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The Uphot

SMARTR FOOTALL

Game Theor Sa Pete Carroll Call at Goal Line

I Defenile
F. 2, 2015

Justin Wolfers

ItsthebiggestmomentinyourN.F.L.coachingcareer:26secondsremainin
theSuperBowl,yourteamis4pointsbehind,youhavetheballjustoneyard
shortoftheendzone,itsseconddown,andyourteamhasarguablythe
N.F.L.sbestrunningback.Whatsyourcall?Runorpass?
HereswhatIwoulddo:Callagametheorist,someonewhospecializesin
thebranchofeconomicsthatanalyzesstrategicinteractions.Gametheoryis
thetoolusedtounderstandhowglobalsuperpowersrespondtoeachother,
howlargecompaniescompetewitheachotherandhowgrandmastersplay
chess.ItalsodescribesthestrategictusslebetweenBillBelichick,thecoachof
theNewEnglandPatriots,andPeteCarroll,thecoachoftheSeattleSeahawks,
whofoundthemselvesfacingdifficultdecisionsinthefinalsecondsof

SundaysSuperBowl.
ThekeyinsightofgametheoryforanN.F.L.coachisthatwhenyouthink
aboutwhatchoiceyoushouldmake,youneedtoalsoconsidertheresponse
fromtheopposingcoach,understandingthatheisalsothinkingstrategically.
Thislineofthinkingsuggeststhatyoushouldnotnecessarilycallarunplay,
evenifyoureblessedwithagreatrunningback.Likewise,itsnotclearthat
youshoulddefinitelypass.Rather,yourchoiceshouldbesomewhatrandom
achoicethatgametheoristscallamixedstrategy.
Thelogicisthatifyoualwayschoosetoruninthissituation,thenyou
maketheopposingcoachsjobtooeasy,ashewillsetadefensiveformation
aimedatstoppingyourrunningback.Forgetguardingthereceivers,Belichick
wouldrespondbypilingplayersbetweenMarshawnLynchandtheendzone.
AsgreatasLynchis,evenhewouldfinditdifficulttorunoverastacked
defensethatwaswaitingforhim.Likewise,iftheSeahawkswouldalways
decidetopassinthissituation,therewouldbelittleneedforthePatriotsto
guardagainsttherun,andsotheirdefensecoulddoubleteamtheeligible
receivers.
Instead,youneedtokeepyouropponentsguessing,andtheonlywayto
dothisistobeunpredictable.Theonlywaytobeunpredictableistobealittle
bitrandom.
Toseewhy,realizethatCarrollandBelichickwereessentiallyplayingthe
footballequivalentofRockPaperScissors.IfCarrollwilldefinitelyplay
scissors,Belichickwillrespondwithrock.TheonlywaytomakeBelichicksjob
hardisforCarrolltomakeitimpossibleforhimtoguesswhathewillplay
next.Andtheonlywaytodothatisforhisstrategytoappearrandom.After
thegame,Carrollsuggestedasmuch:Wewenttothreereceivers,theysentin
theirgoallinepeople.Wehadplentyofdownsandtimeouts.Wereallydidnt
wanttorunagainsttheirgoallinegrouprightthere.
TheanalogybetweenRockPaperScissorsandfootballisclose,butnot
perfect.InRockPaperScissorseachweaponisbothasdestructiveandas
vulnerableastheothertheyeachbeatoneopponent,andarebeatenby
anotherandthissymmetrymeansthatthebeststrategyistoplayeach

alternativewiththesameprobability.Inthefootballcontext,yourrunning
backmaybeabetterweaponthanyourquarterback,andsoanoptimal
strategydoesnotdictatethatyouusethembothwiththesameprobability.
Rather,youchoosetheprobabilitiesinanoptimalmixedstrategysothatthe
payofffromarunningplaywillbethesameasthatfromapass.Thismeans
thatevenwithagreatrunningback,anoptimalstrategysometimesinvolves
passing.Otherwise,yourstarrunningback,alwaysfacingarundefense,may
enduplesseffectivethanalessgreatpasser.
WheneverIhavetaughteconomicsstudentstheideaofplayingamixed
strategy,theyrespondincredulously,becauseitdefiescommonsensetomake
thebiggestdecisionofyourfootballcoachingliferandomly.Itmaydefy
commonsense,butitmakesgoodstrategicsense.
Perhapsyouarelikemystudents,andyouradviceisthatmaybeCarroll
shouldfollowamixedstrategymostofthetime,butnotinthedyingseconds
oftheSuperBowl.Butrealizethatifthiswereanoptimalchoice,Belichick
wouldprobablyfigureitout,andhewouldinstructhisplayerstoguardagainst
therun.Whenmostofthedefendersfocusonlyonstoppingonerunningback,
theyusuallysucceed.
OrperhapsyoubelievethatLynchsstatisticsshowthatheissosuccessful
atbulldozingthroughopponentsthathewouldsucceedevenagainstadefense
setuponlytostoptherun.Idisagree.AkeyreasonthatLynchhasbeenso
successfulisthathiscoachhasbeenplayingamixedstrategyallseason.Lynch
hasaccumulatedimpressivenumbersinpartbecauseopposingdefenseshave
hadtobeconcernedaboutRussellWilsonspassing.AndsoLynchshistoryof
successwhenplayingaspartofamixedstrategysaysnothingabouthow
successfulhewouldbeifhisopponentsknewforsurehiscoachwouldcalla
runningplay.
GametheorypointstothepossibilitythatCarrollsdecisivecallwas
actuallytheresultoffollowingthebestpossiblestrategy,andthatthisisa
strategythatinvolvesanelementofrandomnessinplaycalling.Thisleadsto
theintriguingpossibilitythatifthatfatefulfinalplayweretoberuninadozen
paralleluniverses,witheachcoachcontinuingtoplaythesamemixedstrategy,

theactualplayscalledwoulddiffer,aswouldtheiroutcomes.
Andsothesameteamspursuingthesamestrategiesunderthesame
circumstancesmighthaveyieldedadifferentSuperBowlchampion.
JustinWolfersisaseniorfellowatthePetersonInstituteforInternational
EconomicsandprofessorofeconomicsandpublicpolicyattheUniversityof
Michigan.FollowhimonTwitterat@justinwolfers
TheUpshotprovidesnews,analysisandgraphicsaboutpolitics,policyand
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A version of this article appears in print on February 3, 2015, on page B9 of the New York edition with
the headline: If Decision to Pass Seemed Random, It Was a Good One.

2015 The New York Times Company