What is Groundhog Day?

Is it scientific or superstition?
A furry little rodent crawls out of its den, is scared by its own shadow, and that
means we'll have six more weeks of winter? Sounds like silly superstition, doesn't
it? But several parts of the Groundhog Day legend do in fact have a basis in
science and careful observation of nature:
Astronomy:
Before calendars came into common use, Europeans divided the year into four
parts, using the Winter Solstice (the shortest day of the year, around December 21),
the Summer Solstice (the longest day, roughly June 21), and the Spring and Fall
Equinoxes (days when night and day are exactly equal, March 21 and September
21) as signposts. The days halfway in-between these four milestones are called
cross-quarter days.
February 2 lies midway between the Winter Solstice and the Spring Equinox.
Some ancient Europeans considered it the first day of spring (a bit early, if you ask
me!) Romans held a purification festival called Februus at this time, to prepare
their fields for planting. (The festival's torchlight parade later evolved into the
Christian feast of Candlemas.) The Celts of Ireland celebrated Imbolc on this day, a
fertility ritual associated with ewes preparing to give birth.
Animal behavior:
Long, long ago, people observed animal behavior for clues to changes in the
weather. The reappearance of hibernating or inactive animals like badgers,
hedgehogs and even bears was a sign of winter's end. When German settlers came
to Pennsylvania in the 1700s, they chose the groundhog as the local harbinger of
spring.

Even today, we watch for animals to indicate the change of seasons. Geese flying
south is a sure sign of fall. In the Midwest and Northeast, we wait for the first robin
of spring. Californians wait for the swallows to return to Capistrano. Ohio
residents know it's spring when the buzzards come back to Hinkley, Ohio.
Meteorology:
Ever notice how bright, clear winter days are often very cold? That's because they
are caused by high pressure systems. Areas of high pressure pull cold air down
from the north. They also sweep away any clouds that might have provided
insulation.
Farmers in ancient Europe noticed this relationship, and developed various legends
and practices around it. Some of the most noteworthy involved February 2, the old
cross-quarter day. An old Scottish poem says:
If Candlemas Day is bright and clear,
There'll be two winters in the year.
Other cultures have similar sayings. Of course, the weather on one particular day
won't determine the weather for the next six weeks. But, in general, if winter has
had a lot of cold, sunny days, one can expect the patternand the chilly weather
to continue.
So, Groundhog Day brings together three things of pre-scientific knowledge.
1. It takes a sign of spring animals emerging from hibernation and a sign
of winter
2. Clear, cold days
3. Combines them with a date that has astronomical significance.
Unfortunately, each of these elements works better as a general rule of thumb than
as a concrete prediction. Put them together in a specific way, and you end up with
a superstition: there's no evidence of winters being any harsher or milder after the
groundhog sees his shadow. However, each of these elements individually is a
testament to ancient people's ability to carefully observe their environment and
recognize patterns which is pretty much what science is all about.
http://www.sciencebuzz.org/blog/science-ofgroundhog-day