Reliability Example
Advances in Maintenance
Engineering
Reliability Block
Diagrams
!
!
Suppose 100 components were put to test.
After a given period of time, and under
specified conditions, 10 of these
components have failed.
What is the reliability R?
R = 90% or 0.9
Dr. Chakib KARA-ZAITRI
Objectives
Cumulative probability of failure
F; Example
! To
define Reliability as a constant.
understand the concept and
practices of Reliability Block
Diagrams (RBD).
! To
!
!
Suppose 100 components were put to test. After
a given period of time, and under specified
conditions, 10 of these components have failed.
What is the probability of failure F?
F = 10% or 0.1
Probability Law
Agenda
!
!
!
!
!
The sum of the probability of success (R)
and the probability of failure (F) is equal to
1.
R = Probability of success
F = Probability of failure
R
Series systems
Parallel system
Series-Parallel systems
MooN Systems
R+F=1
Reliability definition
Reliability Block
Diagrams
Reliability is the probability (proportion or
percentage) that a component fulfils its
required function for a specified period of
time and under specified conditions.
Reliability Block Diagrams.doc
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Reliability Block Diagrams
Series System: Success Logic
In practice, a system can be represented as a
network in which the system components are
connected in:
! Series
! Parallel
! Combination of series and parallel
R1
R2
Which component(s) need to
work for the system to work?
It is very important that the relationship between the system and its network
model be thoroughly understood before considering the analytical techniques
that can be used to evaluate the reliability of these networks
13
Series System: Success
Logic
Success or Failure Logic
! Success Logic
the combination of components which
must work for the system to work
R1
R2
Only one scenario.
Component 1 working
! Failure Logic
the combination of components which
must fail for the system to fail
and
Component 2 working
So what is the probability of success
R?
10
14
Series System: Success
Logic
Series Systems
Components are said to be in series if they
all have to work successfully for the
system to work successfully.
R1
R1
R2
Only one way.
R2
Component 1 working
and
R1: Reliability of component 1
R2: Reliability of component 2.
Component 2 working
R = R1 ....
11
Series System: Success
Logic
15
Series System: Success
Logic
R1
R2
! In
success logic, the probability
of success is calculated,
!i.e.
Only one way.
Component 1 working
and
Component 2 working
R = R1 x ....
12
Reliability Block Diagrams.doc
16
22
Series System: Success
Logic
Series System: Failure Logic
Scenario 2:
R1
Component 1 failed
R2
and
Component 2 working
Only one way.
Component 1 working
and
Component 2 working
F1
R2
R = R1 x R2
17
Series System: Failure
Logic
21
Series System: Failure Logic
Scenario 2:
Component 1 failed
and
In failure logic, the
probability of failure F is
calculated
Component 2 working
F1
R2
Probability of Scenario 2:
P2 = F1 x R2
18
Series System: Failure
Logic
22
Series System: Failure Logic
Scenario 3:
Component 1 failed
Scenario 1:
and
Component 2 failed
Component 1 working
and
Component 2 failed
R1
F2
F1
F2
19
Series System: Failure
Logic
23
Series System: Failure Logic
Scenario 3:
Component 1 failed
Scenario 1:
and
Component 2 failed
Component 1 working
and
Component 2 failed
F1
R1
F2
F2
Probability of scenario 3:
P3 = F1 x F2
Probability of scenario 1 = P1
P1 = R1 x F2
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Reliability Block Diagrams.doc
24
23
Series System: Failure
Logic
R1
Series System: Example (1)
Solution:
R2
R = 0.9510 = 0.5987
Probabilities of the 3 scenarios:
P1: R1 and F2
P2: F1 and R2
P3: F1 and F2
So:
F = P1 + P2 + P3 Or;
F = (R1 x F2) + (F1 x R2) + (F1 x F2)
The system reliability decreases very rapidly
as the number of series components
increases.
25
Series System: Failure Logic
29
Series System: Example (2)
F = (R1 x F2) + (F1 x R2) + (F1 x F2)
So;
F = R1 x (1 - R2) + (1 - R1) x R2 + (1 - R1) x (1 - R2)
Or;
A system requires 200 identical components
in series. If the overall reliability must not be
less than 0.99, what is the minimum
component reliability ?
F = R1 - (R1 x R2) + R2 - (R1 x R2) + 1 - R1 - R2 +
(R1 x R2)
So;
F = 1 - (R1 x R2)
R = R1 x R2
Or
26
Series System: Hint
Best to use
30
Series System: Example (2)
Solution:
success logic.
0.99 = R200
R = 0.991/200 = 0.99995 !
General Formula for n components in series
is:
R = R1 x R2 x R3 x .... Rn
27
Series System: Example (1)
31
Parallel System
Components are said to be in parallel if
only one component has to work
successfully for the system to work
successfully.
A system consists of 10 identical
components all of which must work
for the system to work.
What is the system reliability if each
component has reliability 0.95.
R1
R2
R1: Reliability of component 1
R2: Reliability of component 2.
28
Reliability Block Diagrams.doc
32
24
Parallel System: Success
Logic
Parallel System
R1
scenario 2:
R2
Component 1 failed
and Component 2 working
F1
Is it best to use success or
failure logic ?
R2
Probability of scenario 2:
P2 = F1 x R2
33
Parallel System: Success
Logic
37
Parallel System: Success
Logic
scenario 1:
scenario 3:
Component 1 working
and Component 2 failed
Component 1 working
and Component 2 working
R1
R1
F2
R2
Probability of scenario 3:
P3 = R1 x R2
34
38
Parallel System: Success
Logic
Parallel System: Success
Logic
scenario 1:
scenarios (3) :
P1: R1 and F2
P2: F1 and R2
P3: R1 and R2
So:
R = P1 + P2 + P3 Or;
F = (R1 x F2) + (F1 x R2) + (R1 x R2)
Component 1 working
and Component 2 failed
R1
F2
Probability of scenario 1 = P1
P1 = R1 x .....
35
Parallel System: Success
Logic
39
Parallel System: Success
Logic (7)
scenario 1:
R = (R1 x F2) + (F1 x R2) + (R1 x R2)
So;
R = R1 x (1 - R2) + (1 - R1) x R2 + (R1 x R2)
Or;
R = R1 - (R1 x R2) + R2 - (R1 x R2) + (R1 x R2)
So;
Component 1 working
and Component 2 failed
R1
F2
R = R1 + R2 - (R1 x R2)
Probability of scenario 1:
P1 = R1 x F2
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Reliability Block Diagrams.doc
40
25
Parallel System: Failure
Logic
Parallel System: Example (1)
Cont.
It is much easier to use the following
formula:
F1
R1
F2
R2
scenarios ( 1 only) :
F1 and F2
So:
F = F1 x F2
R=1-F
R3
R = 1 - (1 - R1) x (1 - R2) x (1 - R3)
41
Parallel System: Failure
Logic
45
Parallel system: Example (2)
F = F1 x F2
F = (1 - R1) x (1 - R2)
F = 1 - R1 - R2 + (R1 x R2)
But;
R=1-F
So;
R = R1 + R2 - (R1 x R2)
A system is designed to have a reliability
of 0.999 using components having an
individual reliability of 0.7.
What is the minimum number of
components required ?
42
Parallel System: Hint
Best to use
46
Parallel system: Example (2)
Solution:
failure logic.
0.999
= 1 - (1 - 0.7)n
0.999 -1 = - (0.3)n
ln(0.001) = n.{ln(0.3)}
n = 5.74
General Formula for n components in
parallel is:
Caution:
F = F1 x F2 x F3 x .... Fn
and
R = 1- F
R(5 components) = 0.9975
R(6 components) = 0.9993
43
Parallel System: Example
(1)
47
Parallel system: Example (3)
Consider 3 components in parallel;
R1
R2
R3
Suppose a system is made of a number of
components in parallel, and that the single
component reliability is 0.8.
Evaluate the effect on the overall system
reliability by increasing the number of
components in parallel.
F = F1 x F2 x F3
R = R1 + R2 + R3 - R1.R2 - R1.R3 - R2.R3 +
R1.R2.R3
44
Reliability Block Diagrams.doc
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26
Parallel system: Example (3)
Cont.
Series - Parallel; A
A
No. Of Components System reliability
1
0.8
0.96
0.992
0.9984
0.99968
0.99994
RA = R2
49
Increasing the number of
components in parallel
53
Series - Parallel; B
B
1.05
1
0.95
0.9
0.85
RB = 1 - (1 - R)2 = 2R - R2
0.8
0.75
1
N u m b er o f co m p o n en ts in p arallel
50
Series - Parallel Example
54
Series - Parallel; ABC
A
3
1
2
C
RAB = R2 (2R - R2)
RAB = 2R3 - R4
RS = 1 - {1- R}{1 - (2R3 - R4)}
RS = 0.92288
Component Reliability = 0.8
51
55
Partially redundant systems
MooN Configuration
Series - Parallel Example
B
3
1
MooN: M out of N
2
4
Or;
At least M components out of N components
must work successfully for the system to
work successfully
Component Reliability = 0.8
52
Reliability Block Diagrams.doc
56
27
2oo3 system: State
enumeration
Reliability of a MooN system
A
2oo3
N
= N R iF N i
MooN
i
i= M
So for 2oo3 system;
2 1
3 0
= 3 R F + 3R F
R
2oo3 2
3
Success or failure
logic ?
57
2oo3 system:
State enumeration
A
2oo3
1. A B C
2. A B C
3. A B C
4. A B C
5. A B C
6. A B C
7. A B C
8. A B C
61
2oo5 System
RA RB RC
FA RB RC
RA FB RC
RA RB FC
FA FB RC
FA RB FC
RA FB FC
FA FB FC
Calculate the reliability of a 2oo5 system; i.e.
at least two components must work
successfully for the system to work
successfully.
Suppose component reliability is 0.8.
58
2oo3 system:
State enumeration
62
2oo5 system: Success
Logic
Possible states
A
2oo3
1. A B C
2. A B C
3. A B C
4. A B C
5. A B C
6. A B C
7. A B C
8. A B C
RA RB RC
FA RB RC
RA FB RC
RA RB FC
FA FB RC
FA RB FC
RA FB FC
FA FB FC
In success logic, this is equivalent to:
2 work, or 3 work, or 4 work or 5 work.
( a total of 4 ways)
59
5 2 3 5 3 2 5 4 1 5 5 0
R
R F + R F + R F + RF
2oo5 = 2
3
4
5
R
10R2F 3+10R3F 2 +5R4F1+ R5
=
2oo5
R
099328
.
2oo5 =
Reliability of a 2oo3 system
2oo5 system: Failure Logic
R = RA RB RC + FA RB RC + RA FB RC + RA RB FC
In Failure logic, this is equivalent to:
4 fail or 5 fail (a total of 2 ways only)
If
RA = RB = RC = R
then FA = FB = FC = F
So;
R2oo3 = R3 + 3 R2F
R2oo3 = 3R2 - 2R3
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Reliability Block Diagrams.doc
63
5 4 1 5 5 0
F
F R + F R
4oo5 = 4
5
F
5F 4R1+ F5
=
4oo5
.
F
000672
4oo5 =
R
099328
.
=
2oo5
64
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Reliability Block Diagrams.doc
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