9.7mn bpd in Nov. "That is not
going to change unless other customers come and say they
want more oil," he said. US crude inventories rose to the
highest level since started in 1982. Energy shares in S&P 500
fell 3.3%.
Crude prices now are below what 10 out of OPECs 12
members need for their annual budgets to break even. North
American High Yield Index, a CDS benchmark, rose 14.9bps to
371bps.

China Stocks, Currency and Corporate Bonds

Fall (WSJ)
Chinas stocks, currency and corporate bonds suffered their
largest tumbles in years Tuesday after Beijing took fresh steps
to rein in growing risks in the countrys debt-laden financial
system. The selloff started in the bond market, as traders
rushed to sell and raise cash after a regulator banned
investors from using low-grade corporate debt as collateral to
borrow cash. The Shanghai index slumped 5.4% to record its
biggest fall since 2009.
The Tuesday selloff was triggered when Chinas securities
clearing house said late Monday it raised the threshold for
corporate bonds qualifying as collateral for repurchase
agreements, or repos, which are short-term loans with
maturity spanning from overnight to 182 days. These are
used as a key channel of short-term funding for bond
investors. The new rule also applies to bonds issued by local
govt financing vehicles that arent explicitly covered by local
authorities budgets.
The combined outstanding value of repos on the countrys two
exchanges has surpassed 700bn yuan (US$113.47bn).
According to estimates from Shenyin Wanguo Securities, the
total value of corporate bonds disqualified as repo collateral
under the new rule exceeds 1.25trn yuan, or 60% of all
outstanding corporate bonds listed on Chinas two stock
exchanges.
The move to cut down on the use of this risky debt is central
to Beijings structural reforms aimed at sustaining economic
growth over the long term by reducing reliance on state
investment and exports and increasing the role of
consumption. That policy shift, though, could hold back
expansion in the short term if it chokes off credit to industries
such as steel and cement, where problems with overcapacity
are widespread.

Private Wealth Management Research

11 December 2014
A member of the Kiatnakin Phatra Financial Group

Budget Deficit in U.S. Narrows as Employment

Growth Accelerates (Bloomberg)

median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of 21 economists was

for a $64 billion deficit.

The budget deficit in the U.S narrowed more than economists

projected in November from a year earlier, Treasury
Department figures showed, as rising employment helped
boost receipts and spending fell.

Stronger hiring has helped to shrink the countrys annual

deficit from a record $1.42 trillion in 2009, and economists
expect the decline to continue in the fiscal year that started
Oct. 1. The Treasury in October said the shortfall in the 12
months ended Sept. 30 was $483 billion, or 2.8 percent of
gross domestic product, and the Congressional Budget Office
said in August that it expects the deficit to shrink to 2.6
percent of GDP this fiscal year.

Outlays exceeded receipts by $56.8 billion last month,

compared with a $135.2 billion shortfall a year earlier, the
department said in a report released in Washington. The

Private Wealth Management Research

11 December 2014
A member of the Kiatnakin Phatra Financial Group

Market Wrap
SET 1,559.56 -15.99pts -1.01% Value US$1,679mn
Net Buy/Sell Frgn-US$107mn Inst+US$36mn PropUS$38mn Ret+US$109mn
The market was weak from the outset, in part on followthrough selling from Monday afternoon but more
importantly Energy-3.97% continued to be sold off with
bargain hunters getting overtaken early on.
The sector was the most active and accounted for the
majority of the fall of the index.
PTT-6%, PTTEP-3.94%, PTTGC-3.88% alone accounted for -10
points of the -16 points lost on Tuesday.
Nothing new, but the lower oil goes the bigger the
inventory loss and potential losses on impairments.

Top Gainers

Last

RS

17.30

+4.2%

+143.7%

ITD

7.80

+3.3%

+101.0%

UV

9.85

+2.6%

+42.8%

30.00

+2.6%

+240.9%

167.00

+2.1%

+36.3%

GUNKUL
EGCO

Banks+0.07% managed to stay in the positive, but

Telecoms-0.49% gave up gains and Property-0.52% and
Construction Materials-0.84% which were softer during the
day took a hit into the close.
Contractors+0.64% got a late boost in the afternoon after
the government announced the award of four contracts
worth Bt28.5bn or US$864mn for the extension of the Dark
Green mass transit line.
The Cabinet passed new stimulus measures but they are
seen as modest policies at best and had no impact on the
market.

Last

PSL

15.40

-7.8%

-27.7%

PTT

345.00

-6.0%

+20.6%

BH

1,580

1576.11

1575.55

Day High

Previous Close
1,570

%YTD

+62.4%

142.50

-5.0%

ROBINS

44.00

-4.9%

-8.3%

SPCG

26.25

-4.5%

+38.2%

PTT

Last

%Chg

%YTD

345.00

-6.0%

+20.6%

TRUE

12.70

+1.6%

+91.6%

PTTGC

55.75

-3.9%

-29.4%

ADVANC

245.00

-2.0%

+22.8%

KBANK

242.00

+1.3%

+55.1%

Sectoral performance
SET Index
SET Energy & Utilities
SET Banks
SET ICT

Last

%Chg

%YTD

1,559.6

-1.0%

20.1%

19,795.7

-3.8%

3.4%

618.5

0.1%

35.4%

234.6

-0.5%

23.0%

SET Commerce

29,170.0

-0.7%

10.7%

SET Food & Bev

12,380.4

-0.7%

13.3%

308.1

-0.5%

31.7%

SET Constr Mat

12,222.1

-0.8%

21.1%

SET Petrochem

801.8

-2.6%

-18.5%

SET Property

Chart: SET Intraday movement

%Chg

%YTD

Top Losers

Most Active

In a repeat of Monday, the market sold off over the last 30

minutes led down by futures.

%Chg

SET Health Care

4,242.9

-1.5%

54.7%

SET Transportation

229.3

-0.4%

41.6%

SET Property Fund

156.7

-0.5%

-0.2%

1559.56
1,560

Close
1556.5
Day Low

1,550

16:29

15:59

15:29

14:59

14:29

13:59

12:00

11:30

11:00

10:30

10:00

1,540

Source: Bloomberg

Private Wealth Management Research

11 December 2014
A member of the Kiatnakin Phatra Financial Group

Todays news
Economy: Wage committee maintains Bt300
rate (Nation)
The tripartite Wage Committee has resolved to maintain the
daily minimum wage nationwide at Bt300, Permanent
Secretary for Labour Ministry Nakhon Silapa-archa, the
chairman of the panel, said Wednesday. He said the Bt300
rate will remain enforced throughout next year because the
Wage Committee has analyzed the information and found that
the living cost has not increased.

Politics: Academics push for intellectual

freedom (Nation)
201 academics from universities across the country called on
the Council of University Presidents of Thailand (CUPT) to
ensure and protect intellectual freedom that they said was
being threatened under current military rule. They submitted
an open letter stating that students and university lecturers
had witnessed unprecedented threats to their academic
freedom even as the country is undertaking reforms which
needed freedom of expression in order to succeed.

Economy: Officials to meet on Dawei's initial

phase (Bangkok Post)
Officials from Myanmar and Thailand will meet next month to
approve the framework of the initial phase of the delayed
Dawei development project. Arkhom Termpitayapaisith,
secretary-general of the National Economic and Social
Development Board, said the two countries had already set up
policy committees to oversee the scheme. Deputy Prime
Minister MR Pridiyathorn Devakula will chair the Thai
committee, which is scheduled to meet its Myanmar
counterparts in Bangkok from Jan 7-9. The development
project in Dawei, a Myanmar city situated 350 kilometres
west of Bangkok, features a number of megaproject
investments including deep-sea ports and a special economic
zone (SEZ). In October, the Thai and Myanmar governments
agreed to revitalise the project by letting Thai firms play a
bigger role in the much-delayed SEZ when Prime Minister
Prayut Chan-o-cha paid an official visit to the country.

Economy: Narongchai defends small price cuts

at the petrol pumps (Bangkok Post)
Energy Minister Narongchai Akrasanee has defended the
decision not to cut retail oil prices in Thailand at the same
pace as the decrease in global crude prices. "We have
essentially maintained the levy collection for the state Oil

Fund from some types of fuels because the fund remains in

need of funding to be used for price interventions when oil
prices fluctuate," he said. The Oil Fund has a duty to subsidise
biofuels such as gasohol and biodiesel to promote the use of
alternative fuels in serving the government's policy to cut
reliance on imported crude oil. Global oil prices had fallen by
40% to US$66 a barrel yesterday from about $105 five
months ago, but retail oil prices in Thailand decreased by only
18% over the period. Mr Narongchai said the problem
stemmed from long-time subsidies of liquefied petroleum gas
(LPG), compressed natural gas (CNG) and diesel that caused
distortions to supply and demand. "Some motorists enjoyed
prices cheaper than the actual fuel cost for a very long time at
the expense of others. Now they still pay gas bills cheaper
than before but they cannot be as low as the actual cost
because we won't let anyone pay energy costs for you
through cross-subsidies," he said.

Petrochem: IVL upbeat about 2015 margins

(Bangkok Post)
Aloke Lohia, chief executive of SET-listed Indorama Ventures
Plc (IVL), one of the world's largest integrated polyester
product makers, says the company is sustainable thanks to its
strong principles, as polymers is a cyclical business. The
company decided to go global early on since it needed to
ramp up output. In 2003 IVL expanded to North America and
in 2006 to Europe. "In terms of finance we try to plan for
three years in advance with conservative projections to
ensure sufficient liquidity," Mr Lohia said at the Forbes Asia
forum. He said advance planning ensured a strong balance
sheet even when IVL wanted to acquire new assets. "As a
downstream chemical company, we have the advantage of a
lower oil price. Our margins are getting better, so we're
optimistic about 2015," Mr Lohia said.

Aviation: Airports predict surge in traffic

(Bangkok Post)
Airports of Thailand Plc (AoT) sees a strong rebound in
passenger traffic through its airports in the year to September
2015, due mainly to the improved tourism outlook. The statecontrolled company, which operates six airports including
Bangkok's Suvarnabhumi, projects a 12% jump in combined
passenger throughput during October 2014 to September
2015 to reach 98.1 million, up from 87.6 million. That will be
a sharp rise from the marginal 1.67% growth seen in the last
fiscal year, caused by the country's political turmoil in the
first half of 2014. Poolsiri Virojanapa, senior executive vicepresident for accounting and finance at AoT, singled out postcoup political stability for restoring passenger traffic growth
to the previous annual double-digit level.

Private Wealth Management Research

11 December 2014
A member of the Kiatnakin Phatra Financial Group

Stock Comments
Airlines NOK is most levered, but most lagged
airline stock to oil dive
NOK TB is now our top pick among Thai airlines
An over 30% drop in oil price over the last three months,
different hedging profiles and FX exposures have created
investment opportunities in Thai airline stocks and we have
lifted the sectors 2015 earnings by 34% and raised our price
objectives by 39% on average. We upgrade Nok Airlines (NOK)
and Asia Aviation (AAV) to Buy from Underperform. NOK (Bt20
PO) is the most leveraged Thai airline and our top pick given its
negligible hedging, tailwinds from weakening JPYTHB to support
NokScoot launch and an undemanding valuation of 7x 2015E
PER.

Oil price should remain depressed for some time

The decision by OPEC to withdraw from its role as the swing
producer of oil and let the market set the price is likely to result
in an extended period of low fuel prices. Our jet fuel price
assumptions are lowered from $120 per barrel for 2015/16 to
$85/90 in line with the Brent forward curve, plus a $10 crack
spread.

Selective bright spots on short-haul as hedgings are unequal

Airlines with the lightest hedging profile will benefit most. NOK
is the least-hedged at only 5% for 2015 followed by 7.5% for
AAV, versus 60% for Bangkok Airways and 70% for THAI.
Despite our concerns over a short-haul capacity glut, NOK and
AAVs limited hedging will give them significant cost advantages
to further explore down the demand curve, attract volume and
drive their earnings turnaround in 2015.

Weakening JPYTHB swings in favor of NOK, bad for THAI

NokScoot is in a very strong position to launch flights to North
Asia, in our view. In addition to its cost advantage derived from
a zero hedging profile, the falling JPYTHB (-12% in three
months) is a major tailwind as it expects Thailands outbound
sales to account for 70-80% of passengers. Conversely, THAIs
most profitable market (Japanese routes) generates 70% of
revenue in JPY. Together with a weakening EURTHB, we expect
THAIs yield to come under pressure even before taking the
endless growth of LCCs and Middle Eastern airlines into account.

Rating, POs and earnings upgraded for NOK and AAV

We upgrade NOK to Buy from Underperform and increase our
PO to Bt20 from Bt12.7 having increased core EPS by 60-90%
over 2015-16. We upgrade AAV to Buy from Underperform and
increase PO to Bt5.6 from Bt3.8 having lifted 2015-16 core EPS
by 25-44%. We believe NOK has greater upside than AAV given
its discounted valuation, direct benefit from weakening JPYTHB
and beaten-up price performance since IPO. We reiterate our
Underperform rating on THAI with Bt11 PO (up from Bt9.8,
largely on higher book value from larger-than-expected FX
gains). Its high hedging profile is widening cost disadvantage
while the weakening JPYTHB and EURTHB will further pressure
its pricing and keep restructuring hopes at bay.

IVL - Back on the HVA expansion road (Buy/12month PO Bt27.40)

Fourth acquisition for IVL this year as it acquires PF Asia
As part of IVLs continued strategy to enhance its presence in
high-value-added (HVA) segments, IVL has announced it will
acquire Performance Fibers Asia (PF Asia) from an affiliate of
Sun Capital Partners, Inc. The transaction is to include all its
Asian manufacturing operations and the right to continue using
the name Performance Fibers. This is IVLs fourth acquisition
following its purchase of PHP Fibers (Filament yarns), SASA
(Polyester & PET) and Artenius (PET) earlier this year. IVL
expects to complete the deal within 1Q15.

Growing HVA auto applications

PF Asia produces premium polyester tire cord fabric (TCF) which
is used as reinforcing materials for automotive tires. Located in
China, PF Asia possesses an annual capacity of 41,000 tons of
polyester TCF and 48,000 tons of polyester tire cord yarn with
a 17% market share in China and 8% share of Asia capacity. The
company is the second-largest producer in China and the thirdlargest in Asia.

Debt financing with reasonable pricing

The investment is estimated at US$200mn, translating into an
EV/EBITDA of 6x. The valuation is in line with IVLs investment
guideline of 5-7x of EV/EBITDA. IVL issued perpetual
debentures worth Bt15bn in October 2014 to finance all
potential acquisitions, lowering its net D/E to 0.8x (after the
debenture issuance). With an attractive EBITDA margin of 16%,
we expect PF Asia to add around US$23mn of EBITDA in 2015
(assuming the deal will be consummated by end-1Q15). We also
estimate that its NPAT will be boosted by US$9mn or 4% of our
2015E NPAT forecast following the acquisition. We see the
acquisition in a positive light.

Private Wealth Management Research

11 December 2014
A member of the Kiatnakin Phatra Financial Group

Market Summary
% Change

Global Indices
Dow Jones
S&P 500
Nasdaq
FTSE 100
STOXX600
Nikkei
Hang Seng

Last
17,533.2
2,026.1
4,684.0
6,500.0
115.6
17,412.6
23,524.5

1D
-1.5%
-1.6%
-1.7%
-0.5%
-0.4%
-2.2%
0.2%

1W
-2.1%
-2.3%
-1.9%
-3.2%
-3.0%
-1.7%
0.4%

1M
-0.5%
-0.6%
0.7%
-1.7%
0.3%
3.8%
-0.9%

3M
2.8%
1.4%
2.0%
-4.4%
-1.8%
9.4%
-4.6%

YTD
5.8%
9.6%
12.1%
-3.7%
3.1%
6.9%
0.9%

1Y
9.8%
12.4%
15.4%
-0.4%
7.5%
11.5%
-0.9%

414.8
1,698.4
115.6
958.7
466.2
Last
1,559.6
2,304.9
1,041.0

-1.3%
-1.4%
-0.4%
-0.7%
-0.3%
1D
-1.0%
-1.3%
-1.4%

-2.4%
-2.4%
-3.0%
-2.8%
-1.0%
1W
-2.2%
-2.6%
-2.6%

-1.3%
-0.9%
0.3%
-3.9%
-3.0%
1M
-0.5%
-0.1%
-0.2%

-3.1%
-2.2%
-1.8%
-10.4%
-7.2%
3M
-1.3%
-1.5%
-1.4%

1.5%
2.2%
3.1%
-4.4%
-0.4%
YTD
20.1%
19.2%
17.8%

4.0%
5.2%
7.5%
-5.3%
-0.7%
1Y
14.1%
12.5%
11.4%

SET Energy & Utilities

SET Banks
SET ICT

19,795.7
618.5
234.6

-3.8%
0.1%
-0.5%

-5.1%
-1.1%
0.5%

-8.7%
1.2%
5.7%

-8.7%
-0.5%
6.8%

3.4%
35.4%
23.0%

-0.7%
24.3%
12.1%

SET Commerce
SET Food & Beverages
SET Property
SET Constr Mat
SET Petrochem
SET Health Care
SET Transportation
SET Property Fund
Currency
EURUSD
USDJPY
USDCNY
USDTHB
Commodities
WTI (USD/bl)
Brent (USD/bl)
Gold (USD/tr oz)

29,170.0
12,380.4
308.1
12,222.1
801.8
4,242.9
229.3
156.7
Last
1.2448
117.82
6.1755
32.77
Last
60.94
64.24
1,226.31

-0.7%
-0.7%
-0.5%
-0.8%
-2.6%
-1.5%
-0.4%
-0.5%
1D
0.6%
-1.6%
-0.2%
-0.2%
1D
-4.5%
-3.9%
-0.4%

-3.1%
-1.2%
-3.2%
-1.3%
-7.9%
-2.4%
-1.1%
-1.1%
1W
1.1%
-1.6%
0.4%
-0.3%
1W
-9.6%
-8.1%
1.4%

-0.3%
2.4%
-3.1%
3.6%
-8.4%
-0.6%
8.6%
-2.0%
1M
0.2%
2.6%
0.9%
-0.2%
1M
-21.3%
-22.6%
6.5%

-6.3%
-0.6%
-1.0%
2.8%
-13.2%
-1.1%
6.3%
-3.1%
3M
-3.7%
10.0%
0.7%
1.8%
3M
-34.4%
-35.9%
-1.2%

10.7%
13.3%
31.7%
21.1%
-18.5%
54.7%
41.6%
-0.2%
YTD
-9.4%
11.9%
2.0%
0.2%
YTD
-38.1%
-39.3%
2.1%

6.6%
17.4%
21.4%
17.4%
-21.0%
45.6%
29.4%
0.0%
1Y
-9.5%
14.6%
1.7%
2.2%
1Y
-38.1%
-39.2%
-2.8%

Treasury Yield
Last
US 2Y Yield
0.57
US 5Y Yield
1.56
US 10Y Yield
2.16
TH 2Y Yield
2.05
TH 5Y Yield
2.45
TH 10Y Yield
2.89
Cumulative Net Buy (THBmn)
Foreigners
Local institutions
Retail investors
Proprietary
Cumulative Foreign Flows (US$mn)
Thailand
Indonesia
Korea
Taiwan
Philippines

1D
-4
-6
-5
+0
-1
-2
1D
(3,544)
1,190
3,593
(1,239)
1D
(108)
(4)
(99)
(352)
6

1W
+1
-4
-12
+1
+3
-2
1W
(2,995)
2,885
2,692
(2,583)
1W
(91)
(133)
484
(359)
(139)

3M
+1
-23
-39
-36
-61
-68
3M
5,808
17,560
(25,941)
2,573
3M
178
(620)
(764)
107
(64)

YTD
+19
-18
-86
-57
-96
-109
YTD
(9,954)
50,397
(53,981)
13,538
YTD
(282)
4,262
8,311
13,663
1,246

1Y
+27
+11
-64
-61
-107
-117
1Y
(31,664)
59,327
(37,658)
9,996
1Y
(957)
3,915
7,397
14,714
1,130

MSCI ACWI
MSCI World
MSCI Europe
MSCI EM
MSCI AsiaPac ex Japan
SET
SET Index
SET100 Index
SET50 Index

Change in bps

1M
+3
-8
-20
-14
-13
-20
1M
5,675
2,035
(10,064)
2,354
1M
173
311
2,466
1,669
481

Private Wealth Management Research

11 December 2014
A member of the Kiatnakin Phatra Financial Group

Top 20 Short Sale as of 9 December 2014

Securities
TRUE
PTT
KBANK
RS
CK
ADVANC
SCB
PTTEP
TUF
TTA
PTTGC
TOP
BBL
ITD
AOT
INTUCH
SCC
KKP
DELTA
ROBINS

Volume (Shares)
8,930,000
278,100
212,400
2,282,900
1,310,000
127,700
155,100
207,000
249,100
1,134,400
250,300
313,800
56,900
1,439,000
38,600
140,200
19,500
197,700
102,700
151,200

Turnover (Baht)
112,992,000.00
97,531,800.00
51,747,500.00
39,475,000.00
33,741,000.00
31,779,300.00
29,531,000.00
25,491,500.00
23,378,900.00
21,737,400.00
14,094,575.00
13,929,750.00
11,326,200.00
11,098,350.00
11,060,100.00
10,830,450.00
9,112,000.00
7,990,225.00
7,851,200.00
6,692,400.00

%Short Sale Volume

Average Price
Closing Price
Comparing with Auto
of Short Sale
(Baht)
Matching
(Baht)
3.75%
2.03%
3.36%
2.72%
2.36%
1.86%
2.04%
1.96%
5.27%
4.31%
0.70%
4.05%
1.54%
1.37%
1.63%
1.10%
0.96%
10.31%
7.41%
2.98%

12.70
345.00
242.00
17.30
26.00
245.00
190.00
122.00
92.25
18.80
55.75
44.00
199.50
7.80
285.00
76.75
462.00
43.00
77.00
44.00

12.65
350.71
243.63
17.29
25.76
248.86
190.40
123.15
93.85
19.16
56.31
44.39
199.05
7.71
286.53
77.25
467.28
40.42
76.45
44.26

Source: SET
*Remark - Excluding a short sale by a member that is a participating dealer or market maker of the ETF investment units for the company's account, for
the purpose of realizing a profit from a price spread (arbitrage), or for the purpose of stabilizing liquidity, as the case may be.

Private Wealth Management Research

11 December 2014
A member of the Kiatnakin Phatra Financial Group

Dec 2014
Monday

Tuesday

Wednesday

Thursday

Friday

WHAPF

CITY

XD

Bt0.16

M-AAA

XD

Bt0.193

IRC

XD

Bt0.6269

NPP

XR

3:1

TPOLY

XB

10:1

XD

Bt0.181

10

11

12

17

18

19

25

26

@Bt1.0

15

16
AOT

XD

Bt3.40

22

23

24

29

30

31

Source: SET

Private Wealth Management Research

11 December 2014
A member of the Kiatnakin Phatra Financial Group

List of management who submitted the changes in securities holding report

Company
JSP
LIVE
MC
MC
MBAX
MBAX
NMG-W3
PTTGC
PTTGC
TRUBB
TRUBB
TRUBB
CEN
CEN
FIRE
MEGA
NMG
NMG-W3
SIRI
TIES
TUF
TUF
ERW
ERW
TRC
CENTEL
CENTEL
CPN
CPN
CPN
CPN
CPN

Name of Management
YONGSIL RUNGCHIWA
SANTIDIS DISKUL
PRATANA MONGKOLKUL
SUNEE SERIPANU
PISUTH LERTVILAI
SURACHAI ATSAWAKAEWMONGKHON
KAEMAKORN VACHIRAVARAKARN
SUPATTANAPONG PUNMEECHAOW
SUPATTANAPONG PUNMEECHAOW
VORATHEP WONGSASUTHIKUL
VORATHEP WONGSASUTHIKUL
VORATHEP WONGSASUTHIKUL
WUTICHAI LEENABANCHONG
WUTICHAI LEENABANCHONG
VARINKAN TERAUMRANON
VIVEK DHAWAN
KAEMAKORN VACHIRAVARAKARN
KAEMAKORN VACHIRAVARAKARN
TASANIN MAHA-AMATAYATIBODEE
SUCHAI STAPORNCHAIYASIT
CHENG NIRUTTINANON
CHENG NIRUTTINANON
PAKINEE PRAMTADE
PANIDA THEPKANJANA
CHAVENG RESRIKITTI
THIRAKIATI CHIRATHIVAT
THIRAYUTH CHIRATHIVAT
SUTHIKIATI CHIRATHIVAT
SUTHIKIATI CHIRATHIVAT
SUTHIKIATI CHIRATHIVAT
SUTHIKIATI CHIRATHIVAT
SUTHIKIATI CHIRATHIVAT

Relationship Types
Reporter
Reporter
Reporter
Reporter
Reporter
Reporter
Reporter
Reporter
Reporter
Reporter
Reporter
Reporter
Reporter
Reporter
Reporter
Reporter
Reporter
Reporter
Reporter
Reporter
Reporter
Reporter
Reporter
Spouse
Reporter
Reporter
Reporter
Reporter
Reporter
Reporter
Reporter
Reporter

C
C
C
C
C
C
W
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
W
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C

Transaction
Date

Amount

04/12/2014
09/12/2014
08/12/2014
08/12/2014
04/12/2014
04/12/2014
02/12/2014
08/12/2014
08/12/2014
09/12/2014
09/12/2014
09/12/2014
03/12/2014
04/12/2014
03/12/2014
08/12/2014
03/12/2014
03/12/2014
08/12/2014
04/12/2014
04/12/2014
08/12/2014
08/12/2014
08/12/2014
03/12/2014
04/12/2014
04/12/2014
04/12/2014
04/12/2014
04/12/2014
04/12/2014
04/12/2014

500,000
385,000,000
100,000
500,000
100,000
100,000
500,000
10,000
10,000
50,000
50,000
50,000
1,552,800
1,783,400
80,000
8,000,000
5,000,000
500,000
50,000
500,000
387,800
689,965
100,000
50,000
40,000
2,486,994
2,486,994
12,162,900
12,162,900
12,162,900
12,162,900
12,162,900

Outstanding
Avg.
%
Price (Bt)
0.01
6.27
0.01
0.06
0.08
0.08
0.03
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.25
0.28
0.02
0.92
0.15
0.03
0.00
0.11
0.03
0.06
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.18
0.18
0.27
0.27
0.27
0.27
0.27

2.38
0.31
14.40
14.48
3.84
3.84
0.84
58.75
58.50
1.77
1.79
1.80
3.88
3.74
4.78
16.50
1.70
0.90
1.93
1.38
91.13
94.08
5.10
5.15
4.65
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00

The
methods
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell
Receive
Receive
Transfer
Transfer
Transfer
Transfer
Transfer

Source: SET

10

Private Wealth Management Research

11 December 2014
A member of the Kiatnakin Phatra Financial Group

Daily bond reports

Thai govt bond yields
Tenor(Years)
1Y
2Y
3Y
4Y
5Y
6Y
7Y
8Y
9Y
10Y

Thai Govt Bond

1.99
2.05
2.21
2.38
2.45
2.61
2.65
2.73
2.84
2.89

Change (bps)
0.00
0.00
-1.00
0.00
-1.00
-1.00
-2.00
-2.00
-2.00
-2.00

Thai Government Bond Curve

Swap (MID)
1.835
1.915
2.045
2.165
2.280
2.390
2.505
2.590
2.680
2.760

Change (bps)
-1.80
-3.80
-4.30
-5.50
-5.30
1.20
-3.50
2.50
4.00
-3.50

Bond Swap (bps)

-15.50
-13.50
-16.50
-21.50
-17.00
-22.00
-14.50
-14.00
-16.00
-13.00

US Treasury Curve

Active Govt. Bond

LB15DA
LB176A
LB196A
LB21DA
LB236A

Tenor
1.01
2.52
4.51
7.03
8.52

Yield
1.951
2.094
2.371
2.653
2.773

Change (bps)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00

Index
6MTHBFIX
6MFDR
MLR
BIBOR

%
1.7804
2.00
6.75
2.28

Source: Bloomberg

Comments
-US Treasury yields collapsed on the uncertainty in Greece, Chinas credit tightening & oil price fall. 10Y US Treasuries lowered 15bps
to be at 2.15% now.
-The total trading value increased by 8%. THB bonds went down a few bps as we still expect buying flows with interest from onshore
& offshore.
-USDTHB is heading south having USDJPY led the FX market. USDTHB is now at 32.77 after being traded in the region of 33.00
during the past few days.
Calendar of Government Debt Securities Action in December 2014
Mon 8
CB15312B - 25,000
CB15611A - 25,000
TB15107A - 15,000
TB15610A - 10,000

Tue 9

Wed 10

LB296A - 9,000

Thu 11

Fri 12

BOT168A - 30,000

Total
114,000

Source : www.ibond.thaibma.or.th

Total Trading Value 831,769.76mn

Buy
11,673.80
2,472.66
2,685.28

Asset Mgnt. Companies*

Non-Dealer License*
Foreign Companies
Remarks: Data excludes FX Bond

Sell
11,802.21
0.00
3,571.58

Net
-128.41
2,472.66
-886.30

* Top 2 most active investors, Outright Trading TTM > 1Y

Source: Bloomberg, ThaiBMA

11

Private Wealth Management Research

11 December 2014
A member of the Kiatnakin Phatra Financial Group

Special Disclosures
Phatra Securities Public Company Limited (Phatra) does and seeks to do business with companies covered or mentioned in its
research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that Phatra may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity
of this research report.
Phatra Securities Public Company Limited ("Phatra") under its proprietary trading desk, may, from time to time, issue derivative
warrants that have underlying securities contained or mentioned in this research report. Should Phatra be the issuer of the derivative
warrants, Phatra may act as the market maker for such derivative warrants. As a result, investors should be aware that Phatra may
have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this research report.
Copyright 2014 Phatra Securities Public Company Limited. All rights reserved. Any unauthorized use or disclosure is prohibited.
This report has been prepared based on, among other things, fundamental research reports of Phatra Securities Public Company
Limited (Phatra). It is issued by Private Wealth Management Research team and is not a publication of Phatra Research Group
(Phatra Research). The information herein was obtained from various sources: we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.
Certain parts of this report are taken from previous research reports issued by Phatra and/or Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith
Incorporated (MLPF&S). Please see full research reports for more details.
Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes an offer, or an invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any
securities or any options, futures or other derivatives related to such securities ("related investments"). Officers of Phatra or one of
its affiliates may have a financial interest in securities or the issuer(s) or in related investments.
This report is prepared for general circulation and is circulated for general information only. It does not have regard to the specific
investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this report. Investors
should seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities or investment strategies discussed or
recommended in this report and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realized. Investors
should note that income from such securities, if any, may fluctuate and that each security's price or value may rise or fall.
Accordingly, investors may receive back less than originally invested. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future
performance.
Foreign currency rates of exchange may adversely affect the value, price or income of any security or financial instrument
mentioned in this report. Investors in such securities and instruments, including ADRs, effectively assume currency risk.
Investment principal on bonds can be eroded depending on sale price or market price. In addition, there are bonds on which
investment principal can be eroded due to changes in redemption amounts. Care is required when investing in such instruments.

12

Private Wealth Management Research

11 December 2014
A member of the Kiatnakin Phatra Financial Group

Corporate Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies 2013

Disclaimer
The disclosure of the survey result of the Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) regarding corporate governance is
made pursuant to the policy of the Office of the Securities and Exchange Commission. The survey of the IOD is based on the
information of a company listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand and the Market of Alternative Investment disclosed to the public
and able to be accessed by a general public investor. The result, therefore, is from the perspective of a third party. It is not an
evaluation of operation and is not based on inside information.
The survey result is as of the data appearing in the Corporate Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies. As a result, the
survey result may be changed after that date. Phatra Securities Public Company Limited ("Phatra") does not confirm nor certify the
accuracy of such survey result. In addition, the list only includes companies under Phatras coverage except those specified.

Companies with Excellent CG Scoring by alphabetical order under Phatras Coverage

Advanced Info Service

Airports of Thailand

Banpu

Bangkok Bank

Bangchak Petroleum

BTS Group Holdings

LPN Property
Development

Charoen Pokphand Foods

Hemaraj Land and

Development

Total Access
Communication

Electricity Generating

The Erawan Group

Central Pattana

INTUCH

IRPC

Indorama Ventures

Kasikornbank

Krung Thai Bank

Ch. Karnchang

MCOT

Minor International

Preuksa Real Estate

PTT

PTT Exploration

PTT Global Chemical

Quality Houses

Ratchaburi Electricity
Generating

Robinson Department
Store

Thai Airways
International

Siam Cement

Supalai

Thanachart Capital

Siam Commercial Bank

Thaicom

Tisco Bank

Thai Military Bank

Thai Oil

True Corporation

Thai Vegetable Oil

Companies with Very Good CG Scoring by alphabetical order under Phatras Coverage
Amata Corporation

BEC World

Bumrungrad Hospital

Big C Supercenter

Berli Jucker

Central Plaza Hotel

CP All

ESSO (Thailand)

GFPT

Glow Energy

Home Product Center

Land & Houses

Major Cineplex Group

Siam City Cement

Sansiri

Asian Property
Development

Sino Thai Engineering

and Construction

Ticon Industrial
Connection

Thai Union Frozen

Product

Companies with Good CG Scoring by alphabetical order under Phatras Coverage

Asia Aviation

Bangkok Chain Hospital

Siam Global House

N/A
Companies without survey result available by alphabetical order under Phatras Coverage
MK Restaurant

Thai Beverage

Bangkok Dusit Medical

Services

Tesco Lotus Retail

Growth Property Fund

BTS Growth Infrastructure

Fund

Nok Airlines

13